Will We Have Another Cool Summer in California?

[happ]

Last summer was at the height of one of the strongest La Nina [cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific ocean] in history. The California coast as well as the Pacific Northwest experienced record cool conditions [i.e. San Diego coolest summer ever] due to ocean temps up to 10 degrees F below normal. Not a happy time for palm growers near the beach.

La Nina is over but residual cooling remains along the West Coast. Noted climatologist, Dr Patzert of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is predicting a cooler than normal summer

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/home_blog/2011/05/la-storm-watch.html

Keep in mind that Patzert also predicted a very dry rain year when in actuality we experienced a very wet rain season. But we do know that cool oceans generally translate into cool temps along the coastal strip. NOAA, on the other hand, is predicting a warmer than normal summer in the Southwest so maybe it will be warmer than what Patzert is forecasting.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

[MattyB]

Well, they just can't say, "I don't know" because they'd be out of a job.

[trioderob]

the thing is that southern california is kind of weird.

go inland 5 - 9 miles and you are in the "subtropical" zone where palms grow

much better than on the coast.

typ day is 78 in summer on the coast with clouds part of the day

in the primo subtropical zone its 87 with 100% sunshine all day

so even if you have a cold winter on the coast, inland you are still getting days

in the low 80s

the primo zone 23 is where you want to be if you are growing palms

(the coast zone 24 ? -too cold and cloudy, too short a growing season)

Edited May 23, 2011 by trioderob

[MattyB]

I see what you're getting at. But keep in mind that the different zones are just that, different.

If you have a small yard on the coast you can grow lots of neat New Caledonian and Lord Howe Island stuff very happily right out in the full sun. In other words you don't need to create a canopy which might overpower a small residential lot, like you need to if you want to grow some of these species inland. Just look at Pogobob's garden for an example; beautiful. So there's other factors to consider than just extra daytime heat. I love that there's so many different species of plants to choose from that you can find plenty of plants that will thrive for you no matter what zone you live in.

[trioderob]

yea - gave up on growing Chambeyronia macrocarpa.

they fried to a crisp at my place.

you had any luck with them in spring valley ?

[Dypsisdean]

the thing is that southern california is kind of weird.

go inland 5 - 9 miles and you are in the "subtropical" zone where palms grow

much better than on the coast.

typ day is 78 in summer on the coast with clouds part of the day

in the primo subtropical zone its 87 with 100% sunshine all day

so even if you have a cold winter on the coast, inland you are still getting days

in the low 80s

the primo zone 23 is where you want to be if you are growing palms

(the coast zone 24 ? -too cold and cloudy, too short a growing season)

That's been an age old SoCal palm grower's discussion. Are the advantages of higher daytime types inland more important than the higher humidity and higher nighttime temps on the coast? As Matty elluded to, the answer is probably yes for some species and no for others.

[MattyB]

Yes, I was trying to figure out how to include humidity into my point but I'm not that clever and gave up.

Triode,

All of my Chambeyronia are still small and are either under 30% shade cloth or under the protective canopy of another tree, at least for a portion of the day. That is how I planned on growing them, with something above them or next to them so that they don't have to be in the full sun for the entire day. That said, I have seen Chambeyronia in full sun inland and it can be done with lots of water. Palmgrover has a monster in full, all day sun, and he's in the same area as you. But again, lots of water, or in Bob's case, poorly draining clay soil. They seem to love it. They're just very slow to acclimate, even on the coast, but eventually they're ok, sort of like Howea. Ever notice how Chambeyronia seem to wobble forever before they 'lock in'? I think they are real whimps in root development when they are young. Funny, because they eventually form a really large palm, very robust once full grown.

[BS Man about Palms]

Very salient points Matty..

[trioderob]

are the nights really that much warmer on the coast ?

in summer they sure are not.

winter time is colder inland.

problem with warm nights in winter is that the palms are not growing anyway.

on the other hand more risk of frost and killing something

interesting trade off

Edited May 24, 2011 by trioderob

[BS Man about Palms]

Rob, Generally I can grow most anything here... just SLOWLY as I rarely get enough heat for rapid growth. But as Matty alluded to, the New Cal palms are quite happy here.

Before some one points it out (NOT EVERY PALM) will grow here..

[Dypsisdean]

are the nights really that much warmer on the coast ?

in summer they sure are not.

winter time is colder inland.

problem with warm nights in winter is that the palms are not growing anyway.

on the other hand more risk of frost and killing something

interesting trade off

I would say for June, July, and August, they are not all that different. But for the other 3/4 of the year I would say the coastal strip is easily 10 degrees warmer at night, depending of course on what place on the coast, and what place inland you are doing the comparison - because I know some ultra low protected spots on the coast that are probably colder than Matty's place on the colder nights - but as a general rule, apples to apples, I would say 10 degrees is a safe bet, for at the least 1/2 the year. Just check the local weather map on the nightly news, when they put up the nighttime lows.

[MattyB]

Yes dean is right. My hyophorbes are getting spotty and tip burn due to my mid to low 40's and the coast will be around 50 and hyophorbe still look perfect there. The benefits of my hillside microclimate arent realized until we really start to get frosty nights, then I seem to bottom out at 38, and on those nights everyone else will be colder. I have just the perfect climate to keep things alive and looking crappy

[Tassie_Troy1971]

From what ive seen firsthand the coast , Rick Luna , Pogobob,BSman can grow some awesome Oceanic palms all the Lord Howe ,New zealand and New caledonian palm look pristine . They have the advantage of frost free winters and the early morning fog increases humidity .

Further inland Gary Levine , Matty B , El Hogie,Dave Socal and (Jack sayers ) can grow a bunch of heat loving palms . Bismarckia , Dypsis , and many other grow fast and look good with the extra heat . The best advice i can give is grow what is likely to do well in your Socal microclimate .

[Tyrone]

From what ive seen firsthand the coast , Rick Luna , Pogobob,BSman can grow some awesome Oceanic palms all the Lord Howe ,New zealand and New caledonian palm look pristine . They have the advantage of frost free winters and the early morning fog increases humidity .

Further inland Gary Levine , Matty B , El Hogie,Dave Socal and (Jack sayers ) can grow a bunch of heat loving palms . Bismarckia , Dypsis , and many other grow fast and look good with the extra heat . The best advice i can give is grow what is likely to do well in your Socal microclimate .

Troy, I find it interesting reading about these different So Cal climates. I don't know what Tassie is like in this regard. The west coast of Oz is sort of like So Cal to an extent but not as extreme in it's difference between the coast and inland areas. Here Howeas grow much better near the coast in full sun, whereas they burn in full sun 20km inland near me during a very hot spell. But we don't get that coastal gloominess and cloud that So Cal gets that keeps temps way down in summer. Nor do we have mountains and valleys that run to the coast which would further complicate things. West coast Oz is probably more like Florida with the flat terrain, sand and limestone.

[trioderob]

sure is some nice weather for growin Lord Howe palms these days........

[Jubaea]

I hope it won't be so cool this summer. Although if what is happening now is any hint for what is to come it is not good. Night time lows are still in the mid 40's and it is nearly June.

[enigma99]

Yet another cool summer ugh. I need some heat to get the palms through the winter. This prolonged cold is just so hard on everything. Today was 80F but I think tomorrow is supposed to be 60s! And then a full week of sweltering low-mid 70s.

[PalmGuyWC]

Northern Calif. is definately running cooler than normal, about 10 or 12 degrees cooler in the month of May. Normally our daytime temps would be in the 80's and 90's, but this year only in the low 70's, and nighttime temps in the upper 40's to low 50's. There are no bloom spathes on my Butias, but one of my Jubaeas has 4 bloom spathes emerging and the Butia X Jubaea has some spathes emerging.The weather has been great for humans, but not enough warmth for palm growth.

Dick

[happ]

Northern Calif. is definately running cooler than normal, about 10 or 12 degrees cooler in the month of May. Normally our daytime temps would be in the 80's and 90's, but this year only in the low 70's, and nighttime temps in the upper 40's to low 50's. There are no bloom spathes on my Butias, but one of my Jubaeas has 4 bloom spathes emerging and the Butia X Jubaea has some spathes emerging.The weather has been great for humans, but not enough warmth for palm growth.

Dick

Hi Dick,

I noticed that several weak tornadoes touched down in the Sacramento Valley yesterday; looks like the only damage was to orchards. But getting such violent weather or any weather in late May is extraordinary for California. The jet stream is much further south than normal and contributing to devastating tornadoes in the Midwest and southern U.S.; some of the most deadly tornadoes in history!

It has been cool but not much more than 5-10 degree below normal in southern California.

[Jastin]

For the past 2 years i've been saying "this is the year, it's gonna be a good summer" but it never seems to happen. Maybe this year! I'm lucky to be right outside the San Diego fog monster and get the heat but not so far inland that I have to protect a lot of stuff.

[MattyB]

SD Fog Monster!!! haha

Good description

[Palmy]

That Tornado in Chico was quite something.

La Nina usually means little rain for California but this year was something else. I didn't quite add up all the times it rained in Orinda (5 miles east of Oakland) but it looked like 40+ inches of rain this season. Hard to do it when you are living far away from the weather station. Normally we get around 25-30 inches in Orinda.

Living in Norman has been quite interesting. We have lacked rain winter and most of spring. Finally gotten some good rain within the last month plus some tornados. So far, mom has complained about the temp in Orinda so I guess its pretty cool over there.

[aloetom]

Greetings to all,

Here's a link to the latest piece I have read and it suggests perhaps it will be a warmer summer.

Who knows ?

http://weathercurrents.com/deluz/NewsItemDisplay.do?Id=813

[enigma99]

Tonight is going to be around record lows at 46F. I'm so sick of this garbage. Next year better be above normal for two years of freezing weather

[BS Man about Palms]

Tonight is going to be around record lows at 46F. I'm so sick of this garbage. Next year better be above normal for two years of freezing weather

hhhmmmm 46F somewhere .

Could be trouble somewhere

[happ]

Tonight is going to be around record lows at 46F. I'm so sick of this garbage. Next year better be above normal for two years of freezing weather

Remind us again where you are located. I am up in the Sacramento Valley this weekend where they are forecasting the 3rd coolest Memorial Day in history [low 70's] and the possibility of rainfall\ thunderstorms later in the week.

[Palmy]

Look at this forecast.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 47. West wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Memorial Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. West southwest wind between 9 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southwest wind between 8 and 14 mph.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Southwest wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. West southwest wind between 5 and 13 mph.

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 59.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 59.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 61.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 63.

How absurd! This is may/june and those temps in SF east bay over the hills! Man oh man, no growth in palms except parajubaea and howea.

[enigma99]

Tonight is going to be around record lows at 46F. I'm so sick of this garbage. Next year better be above normal for two years of freezing weather

Remind us again where you are located. I am up in the Sacramento Valley this weekend where they are forecasting the 3rd coolest Memorial Day in history [low 70's] and the possibility of rainfall\ thunderstorms later in the week.

Yes i live near Sacramento (a bit more inland) and we've been setting records in the 40s. Average for this time of the year is upper 80s but it's been nowhere near that. It's so depressing. I'm ready for the high pressure to build and get the temps up! My palms, plumerias and everything else have been growing at a snail pace for weeks now. Even parts of Canada are in the 80s already.. and somehow we're stuck with freezing weather.

[enigma99]

Look at this forecast.

How absurd! This is may/june and those temps in SF east bay over the hills! Man oh man, no growth in palms except parajubaea and howea.

Yeah, that's pretty bad. The ocean is COLDDDD this year. Fear the onshore breeze for sure... At least I'm inland more than you so I'm able to warm to the low 70s. But you know, I think part of the problem is the onshore wind is really strong this year.

[Palmy]

THUNDERSTORMS

ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE LOW (DOWN TO

-9C AT 700 MB) MOVES OVERHEAD. LIFTED VALUES WILL FALL DOWN TO -1.5

WHILE SNOW LEVELS DROP DOWN TO 4000 FEET IN ANY STRONG CELLS. SMALL

HAIL IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS.

Really???

MINOR RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW

MOVES JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BRINGS MORE RAIN STARTING ON

FRIDAY.

Winter isn't giving up without a fight it seems. Bizarre.

[enigma99]

THUNDERSTORMS

ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE LOW (DOWN TO

-9C AT 700 MB) MOVES OVERHEAD. LIFTED VALUES WILL FALL DOWN TO -1.5

WHILE SNOW LEVELS DROP DOWN TO 4000 FEET IN ANY STRONG CELLS. SMALL

HAIL IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS.

Really???

MINOR RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT

THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW

MOVES JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND BRINGS MORE RAIN STARTING ON

FRIDAY.

Winter isn't giving up without a fight it seems. Bizarre.

Sigh... everything has been updated for another 20 degree below normal week-- Well into mid june

[enigma99]

Just wanted to send you some warmth.. from the Northeast LOL. Since the east and west US are typically opposites (due to jet stream) all of our cold weather is allowing them to warm

[Palmy]

BY FRIDAY ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM

WILL BE JUST OFF OUR COAST. THIS LOW IS FROM A SYSTEM NEAR THE

ALEUTIANS THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

THEN DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR WATERS. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS

OUR AREA SOME TIME ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT

INTO PART OF SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY

STATIONARY WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY OR SIMPLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH IT

IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW (BOTH SHOW A SMALL SPREAD) PLUS 1" OF PW

WITH UP TO 45 KT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A

SUBSTANTIAL VERY LATE-SEASON RAIN EVENT. HPC SHOWS RAINFALL TOTALS

THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF UP TO 1.5" FOR THE NORTH BAY

MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO AN INCH AROUND SF BAY...AND 1/2" OR LESS FOR

POINTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THESE VALUES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE

ADJUSTED AS THE EVENT NEARS AND COASTAL RANGES FOR MONTEREY AND

SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES COULD END UP GETTING A FAIR AMOUNT MORE THAN

THESE VALUES.

LOOKED BACK AT OUR PRECIP RECORDS FOR TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR

THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE AND DATES IN 1964 AND 1967 BOTH JUMP OUT.

THIS SETUP HAS SIMILARITIES WITH BOTH OF THOSE AND EVEN HIGHER PW

VALUES. ONE OF THEM HAD 500 MB HEIGHTS OF 542 AND ANOTHER HAD THEM

DOWN TO 536 DM. IN THIS SITUATION THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND

541.

AFTER THE STORM AT THE END OF THE WEEK...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS

FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH

PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OVER THE PACIFIC. STILL NO SIGN OF A BIG WARM-

UP.

A big June rain event for California. That is very interesting. I wonder how much, if any LA may get.

[trioderob]

anyone on the coast in central cali

"forget-about-it"

your only going to have half a growing season this year

[trioderob]

I checked out the NOAA LA NINA page.

looks like there is very cold water just off the california coast.

the rest of the pacific look normal to above normal now.

maybe of the cold water mixes out in a few weeks there will be warm temps in July

you can see the map on this site (page 7 has the map)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[enigma99]

Sucks to be on the coast, good thing i'm inland:)

[BS Man about Palms]

Sucks to be on the coast, good thing i'm inland:)

Not too bad for my new cal stuff though..

[trioderob]

sure is cold in New Caledonia

[nachocarl]

46F for the last three morning here in the COLD part of Vista. Boy I hope the jet moves north soon.

[PalmGuyWC]

Record rain fall was recorded in Oakland and San Francisco yesterday for this time of the year. A well defined low pressure out over the ocean is stalled off the San Francisco Bay area and pumping moist, warm air (realatively) into N. Calif. from the South. Yesterday there were frequent build ups drifting over my place dropping heavy rain, and it rained off and on all day. More rain is forecasted for today and tomorrow and thunder storms might be expected. Warmer weather is expected later in the week. (finally)

Dick