What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

87F atm ( 6:47PM ) after hitting ..104F on October 19th.. Right around the same tomorrow..  Then?????.... 

Right now, as you can see in this afternoon's screen grab,  the forecast ahead is still suggesting the much welcomed cool down and " possible " shower chance -es " to start off next week, followed by much cooler -than currently ( ..but still warm ) temps. 




GFS continues it's  .." pick - an - outcome " game as we round out October and head into November w/ today's 18Z run shifting back towards a  cool-ish and unsettled look compared to other runs hanging on to dry and warm..

  At the same time, the latest monthly outlook released for next month looks warm ..here at least.. Equal Chances regarding if we'll be stayin' mainly dry, or things end up more unsettled..  Not buying any of it -either way..   One thing is for sure, much warmer October than last year at the same time..



Some shots of neighborhood Wx station afternoon highs around town and down south.. Toasty for so late in the year for sure..

[UK_Palms]

16 hours ago, Hortulanus said:

Crazy! I don't even understand how this was possible considering the temperatures everywhere else. 😨
Have you noticed any plant damage? Looking back at last winter with temps around new year going above 20°C and then dropping into frost, I know that sudden temperature drops without any time for the plants to go into "hibernation" mode are the worst. Even if the freeze is not a hard one.

We had an abnormally cold plunge of air from the arctic, going from record high hPa temps for the time of year, to near record low hPa temps in the space of a week. The problem was the -5C hPa temps also coincided with clear skies all night and zero wind. Out in the rural countryside where I am, with no urban heat island and being 35 miles inland from the coast with sandy soils around me, it meant I got hit by pretty extreme radiation cooling and managed to go below freezing. Ultimate low was -1.3C in the exposed part of my garden.

In central London however, the temperature did not drop below +5C and many coastal locations did not drop below +10C. The mildest places, like southwest Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, did not drop below 12-13C. The main takeaway from this is that I am in a poor location with minimal protection on clear nights when there are low hPa temperatures, as you would get in winter. The lack of UHI or coastal influence was very apparent in my area, combined with sandy soils around here, which lose heat very quickly on clear nights.

Despite the extreme cooling of the air, ground temps were still +18C up until they point, helping most stuff and damage was minimal. The banana plants got some bronzing, but nothing major.  My smaller Ensete Maurelii shrugged it off like it was nothing surprisingly. Chilli plants in the ground were practically unscathed. Quick and decent daytime recovery at this time of year certainly helped too! The cells of the tender plants probably didn’t have enough time to freeze properly.

Edited October 20, 2023 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

Maximum temperature of 19.9C / 68F here yesterday, but some places reached 21C / 70F around London and the Kent coast.

Very mild nights again with minimums of 15-16C in a lot of places down south. Lots of heavy rain last night though as the storm affects Western Europe, which is currently lurking off the Bay of Biscay. Quite serious flooding in Scotland with entire villages evacuated and unfortunately some deaths now too. Things will get a lot worse in the coming days. Near record levels of precipitation is expected in Scotland and possibly Ireland too.

 

4-5 inches of rainfall in some parts of Scotland in just the past 12 hours alone. Flood waters reaching 6 foot in residential areas where evacuations are taking place.

Dave Brown’s Washingtonia in Kent has sent out inflorescences now recently, although it is too late in the year to flower properly. He will probably get a proper flowering in the next few years. His specimen got clobbered by the coldest winter in 12-13 years and is still replenishing its crown a bit, hence why it looks a bit tatty this year. The spring and summer weren’t great for us either this year, limiting the extent of recovery. @GottmitAlex

Robusta’s near Kew Gardens in southwest London. These are bound to flower next year, surely…

Edited October 20, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

6 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

We had an abnormally cold plunge of air from the arctic, going from record high hPa temps for the time of year, to near record low hPa temps in the space of a week. The problem was the -5C hPa temps also coincided with clear skies all night and zero wind. Out in the rural countryside where I am, with no urban heat island and being 35 miles inland from the coast with sandy soils around me, it meant I got hit by pretty extreme radiation cooling and managed to go below freezing. Ultimate low was -1.3C in the exposed part of my garden.

In central London however, the temperature did not drop below +5C and many coastal locations did not drop below +10C. The mildest places, like southwest Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, did not drop below 12-13C. The main takeaway from this is that I am in a poor location with minimal protection on clear nights when there are low hPa temperatures, as you would get in winter. The lack of UHI or coastal influence was very apparent in my area, combined with sandy soils around here, which lose heat very quickly on clear nights.

Despite the extreme cooling of the air, ground temps were still +18C up until they point, helping most stuff and damage was minimal. The banana plants got some bronzing, but nothing major.  My smaller Ensete Maurelii shrugged it off like it was nothing surprisingly. Chilli plants in the ground were practically unscathed. Quick and decent daytime recovery at this time of year certainly helped too! The cells of the tender plants probably didn’t have enough time to freeze properly.

Luckily the daytime temps were 13c after that cold night. Here it dropped to 43f/6.1c that night, the warmest part that area in the city of London only dropped to 44f/6.6c.  I did see a couple potted Ficus elasticas, red anthuriums and a Pachira aquatica there on Wednesday that were completely undamaged by that cold night.

[sandgroper]

Currently 19c at 7.30am heading for an overcast 29c today. Still a very nice morning at the beach to watch the sunrise.

[Silas_Sancona]

99F after reaching 102 earlier..

One more 100 tomorrow before a much more reasonable week ahead ..for now at least..

[UK_Palms]

@Silas_Sancona Is it normal for you guys to have 100's F plus in mid-late October there in AZ, or is that the effects of background warming from climate change? Those numbers seem pretty extreme even for your location at this time of year, despite the fact it is due to drop off next week. It's hard to comprehend 100F+ in late October at 33N latitude. If it was at say 20N, it would be a bit more understandable, I guess. But surely it shouldn't be that hot at 33N in mid-late October??

Edited October 21, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

@Silas_Sancona Is it normal for you guys to have 100's F plus in mid-late October there in AZ, or is that the effects of background warming from climate change? Those numbers seem pretty extreme even for your location at this time of year, despite the fact it is due to drop off next week. It's hard to comprehend 100F+ in late October at 33N latitude. If it was at say 20N, it would be a bit more understandable, I guess. But surely it shouldn't be that hot at 33N in mid-late October??

Using next year's map from Accuweather, -because it shows the day to day average,  you can see what the average high going through October would be.  As you can see, Phoenix ( assuming this is data at Sky Harbor ) would be a few deg. higher, but nowhere as hot as this year..

October " averages " for Chandler:



Phoenix:





Normally,  the latest you might expect a 100 reading would be around October 5th.   Absolute latest " official " 100 reading though occurred on October 27th, back in 2016.

First and Last dates for various temp thresholds here:



In a warming world, anticipate we'll see a 100F reading record appear in November at some point in the coming years..

[Arecaceus]

On 10/20/2023 at 1:31 PM, UK_Palms said:

We had an abnormally cold plunge of air from the arctic, going from record high hPa temps for the time of year, to near record low hPa temps in the space of a week. The problem was the -5C hPa temps also coincided with clear skies all night and zero wind. Out in the rural countryside where I am, with no urban heat island and being 35 miles inland from the coast with sandy soils around me, it meant I got hit by pretty extreme radiation cooling and managed to go below freezing. Ultimate low was -1.3C in the exposed part of my garden.

In central London however, the temperature did not drop below +5C and many coastal locations did not drop below +10C. The mildest places, like southwest Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, did not drop below 12-13C. The main takeaway from this is that I am in a poor location with minimal protection on clear nights when there are low hPa temperatures, as you would get in winter. The lack of UHI or coastal influence was very apparent in my area, combined with sandy soils around here, which lose heat very quickly on clear nights.

Despite the extreme cooling of the air, ground temps were still +18C up until they point, helping most stuff and damage was minimal. The banana plants got some bronzing, but nothing major.  My smaller Ensete Maurelii shrugged it off like it was nothing surprisingly. Chilli plants in the ground were practically unscathed. Quick and decent daytime recovery at this time of year certainly helped too! The cells of the tender plants probably didn’t have enough time to freeze properly.

Still incredible. But nice that nothing got really damaged.

[flplantguy]

It was 52 this morning, 55 under canopy and already 70 two hours later.  Back to mid 60s to mid 80s this week.  Perfect fall weather just a bit warm after a slight chilly spell for here.  Month of November looking warm too.  The areas near the water were much warmer, over 60 mostly.

[Silas_Sancona]

89F on the way to the mid- 90s later. Relief from the heat begins tomorrow.  For the moment, what slim rain chances were in the forecast Tuesday - Thursday, are outta here..  Looks like whatever amount of leftover moisture from Norma gets pulled north will be too far to the east. 

Regardless, A deep and cold trough passing east across the Inter-mountain West keeps temperatures under control here.  Whether or not the " colder " GFS runs, which show the 540mb line swinging thru N. and Cen. CA / N. AZ,  actually pan out remains to be seen.



Something else to keep a close eye on: ..Could Kansas City see another " October Surprise?? " ..Today marks 27 years since the '96 event which dropped 5-8" there ..which is rare.  We'll have to see how the suggested pattern looking to evolve over ..and east of the Rockies shapes up this week   ..Could be quite the weather story heading into the final days of the month. 

Same set up could set the stage for the N.E. U.S. seeing it's first good snowfall just after the start of Nov. as well..

12Z  GFS " suggested " total Snowfall accumulation totals for the Central Plains:  Overall, storm setup has been on the maps for days. While exactly " How much "  snowfall occurs over N.E. KS has wavered in the time this set up has been on the maps, the general " idea " has hung on in the day to day / run to run forecasts as well so, ..We'll see. 



 

[Xenon]

84F with dew point of 74F at 10:30 AM. Forecast looks about as good as it gets....did some fertilizing over the weekend. 

[Foxpalms]

Low of 50f/10c with a high of 60.8f/16c. Slightly cooler than yesterdays high of 65f/18c. The max UV index today was 2. The gfs run looks very odd with cold fronts and warm air masses switching every day. It's suggesting one day the 850hpa temp will be 13c and the next it will be -3c! The forecast for the next 7 days is pretty much the same everyday highs of 15-16c with lows of 10-12c.

[DTS]

Warm then ohmygoditscold

[Palm Sundae]

Some chance of highs dipping down into the 70's starting Sunday. Lows in the low 50's.

 

You can tell it's nice out because everyone is out doing things instead of posting about the weather.  Got some palms re-potted this week and plan to plant some cactus.

[Silas_Sancona]

16 minutes ago, Palm Sundae said:

Some chance of highs dipping down into the 70's starting Sunday. Lows in the low 50's.

 

You can tell it's nice out because everyone is out doing things instead of posting about the weather.  Got some palms re-potted this week and plan to plant some cactus.

Agree, stuff to do, and yes, the neighborhood walkers are out enjoying a stroll again..

Stickin' with the 80s up this way.. Though i think  the 77-79F range is possible Sunday / Monday ..Then back to your currently regularly scheduled programming ..Break out your Moon walking shoes...  Nights / mornings are about perfect..



We'll see of course, but, current " perfect " weather pattern may stick around awhile too..  If it holds, looking much different than this time last year headed into next month.


14 day:




3 week:

[Foxpalms]

Min of 51f/10.5c max of 61f/16c with 64% humidity. The max UV index was a 2. Cooler than yesterday as the sunshine yesterday made the temp rise to 63f/17c. The bougainvilleas are still in flower though the white one, which is thornless, doesn't have as many flowers on it as the pink and purple ones do. I am impressed how much they have grow around 4-5ft in 1 year. The lantana calippo tutti frutti has also grown very fast getting to around 4.5ft in height at it's highest point against the wall from a small plant and has spread very wide.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Foxpalms

[Silas_Sancona]

24 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Agree, stuff to do, and yes, the neighborhood walkers are out enjoying a stroll again..

Stickin' with the 80s up this way.. Though i think  the 77-79F range is possible Sunday / Monday ..Then back to your currently regularly scheduled programming ..Break out your Moon walking shoes...  Nights / mornings are about perfect..



We'll see of course, but, current " perfect " weather pattern may stick around awhile too..  If it holds, looking much different than this time last year headed into next month.


14 day:




3 week:

*** Forgot to add the Current Longer- term thoughts from yesterday's update of the ECMWF  " Weeklys "   Cooling off a little, maybe an increase in precip. potential,  ..but overall,  looks more " typical "  rather than  " Cold " like last year.  We'll see of course...

Week of  Nov. 27- Dec 4th:







Week of Dec. 4th - Dec. 11th:

[greysrigging]

Peak 'build up' season across the Top End.  Only 1.6mm rain so far in Oct.  And no rain greater than 2mm since late April.
You know its dry when the rainforest burns......

[sandgroper]

@greysrigging I used to hate this time of year in the north, high humidity with high heat and it just won't rain to cool things down a bit. I don't miss it mate

[Xenon]

89F...downright hot today but winter is coming 

Nearly 4pm local time and it's in the mid 30s in far north Texas and well into the 90s down south, the front won't arrive in far southern Texas until another 32-34 hours 

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Xenon

[Las Palmas Norte]

High today 50°F / 10°C - Low 32°F / 0°C - Clear skies.

[JohnAndSancho]

 

8 hours ago, Xenon said:

89F...downright hot today but winter is coming 

Nearly 4pm local time and it's in the mid 30s in far north Texas and well into the 90s down south, the front won't arrive in far southern Texas until another 32-34 hours 

 

We're supposed to hit 32, 30, and 34 Tues-Thurs here. Highs in the high 50s. 

[Arecaceus]

Weather currently is mild but quite windy. Usually heavy rain and lots of sunshine alternating throughout the day. Today's high was 17.0°C and the low 14.5°C. Some places still get over 21°C and nights are very mild, which somehow has been a theme for the whole year of 2023 so far. Everything is still growing in my garden, many things still flowering or even putting out new flowers like in the case of one of my bottlebrushes:


 

[Xenon]

88F with a 74F dew point at 1:30 pm, muggy!

Beautiful contrast of winter and summer in Texas today

 

 

The front just passed through Austin...San Antonio is next, then Houston 😱

Edited October 29, 2023 by Xenon

[kinzyjr]

Currently 88F and sunny with a perpetual light breeze and moderate humidity.  Perfect weather as we approach Halloween.

[Palm Sundae]

On 10/27/2023 at 1:02 PM, Palm Sundae said:

Some chance of highs dipping down into the 70's starting Sunday. Lows in the low 50's.

Fall is here. Lows in the upper 40's tonight and highs in the 80's for about 10 more days after tomorrow with another 70's kind of day. Plants are loving it after the rough summer. Seeing new growth, late seasonal flowers. Enjoying it.

Edited October 29, 2023 by Palm Sundae

[Silas_Sancona]

A  perfect day for getting stuff done..  61F at 7:20PM on the way to the mid-50s = sleeping with the window open..

Nothing spooky about the forecast as we head towards all the Halloween, and Dia de los muertos celebrations to start the week ...and kick off November..

  Nothin' spooky about the  warm up toward the end of the week either..  Just more perfect fall weather in the desert..  The Peppers are happy, lol.

[SFLP48584]

69F, nice and mild still.

[SeanK]

At one point this afternoon, I checked Ventusky; Birmingham was 63° and Montgomery was still 79°. The front is starting to blow through ATL this evening. We expect lows of 32° two nights this week.

[JohnAndSancho]

It's officially Soup and Flannel Pajamas weather. Already brought the plants inside. 

[SeanK]

On 10/28/2023 at 4:50 PM, Xenon said:

89F...downright hot today but winter is coming 

Nearly 4pm local time and it's in the mid 30s in far north Texas and well into the 90s down south, the front won't arrive in far southern Texas until another 32-34 hours 

 

07:30, I see Amarillo - 40°, Corpus - 50°

[Xenon]

4 minutes ago, SeanK said:

07:30, I see Amarillo - 40°, Corpus - 50°

Yep the heavy clouds all day (south of about Austin) have prevented much daytime heating while the front has already cleared north/central Texas. It's a different story tonight with north/central Texas dropping quite a bit while south/southeast Texas will stay nearly constant from now until sunrise tomorrow as the clouds are expected to persist. Currently 48F in Houston with a forecast low of 44F tonight. Ready for the 80s to return by the weekend lol 

[SFLP48584]

76 here now but should get into the 50s this weekend.

[Foxpalms]

Low of 47f/8.3c max of 57f/13.9c at 53N. Cooler here than down in London where the high was 61f/61.1f. Up here there was heavy rain this morning from the storms coming off the Atlantic.

[JohnAndSancho]

Supposed to get to 31 tonight (currently 50@7:30pm)

 

Smokey the Cat has already claimed her spot between the heater and the creepiest box of toilet paper ever. 

[Silas_Sancona]

73F at 6:08PM w/ a few high clouds filtering through..  Perfect for the start of November...

Smooth sailing / no complaints kind a' forecast ahead as we head into the first 10 days of the month.. Longer ranges ( 10 and 14 day ) maintaining the mild / warm n' dry pattern for now..  We'll see what the weeklys have to say tomorrow.


 

[JohnAndSancho]

It's pretty, but damn it's cold. Also the windows in my bedroom are a little drafty. Currently using Sancho as a space heater. 

[flplantguy]

47 in the open and not much different anywhere else due to wind.  Meanwhile South Florida is in the low 70s.  Very different weather here than there that's for sure.

[Xenon]

36F this morning near Katy. No ground frost and no signs of frost damage either, exposed banana and papaya look fine. Guess it's time to fertilize again this weekend lol