What is your current yard temperature?

[flplantguy]

Posted in the Florida winter thread but also fits here. My home is in the chilly sliver by the coast at 56 degrees, with much of the Florida peninsula closer to 70.  The shallow water gets cold fast and the clouds are keeping it that way right before a freeze.

[Silas_Sancona]

Pretty nice Thursday around town / rest of the area as the first " 80' in the Hood " of 2024 show up on the board.. Downtown Chandler briefly reached 76F,  but is hangin' in the 73-75F range atm ( 3:47PM )



About the same ..Maybe a nudge warmer / a few more neighborhood 80s poppin up  as we end the week tomorrow,  before we slip into a slightly cooler,  N' wetter...  stretch  ..at least for a few days ..Before more nice stuff returns next week.. As the forecast looks for now. 

We could use a nice, mild soak to get the spring stuff off to a decent start, so some rain ahead is a good thing..


Temps around town / Tucson / Central Borderlands, as of 3: 25PM:













































Some thoughts as we enter the final stretch of Jan, and start down the final month of " winter "  .." Meteorological " Winter,  the only one that counts, at least here..    Hold onto the " Astro. " definition if you choose to..



While it has been suggested the west ..southwest esp. might slide into a somewhat wetter period at times next month / rest of winter '23 / '24,  i'm a bit skeptical..  Signal from today's release of the 30 / 90 day isn't all that strong for " wet " here.. Yes, there is a " higher prob. " painted across S. Cal and the western edge of AZ, but this " signal " isn't all that strong,  in my own opinion..  Weekly signal has been waffling a bit too.. so...

Feb. outlook, released today..




Today's 10 and 14 day outlook don't look wet to me..









Looking at the the suggested thoughts from the MJO,  that big, orange blob ( Building In-active MJO Phase ) currently forecast to cross ...and cover.. the Pacific thru mid / late Feb. Esp. on the " Empirical Wave Propagation " chart, would really tamp down on  reliable / consistent storm activity..





The stalling ..and potential back tracking... of the MJO in the Phase diagram also gets a 🤔 thought..  You'd want it wayy out, far away from the center as it heads into the Central / East Pacific / under the U.S.  for a significant,  West Coast wet period.   Appears it will head straight for the center, if this forecast holds.  ECMWF " thoughts " don't look all that different from what the GFS is thinking, at least to me..   ..Just a thought.  We'll see how this actually evolves as we get into next month.










At far as Temps?  ..Looking at both the current 10 and 14 day forecast " thoughts "/  Weeklys from Tidbits / ECMWF   ..Looks pretty " toasty " ( esp, the CPC  10 / 14  day outlooks )  ..Some talk a cooler / colder pattern might try to descend upon the eastern U.S. mid / later on in Feb. Not so sure myself..   ..regardless, if it does,  might result in more potential ridging on this side of the continent..  Again, we'll see..







Overall, as we make our way through the final leg of " winter " here,  Can see a couple more periods of passing showers, but ..while those periods may bring cooler temps at times, don't think we'll deviate too far from normal ..and may trend solidly above normal again sometime beyond mid month next month into March ...and beyond.   

If it really flexes it's muscle mid to late month,  the suggested,  strong - looking " Inactive "of the  MJO  could lead to quite a warm end of Feb / start of March..  Obviously, no matter what it says right now,  what might happen 3 / 4 weeks from now is fantasy land this far out..   Other " players on the field " would also have to be on the same page for a big warm up to occur as well.

That said, once we get to ..and past... ~roughly~ Valentine's Day here,  opportunities for frosty / freeze-y mornings quickly fade out.  Yes, we've seen a few mornings here and there that reach 33, 32, or even colder in Late Feb / earliest March,  but, like i say every year, an extended episodes of such cold, that late, is rare..  Prevailing reality is  " Warmer is the way, the further from Feb. 14 / 15th you get.. "  No, not every year follows that " rule ", but this year doesn't look like ..uhh, last year..  Not even in the least..

Aside from this past week, overall, it has been mild ..and dry  thus far this winter here.  I don't see that flipping dramatically for what is left of the season.  Anything can happen of course ..so, ..all cards will remain laid out on the table, for now,  ..so to say.

If anything, Nor. Cal may be where it stays wet longer next month. Even there, it looks reasonably mild, temps - wise.. 


We'll see where we're at on the 15th..

On another note,  Bye Bye El Nino..  Hello La Nina?  by the summer??.. 

Cool pocket on the ETA chart is only getting more established, and ready to cut off the last, big area of strongly Positive SST anomalies to it's east.



While other, bigger factors play into the outcome too, for a better shot at avoiding another abysmal Monsoon season ahead, i'd like to see the ENSO " trend " in the green area, headed south, to the left of where it may be around April 15th.

As you see, Data hasn't been updated since Monday for some reason.. Regardless, can see that this cycle has peaked, and the down hill trend, perhaps a rapid one,  is about to begin.

[sandgroper]

Currently a very pleasant 26c heading for a mild 28c. Don't think I'd like to be in Guildford UK at the moment.

[Than]

21 C / 70F here today! Insane! It was a lovely day. Tomorrow will be less warm but still warm enough (15C - 60 F). Then Sunday the beast is coming...

My tropical plants are all outside 24 hours, enjoying the warmth and the sun. Except for a couple of seedlings that I bring inside and put under grow lights in the evening, hoping that may make them grow a bit faster..

[Arecaceus]

Yet another cold day with -3°C last night. But the temperature dropped only until midnight and rose again from then on. Woke up to -1°C this morning. But it wasn't too bad as still not all snow has melted and we went up with positive temperatures during the day. Weather already starts to change and over the weekend the trend completely turns. 🧐

[GottmitAlex]

Jan 19, 2024

24c.    Very nice 

[Silas_Sancona]

Another perfect Friday afternoon, wavering between 73 and 76F under Cirrus - filled skies.. 74F as we close in on 5PM.  Due to the clouds, came close, but no neighborhood 80's today..

Regardless,  Perfect, region - wide as well. 

More clouds tomorrow, but hangin' in the low 70s.. Rain returns starting on Sunday.   ..Then back to the 70s by the end of next week.. 

Can't beat that forecast as January wraps up.


























3 -4 week thoughts from the CPC are out ..We'll see how well the actual weather follows.  As mentioned yesterday, some showers, some sun ..Doesn't look cold , or all that wet ..here at least as we enter the last month of " Winter ". 



 

[sandgroper]

Currently 24c at 9.00am heading for a sunny top of 33c.  A beautiful morning at the beach, I got there for sunrise, a perfect day.

[SeanK]

Landed at 16°F this morning. Better than the 12° predicted by NWS.

[Silas_Sancona]

A pretty nice 58F ..for January 19th.. at 9:07PM, as we await the rain..

Showery / Wet / Good soaking - by Desert standards-  kinda' few days ahead, but not too bad otherwise, despite the couple days in the high 50s suggested.

Perhaps a foggy start to hump day, and Thursday next week?  ...as the rain clears out / ground starts to dry out?   As long as things don't change :  Mild middle,  Warm'aah next weekend. = Not too shabby final weekend of January.


Sun comes up earlier, each day, from tomorrow forward..  Welcome back, longer days



Watching for the possibility of another cool- ish wave sometime after the start of the Feb..  Has been trying to slide into some of the model runs over the last 48 hours anyway.. We'll see.

[Palmensammler]

Temperatures are crazy here. For the last night's we had frost down to -8,3°C/17°F with daytime temps close to 0°C./32°F.  Forecast for the next days says 10°C/50°F during daytime and rain and 5°C./41°F during nighttime.

All the snow will melt away fast 😫 

Eckhard 

Edited January 21 by Palmensammler

[Foxpalms]

Min of 41f/5c last night with 57% humidity. The high today is right now at 9.20pm with the temperature continuing to rise. It's currently 56f/13.3c with 77% humidity. 

[Arecaceus]

Finally that Atlantic breeze is back... and I'm loving it! 🥰

[Palm Sundae]

Rainy Monday off to a good start here on Sunday with over a tenth of an inch and more coming... Only downside is it's been gloomy all day and will stay that way for another couple days+.

The expected .5 - 1.0" for the few days has grown to 1.0 - 1.25" and chances showing up again just after the start of Feb, with plenty of "snowbird weather" in between.

Edited January 22 by Palm Sundae

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Palm Sundae said:

Rainy Monday off to a good start here on Sunday with over a tenth of an inch and more coming... Only downside is it's been gloomy all day and will stay that way for another couple days+.

The expected .5 - 1.0" for the few days has grown to 1.0 - 1.25" and chances showing up again just after the start of Feb, with plenty of "snowbird weather" in between.

Quite the bust ..compared to the " forecast " .15 - .25" 🤣  We'll see if tomorrow makes up for it.   Not too bad otherwise..



" Snowbirds " could be shivering again by the 6th of next month -if this sticks. We'll see what the 00Z thinks.  ..If so, Hopefully it scares them away ..for the rest of the year.

[UK_Palms]

I have been woken up from the gale force winds as storm Isha lashes us. We have had a quick transition from freezing cold arctic air to very mild but stormy Atlantic conditions. The whole of the country is under a wind advisory warning as the storm passes through.

It’s currently +13C / 55F at 3am in London. A few places are around 14C / 57F.

 

Winds gusts have reached 168mph at the mountain resort of Glencoe in Scotland. The Met Office station at Cairnwell has also reported 110mph gusts for the past 4 hours now.

 

These are the highest gusts at low level sites, so far at least. I have had about 45-50mph gusts here in my inland location.

I guess that is the price you pay to have some very mild weather in mid-winter at this northern latitude… 🙄

Edited January 22 by UK_Palms

[Palm Sundae]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Quite the bust ..compared to the " forecast " .15 - .25" 🤣  We'll see if tomorrow makes up for it.   Not too bad otherwise..

Yeah about that... we got a bit more than expected after my post... so between .25 and .30 for the day. Getting at least an inch total over the few days is looking pretty likely now.

[Arecaceus]

All snow is finally gone and we already had a high of 13°C before noon today. The low this night was still only 5°C. So far fairly windy with only a few stormy gusts. Mostly sunny and cloudy but it hailed for a moment. Still can't do a full damage assessment of the freeze but one small W. robusta is completely fried as are the leaves of an Acacia and a E. cypellocarpa seedling. 🌡️

[Foxpalms]

@UK_Palms The wind has calmed down here now. There's only a light breeze at the moment, but every few minutes or so there will be a stronger gust of wind. It's also the middle of January and a good amount of the deciduous trees are already putting out green leaves in central London.

[SeanK]

On 1/21/2024 at 6:43 AM, Palmensammler said:

Temperatures are crazy here. For the last night's we had frost down to -8,3°C/17°F with daytime temps close to 0°C./32°F.  Forecast for the next days says 10°C/50°F during daytime and rain and 5°C./41°F during nighttime.

All the snow will melt away fast 😫 

Eckhard 

Seems like you got leftovers from the US.

[Silas_Sancona]

After quite a humid n' foggy start, " waitin on tha rain " ..as the song goes.. 62F at 1:12PM  under partly to mostly cloudy skies ..A mix of lifted low Stratus, and increasing mid level stuff.. as the storm on it's way, currently drowning San Diego cranks up as it heads almost directly in our direction.. 

Lots of flood / flash flood alerts up, so this storm means business.. Some lightning being detected on Tru View Satellite animation over San D atm too ..Could we see some of that later, as the storm arrives???  We'll see..





Can see the " suggested rainfall totals. We'll see if they actually pan out ..Thinking they may this time.  Anyway, looking like quite a soaker ..Not a bad thing at- all-.



Should clear out by mid week, and gradually get warm 'aah..  Some minor " flies in the ointment " so to say between Wed / and Sat. may keep the possibility for a shower or two around the region as some small disturbances pass by to the north.. Could " slow the roll " on the warm up too..

Since it looks to stay mild ..with quite a bit of moisture lingering, at least until Friday or so ..pretty good chance of some really foggy starts after this storm heads east.

Warm up continues over the weekend and headed into next week ..As it is looking right now at least..

What happens beyond the current forecast period??  We'll have to wait  n' see.. 'Nother round of rain is suggested by the longer range shortly after the 1st ..but could hold off until after the 5-7th ..or not amount to anything more than some scattered light showers.  Cooler stuff??  We'll see how that evolves - ..or doesn't.. too.

For now, time to enjoy a good desert soaker..  ..and maybe a rare, winter season light show.. Tonight ..and / or tomorrow

[Silas_Sancona]

A grey and drippy start to your Tuesday around the desert as showers continue ..At least from roughly Phoenix to Mesa and points north and east.  Clearer and drier -for now- to our south and west.  53F here atm ( 10:37AM ) , mid / upper 50s ..close to 60F where more sun is poking through to the south / southwest of town.

Low responsible for a nice soaking overnight is centered somewhere nearby ( Can kind of see the " spin " on the morning Sat. animation )  and expected to wander east ..and / or northeast through the rest of the day..



Biggest forecast " what if-s " today will revolve around who will get any Isolated Thunderstorm activity that may form in the cold pool under the Low pressure area..  General rule of thumb is areas that are clear / clear-er now will have the best opportunity simply due to more opportunity for surface heating..  Current forecast thinking follows that thought ..keeping the best chances for storms to our west and south.  That said, i won't be surprised if a few storms / heavier showers pass over the area ..East Valley neighborhoods at least, esp if we can break out of the clouds a bit within the next couple hours.

That said, Orographic lift over the mountains to the north / east of town can enhance development too.  We'll see.  regardless, while the wide spread rains will be moving on, any stronger convective showers / storms can add another good dump of rain where ever they pass over.

Storm clears out  ..or skies should turn more partly cloudy  at least overnight / tomorrow..  As wet, humid, and mild as it is ( even though we'll likely not break 60F today ) i fully anticipate lots of  fog tomorrow morning, esp. if there is a several hour break in cloud cover overnight / around dawn tomorrow morning.

Clouds lingering, or less,  low to mid 60s tomorrow.  Upward, from there.

Rainfall totals across the Valley / Tucson, and the Cen. Borderlands as of 10AM. using data from both the Maricopa Co. Flood Control District, Pima Co. F.C.D. and Rainlog.org.  Some totals may be similar between all 3 info. sources, though, ..esp in Tucson / areas south of there, i think data from at least some of the Rainlog.org gauges are not used by Pima Co.'s F.C.D. ..Could be wrong of course. No worries..

Maricopa F.C.D. Data:






Pima Co. F.C.D. Data:








Rainlog.org Data:







We'll look at " final " totals later..

In general, pretty much everyone got a decent to good, ...and ever- welcome... soaking..  Adding in some warmth on the way,  plus the potential for some more " mild " rain later ( later next week, as it appears right now ..and more warmth beyond < Only gets warmer from Feb. forward > ) = perfect conditions for all the spring blooming stuff to come.

On a side note:  YES, lol ..Fully aware this is fantasy - land ..and from a source i place the least amount of faith in  but.. Since it will arrive sooner, rather than later..

...I see you, April.. 🙃 ...How bout we push those 90's to the 1st, just for fun, haha..




 

Edited January 23 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[UK_Palms]

13.7C / 56F at midnight here tonight. Pretty balmy but also quite windy. Amongst the mildest of midwinter nights that I can remember. 

It is currently 14C / 57F at midnight in central London.

 

My nearest official Met Office station, Wisley, is reporting 13.5C / 56F at midnight.

 

Statistically, the 23rd of January is supposed to be the coldest day in the UK, or at least for the CET (Central England Temperature) series of records.

However central England, Wales and northern Ireland have reached about 60F today. At least 15.6C / 61F was recorded on an official Met Office station.  During mid-winter and on the coldest day/night on average.

 

The longer range forecast looks alright into February as well. Hopefully it doesn’t change much!

 

Edited January 24 by UK_Palms

[Palm Sundae]

On 1/21/2024 at 9:49 PM, Palm Sundae said:

... we got a bit more than expected after my post... so between .25 and .30 for the day. Getting at least an inch total over the few days is looking pretty likely now.

More than likely with the final total for the three days topping just over 1.5", above expectations and a 'very wet month' running about double an average January. More rain may be coming at the start of February with a wet week possible. In between and starting this weekend is Snowbird Weather (tm) with temps ranging 70's/40's.

[Silas_Sancona]

Hovering between 56-58F as some post- storm low cloudiness hangs tough, but starts to break up / clear out. While cloudy, " Dense " fog - related issues around the region were mainly confined to areas west / southwest of the valley this morning..

Increasing high clouds  moving in from the west should help scour out whats left of the low stuff through the rest of the day..  which should allow temps. to reach the forecast lower 60s.

One more morning " in the fog " possible tomorrow, before things really dry out ..and really warm up..  Storm that will help usher in drier air will stay too far to the north as it passes to offer up more than maybe a quick shower in the foothill fringes northeast of the Valley..  Smooth sailing beyond that.

Final rainfall totals for this week's rain event across the Valley, Tucson ..and the Cen. Borderlands, via the same data resources mentioned yesterday..

As crazy as it sounds, Phoenix ..At Sky Harbour, broke their daily rainfall record ..A measly  0.40".  Old record was 0.25", recorded in 1967.  After the crazy flooding in / Around San Diego 24 hours earlier, it's amazing 0.40" would be considered a record, lol..  Rest of the valley averaged 0.69" w/ numerous spots seeing over 1".   Not Bad.    Anyway...

Maricopa Co. F.C.D.:






Pima Co. F.C.D.:








Rainlog.org data:

[Silas_Sancona]

Far nicer day underway on this final Thursday in January..  Yesterday was dry,  but murky.. Bright blue partly cloudy skies and lots of low to mid 60s around town..  May add a few degs. onto the days highs before some clouds slide by.. Little cooler further south where more clouds have persisted..

           






Quick moving ..whatever the heck it is.. disturbance  sliding southeast just north of the Rim may trigger a light shower or two in parts of the valley before sunset as it heads east.. Chances are however,  most areas won't see a drop.

Some fog-related trouble possible again tomorrow morning, but otherwise ...nothin but sunshine on the way for the final Friday / weekend of the month.  Stretch of Mid / upper 70s ( likely more neighborhood 80's ) still on tap as January ends and the final month of " winter " gets underway..

That said, as it looks right now, 1st 10 -15 days of the coming month is looking WET ..with maybe a final shot of chill -for a couple days at least-  mixed in at some point.. Nothing crazy, but won't be surprised to see an upper 30 or two tossed into the forecast on a couple mornings before the 15th.  We'll see what happens.

 

[WSimpson]

My current temperature is 71F today on 1/26/2024 . I'm 20  degrees above my average high , and no rain , for a little while anyway  . 

Nice ! 

Will

[Palm Sundae]

Clearing up from the storm systems that came through.

Snowbird Weather (tm) starting tomorrow through the end of the month, 70's/40's.

Feb starts out with what looks like another 1" plus of rain with rain probable for the first 7 days. How much and how often TBD. Looking forward to Spring starting sometime in the few weeks after.

[Silas_Sancona]

62 at 5:57PM as the sun sets on a pretty nice Friday afternoon..  Excellent weekend inbound.  Even better finish as January wraps up.. Then?



Rain on the way, and a bit cooler for sure next weekend..  Just how much rain?.. Tough to say this far out but could definitely be an interesting two weeks ahead if some of the more aggressive model output over the past couple days pans out ...and not just here in the desert. 

We'll see how things are looking as we get closer to next Thursday.

For now, Sun is out ..enjoy it.

On an " That's interesting " side note:  How about 80F, in Washington D.C.  ..In January..   Won't last long.. 

Aside from some storminess in the short term back there ...As i've mentioned before, " Take your lumps now ..or wait -anxiously perhaps-  to see when and where the lumps might be delt later.. "  Always happy to be first in line..

Edited January 27 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[sandgroper]

Currently 27c at 11.00am heading for a pleasant, sunny top of 33c.

[Paradise Found]

Another Pineapple Express coming. This is like number 4  high 62 low 58.  February will be dryer and less rain.  Daffodils are way up and will be blooming in another week.  

[UK_Palms]

Sick of this winter weather now here. It can F*ck off entirely tbh. Need spring to arrive ASAP. Need some proper wamth with 18C / 64F temps to get here... right now the outlook is errrr.... meh... London isn't too far off the Perth, WA winter regime, but still not great either. It could be a LOT colder, but also a LOT warmer too...

 

16C / 61F highs in some places on Sunday, apparently...

 

Major dust/sand imports from the Sahara as sand is propelled in our direction...

 

Let's do it.. hopefully these long range forecasts come to fruition with 20C / 68F temps come mid-February.. although I doubt it will happen... time will tell...

Edited January 28 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

Foehn effect in Scotland has helped massively increase the temps. 68f/20c with 28% humidity at 58N! A new record high for Jan.

Edited January 28 by Foxpalms

[sandgroper]

10 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Sick of this winter weather now here. It can F*ck off entirely tbh. Need spring to arrive ASAP. Need some proper wamth with 18C / 64F temps to get here... right now the outlook is errrr.... meh... London isn't too far off the Perth, WA winter regime, but still not great either. It could be a LOT colder, but also a LOT warmer too...

 

16C / 61F highs in some places on Sunday, apparently...

 

Major dust/sand imports from the Sahara as sand is propelled in our direction...

 

Let's do it.. hopefully these long range forecasts come to fruition with 20C / 68F temps come mid-February.. although I doubt it will happen... time will tell...

Sorry mate but London is a long way off Perths winter temps.

[Foxpalms]

24 minutes ago, sandgroper said:

Sorry mate but London is a long way off Perths winter temps.

The next week seems similar to winter weather in Melbourne. For it to be like Perth the highs would have to be around 18c.

[sandgroper]

1 hour ago, Foxpalms said:

The next week seems similar to winter weather in Melbourne. For it to be like Perth the highs would have to be around 18c.

Yes, that's a much more accurate assessment mate.

[Silas_Sancona]

66F and sunny at 10AM on the final Sunday of the month ..On the way to somewhere in the upper 70s ..maybe crackin' 80F??? later?. 



If not this afternoon, more opportunities for reaching the first " official " 80F reading(s) of '24 before Thursday..   Should be plenty of 80 -80+F readings in the neighborhood between now and then regardless.

Rest of the forecast lookin' ..reasonable,  for now at least, beyond Thursday..  No complaints.

[SeanK]

7°C today. We're in for a very average week.

[Paradise Found]

On 1/27/2024 at 8:53 AM, Paradise Found said:

Another Pineapple Express coming. This is like number 4  high 62 low 58.  February will be dryer and less rain.  Daffodils are way up and will be blooming in another week.  

 63f today 65f tomorrow and no rain.  

Edited January 29 by Paradise Found

[GottmitAlex]

Currently 23C (7:00pm pst, 1/28/24)

We hit 30c today.

Low was 13c