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What is your current yard temperature?


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Posted
  On 6/24/2024 at 10:43 PM, Palm Sundae said:

110 with 21% humidity. Feels like 113. Not like 118 or 120 but yes, I am complaining.

Still waiting on first monsoon rain. 🙃

Expand  

Squeaky wheel and all that...  Thunderstorm with a nice cloudburst!  Forecast changed to 1/2 to 1 inch, and off to a great start. LOLOL.

78 with 77% humidity and rising.

Posted

29.1C / 84F at 12:45pm here. ☀️

5F25B39D-AFFB-420B-8E62-2ED570EC4BA5.thumb.jpeg.60115105c794d326ac2d9b56a5d55a9b.jpeg

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Dry-summer Oceanic / Warm summer Med (Csb) - 9a

Average annual precipitation - 18.7 inches : Average annual sunshine hours - 1725

Posted

92F partly cloudy w/ some spitz-les, and humid after a reasonably stormy Monday night   ..Right on the evening of Dia De San Juan..   ..A very rare occurrence here in AZ.



Big question as we finish out June / start July,   ...can we keep the party going???

At the moment, watching a remnant MCV roll north through Cen. AZ, bringing some sprinkles/ perhaps a little renewed convection here and there  after last night's much welcomed rain and storms..


CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-Phoenix-truecolor-16_36Z-20240625_counties-ushw-usint-map_noBar-77-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.1ddf5f253fbea3e10a44f641897fd04a.gif


While Tucson and S.E. AZ got dumped on on and off over the weekend, persistent mid level cloud cover / and weak upper level steering flow around the nose of the 4 Corners High  kept the atmosphere overhead too stable for storms until finally breaking and allowing for better insolation / Upper level wind flow out of the east off the high country yesterday..

Maybe some sprinkles but don't think today will be active day ..part 2...  Day after a stormy one is usually pretty quiet since the atmosphere is overturned / over worked  and needs a day or two to recharge..


While not a dumping compared  to what Tucson has seen, ..at least we're on the board now..  Can we keep it going?

Maricopa Co.  rainfall totals:


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Rain Log.org rainfall totals ( combined totals since 6/ 20/ 24 )  ..Can clearly see where it dumped in Tucson / why they had some flooding the other day..  Can dump like this over the house any time it wants..

As is usual w/ Monsoon season rainfall.. Can get dumped on in one neighborhood, while barely seeing anything a mile or two away..


Screenshot2024-06-25at09-30-16Rainlog_org.thumb.png.9146c9381fa01ce72abf7f9442ae4b35.png

Screenshot2024-06-25at09-31-07Rainlog_org.thumb.png.67d4870bc923091a579bb835714e3e55.png


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Screenshot2024-06-25at09-35-52Rainlog_org.thumb.png.6ac7b20be8ec7108b5badf731edc1c5a.png


While there's been a slight pull back of optimistic rainfall totals thru July 10th from some GFS / ECMWF AI-FS runs,   ..i think the lack of confidence in those runs should ease since other thoughts on the longer term outlook continue to look optimistic..  AO position, 10 and 14 day outlooks, GEFS / GEPS, CFS weeklys.. All give the green light/ maintain wetter / more active thoughts..    For now at least.. 


Temps. looking hot  ..but not too bad for the 4th of July week either.. 

As usual this time of year, Sonoita / S. AZ. is the place to be if you like afternoon / evening rain + mild overnights this time of year.


Screenshot2024-06-25at09-47-28ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.d9a32a2f038680ef5c8e6007c3322693.png



Screenshot2024-06-25at09-46-30TucsonAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.70ad80af8addaa5e314c807631f3f6c6.png



Screenshot2024-06-25at09-47-01SonoitaAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.1fa429c9383942df59e02ead51eb0e23.png

Posted

After a storm-less, but extremely windy evening,  100F at 11:11AM on the way to another humid  108- 111F as storm activity takes a break for the next 36-72 hours across the state as June closes out..

If the forecasts that have been suggesting it hold, start of July could kick off with lotz' a fireworks and decent Monsoon Season rainfall  as another good surge of moisture out of Mexico,  4C High shifting back into a better position, to the northeast a little  ..instead of hanging out overhead / just to the south of Nogales over the next couple days  allows rain chances to ramp up again..

Despite the 4C High position suppressing storm chances outside the high country along the AZ / N.M state line, low level moisture ain't going anywhere however so despite the lull in storm activity over the next couple days,  stayin' hot, humid ..or steamy..   Tis' the season..


Screenshot2024-06-26at11-00-09ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.8bf97892ebd8bb35df42809ecce20b6e.png


We'll see how next week's set up looks later..

Posted

Gulf Breeze, Fl. 103F/ humidity 51%/dew point 81%= 128 degrees F.

  • Like 1

What you look for is what is looking

Posted

We had nearly 20mm of rain today and a top of 16C. So far no frost and the lowest min around 3C. There’s still a lot of winter left so nowhere close to being out of the woods yet, but even the long term forecast shows no real cold frosty weather likely. Here’s hoping. 

  • Like 2

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

Posted

A reasonably hot and steamy 107F at 1:43PM as we wait to see if some storms decide to fire over the E. Valley and just areas to our south later today before a nice ramp up in activity kicks in for  -at least-  the first half of the 4th of July week ahead..

Screenshot2024-06-28at13-35-57ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.b015b20eae445fc990db611b8bfee213.png

While a strong trough passing well to our north, and a portion of the 4C high setting up just to our south had worked together to try and scour out " ideal " moisture for storms,  It appears the high stayed just far enough east ( Over N. Sonora / W. Chiuahua / and S. New Mexico than on top of AZ  ) and the trough stayed  just far enough north to allow moisture to continue to waft north out of western Sonora over that last couple days ..enough so that storm chances were able to continue across southeastern AZ.

Despite some drier southwesterly flow from California, easy to see how moisture continues to filter north into the state on the current Tru Color Satellite view across the region, even if the overall flow at the mid/ upper levels is a bit drier across the state atm.

Sierra Madre Occidental starting to awaken as well..


CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-northmexico-truecolor-20_41Z-20240628_counties-usstrd-usint-map-glm_flash_noBar-79-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.64237ea765a180a55b146274094d846b.gif

Zooming in a little, the two circled areas may ( ..or are already yielding ) an uptick in activity this afternoon..

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Green is the most obvious / where storm chances are best for today / probably tomorrow ..ahead of the earlier forecasts which had kept a lid on activity, even down south,  until later Saturday night..

Light blue area, closer to home, was something noted both in the morning NWS forecast discussion, and picked up on by the 18Z radar / Lightning product from the AZ WRF forecast model..


Screenshot2024-06-28at13-27-08WRFRADAR.png.9f4e7c33bc16d1759b19bc3e7a5fd3a0.png

Screenshot2024-06-28at13-28-08WRFLightning.png.04e15ffbc5419eb65e2619c80ce6e890.png

Mid and upper level moisture was supposed to be completely scoured out / CIN ( = Convective IN -habition ) too strong north of Tucson to allow for any storm development near Phoenix for another 24 or so hours but it appears the passing trough may have nudged the 4C high a little further east a little sooner than was expected, allowing a quicker return of better moisture that may be capable of sparking a few isolated / scattered storms anywhere in the circled area..

If we don't see anything today,  better chances for storms should arrive by tomorrow night / Sunday as a bigger uptick in storm activity over Sonora proper starts sending deeper surges of moisture into the area.


While there is some back and forth on whether or not we'll see another subtle downturn in activity on or just after the 4th as a High Pressure center sitting off CA shifts into the Great Basin, if that's where it goes,   looking at the latest thoughts from the longer term forecast " suggestions "  it's looking like the overall trend for Monsoonal activity stays in the positive category across the state, varying a bit on a day to day level which is typical.. 

GEFS is still looking " healthy " rainfall-wise across the state / region thru Aug 1st as well..

*** Note too that parts of S. Cal are included in the current " leans above normal " tilt for the rainfall forecasts, at least for the 10 and 14 day forecasts..   

All forecasts thoughts taken with a healthy dash of Salt,  We'll see what happens..


Screenshot2024-06-28at13-05-43ClimatePredictionCenter-6to10DayOutlooks.png.9f6e49440084d93c3b8995ec98a5b3cd.png


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Screenshot2024-06-28at13-03-29ClimatePredictionCenter-Week3-4Outlook.png.1ba0d6443c1ff8bf677f9b836ab4e699.png
 

Posted

112 and 23% with dewpoint at 60.

Feels like 115. Modest chance of a small amount of rain (negligible) overnight. The rain Monday was just under a half inch and the yard has responded nicely.

Posted

 

  On 6/28/2024 at 9:43 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

Light blue area, closer to home, was something noted both in the morning NWS forecast discussion, and picked up on by the 18Z radar / Lightning product from the AZ WRF forecast model..

Expand  



So close...

Screenshot2024-06-28at18-28-38OpProductViewer.png.9524a70a144a71fe20347ed94b9d5b4a.png


..but stayed just far enough away..

Screenshot2024-06-28at20-57-44OpProductViewer.png.60f669e6ccf0ce3ed99631f6de8b1b62.png


Some excellent skies regardless as it passed on by..

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Plenty of moisture rolling across Western Sonora atm that will be headed north into AZ overnight  so, ..Maybe another try tomorrow..

...and / or on Sunday


91F at 10:37PM.

  • Like 1
Posted

A bright blue sunny sky heading for a top of 20c.

  • Like 1
Posted

A mainly clear n' steamy 101F at 11:01AM  on the final day of June awaiting what could be a busy afternoon / evening across a majority of the state.

While the current AZ- WRF runs are quite starved of significant storm activity today, majority of other current Wx modeling continues painting the picture of our first bigger " storm day " of the season,  complete w/ all the usual Monsoon fixings, inc. perhaps a nice dust storm / Haboob before any storms reach the valley, and potential Flash Flooding issues in / around Tucson, if not closer to home.




Before peering into the start of July,  a quick look at how various areas are doing so far precip. - wise.  Keep in mind ..it is only June..

Pattern setup so far has been a little odd thus with the overall rainfall favoring S.E AZ / Eastern AZ Mountains,  up into N.M. / CO. rather than more widespread north to south rainfall across AZ. 

No  " Rim / Mountains - to Deserts " - type storm setups yet either.   It is early though..



Overall, some impressive #'s already on the board in many areas..  Which could.... bode well for the actual  season. 

I say that only because, for most areas, AZ esp, majority of Monsoon Season rainfall falls in both July and August ..So, most areas are already well ahead of what would typically be seen by now.  

Will be interesting to see what is added to these totals by tomorrow morning, esp. across S. / S.E. AZ where they could see an additional 1.5" - 3" / 3+" of rain by midnight   ..if storm activity plays out as has been suggested today / over the past few days..


S./ S.E AZ:  Tucson, Nogales, and Sierra Vista well head of what is typical for June..  Safford is a bit behind the ball which is a bit unusual, despite being in a better area to pick up rainfall under the current pattern set up..


Screenshot2024-06-30at10-44-47Monsoon.png.cb0cab7e8ad42c2addcca00e54c7ad10.png

Looking over the data, going back to the late 1800's,  out of 8 years in which an 1" or more of rainfall has occurred before  July 1st, in Tucson,  2 years ended up being dry,  1, average  ..and 5 ended up wetter than average.



S. Central AZ: Since Globe doesn't have records going back all that far, hard to gauge what their wetter start could mean for the season overall.. 

Looking at PHX, the June average is only .02" ..so w/ only receiving .01" so far, we really aren't behind the ball -yet-


Screenshot2024-06-30at10-45-21Monsoon.png.7d174478e7f30f6a7daacf740ee4e090.png

Mixed bag on what receiving more rain in June could mean for the season here.. Many years w/ decent June rainfall seem to lean drier ..or at least within the ballpark of average..   We'll see what is  ..or isn't..   added tonight..




Nor. AZ: Nice to see Flagstaff already ahead of the game.. We'll see what might get added on this evening / before 12AM.

A few decent storms have rolled into Kingman thus far but i guess they have missed their airport.


Screenshot2024-06-30at10-45-50Monsoon.png.0ff794b886335c7681d3e4d8ff42c3a7.png

 Out of the 9 years Flag has received above normal rainfall in June < above 1-00" - 1.10" ) , since their records started ( in the late 1800's )  2 ended drier, none ended average, and 7 ended wetter.



ABQ: At 1.99" currently, compared to a June average of only .38", Albuquerque is already well ahead for the season.. ** No graph unfortunately..

Out of 10 years where 1 / 1+" of rainfall was recorded, before July first, 2 ended up drier, 8 ended up wetter.. None average.

So, while we're awaiting getting something decent on the board locally, overall, not a bad start to Monsoon Season '24.. 

We'll see if we can keep things going as July arrives..

...More later....

Posted
  On 6/30/2024 at 6:56 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

We'll see what is  ..or isn't..   added tonight..

Expand  

 

  On 6/30/2024 at 6:56 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

...More later....

Expand  

 Wanna see the perfect,  busted forecast?  One look at the COD  Mosaic radar  ( 48 frames ) says it all.. Tucson, most of S.E. AZ, and 96% of the valley got nada..  Not sure what the heck happened w/ the set up today but think an MCV that got stuck over Yuma thru the day, instead of lifting well north of the area as it had been forecast to played a part.

- my gut punch only -


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I'm sure the NWS offices are really gonna be scratching their heads..


...Then there's dear ol Kevo.. Yea, the " Threaten the NWS,  get the FBI on ya' doorstep "  guy..   Google it..

Shocked he hasn't taken down all his posts from earlier ( Done so in the past when they busted badly ). 

The last two were posted as storms were falling apart as it was trying to roll north out of Tucson / out of the mountains. 😂


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I see he's gone MIA on FB since what tiny amount of rain passed through 98% of the area has gone away and all are wondering what the heck happened to his rock em' sock em' forecast  ...again...

Was doing some " Follow me live "  thing as the "  life threatening  " sprinkles and breezes   rolled in..

Remember folks,  sprinkles,  are life threatening.. 🙃

  Btw,  got just enough " rain "  to wet a patch or two of Cement on the driveway ..for 5 mins.  Whoo Hoo!  

FYI,  Texas ..Houston and Dallas specifically,   MR. Raiden Storm /  " Follow me because your life will depend on it "  may be rolling into your towns to take on your local NWS ( and FBI ) offices 🙃 🤣  :floor:   ...Enjoy his unique brand of ...interesting...

I may also be one of a dozen mere amateur weather nut in the forest of 'em, ...but at least i aint afraid to admit when a forecasts busts like a poorly constructed March Madness Bracket. 
...LOL...




...We'll see what tomorrow brings  ..if it brings anything.  Beyond another hot AZ afternoon :greenthumb:

Posted

A steamy 105F at 2:38PM w/ some pop up storms around..  Will any " pop up " over the house / side of town this afternoon / evening?  we'll see..  Certainly looks ideal out ( Minimal cloud cover this morning that thinned out pretty quickly / lots of Cumulus development thru the rest of the morning ...suggesting some deg. of instability around..

Hopefully we'll get something, ..but, no worries if not..  Can't control what Mo' Nature decides to do anyway..


Screenshot2024-07-01at13-49-30ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.1ef41cc804f673be1dcb58c93ae978eb.png

Aside from today's rain chance, maybe one more  before this episode of monsoonal activity takes a break across the state and things heat up mid to late week  as a strong area of High Pressure migrates east off the Pacific and sets up over CA / W' rn side of the Great Basin from about Wednesday thru -at least- Sunday, completely shutting off the moisture tap here, and setting up a Sizzlin' 4th of July / 4th of July weekend for CA, W' rn Nevada, and Oregon.  anticipate the current " Excessive Heat Warnings " painted across CA will expand into AZ by tomorrow / Wednesday -at the latest-

Screenshot2024-07-01at14-43-10NationalWeatherService.png.6ba481130232d6583607ba529f8c0d4a.png

Playing around w/ the local " point - n'- click " forecasts a little, even " on the beach " places like Santa Cruz, Monterey, Santa Barbara, on down to San Diego should see some nice " Beach weather " ahead while areas further inland see several days of highs in the 100- low 100-teens..

While both outlooks look hot, For the moment, it looks like the worst of the upcoming heat wave may shift further north and east after Sunday ..re-opening the door to the next round of Monsoonal activity locally  -hopefully..


Screenshot2024-07-01at14-47-57ClimatePredictionCenter-6to10DayOutlooks.png.493043e3e358bbd89d5f33c7ebdcc74e.png


Screenshot2024-07-01at14-48-11ClimatePredictionCenter-8to14DayOutlooks.png.1ce256c5bebf2c83a4457d2936dfd4cb.png

For now, take the usual heat - related precautions, and keep the plants watered too..

We'll see if the still - favorable forecast for the AO, nice dip in the PNA suggested around the same time  yields some good storms later, or cancels each other's influence on the Wx pattern around mid - month.


Screenshot2024-07-01at13-42-16ao_gefs.sprd2.png(PNGImage12001400pixels).thumb.png.6c69f842ad673bd4cc94323f2ea4f5cb.png


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Welcome to July.......

 

  • Like 1
Posted

A cool 16c at the moment heading for a bright sunny top of 20c.

Posted

This summer is way different than last summer with highs in the normal 88 to 92 range and lows in the low to mid 70s. Last summer had highs a bit higher and lows much higher, but the time the temp sat at the low was short and the dewpoints were much higher with minimal cloud cover.  The morning started stifling then, but this year i get an hour of nice weather and the highs are not too bad in the shade. It may get warmer as summer goes on but a normal rainy season should keep it from being crazy hot i hope.

Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 2:57 AM, flplantguy said:

This summer is way different than last summer

Expand  

Much different ..though at this point, it's hot -here at least,  lol.. 

Could be a much different summer for CA.  Note the final paragraph from Daniel Swain in his latest blog post:  https://weatherwest.com/







A few end of June stats i forgot to add earlier:

Tucson: Their NWS actually tries to educate people with a monthly wrap up of how things went.. ( As if we need another reason to love Tucson, lol ) 

The Dew Point references are quite interesting considering how early ( and rare ) such high DP readings have been seen.

Screenshot2024-07-01at20-14-57NWSTucsonArizona.png.42f960dc4a8abc99878aff08739524c7.png



Only thing ..regarding last month..  from the Phoenix NWS..

Screenshot2024-07-01at20-16-34USNationalWeatherServicePhoenixArizonaPhoenixAZFacebook.png.cae2f0d5718468df01da79dcc9ad73b0.png

Surprised they did not mention this..

While Tucson can see a good bump in mid / late June as Monsoon Season kicks in, high DP readings are very uncommon up here this early in the season. Definitely feels more like mid - July than the start of the month..

Screenshot2024-07-01at22-18-00Monsoon.png.4a921420069c2eb03af67e191be70c11.png


 Besides Tucson and many areas in S.E. AZ,  Flagstaff and ABQ already off to a great start rainfall- wise this summer as well..  We'll join the party soon ...hopefully, lol.

ABQ: 

Screenshot2024-07-01at21-55-26Monsoon.png.44add3e4cc419b6013012162d87070c3.png

@SailorBold and @jwitt  Hope you're enjoying the rain / not getting caught in the recent flooding.. 

@Desert DAC How are things looking in Las Cruces thus far? ..Seemed like you've been seeing some activity down there also over the last week or so?

@Southwesternsol Any good rains up your way yet?


Flagstaff:

Screenshot2024-07-01at21-55-49Monsoon.png.2b8c19f5c7271fa05a553800ad7bfcdb.png

  • Like 4
Posted

Definitely a good monsoon early start. 4 days of good rainIMG_20240627_170023_MP.thumb.jpg.2ea03ebe1e6616253c4638cb095769f2.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
Posted

Looking good here.. the Westside has received more rain than the airport this go-around.. Definitely not "normal" weather with the humidity/mugginess.. all this is coming from the south..

June summary from my weather station. about a week of 100f+... and 3.06" rain..

They did state on the news that we will have a pattern change after the 4th.. which I'm assuming means it's going to dry out..

  • Upvote 1

wxBanner?bannertype=wu_clean2day_cond&pw

Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 11:59 AM, jwitt said:

Definitely a good monsoon early start. 4 days of good rainIMG_20240627_170023_MP.thumb.jpg.2ea03ebe1e6616253c4638cb095769f2.jpg

Expand  

Nice lookin trachy!

wxBanner?bannertype=wu_clean2day_cond&pw

Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 12:45 PM, SailorBold said:

Nice lookin trachy!

Expand  

Thanks! Loves the moisture!

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 12:43 PM, SailorBold said:

Looking good here.. the Westside has received more rain than the airport this go-around.. Definitely not "normal" weather with the humidity/mugginess.. all this is coming from the south..

June summary from my weather station. about a week of 100f+... and 3.06" rain..

They did state on the news that we will have a pattern change after the 4th.. which I'm assuming means it's going to dry out..

Expand  

Yep, ..more so out this way ..but yes,  dries out region - wide for about a week before a more typical monsoon setup should get going

..Normal / more typical = chicken scratch #2 where the 4 corners High is set up more to our north rather than the weird, sprawled out east to west over S / Cen. TX position it has been in so far ( #1 ) , ...which is part of the reason you guys ( and gals ) have been seeing so much rain thus far.

#1: Sprawled out Subtrop. / 4 Corners High set up:  Weak S.E' rly winds ( Green arrows ) / more dominant southwesterly winds  ( yellow arrows ) over AZ, keeping the best rainfall potential across east AZ, N.M. and nearby areas of CO, OK, etc..

map1.thumb.jpg.7d4a522bd1152d12ebf2a60868f45a84.jpg


#2:  More " Typical " 4 corners high set up:  Dry, Southwesterly wind influence confined to far N. Cal. / the Pac. N.W.  Better S / S.E' rlys around the bottom of the High = Good rain opportunities for both N.M and AZ / Cen. Plains dry out somewhat  ..depending on how strong the high is / exactly where it sets up of course.

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..Is what the forecasts are saying right now at least. That said, potential for more rain hangs over at least some portion of N.M. during this " break "  

We'll see what actually happens.

  • Like 1
Posted

Well it’s -1.3C/29F here and potentially still dipping for the next hour or 2 until sunrise. Wouldn’t want to get much colder or I’d expect serious damage. I’ve got solid ice settling on fronds and it looks like some are already sulking. 

  • Like 2

Tim Brisbane

Patterson Lakes, bayside Melbourne, Australia

Rarely Frost

2005 Minimum: 2.6C,  Maximum: 44C

2005 Average: 17.2C, warmest on record.

Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 7:23 PM, tim_brissy_13 said:

Well it’s -1.3C/29F here and potentially still dipping for the next hour or 2 until sunrise. Wouldn’t want to get much colder or I’d expect serious damage. I’ve got solid ice settling on fronds and it looks like some are already sulking. 

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No, no, no.
I saw the forecast for Melbourne yesterday and thought of you. You don’t often see a 0C min forecast for Melbourne. Are you far from the bay? I hope your garden fairs well, but it’s scary getting up in the night with a head torch and seeing everything sparkling like a picture of the universe from the latest space telescope. Beautiful and scary. 

We are now in the statistically coldest part of the year for my area. The first two weeks of July are the bleakest. Been skirting the single digits sometimes getting below 5C. This so far is warmer than last winter. Still I hate seeing a high drift in from the Southern Ocean park itself over us, then the winds drop out and the sky clears. I pray for clouds at night this time of year. Last night we had few clouds and we got down around 6C. 

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 10:51 PM, Tyrone said:

No, no, no.
I saw the forecast for Melbourne yesterday and thought of you. You don’t often see a 0C min forecast for Melbourne. Are you far from the bay? I hope your garden fairs well, but it’s scary getting up in the night with a head torch and seeing everything sparkling like a picture of the universe from the latest space telescope. Beautiful and scary. 

We are now in the statistically coldest part of the year for my area. The first two weeks of July are the bleakest. Been skirting the single digits sometimes getting below 5C. This so far is warmer than last winter. Still I hate seeing a high drift in from the Southern Ocean park itself over us, then the winds drop out and the sky clears. I pray for clouds at night this time of year. Last night we had few clouds and we got down around 6C. 

Expand  

Yeah 0C forecasts are almost unheard of. The Melbourne weather station only bottomed out at 1C, but it’s always colder in the suburbs. I’m not far from the bay, maybe only 2-3km but I’m in a bit of a weird spot in the south east suburbs where cold air on still nights settles from the Dandenongs and chills the bayside suburbs. Mt Dandenong itself only dipped to 3C at 500m altitude, crazy that the bayside suburbs are more than 4C colder. The coldest recorded coastal temperature on the Australian mainland was in Aspendale, only 3 suburbs south of me. My closest weather station, Moorabbin Airport, is only 1km from me and has a history of much lower minimums than the centre of the city. 
 

-1.3C turned out to the minimum with about 4-5 hours below freezing, basically the same as our min 2 years ago. I think in isolation everything will survive this ok, but it’s the next week that worries me. Repeated forecast mins from 1-4C so risk of frost basically every night. That’s where I’ve found the risk of crown rot comes in; tropical species just can’t cope with near freezing temperatures repeatedly. Last year got down to right on freezing, but it will be the first proper test of some palms I planted a couple of years ago like Bentinckia condapanna, Hyophorbe indica and Pritchardia martii. 

Tim Brisbane

Patterson Lakes, bayside Melbourne, Australia

Rarely Frost

2005 Minimum: 2.6C,  Maximum: 44C

2005 Average: 17.2C, warmest on record.

Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 4:13 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

Yep, ..more so out this way ..but yes,  dries out region - wide for about a week before a more typical monsoon setup should get going

..Normal / more typical = chicken scratch #2 where the 4 corners High is set up more to our north rather than the weird, sprawled out east to west over S / Cen. TX position it has been in so far ( #1 ) , ...which is part of the reason you guys ( and gals ) have been seeing so much rain thus far.

#1: Sprawled out Subtrop. / 4 Corners High set up:  Weak S.E' rly winds ( Green arrows ) / more dominant southwesterly winds  ( yellow arrows ) over AZ, keeping the best rainfall potential across east AZ, N.M. and nearby areas of CO, OK, etc..

map1.thumb.jpg.7d4a522bd1152d12ebf2a60868f45a84.jpg


#2:  More " Typical " 4 corners high set up:  Dry, Southwesterly wind influence confined to far N. Cal. / the Pac. N.W.  Better S / S.E' rlys around the bottom of the High = Good rain opportunities for both N.M and AZ / Cen. Plains dry out somewhat  ..depending on how strong the high is / exactly where it sets up of course.

map2.thumb.jpg.764545764f0f9f29088c7291150d27c7.jpg

..Is what the forecasts are saying right now at least. That said, potential for more rain hangs over at least some portion of N.M. during this " break "  

We'll see what actually happens.

Expand  

Damage...  :( :(

https://www.krqe.com/video/massive-joshua-tree-in-rio-rancho-destroyed-in-saturdays-storm/9835493/

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Posted
  On 7/3/2024 at 4:30 AM, SailorBold said:
Expand  

That's pretty crazy..  Aside from the obvious ..wet soil / high winds of late,  Wonder why it came down.  Hopefully he can start a few of the branches,  and enough of his neighbors come take / try and start the rest.

Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 11:33 PM, tim_brissy_13 said:

Yeah 0C forecasts are almost unheard of. The Melbourne weather station only bottomed out at 1C, but it’s always colder in the suburbs. I’m not far from the bay, maybe only 2-3km but I’m in a bit of a weird spot in the south east suburbs where cold air on still nights settles from the Dandenongs and chills the bayside suburbs. Mt Dandenong itself only dipped to 3C at 500m altitude, crazy that the bayside suburbs are more than 4C colder. The coldest recorded coastal temperature on the Australian mainland was in Aspendale, only 3 suburbs south of me. My closest weather station, Moorabbin Airport, is only 1km from me and has a history of much lower minimums than the centre of the city. 
 

-1.3C turned out to the minimum with about 4-5 hours below freezing, basically the same as our min 2 years ago. I think in isolation everything will survive this ok, but it’s the next week that worries me. Repeated forecast mins from 1-4C so risk of frost basically every night. That’s where I’ve found the risk of crown rot comes in; tropical species just can’t cope with near freezing temperatures repeatedly. Last year got down to right on freezing, but it will be the first proper test of some palms I planted a couple of years ago like Bentinckia condapanna, Hyophorbe indica and Pritchardia martii. 

Expand  

I can relate to those temps. That’s why I’m planting canopy and more and more canopy, as well as shelter belts that deflect cold air drainage to somewhere else. 

  • Like 2

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

Posted
  On 7/3/2024 at 8:47 AM, Tyrone said:

I can relate to those temps. That’s why I’m planting canopy and more and more canopy, as well as shelter belts that deflect cold air drainage to somewhere else. 

Expand  

That intense high is meant to drift over here next week with some models predicting 1046 HPa which is about the all time record for the county, so far the position of the high centered over the South Island means will be spared anything extreme here, I hope that does not change. 0 forecast for tonight and -1C tomorrow which is nothing major, this should actually be worse than when under the monster high next week if things go as expected.

  • Like 1
Posted
  On 7/3/2024 at 12:22 PM, jwitt said:

Was a whopper too! Nice Sonoran blue form too! Pic from 2019 I believe. 20180305_120030.thumb.jpg.de6cc66e10b698cb3aeef91f48ea6e13.jpg

Expand  

👍👍👍... nice on the id..  years back I was trying to id these thinking they weren't the standard breviola..and a different yucca species altogether.. they look so different... there are more of these around here at least..

  • Like 1

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Posted
  On 7/3/2024 at 2:23 PM, SailorBold said:

👍👍👍... nice on the id..  years back I was trying to id these thinking they weren't the standard breviola..and a different yucca species altogether.. they look so different... there are more of these around here at least..

Expand  

They grow in the Sonoran desert between Wickenberg-Wikieup.  Blue and a bit compacted.

Not sure the exact name or subspecies.  But Sonoran blue is my take.

  • Like 1
Posted

0.4C/33F for me this morning. Not quite as bad as yesterday. No solid ice on fronds but still frost over all the grass. Potentially more frost to come later this week. 

Tim Brisbane

Patterson Lakes, bayside Melbourne, Australia

Rarely Frost

2005 Minimum: 2.6C,  Maximum: 44C

2005 Average: 17.2C, warmest on record.

Posted
  On 7/2/2024 at 5:25 AM, Silas_Sancona said:


@Southwesternsol Any good rains up your way yet?

 

Expand  

Yeah, normally June is our driest month, with the monsoons not coming until late July or early August. Alberto brought a couple of inches of rain up here throughout the month

  • Like 2
  • Upvote 1
Posted

Yucca Brevifolia.. sorry my mistake..

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Posted

Eventually dropped down to 0.0C/32F this morning here in the south east of Melbourne. Pretty icy again and more to come. 

  • Like 1

Tim Brisbane

Patterson Lakes, bayside Melbourne, Australia

Rarely Frost

2005 Minimum: 2.6C,  Maximum: 44C

2005 Average: 17.2C, warmest on record.

Posted
  On 7/3/2024 at 11:11 AM, cbmnz said:

That intense high is meant to drift over here next week with some models predicting 1046 HPa which is about the all time record for the county, so far the position of the high centered over the South Island means will be spared anything extreme here, I hope that does not change. 0 forecast for tonight and -1C tomorrow which is nothing major, this should actually be worse than when under the monster high next week if things go as expected.

Expand  

Hopefully you get some cloud with those pressures. I’ve heard it described once as anti cyclonic gloom. With cloud cover you will be safe.

Last night we had pressures around 1035hPa but we even got a bit of rain at times which is strange for such high pressures. At times I could see the stars clearly though which did worry me. The result was nothing below about 8C. I think the next few days is much the same before another low kicks the high eastwards. 

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

Posted
  On 7/3/2024 at 9:57 PM, tim_brissy_13 said:

Eventually dropped down to 0.0C/32F this morning here in the south east of Melbourne. Pretty icy again and more to come. 

Expand  

That’s not sounding good. Hopefully you get a bit of night cloud cover soon. 

Millbrook, "Kinjarling" Noongar word meaning "Place of Rain", Rainbow Coast, Western Australia 35S. Warm temperate. Csb Koeppen Climate classification. Cool nights all year round.

 

 

Posted

110F at 4:43PM after reaching 112F  under clear skies and a dry breeze..

Plenty of heat across the Bay area / Central Valley in CA as well..  At one point this afternoon, a couple neighborhood stations back in my old neighborhood out there were only a few deg. cooler than here ( 107 in Los Gatos vs. 111 Here at the same time )

Still numerous 104+ readings across that part of San Jose at 5:13PM < Still 110 locally >

Screenshot2024-07-03at17-13-23LosGatosCAWeatherConditionsWeatherUnderground.png.21b1a9a4ca23fb0240cefdadfc8c1035.png

Some #'s from both areas between the 3:45 and 4PM timeframe.. Excessive Heat ain't going anywhere for the next week..

  While we're accustomed to this kind of heat, hot overnight lows included,  a different story in the typically milder parts of CA (  Bay Area specifically ) where lows may not drop out of the mid -80s in the thermal belt areas / below the upper 60s / low 70s in the hotter south and east bay communities until at least Friday or Saturday. Excessive Heat Warning products may last longer out there ( ..currently hoisted thru July 10th ) than here ( ...thru the 9th here ) 

Keeping an eye out for any record lows that might be broken out there over the next several days.. 


Locally:

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-56-40ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.6a3c187d444f937a0e747a7c38d8c8f8.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-56-52ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.6b9a11ebbbe21c37c97af410403c2e61.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-57-03ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.ce27f0fa30d579e2b4ae631ef675a737.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-57-24ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.76e715ec21e187b95f81a8f6b8a8b859.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-57-59ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.d47b66f033973889c6b7edcb69491747.png


Screenshot2024-07-03at15-58-08ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.9789435c8c7b7f58513b546f2afd6be3.png


Tucson and the Central Borderlands:

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-58-53ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.13943969e8a58adf01f8077dfe1db492.png


Screenshot2024-07-03at15-59-03ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.59307aee9b70e41d3ed5eb7d7db8a3a0.png


Screenshot2024-07-03at15-59-17ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.6d4131c23065b0f70c5dab048ac8bd68.png

Some storms lingering across parts of the Borderlands that helped keep temps. reasonable down there.

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-59-42ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.8b6777336ada31ca26d315df3b4decec.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-59-51ChandlerAZ10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.d7c15215b7ffc81c9127fc82e3b087dc.png

Bay Area..

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-50-57LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.3bdc2c0f2b2472ce1c48a50d00b5e1a1.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-50-26LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.a24d4311e1d7a168d211066364c36b81.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-51-41LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.5c708819ae70104ac9dba5fb0e81fbed.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-51-51LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.7eb7a383961243f43f24e76fcf675cfb.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-52-19LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.e3247da65a9693841016d203a4086895.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-55-15LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.75ddc36c8681a412c251e68d575400aa.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-52-36LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.0ae9b6c86dadd3ddf1028546c1ea673b.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-53-00LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.e0df892468e759e584e5d3eab59756e0.png

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-55-51LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.38fb27f6a0f910093dcd63c551b62398.png


Fresno:

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-53-23LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.1c01964bc67a7bbbf4321b7f265789ed.png

Stockton / Modesto:

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-54-15LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.b6e49af6058d234a6dc823dfbd1e2a77.png

Sacramento area:

Screenshot2024-07-03at15-53-50LosGatosCA10-DayWeatherForecastWeatherUnderground.png.dfc8241c40ee1a015087c1276d141f23.png
 

Stay cool everyone..

Posted
  On 7/3/2024 at 5:56 PM, jwitt said:

They grow in the Sonoran desert between Wickenberg-Wikieup.  Blue and a bit compacted.

Not sure the exact name or subspecies.  But Sonoran blue is my take.

Expand  

One of these two.. 

Screenshot2024-07-03at20-00-15JoshuaTreePoppy(Eschscholziaandrouxii).thumb.png.3a37438ad64e26f49d3850da28c72c3a.png


Any others thrown around, like this one,  aren't recognized / accepted by experts.

Screenshot2024-07-03at20-06-39Yuccabrevifoliavar.herbertii(J.M.Webber)MunzThePlantList.thumb.png.bcdf6fffe4f38e82ffbe536a1fd696c2.png

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