What is your current yard temperature?

[Arecaceus]

This past week the weather has pretty much been the same as the week before just a bit warmer on average. Pretty windy throughout. And also this week the trees started to go yellow, dropping leaves as well. Again sun and rain/clouds are alternating non stop. Today's it's exeptionally windy with up to 70 km/h gusts so far. That's because of the huge storm system over Europe. High today has been 17.2°C and the low 13.4°C. 💨🌴🌦️

[Silas_Sancona]

A perfectly warm 84F at 1:34PM  as forecast.. No need to hoist the forecast for the rest of the week.. Basically the same as today..





Thursday update to the ECMWF Weeklys are out...  Take a look.. ( Hopefully the links work )

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202311020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202311130000

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202311020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202311130000


Quick look at the " Weekly Mean Temperature / "" Surface Mean Temp.", and Mean Precip Anomalies"  forecast plots for N. America thru Dec. 18th, ..Looks pretty average to warm-ish for the lower desert S.W., and CA ( though cooler than average Temp. anomalies may start to show up around the week of Dec. 18th out there )

Precip anomalies look average to spotty above Avrg. ( here ) and trending above avrg. at times in CA / Great Basin / Cen. Rockies..


For the moment, Greatest potential for above avrg precip anomalies looks to center up over the southeastern U.S. around the Dec. 11th timeframe..  Temp. anomalies out there look to waver between lean cooler / lean milder thru the suggested forecast period... So....

We'll see what happens...





Most recent update to what is happening w/ this year's Eurasian Snow cover..  Darker Red line is this year..  I myself are looking at what snow cover looked like in Fall of 2020 ( Greenish - Yellow line ) for some not-necessarily-winter - related  clues.



Link to this week's  AER Blog update from Judah Cohen:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

[sandgroper]

Currently 25c at 9.30am heading for 36c.

[JohnAndSancho]

Much brrrr confirmed. Got an old space heater from my brother. The thermostat in it is obviously broken and I'm def leaving my bedroom door open tonight for the gas heater in the living room.

[sandgroper]

Currently 24c at 8.00am heading for a warm top of 37c. Cooling down nicely over the coming week though, looking forward to some more comfortable temperatures. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A nice 75F after a run into the mid - 80s earlier..  Slight changes to the weekend ...and possibly further out..



Looks like the 90s aren't quite done as we may see ..at least a couple days.. reach just beyond the 90F mark before next Tuesday.. Cools back down after that though.  Nights stay pleasantly cool regardless..

Taken all together, if we do hit 90 -or greater the next few days, we could add -at least- 2 more days to this year's 90F total, which currently sits at 182 days..  Typically, our last 90F high would occur on October 30th.  Same w/ Phoenix.


Beyond that??? ..We'll see.. Today's 10, 14, and 3 week forecast from the CPC has played a bit of a switch ( compared to earlier in the week ..and yesterday's update from the ECMWF )  a bit introducing the potential for rain ahead ( Lean " above average " rainfall potential in the outlooks )  Not sure i believe it, but, ..that's just me..  Note that a slight chance for showers does show up in our current WxU 10 day..

All three of today's outlooks keep temps. somewhere around average, so, while we might see some showers, it may stay mild. 

[Palm Sundae]

3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Looks like the 90s aren't quite done as we may see ..at least a couple days.. reach just beyond the 90F mark before next Tuesday.. Cools back down after that though.  Nights stay pleasantly cool regardless..

Taken all together, if we do hit 90 -or greater the next few days, we could add -at least- 2 more days to this year's 90F total, which currently sits at 182 days..  Typically, our last 90F high would occur on October 30th.  Same w/ Phoenix.

 

I'm seeing three days right now at or above 90. Now that the hundo's are done, is it time to complain about 90's in November? Nah, just kidding. I've got some  more yard work to get done including planting more cactus - so this kind of weather is just fine thank-you.

[Silas_Sancona]

13 minutes ago, Palm Sundae said:

 

I'm seeing three days right now at or above 90. Now that the hundo's are done, is it time to complain about 90's in November? Nah, just kidding. I've got some  more yard work to get done including planting more cactus - so this kind of weather is just fine thank-you.

Oh no, lol ..no complaints   ..Complain / -aints / -aning  = Not words in my vocabulary..  A few days in the low 90s, in November ..or January.. are fine ( .. though maybe pushing it a little in Jan. haha )

Have trenches to dig for sprinkler line extentions this weekend myself ..and get some seed down / certain potted stuff moved to my " winter warm spot " out back. 

[kinzyjr]

Currently 64F at the old homestead.  Another fall night with ~10F difference from the coolest measure out by the swamp to the warmest measure downtown.

[RedRabbit]

Currently seeing a 9f spread between the front porch and lanai in the back. 

It’s one of those times where sensor placement matters a lot! 

[Silas_Sancona]

Toasty Monday in November..  91F at 2:21PM ( just ticked up to 92 )  .... Lots of 90s across the E. Valley and Tucson atm..  Day #3 working on the irrigation and it feels hotter today than yesterday / Saturday - which were about as warm as today.









Tucson...



Heat is looking to be short - lived as a dry ( here ) storm passing to the north brings down some cooler air mid - week.. Warms back to the mid - 80s again by next weekend ...before another cool down.

 

All that said, some signs the pattern may shift wetter come mid month, or as we get closer to Thanksgiving as a storm or two digs further down the CA coast before heading east ..We'll see..


On a side note : It's Nov. 6th and there are still Cicadas around / calling..  Don't recall a year where they were still active so late into the Fall.

[Silas_Sancona]

A fine 74F at 4:40PM..  Looking good for the weekend ahead before entering the first possible stretch of cool-ish ..and wet.. weather of the season ahead..



While earlier longer range forecasts had been suggesting November might stay fairly dry,  all of today's GFS runs,  and about half of them over the last few days-,  as well as both the 10 and 14 day outlooks / Monday and today's update from the ECMWF look WET ..Esp. for California around or just after the 15th as a series of storms may slam the west over the next 10 days.

If the last couple runs of the GFS are to be believed, a much more significant series of storms may be lining up for Thanksgiving week.  All that said, whether this is a sign of the overall pattern for the winter ahead isn't quite as clear..  While El Nino- related effects may influencing things over the next few weeks,  we'll have to see if any of the other big players in the weather pattern this time of year change things up as December approaches, or if we're headed into another extended,  wet and cool winter.


Today's 10 and 14 day:









A look at potential precip. and temp. trends thru February from this months update from the NMME.. 

Dec:






Jan:






Feb:

[Foxpalms]

It's currently 48f/9c under clear skies at 6.13am in London. The 850hpa temp is 0c. Feeling cold outside. The Scilly isles are still having lows of 11-13c. The scottish skiing areas are covered in snow and are having highs below 0c. Meanwhile on the some of the Scottish islands at 57N, they are having weather warmer than Seattle 47N (690 miles further south).

[UK_Palms]

I’m getting absolutely cained here again tonight under the clear skies. Already down to 1.3C / 35F at 8:30pm with no coastal influence or urban heat island.

 

Central London holding out at about 9C / 48F in the warmest parts…

Ventnor and the Isle of Wight looking very mild at 11-12C / 53F…

The south coast in general is looking very mild tonight. Some places are 12C warmer then my location right now!!!

 

Here is the forecast for my nearest Met Office station at Wisley. It’s looking fairly cool now with winter knocking on the door…

London City Airport for comparison, showing the cool days, but much milder nights…

[GottmitAlex]

Nov 11th, 2:32PM

80F/27c

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, GottmitAlex said:

Nov 11th, 2:32PM

80F/27c

A very nice day there.  It crested near 90F here today and felt more like summer.

[UK_Palms]

Pretty good recovery here as cloud cover and warmer hPa’s roll in just in time to prevent an air frost. I went from 0.8C / 33F at 11:50pm, back up to 5.1C / 42F at 03:00am. I have light rain falling as well now.

Cloud cover hasn’t reached Eastbourne or Bexhill in Sussex yet, but it is still holding up at 11-12C / 53F by the Sussex coast there.

The Isles of Scilly look like the warmest spot right now at 13C / 55F. Nothing surprising given that they haven’t even had a frost there in 6 years now.

 

Edited November 12, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

Temp here dropped to 6c and has now risen to 7c.  The sea surface temps are still fairly warm for the time of the year, hence why the costal areas are performing so well at the moment.  The SST around Ventnor is 14c. 

[Foxpalms]

Currently 61f/16.1c with 81% humidity in London and sunny at 10.25am.  London city airport is currently over 16c and unsurprisingly overachieved the met office forecast as per usual. Not a bad forecast for mid November either. Still very mild temps on the Scilly isles and Jersey.  At the moment the gfs runs are showing no signs of very cold weather however the cold isn't far away either. Heathrow is forecasted to be 17c today.

[Arecaceus]

This last period we got less alternating days. Less rain, less wind and even more sun. Therefore we had two pretty cold nights one with a low of 3.8°C and another one with a low of 3.1°C. Trees are also getting their autumn colours now. Today rain and wind came back with force. The amount today was crazy. We had a high of 17.3°C and a low of 7.6°C this morning. I'm impressed about some plants still growing or flowering. Especially with the short days we have now. 🌥️🌴

My Grevillea johnsonii is growing more than in summer I feel like. It seems to like this weather for some reason. Same for some other plants...




Even my Dipladenia is having some new flower buds!

New growth on Acacia dealbata:

I took these pictures this past week. The only negative is that the strong winds earlier this month bent some plants or lifted the roots a bit on smaller ones.

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 74F at 6:26PM after reaching 85F earlier.. Warm days / warmer than normal evenings for the next few days before some showers may pass through the area as the kick off to Thanksgiving week rolls in.



As you can see, ..the earlier suggested series of feisty storms / potential rounds of rain here?  Poof!,  Gone with the wind..

Depending on how things shake out this coming weekend, ( would'nt be shocked if we end up not seeing -any- rain ) Thanksgiving week could be mild, or trend a touch warmer than currently forecast..  Looking dry  -for now- too.. As for where things stand rainfall- wise atm? Over 3" below normal currently.


Was curious so i took a look at the current half of the month, compared to last year at the same time.. Clearly warmer overall this year..

[Silas_Sancona]

A fairly warm for mid - November 80F at 10:43AM ..headed for the upper 80s later despite lots of subtropical clouds passing through the area today..

Cooler temps still on tap after today, though i really think they'll be slightly warmer than forecast - at least for the next couple days-  ..Thanksgiving week looking pretty nice, even for this part of the world. Could actually be warmer than currently forecast next Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday if cloud cover is slightly less than suggested / High Pressure forecast to rebound over the area at the time is a touch stronger than forecast right now.

Already have been a couple notched this week, and could see another morning of record warm overnight lows locally as well.



As for any possible rain chances the next couple days? ...iii really don't see much of anything falling  here, in the valley / Tucson area at least.  Different story across California where they could see some. Warm storm ..err, first wave of this storm -at least- , so, shouldn't be too chilly.  Snow levels should also be quite high.

Interesting takes on the COD Satelite atm with the big ..and mean - looking cut off low stuck spinning off CA atm ( wider view ), and a band of subtropical energy generating some pretty energetic - looking thunderstorm activity currently headed towards Baja Norte, and Guadalupe Island ....possibly southern areas of  San Diego County atm ( Sub - Regional Sat. View ) .

Not something you see occurring off the west coast too often in mid November. Nothin but  Glassy, Cirrus covered skies, and some passing mid level fluff cruisin' through AZ today.







Should be another blog update from Judah Cohen tomorrow, as well as an update from the CPC for the coming months ( Monthly Seasonal Outlook ) So, we'll take a look at those things tomorrow.

[Silas_Sancona]

A perfect - for - mid - November 76F at 10:48AM  ..after a surprise .22" of rain last night ( ..A little rain fell overnight Wednesday as well ) 

To the upper 70s / low 80s later as we await the next part of the " Ball of Confusion " cut off low ..currently swirling around off the coast of CA... to head east.  Interesting to note on Satellite the 3, distinct " Vort Lobes "  ( 3 separate, small areas of low pressure rotating around within the " main " low pressure area )  ...As well as the lightning activity lining up ahead of the low as it lurks just off the coast.. A rare sight for this time of year off the west coast..   Nice slug of moisture being drawn northeast off Central Baja as well.





Forecast for the opening weekend of Thanksgiving Week " Fest-ies " looks Ggrreeeaattt!  for the State.. ( and CA as well )  We'll see if we get the suggested rainfall tonight.. Then? pretty niiccee for " Stuff your face w/ Turkey " day..  75F is currently suggested, but, i think that may end up being a touch under- played..  Anyway,  as it looks right now, cools off ..a little as next week closes out, but, ..still perfect for the desert..  We'll see about any more storms the GFS is trying to shove down the west coast right now  later.



Cpc 90 day for December was posted yesterday ...Considering the current " Kid " in the room ( El Nino ), i'm not all that impressed with what the outlooks are suggesting for the next few months, ..out here at least..  Just one train of thoughts -that could go any which way of course, but, i'd think the wetter than avrg. signal would be stronger here..












Interesting note on how this year's El Nino could play out in this part of the world from Daniel Swain in his most recent blog post. 

https://weatherwest.com/

And Judah ( over at AER )

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Thursday's update from the ECMWF Weeklys

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-t?base_time=202311160000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202311270000

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202311160000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401010000

Check on the CFSv2 ENSO Chart from Stormsurf:  According to this, not looking like we'll hit the " Magic 2.0+C " this time around ..We'll see.  Could be a quick dive back to " Nina Land " by the spring too.. Awaiting the Technical Nov. update from the IRI



Lots to digest   ..Pun or no pun intended..

No worries though, ..we had our " super wet " winter last year.  Everyone east of the Rockies can enjoy more of that this year..  ..I want my summer rain back, lol.

Edited November 17, 2023 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[Palm Sundae]

2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

 ..after a surprise .22" of rain last night ( ..A little rain fell overnight Wednesday as well )

Same. Wouldn't mind getting a bit more but no, not the deluge like last year. Getting 3" in one day in the desert...  that's not why I'm here.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Palm Sundae said:

Same. Wouldn't mind getting a bit more but no, not the deluge like last year. Getting 3" in one day in the desert...  that's not why I'm here.

Wouldn't mind another .15-.25" tonight / tomorrow morning.. Maybe waking up to a morning light show either..

Those 1-3" ' ers this time of year aren't terrible, as long as it occurs only once or twice during the winter ..and it stays mild / warm between them.  Think that's unlikely this year ..downpours like that anyway.. but, ya' never know..

Keep an eye of S. America, ..could be a hint at what spring could bring..



 

[James B]

Daniel Swain’s stuff is always a good read.

So far we are slightly warmer and drier than last November here in Socal. We had our first Mountain snow on November 8th last year. So far the atmospheric river that caused some rain on Wednesday did not produce any snow in the San Gabriel’s or San Bernardino mountains. Tomorrow a smaller amount of rain is predicted to fall and still no mountain snowfall. 
 

We had an extremely wet and mild summer here. I had at least 10 days of rain with multiple days in July, August, and September. Which led to a mild fire season.

Still December-March to go and things could change fast. 

[Silas_Sancona]

74F at 12:22PM after some mornin' rain with a few clouds passing through..

Not too shabby rainfall totals across most areas over the past couple days..   We'll see when we'll get more..

[sandgroper]

Currently 30c at 5.00pm.  A warm week ahead for late spring, not looking forward to summer.

[Silas_Sancona]

A perfectly seasonable evening as Thanksgiving week kicks off..  Mild days, cool ..but far from cold.. nights, esp. late week / start of next week..  Can't ask for better weather to get the clock ticking on the holiday season. 





A little less than a month left before sunsets start getting later..



Still, Exactly 2 months before mornings start getting earlier...

[JohnAndSancho]

Sancho does not like thunderstorms. I couldn't find him... He wedged himself behind some boxes in a closet. 

[sandgroper]

Bloody ridiculous weather, it's spring! Not looking forward to summer.

[UK_Palms]

After a very mild few weeks, it looks like a proper polar incursion is about to descend on Europe. I had highs of 16C / 61F a few days ago, but the model outlook puts us in the freezer going into December.

This could be a palm killer event for many parts of Europe away from the Atlantic and Med regions. London may just escape frost altogether, however the continent could be about to get nuked. This isn’t a forecast, but caution is advised moving forward.

Nighttime minimums for Central Europe on the GFS 18z last night. -25C in the Alps. -18C in east Germany. -5C to -6C throughout France. Brutal for early December.

Daytime maximums well below freezing as well. The UK doesn’t look too bad (top left) in comparison to Central Europe. -8C in Berlin and subzero daytime temps in Paris too, compared to +4C in London.

 

There is cross model agreement for a major cold snap and the ensembles support this as well. The question is just how intense will this cold incursion actually be and where will it descend exactly? Time will tell.

The latest GFS 06z run doesn’t make for pretty viewing. The UK may be okay, but other places are definitely in the danger zone. The ECMWF model looks similarly cold too. Worrying times.

 

Edited November 22, 2023 by UK_Palms

[Chester B]

51F/10.5C and cloudy conditions today and pretty much the same for the coming week.  This weekend looks like I'll be getting my first frost with a string of nights at or slightly above freezing.

[Silas_Sancona]

A perfect 66F at 6:06PM  after a day of mild, wall to wall sunshine. Warm enough that yes, ..it's the day before THX giving ..and the sound of a few Cicadas is still in the air..

Some clouds tomorrow, ( More Sunset action?  maybe?? )  Some hints at maybe a sprinkle nearby Friday night / snow showers roaming parts of the Rim as the tail end of a passing storm brushes the area but otherwise status quo thru the rest of the week / weekend ahead..  Looking a little warmer heading into next week compared to how the start of next was looking in earlier forecasts, but ..mild is the rule, overall..

As November closes out and December rolls in, attention turns toward which direction the overall pattern across the Southwest and California will trend.. GFS has been hinting at a wetter pattern setting up in numerous recent runs.. Today's 18z bucking the wetter looking runs - for the moment- however..  so,  we'll just have to wait n' see.. 

If a couple of the wetter runs were to stick, we could see a good soaker sometime right after the start of next month.


New blog post from Daniel Swain:

https://weatherwest.com/

..and from Judah Cohen..  Everyone back east should keep a close eye on some of his after mid December thoughts through next month..

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

[sandgroper]

Still unpleasant here, hoping for a cooler change next week. 

[Palm Sundae]

Low of 34 this AM. Early taste of winter weather.

Mostly 60's/40's next couple weeks with low 70's the next few days. Chance of rain Friday-Sat keeps changing but hoping for .25" or so for the cactus/agave. Irrigating the shrubs/trees/palms in winter mode - about once a week or less depending on rainfall.

[kinzyjr]

Currently 73F and rain.  Thus far, nearly a quarter inch of rain and hopefully more on the way.  The next couple of days will be a little brisk overnight, with lows in the mid-40s.

[SFLP48584]

79F and overcast here, atm.  We just got a little rain.

-John

[sandgroper]

Currently a much more pleasant 25c. 18 homes were lost in bushfires over the last few days in the north of Perth. Again our fireos are hero's with all fires now brought under control.

[Silas_Sancona]

70 at 11:49AM ..on the way to somewhere in the lower to mid- 70s later under partly to mostly high cloudy skies...

Final few days of November ..and Meteorological Autumn / Start of December ..and Meteorological Winter  lookin'  ..nuthin' to complain or whine about..  A little mild he next few days, followed by a cool shot ..then, mild again ..depending on if ..or how strongly... a potential area of high pressure forecast to build over the area after the upcoming weekend sets up.

A few cool nights ..Might even see a couple more 38-41F lows..  We'll see about the rain chances in the forecast for the end of the week ..Been bouncing around between nothing ..and maybe a few showers  ..no big deal regardless..