What is your current yard temperature?

[UK_Palms]

On 8/1/2023 at 9:57 AM, sandgroper said:

Ended up 25c today, warmer than London! The rain is coming back in tomorrow though for a couple of days, up to 20mm according to BOM.

More or less the same in London with a max of 24.5C / 76F at Heathrow that day you mentioned.

 

The past few weeks have ben absolute crap though, by several different metrics. For me here, it has to be the worst July overall in at least 16 years since 2007. It's certainly debatable whether this one is worse than in 2007, so I'll start...

• Dullest/cloudiest July for London in 45 years, since 1978. Parts of central Wales had their dullest/cloudiest July ever on record going back 100 years in some places.

 

• Lowest average July max for London in 11 years, since 2012.

 

• Also lowest absolute July max in London for 16 years, since 2007.

 

• First time in 53 years that June turned out to be warmer than July, since 1970. This July was 0.9C colder than this June going by the monthly CET.

 

It has been exceptionally wet in Ireland and northern England as well with places recording their wettest July on record. It has been fairly wet here too, but nowhere near that bad.

 

August has started off real bad too as the poor spell continues with the lowest mean pressure ever recorded for August in parts of the UK... that is shocking too and shows how abnormal the past 3-4 weeks have been. Today has consequently been cool, wet, cloudy and windy. Crap weather still.

 

Signs of an improvement as we head towards mid-August. Certainly drier and sunnier.

 

hPa temps. One ECMWF run has the 25C isotherm coming up into southern England.

Edited August 3, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Silas_Sancona]

A toasty, but reasonable 108F at 6:30PM as we start the first weekend of the final month of Meteorological Summer..

As advertised, Heat is the theme to kick things off, though ..For the moment, Tomorrow looks to be the worst of the next several days. ..until  next  Sunday at least,   ...if   the forecast that far out stays the same as it looks now..



While it stays hot, rain chances may not remain as removed from the forecast picture previously thought.. GFS and AZ WRF models have been picking up on -at least- a modest increase in moisture returning to the state ( far S. AZ / Mountains, first ) starting on Sunday or Monday ..and lasting through -at least- Thursday.   Some current forecast thoughts keep moisture around longer,  before a break near the 15th, ..followed by another increase afterwards.   We'll see..


Gulf of CA continues to look good with 30-31C SST temps now fully filling in the N. Gulf, and 31 - near shore 31C+ gaining ground the far N. Gulf.   While it isn't easily noted here, the cold pool that has lingered off CA and Baja has been warming -by quite a bit in some cases- over the last few weeks..



If we can get the 4cor. High to shift off to the east, instead of being anchored right over head.  ..and settle in there for the rest of the season, ( ..Or shift north into the Great Basin / PAC. N.W. ) thus opening up unrestricted flow north from the Gulf,  plus some easterly wave activity,  and/ or robust moisture pushes from passing tropical systems,  we'll be in business as far as playing catch up w/ the rain..  🤞




A Better look of the above mentioned warming off CA and Baja via SOTO's ( State Of The Ocean ) SST Anomaly chart, as of yesterday's update.  Blob of really warm water west of the PAC. N.W. will be interesting to watch over the next couple months.  From SOTO's data, Gulf of CA looks warm too, though not over the top "warm"






 

[Palm Sundae]

On 7/20/2023 at 2:28 PM, Palm Sundae said:

The Ferocactus pilosus never gets any water, of course. I will be sorely tempted by the end of the month if there is still no sign of rain.

 

Welp... gonna give it a splash this weekend. The signs of stress are past what I like to see and it's as 'thin' as I have ever seen it.

No rain in sight and not enough for much of anything since forever. String of 110+ expected.

[Arecaceus]

The last few days have been getting less rainy without any further thunderstorms. Yesterday was actually quiet lovely throughout. Up until noon of today when after a sunny morning it suddenly started to pour all afternoon up into the evening. Today felt like October not August. A high of 23.0°C and a low of only 13.8°C this morning. This was the coldest morning this summer so far. From tomorrow onwards it's supposed to get sunnier and drier. 🌦️🤷‍♂️🌴

[sandgroper]

A beautiful winters day in Fremantle heading for 21c.

[Tyrone]

24C tomorrow is forecasted. Summer will be interesting this year. 

[sandgroper]

2 hours ago, Tyrone said:

24C tomorrow is forecasted. Summer will be interesting this year. 

I hope it's a cool summer I'm sick of the heat, that's why I left Exmouth.

[Silas_Sancona]

A hot ..but reasonable  { ..and humid.. } 108F at 1:37PM w some cloud candy passing overhead. Extra humidity today courtesy of  Tropical -something Eugene passing to the south of Cabo, initiating a full - length Gulf surge this morning. Probably a nice nudge from last nights monster MCC that rolled across N. central Sonora as well..

Thanks to that Gulf Surge ..and -at least a couple more suggested for the week, Temps look to stay in the hot but reasonable range thru at least Friday ..if the current forecast thoughts hold.



Maybe a few isolated storms today down by the AZ. / Mex. Border, before another, more robust G.S. deepens the moisture pool over AZ, leading to increased ..but not 100%  opportunities for showers/ storms at times this week across the state as the overall flow turns more southerly through -at least- Thursday..

After a little more westward wandering, Eugene  may make a quick turn to the North / Northeast and introduce  ..at the very least..  some good Cloud Candy conditions for S. Cal.  

Potential shower chances are not off the table mid/ late week out there either   ..depending where the bulk of any remnant moisture heads.    We'll see..

 As for Major Hurricane Dora  ..tha explorah..  She'll continue her detailed examination of the Ocean as she exits stage left,  into the Central Pacific..

  Should stay south of Hawaii, but, you never know.. Maybe she'll make a hasty deter to check out the islands on her trip.   At minimum, she'll probably stir up some swell for the islands as she passes to the west, under the islands.
 

[greysrigging]

Must be the easiest job in the world ( a BoM forecaster based in the Darwin Office in August )

Copy and paste, copy and paste day after day....haha

[Silas_Sancona]

A somewhat gross 106F at 1:19PM w/ a few clouds around..  Compared to earlier this morning, Dew point is currently sitting at " only " 60deg. / humidity at 22%.

We'll see how close any storms that pop down south get later..  Quiet otherwise.

[Palmensammler]

This morning it was really cold in my area. 11°C / 52°F. But the cold period with lots of rain and cold temps will hopefully end on Wednesday. 

Not what I expect for summer 🥶

[PalmatierMeg]

My front window thermometer (facing north under shade of an awning in the Caribbean Garden) registered 101.1F at 2:20. Holy hellfire!

[Silas_Sancona]

102F at 8:22PM w/ a dewy of 59Deg. / Humidity at 24%...

Will we get ~something~ later on tonight?  Will it be another late night chasing " Yard Bolts "?   ..We shall see.. 

Current COD True color view w/ CAPE layer added.. Carefully watching the 2K-4K j/Kg area moving northeast across Central S. AZ / into the Tucson area for the next few hours as outflow heads north into AZ  from the storm complex over N. Sonora as it progresses west / Northwest....  Will- it- be- enough- 🤔



While i understand the complex why and why nots.. It's always intrigued me that the Gulf of CA can generate so much CAPE, but no storms..  Water is quite toasty ..and humid.


 

[PalmatierMeg]

87.1F at 8:30 a.m. Gonna be a scorcher. The humidity is deadly

[Silas_Sancona]

75F at 6:51Am as one heck of a Bolt Crasher  heads east..  Dew point sits at 68deg / Humidity 70%..

You know a storm is good when it wakes you from a dead sleep at 5AM ..with the fan running on high. 

Worth the loud  wake up call..

[Silas_Sancona]

A little " Morning after a late night out " humor.. AKA: GFS  " Fantasy-land "  @JLM ..I think you can appreciate this 😁 ( Referring to The Model watching Meme i'd posted in the Atlantic Hurricane thread a few months ago ) 

..That said, as weird as everything weather-wise has been this year, ...could such a scenerio be??? .....so far - fetched???.. It is the time of year when tropical shenanigans can venture to L. A.

Skeptics : < Check your S. Cal Aug / Sept. / Oct. WX history >  

( Harshly whispers to myself :  ...." Mysteries " ).🤔













Suggested Fantasy  rainfall totals..




BTW, S. Cal,  It's perfectly fine if you don't want  any  of this.. Really, it is..  I'll happily use a little Jedi mind trickery to guide all of it into my back yard, hahaha.



....Time to edit pictures and video from the morning Javelin tosser / Road flooder.. ⛈️

[Silas_Sancona]

3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

75F at 6:51Am as one heck of a Bolt Crasher  heads east..  Dew point sits at 68deg / Humidity 70%..

You know a storm is good when it wakes you from a dead sleep at 5AM ..with the fan running on high. 

Worth the loud  wake up call..

Rainfall totals..

Once again,  NOTHING at Sky Harbor, ( ..The Magenta dot.. ...So the dry streak continues )  ...Or for the west side of town.  Barely anything for a majority of Mesa East of the 101 / North of the 60. 

Pretty good dumper here however.. ( Purple Circle ) Using the amount of runoff in the street / pooling out back in open ground areas during the height of this storm,  I'd bet i got just a touch more than the MCFCD gauge here at the house.

Orange circles = Boyce Thompson / Picketpost Mtn.,  and Oak Flat..


 

[96720]

@Silas_Sanconalucky you it’s a good thing the official gauge isn’t at my house I think I get less than sky harbor!!

[Silas_Sancona]

5 minutes ago, 96720 said:

@Silas_Sanconalucky you it’s a good thing the official gauge isn’t at my house I think I get less than sky harbor!!

Not that rainfall distribution across the valley isn't uneven every year, but, ...It's definitely been a head scratcher this year.. 

When monitoring the radar each time storms have been in the area, it looked like Sky Harbor ...and -at least-  a majority of South Mountain neighborhoods ..next to South Mountain,   were getting rain but,  i guess not?  ..which is a bummer.

Hopefully we can tweak things a bit and get a few good, wide-spread rains across the entire  valley  ..and soon,   ...rather than downpours being confined to only this side / west side,  or the north side of town. 

[JLM]

5 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

A little " Morning after a late night out " humor.. AKA: GFS  " Fantasy-land "  @JLM ..I think you can appreciate this 😁 ( Referring to The Model watching Meme i'd posted in the Atlantic Hurricane thread a few months ago ) 

..That said, as weird as everything weather-wise has been this year, ...could such a scenerio be??? .....so far - fetched???.. It is the time of year when tropical shenanigans can venture to L. A.

Skeptics : < Check your S. Cal Aug / Sept. / Oct. WX history >  

( Harshly whispers to myself :  ...." Mysteries " ).🤔













Suggested Fantasy  rainfall totals..




BTW, S. Cal,  It's perfectly fine if you don't want  any  of this.. Really, it is..  I'll happily use a little Jedi mind trickery to guide all of it into my back yard, hahaha.



....Time to edit pictures and video from the morning Javelin tosser / Road flooder.. ⛈️

That time of year i suppose....we arent even getting fantasy hurricanes on the GFS in the Atlantic right now with how much SAL and overall stability there is throughout the basin lol

[kinzyjr]

Currently reading 96F-97F throughout the yard at 5:35PM EST.  This is a cool off compared to MAX readings between 100F-102F on three different weather station brands on my lot.  NWS reported 97F on two observations at the airport today, so the MAX might have eclipsed 100F there too.  These temperatures with no real chance of a shower to cool things off = ☠️

[GottmitAlex]

[Palm Sundae]

21 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Not that rainfall distribution across the valley isn't uneven every year, but, ...It's definitely been a head scratcher this year.. 
 

 

Same. Radar shows we are getting rain but when I look out the window - nothing. Did get electrical activity and some moisture yesterday but the ground didn't stay wet very long.

Today and the next few days look like 'normal' temps with Saturday's high barely over 100. I intend to enjoy the relief.

[Silas_Sancona]

52 minutes ago, Palm Sundae said:

 

Same. Radar shows we are getting rain but when I look out the window - nothing. Did get electrical activity and some moisture yesterday but the ground didn't stay wet very long.

Today and the next few days look like 'normal' temps with Saturday's high barely over 100. I intend to enjoy the relief.

It looked like pretty much everyone in / near Casa Grande nd areas east and south of there were getting hammered yesterday afternoon, but you could see on radar that heavier pockets were much more confined to a few spots rather than spread evenly under the storm complex.  Same area of storms tried to work it's way up here but tapped out just north of ~ roughly ~ Sacaton.. Yesterday morning's storms here probably stabilized the atmosphere overhead just enough to keep afternoon activity out..

Strong west /southwest flow higher up didn't help encourage n-ward movement of storms either.



Definitely looking forward to Saturday ( ...A " frigid " 103-105F suggested here ) since it tries to get hot ( -er ) again next week, at least for a few days.. That said, can already see the end of the road for continuous temps over  110F is in sight.. 🤞

[Foxpalms]

Min of 58f/14.4c, max of 80f/26.6c with 42% humidity in London today. A massive improvement from the way below average temperatures. The max UV index was 7 today and we had plenty of sunshine hours.  The forecast doesn't look too bad, around average for Mid August now days. The rule for central London is to always add 2c to those forecasted lows because of the urban heat island effect. There are some very warm 850hpa temps next Friday just south of the UK (23c) so we will see if the Jetstream is able to push that airmass up, hopefully.  At the moment the 850hpa temp is 10c however around 6am it will be 16c so hopefully tonight's low should be fairly warm.

Edited August 9, 2023 by Foxpalms

[UK_Palms]

Currently 27.3C / 81F here at 1pm. The warmest it has been in a while. Yesterday’s max was 25.1C / 77F here, but overall this summer has truly been crap for me this year. Too little, too late now. Nowhere near good enough! Especially last month! July was wasted!

Recent summers have obviously set my expectations too high at this latitude, but summer 2023 still just hasn’t been good enough. Daytime highs have been too cool and nowhere near enough sun either. I just experienced my lowest daytime max on record for 8th August and it has also been the dullest first week of August on record too. This after a dreadful July as well. August hasn’t started much better. 5th - 8th August was just terrible!

 

Hopefully things will pick up now. Although look at the difference between now…

And this time last year… the 13th August will be 15C cooler this year! 🫣

 

At least the beefsteak tomatoes are finally coming, despite the lower temperatures and sunshine.

Edited August 10, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

Min of 62.6f/17c, max of 83.3f/28.5c with 45% humidity. The humidity was weird today as it kept going up and down as the wind kept switching from a humid south westerly coming straight from the tropics to coming from the south east which was drier. The max UV was 7. The latest gfs run is suggesting after this weekend the rest of the month will be warm and dry. Its also showing high pressure over the UK and low pressure to the west going all the way down to 25N off the coast of Morocco, which would mean we would be get an airmass sent up from Africa to us. The low pressure also stays there for multiple days in a row unlike on the 40c day last year. Yet again it also looks like the canary islands are having another heatwave with 43c/110f forecasted there with 31% humidity, which would be a 51c/124f feel like!

Edited August 10, 2023 by Foxpalms

[amh]

Currently 108F at around 3:30PM.  This has been my summer, there has been no rain since the first week of June. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A warm n' steamy wavering-between 98- 100 around Chandler atm with lots of Cloud Candy passing through..



Interesting weather set up as we head towards the end of the week / weekend locally, and across -at least Central and S. California..

Long explanation shortened,  Upper Level Low / remnants of Eugene will continue to offer up shower / storm chances for areas of CA from -roughly- Sacramento south.. This follows the surprise ..and decent ( For August ) rain and storms that rolled through Santa Barbara earlier this morning.  Quite possible Santa Barbara broke a daily rainfall record, ironic as that sounds..

Here are some totals from the county and nearby areas, and a zoomed in look at Santa Barbara itself.. In a couple cases, it looks like a few gauges recorded about as much ..or slightly more.. rainfall than numerous parts of the East Valley have here.   How weird is that?





A look at where that Upper Level low is located currently using COD Tue Color Satellite imagery. 



As it looks right now, moisture should continue it's trek north toward the Bay Area. Upper Level low ( Hanging over Point Conception currently ) stays near ..or just off the Coast ..maybe moving further west off the coast as it treks north.  

  While ( when checking ) there appear to be no shower / storm chances suggested there, having watched these patterns evolve many times across the state in the past ..i would not be surprised if isolated  storms / showers end up in the forecast  from -roughly- Sacramento south later..  Aug. - mid Oct. is prime " summer / fall Thunderstorm " season  for this area..  Even from seemingly weak Upper Level lows like this one. At the very least,  Sierras,  maybe the Northern Mountains  should see a few storms roaming around over the next few days..




..At the same time, the 4Cor. High looks to retreat east / southeast  a little more, opening up a distinctly southerly flow over AZ over the next few days.. If everything comes together as various WRF model runs had suggested at times, we may see better  ( ...though not perfect  ..for such a set up ) more widespread  rain / storm chances thru Sat. or Sunday..

COD True Color Satellite view of things across the state atm. Note the slug of mid level stuff working it's way north from Sonora, and storms starting to fire up over the Sierra Madre further south / east..  That plus whatever southerly flow exists between the high and upper level low / Eugene remnants should help initiate a good Gulf Surge, if it hasn't done so already..





Taking a peek into next week:  It appears the " heatwave " suggested for next week may not really take hold ..or could be more on the " minimal Impact " level than previously suggested..  At least as it appears right now.  Regardless,  it looks short-lived as things may get quite active later 

You'll recall the mention of a Fantasy Tropical " something " either paying S. Cal. a near-shore visit,  or offering up some decent summer rainfall chances  from a few days ago  ...Well,  ..for the moment, such longer tern potential is back on the model runs ( 06 and 12Z currently, we'll see what the 18z looks like soon )  ..Obviously,  a wait and see scenario,  and just a " Keep you're eyes on things"  kind of mention,  but,  likely hinting at a more active pattern ahead  -overall..  🤞

 

[Arecaceus]

This week the weather has been getting better and better. Rising temperatures and even clear blue skies the last couple of days. Today we're back in summer with a high of 32.5°C and a low of 14.6°C this morning. Forecast looks like it will stay that way. ☀️🌡️🥰🌴

Edited August 11, 2023 by Hortulanus

[Foxpalms]

Min of 66.5f/19c at 3am, however by sunrise the temperature was 68f/20c. Max of 79f/26c with 56% humidity. The max dewpoint was 65 and the UV index was 7. The gfs models are showing 33c for the 21st.

[Silas_Sancona]

An oddly comfortable, though slightly sweddy' when doin' stuff in the yard 104F at 2:42PM.. Forecast hovers around the same range tomorrow and Mon. ..before a little bump of a " heat wave " ( Skeptical it occurs at all )

Rest of next week?? If it follows today's thoughts?? ..Well,   ...We'll  see.  Some potentially interesting stuff   i won't go into -for now-   showing up on the GFS today that is at least worth keeping a casual 👀  on.. 




Need more time to see the plates of Spaghetti it is tossing around today sticks to anything..   Stay the course, for now..


On a side note,  ..and it sure looks as though it will come to pass,  ..If Sky Harbor sees NO rainfall between now and Midnight on Monday?   ...they will tie / break ( Note that there are no -remotely decent- rain chances forecast until ...at least Tuesday evening... currently forecast ) the record for the latest, first, Monsoon-driven rainfall recorded there. Current record is Aug. 14th, 1995. 

I guess in a Summer of non stop record smashing, this fits, 🤷‍♂️  lol.. 

 

[JLM]

100F with a heat index of 119F here, recorded at about 4:55 PM CDT. Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 7 PM, and again from 11 AM to 7 PM tomorrow. NWS talking Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings likely thru at least Tuesday. Highs look to be around 98F to 99F this week until Wednesday when we cool down into the mid 90's. 

Something of note here is that today is the 3rd time this summer that ive recorded a high of 100F, with the highest day being 100.9F. 

Looking at heat alerts, i had 15 Heat Advisories total (no Excessive Heat products) in the entirety of 2022. So far for 2023, ive had 24 Heat Advisories, 7 Excessive Heat Watches, and 4 Excessive Heat Warnings. It has certainly been a hot summer, more than normal. Excessive Heat Warnings are hard to come by in this part of the US.

[PalmatierMeg]

100.0F at 2:35 p.m.

[Silas_Sancona]

A mostly cloudy and muggy-ish 98F at just past noon..  Unless the sun breaks out within the next hour or two, a little skeptical we reach the suggested high for the day this afternoon..

Heating up ..a little.. as we head into the week, before some " chilly " weather arrived by the weekend ..if the forecast holds.  Still keeping an eye on -the thing, that might greatly increase rain chances here ..and in -at least- S. Cal around the same time..  Still some wavering,  so not gonna mention it ..for now.  If it holds, that 94F ( or lower ..Go lower, Please, lol ) for Sunday looks great.




Atm, Upper Level Low positioned ..somewhere.. between Santa Maria and the South Bay ( S.F. Bay Area ) looks to slide a bit further west offshore, before possible rotating back toward the central coast later this week..  May be quiet across most areas today,  but will be watching where the next slug of moisture, currently headed west / northwest overhead, heads later..

Btw, May look a little threatening out the window, but not a drop falling falling the clouds passing overhead..

Mid Day COD true view look across the region:




Saw numerous pictures and reports of excellent, cloud candy - filled Sunsets and raindrops from around various parts of the Bay Area / other parts of the Central Valley yesterday, and that may continue today -in some areas.  We'll see what occurs later.

Also hearing reports of 60deg SST  readings just offshore of the Bay Area..  Frigid to most, but a little mild to us Nor. Cal-ers.. 

With the pattern this week ( at least ) suggesting a marked slackening of N.W.'rly winds along the coast, i'd anticipate the wind- generated upwelling that had been keeping near shore SSTs cold all spring and summer to switch to warming a bit soon.. 

Current look at SST Anomaly data from SOTO ..This time w/ the " Anomaly " bar included. Biggest blob of 3C+ Anomolies still well offshore, ..but it won't take much southerly wind flow to bring SSTs along the beaches up a bit.

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

A mostly cloudy and muggy-ish 98F at just past noon..  Unless the sun breaks out within the next hour or two, a little skeptical we reach the suggested high for the day this afternoon..

Heating up ..a little.. as we head into the week, before some " chilly " weather arrived by the weekend ..if the forecast holds.  Still keeping an eye on -the thing, that might greatly increase rain chances here ..and in -at least- S. Cal around the same time..  Still some wavering,  so not gonna mention it ..for now.  If it holds, that 94F ( or lower ..Go lower, Please, lol ) for Sunday looks great.




Atm, Upper Level Low positioned ..somewhere.. between Santa Maria and the South Bay ( S.F. Bay Area ) looks to slide a bit further west offshore, before possible rotating back toward the central coast later this week..  May be quiet across most areas today,  but will be watching where the next slug of moisture, currently headed west / northwest overhead, heads later..

Btw, May look a little threatening out the window, but not a drop falling falling the clouds passing overhead..

Mid Day COD true view look across the region:




Saw numerous pictures and reports of excellent, cloud candy - filled Sunsets and raindrops from around various parts of the Bay Area / other parts of the Central Valley yesterday, and that may continue today -in some areas.  We'll see what occurs later.

Also hearing reports of 60deg SST  readings just offshore of the Bay Area..  Frigid to most, but a little mild to us Nor. Cal-ers.. 

With the pattern this week ( at least ) suggesting a marked slackening of N.W.'rly winds along the coast, i'd anticipate the wind- generated upwelling that had been keeping near shore SSTs cold all spring and summer to switch to warming a bit soon.. 

Current look at SST Anomaly data from SOTO ..This time w/ the " Anomaly " bar included. Biggest blob of 3C+ Anomolies still well offshore, ..but it won't take much southerly wind flow to bring SSTs along the beaches up a bit.

As thought... Never discount " On the ground " experience w/ these late Summer upper level low events, vs. forecast " suggestions "  in CA.  Could be an interesting rest of the afternoon / early evening for parts of the South Bay, esp. if the storms over San Benito Co. and N.E. Santa Clara Co. get going a bit stronger....




Oh yeah,  ..May not be the " only " summer rain event for CA this week either..  Giving it another 24 hours before i discuss why..

[Chester B]

Apparently we hit 106F/41C today. Tomorrow will be the third triple digit day this week. Surprisingly this was not accompanied by strong winds so was pretty enjoyable. 

[Arecaceus]

The last couple of days have been pure summer again. Temperatues usually around 30°C. Today we had a high of 29.5°C. And a very warm morning, considering we don't have excessive heat, with a low of 24.1°C. 🌴

[Silas_Sancona]

A toasty 105F at 12:54PM as we wait to see if we'll get any rain later today..  Clouds building down south / east of town ..but will they have enough " umph " to make it north or west later.. decent increase in moisture w/ an easterly breeze through the morning, skies are much clear-er  than they were at the same time across most of the state ..so, we'll see..

Despite a few pop ups roaming the east side of the valley late last night, just some brief spit here and very stingy flashes.  Regardless, since nothing fell there, we have broken the record for the latest first rainfall for the monsoon season at Sky Harbor..  We'll have to see how much deeper of a hole we dig before they record any rain.

Next two days look hotter as anticipated, but it won't last..

As mentioned earlier, been watching something interesting on the models since Saturday and wanted to wait out the same fantasy forecast " thoughts " until there was actual consensus regarding the possibilities..

It appears that " consensus " is good enough right now to start talking about what could be an interesting weekend / start of next week for AZ and CA..

As happens almost every year, El Nino years esp, it is looking like a now forming tropical system off S.W. Mexico will make a run northwest toward Baja and the Gulf over the next several days as it strengthens into what may be a major Hurricane ( Greg )

Things get interesting from there..  While both CA and AZ will get " something " from it ( ..if it follows the " Hugging Baja " paths on the 'Skeddy Plots ) there is a high possibility that the storm may dump ..quite a lot.. or rainfall over the deserts ..possibly coastal areas of S. Cal. ..If the track wavers more east? Yuma to Phoenix would be in line for an extended period of heavy rain..

Since the storm is just starting to form, all options, including completely turning west, well before reaching Baja, are on the table..  That said, it seems this could be a big rainfall event for the region..

On top of this, the Upper Level Low responsible for scattered T-storm activity and great Cloud Candy across N. Cal yesterday will veer back toward the central coast over the next few days as more moisture is drawn west from AZ, and some moisture is drawn north from Hurricane Fernanda, currently passing well southwest of Baja Sur.

I've mentioned an  " Upper level Low approaching from the south, then hanging up just off Monterrey "-esque scenario as a  " sweet spot " for getting summer thunderstorm activity into the S.F. Bay area in the past.. past few GFS runs depict such a possibility either Thursday or Friday..   rest of the state will see some activity in various areas up until then..  Greg, ..if he does make a run up the Baja, and at S. Cal, would start shoving moisture into the state sometime over the upcoming weekend..  

While close enough to keep all 👀  on, still plenty of time for everything to change significantly.. Could be a fish storm, a San Diego wiper ( Where the circulation curls west out to sea, just as it reaches the offshore waters of San Diego ) ..or maybe this is the kid that slams right into S.Cal ..with a little gusto..  We'll see..

May not be the only " tropical influence" on the weather  here ..and out there..  over the coming days either..

06Z and 12Z  'Skeddy Plots:

06Z



12Z



Potential rainfall  totals from Pivitol WX:

12Z GFS




12z ECMWF Hi-Res




Today's 10 and 14 day precip outlook " Thoughts " It's gonna rain ..somewhere..






We'll see how the afternoon runs, ...and the ones to come over the next couple days  look..



FYI, for anyone in S. Cal that doesn't want all that " Liquid Gold "   More than happy to have it all shift it this way,   haha..

[Palm Sundae]

2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

It appears that " consensus " is good enough right now to start talking about what could be an interesting weekend / start of next week for AZ and CA..

As happens almost every year, El Nino years esp, it is looking like a now forming tropical system off S.W. Mexico will make a run northwest toward Baja and the Gulf over the next several days as it strengthens into what may be a major Hurricane ( Greg )

Mos Def. Noticeably higher humidity w/ greyish clouds above. 20% humidity @ 105 close to 5 PM. A cool weekend with a chance for a high under 90 on Sunday. 

 

Plus maybe doubling the Monsoon-to-date rain total (less than 0.5"), lol but welcome.