El Nino - part 2............

[trioderob]

leave the politics out of this thread !

scientific discussion only or the thread will go down the friken toilet and get deleted.

looks like this El Nino is going to be very special.

for one - its come on extremely fast from neutral conditions and also there are indicators on the east coast that have not been seen for decades.

might be a very humid and uncomfortable summer on the west coast and in particular where AXEL lives.

Edited May 27, 2014 by trioderob

[Justin]

I was talking to Bill today, and it sounds like (formerly) windward Hawaii is getting a bunch of sun. That'd be great if I had some way of watering 2 acres when I'm not around...If it stops raining, my garden will go to crap.

[CLINODAVE]

I was talking to Bill today, and it sounds like (formerly) windward Hawaii is getting a bunch of sun. That'd be great if I had some way of watering 2 acres when I'm not around...If it stops raining, my garden will go to crap.

Up in Hakalau, we got a little over .25 inches rainfall last night; today was typical trades with passing showers thruout the day. Your garden probably got a nice drink!

Edited May 28, 2014 by CLINODAVE

[Dypsisdean]

I passed 20 inches for May a few days ago, and today it felt like we got a break with only .65 inch. It's been crazy wet. But I don't know if it has anything to do with the El Niño or not. As Axel has reminded me, "causation does not imply correlation."

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

I passed 20 inches for May a few days ago, and today it felt like we got a break with only .65 inch. It's been crazy wet. But I don't know if it has anything to do with the El Niño or not. As Axel has reminded me, "causation does not imply correlation."

Correlation does not imply causation. You're staying up too late, Dean.

[Funkthulhu]

A little refresher: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_nino (Just ignore the parts that conflict with your politics, they're not important in this sense)

My question is, Going to NOAA and looking at the surface and subsurface anomalies the last couple weeks, are we getting a double whammy? It seems there is activity in El Nino areas 1&2, but also 4? So a regular El Nino and an El Nino Modoki?

There are general trends we can expect for the seasonal weather shifts like wetter winters in California and SW United States and decreased upwelling (and lower fishing yields) for a regular El Nino. (and warmer dryer winter in the rest of the US as well as a decreased hurricane season this summer-->fall) But how will those effects be augmented or hindered by a compound event?

Inquiring minds want to know...

EL NINO!

[LJG]

As long as it brings lots of rain to CA I am cool with whatever happens. I just read at current rate we have two years of water storage left in CA. We need a big event so fingers crossed.

[Gtlevine]

I agree, El Nino is suppose to occur every 5 years+/- on average. But the last El Nino we had where we got the big rainfall was back in 1998. Lake Hodges by me is bone dry, must be 50 foot below capacity. SO lets hope this event holds on so we get the rainfall.

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

Will this be a super El Nino or a regular El Nino? http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/26/3417812/el-nino-extreme-weather-global-temperature/. If it's a super El Nino, it could shatter all records this year.

Here are all the El Nino's and La Ninas plotted against global temperature since 1950. it's interesting to see that El Nino pre-1970's represented some much cooler years. But after 1970, El Nino consistently was hot.

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

I did some research to understand the Modoki El Nino. This is an interesting article: New form of El Nino may increase Atlantic hurricanes.

Apparently, this El Nino may be a hybrid of East Pacific and Central Pacific (Modoki) warming. The latter produces more hurricanes in the Atlantic, not less.

2014-15 may turn out to be a whopper, or it can still fizzle out.

And let's not forget about the PDO, we're entering a cool phase of the PDO.

[Gtlevine]

There is one negative about El Nino. If this turns into a super El Nino I am going to have to pin down the black plastic around my Plumerias, Delonix, Colvillea and Adansonia. Those plants can rot in El Nino years, even when they are warm El Nino years. Usually I cut the water off to those plants in November and just let them go dry, and the few days of winter rain is not an issue. But with lots of rain and consisitently wet soil they can run into problems. Just have to see how this shakes out.

Another mistake I made in the last Big El Nino year in the late 90's was not putting in erosion control early winter. In November or December if the rains are coming and the El Nino looks like it will drop heavy rain, I'm breaking out the fiber rolls and sand bags early and just leave them for the winter so I don't have to worry. In the 90's El Nino I had massive soil movement and erosion.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Gtlevine

[trioderob]

we all ready have a real pretty tropical storm off the coast of western Mexico.

her name is Amanda.

[_Keith]

,,,,,,,,,as well as a decreased hurricane season this summer-->fall

we all ready have a real pretty tropical storm off the coast of western Mexico.

her name is Amanda.

Decreased hurricane season or not, like cold winter nights, it only takes one to do a whole lot of damage.

[LJG]

,,,,,,,,,as well as a decreased hurricane season this summer-->fall

we all ready have a real pretty tropical storm off the coast of western Mexico.

her name is Amanda.

Decreased hurricane season or not, like cold winter nights, it only takes one to do a whole lot of damage.

For some reason this came to mind

[Mauna Kea Cloudforest]

The PDO has been in negative territory since the last major El Nino in '97/'98. There is hope that this El Nino will be strong enough to kick us back into a positive PDO phase, which is really good news for palm growers in the higher latitudes and a sign that the drought will break long term for California. Considering that the last 20 years featured repeated freeze events for California, Norcal got hit in Winter '98/'99 and Winter '13/'14, Socal got hit in Winter '06/'07 and again in Winter '12/'13, it would be nice to get a break.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/05/el-ni%C3%B1o-coming-back

[DoomsDave]

I agree, El Nino is suppose to occur every 5 years+/- on average. But the last El Nino we had where we got the big rainfall was back in 1998. Lake Hodges by me is bone dry, must be 50 foot below capacity. SO lets hope this event holds on so we get the rainfall.

YIKE!

That is scary. Check out the Wikipedia pictures.

Got a recent picture, Gary, for comparison?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Hodges

[trioderob]

Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who studies El Niño, told me in an email that we have essentially entered into a weak El Niño and it’s already changing our weather:

Yes, we are into El Niño of sorts but it has not yet taken off in a major way that suggests strong coupling between the atmosphere and ocean has set in. But then we don't usually expect this either at this time of year: the climatological sea surface temperatures are coldest about September and the trade winds strongest. It is after that we really expect it to take off setting the stage for next winter. What we can say is that conditions are such that we have a weak El Nino and the weather will already be quite different with respect to where tropical storms develop and move.

So, where does El Niño go from here?

The most recent model-driven forecast of ocean temperatures by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society shows continued warming consistent with a moderate El Niño, peaking around the end of 2014.

To take into account the atmospheric components of the El Niño phenomenon, NOAA scientist Klaus Wolter helped create a more comprehensive assessment called the “Multivariate ENSO Index,” which combines wind speed and air pressure anomalies, cloudiness, and the more traditional measures of temperature across the tropical Pacific Ocean to determine whether an El Niño might be occurring and its relative strength.

In an analysis by Wolter taking into account all the years since 1950 that have had a similar MEI progression as 2014, eight out of the 10 closest matches eventually went on to become a full-fledged El Niño. Most notably, the 1997-1998 super El Niño was not among the historical analog cases.

It’s still too early to say just how strong this year’s El Niño will be, but its clock has already started: El Niño is here.

Future Tense is a partnership of Slate, New America, and Arizona State University.

Eric Holthaus is a meteorologist who writes about weather and climate for Slate’s Future Tense. Follow him on Twitter.

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