What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

5 minutes ago, Palm Sundae said:

Here in Pinal we have an excellent chance of sub 90 highs and sub 60 lows to kick off October. 

Really anything around 90/60 +/- is pretty nice. About time for the snowbirds to start migrating in for the cool season.

Yep, about time to get the " Go away snow birds " signs hoisted again, haha..

[Brandon39.5]

11AM 25ºc (77º f) heading for 28ºc (82ºf) Nice fall sunny day here in Palma de Mallorca.  Perfect temperature these days on my city (on my opinion) which is your perfect temp for you guys?

[Foxpalms]

Min of 62.6f/17c. It's currently 68f/20c at 11:30. The high today is forecasted to be 23c/74f.  Nice and sunny blue skies today. The forecast for the next 2 weeks looks pretty sunny with a few days with a bit of rain but not too bad considering we are heading into the wettest time of the year for London (Oct,Nov). I have received  400mm/15.7 inches of rainfall for so far this year as thanks to the wetter than usual March, July and August.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Foxpalms

[GottmitAlex]

[UK_Palms]

Max of 23.9C / 75F here in western Surrey on Monday. Temperatures pushing 25C / 77F in parts of southwest London. A bit of cloud cover, but completely dry still.

 

Likely to be quite similar on Tuesday. Not bad conditions overall. Good for the palms and exotics, I guess.

[sandgroper]

A beautiful bright and sunny day of 25c here in Perth.

[sandgroper]

Currently 16c at 6.00am heading for a warm 34c. Only 3 weeks out of winter and already temps like this is not a good sign. Fortunately it looks like the temperature will drop quite dramatically after today which is a good thing. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A slightly toasty 103F at 4:38PM.. Couple more days in the low 100's before quite a cool down over the upcoming weekend..



Keeping an eye on the weekend storm since  the GFS continues to advertise the potential for showers ..and possible snow, in higher elevations of the Sierras / in parts of Nevada, N. Utah, and Colorado.. over the weekend into the start of next week..  May not be the only " early taste of winter '23/24 " in the forecast for CA either .. GFS continues to hint at the potential of another storm bringing a better chance of rain for Cen. / S. Cal around the 10th-12th.   For now, except for the most " enthusiastic " of model runs the past few days, neither storm looks to bring any rain to AZ ..except maybe areas north and north east of the Rim / Flagstaff.

That said, the next couple days may be the last 100's of the year. On the other hand,  Potential for a morning or two in the upper 50s -in town- aren't completely out of the question before the 15th though.
 

[Silas_Sancona]

5 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Keeping an eye on the weekend storm since  the GFS continues to advertise the potential for showers ..and possible snow, in higher elevations of the Sierras / in parts of Nevada, N. Utah, and Colorado.. over the weekend into the start of next week..  May not be the only " early taste of winter '23/24 " in the forecast for CA either

.. GFS continues to hint at the potential of another storm bringing a better chance of rain for Cen. / S. Cal around the 10th-12th.   For now, except for the most " enthusiastic " of model runs the past few days, neither storm looks to bring any rain to AZ ..except maybe areas north and north east of the Rim / Flagstaff.

That said, the next couple days may be the last 100's of the year. On the other hand,  Potential for a morning or two in the upper 50s -in town- aren't completely out of the question before the 15th though.
 

Uhhh... maybe i speak too soon, ...lol?

Meet tonight's very....   bullish / enthusiastic / extra dose of fantasy-land antics ..yada, yada, yada..  00Z GFS  rainfall / snow total  " thoughts "   Yea, it can rain ..and snow.. in October,  in CA,  but these maps / potential pattern ..has more of a late November / early December -ish look,  than what early October usually looks like, both here and to the west  ...If it actually pans out.. 

Maybe a shower or two here as well.

Let the weird  fall / winter '23 / 24  weather games begin???..

[UK_Palms]

Max of 24.4C / 76F here yesterday. A bit cooler today with storm Agnes lurking off the coast of southwest Ireland, causing quite a bit of disruption out west. Still dry and calm for London and southeast England however. Things look pretty dry overall moving forward. Currently 23.1C / 73F at 2pm here with scattered clouds.

 

Hoping for a warm start to October with temperatures in the 25-30C (75-85F) range. The ECMWF operational chart has 22C isotherms in southern England in the long range model (out to 8th October), which would equate to 30C / 85F temps at this time of year.

[Arecaceus]

This past week has yet again been extremely sunny and calm. Temperatures usually in the mid 20s Celsius. Clear blue skies and pleasant temps. September ends as a very dry month as a whole. Today's high has been 26.7°C with a low of 12.8°C this morning. ☀️🌡️🥰

[Foxpalms]

12 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Max of 24.4C / 76F here yesterday. A bit cooler today with storm Agnes lurking off the coast of southwest Ireland, causing quite a bit of disruption out west. Still dry and calm for London and southeast England however. Things look pretty dry overall moving forward. Currently 23.1C / 73F at 2pm here with scattered clouds.

 

Hoping for a warm start to October with temperatures in the 25-30C (75-85F) range. The ECMWF operational chart has 22C isotherms in southern England in the long range model (out to 8th October), which would equate to 30C / 85F temps at this time of year.

When looking at windy it shows on the forecast a south westerly wind coming all the way up from 20N! However the airmass also has air coming up from France mixed in there so it will be hard to predict how warm it will be.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 60f/15.5c max of 72f/22c. The isles of Scilly were left without power today due to 50mph winds with 70mph gusts. There was a wall of cloud going all the way up from Spain to Iceland. All the rain missed London.

[sandgroper]

Currently 27c heading for 29c.

[Silas_Sancona]

98F ..on the way to about 100-103F over the next few hours, with some wispy clouds passing through, and a breeze = Not too bad..

Cooling down for the remainder of the week / into the weekend / start of next week. Could be quite windy Sat. as an early fall storm passes through on Sat ..maybe a sprinkle for the foothills east and north of town, but otherwise dry.



As for a continuance of that cool down next week?  ..Not so fast ..For now at least. 

Looks like the earlier " Overall cooler pattern " thoughts presented by the GFS have shifted more north and east of the region, so, back to the mid / upper 90s by next weekend locally.  We'll see.  Mornings stay pretty decent regardless ..Mid / upper 60s.   About perfect for all things leafy green..

Next potential early fall storm for CA may occur around the 14-15th  ...If it doesn't get completely erased from the model runs again later.

[UK_Palms]

A balmy 18.7C / 65F at 3am after a max of 21.1C / 70F here on Thursday. Signs of something much warmer on the horizon going into October, hopefully...

 

Slightly off-topic, but some of you may be familiar with the 400 year old sycamore tree next to the 2,000 year old Hadrian's Wall in northern England, which is featured in the Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves movie with Kevin Costner. It has featured in several movies and is a local tourist attraction with many people proposing to their loved ones under it, or having their ashes scattered nearby. Over 100,000 people would visit it every year. Many people have photographed the Aurora Borealis (northern lights) over it, as recently as this year too. It also won the 'tree of the year' award in 2016.

 

Well some dipshit 16 year old kid has chainsawed it clean off overnight for a TikTok prank! I am done with this world. Send the asteroid now.

 

I am actually furious about this. More so than any palm tree that has ever been cut down. It was over 400 years old.

On top of that, the person has also damaged the 2,000 year old Roman wall as well and ripped out bricks! Just send the damn asteroid, please. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

17 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Slightly off-topic, but some of you may be familiar with the 400 year old sycamore tree next to the 2,000 year old Hadrian's Wall in northern England, which is featured in the Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves movie with Kevin Costner. It has featured in several movies and is a local tourist attraction with many people proposing to their loved ones under it, or having their ashes scattered nearby. Over 100,000 people would visit it every year. Many people have photographed the Aurora Borealis (northern lights) over it, as recently as this year too. It also won the 'tree of the year' award in 2016.

 

Well some dipshit 16 year old kid has chainsawed it clean off overnight for a TikTok prank! I am done with this world. Send the asteroid now.

 

I am actually furious about this. More so than any palm tree that has ever been cut down. It was over 400 years old.

On top of that, the person has also damaged the 2,000 year old Roman wall as well and ripped out bricks! Just send the damn asteroid, please. 

Considering this is the UK they will there will likely be barely any repercussions for the this.  Hopefully nothing like this happens to any of the palms, especially the CIDPS in the Tresco abbey gardens.  It's bad enough when people scratch their names into the 34 year old rhopalostylis sapidas there. That app in particular always seems to be the center of negative things.

[flplantguy]

That tree has been covered in many places online, with similar responses, but nothing ever changes.  The consequences are not harsh enough to prevent people from doing these things. Youth today flaunt it, there have been multiple videos of people just arrested mocking the system.  Expect more and secure your special plants if you live where these types have easy access.  Words can't describe what I think and feel about these people.

[EJPalm05]

13 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

A balmy 18.7C / 65F at 3am after a max of 21.1C / 70F here on Thursday. Signs of something much warmer on the horizon going into October, hopefully...

 

Slightly off-topic, but some of you may be familiar with the 400 year old sycamore tree next to the 2,000 year old Hadrian's Wall in northern England, which is featured in the Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves movie with Kevin Costner. It has featured in several movies and is a local tourist attraction with many people proposing to their loved ones under it, or having their ashes scattered nearby. Over 100,000 people would visit it every year. Many people have photographed the Aurora Borealis (northern lights) over it, as recently as this year too. It also won the 'tree of the year' award in 2016.

 

Well some dipshit 16 year old kid has chainsawed it clean off overnight for a TikTok prank! I am done with this world. Send the asteroid now.

 

I am actually furious about this. More so than any palm tree that has ever been cut down. It was over 400 years old.

On top of that, the person has also damaged the 2,000 year old Roman wall as well and ripped out bricks! Just send the damn asteroid, please. 

DAMN

[Foxpalms]

Min of 61.3f/16.2c. The temperature was still 66.2f/19c untill 4.50am before the clouds went away and we went to clear skies. Max of 70f/21c with 45% humidity.  Sunday should be in the mid 20s (77f).  It looks like that air coming up from the 20Ns is going to bring warm 850hpa temps of 18c. Even after the 18c 850hpa temps they will still be around 14-15c on the following days. The lows will probably be around 17-19c.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Foxpalms

[Silas_Sancona]

A breezy at times 96F at 1:21PM..  Supposed to be windy -er??  at some point today, but that forecast 30-40mph windiness hasn't shown up yet.. Perhaps a cloud or two around later before a nice Sunday / start of the new week ahead..



Unfortunately, that 3 or 4 day  " cool " spell will be short lived...

Unlike the earlier suggestions for a cool-ish and potentially unsettled pattern setting up for the west,  GFS isn't about to flip flop again now that it wants to keep things warm ..and mainly dry here and across most of CA / rest of the west after this weekend's storm heads out..  Fine i guess,  but would like to say goodbye to the upper 90s / settle into a pattern of 65-70F mornings.



At least we may be done adding more 100's this year's total ..which, as of yesterday,  ( ... if today /  warmer days forecast later next week don't exceed the forecast highs ) stands at 120 days, which is a little above the average of 111 days, ...but not crazy.  

 Ironically,  while we managed to smash pretty much every other record possible this summer,   the record for 100 / 100+ highs,  145,   set during the last brutally hot / dry summer in 2020, may not get toppled this year.  ..We can thank the abnormally cool ( ...But not Cold )  weather in  late May / June for that,  otherwise we might have already surpassed that record.



Today also marks the last day of the 2023 Monsoon season  and.... the brutally abysmal  .15" of  rain at Sky Harbor will make this year the driest Monsoon in history. 2nd place would be .35", which occurred sometime in the 1920's.  In 2019, which is now the 6th driest year here, Sky Harbor received 0.66" ..Just to put into perspective just how absent rain was here this year.

  While some isolated spots around the valley did a little better ( uh, much better, lol )  than the Airport,  the " Valley-wide  Average " for the season is well below normal as well.. 

Though it may be a few days before the final word is put out on exact #'s, One look at both the current drought monitor / Monsoon tracking page spells out how awful things look.  In a nutshell,  total #'s across the state are running about the same as the valley  ....pretty abysmal... though there are a couple weird surprises in the data as well. 

"Regardless,  Can only  hope next year will be better..  Not sure how much worse it can get than this year here in the Valley.   Sad that has to be said just a couple years after thinking 2019 would be the driest year we'd see for awhile.. 



Beyond that?   lots to get to, ..soon..   ..and we will ..soon,  lol..

 

[Palm Sundae]

4 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

would like to say goodbye to the upper 90s / settle into a pattern of 65-70F mornings.

Do we get those here? I forgot...   

[kinzyjr]

Currently 75F with light rain after a quick 1.25 inches of rain to give some early autumn relief from the intense heat and drought that dominated the 2023 summer.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Palm Sundae said:

Do we get those here? I forgot...   

We'll get there.. I hope,  haha.

[UK_Palms]

As we move into October (mid-autumn), we look to see where the next heat burst is going to come from. I almost can't believe I am saying that in this day and age at 51N. Expecting a cloudy 23-24C / 75F on Sunday in London (October 1st) and likely mid-20's C next weekend too. There is even a possibility of temperatures close to 30C / 85F next weekend.

This would have been a July forecast 50 years ago. Instead it is an early-mid October forecast in 2023. I suspect BBC is actually under-doing the maxes as well by at least 1-2C. We will likely see 26-27C / 80F next weekend. Where the nights are drawing in however, it is certainly looking cool with sizeable diurnal shifts. Still barely seeing any single digits however.

This forecast is for St James Park in central London. Generally looking pretty dry, which is unusual for October (London's wettest month).

 

7th-8th October period needs monitoring. Just a minor shift in modelling could result in 28-32C temps potentially. The UK October record is only 29.9C / 86F. Spain and France is going to be pulverising records over the next week or so. There is going to be loads of heat there for the UK to tap into later next week, potentially.

 

The ECMWF (Euro) model brings 19-20C isotherms 850hPa temps into the UK next week, which is almost unthinkable for October. It's simply not possible without climate change. A 20C isotherm in mid-late July would generate 35-40C ground temps. In early-mid October it could still generate 30C.

 

It's 16-17C / 62F at 5am in London as I type this and 18C / 64F on the south coast and even in Birmingham in central England... as we enter into October... many places almost registering a tropical night. There is quite widespread 18-19C minimums in central England tonight. London is cooler due to the clear skies currently.

 

The general background warming from climate change is undeniable at this point. Western Europe is already 3C+ warmer now compared to pre-industrial levels.

Edited October 1, 2023 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

Max of 24.4C / 76F here on Sunday. My nearest official Met Office Station at Wisley recorded 24.1C.

This would be a July forecast back in 1950. Instead it is an October forecast in 2023. Likely to increase higher as well in the coming days as we get nearer to the weekend.

 

The UK Met Office, ECMWF and GEM forecast models have 19-20C hPa temperatures over us at 1.5km. This would likely translate to about 30C at ground level.

 

Moscow for comparison, where the first frosts are expected next weekend. Temperatures down to -1C at ground level and -5C isotherms at 850 hPa level. Possibly the first snow for them as well. World's apart from London. Their daytime maximum on Sunday (7C) is half of what London's nighttime minimum is forecasted to be (14C).

Edited October 2, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

11 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

This would be a July forecast in 1950.

Instead it is an October forecast in 2023. Likely to increase higher as well in the coming days as we get nearer to the weekend.

 

The UK Met Office, ECMWF and GEM forecast models have 19-20C hPa temperatures over us at 1.5km. This would likely translate to about 30C at ground level.

 

Moscow for comparison, where the first frosts are expected next weekend. Temperatures down to -1C at ground level and -5C isotherms at 850 hPa level. Possibly the first snow for them as well. World's apart from London. Their daytime maximum on Sunday (7C) is half of what London's nighttime minimum is forecasted to be (14C).

If the 850hpa temps here are 19c then those BBC lows are going to be very inaccurate for here.  The 850hpa temp at the moment is 13c and its currently 17.2c at 3am.  17-19c lows would be my guess under clear skies. It was 74f/23c today under a mix of sun and clouds, so going by that if that 19c 850hpa temp happens +clear skies it could easily be 28-30c.

[Arecaceus]

The past days have been very sunny and warm again. Still summerly and very very dry for this time of the year. Temperatures usually in the mid to high 20s Celsius. Today's high was 27.8°C with a low of 16.2°C. Some official stations even passed 30°C today! Not even the evenings feel cold. It's like we're still in the middle of summer. ☀️🌴🥵

[UK_Palms]

Max of 22.4C / 73F here today with an afternoon thunderstorm. Very muggy and quite a bit of lightning here. Huge daytime flashes. Scary to be out in frankly, since it isn’t particularly common here. It's still a balmy 18.5C / 65F at midnight currently.

July is off to a good sta… I mean ‘October’ is off to a good start. A brief dip down to 19-20C tomorrow, before the return of mid-high 20’s C by the weekend. This would be a decently warm spell in July or August.

Huge temperature anomaly this weekend. I would expect to see 28C / 82F in London on Sunday with this setup. The UK temperature record for October is 29.9C / 86F, which would certainly take some beating and won’t happen.

Edited October 2, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Palm Sundae]

Looking at 100+ for Friday and maybe Saturday, Sunday. The endless summer continues!

 

At least the mornings are nice. Nothing like the endless heat of July, won't complain too much. It does look like a string of 90's highs after these hundo's as far as the eye can see....

[sandgroper]

Currently 16c at 6.30am heading for 28c.

[UK_Palms]

What is this sorcery... it's bloody October at 51N!

Slightly less intense warmth being forecast, but it is looking more prolonged now. Possibly 5 consecutive days of 25C / 77F temperatures for London now. I still reckon we will see 27-28C on Sunday as well. Time will tell, but October is usually the wettest month of the year in London and most of the UK. 👀

[Xenon]

Summer is officially OVER this weekend!! First sub-70F low since early June and looks like first sub-60F low too😱 

First sub-90F high since early June occurred on October 2nd and now we're looking at daytime highs in 70s?? Time to break out the sweaters 😱

[sandgroper]

Currently 16c at 6.30am heading for 33c.

[sandgroper]

A carbon copy of yesterday, currently 22c at 7.15am heading for 34c. A beautiful early morning at the beach, not sure what the water temperature was but it was quite pleasant for a paddle.

[GottmitAlex]

8:10pm pst

82.4f/28c

 

Didn't know why I was sweating so much. Seems the current temp is our high. At night!

 

[DTS]

i just love low pressure systems!

[GottmitAlex]

1:23AM October 7, 2023

No way!

Hot as heck! 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

A few clouds, a little haze, and a breeze ..with a good helping of October heat as a weak inverted trough slides overhead today / tomorrow... Same disturbance might increase clouds a little / bring the threat of a light shower or two to the high country tomorrow ..and / or Monday. Put today on repeat for the rest of the Indigenous People's holiday weekend / start of the week ahead.. 



Maybe a slight downtrend in temps beyond Wednesday, ..but 90s are the rule, locally at least,  for the time being..  We'll see about the clouds forecast for next Saturday's Eclipse viewing..

[Palm Sundae]

On 10/4/2023 at 2:40 PM, Palm Sundae said:

Looking at 100+ for Friday and maybe Saturday, Sunday. The endless summer continues!

Friday and Saturday in the books. Partly cloudy tomorrow = no 100. Easing into Fall from here. 😍