Possible Florida Freeze - January

[RedRabbit]

Happy New Year PT! Florida has had a very warm and dry winter season so far, but will those trends continue into January? Discuss below! 

[RedRabbit]

NWS Tampa Bay made an interesting post on Facebook this morning, apparently there's a lot of disagreement in the models about Friday's forecast. It could be a very mild morning or we might be looking at near freezing temperatures.

 

[kinzyjr]

Looks like weather.com and weather.gov are showing low temperatures in the 40's for this weekend.  Chilly, but not life altering so far.  Seems like we cooled off on New Year's last year after a very warm fall.  My expectation was the same thing this year, but time will tell.  They still have a few days to revise the forecast.

[RedRabbit]

38 is forecast for next Monday morning. I normally see 2f colder than forecast so I'm watching this one closely. 

Edited January 3, 2017 by RedRabbit

[kinzyjr]

50 minutes ago, RedRabbit said:

38 is forecast for next Monday morning. I normally see 2f colder than forecast so I'm watching this one closely. 

That changed pretty fast.  Probably a good one to keep an eye on given the level of uncertainty. 

[RedRabbit]

38 is still forecast for Monday and 39 on Sunday now. Fingers crossed it doesn't drop between now and then.

[Palmaceae]

Mid 40's forecasted here for this coming weekend, I will take that! And a good chance of rain finally, hopefully that will come into fruition.

[gsytch]

They are coming down with the forecasted temps in this cold snap. Sunday is suppose to stay in the middle 50'sF which means 35-40F Monday morning, and freezing Hernando/Citrus/Far East Pasco/Sumter. It will warm, but gradually rather than succintly like the past few cold snaps. It RAINED last night. No gully washer, no drought breaker, but RAIN. First measurable rain since November, I believe. About 1/4". More is predicted for Sat morning. It is January, only 8 more weeks of winter to get through then March hits and spring should arrive. 

[kinzyjr]

Finally got some rain last night and into this morning.  Predictions for this weekend seem to have stopped bouncing up and down... and settled on down.  2 nights in the 30s.

 

[_Keith]

Looks like North Florida for sure is gonna see some sub 30s.  Looking at 28 and 28 here in South Louisiana.  Ouch.

[TexasColdHardyPalms]

 

1 hour ago, _Keith said:

Looks like North Florida for sure is gonna see some sub 30s.  Looking at 28 and 28 here in South Louisiana.  Ouch.

Forecast says 26 in Baton Rouge Sunday morning!!

[Yunder Wækraus]

Looks like we'll dip down to the high 40s on Sat but lows will remain above 50 the next night

[Alan_Tampa]

Tampa area keeps dropping in forecast. Gulf is pretty warm. Some moderation there. But heavy rain will drop it fast, so who knows?

[Xhoniwaters1]

Gulf Panhandle forecasted for 30 on Saturday.Goodbye equatorial subtropical montane aridity (British accent)...it was fun while it lasted

[_Keith]

As of right now Pensacola forecast is 52/31, and second night at 43/27. 

[kinzyjr]

Now that the predictions on temps seem to have stabilized, I've noticed that the chance of rain on Saturday is bouncing around.  It was 100%, then a day ago it was 50% at one point, and now it's at 60%.  Even though I don't want wet roots during a cold snap, we sure could use the extra rain if it comes.

[kinzyjr]

On 1/4/2017, 8:19:33, kinzyjr said:

Finally got some rain last night and into this morning.  Predictions for this weekend seem to have stopped bouncing up and down... and settled on down.  2 nights in the 30s.

 

Ok, now only one night in the 30's and back to 80% chance of rain.  They really don't know on this one...

[_Keith]

Not so fortunate here with projections showing back to back nights at 27 each.

[Xenon]

16 hours ago, _Keith said:

Not so fortunate here with projections showing back to back nights at 27 each.

Same, tonight's forecast for Houston has been dropping for the last several days...I run colder than Houston so will probably see 25F :( 

[IHB1979]

Indian Harbour Beach forecast is down to 48 for Sunday morning. Been trending down.

[Palmaceae]

Trending down here also, low 40's now 

[_Keith]

Looking like we are sighted in at 26 tonight, and 27 tomorrow night.

[gsytch]

Finally got some much needed rainfall. It rained for hours, not always heavily. Has to be over half-inch which by far is the most I have seen since early October. Low expected at 37F but with a biting wind. Then the warmup begins with 66F on Monday and 74F on Tuesday. 

[RedRabbit]

The forecast is for 36 so I'm planning on 33-34 in the garden. Cold, but not cold enough to have me worried about anything.

[kinzyjr]

I don't know how much rain I got here, but it was significant enough to add to the water level of the swimming pool.  Definitely more than I've seen here in a while.  Expected low is 35F here.  I seem to always get higher readings than the airport, so I moved my thermometer to a spot that is more out in the open, and we'll see what happens.

I'll definitely cover the coconut after I dry the fronds with a towel.  Just as important, I'm going to make sure the ground is also covered around it to keep the roots warmer since it rained so much.  Everything else will breeze through this like nothing.

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

I don't know how much rain I got here, but it was significant enough to add to the water level of the swimming pool.  Definitely more than I've seen here in a while.  Expected low is 35F here.  I seem to always get higher readings than the airport, so I moved my thermometer to a spot that is more out in the open, and we'll see what happens.

Thermometer positioning can make a meaningful difference. Tonight I'm keeping 1 in the lanai like usual and the other is getting moved to the garden. I expect a 3-4f difference between the two.

[Alan_Tampa]

Put some frost cloth out as a precaution,  brought in some small sensitive stuff.

Lost part of my Northside windbreak a few years ago, of course that's where the licuala are!

[gsytch]

It is nasty out there. I have currently 46F with winds gusting to 20mph. Feels like winter - who'da thunk it! This up and down game is getting old though. Well, MOnday school's back and off I go anyway so I cannot complain having had some really nice weather during this year's winter break. :-))

[_Keith]

Just dipped to 32 here and it is only 6:30pm.  That will put us at least 16 hours below freezing.   Many things that made it thought last night will not tonight.

[Palmaceae]

5 minutes ago, _Keith said:

Just dipped to 32 here and it is only 6:30pm.  That will put us at least 16 hours below freezing.   Many things that made it thought last night will not tonight.

That's not good, hopefully won't go much lower.

It has dropped to 52 here in SW Florida at 7:30pm with a stiff breeze and a wind chill advisory tonight. Headed to the low 40's.

[_Keith]

24 minutes ago, Palmaceae said:

That's not good, hopefully won't go much lower.

It has dropped to 52 here in SW Florida at 7:30pm with a stiff breeze and a wind chill advisory tonight. Headed to the low 40's.

We are heading to 26.   But I was broken back in 2010 and 2013.  No matter what happens I'll sleep like a baby tonight.

[bubba]

Just left a restaurant in PB. Car temperature registered 63 F. Hoping that low temperature will make it into the 50's F. That would be swell. Feb. freeze of 1899 took place in a similar Florida winter (or lack thereof) but not much real So. Fla. data for that episode, when Lemon City was a Seminole trading post without real thermometers.This too shall pass.

[kinzyjr]

11 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Thermometer positioning can make a meaningful difference. Tonight I'm keeping 1 in the lanai like usual and the other is getting moved to the garden. I expect a 3-4f difference between the two.

Seems like the thermometer is now reading more in line with some of the other areas.  Right now, sitting at 41.5F according to the thermometer with the new placement.  Accuweather has 39F, weather.com has 40F, and the closest reading to me on weather underground is 42F.  Wind is blowing like a jet engine out there.

It looks like the papaya isn't handling things too well, but it was declining before the chill.

[gsytch]

It is 35F right now, and there is light frost on top of the car. They missed this one. Got colder than they said. The winds died down which made the difference. It is going to be a COLD day here! 

[IHB1979]

Low of 42 here in Indian Harbour Beach. 6 degrees below forecast of 48. Still very windy at 7:45am.

[Cocoa Beach Jason]

Got down to 42 in my backyard last night. My guess is parts of the yard saw 40 on the north side (pure guess). Coldest temp of the season and colder than the prediction. It makes me nervous when the forecasters can be 6-8 degrees off. 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Cocoa Beach Jason

[Bill H2DB]

  Low at my house   36.7          NWS spot forecast was 38 .      Pretty decent .   

[kinzyjr]

34.5F this morning, but no frost.  Only off by a degree or 2, depending on the source of the forecast.  Not surprised the forecast was off by a lot more in other areas.  The amount of changes to the forecast this week, seemingly by the hour at some points, told the story in this case.

[Bill H2DB]

   Here is an interesting Visible sat. View showing the air flow this morning  .

Note the " shadow" being caused by the Florida land mass .

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20050806&endTime=-1&duration=10

 

 

[RedRabbit]

31.6f in the garden and around 34f from the lanai... The Tampa Bay Area was surprisingly cold this go around.