What is your current yard temperature?

[UK_Palms]

10.4C / 51F at 3am here tonight. The minimum will be staying in the double figures centigrade (°C), again.

The highest temperature recorded on Sunday by a Met Office station was 19.6C / 67F at Kinlochewe in western Scotland up at 58N latitude.

When I took some screenshots of the temps, the maximums had already peaked and were already on the decline.

Some unofficial stations recorded up to 20.5C / 69.3F… almost breaking the 70F barrier in mid-winter. 

 

A lack of coverage in that sparsely populated area of Scotland likely means that higher temps were missed. There would have been even more 20-21C readings.

Also the Saharan sand is really making itself known in places as it passes over...

 

The sand/dust has reached Scotland too.

Edited January 29 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

Some Met Office stations only report their figures every 24 hours, meaning we have to wait until 09:00 the following day to find out the maxima. This was the case with the Met Office station at Achfary, which has since reported a new January record max of 19.9C / 68F for yesterday. Just shy of the 20C mark, in mid-winter.

 

They appear to have had a wildfire up that way at Lochinver as well it seems. Reports of downed power lines igniting foliage. Usually the fires don’t start up until mid-late February at the earliest.

 

Anyway, only 12.1C / 54F here at 3pm today.

Edited January 29 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

They went from 20c yesterday to 0c this morning. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A perfect start to the end of January, 2024.... 81F and wall to wall Sun..   Plenty o' 80s across the board, region wide,  w/ even a few 84-87F readings scattered around various neighborhoods here in the E. valley currently..  ..Not a bad day in the higher elevation areas ( above 3600ft ) down south across the borderlands either..

#'s around town / region,  as of 2:35PM.












































Great weather hangs on until about Thursday, before the next ..potential soaking.. ensues..



While i won't delve too far into how that pattern change may ..or may not.. play out just yet,  A poster over on Wx west posted various, current  7 and 10 day rainfall total " thoughts ".   Whether or not any of these potential scenarios play out over the coming days,  All i can say is ...for now,   everyone in CA ..and here as well..  should keep an eye on model output very closely..

7 Day totals " thoughts " ..



10 day Totals  " "..



Daniel Swain should have a new post up ..Which i'll add later one up, some time  between today - Wed.  Regardless, looking like a pretty impactful 8-12 day stretch of Wx ahead.

[happypalms]

It was a hot day indeed 

[UK_Palms]

19 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

They went from 20c yesterday to 0c this morning. 

The Met station at Achfary which recorded 19.9C / 68F didn’t go below freezing that night, whereas Kinlochewe went from +19.6C to -0.1C within 18 hours lol. So almost a 20C swing. Then again it is northern Scotland and up at 58N latitude. That is further north than Juneau, Alaska.

 

My maximum temperature yesterday didn’t come until 11:30pm when it reached 13.0C / 56F here. The outlook doesn’t look too bad, but likely turning colder again as we approach mid-February, judging by the models. We definitely aren’t out of the woods yet.

Also, I saw someone post an update of one of the Liverpool CIDP’s up at 53.4N. This is at the same latitude as Edmonton in Canada. It must be approaching 20 foot in height now.

[Arecaceus]

After the cold weather where we even had some snow was very mild, dry and sunny. Temperatures often between 13-15°C. I even recorded 16.4°C on Sunday or Monday. No wind and clear blue skies. Very nice weather. Today it got cloudy but it's supposed to stay dry for now. High today was 13.0°C and the low 8.4°C. ☀️🌡️🥰

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 69F at 6:09 ( PM ) after another day of upper 70s / plenty of neighborhood 80s across the board area - wide..



One more day of perfect " Hints of Spring " warmth  before the first of what may be a few storms over the next 2 weeks rolls in..   ..If it holds, Weekend ahead ..between storms.. should be decent, before the next round o' rain heads our way..

Though suggested in the current Wx U. 10 day, we'll see if we see -any- T- storm activity w/ the next storm. ..Kind of tough to get legit. Thunderstorms, even here,  when the suggested high is only in the low 60s.. but, ..you never know..  Some suggestions a few isolated storms could follow the storm on tap for Thursday  ...but again, not quite into the " window " for spring T- storm activity here just yet..  Personally,  want to see highs on such days reaching into -at least- the lower 70s to generate reasonable levels of C.A.P. E.  ..We'll see though..  February is only 29 days long ..which will fly by.. and we'll be within that ideal  " window "  by the start of March ...And the start of Meteorological Spring.  

By the time the 29th has arrived, sun will rise before 6:55AM  ..and be setting close to 6:30PM.  Countdown to the first 100F of '24 begins after that..

[Chester B]

A beautiful sunny day today high around 71F/22C.  Warmer tomorrow.  A guy could get used to this sort of "winter" weather.

[sandgroper]

Currently a warm 42c at 1.00pm.

Edited January 31 by sandgroper

[Arecaceus]

4 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Currently a warm 42c at 1.00pm.

Holy! What was the ultimate high?

[sandgroper]

28 minutes ago, Hortulanus said:

Holy! What was the ultimate high?

Not too sure mate but I wouldn't think it got much warmer than that. It's just a normal Perth summer,  always makes me wonder why I chose welding as a profession when I live in Western Australia. I always reach the same conclusion,  I'm an idiot!

[Arecaceus]

1 hour ago, sandgroper said:

Not too sure mate but I wouldn't think it got much warmer than that. It's just a normal Perth summer,  always makes me wonder why I chose welding as a profession when I live in Western Australia. I always reach the same conclusion,  I'm an idiot!

😂😂😂 I didn't know Perth is normally that hot. I would have guessed those are more inland temperatures. I used to work as a gardener because I like it so much... well guess what I had to plug weeds for 8 hours even under the scorching summer sun and the windy cold winter rain. Idk for some reason they didn't let me decide when to work like I used to when it was only a hobby... 🫢😂😂

[Foxpalms]

1 hour ago, Hortulanus said:

😂😂😂 I didn't know Perth is normally that hot.  

I think it depends on the wind there. When the winds come from the west it looks to be high 20s low 30s, however when the wind is coming from the east (inland) there's hundreds of miles of hot arid landmass to heat up the air. Perth would be the same latitude equivalent to northern Africa at 32N.

[Arecaceus]

4 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

I think it depends on the wind there. When the winds come from the west it looks to be high 20s low 30s, however when the wind is coming from the east (inland) there's hundreds of miles of hot arid landmass to heat up the air. Perth would be the same latitude equivalent to northern Africa at 32N.

That would make sense. But wouldn't that apply for Sydney as well then?

[sandgroper]

4 hours ago, Arecaceus said:

That would make sense. But wouldn't that apply for Sydney as well then?

Sydney cab get pretty warm too.  There are a few differences between the east and west coast of Australia which contribute to differences in climate. In W.A. when a high pressure system moves into the Great Australian Bight it blows hot air from the north and east out towards the coast, Perth is situated on the edge of a desert, and this mostly happens during the warm months of the year.  Any temperature in January and February with a "2" in front of it is always welcome.

[sandgroper]

27c at 6.30am heading for a forecast top of 41c.

[Silas_Sancona]

A balmy 76F at 5:30PM as the clouds start to roll in after one final day in the low 80s  ..on the final day of January..  BIG changes inbound ..after maybe reaching the mid 70's tomorrow, on the first day of February, ..before the first big rain arrives.

#'s from around the region, as of 2:45PM. Beautiful everywhere. Hope many were out enjoying it. :























....I think a station needs to be re calibrated, lol..





























As far as the rainy forecast ahead is concerned,  ..Without any doubt,  ...a very interesting forecast ahead.. Waiting to see what tonight's 00Z GFS has to say but, ..after eyeballing each run as they've come in -since Monday-,  all i can say is  ....It would be wise ...very wise.. to pay close attention to  any  flood products that may be issued in the coming days... 

Potential Rainfall totals of 2 - 4" are impressive enough here,   just a bit eye popping,  perhaps..  for S. Cal,  ...Esp. if any of the really bullish model run " thoughts " pan out. 

For those who might not have read through it, Danial Swain touched on the " extreme possibilities " particularly for Los Angeles, in his last blog post a few days ago, here: https://weatherwest.com/
 

Here's a couple " thoughts " on the subject  via Pivotal WX:   Btw,  ECMWF on both Pivotal and Tidbits  thoughts are similar,  though the " longer " model runs it generates, only go out 240 hours, vs the GFS which extend out to 380 hours. 

Regardless, That's A LOT of rain for S. Cal, within  a 5-10 day window..   Yes, the forecast could blow itself up to pieces,  but, ..i really don't think it will this time.  We'll see of course.  Be prepared regardless.  You've-  been-  advised..  Bay Area will get slammed as well, but, ..we're used to a ton of rain in these setups..

Last night's 00Z    ...Yes, you're seeing that right ( for the L.A. area )




Today's 06Z



...12Z



and 18Z



...Pick your deluge, Ready the Arc, ...And the wubbah' Duckies..  'Iss gonna rain...  Fingers crossed the rain hangs around long enough to completely rain out the annual Golf thingy here next week... 🙏

[sandgroper]

Well BOM got it a bit wrong today, we finished up with 45c as a maximum temperature, a tad warmer than their forecast of 41c. Tomorrow they're forecasting a top of 40c before we get a few cooler days over the weekend which will be nice.

[SeanK]

On 1/29/2024 at 5:25 PM, Silas_Sancona said:

A perfect start to the end of January, 2024.... 81F and wall to wall Sun..   Plenty o' 80s across the board, region wide,  w/ even a few 84-87F readings scattered around various neighborhoods here in the E. valley currently..  ..Not a bad day in the higher elevation areas ( above 3600ft ) down south across the borderlands either..

#'s around town / region,  as of 2:35PM.












































Great weather hangs on until about Thursday, before the next ..potential soaking.. ensues..



While i won't delve too far into how that pattern change may ..or may not.. play out just yet,  A poster over on Wx west posted various, current  7 and 10 day rainfall total " thoughts ".   Whether or not any of these potential scenarios play out over the coming days,  All i can say is ...for now,   everyone in CA ..and here as well..  should keep an eye on model output very closely..

7 Day totals " thoughts " ..



10 day Totals  " "..



Daniel Swain should have a new post up ..Which i'll add later one up, some time  between today - Wed.  Regardless, looking like a pretty impactful 8-12 day stretch of Wx ahead.

Hopefully keeps filling Lakes Mead and Powell.

[Palm Sundae]

14 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

...Pick your deluge, Ready the Arc, ...And the wubbah' Duckies..  'Iss gonna rain...  Fingers crossed the rain hangs around long enough to completely rain out the annual Golf thingy here next week... 🙏

Looking at a half inch or so tonight. Maybe another inch through the "golf thingy" but while that's a lot already for Feb it ain't so much for golf, just keeps the grass green.

Enjoying the last day of perfect "Snowbird Weather" but with the rain coming later in the evening/overnight instead of the daytime it still looks pretty nice through the weekend.

[Silas_Sancona]

Well folks, we managed to eek out one more day at the top of the 70s under mainly clear skies. A bit breezy and a touch humid as well. Changing fast as the afternoon closes out, and clouds increase..  75F at 3:54PM after reaching 78..  Lots of rain ..and perhaps some rumbles on the way .. then breaking, as the week closes out.  Can we beat the " suggested potential for .89" tonight?  We'll see.  Underground's rainfall " thoughts " haven't fallen below .74" all day.. So, ..We'll see.




You know the routine... #s from today, across the region, ..As of the 2:30PM time frame.




















































After the break over the weekend, If the rain and possible ⛈️ ( 🤞🤞 ) doesn't send 'em packin', ...🤞,    hopefully there's lots of this next week..  Pond Scum, Duck " stuff ",  and Fertilizer runoff  ..Sounds delicious..       Chase the Golfers away,  but get the weather settled into the perfect column as spring training games begin?..  May it happen.







As far as what this rainy stretch might do for the lakes?   Well see of course, but,  Currently suggested snowfall totals for the next week or two might add a few feet perhaps, ..but won't fill em' up. Need a lot more snowfall in the upper basin over several more years than what is currently forecast. 

If what the longer term forecast thoughts are seeing atm are even half  correct,  things look to dry out / stay dry -ish,  region- wide ( ..and warm up again, perhaps )  after mid- month. 

From there forward, it will only get warmer,  and drier ( Unless something crazy occurs of course )  ..which is typical as we head into March and Spring. 


Today's 18Z suggested 10: 1 Snowfall equivalent forecast totals:





 Assumed  Snowfall depth, at the end of the 18Z model run:   With this forecast tool, you can see how much snowfall accumulates, and melts between snowfall events.. Some of the melt will get into the lakes of course, but, that's pretty paltry looking for ..mid Feb.  ..if you want to fill both lakes, ..and have a raging CO. River at least, imo.



That said, CA reservoirs should come out lookin pretty good, and buy folks out there a little more time. Any water abusers should still be fined out the $$$$$$$.......... regardless.



On a side note,   Powell may be drained ..or greatly reduced, and returned to it's formal glory in the not to terribly far future if science cancels out long held and miss - guided assumptions.. A drier Southwestern N. America reality is we can't have both lakes.. so one has to go. 

Live in the Southwest? ..Plant what will live here w/ out over using a never - was - 100% reliable resource.  Want a water intensive landscape ..or to be a slave to a boring patch of grass? ..Lots of "greener" pastures to our east to choose from ... and enjoy.

  Is,  ..what it is  ..no matter how much some might try to fight it. 



 

[Than]

We hit 0.1 C last night here, 32F. 13 C this afternoon though. Last night was still and no frost. Let's see if my schizopetalus will be OK as well as my plumerias and baby archontophoenix 

[Palm Sundae]

On 2/1/2024 at 8:32 AM, Palm Sundae said:

Looking at a half inch or so tonight. Maybe another inch through the "golf thingy" but while that's a lot already for Feb it ain't so much for golf, just keeps the grass green.

Enjoying the last day of perfect "Snowbird Weather" but with the rain coming later in the evening/overnight instead of the daytime it still looks pretty nice through the weekend.

Just over a half inch, bingo. Cooler but very pleasant 60's/40's for the next week - might not quite get to 60 today with the cloud cover.

The forecast for rain for the "golf thingy" has slipped down to the half inch range. Getting an inch total over the first 10 days would still be nice, slightly more than the average for the entire month of Feb (more than any average month other than August for that matter.)

Edited February 2 by Palm Sundae

[Silas_Sancona]

A partly ..to mostly.. cloudy start to your first Friday in February.. 55F  at 9:55AM, on the way to somewhere in the lower 60s later ..depending on cloud cover / and showers / storms? that decide to flare up later.

Weekend looking to be within the ballpark of seasonal for the first week in Feb. in the Desert.  We'll see about the rain / storm potential ahead for the middle of next week.



  For the moment, GFS has really backed off it's suggested rainfall totals, esp. in S. Cal. 00Z.   ECMWF, the longer of the two " current " ECMWF runs, is still holding onto the more bullish rainfall total forecasts, for now at least ..though it too has backed down a little.  We'll see if it changes it's choon later today..

Rainfall totals from last night weren't bad, though i definitely did not meet or beat the suggested forecast ...Then again, not too far off either, esp. using Rainlog.org. data.  Winners this time around were the east side of Mesa, Apache Junction, and the 'Sups ..Right where i'd expected some of the higher totals to fall ( Though less than the 1.5 - 2.0" suggested earlier ) Regardless, another pretty decent soaking.  Follow it with a mild, sunny break, ..sum' more rain, ..and another mild break and ...you end up with very happy plants..  No complaints.

Maricopa Co. FCD:







Pima Co. FCD:





Rainlog.org.
















On a side note,  the fat furry rat apparently did not see his shadow this morning after being yoinked out of his hole in a silly, human inspired " tradition " ..so.. An early start to spring perhaps?   Not reliable of course, and some forecasts seem to think " winter " may hang around the Southwest  ..parts of it at least, for a few more weeks.  So....

Not sure i believe that ..but don't think we'll jump headlong into extended stretch of  early " spring heat "  just yet either  ...though i myself favor a lean,  in that direction, over a lean in the cooler / chillier " resembling - last - year " direction as we get past mid - Feb.  If anywhere may hang onto winter a touch longer here across the S.W.?  i really think it will be parts of N. Cal. ..more from the " above average potential for rains " side o the coin,  rather than there being any significant cold spells..  

We'll see what this week's 3-4 week outlook has to say later..



For now, as the week ends,  enjoy this drone level footage of CA water officials opening the spillway on lake Oroville, as the next big storm moves in..    Ain't that Niiccee..

https://news.yahoo.com/water-officials-open-oroville-dam-220334011.html

 

[sandgroper]

A beautiful morning at the beach heading for a welcome mild top of 27c before warming up again to the low forties by next weekend. 

[UK_Palms]

14.1C / 57F at 2pm here. Similar to yesterday’s maximum.

2pm temps around Europe…

The nights have been very mild with nighttime minimums staying above 11C / 52F for me the past two nights.

 

Colder arctic air is going to try and push in later next week. It remains to be seen just how cold it gets, but probably nothing much for southern England. The ‘last hoorah’ of winter hopefully.

 

Edited February 4 by UK_Palms

[Than]

Warm break here, maximum will be 18 C (65 F) tomorrow, sunny and still, and it's going to be like that for at least a week! 😎

I can't wait to bring all my sensitive babies outside tomorrow to soak the sun.

[Paradise Found]

The warmest temp in January was 65f.  
Coldest night was 16-17f. 
spring bulbs are coming up fast now since February is much warmer this year.  
Inside plants are growing good 👍 under grow lights some are blooming like abutilon and aloe.  

[Foxpalms]

The last few days have been 14c around 57f with the lows being 11.5c/52.5f.  Lots of cordylines and eucalyptus are putting out seeds. A few of my chamaedorea are sending out flowers.

[Foxpalms]

The high was 77.6f/25.3c with 16% humidity. The max UV index was a 6. Unlike in London the sun here has some strength to it at 31N.

 

 

Edited February 5 by Foxpalms

[Silas_Sancona]

Warm, cloudy, a touch humid ..and ..waiting for the rain..  A stark contrast to the non stop on going rainfall across parts of S. Cal atm.. 74F atm ( 3:55PM ) after touching 77F ~briefly~ about an hour ago..  All under mostly cloudy skies thru mos of the day..

#'s from around town / region.. As of just past 3PM.































Downhill from now forward as the storm slung over southern California finally starts heading east.  Mild night ahead before the rains set in..  Flood watches hoisted here for tomorrow, but don' think we'll have issues in most areas around town at least.. Foothill areas, which could see upwards of 2", might experience some minor flood - related issues. 

More " short-wave " energy rotating through the area may keep the showers ...and possible T-storm activity... going throughout the rest of the week..  Poor, Mother Nature - defeated, soon to be soaked Golfers...  Plants are lovin' it regardless.





As it looks right now,  Cools off, with the potential for a few more nights in the high 30s toward the end of the week.   Should??  catch another mild break as next week approaches, before maybe one last " bigger " round of rain rolls through, if it does later    ..before things may start to slow down -storm wise-.. At least here.  We'll see. 

..Some uncertainties in the current longer range forecast " thoughts " CFS Weeklys want to slow things down / eventually dry things out ( and start a gradual ..but nice.. extended warm up ) as late Feb approaches/ passes,   while some other model output thoughts ( ECMWF Weeklys ) want to keep the shower opportunities / cool-ish weather goin' into the start of March..  Today's CPC 10 and 14 day thoughts  are a mixed bag, at least as it relates to rainfall.. 

I myself think, ..the next two weeks will end up being about as good as it will get for this side of " winter 23/ 24 " ..though you can never completely shut out -any- opportunities for showers going into mid - March..  so....  Enjoying it while it lasts  cuz i'm sure we'll go from mild to " ...Hand on the oven thermostat, ready to start turning it -up- " once the pattern flips.  

Again, we'll see.

At some point, things will start settling down as the currently Active Phase of the MJO we're currently progressing through transitions to a more inactive phase, which would take the wind out of storm energy enhanced by a strong Jetsream that is currently slung across the Pacific and aimed right at / over S. CA. and AZ atm.




On a side note, some pretty impressive rainfall records falling just a couple mountain ranges to the west, while enjoying a very nice Monday afternoon here..  More sun today?  Pretty sure we would have reached the low / lower 80s.. They'll be back  -soon enough..


 

[UK_Palms]

11.3C / 52F at 03:00am here. Expecting about 14-15C / 58F tomorrow before a brief drop off in temps later this week.

The clock is ticking on winter now. There is going to need to be an SSW event and major BFTE type scenario to produce a proper freeze at this point moving forward. Days are getting longer and sunlight is getting stronger. The lower hPa’s later this week don’t look to have the same effect that they had back in early January.

 

Some fairly warm charts are appearing now including the ECMWF (Euro) operational, which only goes out 10 days...

 

This is 11-12 days out on one of the GFS perturbations, showing a southerly plume again...

Edited February 6 by UK_Palms

[sandgroper]

Another warm week ahead, looking forward to the cooler months.

[Palm Sundae]

Colin McCarthy

 

@US_Stormwatch

UCLA has recorded nearly 12 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, a 1 in 1000-year rainfall rainfall event for Westwood. A truly unprecedented storm in modern history for the region as an atmospheric river stalls over the region.

 

Edited February 6 by Palm Sundae

[Palm Sundae]

5 minutes ago, Palm Sundae said:

Colin McCarthy

 

@US_Stormwatch

UCLA has recorded nearly 12 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, a 1 in 1000-year rainfall rainfall event for Westwood. A truly unprecedented storm in modern history for the region as an atmospheric river stalls over the region.

 

Not much going on here. Still looks to be about a half inch of rain over the next few days. Gloomy and overcast.

[Foxpalms]

Low of 48f/9c with a high of 80.1f/26.7c with a UV index of 6. The humidity was 14%. In the city center with all the concrete around it felt warmer than that. 

Edited February 6 by Foxpalms

[Silas_Sancona]

A partly sunny refreshed and slightly cool 53F after some showers over night.. Will we see more showers today, or will the next round of showers wait until tomorrow.. 

One things for sure...  Considering all the rain that has fallen across S. Cal over the past several days,  we got some of it ..but just a drop in the bucket  ..in the areas that saw decent totals at least.. comparatively speaking..  See the totals below..  Definitely did not hold up to earlier forecast thoughts -anywhere- across the deserts however.  Still, another good drink that will only benefit everything going forward.

After what looks like a few cool days,  sun ...and warmth will return after the start of next week  ( as the forecast is looking for now ) Just as soggy Golfers head home.. and the 49'ers take home the trophy   Rooting only for the home team only because K.C. already won.. Hard decision though  ..both are good teams / parts of the country.  K.C. wins it all?  -again-  i'm fine w/ that too. 

Looks like we'll see one last round of sub - 40F lows over the next couple mornings as well.  No worries  ...unless you worry too much about nothin- ..   A few more 36-40F mornings?  Nothing to worry about...



....We'll see when ...or if... there is one final big push of rain before the month ends and a longer term, seasonal  drying trend begins ...even if there are still a few showers hanging around at times thru mid - March.  


Rainfall Totals:   As you can see,  Not bad  ...but far less impressive than what had been suggested earlier on.    Main " Atmospheric River " portion of the overall storm that hammered S. Cal. rapidly passed east through AZ yesterday morning, w/ a majority of the moisture associated w/ it staying aloft / not reaching the ground ..except up in the mountains.

Rain we saw was mostly from the showery / convectively - driven stuff that hit S. Cal overnight Monday / early Tuesday,  that re- developed over S.W. AZ later yesterday afternoon after moving over the mountains east of San Diego.

Maricopa Co FCD:







Pima Co FCD:








Rainlog.Org data: 














 

Edited February 7 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[Foxpalms]

Min of 50f/10c with a high of 79.2f/26.2c. The humidity was 14%. A nice sunny day with a UV index of 6. This morning however I have woken up to clouds, however despite the cloud cover the sun rays coming through clouds are still resulting a UV index of 3 and there's still 2 hours left till the sun is at its strongest.

[DTS]

I forgot how warm 56 feels