Freeze Warning is way South again

[Ken Johnson]

I was planning ahead to next weeks work and looked at Tuesday. We may have a big ass storm then.

Also did ya'lls see the storm headed to Europe? May be a huge mess over there.

I like all the winter rain, much more than usuall here but wind is starting to rip things up.

Tonight there may be snow in Georgia...Again!

[bubba]

KJ, Hope all is well in the Redlands.I find that for the greater part these NWS forecasts are puposely conservative. The reason emanates from a case where they were held liable for a forecast that failed to predict frost when it occurred. For this reason, I think you can be certain that temperature forecasts lean heavily to conservative.

That stated, it has been a horrible Winter that we would all like to forget.I hope the Stoney's are jumping into your traps!

[waykoolplantz]

Too much damage for me to list...

And its not over yet !!

[Mark Heath]

Ken,

What are the predictions for down there? I have'nt seen Tuesdays forecasted low yet, and if it's bad for you, then it is much worse for me!

Like Bubba said, i hope they're just trying to cover their bases!

[epicure3]

KJ, Hope all is well in the Redlands.I find that for the greater part these NWS forecasts are puposely conservative. The reason emanates from a case where they were held liable for a forecast that failed to predict frost when it occurred. For this reason, I think you can be certain that temperature forecasts lean heavily to conservative.

That stated, it has been a horrible Winter that we would all like to forget.I hope the Stoney's are jumping into your traps!

They were held liable for not predicting frost? That is unbelievable.

[gsn]

Updated from yesterdays NWS service forecast as posted in Febuary Freeze topic. They have upgraded the freeze watch to a

freeze warning,the maps look ugly for most interior parts of south Florida. South Florida ,even interior south Florida hitting freezing temps in late Febuary,WTH?

The bottom line is they don't REALLY know how cold it is going to get,unfortunately.They make an educated GUESS!

I agree the NWS does try to be conservative,however having said that, they missed the last night of our multiple Janurary freezes considerably HIGH at least here. It got much colder here than was predicted, 24.4F to be exact. So they can MISS it either way,I have seen it time and time again!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

448 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010

FLZ063-066-067-070-251800-

/O.UPG.KMFL.FZ.A.0011.100226T1000Z-100226T1300Z/

/O.NEW.KMFL.FZ.W.0013.100226T1000Z-100226T1300Z/

GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...PAHOKEE...

SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...IMMOKALEE

448 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY. THE

FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY

EVENING WILL BRING WITH IT MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING DOWN THE

PENINSULA. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT

WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW

FREEZING ACROSS GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND PALM BEACH...AND INLAND

COLLIER COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL MAINLY BE ALONG

AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 IN INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NORTH OF

HIGHWAY 41 IN INLAND COLLIER COUNTY ALONG WITH ALL OF GLADES AND

HENDRY COUNTIES.

[Eric in Orlando]

34-35F predicted here in town, but breezy so no frost.

[palmsOrl]

NWS now showing 30 F for the low in Maitland, and 31 F for the city of Orlando. I guess it is time to put everything in the greenhouse, again! Meanwhile, I am enjoying the nice crisp, cool temps, they will be gone soon enough. Then it's into the oven for 6 + months.

-Michael

[gsn]

I'm glad someone is enjoying this weather!

I just checked the dew points for our area, as of 4:00PM and they are not good,they are all in the low to mid 20's!

If the wind dies like they were predicting this morning,we are in for prime radiational freeze conditions...

The updated NWS map just got alot more BLUE in Florida since this morning...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Edited February 25, 2010 by gsn

[floridasun]

Well at least it wont be a long cold i think its gonna be a long time before we get a winter like this again, and maybe next winter well get some more 80s........lol i dont think well be looking forward to 80s after summer they should send fema down here to replace things

Edited February 25, 2010 by floridasun

[SunnyFl]

I'm glad someone is enjoying this weather!

I just checked the dew points for our area, as of 4:00PM and they are not good,they are all in the low to mid 20's!

If the wind dies like they were predicting this morning,we are in for prime radiational freeze conditions...

The updated NWS map just got alot more BLUE in Florida since this morning...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/

Yeah, it looks bad all over, with the dreaded light blue all over the map. Here's the Discussion from Ruskin NWS this afternoon:

IT SHOULD BE A VERY STRONG NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING

WITH A DECENT DRAINAGE FLOW ESTABLISHING A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY

WIND. WILL NOT GO AS COLD AS GUIDANCE STILL...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO

CONTINUE ALL EXISTING FREEZE WARNINGS AND EXPAND THE HARD FREEZE

TO CITRUS AS CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS. ALSO

ADDED FROST MENTION :rage: AS THE RH VALUES IN THE SOUTH GET QUITE HIGH

TONIGHT.

and so on. and on and on.

winter without end.

[SunnyFl]

Update from later this afternoon, from the Hazardous Wx Statement:

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...

CANADIAN AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW MINIMUM

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE

NATURE COAST AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS

OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY TONIGHT FOR LEVY

COUNTY.

Yet, they raised our overnight low from 39 (which is what they predicted this morning for tonight's low) to 40F again. Excuse me? I find this really hard to believe as it's biting cold out there now.

And notice Ken Johnson started this thread with a concern about a bad storm on Tuesday. argh.

[bubba]

Epic, NWS is a definite target for those adversely effected. It is by no means a slam dunk but NWS was found liable in 3 cases involving plane crashes(Ingham v. US 373 F.2d 227(2nd Cir.1967); Martin v. US 448F. Supp.855(E.D. Ark.1977)and Springer v. US 641 F. Supp.913(D.S.C.1986)and a marine case that was overturned by an Appellate Court in Brown v. US 599F. Supp.877(D. Mass. 1984).

By implication, NWS certainly is wary of liability for wrong forecasts and you can be certain that they err heavily on the side of caution.

[FRITO]

lol, You have a point about Ken starting the thread!

next tuesday weather.com com isnt saying anything worse than what we are going through now. they say 59/35 with rain. South florida will e fine long as the bottom doesnt drop out!

Meanwhile we are expecting low 20's tonight - a hard freeze!! Caqnna lilly keep growing then geting burned the past couple weeks.

cold is getting old,

Luke

[gsytch]

My question is: Why are they even bothering with hard freeze and freeze warnings for Levy Citrus and the Gainesville areas? Like anything is alive that could freeze there? I mean, how many 20-25F nights do they need to kill everything? Really? Greg

[Zeeth]

So, for what will hopefully be the last time for a while, I brought everything in and wrapped my coconut palm. Of course, when I was bringing everything out last time, I thought that would be the last time too, but here I am, a week later, hauling palms in again. 3 weeks from sunday is the first day of spring, and March 11th is the latest day in winter a freeze has ever been recorded here, so here's crossing my fingers that this spell is the last of the winter and we can get growing again.

Wow... I just was looking through our winter data, 1961 must have been an odd winter for palm growing. Record cold 2 days in a row of 25F and 28F, but then many days were record breaking highs in a row. Highs in the high 80's and 90's for February and March.

[epicure3]

Epic, NWS is a definite target for those adversely effected. It is by no means a slam dunk but NWS was found liable in 3 cases involving plane crashes(Ingham v. US 373 F.2d 227(2nd Cir.1967); Martin v. US 448F. Supp.855(E.D. Ark.1977)and Springer v. US 641 F. Supp.913(D.S.C.1986)and a marine case that was overturned by an Appellate Court in Brown v. US 599F. Supp.877(D. Mass. 1984).

By implication, NWS certainly is wary of liability for wrong forecasts and you can be certain that they err heavily on the side of caution.

Still a ridiculous blame game. Weather is not an exact science.

[bubba]

Epic, Not disagreeing...just sayin....

[Mats]

I find that for the greater part these NWS forecasts are puposely conservative. The reason emanates from a case where they were held liable for a forecast that failed to predict frost when it occurred. For this reason, I think you can be certain that temperature forecasts lean heavily to conservative.

The NWS was held liable for failing to predict frost? I didn't read the particulars of the 4 cases you referenced, but see they are from 20 to 40 years ago.

What role did a faulty frost forecast possibly play in those plane crashes?

[Zeeth]

No freeze, but there WAS light frost. I protected everything that needed it, but this is just an insult in an already terrible winter to have frost this late in the year.

[floridasun]

Light Frost here in SOUTH brevard too!!!!!!! oh well at least its not like january. dosnt brevard have the same climate as manatee and sarasota countys. cause we have the gulf stream?.

Edited February 26, 2010 by floridasun

[Steve the palmreader]

The lowest temp. I recorded last night here on Pine Island (lee county) was 43 but there was frost on some roof tops.How is this possible?

[Eric in Orlando]

35f here

[palmislandRandy]

44F was the low in Western Palm Beach County last night, although the prediction was to be in the upper 30s!

[bubba]

Matts, These cases did not involve frost forecasts. However,the precedents set by these cases against NWS may be extended in virtually limitless directions using the precedent.A forecast that negligently fails to predict frost can have an adverse impact on many farmers and growers. Accordingly, you can be certain that when in doubt,NWS plays conservative.As an example,if 35F is the real number, in no way be suprised if the forecast calls for 32F.

[happ]

It is understandable to blame the weather service, esp during unseasonable\ damaging conditions. The blame game in LA is who is responsible for the mud slides. Mayors of foothill towns\ county services blame the fire dept for grossly underestimating strength of the "Station\ Santa Anita" fires last autumn w/ resulting big $ losses from mud & landslides. NWS_LA is nervous about getting even the strength of thunderstorm cells correct or face public wrath. No respect!

What's incredible about this winter in the U.S. South is the unheard of anomaly in temps. Climatology [what has occurred historically] is inconsistent with these weird Florida freezes. The lesson is never underestimate the unpredictably of mother nature's cold!

[gsn]

Still a ridiculous blame game. Weather is not an exact science.

I don't blame the NWS service for the weather that actually happens,or any other weather service for that matter. How should they be held responsible for something that doesn't always add up to 2+2 = 4

I also don't belive that the NWS service pads their forecast for safety/liability concerns. As many times other weather services give lower temp forecasts,or different pop,or higher wind forecasts because of the models they use,or the way they analize the information they have and use.

Having said that, what IRKS me is the fact that they want their cake and eat it to. They act like it is an exact science and will try to make you beleive it is an exact science. But in all reality there are so many variables to predicting the weather that they are not much better at it than they were 60 years years ago, before the advent of satelites,radar,and computers. As a matter of fact since computers,I personally feel they rely much to heavily on MODELS. Studying the weather AFTER it has happened is an exact science,they can tell what happened and why it happened after the fact, but forecasting is a crap shoot,to many things can change over the long term, or even the very short term!

The reason the "blame game" and lack of respect comes into play is because weatherpeople want to ACT like they know exactly what is going to happen,when they really don't! Add HYPE, who got the forecast first, who is the most accurate, who is more reliable into the mix, and you have a situation where weatherpeople set themselves up for embarassment,and second guessing!

Edited February 26, 2010 by gsn

[bubba]

I am not doing a good job of making my point.This is not about blaming anyone for a bad Winter. This is about why the NWS errs heavily conservative in it's forecasts. For example, Randy reports 44F in SW PB County when the prediction was 39F. All I am saying is that if it is a flip of the coin for a prediction of frost as compared to a prediction of no frost, you can bet your bippy that NWS predicts frost.

Why would they do that? Because the NWS can have potential liability for money damages if a farmer relies on the no frost forecast and looses 500 acres of Winter corn.Alternatively, if the NWS calls for frost and it does not come, no harm, no foul.

[happ]

bubba

Is there a case where the NWS was sued for blowing a frost forecast? Coming from the perspective of meteorology, I know that weathermen do sweat it out on forecasts [esp under 24-hours]. As you point out, the models can vary from each other and change from run to run. Personally, I like the fact that predicting weather is not an exact science but what science is precise?

[gsn]

Mathematics, physics, chemistry, and biology, are just a few that come to mind as EXACT and precise sciences!

[rozpalm]

I am not doing a good job of making my point.This is not about blaming anyone for a bad Winter. This is about why the NWS errs heavily conservative in it's forecasts. For example, Randy reports 44F in SW PB County when the prediction was 39F. All I am saying is that if it is a flip of the coin for a prediction of frost as compared to a prediction of no frost, you can bet your bippy that NWS predicts frost.

Why would they do that? Because the NWS can have potential liability for money damages if a farmer relies on the no frost forecast and looses 500 acres of Winter corn.Alternatively, if the NWS calls for frost and it does not come, no harm, no foul.

How can the farmer have any basis for perusing a tort against an agency which he had no contract, implied or otherwise? Do farmers pay for these reports or is paying your taxes considered consideration enough to make it an implied contract with a governmental agency?

[bubba]

Happ, There are no reported appellate cases but that does not mean it has not happened before. I recall a very late freeze in early March that hit the Glades one year in the 1980's. The NWS was completly off the mark and some bad financial damge resulted from corn damage.I recall that several growers sued and confidential settlements were reached.The NWS, like other corporations and agencies, will go out of it's way to pay-off in order to cover up mistakes and not have them in the Bright Lights of trial court or apellate victories.

The NWS does a great service for our country.They expect and know they are relied upon.If they are truly negligent(and it is a borderline egregious standard that must be met) together with the proximate cause of a loss, they bear legal responsibility. In the Ingham case referred to, the NWS information showed clear conditions when in fact it was a swirling fog. The Eastern airliner went down killing 30 people and injuring another 30.That is what we are talking about.

[gsytch]

33.8F here in New Port Richey. Very light frost on my car top, and in open field down the street. Funny...they took the frost warning off and kept the freeze warning in. The opposite occurred! I am sooooooooooooooooooo sick of the cold! Greg

[SunnyFl]

bubba

Coming from the perspective of meteorology, I know that weathermen do sweat it out on forecasts [esp under 24-hours]. As you point out, the models can vary from each other and change from run to run.

Excuse me for diverging from the point Bubba was making, but I want to mention a dilemma with forecasting. Meteorologists are sensitive to public opinion - and they are really between a rock and a hard place. If they predict worst-case (which we, on this forum, would prefer that they do so we can make preparations), but then the cold-event isn't as bad as forecast - then quite a number of the public gets p****d off and rants about "hyping." OTOH, if they miss the forecast by being too optimistic - which happened where Scott is - then people are caught offguard and unprepared.

Most of us here would prefer to protect and find after the fact that the cold event wasn't as severe as forecast. I'm going out on a limb here, but my guess is that most people on this forum would also prefer, when a hurricane threatened, that we hear worst case, so we can plan accordingly. A lot of people don't feel this way - and really go batsh** when the storm isn't as bad as it could have been - go to any storm forum, and you'll find this. (Umm - are they sad their homes didn't get wrecked??)

So I think concerns about public opinion is why the model output sometimes doesn't get factored into the forecast.

Btw, this happened to us - last night! I saw the mention of frost in the discussion, but not the forecast. By the time I saw it, my husband had left and since I can't walk yet, the bottle didn't get protected. SURPRISEEEE! Solid ice on the windshields this morning, and some frost on the plants. Our low was about 36...

And it's happening again: no mention of frost in the forecast, but it's right there in the Discussion. Along with this ominous line: "WILL NOT GO AS COLD AS GUIDANCE...BUT WILL MENTION PATCHY FROST." So, if the guidance is correct, we may see colder temps than the 44F forecast.

Edited February 27, 2010 by SunnyFl

[Jimbean]

Light Frost here in SOUTH brevard too!!!!!!! oh well at least its not like january. dosnt brevard have the same climate as manatee and sarasota countys. cause we have the gulf stream?.

Supposed to be, but it has not! The freeze damage that I am seeing around here is bad. There are defoliated queens in Port St. John.

[Mats]

I am not doing a good job of making my point.This is not about blaming anyone for a bad Winter. This is about why the NWS errs heavily conservative in it's forecasts. For example, Randy reports 44F in SW PB County when the prediction was 39F. All I am saying is that if it is a flip of the coin for a prediction of frost as compared to a prediction of no frost, you can bet your bippy that NWS predicts frost.

Why would they do that? Because the NWS can have potential liability for money damages if a farmer relies on the no frost forecast and looses 500 acres of Winter corn.Alternatively, if the NWS calls for frost and it does not come, no harm, no foul.

I understand your point Bubba, I just don't buy it.

How would the farmer protect 500 acres of 'Winter corn' even if the NWS called for frost? It's not like he's got smudge pots or fans like an orange grove.

[bubba]

Mats, I used a hypothetical of a 500 acre corn field for an illustration. The battle of frost in Glades farming is fought not with smudge pots but helicopters.In a freeze you can have 15 choppers in close proximity and it is very sucessful in mitigating frost.

I am not selling anything and I know it happened.Whether you agree or not ,our court system has found NWS liable before for negligent forecasting.The sole point I am making is that NWS forecasts err on the side of conservative.Therefore, in a coin toss, they elect to take the lower number because of liability.