El Niño

[bgl]

There was so much talk about El Niño a couple of months ago. but I havn't heard anything lately. Which is fine with me, because El Niño means very dry conditions for Hawaii.

I stopped paying attention to weather forecasts about 5-6 years ago when I realized that despite all the technology and weather satellites that exist today I'm better off just looking out the window, so I have to admit I wasn't really paying much attention. But I'm just curious - did they cancel this El Niño or what happened? Up to this morning we've had 25.45 inches/650 mm of rain so far in 2007. That's above average! By comparison, on the same day in Feb 2006 we were up to 18.03 inches (and 2006 was close to an average year for us, rainfall wise).

[gsn]

BGL,

Did they cancel El Nino?? I really enjoyed that SHOW,one of my favorites! :laugh:

Actually I beleive HAPP just misplaced him! ::

By the way your forecasting method, is the only one with any degree of accuracy!

[John Case]

(bgl @ Feb. 24 2007,15:23)

QUOTE

There was so much talk about El Niño a couple of months ago. but I havn't heard anything lately. Which is fine with me, because El Niño means very dry conditions for Hawaii.

I stopped paying attention to weather forecasts about 5-6 years ago when I realized that despite all the technology and weather satellites that exist today I'm better off just looking out the window, so I have to admit I wasn't really paying much attention. But I'm just curious - did they cancel this El Niño or what happened? Up to this morning we've had 25.45 inches/650 mm of rain so far in 2007. That's above average! By comparison, on the same day in Feb 2006 we were up to 18.03 inches (and 2006 was close to an average year for us, rainfall wise).

Once the NY freeze began, the reporting on global warming also stopped...or was it the other way around?...obviously, they cancelled the El Nino as well....

I have underestimated the power of the press....

[Tyrone]

The official word is that the El Nino event has just finished this month. They estimate more neutral conditions for the coming months. Whether it will swing to La Nina by Dec who knows.

regards

Tyrone

[happ]

(Tyrone @ Feb. 24 2007,22:51)

QUOTE

The official word is that the El Nino event has just finished this month. They estimate more neutral conditions for the coming months. Whether it will swing to La Nina by Dec who knows.

regards

Tyrone

Right on Aussie bro  

Those who foolishly give up on the NWS Climate Prediction Center are playing with FIRE    Hawaiians essentially have no worries in constant warmth.

Scott can't afford to go it alone [other than self- interpretation of public access weather models/satellites & good luck.    Nothing even close to freezing in So. Florida this winter  :cool:

California was clobbered hard in Jan & Texas had an unsually long cold spell.

El Nino is officially over :

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Summary: The 2006/07 El Niño has ended

The 2006/07 El Niño has ended. All the main ENSO indicators show that neutral conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin. Along the equator, sea-surface temperatures are cooling rapidly and have been below their El Niño thresholds for about a month now. The Trade Winds have mostly been close to or somewhat stronger than normal since December, the SOI has been neutral for three of the past four months and central-western Pacific cloudiness is close to average. Computer models indicate further cooling in the Pacific, with a La Niña not out of the question (see third paragraph).

What does this mean for Australia? Firstly, while the end of the El Niño would normally be associated with a return to more normal rainfall patterns, it should not be seen as a precursor to drought-breaking rains. This particularly applies to water supplies in parts of eastern and southern Australia, which in some instances require several years of healthy rainfalls to recover to a satisfactory level. Nonetheless, we can be cautiously optimistic that there will be a general easing of dry conditions in drought-affected areas over the next one to two seasons.

A La Niña in 2007?

The chance of a La Niña developing in 2007 is thought to be higher than the long-term average (which is about one in five or 20%) because (a) they have a tendency to follow an El Niño; ( the El Niño has decayed somewhat earlier than normal thereby giving time for a La Niña to begin developing during the critical March to June period; and © a large pool of cold sub-surface water has developed in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña events are generally associated with wetter than normal conditions across much of the eastern half of the country from about autumn.

 

[bgl]

Happ,

Thanks for the information. I guess the bottom line is that it ended before it really began, because we certainly never saw any signs of it here!!

Bo-Göran

[Exotic Life]

I don't know the effect from El Nino here, but what i really know is that we are since May 2005 are the tempeture's above normale average and we broke record after record. But if this is ended ... then this was no effect from El nino i think ? because the mild weather is contined ... The expect also a milder spring then normal after the mildest winter ever ...

Robbin

[Tyrone]

(Exotic Life @ Feb. 25 2007,04:32)

QUOTE

I don't know the effect from El Nino here, but what i really know is that we are since May 2005 are the tempeture's above normale average and we broke record after record. But if this is ended ... then this was no effect from El nino i think ? because the mild weather is contined ... The expect also a milder spring then normal after the mildest winter ever ...

Robbin

Me thinks that's to do with global warming more than an El Nino event. One is natural the other is not.

regards

Tyrone

[amazondk]

I saw on the news here that Evo Morales, President of Bolivia, is blaming the developed countries for the flooding caused by supposed El Nino events in past few months.  He contends that lack of action on climate change by the USA and other countries is impacting poor countries like Bolivia to a greater extent.  

dk

[palmblues]

had to laugh as the Bush admin has done a complete flipflop (a favorite right wing press term here) on gw here in Amerika  ... seems they totally 'embraced' the recent major report on man made global warming (as per top officials) but when asked in the next sentence if they would curb emissions they started saying 'well ... ahhh ... well ... ahhh ... we can't jump to conclusions ... ahhh"   lol ... ship of fools ....

[SunnyFl]

(palmblues @ Feb. 25 2007,08:43)

QUOTE

had to laugh as the Bush admin has done a complete flipflop (a favorite right wing press term here) on gw here in Amerika  ... seems they totally 'embraced' the recent major report on man made global warming (as per top officials) but when asked in the next sentence if they would curb emissions they started saying 'well ... ahhh ... well ... ahhh ... we can't jump to conclusions ... ahhh"   lol ... ship of fools ....

hehe.

And then they went to an ethanol plant in NC talking about curbing emissions and he poured a glass of ethanol and joked that he "gave up drinking in 1986." (W)  But that how someday, we'll be using it in our cars.

One can only hope.  Seems we should be speeding up the technology on alternative renewable fuels - that we produce - rather than depending on supplies from countries that basically hate us.  And use our money to fund those who would kill us.

[SunnyFl]

(happ @ Feb. 25 2007,00:39)

QUOTE

A La Niña in 2007?

The chance of a La Niña developing in 2007 is thought to be higher than the long-term average (which is about one in five or 20%) because (a) they have a tendency to follow an El Niño; ( the El Niño has decayed somewhat earlier than normal thereby giving time for a La Niña to begin developing during the critical March to June period; and © a large pool of cold sub-surface water has developed in the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña events are generally associated with wetter

That is definitely not good news

[Exotic Life]

(Tyrone @ Feb. 25 2007,06:54)

QUOTE

(Exotic Life @ Feb. 25 2007,04:32)

QUOTE

I don't know the effect from El Nino here, but what i really know is that we are since May 2005 are the tempeture's above normale average and we broke record after record. But if this is ended ... then this was no effect from El nino i think ? because the mild weather is contined ... The expect also a milder spring then normal after the mildest winter ever ...

Robbin

Me thinks that's to do with global warming more than an El Nino event. One is natural the other is not.

regards

Tyrone

Tyrone,

I think you're right ... global warming is not good for every place, but for here i get more space to plant other species of plants ...

Here is a map form last year July ...

And see this map ...

And if you look to my winter tempeture's that i have got now, you don't think that i live in northwest europe! Also the oecean still to warm, they say now a mild spring ... so what going to be in summer again so very hot ? Maybe that is good for a mild winter again ... we will see ...

Robbin

[amazondk]

(SunnyFl @ Feb. 25 2007,09:19)

QUOTE

(palmblues @ Feb. 25 2007,08:43)

QUOTE

had to laugh as the Bush admin has done a complete flipflop (a favorite right wing press term here) on gw here in Amerika  ... seems they totally 'embraced' the recent major report on man made global warming (as per top officials) but when asked in the next sentence if they would curb emissions they started saying 'well ... ahhh ... well ... ahhh ... we can't jump to conclusions ... ahhh"   lol ... ship of fools ....

hehe.

And then they went to an ethanol plant in NC talking about curbing emissions and he poured a glass of ethanol and joked that he "gave up drinking in 1986." (W)  But that how someday, we'll be using it in our cars.

One can only hope.  Seems we should be speeding up the technology on alternative renewable fuels - that we produce - rather than depending on supplies from countries that basically hate us.  And use our money to fund those who would kill us.

Bush decided to pay some attention to the Southern Hemisphere and is on his way soon down to Brazil.  The big item on the agenda is bio fuels.  And, as Brazil is the world leader in this technology the country has a lot to gain.  All gasoline in Brazil is at least 20 percent ethenol.  And, many cars now run on either pure ethanol or gasoline.  And, some cars also are equiped to run on natural gas as well.  And, lately they have been pushing Bio diesel which is a mixture of diesel and vegetable oils.  Since the U.S. will not be able to supply the bio fuel market internally Brazil will be a major supplier of these fuels.  And, also has the best technology  at the current time.    This may be a first where time Brazil has come out a world leader.  Which is a good thing.

dk

[bgl]

Don,

I agree and I can't see anything but good things come out of this....in the long run, maybe less dependance on oil from countries in the Middle East....countries that deep down really despise what the USA and the West stand for....and maybe Brazil getting some respect and needed hard currency?

How about that, a South American country getting respect from the USA!? Wow, that's a first!

Bo-Göran

[Neofolis]

There is the down side of that arguement, in that, at least now the oil producing countries in the middle east have some reason to co-operate with USA and the western world.  If you take that away, what will they do?

[Bilbo]

I dont know about El Nino, but the palms down here are sure laughing.

I aint going to second guess nature but I am ready to get out there with loadsa SuperJon; (high Nitrate fert with micros) plus humic/fulvic acids.

and it will go on now.

This is awful (frying tonight!) advice for any newbie as its not an easy judgement so dont even bother to feed for at least 2 years, but if you are experienced and you have the temps which I do have  down here (Z9a/b)bwhatever) is right for many palms especially for my Queen who will of course respond to that attention with great enthusiasm as thats sure one of the most responsive  palms to Nitrate that treatment, indeed she reckons it a treat

Regardez

Juan

[amazondk]

Bo,

One thing interesting about the situation of Brazil now is that the country is 100 percent self sufficient with petroleum.  And, there are enormous reserves of oil and gas still to be used.  Granted there is not a lot of light crude, but there is a lot of oil.  This is both along the coast and in Amazonia.  The focus on bio fuel started in the 80's when the country was still very dependent on imported oil.  Unfortunately for us here the price of gasoline has not been lowered by this energy independence.  Petrobras has becoume a major cash cow for the government.  I think that at least one good note for this country is the combination of energy sources being developed and the strong use of bio fuels.

dk