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Floridians beware

SubTropicRay

By SubTropicRay
in WEATHER / CLIMATE

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SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
Posted

I just copied what was important

"8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2007:  THE COLD PATTERN FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEEK 2. IF THE FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN VERIFIES... THEN RECORD SETTING COLD IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA."

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

gsn Veteran

gsn

Posted
Posted

Ray,

Just curious ,whose forecast? NWS

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

Looks like it might be our turn next......

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

STEVE IN SO CAL Mentor

STEVE IN SO CAL

Posted
Posted

Don't take any chances. I'd say the number one regret of most people in Calif is not taking it serious enough. COVER YOUR PLANTS. It's better to waste some time and effort for naught, than to be beating yourself up for slacking...trust me !!

If global warming means I can grow Cocos Nucifera, then bring it on....

SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Scott,

Yes, the Climate Prediction Center is a division of the NWS.  "Record Setting" lows for late January imply lows in the lower 20's for all of central Florida.   The good thing is what usually happens is NOT what they predict this far in advance.  For reference, see the last hurricane season.  If they were discussing something in the next 5 days, it would be a different story.  In other words, I wouldn't panic yet.

Ray

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
  • Author
Posted
610temp.new.gif

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

tropical1 Collaborator

tropical1

Posted
Posted

one thing in our favor is the warm water temps in the Gulf of Mexico. I just checked data from an offshore buoy and it is currently at 72 F. Atlantic temps are also unseasonably warm. However, there is some brutally cold air in Canada.

NW Hillsborough County, FL (Near Tampa)

10 miles east of the Gulf of Mexico

Border of Zone 9b/10a

Lakefront Microclimate

gsn Veteran

gsn

Posted
Posted

Ray,

Thanks!

As you probably already know, I don't put alot of stock even in short term forecasts little lone 12 days out! ???

But it is something to keep an eye on,we are probably due for some colder weather unfortunately.

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
  • Author
Posted

More info from the CPC

"ONE OF THE 00Z D+8 GFS COMPOSITE ANALOGS LINK TO 19 JAN 1977. THIS

WAS RECORD EXTREME COLD OVER FLORIDA. INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND

FORECAST HT AND TEMP ANOMALY FIELDS WHILE WELL BELOW NORMAL ARE

NOT IN THE RANGE OF THIS RECORD EVENT BUT MEAN COMPOSITE SUGGESTS

A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE 1977 EVENT THE COLDEST OF THE COMPOSITE

SOLUTIONS OVER FL SRN. NEEDS TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY BY

AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN BASICALLY IN

PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THE LONGER TERM MODEL RUN OUTS OF

THE GFS HAVE A SIMILAR EVEN COLDER COLD SURGE ABOUT AROUND 5 DAYS

LATER NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH."

For those unfamiliar with Florida history, it snowed almost statewide in January of 1977.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

epicure3 Grand Master

epicure3

Posted
Posted

(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 19 2007,23:31)

QUOTE
More info from the CPC

"ONE OF THE 00Z D+8 GFS COMPOSITE ANALOGS LINK TO 19 JAN 1977. THIS

WAS RECORD EXTREME COLD OVER FLORIDA. INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS AND

FORECAST HT AND TEMP ANOMALY FIELDS WHILE WELL BELOW NORMAL ARE

NOT IN THE RANGE OF THIS RECORD EVENT BUT MEAN COMPOSITE SUGGESTS

A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE 1977 EVENT THE COLDEST OF THE COMPOSITE

SOLUTIONS OVER FL SRN. NEEDS TO BE WATCHED ESPECIALLY BY

AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN BASICALLY IN

PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE THE LONGER TERM MODEL RUN OUTS OF

THE GFS HAVE A SIMILAR EVEN COLDER COLD SURGE ABOUT AROUND 5 DAYS

LATER NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH."

For those unfamiliar with Florida history, it snowed almost statewide in January of 1977.

If any of you subscribe to the Pro site of Accuweather.com, you will notice that Joe Bastardi (yes, I, know, the doomsdayer) has also been describing the upcoming end of January and the beginning of Feb with analogies to, not only 1977, but also 1958. I wouldn't strees since these forecasts can turn on a dime and it will probably be 80F. Nonetheless, something to watch.

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

Alicehunter2000 Grand Master

Alicehunter2000

Posted
Posted

:(  EGAD!  :(

I was starting to get used to this 9a thing. For the last two years its been 10a up here in the "cold" north with temps barely seeing freezing for a couple of nights. Come-on March!

David Simms zone 9a on Highway 30a

200 steps from the Gulf in NW Florida

30 ft. elevation and sandy soil

SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Is the threat gone?  The flip flopping makes me dizzy.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

epicure3 Grand Master

epicure3

Posted
Posted

(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 22 2007,16:16)

QUOTE
Is the threat gone?  The flip flopping makes me dizzy.

Looks like FLA should be ok. :)

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

gsn Veteran

gsn

Posted
Posted

(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 22 2007,16:16)

QUOTE
Is the threat gone?  The flip flopping makes me dizzy.

How many professions can you change your mind 15 times in 15 days ,and still keep your JOB!  ???  

Only other one I can think of is FORTUNE TELLER! :laugh:

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

Alan_Tampa Mentor

Alan_Tampa

Posted
Posted

government

Alan

Tampa, Florida

Zone - 10a

SunnyFl Mentor

SunnyFl

Posted
Posted

(Ray @ Tampa,Jan. 22 2007,16:16)

QUOTE
Is the threat gone?  The flip flopping makes me dizzy.

According to the NWS, the big-bad appears to be gone.  My area is forecast to dip to a low of 47 in the coming days - along with some stiff wind; other areas of Pinellas could see 41 (according to the zone forecast).  Discussion didn't mention anything untoward.

Let's cross our fingers and hope the forecast doesn't deteriorate - am loving seeing all the new spears on the raveneas, dypsis, and spindle.  Grow dear ones, grow!

(gsn @ Jan. 22 2007,16:52)

QUOTE
How many professions can you change your mind 15 times in 15 days ,and still keep your JOB!

Where I work, they do!!  :angry: :angry:  :angry:

St. Pete

Zone - a wacked-out place between 9b & 10

Elevation = 44' - not that it does any good

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

(epicure3 @ Jan. 22 2007,16:17)

QUOTE

(Ray @ Tampa,Jan. 22 2007,16:16)

QUOTE
Is the threat gone?  The flip flopping makes me dizzy.

Looks like FLA should be ok. :)

Yes....so far so good.  Even the "north Pinellas county tundra" as of now is only forecast by NWS to drop to 46F on the coldest night (Thursday).

Thyeve still got some more time to drop things, but it doesnt look like the zone-definer that was discussed late last week.

A few more weeks and winter will be hard pressed to hit us hard as we are already on the statistical upswing.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

SubTropicRay Grand Master

SubTropicRay

Posted
  • Author
Posted

It will be OK, this year.  More meds...more meds.

Tampa, Interbay Peninsula, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10A

Bokeelia, Pine Island, Florida, USA

subtropical USDA Zone 10B

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

(Ray, Tampa @ Jan. 23 2007,07:17)

QUOTE
It will be OK, this year.  More meds...more meds.

Ray-

I am going to jinx us right now.

Zone 11 this year!

LOL.

Ill be happy to stay 10a this winter (and any winter obviously), but so far it has been 11a practically everywhere around Tampa Bay.....even the north Pinellas tundra.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

tikitiki Mentor

tikitiki

Posted
Posted

This is to much to keep up with. Just let me know the night before so I can break out the heaters and blankets.

With a tin cup for a chalice

Fill it up with good red wine,

And I'm-a chewin' on a honeysuckle vine.

gsn Veteran

gsn

Posted
Posted

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 23 2007,09:54)

QUOTE
I am going to jinx us right now.

Zone 11 this year!

Larry you and HAPP!

I understand Happ he beleives in those meteo guys, "give me meteorology or give me death!"

But you Larry,did you find some super duper medication,one I haven't seen advertised 10,000 times on TV? Or did you recently come across an old copy of Norman Vincent Peales' book, "The Power of Positive Thinking" :;):

I hope that DOGHOUSE is a nice big one, if ya jinxed us! :laugh:

On a serious note, I am sure  most everyone thought we were out of the woods  last year until 2/13/2006! :;):

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

ZoneTenNut Proficient

ZoneTenNut

Posted
Posted

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 23 2007,09:54)

QUOTE
Zone 11 this year!

LOL.

Ill be happy to stay 10a this winter (and any winter obviously), but so far it has been 11a practically everywhere around Tampa Bay.....even the north Pinellas tundra.

I'm bummed. We won't qualify for a zone 11 this year because of that one brief cold snap back in Nov.  :(

Still, can't feel too bad, as this winter has been outstandingly warm and my palms have really thrived.

Royal Palm Beach, FL.

USDA Zone 10A/10B Subtropical

26.7 degrees N. latitude

10 miles West of West Palm Beach and the ocean

Avg. yearly rainfall 58 inches

:cool:

ruskinPalms Grand Master

ruskinPalms

Posted
Posted

Well, I managed to get to 39.7F on night in december soooo no zone 11 for me anyway. But I could get used to this 10B stuff  :;):

Parrish, FL

Zone 9B

Trópico Grand Master

Trópico

Posted
Posted

The cold fronts here are laughable. They don't have what it takes to bring the temps below 40sF.  :)  Last week of January and still 11A. Only one more month, but all this could change.

Frank

 

Zone 9b pine flatlands

humid/hot summers; dry/cool winters

with yearly freezes

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

(ruskinPalms @ Jan. 23 2007,17:36)

QUOTE
Well, I managed to get to 39.7F on night in december soooo no zone 11 for me anyway. But I could get used to this 10B stuff  :;):

Bill-

Not that the zone map game makes much difference, but I believe the USDA would round that up to 40F :D

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

gsn Veteran

gsn

Posted
Posted

(Trópico @ Jan. 24 2007,08:40)

QUOTE
The cold fronts here are laughable. They don't have what it takes to bring the temps below 40sF.  :)  

Not that I am superstitious or anything BUT!

It's not nice to tempt MOTHER NATURE!

She  might just slap us in the face! :;):

Scott

Titusville, FL

1/2 mile from the Indian River

USDA Zone COLD

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

(gsn @ Jan. 24 2007,12:32)

QUOTE
It's not nice to tempt MOTHER NATURE!

She  might just slap us in the face! :;):

And leave a bad nasty mark  ???

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 22 2007,22:23)

QUOTE
Yes....so far so good.  Even the "north Pinellas county tundra" as of now is only forecast by NWS to drop to 46F on the coldest night (Thursday).

Thyeve still got some more time to drop things, but it doesnt look like the zone-definer that was discussed late last week.

Right on cue....the forecast is now down from 46F to 40F for Thursday night for my little corner of Pinellas.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

ZoneTenNut Proficient

ZoneTenNut

Posted
Posted

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 24 2007,13:39)

QUOTE

(spockvr6 @ Jan. 22 2007,22:23)

QUOTE
Yes....so far so good.  Even the "north Pinellas county tundra" as of now is only forecast by NWS to drop to 46F on the coldest night (Thursday).

Thyeve still got some more time to drop things, but it doesnt look like the zone-definer that was discussed late last week.

Right on cue....the forecast is now down from 46F to 40F for Thursday night for my little corner of Pinellas.

They've got me down to 51F to 46F for Thursday night, but we seemed to have been way above the forecast low this year, on each cold front prediction, so may not get that cool at all. We'll see.

Roger

Royal Palm Beach, FL.

USDA Zone 10A/10B Subtropical

26.7 degrees N. latitude

10 miles West of West Palm Beach and the ocean

Avg. yearly rainfall 58 inches

:cool:

ZoneTenNut Proficient

ZoneTenNut

Posted
Posted

Something wicked this way comes.  :(

6:10AM and still warm here this morning, with 64.8F. But I can see on the maps, the colder air barreling down the peninsula. Doesn't look to be a major event, but certainly going to be cooler than it has been for virtually this entire winter. Scattered rain here and there.

Royal Palm Beach, FL.

USDA Zone 10A/10B Subtropical

26.7 degrees N. latitude

10 miles West of West Palm Beach and the ocean

Avg. yearly rainfall 58 inches

:cool:

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

(ZoneTenNut @ Jan. 25 2007,06:09)

QUOTE
Something wicked this way comes.  :(

6:10AM and still warm here this morning, with 64.8F. But I can see on the maps, the colder air barreling down the peninsula. Doesn't look to be a major event, but certainly going to be cooler than it has been for virtually this entire winter. Scattered rain here and there.

This AM was about 4-5 F cooler than forecast.  But, they got the rain part right as its been raining/spitting pretty much all night and through this AM.

48F and drizzly at my house this AM.

Hopefully, they will not miss tonight's forecast by 4-5F......that would be a bit nasty.  It looks like tomorrow AM will may be a foray into the 30's as forecasts range from 39 to 44F.  

Heres the big blob rolling in.

1-25-07-745AM.jpg

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

Rats.  Looks like we might have to battle winter for a bit this year after all.

t_threats.gif

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

redant Grand Master

redant

Posted
Posted

Monday seems interesting. I have low predictions from 56f to 42f as of this morning.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

redant Grand Master

redant

Posted
Posted

"Rats.  Looks like we might have to battle winter for a bit this year after all."

I 100% blame you for that Larry.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

(redant @ Jan. 25 2007,09:56)

QUOTE
"Rats.  Looks like we might have to battle winter for a bit this year after all."

I 100% blame you for that Larry.

Yeah....my dumb @ss "I know I am going to jinx us, but Ill say this anyway BS"......LOL.

It seems the universe does listen afterall ???

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

spockvr6 Grand Master

spockvr6

Posted
Posted

(redant @ Jan. 25 2007,09:55)

QUOTE
Monday seems interesting. I have low predictions from 56f to 42f as of this morning.

Dont you love it when they cant make up their minds?

There is still disagreement between the forecasts for tonight's low temperature up here.  The range is now between 37 (weatherunderground.com) and 44F (weather.com).  NWS says 39F and I usually hedge my bets with what they say.

Larry 

Palm Harbor, FL 10a / Ft Myers, FL 10b

epicure3 Grand Master

epicure3

Posted
Posted

Boy, you Floridians have a warped perspective on what winter really is. 42 for a low? Better turn down the AC a notch. After this winter, I expect to see a lot of pics of inground cyrtostachys and phoenicoriums from Jax to Tampa.

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

redant Grand Master

redant

Posted
Posted

Hey we're trying to grow coconuts over here. They get a little temperamental when temps go below 35.

Jupiter FL

in the Zone formally known as 10A

epicure3 Grand Master

epicure3

Posted
Posted

(redant @ Jan. 25 2007,10:28)

QUOTE
Hey we're trying to grow coconuts over here. They get a little temperamental when temps go below 35.

Oh......jeeez....

Coastal San Diego, California

Z10b

Dry summer subtropical/Mediterranean

warm summer/mild winter

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