With the final days of June ...and the longest day of the year... quickly passing in the rear view mirror, and the road ahead leading right into the heart of the " Season Of The Sun.. " so too do we enter what most consider the best season of the year here in AZ and surrounding areas, Monsoon Season.. That time of year that captivates any ..and everyone who respects and deeply admires the incredible dynamics of a unique place situated right at the edge of the tropics. 'Tis That time of year when a much welcomed, magic wand can be waved across the land ....rapidly transforming otherwise " boring " and thirsty - looking landscapes into hard to forget, lush, and vivid visions of seemingly far away places that are wetter and greener ...if only for just a few months.. ...When everything comes together, just the way we hope it does, that is. ....That time of year when seemingly un- ending, blazing, sun drenched heat can be broken by it's own brute force in unforgettable displays involving two of nature's greatest forces, Water, and Electricity.. When its good, really good, areas outside the arena ( Arena = Core area of the North American Monsoon Region ) that often sit on the sidelines, hoping for -anything- get to experience shared episodes of this incredible gift from the tropics from the comforts of their own backyards ..or a favorite beach.. While no two years are ever alike, ..Tis' the mystery that is this summer season weather pattern, and some years leave everyone with the unpleasant taste of disappointment, when the sun wins out, there is a valuable lifes' -lesson in that disappointment.. Kick back, Relax ..And convince me ..that things will be better, ..next year.. With the first week or so of the season under way ..both ways it is laid out, ..What comes next? ..Are things looking as promising as everyone has suggested, ..for months? ...or are we staring down another year of ...some deg. ... of humbling, ahead.. ? Instead of laying out my thoughts as i have in past years threads on the subject, One can go back to past threads on the subject to research the " nuts n' bolts ", if curious.. I'll just say this.... June 11th - June 25th rainfall via Rainlog.org .. = While not widespread just yet, this isn't a " horrible " look, either.. Anyone well versed in their Monsoon season -ology fully understands ...and accepts, that our summer season rainfall is always a bit random, rarely uniform, esp. during the opening act portion of the season.. That said, Tucson could share some though, lol. Areas across the borderlands, Tucson, and parts of the Rim/ White Mountains / N.E. AZ, UT ..and New Mexico.. saw some activity yesterday as well, though it doesn't seem that data has been included in the current maps yet.. Nice to see some numbers on the board for New Mexico and El Paso already this year too... Some living elsewhere may laugh at these totals but, ..This is how a good season can start here.. It is only June. Typically, Real rains don't start kicking in until after the 4th of July.. Tucson, at the Airport, is already wayy ahead of normal, ..for now.. ( 1.05" to date, vs. the typical .18" - .22" June Avg. ) Still, ..i need some convincing.. As mentioned, season itself has started off right - on - the - mark.. Actually qualifies as the earliest start on record. = a good thing? ..Convince me.. An end of the month check of SSTs, both in the East Pac. and Gulf ( of CA ) = pretty decent. ** See the video at the end for more clues.. < SOTO and NOAA Contour Chart Data > SST Temps.. Northern Gulf of CA. = Redder, the better Current Anomalies.. Not too bad.. A different view of chart 1 Add in the suggested continued warming we should see as we head forward from the quickly developing El Nino ..and ..good odds for what most forecasts have been suggesting.. ..Still, ..Feel free, to convince me. Overall look of factors examined every year, ...that are going to be scrutinized really closely this year.. 1 = ENSO Region.. = Rapidly developing positive ENSO / El Nino phase this year.. Could that be a good ..and not so great... thing? 2 = Suggested Atlantic / Caribbean Basin Hurricane outlook.. = Looking dry / suppressed this year, thanks to said developing El Nino.. How will that impact area #9, via Easterly Wave activity? ..More < or less > moisture from them reaching this side of Mexico? 3 - 7 = Eastern Pacific.. = Supposed to be a pretty active season, though i'm not all that impressed at what i'm seeing so far.. Will it start kicking into gear, as some have suggested, once we get past the 4th of July? ..let alone keep churning thru Aug and September? This factor plays large on how much??? moisture / storm episodes reach California this year.. Want a seat in the arena this year? Pacific needs to get cranking.. 8 = Sierra Madre Occidental.. End of June = Should be kicking into gear, but has been a lackluster " spurt -n' sputter -y " start, so far.. What's going on, why do all the current extended forecasts keep looking dry there? 10 = Southern Plains.. Moisture source that can enhance storm activity here when the upper level flow is right.. Been reasonably wet out there but may dry out as we head into July.. We want the plains to go into a sort of drought at that time, but don't want things to be so dry that all we get is dry air from that region. 11 = Clockwise flow around the 4 - corners / Subtropical High, once it sets up *** ..if it does this year....... Can send us moisture from the Midwest, depending on how the high is set up. *** That said, for the moment at least, the high itself has struggled to lock itself down over the region, thanks in part to a still - active N. Pacific Jet that keeps sending troughs into the Pac. NW, thus knocking down the Subtrop High each time it tries to set up where we would like it to.. Knocked down 4C High = sitting on top of AZ / NM, or to our south.. ='s not a good position for bringing in moisture ..Ala: Disappointment Years, like 2020, 19, 23. EL Nino, the big ones like this year seems to be shaping up to be, can effect the N. Pac Jet, even during the summer, to some deg. at least as it develops. Need to shove all in-bound summer season Pac NW troughiness up into Canada, just a bit more, so the high can unpack it's bags over the 4 corners and get the show going... Will this occur as many are suggesting, as we get past the 4th? ..or is this going to be the big " thumbs down " factor that tries to toss a cold, wet blanket on the entire season ahead? ...All i can say is ..Convince me.. Near term? ..Forecasts are still all over the place /on something mushroom -y.. Bring a good surge of moisture back into the area by ..or just after.. the 5th, only to toss that idea aside for something drier / " can kicked down the road again" kind of forecast, later. Today's 3 -4 week looks ok, but.. It's looked " ok " several times recently ..only to cower in a corner, later.. ..For now, all we can do is ...Kick back, And relax.. Aint' nothing anyone can do to change the weather, despite those who worship weird " beliefs " Though i was hoping to see a wetter end of June than i'm seeing atm, we're on a " decent enough " track thus far, Already had our first duster / snagged the season's first good bolts, a rare, sunrise rainbow ....and... ..as is being repeated by most forecasters, the show really isn't supposed to get cranking until -at least- mid July, ....so.. Regardless, as everyone familiar with it already knows, quite well, Monsoon ..is going to Monsoon, ...regardless of human -esque " hopes n' dreams ". Any worry? ...If we're still coming up dry n' dusty by mid / late August / 4C high is still a ghost, that's probably a sign a whole lot of forecasters are going to have A LOT of explaining to do, lol.. Hopefully that doesn't happen, and we can kick back and enjoy a really good show, all of us, across the region.. ..and all the magic that it brings.. *** Skip on to the last half of the video for thoughts on the forecast.. *** An interesting tidbit embedded within regarding how the flood control district may view " monsoon Season " in the future, too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKtGDp-d2kk ....Ball is in your court Henz, < ....and others > ..Convince me..