What is your current yard temperature?

[Chester B]

6 minutes ago, Paradise Found said:

I was cooking Easter dinner and the humidity shot up to 62% that and the heat I was sweating and then all hell breaks loose.  The smoke alarm went off in kitchen, the kitty went hiding under the bed I ran to open the patio door and then things settle down.  Humidity is down to 58% and the sun is out  very thing is back to normal. 
Stay safe this summer.  

its 80F and 75% humidity right now.  I've been removing tree stumps and lots of digging today so now I feel gross.

[Silas_Sancona]

Much quieter 55F at 10:42AM ..and drier???  day compared to yesterday across the valley after a decent Easter soaking ...and a few out of season weak nocturnal Thunderstorms late last night.

On Satellite, the next 8-10 hours look interesting as the COL that brought California and us a wet Sunday finally centers up over AZ  as it slowly heads east..  Cold Core of it passing overhead + more breaks in the clouds today ..which equals better surface heating (  ...though not quite as good as such a set up could be for the time of year ) = pretty decent chances for -at least- widely scattered storms..

Should be " warmer " today compared to a high stuck in the mid / upper 50s yesterday ..a far cry from the typical 80s expected as April 1st arrives..

Regardless, another ride up the rollercoaster  for the first week of April before another dip / possible showers by the weekend ...depending on how far south the next to last???  storm decides to dig as it passes through the west..  Stays further north?, = warmer /drier vs another round of 60s w/ showers..



As for rainfall from the Easter Soaker? pretty decent ..Rare to see totals like this  this late in the year ...this side of it anyway.

While they didn't update it, by 5pm yesterday, Phoenix, at Sky Harbour, had broken a daily rainfall record going back to 1949.  Can see how much had fallen by this morning on the Maricopa Co. Rainfall data map below.  Rain Log. Org data is offset by a day or so, so rain that fell late last night might not be posted to the site yet.



Can see how the back yard /  rest of the valley / S. AZ did as well on both rainfall total maps.

Maricopa Co. Data:






Rain Log. Org data ..as of yesterday..  Not bad at all...













Looking forward..  As usual,  'Whole lot of " ??'s " ahead.. 

Aside from the weekend storm, if it makes it here,  a quick moving, follow -on system may swirl through the area  ..just in time for the Eclipse..  Would be " Possible storm " #2.

After it, comes a ...potentially  quick ..and big.. warm up..

As mentioned earlier, consistently trough-y pattern in the Pacific of late looks like it settles down a bit after about the 10th, with ..our first potentially significant??  ridge trying to set up over the state / overall west just before / once at mid- month..  ..If you go with hints from both the last 4 of 5 GFS runs / ECMWF AIFS runs.

If thoughts offered by the AIFS pan out,  ..the change from long / drawn out cool- ish ..with a few warmer days tossed in, to suddenly roasting could be quite dramatic..

From this mornings 06Z run:



Several GFS runs also suggesting a warmer pattern ahead but aren't quite as HOT as the AIFS run above ..but do suggest our first potential 2-5 day streak of low to mid 90s arriving by mid - month..

GEFS longer term thoughts ( Goes out to 840 hours ) also suggest an overall drier / warmer ( Above Normal lean Temps ) for AZ ....and most of the West... by around the same time..

...All that said, current 12Z run from the GFS wants to toss another cool trough approaching the west coast by the 17th  ..Is the only run -so far- suggesting that so   ..we'll see..

We all know this atypically cool / wet pattern of late has to end at some point..  The question, for the moment at least, is ..how soon will it get the boot..   Linger ( ..for wayyy too long -like last year) ?  ...or flip, on a dime, to much warmer,  sooner.  We'll know soon enough.



Looking at the GEFS again, ..if the pattern across N. America does shift around a bit as suggested, we'll dry out  while areas to the east may start down a wetter looking pattern that may last thru the start of May.







This includes TX, and the entire eastern half / far southern quarter of Mexico ....where they realllyy need rain..  🤞🤞


Obviously, because anything beyond 4 or 5 days are just thoughts,    take them w/ a side of salt ..and maybe an adult beverage ...Non- Alcoholic for me thanks.. 

[Palm Sundae]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:23 PM, Palm Sundae said:

Waiting on the rain to start overnight and into April Fool's. Looks like between 0.5 and 1.0 - or "enough but not too much" for the yard. Beautiful.

Just a smidge under an inch. A couple 'cool' nights ahead with lows around 40. Snowbird weather otherwise.

[sandgroper]

It's about time we got some rain but it's hard to be unhappy with autumn weather like this. 

[Chester B]

Another windy day with temps a little warmer than forecasted.  Currently sitting at 86F/30C today with low humidity.

[Silas_Sancona]

After a rainy / cool Easter weekend,  a beautiful 72F under wall to wall blue skies and Sunshine...  Should end up somewhere in the mid 70s before sunset.

Next couple days in the 80s before the first to last??? storm rolls into to town by the weekend. How far south it digs as it passes is still up in the air, so, while we might not see any rain, if it stays further north, another brief cool down and some typical Spring breezy-ness is likely.



Weaker tag- a- long storm ..Perhaps the final one  passes through by Tuesday..  Some disagreement on how far south it digs as it passes through as well.. Which will determine how good the view of the Eclipse will be on Monday locally.

Beyond that? ..Things could get interesting..  ..if not down right HOT


Both the GFS and ECMWF AIFS are still on board with a warm up beyond the 10th, though a couple runs of both have slid a passing trough into their forecast thoughts, which would mute a major  warm up a little..

On the other hand, 12Z ECMWF AIFS just finished it's run and ...Yeah, lol.. it's interesting..   Not buyin' it just yet, but watching where this idea goes.

The thought of going from ..one of the coolest / wettest starts to April on record, to ..some serious heat ..in less than 2 weeks ...essentially blowing through a big chunk of " average first days of X readings " would be pretty wild.  ..See the list below..

Avrg first / last dates list: Note that we've yet to cross the 90F threshold so far this year, and ..if it did end up as hot as the map below shows, we'd be exceeding the avrg. first date for anything below 106F by almost a month.  Fun times..



Today's  SIZZLIN'  12Z ECMWF AIFS:  Morning 06Z run was checking in w/ highs reaching the 96-100F range on the 17th ...So the 12Z has bumped them up a bit.



Even if this ..or any other really bullish run this model puts out over the next few days... is over exaggerating the heat suggested by a few deg.  that would still put us at around 100F on the 17th, ..if it pans out.   BIG if   ...but, It's the Desert  ...so you never know.... 


You know the drill   .....Take such a longer range forecast lightly, but keep an eye on it.. We'll see what happens

[UK_Palms]

16.1C / 61F here at 1pm. Not particularly warm, but at least it is dry today and no rain!

It looks like a near record hPa airmass for early April is coming up from Spain this weekend. I am expecting about 21-22C / 70F temps here, although that is nothing exceptional for April. The airmass overhead itself is far more impressive than the temperatures it will generate at ground level.

 

The ECMWF has thrown out some rather insane charts with 21C hPa temps around mid-month. This would probably translate to about 30C / 85F ground temps for London, in mid-April, if it was to happen. The period around mid-month will need watching. 👀

[Silas_Sancona]

A sunny 80F at 11:37AM  ..on our way to ...maybe our first " official " 90F reading of 2K24???  

...If we don't get there today, we will by this time next week  ...As long as the forecast holds....

Before that?  One ( last?? ) cool down on tap for this weekend ..first half anyway..  inc. what will likely be the last sub -45F readings of the year ..this side of '24 anyway..  By next weekend? some low 60s for lows..  Touch late to see sub 45F lows, ..but not unheard of in early April.



Storm passing to our north might bring a shower tomorrow night, or perhaps it stays completely dry ..and maybe a touch breezy.

Next storm passing thru looks drier, down here in the deserts at least.  We'll see how much cloud cover is overhead when the sun gets dimmed..

Heat starts to build beyond that.  For how long?.. we'll have to wait and see.. Thoughts from the GFS? = Chaos  -as usual-  ...while the AIFS is hangin onto the heat thru it's forecast period  ..though the 100F readings suggested earlier have been scrubbed from it's thoughts  ..for now..

Lingering tough-y-ness passing to the north through the forecast period stays even farther north than how it looks on the maps atm?,  a day or two in the 100s could return to the forecast..



Our warm up should also  = a good warm up across the homeland ( California ) as well,  though ...depending on whose thoughts you like more, warm up out there could be more muted  = Boring / warmish. but not  too  warm GFS,  ...or quite toasty ..in more areas  = Progressive AIFS thoughts.

Regardless, just about time to shake off that final vestige of winter 23 / 24, scare off any remaining snow invaders,  and kick the heat up a notch ( ..or 3 ),  which should awaken " Palo Verde Season ",  Get buds on the Saguaro,  ..and kick the Plumerias into gear.. 

Edited April 4 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[Arecaceus]

Very nice weather today! We had our first summer's day with a high of 27.0°C and clear blue skies. Some stations even hit 30°C! More interesting were the relatively high lows this week even under clear skies. Today started out with a low of 14.1°C without cloud coverage. Now that the sun also sets at around 8:30 p.m. the nice time of the year starts feeling closer as well. Everything is green by now which I feel like is a little bit early. 😍☀️🌡️

[Silas_Sancona]

After a breezy ..n' slightly hazy ( and chilly, for April )  Friday,  a cool- ish, ...but otherwise perfect...  Saturday.  61F at 11:36AM, on the way to somewhere in the upper 60s / 70 by 4PM.  Climb further out of the hole tomorrow and Monday.. 

One more weak storm passing thru the area on Mon / early Tues. to go before ...the race to the 100's begins.. 

It might bring some spit, but stays dry otherwise.  We'll see what cloud cover looks like for the Eclipse time frame once on Monday's door step.




Still some flip flopping on just how quickly the heat sets in going forward w/ various model runs split between a solution where a more sustained and blocking ridge sets up overhead / CA,  or a set up that features a ridge that gets squished a little at times as some weak disturbances continue to pass through the west to the north, which might keep temps from getting too hot, too fast.. For now at least..

Should stay in the lower / mid 80s -at least- thru the forecast period  if the overall"  strong, but flexible around the edges " ridge set up pans out regardless..

" Stronger blocks everything " kind of ridge option anchors in?  those 100F readings tossed around at times could easily return to the forecast at some point before April closes out.

After one more cool night ( Below 45F ) overnight lows should also rebound nicely, then settle somewhere between the upper 50s / low 60s.  Which is about where they should be..

All in all, let the race begin..

[sandgroper]

Currently 36c at 4.00pm, a warm temperature for this late into Autumn, not unheard of but warm nonetheless. Looking forward to some cooler weather and hopefully some rain.

[DTS]

It decides to finally become spring here

[Palm Sundae]

Looks like a couple days in the 90's Thursday-Friday for the first time this year. Overnight is still cool 40's, 50's. Lots of Snowbirds have left, are leaving or making plans but also some with extended stays this year. Hmm..... been awfully nice but a little too cool for what I'd like to germinate, lol.

[sandgroper]

Still no sign of rain half way through Autumn,  starting to look a bit grim.

[Palm Sundae]

On 4/9/2024 at 9:36 PM, Palm Sundae said:

Looks like a couple days in the 90's Thursday-Friday for the first time this year.

At 95 with single digit humidity. Warm but comfy. Mid 50's tonight.

[Silas_Sancona]

89F currently after a nice warm afternoon across the region.. First 100F on the board today, though most neighborhood stations failed to reach the century mark.

Readings across the E Valley / S. AZ as of 3:15PM



















Perfect in Tucson and down along the borderlands too.

















..The single 100F reading for the day, not far from the house, right around 4PM.




Warm tomorrow, ..and Saturday,   then another quick cool down,  followed by more " medium " heat..  Pretty much perfect.



  Mockingbird currently singing his heart out, at all hours ( ...even at 1am ) certainly agrees. 

No chicken scratch needed 😁

[Foxpalms]

Min of 55.4f/13c with a high of 69f/20.5c with with 60% humidity. It was cloudy for most of the day, hence why the humidity was on the higher side for this time of the year.  We will see how warm tomorrow is forecasted high is 21c/70f. It will depend on sunny it is from 12-5pm.

[Silas_Sancona]

88F at 11:11AM on your Friday, On the way to somewhere in the 90s later. WxU. forecast suggests 92F but think we'll land closer to 94-96 ..unless more wind kicks in thru the afternoon..

Only slight adjustments too the forecast for the weekend ahead, and next week.  Stay in the 80s thru Sunday, mid/ upper 90s back in play later next week / headed into next weekend,  -for now anyway..

[Foxpalms]

High of 72f/22.2c with 52% humidity. Mostly cloudy with the sun shining through the clouds as there weren't too dense. Warmest day of the year so far.

[Arecaceus]

Another weekend with summer temperatures. At least by our met. office's official standard (has to be at least 25°C). Had a high of 26.5°C and a low of 13.7°C today with beautiful sunshine. Yet again the lows this week have been very warm for spring. Even now at almost 2:30 a.m. it's still 19°C outside under a clear sky. ☀️🌡️🌴

[Silas_Sancona]

A nice, lightly breezy 83F on a Sunday Afternoon in mid April..  Beautiful evening ahead.

..Slightly cooler tomorrow as a dry ( here ) storm passes well to our north.



After that?  ...Nuthin' but the 90s on tap for the majority of the week and into -at least- the start of next week.  While it has backed off a bit -for now- there were a few days in the current forecast that were flirting w/ our first 100F readings of the year..  We'll see if the return as we head past Tuesday, or hold off a bit longer..

Pretty nice otherwise.  Possible " SunSet Watch on Thursday,  and some lower 60 overnights returning by the weekend.



Also nice?  ..As i'm sure some have heard, Looks like the Coyotes, ..our " local " NHL Hockey team is taking the hint sent by folks here packin' it up, and hitting the road for Salt Lake City.  Couldn't be happier.  Hopefully some snowbirds follow.

[sandgroper]

Nice sunny days but we really need some rain, the first day of winter is only six weeks away and we've had bugger all. 

[Tyrone]

8 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Nice sunny days but we really need some rain, the first day of winter is only six weeks away and we've had bugger all. 

Yes, even on the south coast we’ve had diddly squat. Really weird. Probably unprecedented. I think we may be in trouble. No rain in sight either. I’m not on mains water here and rely on tank water for the house. I may have to buy water in soon. Worst ever. I’ve heard some farmers are starting to seed. I don’t know why they are bothering actually. Consistent rain may not come until June down here. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A nice 69F after ..what may be the final sub - 80F high for this side of 2024. 

After a cool-ish start tomorrow morning, the dial starts edging up heading forward. Upper 90s -at least- back on the forecast map for the weekend ahead.

Will we officially  crack the century mark fr the first time?? ..we'll see.  Should be plenty of 100s on the board across the neighborhood stations regardless.



Some lower mid 60s to start a couple mornings around the same time as well. 

The start of fore - summer appears to be rounding the corner..
 

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 80 at 8:21PM on a Friday evening w/ some mid level clouds passing through..

Weekend ahead still looking toasty but, maybe not cracking the 100F mark just yet..

Mid April warmth sticks around though some spring troughs passing to our north may bring a break from the upper 80/ 90s late next week  ...before the next warm up approaches. 



Nights stay in the pleasant lane regardless..

[Chester B]

Sitting at 78F/25.5C this morning at 9 am, with some rain in the forecast this weekend.  Yesterday was my first 90F/32C day of the year.

[Arecaceus]

We went from summer straight to winter this week. Temperatures dropped about 10°C on average. Very stormy as well. Today's high was 13.2°C and the low only 3.0°C !!! 🥶 This upcoming week it slowly gets warmer again and by next weekend we should be back above 20°C. ⛈️❄️😰

[Silas_Sancona]

A comfy 74F at 10:59PM after ...skimming... 100F un-officially  earlier.  Hit the century mark at Sky Harbor though, and may do so again tomorrow.

Another nice break in the heat still on tap for next weekend as a couple late season storms pass through N.Cal / Great Basin thus keeping 500MB heights a bit below more expected heights over the low deserts ...for a few days at least,  before the next round of mid/ upper 90s sets in just as we head into May. 



While not reached officially, locally,  plenty of the seasons first 100F readings around various neighborhoods today ...As of 3:50PM this afternoon






















Tucson managed to stay in the 90s











While the borderland areas enjoyed a warm, but overall pretty nice late spring Sunday afternoon.











 

[Silas_Sancona]

85F at 9:01AM ...on the way to maybe cracking the Century mark later..  Suggested High today is 98, but it isn't unusual to top out 1-4F higher than the forecast reading, esp. this time of year..  so,  ..we'll see.

Regardless,  if visiting,  don't be an out of town ( ...or local )  " Moron Extraordinaire "  ..Stay off the trails until near sunset,  and drink plenty of water if you have to be out in the heat thru the afternoon.

[UK_Palms]

The weather has been crap here for a few weeks now. Daytime highs are lacklustre (they were actually higher in mid-February) and nights have been a fair bit cooler. It has been a pretty poor mid-spring period.

However at least we have not had frosts like they are getting on the continent. France and Germany have been smashed by a bad late freeze. One of the worst on record in fact!

Nighttime minima on Monday morning…

Nighttime minima last night. Temperatures down to -7C / 21F in central Germany and -9C / 17F near the border with Czechia. 

In comparison St James Park in London only went down to 6.1C / 43F and the Isles of a Scilly only went down to 10.4C / 51F.

 

For many vineyards across France, the damage is already done…

Temperatures of 4C / 40F on the French Mediterranean coast at 6pm in late April is insane. And I thought it was bad here when it was only 9C / 48F at 6pm yesterday!

The snowfall at higher elevations in France and Italy is ridiculous as well during this event. Nearly 2 foot falling in parts of central Italy even. We are almost into May now!

 

[conceptualizeme]

nice and cloudy 50f, visiting family in Canada

[sandgroper]

Currently 14c at 7.00am heading for a pleasant top of 25c, very pleasant conditions for our ANZAC day commemorations.

[Palm Sundae]

Looking more and more likely to have upper 70's highs on Saturday. One last day of glorious Snowbird Weather before heading back to the 90's. Which, to be fair, are pretty nice with the low humidity.

Summer is just around the corner though. No official hundo's in my yard yet and not too likely for a few weeks... but they be a coming.

[Silas_Sancona]

Low 80s under partly cloudy skies with a side of stiff breezes on your final Friday afternoon in April.

While the chances are pretty slim, there's  at least a slight chance for a rouge shower ..perhaps with a flash or two passing through parts of the valley this evening or before sunrise tomorrow.  If we see anything, it would be less than .10" anywhere rain might fall in the valley.

Foothills / high country might see .25-.50" ..maybe a little more in spots and a better opportunity for a nice evening light show, if storms pop up.

Perfect Saturday  ...for the end of April... in the 78-82F range on tap before the next round of heat arrives by the start of next week..






Will this weekend be the last of the " nice " side of Spring  before Fore-Summer sets in?  or will the warm up next week be followed by another quick break in an otherwise trend upward??  We'll see.




While the Subtropical ( Monsoon ) High is starting to awaken across far southern Mexico, far N.E. Pacific, off the Pac. N.W. and Canada is really trying to hang onto the lingering El Nino influenced trough-y ness which could keep allowing a few more weak and cool storms to slip into CA and across the central Great Basin for a couple more weeks before that troughy ness finally gives up and retreats as the subtropical high starts flexing it's muscle across a broader area of Mexico..

In other words, depending on who blinks first,  we might have a week or two left before we start the months long stretch of nothing but 100+ arrives. 

My thoughts on this mirror thoughts Daniel Swain had shared in his last Wx West post.:  https://weatherwest.com/



As for the summer ahead?  waiting to see what the longer term forecasts look like next month, but,  if what seems obvious to everyone looking into their crystal balls right now pans out, another dry summer may lie head.  Not totally convinced of that outcome just yet, but,  If so, hopefully it isn't near as dismal as last year.  Even if it does end up dry,  a " slightly " below normal outcome  would be wet compared to seeing basically nothing last year.  


For now,  Big thing i'll be watching closely as we approach and pass mid May are how rains are behaving across both Eastern and far southern Mexico.

Sustained rainy pattern setting up across the mountains in E. Mexico over the next few weeks, steadily expanding westward through Chihuahua to the central Sierra Occidental as we reach late May? a good sign.. Same with rains starting to flare up over the mountains south of a line from Puerto Vallarta to Tampico, with that moisture steadily creeping north / north west as we reach the start of June..

Hopefully by then, the heat will be cranking locally,  ushering in the first hints of moisture seeping into the high country at times.  

Fingers 🤞

[sandgroper]

A beautiful morning at the beach heading for a sunny top of 25c.

[greysrigging]

Sunrise yesterday morning looking east from my street in front of my house....


Last 5 days at Darwin Airport

[cm05]

70°F (21°C) here after a high of 87°F (31°C). Warmest day of the year so far.

[sandgroper]

Finally some rain! A lovely wet day with the promise of some rain over the rest of the week before fining up again for the weekend.  Not sure of the current temperature but heading for a top of 24c.

[UK_Palms]

I am reporting 20.1C / 68F at 2pm here. I haven’t got the energy to write much currently as this spring is becoming a drag now and one to forget.

 

After another 35mm of rain over the weekend and some rather appalling daytime temperatures, we have got a slightly warmer and drier spell now, although the highs still look a bit lacklustre. 🙄

[Arecaceus]

Summer's back! Temperatures were already above 20°C at the weekend and it got warmer and warmer with today, the national holiday being the warmest. Had a high of 29.6°C and a low of 14.2°C. I spent all Labour's Day in the garden and enjoyed the sun (working of course 😂). What's crazy are the night temperatures again, especially compared to last week. Temps dropped below 5°C several nights and one night it almost froze. And last night we had 20°C still after midnight. ☀️🌡️🌴