Persistent Cold Air in Florida

[gsytch]

Long term models have persistent cold air funneling its way deep down south. A ridge is blocking the air from retreating, so it may be long term and COLD! If it keeps up, we may have freezes into SW Florida. I am preparing now as I am off school until Jan 8th, so I do not get "caught". Where is El NIno when you need him?

[PalmatierMeg]

Sounds like last winter. Here we had 4-5 weeks in a row with "near freezing/freezing" nights at some point. Couldn't catch a break.

[PalmatierMeg]

Was checking out my local forecast for the next 10 days. Lows will be mostly low-mid 40s. Highs will be 60s. That's down 10-15 degrees from our normal hi/low. So far this winter definitely looks cooler than normal. I can deal with that if lows stay above 40. We may get more rain than usual. Good, because we are 14+" down.

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

I'm with you, Meg!

Paul

[gsytch]

Here in New Port Richey, Dec has been very wet. We've had over 6" of rain, although not much in the past week. It hit 39F yesterday morning in my back yard. Today was beautiful and sunny, for a change. The grayness was getting old. I'm watching the forecasts, and when they predict teens for Charlotte, that means cold air. It seems whenever a bad nor'easter goes up the coast the pattern changes, and we get chilly weather. At least the days are getting longer, albeit slowly! Greg

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Yup, to all comments.

Paul

[gsytch]

Ya might want to check again, Meg. Its going to be a cold one!!!!!!!!!! Greg

[spockvr6]

Ya might want to check again, Meg. Its going to be a cold one!!!!!!!!!! Greg

Looks like it Greg!

The next 10 nights lows (as per weather.com) in order starting tonight----

61

40

38

37

36

36

42

45

58

50

Im not sure I ever recall having 4 nights of 30's in a row!

[spockvr6]

Heck, I juyst checked Key West, and even though their lows are forecast to stay in the 50's, the highs look to struggle into the lower 60's. So, this is a cold airmass it appears.

[SunnyFl]

Ya might want to check again, Meg. Its going to be a cold one!!!!!!!!!! Greg

Looks like it Greg!

The next 10 nights lows (as per weather.com) in order starting tonight----

61

40

38

37

36

36

42

45

58

50

Im not sure I ever recall having 4 nights of 30's in a row!

Greg, when is the blocking ridge forecast to weaken or move away? This year we want to protect the bottle - it's looking so perfect I should take a piccie in case our cold protection isn't substantial. Whatever form it takes. argh.

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

That air mass is about right on time! I didn't think that we'd have Hawaii's temps too much longer!

Paul

[gsytch]

This looks like a week of real cold weather, then still chilly afterwards. With another storm up the east coast, it reinforces the cold plunge. Our only hope is that El Nino throws some clouds to deflect the cold. Tomorrow will be spent preparing as my back yard gets rather chilly. The front stays ok with its tree cover. Greg

[SunnyFl]

Here are the projected lows for Lealman, for the next few days. From NWS this morning:

Friday night 1/1/10........44

Saturday night 1/2/10....37

Sunday night 1/3/10......37

Monday night 1/4/10......38

Tuesday night 1/5/10.....37

Wed. night 1/6/10..........44

We have:

Wind Chill Advisory

Lake Wind Avisory

Short Term Forecast

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Special Weather Statement

and a Spotter Self-Activation (probably for wind)

This morning at 7 AM, NWS site showed Albert Whitted at 63. At my house, it was 68 (felt almost like 70, since there was no wind). Once the cold front pushes thru, Whitted will have the warmer temps.

Edited January 1, 2010 by SunnyFl

[SunnyFl]

And just for the heck of it, I checked the NWS clickable map for West Broward County - my cursor landed on 3 Miles W of Sunrise. The temps were only 2 - 3 degrees warmer than us, and on Sunday night, only 1F better.

That's not much of a difference - the protracted chill is going to last right down the peninsula.

Happy New Year!!!

brrrr

[spockvr6]

This morning at 7 AM, NWS site showed Albert Whitted at 63. At my house, it was 68 (felt almost like 70, since there was no wind).

I think we better enjoy this map.....going to be quite a long time it seems till we see this again

[spockvr6]

Here are the projected lows for Lealman, for the next few days. From NWS this morning:

Friday night 1/1/10........44

Saturday night 1/2/10....37

Sunday night 1/3/10......37

Monday night 1/4/10......38

Tuesday night 1/5/10.....37

Wed. night 1/6/10..........44

We have:

Wind Chill Advisory

Lake Wind Avisory

Short Term Forecast

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Special Weather Statement

and a Spotter Self-Activation (probably for wind)

This morning at 7 AM, NWS site showed Albert Whitted at 63. At my house, it was 68 (felt almost like 70, since there was no wind). Once the cold front pushes thru, Whitted will have the warmer temps.

Dont worry Sunny....still a few days for them to lower these forecasts some LOL.

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Looks like the NWS has dropped the expected lows around the state another 2-4 degrees F. Here in Ft. Laiuderdale, we're loking at 39-40 F. Monday AM. It's weird that today it'll still be 81 F. That means we'll be taking a 40+ degrees plunge sometime early in the evening. One thing that I'm grateful for (if that is even appropriate) is that the cold comes on a Holiday Weekend when I can really take time to protect and/or bring in the most cold-tender plants. I'm even more worried about my tropical fruiting trees i.e. my breadfruit trees, that will "freeze" at 48 F. I can't do too much to mitigate cold damage/cold penetration to the tissue, but I CAN keep the roots warm. Three years of top growth will get nipped back readily by tomorrow!

This cold is going to "piss us off" but weather stats would indicate that this timeframe for the "event" is quite within the time parameters we would expect to have the arctic air incursion.

We'll live with it, and we'll live with the possible aftermath. The one variable is what y'all have been stating...the presence of lingering cloulds would greatly mitigate the extent of cold pebetration at ground level, easily by 5-10 degrees F. I'd say that there is about a 50% chance of lingering clouds tonight, and the likelihood diminishes thereafter q

[spockvr6]

And just for the heck of it, I checked the NWS clickable map for West Broward County - my cursor landed on 3 Miles W of Sunrise. The temps were only 2 - 3 degrees warmer than us, and on Sunday night, only 1F better.

That's not much of a difference - the protracted chill is going to last right down the peninsula.

Happy New Year!!!

brrrr

Much shorter duration there though and much faster warmup.

Thats the catch with relying on the water to keep temps up vs. having latitude on your side.

[spockvr6]

. I'd say that there is about a 50% chance of lingering clouds tonight, and the likelihood diminishes thereafter q

Paul-

MY vote is for 100% chance of clouds

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Looks like the NWS has lowered the lows by another few degrees, as reported at 8 AM 01-01-10 (that's a lot of 1s and 0's!!) by another two or three degrees F. each of the next six mornings! That's pretty distressing, no?

Today, we'll be in the lower 80's in SW Broward Co., but are forecast to be at 41 F. by tomorrow AM...that's a whopping 40+ temperature plunge.

The one good thing is that since it's Holiday weekend, I'll have time to carefully tend the palms & tropical fruiting trees a lot better.

We haven't had one of these events in a good while, so I'm a little out of practice!! I'll do the best I can do, but since my accident I'm a lot less mobile.

THE BEST OF FORTUNES SAVING YOUR PRIDE AND JOY TENDER PALMS. Perhaps Eric can photograph freeze/frost aftermath(s) with his trusty camera. I would be curious to see what Mom Nature working "full bore" can do (as I've long ago forgotten!)

Love to y'all!

Dr. Paul

[falcon1988]

Man this is really getting old i just hate being glued to the computer or the weather seeing what if or that is going to happen the forecast in my area

weather.com NOAA

Friday 1 65/45 -- 65/45

Saturday 2 56/40 -- 58/38

Sunday 3 51/41 -- 55/38

Monday 4 55/40 -- 56/38

Tuesday 5 51/35 -- 53/38

Wednesday 6 57/43 -- 56/45

Thursday 7 59/49 -- 61/ ??

Friday 8 62/50

Saturday 9 58/47

Sunday 10 62/49

This Forecast was updated at 11:AM however things still can change for the better I will wrap my smaller palms and my much much bigger palms will have to ride this out. I think they will be OK they do get much hardier when they get older so hopefully things will be OK. chances are if i lose anything I will not replace this is getting old and it sorta destroys your interest in the hobby

[gsn]

Unfortunately it CAN also get WORSE,as it usually does the closer to the event.

They are all over the board on forecasted temps for here, with Weather.com being the most pessimistic at this point!They forecast us to hit the freeze mark 2 of the 5 days. What seems fairly consistent at this point is that for the next 5 days our lows will be somwhere in the 30's.

weather.com-----NWS-----------w/underground

39 ------------------ 40 -----------------40

35 ------------------ 38 -----------------38

32 ------------------ 38 -----------------38

33 ------------------ 37 -----------------36

32 ------------------ 39 -----------------38

I also don't ever remember this protracted of a cold event,even though right now most are saying no freeze. The most persisitent cold I can remember is 3 days before some type of warm-up, not 5 or 6 days!!!

Edited January 1, 2010 by gsn

[spockvr6]

Unfortunately it CAN also get WORSE,as it usually does the closer to the event.

Yeah...almost every time it does

[gsytch]

We've had this before. One year we went 10 days without hitting 60F at any point, I believe it was 2005. The chilly days this year have definitely been REAL chilly and gray. Overnight, we had another 1.1" of rain making over 7" for Dec. So, the El Nino forecast of cool and wet is right on! I just wish this El Nino would be like the 97-98 event where the winter low was 42F! Even if we get thru this event, we still have Jan and Feb to get through!!!!!!! Yikes! Greg

[falcon1988]

I went back to the records to see if we indeed had these events before sure enough we did more then you think, Your right

gsytch, some of the information was given i question i looked back on wunderground records in st.pete not sure if this really accurate or not

i guess if your palms are big and older they will be fine the smaller ones will have some issues unless you cover them. I just hope this event isn't all that what they say but again

who knows

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Man this is really getting old i just hate being glued to the computer or the weather seeing what if or that is going to happen the forecast in my area

weather.com NOAA

Friday 1 65/45 -- 65/45

Saturday 2 56/40 -- 58/38

Sunday 3 51/41 -- 55/38

Monday 4 55/40 -- 56/38

Tuesday 5 51/35 -- 53/38

Wednesday 6 57/43 -- 56/45

Thursday 7 59/49 -- 61/ ??

Friday 8 62/50

Saturday 9 58/47

Sunday 10 62/49

This Forecast was updated at 11:AM however things still can change for the better I will wrap my smaller palms and my much much bigger palms will have to ride this out. I think they will be OK they do get much hardier when they get older so hopefully things will be OK. chances are if i lose anything I will not replace this is getting old and it sorta destroys your interest in the hobby

You're right Matt; it does get rather tedious! Since I have no energy anyway after my car crash, I have a good excuse for NOT going all nuts with palm protection.

Clouds are very thick here now so tomorrow AM should be pretty tolerable.

After that, whatever happens, is in nature's control!

PS: Matt I'm confused, weren't we supposed to begin our friendship in '09. What went wrong? Can I correct any perceived problems?

PAUL

[Kailua_Krish]

I really hope that weather.com is right and accuweather and NOAA are wrong, both of them are predicting it will be 21 degrees in Ocala on Tuesday morning and while I am usually warmer than predictions that still sucks At least Im home to protect things and it doesnt look weird to have lots of Christmas lights out on plants!

-Krishna

[koolthing78]

Maybe it's just because it happened my first winter living in Florida that I remember it so well, but I'm surprised no one's commenting on the similarities between this winter and the Dec/Jan of 2002/2003, when we were also experiencing a "moderate" El Nino. That was St. Pete's 2nd coldest January on record, I believe, and it seemed like a miracle whenever we broke 60, much less 70. While this lengthy stretch of cold certainly blows, I can't say I'm completely surprised (though I was hoping it wouldn't be as bad as that winter).

[SunnyFl]

Unfortunately it CAN also get WORSE,as it usually does the closer to the event.

Yeah...almost every time it does

Sorry, Matthew - I'm with Scott & Larry on this one. If you listen to the noaa-wx reports each morning, you'll usually notice that each time they do the forecast for the cold event, the closer it gets in time, the worse it gets. So you listen for the trend.... and say very bad words.

I just went outside and it feels plenty colder than it did at mid-morning. (I pulled my back after a few hours shoveling & hacking at old roots in my Backyard-From-Hell and had to stop for a bit.)

Cold Protection: tomorrow evening, we're hauling all the potted crotons in - these are big guys and there are plenty of them. They'll be in and out a lot over the upcoming week, as will the baby palmies. The potted bottle palm will be replacing the Christmas Tree in the living room. ugh. we're getting too old for this.

For my prized bottle palm in the ground - which has gotten quite attractive - tomorrow we're building a wooden "cage" over which we'll drape quilts. The spindle has gotten too big to protect (except with plumbers heated coils/tapes thingy which we don't have). I hope my juvie Teddy Bear will be okay - it's starting to shape up nicely and it would kill me to lose it.

Paul the Palm Doc said:

Today, we'll be in the lower 80's in SW Broward Co., but are forecast to be at 41 F. by tomorrow AM

The 80's. here, we had 60's. OTOH, yesterday was quite warm & nice (but I had to go in to work on my "day off") and our overnight low is still forecast to be 44.

[chris78]

Just in from the weather

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAVE IN ITS WAKE A COLD AND DRY

AIR MASS WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE

ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, WESTERN PALM BEACH AND NORTHERN COLLIER

COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE

DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVER

INTERIOR AREAS. FREEZE WATCHES AND FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED

FOR PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. PLEASE REFER TO THE FREEZE OUTLOOK FOR

FURTHER DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

[SunnyFl]

Maybe it's just because it happened my first winter living in Florida that I remember it so well, but I'm surprised no one's commenting on the similarities between this winter and the Dec/Jan of 2002/2003, when we were also experiencing a "moderate" El Nino. That was St. Pete's 2nd coldest January on record, I believe, and it seemed like a miracle whenever we broke 60, much less 70. While this lengthy stretch of cold certainly blows, I can't say I'm completely surprised (though I was hoping it wouldn't be as bad as that winter).

For me, it's hard to understand how 2002-2003 could be the 2nd coldest. Perhaps by "2nd coldest January on record" they mean the chill lasted longer, but looking back on the 1980's, winters then seemed much colder.

Back in the 80s, we had hard freezes - really bad ones. The Central FL citrus growers had an awful time - and started moving farther south. The worst cold event was Christmas Eve 1989 - the year that the power companies ran out of electricity and on Christmas Day, we had "rolling blackouts" and people were told not to use Christmas lights at all.

We lived in Pinellas Park back then and had just bought our current place in Lealman. Everything in our yard in PP froze; my big shefflera melted. IIRC I think the low there was about 21. At our Lealman place, the even-bigger shefflera came thru with only some bronzing at the top, nothing serious. But even in Lealman, I wouldn't have even thought about growing the stuff I grow now.

In the 80's, it was difficult enough growing alamandas & hibiscuses - every couple of years, we'd lose them to freezes. Now, the whole area - PP included - is growing adonidias, lutescens, foxtails, coconuts, pandanus. Adonidia has become the new roebelini - in terms of popularity.

At the corner nursery down the road, the owner said she was here in Lealman in the 60's, and recorded a temp of 17F. Hope we never get anywhere near that again!

[amazondk]

At the corner nursery down the road, the owner said she was here in Lealman in the 60's, and recorded a temp of 17F. Hope we never get anywhere near that again!

Well, it may not happen next year, or even in 100 years, but at some point in time the next ice age will come. And, Florida will probably be what it was during the last one, a windswept desert with plenty of cold weather.

dk

[Dave-Vero]

Inland areas typically get cooler than the immediate coast. Erinon Nursery, an Orlando-area specialist in growing camellias, will sell a few varieties for locations a short distance inland as far south as Homestead (!), but not for the immediate coast all the way up to Brevard. This may also account for the ability of azaleas to flower on the mainland in Vero Beach and Heathcote Gardens in Ft. Pierce. Here in Indian River County, Fellsmere somehow goes below 20 F fairly regularly (a big problem for a heliconia grower), while Vero airport never has.

What we're seeing right now is a freeze watch inland, as far south as Lake Okeechobee.

[Alicehunter2000]

EEgggahhdd!.........They changed my forcast up here.......Projected to be 50/28 Saturday, 47/25 Sunday, 50/23 Monday, 48,/26 Tuesday....above freezing the remainder of the week. This is TERRIBLE! I guess I might lose some stuff.....I just hope the Bizmarkia's do ok.......I think most of my queens will look like crap and may pull spears.....but hopefully will recover. Guess I'm wrapping stuff up tomorrow. Hope there is no frost. May we all have good luck that it doesn't get this cold. Come on March!

[happ]

Was checking out my local forecast for the next 10 days. Lows will be mostly low-mid 40s. Highs will be 60s. That's down 10-15 degrees from our normal hi/low. So far this winter definitely looks cooler than normal. I can deal with that if lows stay above 40. We may get more rain than usual. Good, because we are 14+" down.

You've just described a typical California winter!

[happ]

We've had this before. One year we went 10 days without hitting 60F at any point, I believe it was 2005. The chilly days this year have definitely been REAL chilly and gray. Overnight, we had another 1.1" of rain making over 7" for Dec. So, the El Nino forecast of cool and wet is right on! I just wish this El Nino would be like the 97-98 event where the winter low was 42F! Even if we get thru this event, we still have Jan and Feb to get through!!!!!!! Yikes! Greg

We are praying that this is a 1997-98 El Nino because it is beginning to look like a "big zero" for California & another year of drought. Wish you all the best!

[Paul The Palm Doctor!]

Man this is really getting old i just hate being glued to the computer or the weather seeing what if or that is going to happen the forecast in my area

weather.com NOAA

Friday 1 65/45 -- 65/45

Saturday 2 56/40 -- 58/38

Sunday 3 51/41 -- 55/38

Monday 4 55/40 -- 56/38

Tuesday 5 51/35 -- 53/38

Wednesday 6 57/43 -- 56/45

Thursday 7 59/49 -- 61/ ??

Friday 8 62/50

Saturday 9 58/47

Sunday 10 62/49

This Forecast was updated at 11:AM however things still can change for the better I will wrap my smaller palms and my much much bigger palms will have to ride this out. I think they will be OK they do get much hardier when they get older so hopefully things will be OK. chances are if i lose anything I will not replace this is getting old and it sorta destroys your interest in the hobby

Dear Matthew:

It's in our blood to stretch growing zones from 11 to 10 and 10 to 9 etc. The cold events like this one upcoming, are relatively infrequent so we can take a bit of encouragement knowing that. I really hate the aftermaths of these freeze events too, but I hate more the barren landscape after the cold is over for another year! I just save up enough to replant and have a landscaper do the planting (because my back is still terrible from the auto accidents) and enjoy everthing "back in place" by July 4th Weekend. Fortunately, we humans have a short memory, otherwise there are many things we redo, even after we say we will not repeat!

I guess that there are people who don't keep the same plant diversity in their hobby, but they don't make up the majority. Maybe you are burned out Matthew; that's always a possibility, but I hope that you are not, because you ARE a talently plantsman.

Dr.Paul

[SunnyFl]

An ugly forecast, with freeze warnings over Central FL, except Pinellas (so far) and hard freeze just to our north.

In Pinellas, our projected low on Tuesday night will now be 34, down from 37, and it could go lower still. I expect as much.

On the map, the pale aqua (Pinellas) is a Wind Chill Advisory - the turquoise is Freeze Warning.

This morning at around 6AM, it was 48 at St. Pete/Clw airport, 49 at Albert Whitted (per noaa-radio) and 46.2 at my house.

[SunnyFl]

From NWS:

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

301 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2010

...COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

....... BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING`S TEMPS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR...ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOWS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.....

A QUICK LOOK AT RECORD LOWS INDICATES THAT FORT MYERS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR TYING OR BREAKING SOME RECORD LOWS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS."

Update: at 7am it dropped to 46 at Whitted; 45 at my house. brrr.

[gsytch]

Some areas inland Tampa Bay may see freezing temps in the 20's for several days! The 7 day model does not show highs over 60F. This will definitely be a record-setting event for duration rather than temperature. What an odd winter it has been. Not something I wanted to see. I am in a marginal area of freezes, so we shall see how low it gets, but days and days of this will not be good for anything (except maybe the hostas that showed up this winter? in centers) lol....Greg