This Socal weather sucks...

[STEVE IN SO CAL]

I feel like I must have clicked my heels and wound up in Kansas somehow. Cold and wind, gusting to 50+ mph. It's like a fricken hurricane outside.

I picked a great year to plant my field nursery...record heat this summer(up to 118f), with oppressive heat for weeks on end. Then many hours of subfreezing temps in Dec, and now this....If my plants survive this winter, it will be a miracle.

I think I'll go clean the 1/2 ton of debris out of my pool now....

[elHoagie]

In Altadena there usually isn't much wind...  except for last night.  I think we had 60 km/hr (40 mph) wind, which is the second strongest I've seen here in three years.  My 3m (10 ft) tall Bismarckia now has a 45 degree lean and a few broken roots visible above ground near the base.  I'm mad enough to use a TreeStump emoticon   ...

[STEVE IN SO CAL]

Hard to capture wind with a camera...here's my Ensetes being shredded and bent

This travelers palm had barely any damage this winter..

Found this dead Calif Fence Lizard in my driveway. I surmise he was hibernating in /under something that got air born and he ended up dead...I buy and feed my local lizards mealworms, so this is getting personal now!!!

[STEVE IN SO CAL]

Good call, Jack...I just went out and tied my biggest Biz to the fence.

[doubravsky]

This is the worst winter for winds I've had since I started growing tropicals (5 yrs). . and Riverside always has some nasty winds. I had to cut off all my musas' leaves and even the Ensetes, which usually take the wind pretty well.

And now that the canopy palms near the house (queens and kings) are a little bigger, their fronds scratch their way across the stucco in the winds all the stupid night long!

I HATE WIND! (except when it staves off a frost)

[elHoagie]

(STEVE IN SO CAL @ Jan. 05 2007,13:41)

QUOTE

Good call, Jack...I just went out and tied my biggest Biz to the fence.

I hope yours stays vertical... I think I need to go buy some heavy duty stakes to tie mine to.

By the way, I like that soil you have.  Definitely the lightest weight of any potting mix I've ever used.

[Randyp]

I've been in the Riverside area for some time now and never really minded the winds until this year when I became interested in Palms.  During the summer I had visions of my backyard being turned into a tropical oasis of many types of palms and exotic plants seen in many gardens on this board.

Over this past month I have narrowed my vision considerably and am becoming more realistic in what I will eventually be able to put in the ground.

The winds at my home would destroy most of the more delicate and beautiful species that are in many of your collections and that is if the blazing heat of summer or the more recent frosty nights didn't get them first.

I've had my eye out lately of the psudo Canary Island cell phone relay towers about town. They seem to be holding up pretty well......

Randy

[happ]

Looks like the worst of the winds are over though should stay windy into early next week.  The single digit humidity & below zero dew points mean more irrigation.  Nearly every storm has been moisture-starved but windy this winter.

The noted climatologist, Dr. Patzert was interviewed on the radio yesterday.  He indicated that El Nino would finally begin pushing the subtropical jet into SoCal for heavy rainfall later this month.  

It was chilly yesterday but will warm up nicely this coming week before a possible cold front later.

It is 46F @ 5:30AM  

[elHoagie]

With a gangsta lean

[elHoagie]

The roots...

[elHoagie]

Post verticalization

[Don Little]

Nice looking bismarckia, did you doing anything to make sure it stays upright in case of more winds? The winds here have died down but were blowing pretty hard last night here.  Looking forward to the 78's that were projected to have monday and tuesday, it will be a respite but not sure how long.

[elHoagie]

Don, I got a couple of heavy duty stakes that are keeping it up via a durable steel wire. The bracing seems pretty solid, but hopefully it won't get tested.

[Scott]

Steve, impressive wind picture. They're not so easy to get - ie. in a way that really conveys the conditions.

Jack, please keep us informed on your Bizzie. I live in a wind tunnel, and have yet to plant mine. I better put four posts when I do. The only problem is you wind up looking at posts, and not so much the palm.

Happ, the rains are good news, but where I live it ALWAYS produced high winds afterwards. So everything dries right out.

They say this years is gonna be worse for the heat. I don't want any worse than last year. That was awful! I'm always worried about fires.

[Dave-Vero]

Nice righting job.  Judging from results here, the plant should be happy.  I suspect it may also be more stable when it gets older.

[Don Little]

Scott,

I heard the same thing that even though last year was the hottest on record, this year will be even worse if you can believe that.  I guess look on the positive side which means another year of incredible growth rates, at least for the heat loving palms.

[happ]

Get ready for possibly the worst wind storm in 60 years  

Here's today statement from the LA chapter of the American Meteorological Society :

"This upcoming weekend we are going to see one of the strongest Santa Ana Wind events seen here in Los Angeles since the late 1940s.  Along with the strong winds, we could see 500 mb heights down to 536 dm over Downtown Los Angeles by next Friday – with a very intense northwest jet core max right over us.  

Even with this Type II El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, the SSTs are not warm enough or in the right location to position the persistent Eastern Pacific Anti-Cyclone north enough for the jet to undercut it – perhaps in February or March we could see the subtropical jet undercut, forming a week long classic or “rex” high blocking pattern.

However, at this time it looks as though we could see sustained winds over the canyons of the Santa Monica Mountains to the Hollywood Hills reach storm force (30 to 55 mph) with gusts beyond Category I Hurricane Force (> 75 mph); the valleys a bit higher with sustained winds from 40-65 mph with gusts up to 80 possibly 90 mph.  The mountain areas could see gusts again over 100 mph, but this time possibly as high as 120 mph!  All of this is slated to happen from next Thursday night and continue through next weekend – this means a period of storm force plus winds over a large area of the South Coast Air Basin for almost 60 hours.

The scary part of this scenario is the low moisture content of the air and record breaking dry spell we have been having and will continue to have.  Similar to the late 1940s, this pattern continued for years, well in the early 1950s; with each subsequent year having a greater and more expansive artic outbreak over the western states.  In short, don’t expect above normal rainfall this year – as matter of cold - dry fact – I think we will be lucky to hit 8 to 10 inches tops.  Therefore, the fire danger is going to be its highest seen here in over 50 years.  

All local governmental officials should be on stand by status this upcoming weekend for a possibly precarious situation over the Southland Mountains and even hills of our city areas.  Additionally, the particulate pollution indexes of PM10 and PM2.5 will be at extreme levels – igniting the concern of health advisories by our local AQMD".

In the meantime, it will be warm & sunny.  But bad things are going to happen    

[Don Little]

The next couple of days look great but after that it looks downright scary.  I sure hope those forecasts from thursday to sunday don't pan out, that would be the coldest this year.  Let's hope for the best

Tonight

Jan 7  Clear / Wind

N/A/50° 0%  

Mon

Jan 8  Sunny / Wind

79°/49° 0%  

 79°F

Tue

Jan 9  Sunny

81°/47° 0%  

 81°F

Wed

Jan 10  Mostly Sunny

70°/45° 10%  

 70°F

Thu

Jan 11  Scattered Showers

56°/36° 30%  

 56°F

Fri

Jan 12  Scattered Showers

52°/31° 30%  

 52°F

Sat

Jan 13  Sunny / Wind

54°/33° 10%  

 54°F

Sun

Jan 14  Sunny

61°/36° 10%  

 61°F

Mon

Jan 15  Sunny

61°/40° 0%  

 61°F

Tue

Jan 16  Sunny

66°/37° 0%  

 66°F

[doubravsky]

Just looked at weather.com for my zip code, and it said Friday night's low is predicted at 26!...

That's scary... I've not seen below a couple brief nights at 28 before...

[spockvr6]

Are these vicious winds also going to coincide with the cold overnight temps?

[doubravsky]

That's what it looks like... not good not good not good ...(insert lots of wringing of the hands here)

[ZoneTenNut]

That is really cold for Riverside. I checked Yucaipa, as my brother lives there and they are predicted to get down to 24F. Lets hope the forecast is wrong and you don't get anywhere near these temps.

If all else fails, I find a hairdryer works great to start a microclimate.  

[doubravsky]

I sure hope it's wrong. We'll see... I've checked a few other sites, like the NWS, which says 29 as the minimum. That's not too bad....

[happ]

(doubravsky @ Jan. 08 2007,18:29)

QUOTE

I sure hope it's wrong. We'll see... I've checked a few other sites, like the NWS, which says 29 as the minimum. That's not too bad....

Dave Doubravsky

Here's NWS data for Riverside issued this afternoon :

RIVERSIDE

TUES :   SUNNY  45/82

WED :  SUNNY  45/66

THURS :  MOCLDY  45/59

FRI :  MOCLDY  41/56

SAT : PTCLDY  37/57    

SUN :  SUNNY  35/59    

SUN :  SUNNY    35/59        

Cold but not damaging.  I worry more about the wind  

[osideterry]

Keep in mind the attached graphic is for 92057-Oceanside. In what scenario does 26F and rain at the same time not equal snow or sleet?

Oceanside?

[spockvr6]

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 08 2007,18:19)

QUOTE

If all else fails, I find a hairdryer works great to start a microclimate.  

"Microclimate generators"

[ZoneTenNut]

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 08 2007,22:21)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 08 2007,18:19)

QUOTE

If all else fails, I find a hairdryer works great to start a microclimate.  

"Microclimate generators"

So there are others with this disease. I've found a support group!  

[happ]

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 08 2007,22:21)

QUOTE

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 08 2007,18:19)

QUOTE

If all else fails, I find a hairdryer works great to start a microclimate.  

"Microclimate generators"

:laugh:

We may need a lot of heating devices by this weekend.    I've never used anything but don't have very sensitive palms/plants anyway.  Overstory definitely helps.  I did lose a papaya in 1987 even though covered by a sheet.

Lots of uncertainty/apprehension as NWS struggles w/ forecasting upcoming event.  

[i.e NWS-LA 01-09-07

" . . . ALL EYES NOW ON THURSDAY. GFS AND WRF ARE NOW A LITTLE MORE WEST WITH THE TROF AND THUS WETTER. EC CONTINUES ITS SOLUTION FURTHER TO THE EAST AND PREFER THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF ITS SOLUTION TO THE DIPSY-DANCY GFS. STILL HAVE A FAIRLY WISHY WASHY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANY HUNDRED OR SO MILE CHANGE IN THE SOLUTION WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE RESULTANT FORECAST. DID UP THE POPS ON THE NORTHERN SLOPES WHERE THE NORTH WINDS WILL GENERATE GOOD UPSLOPE. JUST TO MUDDY THE WATERS FURTHER THERE A LITTLE SUB TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT FLITS OVER BAJA THURSDAY RIDING ALONG ON A 110 KT SUB TROPICAL JET.  RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY SOUTH...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED."

Like that part about the proximity of the sub-tropical jet.  

Predicting max's in the 50's even under sunny skies ; very unusual  ???  

PROJECTED FORECAST:

>>>>>>>>>>>> FRI >>> SAT >>> SUN

SAN FRANCISCO : 37/52    38/53    39/54    

LOS ANGELES : 41/54    39/57    41/62    

SAN DIEGO : 45/55    43/57    41/59    

Contrary to the earlier in the week AMS forecast, NWS calls for strong winds but nothing close to "historic."  

This is  real fingernail-biting time.  

Such a radical change from current warmth w/ 80's widespread again today  :cool:

[osideterry]

I've been watering about once a week, but skipping if it rains a bit. I watered this morning because everything is so dry and it was almost 50F outside.

It looks to rain before the nasty-freeze hits. Is all this ground water good or bad?

[gsn]

Terry,

I have always been under the impression that fairly heavy   ground watering the day before a freeze helps,as the water in the ground releases heat.

Also it helps palms retain moisture with drying cold winds.  I don't know about cali though, clay holds moisture for a longer period of time, and I hear you guys saying the cool wet conditions causes  alot of problem for ya'll? That's what I do here in Florida anyway,right or wrong?  ???

I guess I still really don't understand your California weather though.

With those temps it amazes me you are in a ZONE 10a???

I can't remeber ever having that long of a cold spell here in central Florida ,even  in the 1989 freeze the lows didn't last that long!

Good luck ,hope everyhting survives the cold spell!

[ghar41]

(osideterry @ Jan. 08 2007,21:53)

QUOTE

Keep in mind the attached graphic is for 92057-Oceanside. In what scenario does 26F and rain at the same time not equal snow or sleet?

Oceanside?

Ok...I'll tell you what's really crazy about this system is that here in Modesto, Alaska the same website is predicting a low on Friday of 22 F.

Since when is the difference between Oceanside and Modesto a measly 4 deg F !?!?  

[happ]

Terry,

I am also surprised by those projected temps  ???

I know that some of the coldest air traps in northern San Diego county, esp around Oceanside.  Not exactly sure what causes this but have a theory :

Lack of night winds due to the topography.  San Diego county's coastal & inland regions back up to fairly high mountains [pennisular running north/south].  The lowlands below mesas and especially near bottom land/mostly dry riverbeds collects this cold descending air.  Vista/San Luis Rey/Camp Pendleton/Oceanside sit in the cold pockets w/ little wind to mix the air.

If you look at minimum readings, often Oceanside/north San Diego county are the coldest [sometimes over 20 degrees colder than San Diego bayside cities].

Probably one of the most vulnerable areas for frost in coastal SoCal.  For example Newport Beach compared to Temecula is much warmer on still winter nights.

Also, most weather sites do not support the forecast lows you are listing but still predict below freezing on at least 2-3 nights. NWS/AccuWeather/Weather Channel continue to lower the forecast minimums for this weekend w/ 30's widespread across the valleys & many coastal areas in Orange & LA counties also.

Here's the latest weekend forecast statement from NWS-SAN DIEGO 1-9-07 2100h

COLD AT NIGHT IN AREAS PROTECTED FROM

THE WIND AND FROST ADVISORIES OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. THE

COLDEST MORNINGS SHOULD BE SAT...SUN AND MON...BUT WINDS WILL CAUSE

FLUCTUATING MIN TEMPS THAT WILL LIMIT FROST DURATIONS.

Curious what your terrain is like  ???

In-any-event, good luck & start watering.  ::

[osideterry]

I watered today and will tomorrow also. I think weather.com might be measuring from the Oceanside airport, right on the edge of the San Luis Rey River. I'm part way up a hill, maybe 50-100 ft above the basin. Still, I've hit 30F on multiple occasions 3 years in a row.

[Walter John]

(elHoagie @ Jan. 07 2007,03:50)

QUOTE

Post verticalization

That's what we must do.

[doubravsky]

Happ... thanks for the updated forecast... I had looked at www.weather.com which had the lows in the mid-20s. I like the NWS forecast much better!

[elHoagie]

(happ @ Jan. 09 2007,20:48)

QUOTE

Lack of night winds due to the topography.  San Diego county's coastal & inland regions back up to fairly high mountains [pennisular running north/south].  The lowlands below mesas and especially near bottom land/mostly dry riverbeds collects this cold descending air.  Vista/San Luis Rey/Camp Pendleton/Oceanside sit in the cold pockets w/ little wind to mix the air.

Happ,

I agree.  The long, relatively wide canyon east of Oceanside means the city is collecting all the cold air draining from within 10-15 km away.  That's a lot of cold air collecting in one place!

I think the relatively cold temperatures in Altadena are caused by a similar effect.  Consider a south facing hillside in Mt Washington at an elevation of 300m and a location on the south facing hillside in Altadena at the same elevation.  Both locations have similar topography and a similar amount of ocean influence, so why is it 3C (6F) or more colder in Altadena on clear nights?  I think the reason is that the hillside Altadena is located on keeps going to an elevation of 1000+m, while the hillside in Mt Washington isn't much higher than 300m.  So, in Altadena we have 700 vertical meters of cold air flowing down past us, while the Mt Washington location has little/no cold air flowing past.

[osideterry]

Winemakers in Temecula will point out a v-shaped notch in the mountains to the west, and explain that ocean breezes flow through there, creating a climate ideal for wine grape growing.

That notch is the San Luis Rey River, and I believe the process works in reverse during winter Santa Ana conditions. Cold air, like water, seeks it's lowest point. In Temecula, that cold air drains down the Santa Margarita and San Luis Rey Rivers.

[happ]

Totally agree & appreciate astute observations : Terry/Jack  

It's not just elevation but position.  Mt Wilson is 5800' [Jack's backyard] steeply descending into the San Gabriel valley.  There are several weather stations in Altadena w/ some variability.

Ever noticed the conditions from San Rafael Hills [west of Pasadena] & Whittier Hills?  Another example is Getty Musuem as it sits high on a hilltop looking down on Santa Monica bay & downtown LA ; one of the warmest reporting stations in the city for winter minimums.  UCLA/Malibu/Beverly Hills/Hollywood Hills/Silverlake/El Sereno/etc are zone 11.

Need to be as close to the hilltop as possible.  It can drop more than 10 degrees on my car thermometer just driving down to the supermarket during early mornings.

There's sort of a triangle from Temecula/Murrieta & spreading out into San Diego county.  Areas around Fallbrook/Ramona/Rancho Bernardo/Poway are often quite a bit cooler than San Diego on winter nights & even a bit cooler on summer nights [even after hot summer maximums].

Have relatives/friends in Rancho Penasquitos/Tierrasanta who have never seen frost  :laugh:

Redondo Beach has observed several nights in the 30's this winter yet nearby LAX has not.  There's a sudden drop in the basin around Imperial Highway of over 100'. The airport sits at the feet of Ladera Heights & on a bluff over the beach.  All these features figure in  

[STEVE IN SO CAL]

This is on the NOAA site this a/m re San Diego inland valleys..

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH

MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD DRY OFFSHORE FLOW COULD CAUSE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO DROP

INTO THE MID 20S SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL CAUSE

FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE LOCAL LONG

DURATIONS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.

THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION

[osideterry]

I wrapped my C. gigas, R. regia, A. alexandra, and two W. bifurcatas with burlap last night. Tonight I'm going to wrap my remaining zone 10a palms. We all seem to be dropping a zone this weekend.