EL NINO TO CONTINUE INTO SPRING

[PalmGuyWC]

Light rain in the SF bay area all day yesterday, but some areas getting 1.5". Another low of 35.6 this morning behind the front with light frost on the roof tops. But......a warm up coming with high temps forcast for the 70's coming next week.

Dick

[epicure3]

El Nino continues to effect Florida. Palm Beach had over 7 inches of rain commencing Thursday night thru Friday.This is normally our dry season but PBI has recorded 15.61 inches so far this year when normal to date is 7.64 inches.The only good news is the cold is gone. By May, we will be crying for it's return.

Oh, come on, I doubt that.

[bubba]

June?

[happ]

Personally, I worry every time a week goes by without rain. Another storm falls apart before reaching SoCal & nothing on the horizon into next week. As bubba points out, the subtropical jet is still very active but staying south of California. Systems spinning out of the Gulf of Alaska are cold & unable to tap the southern jet. Glad that NorCal reservoirs are filling to near capacity.

"The average water content contained in the Sierra snowpack is 107 percent of normal, according to Wednesday's snow survey, the third of the winter."

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local-beat/Old-Man-Winter-Smiles-on-the-Sierra-86270217.html

Big warm up coming - 80's - first time since mid-Feb. Good time to fertilize.

[PalmGuyWC]

After the last two weak systems that moved through N. Calif. I've been getting the coolest night time temps of the winter. Two nights down to 36 F but no freezing, but light frosts. Chilly nights but warm days forcast for the next week with highs in the lower 70's. A low this morning of 39 F.

Dick

[epicure3]

June?

Maybe July.

[happ]

Keep your fingers crossed b/c a rain system is moving eastward into Baja & may have enough dynamics to produce showers in Alta California [mainly San Diego county]. The long-range charts look encouraging through it is a toss-up this far out. Here's a recent AMS_LA comment:

"The CDC Long Range Ensemble Spaghetti plots over the North Hemisphere are trending to a very wet pattern over all of California during the 1st week of April. This is an interesting shift and does not seem possible for this time of year. There have only been a handful of very wet Aprils' in the past: 1880, 1926, 1965, 1978, and 1983 - all were above 5 inches of rain for Downtown Los Angeles. We shall see if this happens - I have this gut feeling that it may happen... "

[bgl]

Personally, I think the El Niño type weather is behind us as far as Hawaii is concerned. Comparing with the most recent strong El Niño, and the only other one that I have personal experience with, both events had very clearly defined beginnings and endings, as follows:

1998, began on Jan. 1st and ended on March 24th. Normal (or I should say "average") rainfall before and after this period.

Total of 83 El Niño days with a total of 5.72 inches of rain in this entire period.

2010, began on Dec. 21st, 2009 and anded on Feb. 28th, 2010. "Normal" rainfall before and after this period.

Total of 71 El Niño days with a total of 5.31 inches of rain in this entire period.

The reason I am convinced El Niño is behind us now is that we had a total of 4.72 inches of rain for the 59 days of Jan & Feb and we're already up to 10.56 inches for the month of March. And still six days to go, and we're bound to get more. (And it's raining right now!)

[epicure3]

Keep your fingers crossed b/c a rain system is moving eastward into Baja & may have enough dynamics to produce showers in Alta California [mainly San Diego county]. The long-range charts look encouraging through it is a toss-up this far out. Here's a recent AMS_LA comment:

"The CDC Long Range Ensemble Spaghetti plots over the North Hemisphere are trending to a very wet pattern over all of California during the 1st week of April. This is an interesting shift and does not seem possible for this time of year. There have only been a handful of very wet Aprils' in the past: 1880, 1926, 1965, 1978, and 1983 - all were above 5 inches of rain for Downtown Los Angeles. We shall see if this happens - I have this gut feeling that it may happen... "

As of today, the rain scenario is looking very good for next week. However, yesterday, there was none. The day before looked probable. Etc.... We can hope.

[happ]

Thanks for the info, Bo. It hasn't been very "El Nino-like" lately but next week is looking more encouraging, as epicure points out. Now NWS is predicting a strong cold storm w/ the remnants of TS Omais for next week that could produce significant rainfall.

NWS_San Francisco:

NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE A DEPARTURE FROM RECENT WEATHER AS THE JET CONFIGURATION BECOMES ZONAL AROUND 40N ON SUNDAY BEFORE DIVING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER WAVES FOR THE WEEK AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIRECTS WAVE AFTER WAVE TO THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO AGREE THAT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM OMAIS (CURRENTLY AT 18N/132E OR 10000 KM OFF TO THE WSW) WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. WHERE THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE JET WILL SAG AND IF IT WILL BE ONE LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE COMING ACROSS OR IN TWO SMALLER PIECES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ALSO BRING A STRONG SURFACE LOW DOWN NEAR THE CWA. THIS AGAIN SHOWS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS HAVE IT GOING ACROSS TO SF BAY WITH OTHERS KEEPING IT MORE OFF THE COAST. FOR THE FORECAST...POPS WERE PUSHED UP FOR TUESDAY ONWARD WITH VALUE FOR WEDNESDAY MOVED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASED AS THE ECMWF ALREADY DEPICTS UP TO 50 KT AT 850MB OVER SF BAY. BOTTOM LINE...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST.

[Cristóbal]

Thanks for the info, Bo. It hasn't been very "El Nino-like" lately but next week is looking more encouraging, as epicure points out. Now NWS is predicting a strong cold storm w/ the remnants of TS Omais for next week that could produce significant rainfall.

NWS_San Francisco:

NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE A DEPARTURE FROM RECENT WEATHER AS THE JET CONFIGURATION BECOMES ZONAL AROUND 40N ON SUNDAY BEFORE DIVING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY A COLD FRONT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER WAVES FOR THE WEEK AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA DIRECTS WAVE AFTER WAVE TO THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO AGREE THAT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM OMAIS (CURRENTLY AT 18N/132E OR 10000 KM OFF TO THE WSW) WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. WHERE THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE JET WILL SAG AND IF IT WILL BE ONE LARGE SLUG OF MOISTURE COMING ACROSS OR IN TWO SMALLER PIECES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ALSO BRING A STRONG SURFACE LOW DOWN NEAR THE CWA. THIS AGAIN SHOWS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS HAVE IT GOING ACROSS TO SF BAY WITH OTHERS KEEPING IT MORE OFF THE COAST. FOR THE FORECAST...POPS WERE PUSHED UP FOR TUESDAY ONWARD WITH VALUE FOR WEDNESDAY MOVED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASED AS THE ECMWF ALREADY DEPICTS UP TO 50 KT AT 850MB OVER SF BAY. BOTTOM LINE...PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST.

197 mm - 7.76 inches for me from 1 july to today. this is normal. it is not common to have heavy rain after 15 march. if theres rain in the next week this is good, even little bit it is all good. but for this year i can say this el niño is nothing.

[Cristóbal]

I can only say this big storm they say for today is nothing here. It is now gone and 1 mm (.04 inchs) of rain.

[happ]

Cristóbal, this past storm was pathetic. Polar systems dry out this far south unless there is some juicy sub-tropical moisture available. El Nino certainly hasn't been as generous to California compared to the Gulf States\ Florida. April kicks off the 7-month dry season. oh well!

[gsn]

Yeah "el nino" was really generous to the gulf states and Florida...

The COLDEST winter in years!!!

[PalmGuyWC]

The past few fronts that have passed through the SF Bay area have fizzled out for the most part when they hit land with only scattered showers. Fortunately, no real cold behind them with nightly lows in the 40's, about normal for this time of the year. It should warm up here next week. All of the Valley Oaks have leafed out and the hills are bright green.

Dick

[happ]

It was nice to get a 6-hr period of scattered showers [0.60"\ 15.2mm] since it didn't rain in LA during last week's storm. Another system could occur late in the week or early next week.

[epicure3]

I was back in DC for a week. We had temps of 100-102 for a few days then, wicked storms, followed by Friday's whopping high of 57 or so. Wacky, wierd stuff.

[happ]

I was back in DC for a week. We had temps of 100-102 for a few days then, wicked storms, followed by Friday's whopping high of 57 or so. Wacky, wierd stuff.

Are you referring to WashingtonDC? "100-102"?

It has dropped 10 degrees each day since Thursday & tomorrow should be cooler than today\ 67F\ 19.4C. The next storm could bring as much rainfall or more than the last storm. Keep milking these systems for all that we can get. But it should be very cool\ 60's next week.

[epicure3]

Yup. Tuesday, we left Philadelphia at a temp of 82F at about 10AM. By the time we stopped for lunch in Baltimore it was 88F. Rolling in on rte. 50 towards New York Ave., it was 102F. The following day was the same. thursday cooled off to about 85F-90F. Then, Friday, it was 57F after some cool storms during the night.

[happ]

Yup. Tuesday, we left Philadelphia at a temp of 82F at about 10AM. By the time we stopped for lunch in Baltimore it was 88F. Rolling in on rte. 50 towards New York Ave., it was 102F. The following day was the same. thursday cooled off to about 85F-90F. Then, Friday, it was 57F after some cool storms during the night.

Are you referring to a car thermometer or NWS?

I could not believe how much it rained overnight. 1.30" is more than I recorded during all of March. This wet season may stick around a little longer!

Any rain in San Diego county?

[epicure3]

Car thermometer. However, it couldn't have been that far off. Let's say in was really 98F at the NWS. 98F in DC in mid-April is still unbelievable. I got about .5" last night.

[happ]

Car thermometer. However, it couldn't have been that far off. Let's say in was really 98F at the NWS. 98F in DC in mid-April is still unbelievable. I got about .5" last night.

That reading would be remarkable even in summer for Mid-Atlantic states.

I am so happy it rained in mid-April & another storm may hit early next week [really keeps the fire season at bay].

[epicure3]

Car thermometer. However, it couldn't have been that far off. Let's say in was really 98F at the NWS. 98F in DC in mid-April is still unbelievable. I got about .5" last night.

That reading would be remarkable even in summer for Mid-Atlantic states.

I am so happy it rained in mid-April & another storm may hit early next week [really keeps the fire season at bay].

I'm about ready for the rain to go away. Not that I don't like the rain, I just am getting tired of cold temps.

[happ]

Car thermometer. However, it couldn't have been that far off. Let's say in was really 98F at the NWS. 98F in DC in mid-April is still unbelievable. I got about .5" last night.

That reading would be remarkable even in summer for Mid-Atlantic states.

I am so happy it rained in mid-April & another storm may hit early next week [really keeps the fire season at bay].

I'm about ready for the rain to go away. Not that I don't like the rain, I just am getting tired of cold temps.

I know, it has been running close to 10 degrees F below normal at times this month. I love the rain but the air masses have been unusually cold w/ a stationary trough over the West. Some models are predicting a really cold storm for next week though it is just too early to say what will happened at this time.

Climatologists are pointing out how this has been a strange El Nino overall. Other factors more strongly influenced the wet season w/ only marginal ENSO effects for California.

Edited April 14, 2010 by happ

[PalmGuyWC]

In N. Calif. March was much warmer than April. So far we have been way below normal with night time lows in the 40's and day time in the 60's. In spite of the cool temps, my Tracheycarpus, Chamaerops, and Livistonas are blooming. We are slightly above normal for rain fall in N. Calif. and the ground is still moist. I'm ready for some warmth.

Dick

[happ]

It's nice to be still talking about rainfall in the 3rd week of April. A fairly powerful system in northern California is rapidly moving south. Rainfall looks assured if the storm doesn't completely fall apart. But the cold air is what's significant. Here's a segment from NWS_LA this morning:

"ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED EVENING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A REMARKABLY CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY...WITH HIGHS 12 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS."

[epicure3]

It's nice to be still talking about rainfall in the 3rd week of April. A fairly powerful system in northern California is rapidly moving south. Rainfall looks assured if the storm doesn't completely fall apart. But the cold air is what's significant. Here's a segment from NWS_LA this morning:

"ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED EVENING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A REMARKABLY CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY...WITH HIGHS 12 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS."

But, no frost I take it.

[happ]

It's nice to be still talking about rainfall in the 3rd week of April. A fairly powerful system in northern California is rapidly moving south. Rainfall looks assured if the storm doesn't completely fall apart. But the cold air is what's significant. Here's a segment from NWS_LA this morning:

"ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED EVENING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A REMARKABLY CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY...WITH HIGHS 12 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS."

But, no frost I take it.

Wouldn't that be a trip if it actually got cold enough for frost? It has rained lightly for several hours this afternoon but the storm track has shifted east so rainfall amounts aren't very impressive [i.e. 0.20 at my locale]. Minumums in the 40's could easily occur at least inland for a few nights.

[Tyrone]

It's nice to be still talking about rainfall in the 3rd week of April. A fairly powerful system in northern California is rapidly moving south. Rainfall looks assured if the storm doesn't completely fall apart. But the cold air is what's significant. Here's a segment from NWS_LA this morning:

"ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED EVENING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A REMARKABLY CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY...WITH HIGHS 12 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS."

But, no frost I take it.

Wouldn't that be a trip if it actually got cold enough for frost? It has rained lightly for several hours this afternoon but the storm track has shifted east so rainfall amounts aren't very impressive [i.e. 0.20 at my locale]. Minumums in the 40's could easily occur at least inland for a few nights.

It's taking a while for Cali to warm up this year with temps like that. Is the switch to warm weather likely to come suddenly?

Best regards

Tyrone

[epicure3]

It's nice to be still talking about rainfall in the 3rd week of April. A fairly powerful system in northern California is rapidly moving south. Rainfall looks assured if the storm doesn't completely fall apart. But the cold air is what's significant. Here's a segment from NWS_LA this morning:

"ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED EVENING COULD PRODUCE BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A REMARKABLY CHILLY LATE APRIL DAY...WITH HIGHS 12 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS."

But, no frost I take it.

Wouldn't that be a trip if it actually got cold enough for frost? It has rained lightly for several hours this afternoon but the storm track has shifted east so rainfall amounts aren't very impressive [i.e. 0.20 at my locale]. Minumums in the 40's could easily occur at least inland for a few nights.

It's taking a while for Cali to warm up this year with temps like that. Is the switch to warm weather likely to come suddenly?

Best regards

Tyrone

Yes. That's what I would say. You can't keep Cali weather down for that long. However, May gray and June gloom aren't exceptionally warm times of the year.

[PalmGuyWC]

The latest front brought very little rain to N. Calif, but some chilly temps, but no frost. I expect this will be the last front of the spring, and then a gradual warm up. We are overdue for some warm weather to come and stay.

Dick

[happ]

The latest front brought very little rain to N. Calif, but some chilly temps, but no frost. I expect this will be the last front of the spring, and then a gradual warm up. We are overdue for some warm weather to come and stay.

Dick

Long range\2-week models continue wet. April rainfall amounts are above normal across the state which is a very good thing regarding water storage in Northern Cal. GFS shows warming\ drying in May but as epicure points out the late spring pattern of coastal clouds kicks in. That is why our spring season is basically cooler than other regions at our latitude. Slows palm growth. This morning's minimums were very cold & one station\ Simi Valley recorded 39F\ 3.8C @ 7AM. The state water resources weather station near me recorded 41F\ 5C. But that thermometer seems to swing wildly hotter or colder than other local stations. I did, however, record 46F\ 7.7C. Downtown\ airport stayed in the 50's. There is at least 36-48 hours of cold temps as the upper low sits out in the desert for a while.

[MattyB]

We've had very brief periods of heavy rain this morning. It'll downpour for about 15 seconds as a dense cloud moves through and that's it. Rainfall amounts not yet up to .10" as of 10:30 am.

[bubba]

This El Nino thing is for real.Specifically, this year we have had 21.77" at the airport, when the average is 12.31". Last year, we had approximately 1.5" at May 13,2009.

Additionally, Lake Okeechobee is 14.75 ft. when normal is 13.87 feet.

[bubba]

Continuing wetter by far than usual. Rainfall as of 5/1/2010-23.50'-Normal-13.42'

Lake Okeechobee-15.11Ft./Normal-13.81'

Humidity is back and temperature range from low 70's to mid 80'sF.

[epicure3]

NWS-Los Angeles discussion just stated this morning that our rain season is over. In the words of General MacArthur, "These proceedings are now closed".

[PalmGuyWC]

Warm weather is about one month late in N. Calif. Most of my nightly lows in April were in the 40 degree range. Only in the last 3 nights have my minimums climbed to above 50F. Day time temps are in the 70's and touching 80 a few times.

Tracheycarpus have just about finished blooming and the Chamaerops are in full bloom now. None of my Cocoid palms are showing any sign of blooming yet, but once the spathes push out, they grow very fast. Two weeks of warm weather and plenty of water will make a huge difference.

Dick

[PalmGuyWC]

I keep thinking warm weather is just around the corner, but NO! It's 47 F here this morning after a week front passed through yesterday. I only got a trace of rain. Unsettled weather forcast here for the next week. This is about the latest in the season I can ever remember with temps. this cool.

Dick

[John Case]

For what its worth, I heard a report that this May has been the coolest since 1948. While I appreciate that, it seems odd that we are having trouble getting over 75f here when it should be in the 80s by now. I wonder if the ash from the volcano in Iceland has reflected heat around the world? There are instances in history where large volcanic plumes cooled the summer around the world.

[epicure3]

The weather here has been atrocious. Cool and cloudy with a couple of nice days here and there. It is one continuous western trough.