Concern for Leilani Estates as lava moves eastward underground

[Justin]

I'm so sorry Kim.  This whole thing sucks.  I'm finally getting to know so many of our neighbors here, and invariably one of the first things I learn about them is that they just lost their house or they're about to.

[WestCoastGal]

Kim, I'm assuming you never had the opportunity to move anything out either. Up until the beginning of this month I'm sure the thought of imminent lava eruptions weren't really a strong possibility or a reality at least. It's not a given either that an outbreak will happen that way. From owners comments I've been reading the not knowing really is wearing on people the most. Hoping you get lucky.

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I just got a heads up that Civil Beat posted a new video from last night. Shows Pohoiki Road and Hwy 132 junction crossing (from F8 river). Said video footage was taken last night between 9:30 and midnight as part of a media escort Anthony Quintano was part of. The second portion of the video is F8 at Leilani Community Park on Moku.

 

[WestCoastGal]

Generated this map just now, with the exception of the high area of Kahukai by the pig house, looks like the lava has reached all the other voids there were. Interestingly despite seeing lava on Bill's property from Scott the other day the map is still showing that area of Kahukai near Makamae still untouched. Hmm. New locations for F8's reach down Hwy 132 marked. 

[WestCoastGal]

6 hours ago, Moose said:

 

Thanks for finding this video by Jason Twillman's brother. Gives a lot more perspective on where Jason's property is located and more info on those old ground fissures that I hope do help save more of Jason's land from the lava. The prospect of farmers like Jason losing not only thieir homes but their business at the same time is so high in this area.

[WestCoastGal]

Latest update from Mileka's fb page:

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Ryan Finlay posted this to fb Hawaii Tracker Group. Looks like Four Corners is close to being crossed. Photos including aerials on the site. More info on the Noni Farms and lower Puna areas. People willing to help evac in the area, animals being rescued. 

 

 

[Moose]

1 hour ago, Kim said:

My interpretation exactly. My house is gonna be toast sooner or later.

But not today. The future is so uncertain, but for today your house and beloved garden exists.

[Moose]

[Moose]

[Moose]

Talks about Bill and why he removed Bill's House video upload

 Bill's house was still standing the last anyone knew. A confirmation will get uploaded soon.

Edited June 1, 2018 by Moose

[Kim]

@Moose Right, for today. Every day without lava coming up my driveway is a good day. I will be there as soon as I can (early June), pick up a few items, take masses of photos if I'm lucky, give Pele my whole liquor cabinet (as skimpy as it is) for a sacrifice. I have not been a believer, but always respect traditions "just in case"

[Justin]

@Kimif you're out here before the 11th, please let me know.  I'd be happy to host a get-together for as many of the LE Palmtalkers as are around, and we can lament over drinks and talk story.

[Moose]

 

[Dypsisdean]

I was just listening to the latest USGS conference call, and one geologist commented that the estimated amount of lava that has so far left the "summit storage region" was 2%. Take from that what you wish, but to me that would indicate the unfortunate possibility that this event may still be closer to the beginning than the end.

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

4 minutes ago, Dypsisdean said:

I was just listening to the latest USGS conference call, and one geologist commented that the estimated amount of lava that has so far left the "summit storage region" was 2%. Take from that what you wish, but to me that would indicate the unfortunate possibility that this event may still be closer to the beginning than the end.

Dean , by comparison to the 1955 lava flow, that sounds about right. In one of Scoot's earlier videos, he was talking with some of the geologists from UDGS who unofficially said that flow was 1% of the total available magma. It was a reply to Scott's inquiry as to the quantity of magma was in the ground.

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

 

[Dave-Vero]

Already out of date, but the continuing rapid and extensive advances add to the suggestion that things could go on for a while.  Then again, the eruption seemingly started with cool magma left over from 1955.  Temperature, pressure, viscosity, degassing, presence of ground water.    All sorts of possible factors.  

[Moose]

 

[WestCoastGal]

2 hours ago, Moose said:

 

Hated to see Tom's house reduced to this. And go figure the house is gone but the workshop beyond looks just fine. And amazing the lava so far stopped short of Bill's house. 

[WestCoastGal]

31 minutes ago, Moose said:

 

Forget the roar of the fissure, I find the tephra falling more the point of interest in the video. @Justin are you getting tephra where you're at? 

[Hilo Jason]

There's been a lot of talk here locally (and abroad) about the Puna Geothermal Venture.  Since I'm new to the Big Island, I was not here many years ago when many local residents fought very hard to keep this plant from being built here.  So I don't know enough to have a stance one way or another, but came across this article today and sounds like they have $100 million in insurance on the place.  So even if it all gets covered, they're still making out ok.  Much better than many of the local people down there.  

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ormat-provides-an-update-on-the-puna-power-plant-in-hawaii-following-the-kilauea-volcanic-eruption-1025975808

[WestCoastGal]

2 hours ago, Dypsisdean said:

I was just listening to the latest USGS conference call, and one geologist commented that the estimated amount of lava that has so far left the "summit storage region" was 2%. Take from that what you wish, but to me that would indicate the unfortunate possibility that this event may still be closer to the beginning than the end.

Somewhere I read that USGS were able to say that two of the fissures (want to say F8 and another one) were putting out Pu'uO'o lava. Guessing that's why they take samples of the lava and can tell where it might have come from based on the mineral content or something. Would be interesting to hear from a geologist about that. But if that's just Pu'uO'o coming out now, there's all that and I would have to guess the Summit lava in the plumbing still to come. I read an interesting comment from someone, believe it was on one of Scott's videos, and maybe this is where I'm hearing this from about IDing the source of the lava, but he believes a new cone like Pu'uO'o will form down in the Puna area and essentially take it's place. And this was one of several different scenarios that the scientists were considering. I really wish there was some way that we were able to see the pathways in the earth the lava is taking. Were these pathways there from earlier flows were tubes underground were formed as the island was forming there? Can the magma at that depth, due to it's temperature, kind of melt the rock around it and form it's own paths (that is what the hot spots do)?

Wonder if our USGS in Palo Alto, CA is doing any monthly lectures on this. When we lived closer we use to attend them regularly and always found them interesting (flooded central valley from Sacramento down south, Mt. Saint Helens, earthquake faults in the area, Yellowstone mega-hot spot, Mono Lake, Brea Tar Pits, etc.)  ....Just looked it up and not seeing one on the Kilauea eruptions yet but here's their calendar for the next few months for anyone in the San Francisco Bay area: https://online.wr.usgs.gov/calendar/  Maybe it will be the June 28 or August topic. BTW they can be watched Live Streaming (using HTTP Live Streaming (HLS) protocol. Past lectures can be viewed using an Adobe Flash Player.

[Justin]

46 minutes ago, WestCoastGal said:

Forget the roar of the fissure, I find the tephra falling more the point of interest in the video. @Justin are you getting tephra where you're at? 

I certainly got some over the weekend, when the wind was blowing out of the southeast (instead of northeast), but nothing since I got here on Tuesday.  The air has actually been a little better than when I was here before.  This is just my personal experience and opinion, but it seems like there is less gas than before, even if far more lava.  My (un)educated guess is that the gas came out in higher concentrations at the beginning, and less now that there is more liquid.  The analogy I am thinking of is champagne or a shaken soda - a lot of gas and a little liquid comes out first, and then the remaining liquid has the "normal" amount of gas.

[Dave-Vero]

Justin, I think your guess about gas is pretty shrewd.  Volcanic eruptions always involve degassing as magma rises, pressure decreases and gas comes out of solution.  More than a  bit like carbonated water.  The huge fissure 8 fountain has been erupting very smoothly with little spitting.  Might be just the enormous volume, may also be relatively little gas.  

I would not be surprised if the movement of magma is widening the fissures, tubes, or whatever conduits the magma is following gravity and gas pressure to move wherever it's going.  I would expect gas to be tending to move up, liquid to be finding its way down.  Which would affect which fissure(s) are active. 

I only had one geology course (I'm a non mathematical biologist) but was introduced fairly well to pressure and temperature.  Also have lived around volcanoes.

[Dave-Vero]

Civil Defense has some photos of work on Chain of Craters road.  Looks like they have really good equipment and are proceeding quickly.  

[Justin]

9 minutes ago, Dave-Vero said:

Justin, I think your guess about gas is pretty shrewd.  Volcanic eruptions always involve degassing as magma rises, pressure decreases and gas comes out of solution.  More than a  bit like carbonated water.  The huge fissure 8 fountain has been erupting very smoothly with little spitting.  Might be just the enormous volume, may also be relatively little gas.  

I would not be surprised if the movement of magma is widening the fissures, tubes, or whatever conduits the magma is following gravity and gas pressure to move wherever it's going.  I would expect gas to be tending to move up, liquid to be finding its way down.  Which would affect which fissure(s) are active. 

I only had one geology course (I'm a non mathematical biologist) but was introduced fairly well to pressure and temperature.  Also have lived around volcanoes.

I never used it for a real job, but I do have an engineering degree, and took courses in fluid dynamics, chemical engineering, chemistry, physics, the whole nine, and some of that sits in the deep - deep - recesses of my brain.  But I also remember stuff from when I was putting together my sprinkler system in Vista 15 years ago, and how pressure greatly increased as water went downhill.  If I recall right, in addition to the static pressure, there is an additional hydrostatic pressure of (rho) x (gravity) x (height in meters).  Rho is a constant that varies for each liquid, and I have no clue what it is for liquid magma.  But I do know that the same lava coming out around 200-250 meters of elevation now was at 1000 meters of elevation just a few weeks ago.  That's a lot of pressure just from the elevation drop.  So it makes sense that when it first comes out, the pressure is much higher, and after that pressure subsides to normal pressure, the gas stays dissolved in the liquid.  Again, the USGS knows this much better, I'm just an armchair analyst.

[WestCoastGal]

San Jose, CA man cited for using a drone he was operating from Nanawale Estates.  http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2018/06/01/hawaii-news/man-cited-for-operating-drone-near-eruption-area/

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How about this report of a man who crashed his truck into a lava flow: http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2018/06/01/hawaii-news/man-crashes-truck-into-highway-132-lava-flow/

 

 

[WestCoastGal]

Fissure 8 lava in Leilani Estates in aerial footage from Mick Kalber heading towards Kapoho. I have to wonder what it was about Leilani Estates ground structure that this time around Kilauea chose it for it's powerful fissure points. Sort of why here, why now type of question.

5/30/18:

5/31/18:

 

[Moose]

Has anyone noticed that the Mick Kalber dashboard hula girl is a constant in each video while the companion duck changes? 

[Dave-Vero]

Justin, you're way ahead of me on the fluid engineering.  Those impressive Mick Kalber videos seem to support the notion that the mighty Fissure 8 fountain is artesian in nature, not a gas-powered ejection.  Hydrostatic pressure might be estimated from the height of the fountain.  It's certainly impressive.  I guess even more so if you get the impression that most magma gets inserted underground, creating new fissures and such, and that what shows up on the surface is more or less "leakage."  I suppose some of the older Hawaiian volcanoes offer slices into old shield volcanoes, and there might be some estimates of how much rock is subaerial lava and how much intrusive.  

Of course there's places that have had unbelievably voluminous lava flows.  Oregon is relatively settled down for the moment, but there were flows that made it all the way from present-day Idaho to the Pacific via the Columbia River.  

Mick Kalber's bottom video is classic for showing the lava breaking out of the well established stream and running off in a different direction.  

[Moose]

 

Economic downturn. I agree that the "big" media coverage does sensationalize what's happening. Localized footage making the Big Island overall situation look like a Doom and Gloom

We have a local station here in Miami that has a "if it bleeds it leads" format. Unfortunately many folks like to tune in to it.

Edited June 2, 2018 by Moose

[Moose]

 

[Moose]

Looks like these guys know their craft.

[Moose]