EL NINO TO CONTINUE INTO SPRING

[JimStPete]

I think the weather patterns have simply flip flopped. All winter, California was mild to warm while Florida was downright cold for 3 months straight(Jan-March)without any breaks at all which is very unusual for Florida!! In early April, the pattern finally shifted and Florida and the east coast started getting some very mild weather and now California is stuck in the 'cold rut.' When you are stuck in that 'rut' it seems like it will never end!

Edited May 21, 2010 by JimStPete

[happ]

I'm afraid the pattern is here to stay [and will actually get even colder next week]. A blocking pattern of high pressure over the East Coast & a near persistent trough over the West isn't going anywhere soon. Yesterday was only the 3rd day this month in the 80's & temps in the 60's w/ possible light showers is forecast into next week. Beyond these surface patterns I am not sure what is contributing to this very long spell of cool weather.

[PalmGuyWC]

My low this morning was 44F and the lows have been in the mid 40's all week. We are now about 7 weeks behind on warm weather. Someone mentioned this is the coolest spring in Calif. in 60 years. The highs for the next week are forcast to only be in the 60's.

I have bloom spathes pushing on the Jubaeas and the Butia X Jubaea, but nothing showing on any of the Butias. Normally this time of the year they would be blooming. This may be the summer that wasn't.

Dick

[freakypalmguy]

My low this morning was 44F and the lows have been in the mid 40's all week. We are now about 7 weeks behind on warm weather. Someone mentioned this is the coolest spring in Calif. in 60 years. The highs for the next week are forcast to only be in the 60's.

I have bloom spathes pushing on the Jubaeas and the Butia X Jubaea, but nothing showing on any of the Butias. Normally this time of the year they would be blooming. This may be the summer that wasn't.

Dick

It's all my fault Dick, I was flapping my gums about how mild a winter we had, and how good the growth should be come spring, I jinxed us.

It's been a lingering cool spring here as well, 62F and rain right now. Very blahhh. For some reason, all of my Butia have been pumping out more spathes (sp.?) than they ever have, and I even just completed polinating one with Parajubea cocoides pollen. One Butia pushed spathes all winter which seems a bit odd.

Matt

[happ]

Here's a snippet of the discussion on the weather from AMS_LA chapter:

AMS 5-23-10

"We have been stuck in a mid spring pattern (late March/early April) where the jet stream has been a little farther south than usual. Not everone will agree with this scenario, but we have yet to see a return of normal spring weather for quite some time. Cold, deep upper lows associated with jet stream are not common this far south this time of year . . . we have yet to see a normal pattern. We should see the jet stream over Oregon and Washington moving to the north as strong high pressure aloft moves over the west with building heights. Surface pressures are way too low as weak low pressure systems continue to develop off our coast in association with the upper level jet. We should have strong high pressure off our coast this time of year with the typical night and morning low clouds along the coast: May Gray/June Gloom. This has yet to happen.

I have been hearing through various media outlets that this typical weather for this time of year. But this furthest from the truth. A normal late spring pattern would be a May Gray/June Gloom pattern. This has yet to happen. The 8-14 day CPC outlook calls for rising heights over our area and the 564 line to back over Oregon and Washington. We should not have these cold, upper lows off our coast with rain and snow this far south".

Edited May 23, 2010 by happ

[BS Man about Palms]

Yeah, right now cool winds suck!

[gsn]

Here's a snippet of the discussion on the weather from AMS_LA chapter:

AMS 5-23-10

"We have been stuck in a mid spring pattern (late March/early April) where the jet stream has been a little farther south than usual. Not everone will agree with this scenario, but we have yet to see a return of normal spring weather for quite some time. Cold, deep upper lows associated with jet stream are not common this far south this time of year . . . we have yet to see a normal pattern. We should see the jet stream over Oregon and Washington moving to the north as strong high pressure aloft moves over the west with building heights. Surface pressures are way too low as weak low pressure systems continue to develop off our coast in association with the upper level jet. We should have strong high pressure off our coast this time of year with the typical night and morning low clouds along the coast: May Gray/June Gloom. This has yet to happen.

I have been hearing through various media outlets that this typical weather for this time of year. But this furthest from the truth. A normal late spring pattern would be a May Gray/June Gloom pattern. This has yet to happen. The 8-14 day CPC outlook calls for rising heights over our area and the 564 line to back over Oregon and Washington. We should not have these cold, upper lows off our coast with rain and snow this far south".

No mention of El Nino, is this still the effects of El Nino,or is the climate changing?

[JasonD]

San Francisco tied the 1909 record low of 47F this morning, May 23. NWS website said: "It hasnt (sic) been this cold in over 100 years!"

[happ]

Here's a snippet of the discussion on the weather from AMS_LA chapter:

AMS 5-23-10

"We have been stuck in a mid spring pattern (late March/early April) where the jet stream has been a little farther south than usual. Not everone will agree with this scenario, but we have yet to see a return of normal spring weather for quite some time. Cold, deep upper lows associated with jet stream are not common this far south this time of year . . . we have yet to see a normal pattern. We should see the jet stream over Oregon and Washington moving to the north as strong high pressure aloft moves over the west with building heights. Surface pressures are way too low as weak low pressure systems continue to develop off our coast in association with the upper level jet. We should have strong high pressure off our coast this time of year with the typical night and morning low clouds along the coast: May Gray/June Gloom. This has yet to happen.

I have been hearing through various media outlets that this typical weather for this time of year. But this furthest from the truth. A normal late spring pattern would be a May Gray/June Gloom pattern. This has yet to happen. The 8-14 day CPC outlook calls for rising heights over our area and the 564 line to back over Oregon and Washington. We should not have these cold, upper lows off our coast with rain and snow this far south".

No mention of El Nino, is this still the effects of El Nino,or is the climate changing?

Evidently there are several things happening this year. Here's some more feedback ala the American Meteorological Society discussion board:

"The ocean water off the West Coast is unusually cool, and that helps to perpetuate the pattern, but why is it 6-7 weeks late in the first place? Perhaps a lack of solar activity is a contributor, but the entire globe seems a bit on the cool side since last August. The Southern Hemisphere summer was miserably weak. Record stretches without a 90-degree max temp in Johannesburg! Sweaters worn during the evenings in Rio de Janeiro in February! Cool rain in Perth in January! No hot dry spells, with fires, in and around Sydney! Poor-yield wheat crops in Argentina due to lack of summer warmth!

It isnt just the southwestern U.S. The upper Great Lakes had snow into May this year. Peters Sink, east of Logan Utah, tied the ALL-TIME U.S. record for the month of May this year with -15F. It started in North America last September and October with unusual early-season heavy snows throughout the Midwest, which spread to the eastern U.S. as the fall progressed. I have not heard of any record heat anywhere in the world during the past year (perhaps a few local records for the date this spring in the U.S.).

And if Katma [volcano] should blow and it usually blows after Eyafjallajokul blows we could see another 1783-1784 winter-spring-summer in 2010-2011. I say summer. It might be another year without a summer.

Another opinion"

"Also another factor I believe that might contribute to this temporary cool down, is the low sunspot number we have had over the last 11 years - which is the lowest sunspot number since 1913. I also think that our next solar max in 2012 will look more like a solar minimum experienced in the late 20th Century. In short, if the Solar Constant is lower, as it is during prolonged periods of lower sunspot numbers and solar flares which cause the the Sun's Corona to spew solar storms towards the earth, the result is the Earth becoming cooler".

An another:

"Dont forget that the Arctic Oscillation was a huge factor this winter, record negatives.

Its still negative. See:"

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

Edited May 24, 2010 by happ

[gsn]

Evidently there are several things happening this year. Here's some more feedback ala the American Meteorological Society discussion board:

"The ocean water off the West Coast is unusually cool, and that helps to perpetuate the pattern, but why is it 6-7 weeks late in the first place? Perhaps a lack of solar activity is a contributor, but the entire globe seems a bit on the cool side – since last August. The Southern Hemisphere summer was miserably weak. Record stretches without a 90-degree max temp in Johannesburg! Sweaters worn during the evenings in Rio de Janeiro in February! Cool rain in Perth in January! No hot dry spells, with fires, in and around Sydney! Poor-yield wheat crops in Argentina due to lack of summer warmth!

It isn’t just the southwestern U.S. The upper Great Lakes had snow into May this year. Peters Sink, east of Logan Utah, tied the ALL-TIME U.S. record for the month of May this year with -15F. It started in North America last September and October with unusual early-season heavy snows throughout the Midwest, which spread to the eastern U.S. as the fall progressed. I have not heard of any record heat anywhere in the world during the past year (perhaps a few local records for the date this spring in the U.S.).

And if Katma [volcano] should blow – and it usually blows after Eyafjallajokul blows – we could see another 1783-1784 winter-spring-summer in 2010-2011. I say “summer.” It might be another “year without a summer.”

Another opinion"

"Also another factor I believe that might contribute to this temporary cool down, is the low sunspot number we have had over the last 11 years - which is the lowest sunspot number since 1913. I also think that our next solar max in 2012 will look more like a solar minimum experienced in the late 20th Century. In short, if the Solar Constant is lower, as it is during prolonged periods of lower sunspot numbers and solar flares which cause the the Sun's Corona to spew solar storms towards the earth, the result is the Earth becoming cooler".

An another:

"Don’t forget that the Arctic Oscillation was a huge factor this winter, record negatives.

It’s still negative. See:"

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

What I garner from these observations on the American Meteorological Society board is that even after the event/winter of 2009/2010 that they still don't have a concrete/consenus, theory/explaination as to why it was so below average this year,little lone did they predict it in advance?

It also strikes me that some of these opinions are in direct conflict with the offical stance of the AMS on climate change?

Granted this was but one year ,and climate can't be based on the last year but needs to be viewed over a extended period of time.

But the theory of climate change seems to also be based in part on current trends,is this cooling a current trend,or just an anomoly,who knows? If this had been a record HEAT year ,they would have used that to point out the climate is definately warming!

If they can't tell me why it happened, even AFTER it happened,why would I think they could tell me what is going to happen in the future?

Edited May 24, 2010 by gsn

[PalmGuyWC]

Scott,

I could not agree more. Yesterday a cold front passed through through the San Francisco Bay area and dropped significant amounts of rain, and this morning the temp is 45 F. This is at least 10 degrees colder than normal for this time of the year. News reports are that this may be a record breaking year for cool spring temps in California.

At last, warmer temps are forcast for the rest of the week.

Dick

[Mike in Nelson]

Weather forecasters here in NZ are predicting a change to La Nina this winter. The weather patterns we have experienced recently are typical of La Nina.

[happ]

Scott,

I could not agree more. Yesterday a cold front passed through through the San Francisco Bay area and dropped significant amounts of rain, and this morning the temp is 45 F. This is at least 10 degrees colder than normal for this time of the year. News reports are that this may be a record breaking year for cool spring temps in California.

At last, warmer temps are forcast for the rest of the week.

Dick

Wow, I didn't know it rained that hard in the Bay Area. Nothing down here but any rain this time of the year is quite rare. I am encouraged by the fact that the snowpack is above normal for so late in Spring and drought conditions are over for all but extreme northeast California. This could end up being the coldest May historically for some areas. Quite a warm-up this weekend for a change [could record my first 90F\ 32.2C] for the year.

[Tyrone]

Happ, I don't know where the American Meteorological Discussion Board gets their info from, but this statement is just plain wrong. "The Southern Hemisphere summer was miserably weak. Record stretches without a 90-degree max temp in Johannesburg! Sweaters worn during the evenings in Rio de Janeiro in February! Cool rain in Perth in January! No hot dry spells, with fires, in and around Sydney!"

Perth had not a drop of rain from Nov 2009 until March 2010 which was a record dry spell. Perth's summer just gone was the hottest on record dating from the 1800's. Australia had one of the hottest summers ever. In january we averaged 19C-33C in Perth. And bushfires, yes there are always bushfires in summer, just maybe not as catastrophic as years past. Here on the west coast the town of Toodyay was gutted by fire. I can't really speak for South America or South Africa, but over here the summer just gone was not a weak miserable event. It was really hot and dry.

Best regards

Tyrone

[happ]

Happ, I don't know where the American Meteorological Discussion Board gets their info from, but this statement is just plain wrong. "The Southern Hemisphere summer was miserably weak. Record stretches without a 90-degree max temp in Johannesburg! Sweaters worn during the evenings in Rio de Janeiro in February! Cool rain in Perth in January! No hot dry spells, with fires, in and around Sydney!"

Perth had not a drop of rain from Nov 2009 until March 2010 which was a record dry spell. Perth's summer just gone was the hottest on record dating from the 1800's. Australia had one of the hottest summers ever. In january we averaged 19C-33C in Perth. And bushfires, yes there are always bushfires in summer, just maybe not as catastrophic as years past. Here on the west coast the town of Toodyay was gutted by fire. I can't really speak for South America or South Africa, but over here the summer just gone was not a weak miserable event. It was really hot and dry.

Best regards

Tyrone

Sorry about that Tyrone. Sadly the AMS discussion does not mean that every statement is accurate and the individual who reported the info on Australia has a reputation for exaggerations. Once he was so upset over the slowness of a storm that he predicted it wouldn't rain at all [of-course it did within 15 minutes of his statement]. I will post your data to the society's site if that is alright with you and next time double check or leave the guy's statements out altogether.

[Tyrone]

Happ, I don't know where the American Meteorological Discussion Board gets their info from, but this statement is just plain wrong. "The Southern Hemisphere summer was miserably weak. Record stretches without a 90-degree max temp in Johannesburg! Sweaters worn during the evenings in Rio de Janeiro in February! Cool rain in Perth in January! No hot dry spells, with fires, in and around Sydney!"

Perth had not a drop of rain from Nov 2009 until March 2010 which was a record dry spell. Perth's summer just gone was the hottest on record dating from the 1800's. Australia had one of the hottest summers ever. In january we averaged 19C-33C in Perth. And bushfires, yes there are always bushfires in summer, just maybe not as catastrophic as years past. Here on the west coast the town of Toodyay was gutted by fire. I can't really speak for South America or South Africa, but over here the summer just gone was not a weak miserable event. It was really hot and dry.

Best regards

Tyrone

Sorry about that Tyrone. Sadly the AMS discussion does not mean that every statement is accurate and the individual who reported the info on Australia has a reputation for exaggerations. Once he was so upset over the slowness of a storm that he predicted it wouldn't rain at all [of-course it did within 15 minutes of his statement]. I will post your data to the society's site if that is alright with you and next time double check or leave the guy's statements out altogether.

That's OK. I wasn't meaning to embarrass anyone and especially yourself. I was just surprised to hear something that didn't have a level of truth in it. You can quote me on that forum if you like. No problems.

Best regards

Tyrone

[PalmGuyWC]

I've been enjoying daytime temps in the mid 80's (30 C) the past few days. Last night the minimum was 65.7 F, (18 C) about as warm as nights get in my area.

Dick