HELLO CALIFORNIA! Big storm!

[Palmy]

Well what do we have here. first big storm of the season and it looks like a ton of rain for SF bay. LA looks like it will get in some of the action as well, possible San Diego?

For SF- TUESDAY AND TUESDAY

NIGHT SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND THE STRONGEST WINDS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND IN

THE VALLEYS. IN THE HILLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO

4 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY...WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE SANTA CRUZ

AND NORTHERN SANTA LUCIA RANGE NEAR BIG SUR. LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO

8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA RANGE.

WINDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 MPH ALONG

THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS. GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN SALINAS

VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA VALLEYS WITH THIS STORM.

Saturday 12:15 AM ish...

10 inches for the mountains? up to three for the big cities? Any elevation will likely be more. Oakland hills could see 4-7 inches! And here I think SF gets about 20-23 inches a year! GOOD MORNING EL NINO!

Edited October 10, 2009 by Palmy

[epicure3]

Looks lke the cut-off between tons of rain and a possibility of a few drops is about Santa Barbara. Hmpf.

[PalmGuyWC]

It's been many years since the first storm of the season in the Bay Area has recieved record amounts of rain. If we only get 2 or 3 inches, there will be major flooding. I can only hope that warm weather will follow the rian. I expect major power outages as that usually happens with the first rains of the season. I may be off line for awhile.

Dick

[happ]

Weather nerds like me are following the progress of x-tropical storm Melor by the hour. Seems every model run & every model differ every 6 hours but the probability of significant rainfall is a given somewhere in California [hopefully all the state].

Central California seems likely to be hit hard & damage [flooding\ landslides\ wind] may occur. You guys in the Bay Area may want to tie down small palms.

[KMartin]

And this if for areas in Southern California. . .

PACIFIC STORM ADVISORY

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER AUTHORITY

OCT 10, 2009 - 12:10p

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ...

THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER AUTHORITY HAS ISSUED A PACIFIC DEPRESSION ADVISORY EFFECTIVE NOW ...

SCWXA HAS OFFICIALLY NAMED THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, AHMAD. AHMAD IS CURRENTLY A CATEGORY TWO STORM SYSTEM ON THE SCWXA STORM SCALE, BUT TRENDS TO A HIGHER CATEGORY ARE LIKELY FOR AREAS WEST OF VENTURA.

THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON OCTOBER 8TH, WILL BE REPLACED WITH THIS. OVER LOOKING AT DIFFERENT PRODUCTS, HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE REGION WITH A HIGHER STATUS WATCH. THIS IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL WATCHES, BUT DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL NOT BE UPGRADED IN CERTAIN SPOTS, SO I WILL GO ON WITH WHY AND WHERE.

THERE IS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COASTAL REGIONS. WHILE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL GET THE BEST RAIN WITH THIS, WE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET RAIN AS WELL. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS DEPENDS ON A FEW FACTORS I NEED TO WORK WITH, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RAIN EVENT OVERALL, ESPECIALLY WEST OF LOS ANGELES.

ON MONDAY, AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT WILL HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA. THIS MEANS THAT A DEEPER MARINE LAYER, AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ON MONDAY, STILL, AN UNSETTLED DAY EXPECTED.

THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HIT VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE AND SAN LUIS OBISPO ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL START OFF WEAK, BUT AS LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY ON 60 MPH LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE DAY. THIS POWER IS BRINGING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE ROOF, BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE DYNAMICS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN, GIVEN THE RARE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

FOR AREAS AROUND VENTURA, LOS ANGELES, ORANGE COUNTY, AND THE INLAND EMPIRE, EXPECT THE FRONTAL ZONE TO INTERACT OVER THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ALREADY, RAIN SHOULD BE FALLING ON TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, BUT STEADIER RAINS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, AND INTO WEDNESDAY, AS LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE MOST AVAILABLE.

SAN DIEGO ZONES LOOK TO GET THE WEAKEST OUT OF THE AREA, BUT STILL ,LIGHT RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED DOWN THERE AS WELL WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM, PRE- AND DURING THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE REASON IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF, WITH MOST OF THE LIFTING FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO WEAK, AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH WITH THIS, ABOVE ALL RESORT LEVELS THROUGH THE FRONTAL ZONE PASSAGE. THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT, SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING, RIGHT BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SETS IN. SNOW LEVELS OVER THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS ARE MEASURING 8,500 FEET. ALL LEVELS RISE OVER 10,000 FEET ON TUESDAY AHEAD AND ON THE MAIN FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS NOT HAPPENING ON LARGE AMOUNTS WITH THIS WARM, EL NINO INDUCED RAIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LOOKED AT UNTIL THE 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE THE EVENTS. EL NINO EVENTS USUALLY DO NOT TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM AIR ALOFT, SO WILL LIKELY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR AREAS AROUND LOS ANGELES, HOWEVER AREAS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS + SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY BRING A THUNDER CHANCE FOR VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE TO SAN LUIS OBISPO.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE ZONES AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, EXTENDING UP TO SAN LUIS OBISPO. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THE SURFACE LEVEL DYNAMICS COME, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LOOK GOOD RIGHT NOW TO MENTION. WILL WORK ON IT MORE AS THE DAYS GO ON.

WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH AND LOW DESERTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SINKING AIR PROVIDED IN THIS SYSTEM. IN FACT, AS OF NOW ADVISORY LEVEL MAY BE LIKELY, BUT STRONG DAMAGING WINDS LIKE WE'VE SEEN IN THE PAST MAY NOT HAPPEN DUE TO THE LACK OF ACTUAL SUBSIDENCE (SINKING AIR) DYNAMICS IN THIS. THIS IS A PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, NOT A DRY WINDY EVENT LIKE THE PAST FEW YEARS.

AREAS OF POSSIBLE UPGRADE: WEST OF VENTURA OR SANTA BARBARA. AREAS WHERE THE MOST STRONGEST DYNAMICS FOR RAIN + WIND WILL BE, THE VANDENBERG AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COASTAL ZONES. UPGRADE IS SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY A PACIFIC STORM ADVISORY ON PENDING CATEGORY THREE CONDITIONS.

K. MARTIN

SCWXA - SCWXA.org

[KMartin]

Here's a presenation for you guys in Southern California...

http://www.scwxa.org/presentation/presentation.html

[happ]

Here's a presenation for you guys in Southern California...

http://www.scwxa.org/presentation/presentation.html

Kevin, why are you naming a storm that already has a name? "Melor" [i don't think tropical systems change names unless they change oceans - ie. Caribbean to Pacific].

[KMartin]

Happ, the novelty of the OWS/SCWXA outline is the first to name winter/pacific storms in Southern California. This is how I made my radio and TV debut years ago. To this day, I name, categorize, and keep track of the storm systems during the rainy season from September through Spring.

It is a yearly thing only the SCWXA outline does. If you followed the site for other years, it has been done this way since at least 1999-2000.

Once a storm hits the SCWXA jurisdiction, it gets a name and category and this outline will grow to the public more and more each season, as it has for past years.

I already see people on Facebook saying stuff like "I see clouds ahead of Pacific Storm Ahmad", or "Clear night ahead of "Ahmad". It gives Southern California a "place" in wx, making it more fun.

Edited October 12, 2009 by KMartin

[PalmGuyWC]

The barometer continues to fall as the storm approaches the shores of Calif. It's 29.68 now and the atmosphere feels heavy. It is supposed to hit in the middle of night tonight. Batten down the hatches.

Dick

[KMartin]

You know what, I don't feel good. My head is hurting like I am diving 10 feet in a pool.

[Palmy]

Incredible for October. Even in Oregon, I can see the dark clouds coming in. It's amazing that California is going to get the brunt of the storm, central California IN OCTOBER! They keep increasing the winds on Noaa for my house down in Orinda, just east of the Oakland Hills at about 300 meters high. We have a very old redwood tree, 75 meters high that has about 8 * 8 meters of soil then Cement surrounding it. I hope this isnt the storm it falls in. It would take out 3-4 houses. We are on the top of a ridge also...

Thankfully the ground is dry so i cant imagine that tree coming down.

It has been a very long time since the first storm of the season was this powerful. I cant remember a storm this powerful for the SF bay area... Hope it isn't too windy...

Edited October 13, 2009 by Palmy

[KMartin]

Don't forget New Years, some odd years ago a storm was very powerful there, 100+ mph winds in San Fran.

[Kathryn]

I just saw the forecast on the news this morning. Y'all take care out there.

[John Case]

Solid rain for the past 2 hours. Windy but not excessively so......not like the Hilo mist we get while on vacation....

[bubba]

Kevin, Your ear popping experience reminds me of the effects of low pressure experienced by my Grandfather and many others when the eye of the 1928 Hurricane passed our area. Most people were physically ill resulting from the low pressure.The official barometer reading was around 27 but the gust from the backside of the storm moved the Jupiter Lighthouse 11 inches off it's foundation.

[John Case]

My spa and Koi pond overflowed about 2 pm today. The water level in both rose over 6 inches.....of course the waterfalls helpde, but I think we had well over 3 inches here today...which is more than 15% of out normal rainy season totals......incredible.

Lost a small Ice Cream Banana in the wind (I still have a bunch)....a small Jacaranda trunk was bent by the wind and weight of the leaves. Restaking it tomorrow.

Otherwise, no problems around here that I have seen.

[Palmy]

In orinda 1000 Feet high on ridge...

4.09 inches

Highest sustain wind- 39 MPH

Highest Gust- 62 MPH\

Power still is on since 10:30PM Oct 13...

So far.... There may still be more to go. Perhaps some showery weather.

In Eugene Oregon so far... I have no real weather instrument, but perhaps 0.4 inches. 10-15mph winds.

SF bay got quite a soaking.

Edited October 14, 2009 by Palmy

[Palmy]

I am sorry. That gust was the one in the last hour. There was a 71 MPH gust about 1 hour 22 min ago on the ridge.

[Palmy]

Some rain totals around the bay area, NOAA

"MANY PLACES EXCEEDED THE ONE-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SET BY THE COLUMBUS

DAY STORM OF 1962. THE RAINFALL TODAY IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO...

2.49 INCHES...BEAT THE PREVIOUS RECORD HELD BY THE STORM IN 1962

WHICH WAS 1.80 INCHES. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN VERY

IMPRESSIVE OVER THE AREA WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY

MOUNTAINS AND 6-10 INCHES IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE GREATEST

RAIN AMOUNTS WERE IN THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS WITH MINING RIDGE

RECEIVING 18.74 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS."

[PalmGuyWC]

It rained constantly for 12 hours in Walnut Creek, and I recieved exactly 4 inches. It was mostly a moderate rain and the wind never blew that hard. There are still widly scattered buildups drifting by with sudden down pours, but they only last for a couple of minutes. The temp. was 61 during the rain and it's still 61F. The forcast is for several warm sunny days which is great.

Dick

[Kathryn]

It rained constantly for 12 hours in Walnut Creek, and I recieved exactly 4 inches. It was mostly a moderate rain and the wind never blew that hard.

That's good news Dick. Hopefully it had a chance to soak in.

[happ]

Not quite 2" at my station, almost double that amount in higher slope burn areas [ie Station fire] but it was so gentle that no landslides occurred. Unbelievable rain totals in Central Cal mts\ over 12" in 48hrs. Wind damage was minimal w/ 75mph gusts restricted to highest elevations. Melor was an angel aside from agriculture losses. A good start on what may be a wet year!

[KMartin]

I got zip here from Pacific Storm Ahmad.

Though the official SCWXA model did well with rain in my area, more so than the "hype" I saw from other models suggesting near an inch for the IE.

http://www.scwxa.org/news/2009/10/pr101409.html

[BS Man about Palms]

Saw heavy drizzle/light rain for a short while when leaving for work Tues morning. That was it for me.

[PalmGuyWC]

The additional spotty showers yesterday morning added 1/4" to my total which was 4.25 inches. I got very little runoff as the ground was very dry and soaked up the rain like a sponge. My ground is now saturated and is a great way to start the rainy season. The palms look lush and green. Myl low last night was 64F and a high today in the 70's.

Dick

[Palmy]

^ And it isn't bone dry!

So it appears this storm was benificial for the most part accept for the wind and perhaps the 15+ inches of rain in the santa cruz mountians. It appears the ground really soaked this baby up. Almost like a sponge.

Hopefully So-Cal will get more action as the fall progresses.

[happ]

Santa Cruz & Monterey counties is where unbelievable amounts of rain occurred [20+ inches in some mt regions]. It didn't soak in everywhere. This photo is a house in Corralitos\ near Santa Cruz

[PalmGuyWC]

Happ,

Let's face it. A huge precentage of houses in Calif. are where they shouldn't be in the first place. Many are built right over faults, where mud slides can occur, and where there is a high danger of wild fires. I'm on flat land, and a flood or fire is remote, but there could always the the Big One. That's something that could affect anyone living in Calif.

Dick

[happ]

Happ,

Let's face it. A huge precentage of houses in Calif. are where they shouldn't be in the first place. Many are built right over faults, where mud slides can occur, and where there is a high danger of wild fires. I'm on flat land, and a flood or fire is remote, but there could always the the Big One. That's something that could affect anyone living in Calif.

Dick

True but the state is mountainous w/ canyons [there isn't a choice in cities like San Francisco\ Los Angeles]. How often do we get 15"+ in 48 hrs? In October? Very El Nino-like

Here's Melor's track

Los Angeles

[happ]

Salinas

Sacramento

[happ]

San Jose

San Francisco

[Palmy]

Oh man that house is smashed!! Hopefully the next one wont be so windy! And maybe it can go a bit further south. Spread the wealth huh SD?

[BS Man about Palms]

Oh man that house is smashed!! Hopefully the next one wont be so windy! And maybe it can go a bit further south. Spread the wealth huh SD?

OK.

[KMartin]

Happ, it is not Melor anymore by definition. Ex Melor, but in SoCal, it was Ahmad. Once it hits the SCWXA jurisdiction it acquires a new name for this region. The frontal zone and dynamics is what I mean, the center of circulation of Melor went way north.

[happ]

Happ, it is not Melor anymore by definition. Ex Melor, but in SoCal, it was Ahmad. Once it hits the SCWXA jurisdiction it acquires a new name for this region. The frontal zone and dynamics is what I mean, the center of circulation of Melor went way north.

Only in your mind!

[KMartin]

Next one is officially, "B", Brandon. However, C/N California does not officially get a name from the SCWXA process.

[MattyB]

Dorky with a slight chance of nerds.

[happ]

Interesting info written yesterday:

Still can't understand why there wasn't more damage [21" in 2 days

"The remains of Super Typhoon Melor dumped record-breaking amounts of rain over California over the past 24 hours, but the storm is now departing the state without having caused major damage. Mining Ridge in Monterey County had an extraordinary 21.34" of rain, and several locations in Santa Cruz, Monterey, and Santa Clara counties had over 10" of precipitation. Downtown San Francisco recorded 2.49 inches of rain, which is the greatest 24 hour rainfall for the month of October (records have been kept since 1849). Monterey also set a record for the greatest October rainfall, 2.66".

Strong winds accompanied the storm, with the Twin Peaks in San Francisco recording a hurricane-force gust of 75 mph, Angel Island, 77 mph, and Los Gatos in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 87 mph. Sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force were experienced at several locations along the coast. The Point Reyes Lighthouse experienced sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph, at the peak of the storm. The Sierra Mountains probably experienced hurricane-force wind gusts, and received several feet of snow. California was lucky this storm came early in their rainy season, since the ground was dry from a year-long drought and the soils were able to absorb a great deal of the rain. Melor's Deluge in California will be a great boon for the state, helping it to overcome one of the most severe droughts in the past 50 years".

[epicure3]

Dorky with a slight chance of nerds.

[Palmy]

For some reason, I got an alert on my weather station. I reported 2.16 inches yesterday in a span of 1 hour and 15 minutes. I practically spit my coffee all over the screen, I couldn't believe it. I had to check the radar and what do you know. A huge blob of 1 inch+ an hour even 2 inches+ at some points. Incredible...

Anybody else in the bay area get any of this action? It looked like the storm only affected north bay and east bay with other areas getting less than a quarter inch. I think I have about 6 1/2 inches so far for the season... Wow...