A blessing, and a curse.. that time of year again

[Silas_Sancona]

As mentioned in passing by other local members, the forth coming week ahead looks brutal here in the desert.. Really, this time of year in the Sonoran Desert, and entire Southwest is both something we do and perhaps don't look forward to.

June here is typically the hottest and driest month, on average. While daily highs in the lower 100s, and very low humidity/ dew point readings are typical, the exceptional heat building atm is not. As suggested, Phoenix may indeed reach.. if not surpass 120f by Tuesday and/ or Wednesday. The hottest recorded temp via the official weather station at Sky Harbor is 122f recorded on June 20th, 1990. These days, with all the neighborhood weather stations, ..and as seen last year, some areas can surpass that temperature, even if Sky Harbor doesn't. This might be one of those years a weather station somewhere in the valley reaches into the 130f range.. perhaps a run at 140f?

WX models have wavered back and forth ..with acouple suggesting 500mb heights reaching 600dm.. which is not only exceptional, but might ..should that happen, almost guarantee a run at breaking 1990's all time high, we'll see what happens.. I can't imagine hitting 125f. 

For anyone who may be in town next week, take the heat very seriously.. this isn't your typical " Phoenix Heatwave"

For all of us with plants, especially stuff in containers, extreme heat can easily cause significant damage. While the heat helps get things growing earlier on, everything slows down. Or stops growing entirely this time of year. Shade, of any kind, helps tremendously. Still, the heat+ very low ( or non existant) humidity levels are a curse since everything can dry out extremely quickly. Even with frequent watering.

Still, there is a silver lining to the blast furnace ahead. Without our heat, there wouldn't be a monsoon season here.

While everyone here is dreading the week ahead, this kind of heat will help get the monsoon engine cranking just south of the border, and over Baja.

An explination: It is the temperature contrast between the land and sea that starts the " Gulf Surge" process that helps funnel moisture north into Arizona and New Mexico. Another aspect in play is how the heat helps set up a thermal low over far S.E. California and higher pressure over the S.W. tip of the Baja Peninsula. The is set up further aids in funneling moisture north. The mountains in Sonora, Mexico have already started the " Green up" process and should also start sending moisture north. I've also noticed a more favorable set up for easterly wave activity ( surges of moist air that move east to west across the Gulf of Mexico/ western Caribbean into S. Texas/  eastern Mexico, than turn north/ northwest over Sinaloa and Sonora) over the past few weeks. Hopefully this is a sign of a good rainy season  for the southwest ahead. Models ( gfs, gfs-para, couple others) are currently showing some sort of activity toward the end of the month. We'll need it after next week.

No matter how it plays out, ( unless we get nothing. Very bad) monsoon season is the reward, the blessing, for what summer brings us here in the Desert. Growth resumes, heat gets tempered/ higher humidity makes for some nice, Florida-esque summer, evenings, .and the "scent of the Desert"  after a good downpour, and lightning storms are worth it. We could live without the dust storms and the concerns they bring each year but they're partially a result of human error/ ignorance , ie: stripping away the desert's natural vegetation, leaving non planted fields bare( cover crop-less) and subject to blowing. Even so, it's kind of cool to walk outside for a moment as a dust storm is rolling in, hearing thunder, but not being able to see where it is coming from since the storm itself is obscured in a dusty brown sky.. it's a storm chasing thing, trust me.

Before relief , we'll see just how hot it can get..

Anyway, be safe out there, and welcome to summer. 

[Yunder Wækraus]

Things any pretty hot and in my old California hometown too. They are calling for daytime highs up to 109 for days on end, which, to be honest, happens a couple times a year there anyway.  But it was certainly never fun, especially for me as a kid in a house with no central air back in the 1990s. Here in Florida, things could not be better! We've had heavy rain almost every day--I LOVE the rainy season!-- and with the wonderful rain coming amazingly cool temperatures. For example, right now to 7 PM and it is exactly 70° outside; during the screen, my overnight low was above 70°! Good luck out there in Arizona :-(

[Silas_Sancona]

On Fri Jun 16 2017 16:02:44 GMT-0700, Yunder Wækraus said:

Things any pretty hot and in my old California hometown too. They are calling for daytime highs up to 109 for days on end, which, to be honest, happens a couple times a year there anyway.  But it was certainly never fun, especially for me as a kid in a house with no central air back in the 1990s. Here in Florida, things could not be better! We've had heavy rain almost every day--I LOVE the rainy season!-- and with the wonderful rain coming amazingly cool temperatures. For example, right now to 7 PM and it is exactly 70° outside; during the screen, my overnight low was above 70°! Good luck out there in Arizona :-(

You're right about the California extent of the heatwave. Saw earlier that San Jose broke a record today ( 103f) as well as other spots around the bay area and over the hill in the Central Valley. Red bluff supposedly topped 111f. Was 113f here.

Also having growing up back in San Jose until we left in 1997, I can also recall those days during the summer it would top 100+. Always liked that the evenings stayed warm and felt like "Summer" instead of foggy and cold. The best days were the humid, " earthquake weather" days we'd see a little monsoonal leftovers make it far enough north to bring a shower or thunderstorm. That's one thing that always made me want to move somewhere like Florida where something rare ( in the bay area) was far more common during the summers. 

Looking at the next few days, we might not top the before mentioned all time high Tuesday or Wed. Instead trading 120 for 118 or 119f. There's also a chance some moisture starts creeping in from the east with some scattered cloud cover shaving a degree or two off afternoon highs., We might also see our first dust storm possibility if any storms survive moving off the mountains and out into lower elevations between Phoenix and Tucson Wednesday, or so was suggested in the evening forecast.

Thank God Florida finally started getting rain again.. Honestly, it was those rainless, super hot/ humid  days that were the worst back there. Still surprises me how fast everything  i had would dry out. Now, you guys have to start watching the Gulf.. 

 

[Yunder Wækraus]

3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

You're right about the California extent of the heatwave. Saw earlier that San Jose broke a record today ( 103f) as well as other spots around the bay area and over the hill in the Central Valley. Red bluff supposedly topped 111f. Was 113f here.

Also having growing up back in San Jose until we left in 1997, I can also recall those days during the summer it would top 100+. Always liked that the evenings stayed warm and felt like "Summer" instead of foggy and cold. The best days were the humid, " earthquake weather" days we'd see a little monsoonal leftovers make it far enough north to bring a shower or thunderstorm. That's one thing that always made me want to move somewhere like Florida where something rare ( in the bay area) was far more common during the summers. 

Looking at the next few days, we might not top the before mentioned all time high Tuesday or Wed. Instead trading 120 for 118 or 119f. There's also a chance some moisture starts creeping in from the east with some scattered cloud cover shaving a degree or two off afternoon highs., We might also see our first dust storm possibility if any storms survive moving off the mountains and out into lower elevations between Phoenix and Tucson Wednesday, or so was suggested in the evening forecast.

Thank God Florida finally started getting rain again.. Honestly, it was those rainless, super hot/ humid  days that were the worst back there. Still surprises me how fast everything  i had would dry out. Now, you guys have to start watching the Gulf.. 

 

Yeah, last summer was miserable. Our town is much drier than the mainland anyway, but last summer was ridiculous: virtually no rain for the better part of two summer months, which meant unrelenting sun and stifling heat. And we still got hit by a hurricane! Hoping for better things this time around :-)

[DoomsDave]

Here along the coast, we're having June Gloom, to be followed by July Fry, August and the Embers of September.