Concern for Leilani Estates as lava moves eastward underground

[WestCoastGal]

Last one to share for the night and heading for . This was posted by Travis Sanders (fb Lava News). Looks like a cruise ship sailing past and then you see the lava action at the coast--all lit up in orange red and quite amazing to see with the clouds overhead focusing the light below.

 

[WestCoastGal]

After looking at the giant (car/truck size) chunks of lava in the channels and in the ocean, I recalled this image.

OK if the image isn't scary enough I just had this thought. This was from YT Princess Libra 16's Paradise Helicopter tour on 6/17. When I saw this image of the cone I was taken aback. While I've seen F8's cone viewed from many different sides, never saw it quite like this. I've assumed that the giant lava chunks seen in the channels have come from lava breakoffs of the cones, channel walls or in the case of the floaters maybe the lava edge at the coast. Not to be an alarmist here, but tonight I was thinking back to this image and the F8 cone wall. Down in the Pohoiki fissure area and around F20/17 we observed over a several weeks spatter cones building up and breaking down and repeating that cycle over time. The lava now coming from F8's cone is emerging around 17-20mph, so with good force. What happens to the channel flow if more of the cone breaks off near that narrow opening? It's getting pressure from the emerging, flowing lava. The sudden wider opening would be disasterous and believe would overwhelm the current channel that's been built which so far has kept the lava river in check and moving out to the ocean unimpeded. I've heard people talk about rampart breakouts, and we've seen a few happening in recent days, but don't recall this cone scenario being discussed. I would think this is a real possibility, no? And if you think of it Kapoho Crater had a fairly wide opening on one side.

[Dave-Vero]

The stability of Fissure 8 and its outflow channel seems to have impressed the geologists.  I'm sure there's intramural guessing as to what might happen next, but public modesty is appropriate in the face of inability to anticipate what's next for such a large event, one without really useful recent precedents.  

My own guess is that if pressure in the magma system is reasonably steady, the cracks and tubes conducting the magma to Vent 8 have likely been adjusting in size, with flow perhaps becoming more efficient, perhaps cutting the chances for other fissures to become active, unless there's a blockage.   Even though the channel and its levees appear to be above the surroundings, the physics are in favor of flow staying in that hot, fast channel rather than straying across the cold levee where lava fairly quickly gets cold and sticky.  

The village of Volcano is in a difficult situation, so of course moving the art center seems a great idea.  I'm reminded a bit of a summer calamity in Ashland, Oregon.  A main structural beam in the Oregon Shakespeare Festival's indoor theater cracked.  Only through massive ingenuity was the season pretty much saved.  

[Moose]

Some explosive lava ocean entry

 

[Moose]

Sunrise yesterday at the lava ocean entry

 

[Moose]

3 hours ago, WestCoastGal said:

After looking at the giant (car/truck size) chunks of lava in the channels and in the ocean, I recalled this image.

OK if the image isn't scary enough I just had this thought. This was from YT Princess Libra 16's Paradise Helicopter tour on 6/17. When I saw this image of the cone I was taken aback. While I've seen F8's cone viewed from many different sides, never saw it quite like this. I've assumed that the giant lava chunks seen in the channels have come from lava breakoffs of the cones, channel walls or in the case of the floaters maybe the lava edge at the coast. Not to be an alarmist here, but tonight I was thinking back to this image and the F8 cone wall. Down in the Pohoiki fissure area and around F20/17 we observed over a several weeks spatter cones building up and breaking down and repeating that cycle over time. The lava now coming from F8's cone is emerging around 17-20mph, so with good force. What happens to the channel flow if more of the cone breaks off near that narrow opening? It's getting pressure from the emerging, flowing lava. The sudden wider opening would be disasterous and believe would overwhelm the current channel that's been built which so far has kept the lava river in check and moving out to the ocean unimpeded. I've heard people talk about rampart breakouts, and we've seen a few happening in recent days, but don't recall this cone scenario being discussed. I would think this is a real possibility, no? And if you think of it Kapoho Crater had a fairly wide opening on one side.

Debbie - my thoughts are that the Fissure 8 cone may be structurally different than the F20/17 system we observed on the old Civil Beat live stream. F8 is being formed by a higher temperature lava with splatters on the exterior, fusing to the existing layer. On the interior it getting continually worn away slowly and increasing it interior girth. Remember what we are seeing is the top of the cone, the base is very wide surrounding it vent. The increased flow continued force of the lava emerging is evidence that the cone has remained structurally sound to withstand of a wall failing. A conical pyramid if you please.

The breakouts on the ramparts are overflows due to the increased speed and quantity of material in the river. The breakouts are going over not through rampart walls. These overflows are short lived and are increasing the strength of the levees. So a sudden wider opening in either the cone wall or in the levees is not impossible, but the chances are remote - at least how I see it.

Yes you are very correct that a major breakout would be disastrous, even catastrophic if it happened where lives and homes would be affected. I do see that a major breakout could occur if a local heavy earthquake happened in the 6's or greater. That would be an event that could disrupt the cone walls or the current lava levee system. Other than the eruption ending, the current scenario of Fissure 8 emptying it's lava into the ocean is good one. Better than it's trekking over forested preexisting land, it's creating new ocean front properties that will probably have houses built on them in about 100 years.   

Edited June 21, 2018 by Moose

[Moose]

Building fast, it's all brand new State of Hawaii property.

 

[Kim]

16 hours ago, Mike in LB said:

I'll take a stab at this, even though my thought processes after 47 days of being a refugee are less than ideal.

1.  I visited the Puna District and Leilani Estates in 2010 with merely the desire to hang out and see things. It was my first trip to Hawaii.  I had no long-term intentions or goals, as I was relatively content and comfortable in Southern California. 

2.  I enjoyed the first few days, and visited various gardens including Bo Goran's former garden on Malama St.  Things were fun, but that was about it.  Then, after a full 10 days in Puna, something changed.  I knew with 100% certainty that I would be moving here permanently.  There was absolutely no doubt in my mind.  It was a combination of factors - affordable land (in acres not sq ft!!!), friendly people, laid-back lifestyle, great climate (no heating or AC required), abundant water (important for palm gardens), etc.  The fit was just about perfect.

3.  Even though Leilani Estates is in Lava Zone 1, it has been in existence for almost 50 years with no lava flows.  I believe (not sure) that the current lava flow/coverage today exceeds anything that has happened since 1800.  Thus, it didn't seem to me to be an unreasonable risk to buy 4 acres + house here, with the expectation that I'd only need about 20 years here (likely life span) without incident. 

4.  Leilani Estates has mail delivery, high-speed internet, low crime, somewhat better shaped lots than other subdivisions (where lots might be roughly 100 ft wide by 1000 ft deep), and less traffic than subdivisions closer to Hilo.  It's a nice sweet spot for many things other than the Lava Zone consideration.

5.  I've enjoyed living in Leilani Estates for almost 6 years now.  I don't regret a thing, even though I'll probably lose my place to the lava.

Mike Arends

Leilani Estates

My experience and outlook has been very similar to Mike's in many respects.

My first visit to Hawaii was in 1971, well before any interest in palms. Even so, I was blown away by the lush tropical vegetation, the waterfalls, the power of the ocean, and the air. Yes, the air. It was sweet, warm and more humid than California, and just energizing.

Fast forward to the Big Island in 2009 after a few return visits with family, and I was looking for real estate. I had done a lot of research online and on PalmTalk, and was at a point in my when that I realized I could, in fact, pull off the dream of gardening in Hawaii. I had narrowed the search to the rain-soaked east side of the Big Island, a mirror of Mike's thinking in 3 and 4 above.

It was a calculated risk. I used to joke about the possibility of lava bursting out of the ground in my driveway, but convinced myself it would not happen in my lifetime. While it hasn't popped up in my driveway, it's way too close, and not so funny anymore. People may think lava zone 1 is a foolhardy choice, but there are many areas of the island that could potentially be inundated by lava, including all the big hotels on the west side, and Hilo itself, and those areas have much, much higher real estate prices. Mauna Loa, though quiet for many years now, could erupt and obliterate these areas, but when you are enjoying a meal in Café Pesto in the historic S. Hata building from 1912, you don't imagine the possibility of lava inundation or even tsunami, which ravaged the town in 1946 and 1960. When you kick back with a mai tai poolside at one of the fabulous hotels on the Kohala coast, you forget the hotel is built on bulldozed lava fields, even though the stark remains are just across the highway.

Everywhere has some form of natural disaster. Hurricanes, tornados, wildfires, floods, mudslides, earthquakes, tsunami; all occur infrequently enough that humans tidy up and rebuild. Lava, being far less frequent an experience, is even easier to forget about or discount. So here we are.

Laugh if you will, but I had kept the original packaging for some of my belongings in the event I would have to leave. That came in very handy 2 weeks ago when I packed up my few sentimental items from the house. The rest, just "stuff", is safe, should I return someday. There is room for a sliver of hope, though the neighborhood is forever changed.

My time in Leilani Estates has been nearly 9 years of gardening in paradise. That's a lot more than most people get.

LEILANI STRONG

#stayclassypuna

 

[WestCoastGal]

Morning is arriving on the BI. Here's the view from PGV's cam from 6/21 @ 5:45am HST (8:45am PDT).

And our morning view from Keaau (Honolulu Civil Beat cam, which just went live a few minutes ago).

Here's the link to this morning's Live Feed: 

 

[WestCoastGal]

USGS update: 

Alert was last updated yesterday 6/20 @ 10:35pm HST (1:35am PDT): https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/status.html

The Photos were updated since I last posted yesterday and now include several more including one of the area that use to be the Halema'uma'u parking lot--it has now fallen into the Crater. It keeps widening. There's a photo of a geologist taking temperature readings at the cracks in F10 in Leilani Estates (500F).

No new Maps since last mentioned here.

[WestCoastGal]

@santoury Hawaii Tribune-Herald just did a story on Tuesday's Pahoa Community Meeting that I listened to with the USGS geologist. He talked about the milestone that's been reached in comparison to the other Pu'uO'o eruptions from Kilauea. Thought you might find it interesting read. http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2018/06/21/hawaii-news/eruption-shows-no-signs-of-slowing/

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The Hawaii Medical Service Association presented a $20K donation to Hope Services Hawaii. Hope Services is the group building the temp micro units at Sacred Heart Church in Pahoa. Great donation and should go a long way to finishing the units or purchasing more. 

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Wow 10 days after being considered abandoned the new bill signed by Gov. Ige requires Counties to take possession of the cars. Article lays out the provisions of the bill. I'm assuming abandoned vehicles have been a problem on the island. Also mentions 2 other bills that were signed into law, one dealing with the distance of separation a car must observe when passing a bicyclist (Calif added something like this on their books recently) and a bill requiring owners to apply for a certificate of title of a boat within 10 days of purchase.

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It's hard to read about older evacuees struggling to find housing. I think what if they were my parents and at that age having to deal with everything. Saw this story of Jud Fero of Kapoho Farms on Hawaii News Now.

 

 

[WestCoastGal]

I see the live feed went down and a new link has been posted as of 2 min. ago:

 

[Moose]

Scott early morning schmoozing with the USGS folks

Speed of lava leaving Fissure 8 estimated at 18.6 miles per hour. Can't run from lava that fast.

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Moose

[Moose]

Fissure 8 still pumping lots of lava into the river in Leilani Estates

 

[Moose]

Civil Defense morning message update

 

[WestCoastGal]

Report on conditions in Pahoa last night from fb Jessie Hopgood (on Hawaii Tracker group):

I think Civil Beat needs to find a location in Pahoa.

[Mike in LB]

Major power outage around 10:15 am. Power out in Orchidland and Leilani Estates.

Mike Arends

[WestCoastGal]

From the Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Mayor Kim is back at work after being released from the hospital.

Here's the totals as of this morning. The number of homes verified damaged has grown to 598. Latest number of FEMA Disaster Recovery Center registered is 1,015. US Small Business Admin has handled 381 federal disaster loans. 74 people cited for loitering in East Rift Zone. More updates in the article.

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A story on the mental toll on evacuees and how little professional help there is for them. Leads with one evacuee from LE, who lost her home, feeling of community and friends and neighbors she's known.  http://www.staradvertiser.com/2018/06/21/hawaii-news/lavas-ravages-take-a-toll-on-residents-mental-health/  For those staying at a shelter it's got to be especially hard on them feeling that they can't physically leave what little belongings they have with them to go with a friend or neighbor out for a cup of coffee or a meal (which I'm sure would do them a world of good mentally) for fear of their property being stolen. Somehow I think this issue needs solving early on. 

Now this is my personal option I'll venture out here with but I think people also need a sense of purpose, be it a job or helping someone else out...maybe something as simple as putting together care packages, helping with construction or finishing of micro homes with Habitat for Humanity (painting or other easy enough tasks), planting gardens around the micro units to make the places look less stark or tending to a vegetable garden or be part of a group who'll help some hard hit farmers pick their crops. Some type of community project like that I think would help alot of people mentally. I haven't really heard about things like this in the press. More I've read about others doing for the evacuees, which is great too, but I don't think it helps people feel like they can stand on their own and be a contributing member to the community and after 7 weeks some may desperately need that. While medications can numb some of the stress, as kind of stated in the article, they can be a crutch going forward that people feel they can't do without. I'll liken this growing issue somewhat to what I recall hearing about the Great Depression when people lost so much and struggled to get by with so little. While FDR received a lot of criticism for his New Deal I think the public works program helped many feel useful and it did help build up the country. Not saying that's what I'm suggesting here in the same vein but still something along those lines for a smaller affected population. In any case the longer this goes on without some more permanent source of housing for evacuee homeless the larger the issue will become. Well my two cents.

 

[WestCoastGal]

27 minutes ago, Mike in LB said:

Major power outage around 10:15 am. Power out in Orchidland and Leilani Estates.

Mike Arends

Civil Beat cam is down. I wonder if they lost power in Hawaiian Paradise Park.

[WestCoastGal]

Civil Beat's feed is back up. Moderator said they lost power due to a fallen tree. Nice and sunny now. New link I think:

 

[WestCoastGal]

Ryan Finlay (fb Hawaii Tracker group) has this update on Fissure 10.

Check out video and closer view of photos here: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10155848073855749&set=pcb.1007361659429652&type=3&theater&ifg=1

[WestCoastGal]

Some of you might remember Thirdphaseofmoon's LE friend Buzzy (in some of the early LE eruption videos of theirs). He was in helping a friend evacuate yesterday (6/20) and sent this footage to Thirdphaseofmoon for posting.

 

[WestCoastGal]

When I was looking for the newest link for the live feed on YT, I noticed a video featured "Man gives eye-opening house tour after lava flows through property" on YT's The Weather Network. Decided to give it a look and surprise! it was filmed back on May 23 by Tam Hunt who lived in the house on Moku where Bo sold those palms to. He gives a tour of his property and shows his neighbor's lot which was totally destroyed by lava. He also shows the neighbor's house on the other side that was falling into the huge cracks. I'm sure you'll recognize being here before if you've watched Scott's trips down to Moku.

 

[bgl]

Oh, that's fascinating! And apologies for being absent here for quite some time. I have been in Thailand for a while (I like the fact that they have power and internet here...  - critical for the work I do), but will be back on the Big Island next week. Definitely an interesting video. And not that it makes a difference but that's a "new" owner of that house. When I sold the palms (probably 30 or so, total), it was to a woman in her early to mid 60s who owned the house. Her boyfriend (same age) was also there when we walked around and I advised them on good locations for the various palms. The present owner is clearly a different (and younger) person.

And while I am here anyway - Mike (in LB), so sorry about everything that you and your brother have had to endure during this difficult time. So many people who have had to endure incredibly traumatic life changing events these last 6-7 weeks - almost beyond comprehension. And to see photos of the part of LE that's now one featureless lava field and to know what it looked like just a couple of months ago - tragic beyond description.

Someone ("Santoury"?) earlier asked "why live here" and Mike gave a very good answer. Incidentally, the same ("why live in a certain place?") can of course also be asked of everyone who lives in Florida, or along the Gulf Coast, where your entire neighborhood can be wiped out by a hurricane in a fraction of a second, or in California - remember the fire in Oakland that destroyed 3,000 homes? Anyone question the sanity of people who decide to live in California?  . ANYWAY - I have lived in Leilani Estates for 23 years now (well, it'll be 23 in September this year). I decided on LE way back then because I loved everything about this peaceful, orderly, serene and beautiful area of the Big Island. Sure, I knew it was in Zone 1, and I had strongly considered buying land up on the Hamakua coast, north of Hilo, but in the end I decided it was worth taking the "risk" - which I deemed to be totally acceptable. Statistically it was calculated at about 4% likelihood that something like the current event would occur in my lifetime. OK, so the 4% actually DID happen. I am fine with that in the sense that I don't regret a thing about my decision. I had the opportunity to design and plant a five acre palm garden and I have enjoyed living in one of the most beautiful places I can think of with wonderful neighbors and friends during these 23 years. Totally priceless and I value it all. No matter what happens, this can't be taken away from me. Sure, I would love for the current eruption to stop so I can live in my house again. That may or may not happen and I am prepared for whatever comes next. Bottom line - I'd rather take my chances and live my dream than play it "safe". And I intend to continue along that path for as long as I live.

[WestCoastGal]

@bgl, thanks for the comments on the house and owners. I remembered you mentioned a woman owner and thought maybe she had a younger man! Anyway sounds like he enjoyed all the palms that were there and just tough seeing them all gone like that. 

So question for you, and I ask because Buzzy in the video just posted above the Moku one, said they were going to try to move the house. Actually heard someone else say they wanted to move a house, maybe it was Ryan or Gabe during the videos of the house they were helping a friend evacuate just the other day. Not 100% sure what Buzzy or the guys might have meant (maybe contents of) but do you think some of the houses there could be literally picked up and moved at some point if they are still standing and in good shape? I've seen a few homes actually moved by truck and think you may have said your home was on some type of concrete pillar posts or something like that. So thinking maybe in some case it might be doable. Navigating the roads would be something else. Seems such as shame to have perfectly good homes that are unlivable especially when housing is in short supply there.

Bo, also check out the post I made about a F10 update. Believe you know that property too.

[bgl]

Definitely doable, assuming the house is structurally sound and intact. I may have mentioned this earlier: back in July of 1990 I was visiting Kalapana, which at that time was threatened by the lavaflow that ended up taking about 185 homes there later that year, and also filled up the Kaimu Bay with lava. What I saw then, during that visit, was lots of big trailer trucks that were in the process of moving many of the houses out of the area. There are two different ways of building houses here; on a slab or on post-and-pier (at least several feet above the ground). I am guessing that, generally speaking, post-and-pier houses can be more easily moved than a house that sits on a concrete slab.

[WestCoastGal]

Check out what these tourist on Shane's lava boat tour got to see in addition to the lava at the ocean edge...2 min. in near the end...and it's not lavabergs this time.

 

[WestCoastGal]

In addition to the previous post with the update from Ryan Finlay on Fissure 10, he just posted this video from the property (Pomaikai and Malama). A week or so ago Ikaika was down here with his friend after the homeowner asked him to look at the cracks and give her his opinion of what was going on (recall video from there, previously posted in this thread). The cracks have really widened since that video.

 

[WestCoastGal]

In the news:

Mauna Loa downgraded in volcano alert levels.

http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/06/21/new-volcanic-activity-notice-mauna-loa-alert-level-downgraded/

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Woman arrested in LE for unlawfully taking up residence in an unfinished house under construction on Alapai Street. https://www.khon2.com/news/local-news/woman-arrested-for-violating-lava-restrictions/1254349996

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Yep, it was an albizia tree being removed that fell the wrong way and took out power. http://www.hawaiitribune-herald.com/2018/06/21/hawaii-news/power-mostly-restored-after-tree-falls-on-lines/

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[WestCoastGal]

Only 5:20 pm HST (8:20pm PDT) and here's the view from the Civil Beat cam:

from 6:19pm HST (9:19pm PDT):

[WestCoastGal]

This must be the day to revisit places. Okay just ran into this fb post from Nicolette Douvris with 2 videos and 29 photos including Moku Street and the palm house and the lava destroyed property. These photos were taken on Monday 6/18 so you can compare them to the ones in the YT eye-opening house tour video from May 23 shared a few posts above. BTW noticed a few familiar faces that got into LE with the National Guard.

https://www.facebook.com/nicolette.douvris/posts/10155835310972462

[WestCoastGal]

Bo, well came upon this fb post by Mark Lewis who put up a video of the Pele's hair they encountered all over everything and them...While cutting a house in two to move!! He described it like this (fb video link below):

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10156161246739457&id=604724456

[WestCoastGal]

KHON2's report on Hawaii Volcano National Park, Jaggar Museum and the Observatory.

 

[WestCoastGal]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2029109953797744&set=pcb.1007604272738724&type=3&theater&ifg=1

[WestCoastGal]

This video of the lava channel from Ken Boyer in Leilani. EPA monitoring air quality in the midground.

https://www.facebook.com/K.BryanHI/videos/1981705111862567/

[WestCoastGal]

USGS Updates:

Alert issued on 6/21 @ 6:11pm HST (9:11pm PDT): https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/status.html   F6, 16/18 and 22 mentioned along with F8. Pele's hair falling from F8. Collapse in Halema'uma'u.

Photos, a few from today added. https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/multimedia_chronology.html

No Map update.

Must be raining at 8:25pm HST (11:25pm PDT). PGV cam of F8 and lava channel going to Kapoho.

[Dave-Vero]

The Los Angeles Times had roughly the same story as KHON.  Volcano House is now officially closed through July 13.  

I'm reminded of being held captive in the university infirmary after coming in from a field trip with a swollen arm from a field trip. Wasp sting.  My roommate, not terribly lucid, was telling of visiting a volcano and seeing birds flying overhead with some of their feathers catching fire. 

 

[Moose]

Gabe (YT H.I.S. Survival) posted this video an hour ago. of continued escapades in Leilani Estates. Reports the SO2 gas levels are very high in a close proximity to Fissure 8

 

 

Published on Jun 22, 2018

Sulfur Dioxide and rocks raining from the sky just another day in the jungle.

[Moose]

June 21, 2018 Kīlauea eruption update with Ikaika Marzo uploaded by   Philip Ong

 

[WestCoastGal]

Thanks for the link @Moose to Philip's talk. I looked for it last night but didn't see it and had to call it a night. I love his weekly talks. Will watch soon.

Just finished Gabe's video. Love that man. He is one a multitude of what I will call supermen of Leilani/Puna who I have seen go out and help their fellow neighbors many of whom I know they don't even know but they simply go along with a friend to help someone out. Having moved homes I think 3 times as an adult, it's no fun and to do it under these circumstances really no fun and stressful. I shared a video yesterday of the guys who were trying to move the "cut" house amidst Pele's hair and other difficulties. Just another example of Leilani/Puna supermen (and sometimes superwomen!). This in part is what I've come to know of the community of neighbors here and why one would want to live there. Times of trouble and nice to know you have neighbors and strangers who will help you out under the most trying times.