Changes in the jet stream

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

This was featured on NPR today, blocking patterns of the jet stream is becoming the norm.

So what's going on in California and Florida could become the new normal.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way

[Dakotafl]

Temp wise, it hasn't been that bad here this year, certainly no record breakers, i just think that every few years we need something more to worry about, then people start inventing problems.

Edited February 17, 2014 by Dakotafl

[Eric in Orlando]

If this is the new norm for winters in central FL then nothing wrong with that. Lots of warm temperatures and more rain than normal.

[Zeeth]

If this is the new norm for winters in central FL then nothing wrong with that. Lots of warm temperatures and more rain than normal.

I don't know if I agree. The ultimate lows haven't been bad at all, but it seems like it's been really chilly for a long time.

[_Keith]

If this is the new norm for winters in central FL then nothing wrong with that. Lots of warm temperatures and more rain than normal.

I don't know if I agree. The ultimate lows haven't been bad at all, but it seems like it's been really chilly for a long time.

That is the kicker. Ultimately the big freeze in 2010 was a bit colder, but far less plant damage was noted. This year, the two big chills separated by a month with the ice storm in between did far worse damage than in 2010. Just one of the reasons, I don't think there will ever be a truly accurate palm hardiness list by temps. Just too many other variables, other than temp.

[Zeeth]

If this is the new norm for winters in central FL then nothing wrong with that. Lots of warm temperatures and more rain than normal.

I don't know if I agree. The ultimate lows haven't been bad at all, but it seems like it's been really chilly for a long time.

That is the kicker. Ultimately the big freeze in 2010 was a bit colder, but far less plant damage was noted. This year, the two big chills separated by a month with the ice storm in between did far worse damage than in 2010. Just one of the reasons, I don't think there will ever be a truly accurate palm hardiness list by temps. Just too many other variables, other than temp.

2010 was a completely different monster from this winter for me. The lowest my garden saw was 34-35 with some frost on the cars for a few days. Nothing really has much damage, so I shouldn't really complain, but it was annoying to have so many days where I couldn't wear a T shirt and shorts.

[Dakotafl]

If this is the new norm for winters in central FL then nothing wrong with that. Lots of warm temperatures and more rain than normal.

I don't know if I agree. The ultimate lows haven't been bad at all, but it seems like it's been really chilly for a long time.

Yes, i would agree, it wasn't the lowest temp that was abnormal, just how long the temps lasted, but i remember we went years without a single frost here, some would say that would be the new norm as well, but it wasn't, so i don't take these climate "Experts" seriously.

Some years we have a frosty morning or two and sometimes we can go years without one, never can tell.

Edited February 18, 2014 by Dakotafl

[palmsOrl]

Temp wise, it hasn't been that bad here this year, certainly no record breakers, i just think that every few years we need something more to worry about, then people start inventing problems.

I certainly don't wish to see climatic consequences of man made climate change. I would, however, honestly be okay if every winter were like this one here (in Central FL), as I like a cool down and a break from the relentless heat. This year, we have had a good dose of cool/chilly weather, but no freeze. It has been great (I'm only speaking of my location, of course). Out of hundreds of unprotected tropical plants of all types and sizes, I haven't lost ONE.

What seems to be becoming more common here as a result of the supposedly changing jet stream are extended chilly periods in the winter months, but without the extreme, record low temps. Maybe I am just observing the urban heat island in my location, but even in North Florida, there has been some "brutal" chill this winter, but most locations bottomed out far above all-time record low territory. Think, 18F in Pensacola this winter vs. all-time record of 5F (correct me if this is in any way inaccurate).

[palmsOrl]

If this is the new norm for winters in central FL then nothing wrong with that. Lots of warm temperatures and more rain than normal.

I don't know if I agree. The ultimate lows haven't been bad at all, but it seems like it's been really chilly for a long time.

That is the kicker. Ultimately the big freeze in 2010 was a bit colder, but far less plant damage was noted. This year, the two big chills separated by a month with the ice storm in between did far worse damage than in 2010. Just one of the reasons, I don't think there will ever be a truly accurate palm hardiness list by temps. Just too many other variables, other than temp.

2010 was a completely different monster from this winter for me. The lowest my garden saw was 34-35 with some frost on the cars for a few days. Nothing really has much damage, so I shouldn't really complain, but it was annoying to have so many days where I couldn't wear a T shirt and shorts.

Sounds like you belong in Miami or the Keys Keith Even there, you will have a few cool days to contend with.

Edited February 18, 2014 by palmsOrl

[Dakotafl]

Temp wise, it hasn't been that bad here this year, certainly no record breakers, i just think that every few years we need something more to worry about, then people start inventing problems.

I certainly don't wish to see climatic consequences of man made climate change. I would, however, honestly be okay if every winter were like this one here (in Central FL), as I like a cool down and a break from the relentless heat. This year, we have had a good dose of cool/chilly weather, but no freeze. It has been great (I'm only speaking of my location, of course). Out of hundreds of unprotected tropical plants of all types and sizes, I haven't lost ONE.

What seems to be becoming more common here as a result of the supposedly changing jet stream are extended chilly periods in the winter months, but without the extreme, record low temps. Maybe I am just observing the urban heat island in my location, but even in North Florida, there has been some "brutal" chill this winter, but most locations bottomed out far above all-time record low territory. Think, 18F in Pensacola this winter vs. all-time record of 5F (correct me if this is in any way inaccurate).

I just wouldn't really think myself that its the new norm, i mean November and December were mostly in the low 80s with just a few quick cool downs, a few years isn't going to make me think something is up, of course the climate is going to change regardless of human interference or not, nothing is static, but i certainly don't want it to get colder...

[palmsOrl]

You're right Dakota! November and December were quite warm. Even all of the seeming chill we had in January only resulted in temps just very slightly below normal (1-2F). I'm guessing February will be similar, unless we spend the remainder of the month in the 80s.

[Dakotafl]

You're right Dakota! November and December were quite warm. Even all of the seeming chill we had in January only resulted in temps just very slightly below normal (1-2F). I'm guessing February will be similar, unless we spend the remainder of the month in the 80s.

It looks like we will have a good stretch of 80s coming up and the next cold front said a low of 40F yesterday for the next one, now it says 48F or so, that had me worried that they could have forecast it that low more than a week in advance, in that situation it either goes up or down and i hate when it goes down.

Despite the prolonged cool weather we had, the Cocos in the Melbourne area look as good as ever.

Edited February 18, 2014 by Dakotafl

[Dakotafl]

Last Thursday was the first time in Feb that we fell below 50F in Melbourne, weird when you consider that not two nights later it fell to 39F with no frost of course.

[Silas_Sancona]

Have to agree with palms Orl,

Barring the worst of any winters ahead, which is un-escapable, most years are generally mild, if not warm. while I like it warm, year-round, the less humid breaks, cool-ish evenings, and scattered rainfall every so many days is welcomed. Most days have been mild or, like today, 80, with a light breeze and crystal clear. December here was 5+ above, Jan.. a degree or so lower than average, Feb should fall right around average so not too bad. Plants definitely don't mind...as long as the real cold stays away.

I do agree that it is everyone's responsibility to make the best choices possible to better the environment around them. On the other hand.. until I see 4' of snow on the ground, here.. the sky isn't falling. If only I could live long enough to see the west coast of the state extend out another 100 miles again, or be able to walk under the Golden Gate, that would be awesome.

As far as California is concerned, While the drought is bad.. the obsession with the perfect lawn, and plant material like Bradford Pears, Birch, Paeonies and other "English Garden" stuff needs to end.. same with washing down the driveway/sidewalks..

With all the hype over what has/is causing the wild winter here and across the pond in England.. and the nasty heat in Australia and Brazil, the truth is only time will tell what is part of the always-will-change climate cycles and what part we play. Computer models can help us understand variables and possibilities, but will never tell the whole story. The Jet stream will shift again tomorrow and I bet next year, things will be different. Just my 2 pennies.

-Nathan-

[Dakotafl]

Have to agree with palms Orl,

Barring the worst of any winters ahead, which is un-escapable, most years are generally mild, if not warm. while I like it warm, year-round, the less humid breaks, cool-ish evenings, and scattered rainfall every so many days is welcomed. Most days have been mild or, like today, 80, with a light breeze and crystal clear. December here was 5+ above, Jan.. a degree or so lower than average, Feb should fall right around average so not too bad. Plants definitely don't mind...as long as the real cold stays away.

I do agree that it is everyone's responsibility to make the best choices possible to better the environment around them. On the other hand.. until I see 4' of snow on the ground, here.. the sky isn't falling. If only I could live long enough to see the west coast of the state extend out another 100 miles again, or be able to walk under the Golden Gate, that would be awesome.

As far as California is concerned, While the drought is bad.. the obsession with the perfect lawn, and plant material like Bradford Pears, Birch, Paeonies and other "English Garden" stuff needs to end.. same with washing down the driveway/sidewalks..

With all the hype over what has/is causing the wild winter here and across the pond in England.. and the nasty heat in Australia and Brazil, the truth is only time will tell what is part of the always-will-change climate cycles and what part we play. Computer models can help us understand variables and possibilities, but will never tell the whole story. The Jet stream will shift again tomorrow and I bet next year, things will be different. Just my 2 pennies.

-Nathan-

Well Said, the obsession with Northern Styled gardens with northern trees is a problem here, though more in the sense that you just cannot grow 90% of what you can up north down here instead of water needs, people come down here and for some reason expect to grow a Japanese Maple....

[Silas_Sancona]

Lol, even back in San Jose, these maples never looked as nice as they did further north.

-Nathan-

[_Keith]

Have to agree with palms Orl,

Barring the worst of any winters ahead, which is un-escapable, most years are generally mild, if not warm. while I like it warm, year-round, the less humid breaks, cool-ish evenings, and scattered rainfall every so many days is welcomed. Most days have been mild or, like today, 80, with a light breeze and crystal clear. December here was 5+ above, Jan.. a degree or so lower than average, Feb should fall right around average so not too bad. Plants definitely don't mind...as long as the real cold stays away.

I do agree that it is everyone's responsibility to make the best choices possible to better the environment around them. On the other hand.. until I see 4' of snow on the ground, here.. the sky isn't falling. If only I could live long enough to see the west coast of the state extend out another 100 miles again, or be able to walk under the Golden Gate, that would be awesome.

As far as California is concerned, While the drought is bad.. the obsession with the perfect lawn, and plant material like Bradford Pears, Birch, Paeonies and other "English Garden" stuff needs to end.. same with washing down the driveway/sidewalks..

With all the hype over what has/is causing the wild winter here and across the pond in England.. and the nasty heat in Australia and Brazil, the truth is only time will tell what is part of the always-will-change climate cycles and what part we play. Computer models can help us understand variables and possibilities, but will never tell the whole story. The Jet stream will shift again tomorrow and I bet next year, things will be different. Just my 2 pennies.

-Nathan-

Well Said, the obsession with Northern Styled gardens with northern trees is a problem here, though more in the sense that you just cannot grow 90% of what you can up north down here instead of water needs, people come down here and for some reason expect to grow a Japanese Maple....

In many cases, they come there for the warmth, but want to bring some of the comfort of feeling more at home. What better way than trees. Kind of like zone pushing palm gardeners wanting to bring home some of the tropical feeling from that vacation they so want to remember. Seems perfectly natural to me.

[amazondk]

What I see on the weather normally does not refer to the southern hemisphere jet streams. At least around here on the local weather they never bring it up. And, for the most part would only mildly impact my weather here anyway. In spite of Antarctica being a very cold place the narrow width of South America works to keep the cold to a minimum. That is in contrast to the northern hemisphere continents.

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

What I see on the weather normally does not refer to the southern hemisphere jet streams. At least around here on the local weather they never bring it up. And, for the most part would only mildly impact my weather here anyway. In spite of Antarctica being a very cold place the narrow width of South America works to keep the cold to a minimum. That is in contrast to the northern hemisphere continents.

Not sure why you're even worried about weather, the amazon basin is tropical, it's not going to be affected much by either an ice age or any shifts in the jet stream. As you're correctly pointing out, the jet stream affects Northern and Southern latitudes only. The subtropical jet stream is much higher (10,000 to 16,000 meter elevation) in the atmosphere and much weaker and has far less implications in surface weather conditions than the polar jet stream. Best place to read up on it is Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream.

[amazondk]

Thanks Axel. You are right it is not worth thinking much about from where I am. What does impact our weather a lot is the Intertropical Convergence zone. This is the generator of the rainy and dry season as the ITZ moves north to south. You can see by this map the annual variation. We are now in the rainy season which is December through May. That is pretty much where the ITZ is today. It pumps precipitation across the area south of the equator. I used to drive across the equator a lot going to Roraima state. You could see the seasons change as you neared the equator from dry to wet.

You can clearly see it in this picture.

[_Keith]

Some people just like to think through problems and workout the synapses. Kind of fun really.