Temperature outlook for May

[Funkthulhu]

The Climate Prediction center (CPC) has issued their temperature outlook (Forecast) for May 2012.

There are four categories, A (Above), B (Below), N (Near Normal) and EC (Equal Chances). Historically, 33.3% of the time the temperatures will be A, B, or N. Therefore, the numbers in the red area for example are all 33 or higher. The darkest red area is enclosed by a 50 or higher line meaning the probability of it being warmer than normal is 50% or 17% higher than random chance (33%). The area of EC means there is no current predictability and all three categories are equally likely (A, B, N). Based upon this map, the outlook for Nebraska is a highest likelihood of continued warmer than normal conditions in May.

Two important points, (1) this does not mean every day would be above normal, i.e. it is an outlook for the monthly average, and, (2) this is not a high probability forecast, i.e. the odds favor warmer than normal but only slightly meaning it could also be N (Near Normal) or B (Below Normal) for the month.

If May 2012 averages above normal in temperatures, it will be the 8th month in a row for average monthly temperatures to be above normal for eastern Nebraska.

Posted by Ken Dewey at 9:44 AM

SNR-Climate Corner

[empireo22]

its 90 here in north carolina. about 10 degrees above normal

[Funkthulhu]

Yeah, we'll be above 80 here pretty much all week.

My Container Cucumbers are already going nuts!

And if this all keeps up I will rapidly run out of anything resembling spare room for all the palms I'll be potting this summer...

[Funkthulhu]

The attached map shows the observed temperature departures form normal for the lower 48 U.S. States. For much of the Great Plains and Midwest this has been the warmest January 1-April 30 time period on record. Many locations had temperatures departures exceeding +10 degrees F. The only area averaging below normal was the Pacific Northwest. The map below is a close up view of the High Plains region showing in more detail the magnitude of temperature departures for this January 1 through April 30, 2012 time period. It has truely been an historic warm start to the year with temrpature records that extend well back into the 1800's.

Posted by Ken Dewey at 6:10 AM

(Dr. Dewey is still awesome)

[Funkthulhu]

January 1 - April 30, 2012 Warmest on Record for Lincoln, NE

The time period of January 1 through April 30, 2012 was the warmest on record for Lincoln Nebraska with data extending back 126 years to 1887.

The above graph shows the daily departures from normal for Lincoln's temperatures. The magnitude of the departure is illustrated by the length of each vertical bar. Blue indicates below normal and red above normal.

The daily normals change throughout the time period, so the graph shows the daily departures relative to what the normal is for that day of the year For example, on January 30, 2012 the high was 70F, and the low was 34F for a daily average of 52F which was 27 degrees ABOVE the normal daily average of 25F for that day of the year. On February 11, 2012 the high was 17F and the low was -3F for a daily average of only 7F, which was 21 degrees BELOW the daily normal for that date of 28F. April 2, 2012 had a high of 90F and a low of 57F with a daily average of 74F which was 27 degrees ABOVE the normal of 47F for that day of the year. And yes, some days were exactly normal. For example, the daily average temperature on April 14 was 51F with a departure of 0 degrees from the normal of 51 F for that date. The average temperature on February 19 was 30F with a 0 degree departure from the normal of 30F for that date.

There were totals of 85 days with daily average temperatures ABOVE normal, 29 days with daily average temperatures BELOW normal and 7 days with daily average temperatures exactly normal during January 1 through April 30, 2012.

Here is a listing of the top ten warmest January 1-April 30 time periods for 1887 through 2012.

Lincoln, NE, 1887-2012

Warmest Average Temperature degrees F

Rank Value Ending Date

1 43.1 4/30/2012

2 42.6 4/30/1946

3 42.2 4/30/1921

4 41.9 4/30/1992

5 40.9 4/30/1987

6 40.5 4/30/2006

7 40.4 4/30/1931

8 40.3 4/30/1981

9 40.0 4/30/1990

10 39.9 4/30/2000

Posted by Ken Dewey at 7:49 AM

And all of this started after I decided to start growing palms in Nebraska. Coincidence? I think so!

[amazondk]

Here in Great Falls, Montana it was 39 F this morning. At least it did not snow the week I was here. A bit different from my normal latitude.

dk

[Xenon]

its 90 here in north carolina. about 10 degrees above normal

Same here in Houston, Texas...90 degree highs with lows above 70 all week. Nearby ocean temperatures are already hitting 80...

[Palm crazy]

In the PNW (western washington) temps have been mostly 5F-17F above normal - for the last 6 weeks. :D

Just last week and this week eastern washington has been in the low-mid 90's, kinda normal for the desert part of the state.

Edited May 15, 2012 by Palm crazy

[Funkthulhu]

The official word from the UNL department of agronomy is that all the plant growth, flowering, and seeding is about 4 weeks ahead of schedule.

Looks to be a hot summer, too!

(First 15 days of May are 1.4 F higher than the highest average on the books, and this week is all mid to high 80's)

[Funkthulhu]

A record high of 94 F was observed yesterday in Lincoln, NE. This was the 9th day this year with highs 90 F or higher in Lincoln, NE. This ties 1934 for the most number of 90 degree days by May 23 (with 126 years of data).

A significant cool-down is expected today (Thursday May 24) and tomorrow (Friday, May 25), then two more hot days on Saturday (mid 90's) and Sunday (near 90F) then cooler again to end the month of May 2012. Lincoln residents were not so lucky in May 1934. High temperaturess for the last days of the month exceeded 90 F and 100 F

Lincoln, NE, High Temperatures, May 1934

May 28, 1934: 93 F

May 29, 1934: 102 F

May 30, 1934: 104 F

May 31, 1934: 103 F

Mid summer heat wave temperatures spread across the Great Plains yesterday, May 23, 2012. The state-wide high temperatures for May 23, 2012 were: 107 F, Dryden, TX; 103 F, Guymon, OK; 102 F, Roswell, NM; 100 F, Dodge City, KS; 96 F, Hebron, NE; and, 94 F, Cherokee, IA.

The attached map shows yesterday's (May 23, 2012) high temperatures. Note the 111 F south of the TX/Mexico border.

Posted by Ken Dewey at 7:02 AM

(at least my palms are happy!)