What is your current yard temperature?

[Foxpalms]

Min of 57.2f/14c with a max of 74f/23.3c with 36% humidity. Sun and clouds today. Pond temp is up to 20c. 

[Silas_Sancona]

88F at 11:36AM as the last of the morning's sprinkles / isolated rumble or two  slide further south toward Tucson and Ajo... 

W/ more buildups / H.B.  showers and isolated storms popping up on the Rim atm, could we see another chance for some " spit", ...and a gusty breeze or two? ..as slim as it may be..  later this afternoon??

While the UPLL responsible for the AM activity is heading out of eastern N.M., one last piece of ideal uplift may rotate south / southwestward down the backside of the low, thru the high country through the rest of the afternoon / early evening before the predominantly dry and stable flow out of the northwest completely scours out any remaining moisture hanging out over the area.

Might be enough for a brief sprinkle, ..or -more likely-  may leave us with some debris clouds and a outflow generated breeze passing through the valley around sunset.

Regardless, things clear out and temps bump up to the 100-104F range for tomorrow - Sunday,  before settling back to the mid / upper 90s again as we start next week as another weak and dry UPLL wanders across the area and keeps the subtropical high from edging north out of Mexico again..

Beyond next week?  We'll see ..Next big bump up in temps is still being hinted at as we approach Memorial Day  -not unusual-

Something a touch more interesting might be hovering on the horizon as well..

As has been hinted at by various model runs,  looks like the season's first tropical -something- may come to life in the E. Pacific.

Latest discussion from the Hurricane Center is picking up on the possibility as well.. 



Depending on what actually happens w/ that yellow X, some of the GFS runs have teased the possibility that some of the moisture from a potential tropical system passing by to our south may find it's way north to -at least- far S. / S.E. AZ  ..maybe seeping into the Mountains / eastern areas of the Rim / Foothills.. May pump a decent shot of moisture into the Sierra Madre Occidental  as well.

Depending on other things that might help pull some of that moisture into the state of course, maybe a brief, wafting hint of pre- Monsoon Season goodness shows up in the area as a result..  

Would compare such a possibility to when someone in the neighborhood is grilling something really good and a breeze brings the scent right past your open patio door or windows..  May not be invited to the feast but,  for a moment, you can savor the flavor..

Maybe not time to " fire up the grill " just yet  ...so to say,  but, is perhaps a good " wet the appetite " motivator for getting the grill ready..

Summer will arrive, shortly..

[sandgroper]

Currently 16c at 6.00am heading for a sunny top of 29c. 

[sandgroper]

We really need some rain, the first day of winter is only two weeks away and we've had bugger all so far. That said, as much as we need the rain I finished work at 1.30pm today and was at the beach by 2.30pm after having gone home to get the dog, it was a lovely 29c and the water was perfect for a swim.

[UK_Palms]

22C / 72F here at midday currently.

We currently have a ‘cooler’ arctic airflow and northern blocking in place technically, but it seems temperatures will still be reaching 22-23C / 72-75F in the capital this week. The longer days, strength of the sun now and above average sea temperatures around us all likely a factor in that.

 

Also, the first 32C / 90F run has appeared now in the GFS ensembles it seems. Bring it on! 💪

 

The Scottish Highlands really performing as of late. They had 25-26C up there yesterday. They have been the most anomalously warm and dry area in the UK in recent weeks.

 

[sandgroper]

Currently 17c at dawn heading for a sunny top of 29c again.

[sandgroper]

Currently a sunny 27c at 2.00pm as was the expected top.

[Silas_Sancona]

92 on the way to the 98-103F range later this afternoon before the next ..essentially dry  ..and windy.. spring trough passed through the region tomorrow, dropping temps down into the upper 80s / low 90s. 



Passing cloud cover expected to accompany the passing system may manage to squeeze out a few spit-y drops across the low deserts as they pass overhead.

Bigger concern will be gusty dry winds.. We're already off to a much more active Pre- monsoon season Fire season compared to last year and strong winds forecast across the state over the next few days could kick things up a notch -in terms of potential for larger fires / rate of spread..

Beyond that?  Chick'n Scratch above says it all.. Warms up mid week, ..but not too much  -By " AZ in late May " standards-  Next passing trough will bring temps back into the " comfortably hot " range by Memorial Day weekend.




After that?, as Meteorological Spring wraps up?  ..Could we finally start to see the heat kick it up a notch? ...as the pre dawn twilight of a rapidly approaching start of Monsoon Season brighten up the eastern horizon??   We'll see....

Some hints in the offing that the 4 corners High may start start flexing it's influence a bit more right around the start of June, but, we know what those hints have yielded, thus far.. ....


...So,  we'll see..


One possible hint:  PNA may finally pull out of it's lonnnggg run in negative territory by the start of June..  Decides to return to positive territory ( + PNA would allow the 4 corners high to start building in as the persistent  trough-y influence off the N.W U.S. retreats - finally!! ) by the start of next month?  heat could definitely crank up a bit more, locally at least..

Positive PNA might also help get the rainy season going in FL as well.



Daniel Swain mentions the potential for increasing influence from the 4 corners high across the west in his latest blog post..  https://weatherwest.com/

That said, as Daniel suggested, Coastal CA may have to wait a touch longer to feel some real heat.  Once it arrives, if it does,  it could get quite hot though ..and that may just be the start of a very different pattern after the summer ahead.. 

As for my thoughts on the Monsoon season ahead, ..I'll share those later.. 


A final check on El Nino?   As suggested, Final El Nino-favored contour ( Solid Lines ) is gone after today in the Pacific..  Note where it goes and starts building, while the La Nina- favored Contour line ( dashed ) starts to build. 

Note too how MJO activity ( Red / Red-ish lines ) ..particularly Active -favored phases ( Solid Red contour lines ) may pretty much vanish in a majority of the Pacific by mid / late July, as the La Nina favored pattern starts building over the entire Eastern Pacific.    We'll see.










 

[sandgroper]

Currently 21c heading for a top of 27c. 

[UK_Palms]

22.9C / 73F here at midday today today. Probably going for a max of about 24C / 75F by mid-late afternoon. Not a single cloud in the sky so far today.

Yesterday’s max here was 25.1C / 77F.

Overall it hasn’t been a bad May. The past 2 weeks especially have been pretty warm and sunny after a slightly iffy opening week to the month.

Sunshine hours still below average though with only 115 hours up until the 19th for Heathrow. Average maximum temperature of 20.1C / 68F so far this month and 26.8mm / 1.05 inches of rainfall so far. A drying trend is definitely becoming evident as we go into summer now.

The Met Office station at Leconfield in Yorkshire has only recorded 9.4mm / 0.36 inches this month. I think that is the lowest in England at least for anywhere this month.

Anyway, the outlook remains fairly warm and dry… I expect this summer to meet Csb / warm-summer Med criteria for London and southeast England specifically.

 

[Arecaceus]

This past week a lot of thunderstorm came through. Also some nice sunny phases but a bit cooler than the weeks before with temperatures in the low to mid 20s Celsius. Sometimes a bit muggy, especially in the morning because nights are still often quite warm. Today's high was 25.0°C and the low 14.2°C. ⛈️🌴

[Palm Sundae]

 

[Palm Sundae]

Meanwhile, 90's/60's persist in my backyard until sometime next week when the 100+ temps are due to make a recurring appearance. Mostly clear and sunny although yesterday got pretty windy and a bit overcast. Monsoon still a few weeks away.

[Foxpalms]

Raining cool and very humid today, 99% humidity right now. The strange thing is this rain isn't coming from the Atlantic it's coming from Serbia. Though one record was broken. The highest sea temp for this date was recorded. The River Thames also recorded the highest water temp on record for this date.  18.5c by London city airport.  There is a 50% chance London breaks the record for the hottest May on record. That will depend on how warm the next 10 days are Northern Africa has also been extremely hot with 47c recorded a few miles inland from Tripoli.

 

Even the med has been extremely wet in 2024. Nice France has had a very wet winter and spring.  Nice receives more rain than we do annually however they have already had 83% of their annual rainfall.

[Foxpalms]

The whole Middle East has been extremely hot this year. Egypt has been running at about 2c above average. Pakistan is seeing some extreme heat. Slightly inland from Jizan Saudi Arabia they have been recording dew points in the high 20c's with temps of over 40c where the air feel like would be 56c.

[Silas_Sancona]

A dry 83F at 7:55PM..  

Steady, and quiet for the remainder of the week.  Little cooler to start off the Memorial Day Weekend ahead, heating up beyond..




Your daily / weekly dose of  carrot danglin'   ..This time courtesy of today's 18Z GFS as we kick off the month ahead..  We'll see.





More detailed look from Pivotal Wx at what a 594+dm ridge pretty much overhead might result in temps - wise the day before the ridge centers up over N.E. AZ..




Could even try to draw in a hint of moisture, if the ridge doesn't get pushed away to the east right away. ..




About time to enter the " fun " time of year..

[Silas_Sancona]

00Z GFS?    ....More carrots for ya'


Who wants a Western Death Ridge    ...in early June?

360 hours...



384 hours...




Temp forecast for both hour markers from Pivotal...   California? = Toasty!

360..



 
384...   It's a dry  heat though....

[sandgroper]

Currently 8c at 7.00am heading for a sunny top of 27c.

[Silas_Sancona]

A " Comfortable "  92F at 6:08PM...

Your crazy  ( ...or maybe not so crazy?? ) model run for the day...   Circled area is where this model run is suggesting temps at / above 120F



Maybe not so crazy since we're now 3 for 4 in today's model runs suggesting some serious heat may be lurking just beyond the final days of May for both AZ and CA ( ...and surrounding areas )..

Picking just one day,  June 6th, at 5PM ( 00Z ),  Suggested temps from both the 12z and 18z. 

On all the runs today thus far, suggested " heat wave " should it occur, would start around the 4th and extend thru ...at least the 7th.


12Z at 348 hours




18Z at 342 Hours



We'll see what the 00Z looks like tonight / thoughts from the GFS tomorrow..

[sandgroper]

Currently 13c at 6.00am heading for a cloudy top of 26c. It looks like we may finally be getting some rain with a forecast for the coming week of cooler temperatures and rain every day, it's long overdue so it'll be a welcome relief, everything is very dry and the farmers are unhappy. 

[Tyrone]

Only a week from winter and a min of 6.5C (not unusual for late May) with a max of 27.2C which is very warm this far south at 35S. A warm winter is forecast too. 

[Silas_Sancona]

97F at 2:59PM ..maybe tacking on another deg. or 3 before 5PM, ..before a nice start to the Memorial Day Weekend tomorrow..

Bump up in temps again as the holiday weekend wraps up on Monday but, not looking all that " hot " overall as May ..and Meteorological Spring comes to a close..



While they've backed off quite a bit from earlier model run thoughts, GFS is still advertising a bigger step up heat-wise after the start of June.. That said, for now at least, hottest temps suggested in the 10-15 day forecast look to hang in the 107-110F range -not bad.

Still some hints of possible, minor moisture intrusions into AZ / N.M.  from either the east ..and / or.. south as we head into the first 2 weeks of June too   ...We'll see..








.....On that note:

For @Joco  and @Brian  Cross your fingers,  you ..and a good majority of Mexico... may see finally start to see relief from the excessive heat you've been dealing with / your rainy season really starting to kick in..

While you should always take maps like these w/ a grain of salt, ...because they are far from precise,  there have been some decent hints from several of the longer term GEFS Wx Model runs that rains will start up down there.

I myself closely monitor how the rainy season evolves down there because ..If it stays dry down there, our end of the region's Monsoon season will fail as well.. 

Anyway, as you can see, by the time everyone who celebrates Dia de San Juan down there ..and up here.. is celebrating the day..  rainy season could be underway /  working it's way north into AZ / N.M.  

Maps below are " anomaly " based .. Showing how much more or less rainfall ( compared to normal for the time of year ) could be falling.  Doesn't necessarily mean it will be a wet year, but, some relief at least.

  While the suggested outcome is not 100% guaranteed, it gives an idea  on an overall trend being picked up by the forecast model. 

Future runs may back off ..or add onto... the idea of what you're seeing on these maps. Let's hope the trend stays wetter vs. drier..

*** Total 840 Hour run from the GEFS lags by about a day, so today's run ( 00Z May 24th ) will be completed at 00Z hours tonight..  When you look over the maps, you'd go back a day  ***

May 21st



May 22



May 23

[Silas_Sancona]

9 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

While they've backed off quite a bit from earlier model run thoughts, GFS is still advertising a bigger step up heat-wise after the start of June.. That said, for now at least, hottest temps suggested in the 10-15 day forecast look to hang in the 107-110F range -not bad.

Well, that was a short " break " in the fantasy model runs ayh?  


A pleasant 77F under partly cloudy skies ..and a breeze at 1:03AM



Presenting:  Tonight's 00Z GFS  w/ the Super-Sized Death Ridge faint - asy  around the 8th -10th.

500mb heights at 360 hours..  Uhhh Huhhh,  you're seeing that right  ...that is 600mb heights ..in early June.. ( Usually see 600 reached around the start of July )



384 hours..





Suggested temps for the same two time periods.. ** from Pivotal ***


360  118F for Phoenix?  ..Sounds pleasant..



384 Hours:   100 - teens for the Central Valley / 95- 100+ for the Bay Area / near coastal  So Cal.  Sounds good.. 


Oy vey!

😬

[Palm Sundae]

Still 90's/60's through Sunday. Looks like Summer officially starts Monday according to "my backyard" rules which clearly state that consistent daytime highs in the triple digits only happen in the Summer... 🤣  Projections show 100+ starting Monday as far as the eye can see, with overnight lows due to climb into the 70's early next month. The golfers are undeterred for now.

[Silas_Sancona]

A beautiful n' kinda breezy 85F at 10:27AM..    On the way to 92-95F later.


...and the " ? hypothetical ? " craziness   ....continues...

06Z GFS:  Raise your hand if you can recall the extreme Pac. N.W. heatwave in '21








12Z targeting CA w/ 600mb heights.. IF  this scenario were to actually occur, would bet heights  above  600mb would be recorded in spots in the Sierras / Western  and/or  Southern Nevada.   Also bet that would smash records.




06Z ECMWF AI FS also joining the circus.. Interestingly, it also lifts the 4C High north enough / stretches it out enough that AZ, N.M, and W. TX slip under the southern side with a weakness in heights developing over W. TX ( Light blue circle )..  Such a weakness moving west ( Faux Easterly Wave ? ) could spur a noticeable early taste of the monsoon..

[Arecaceus]

This past week has been even cooler than the week before that. Weather was pleasant though. With temps mostly in the low to mid 20s Celsius and lots of sun, interrupted by heavy thunderstorms with rain fall. The air is very very nice and fresh. Today's high was 25.1°C and the low 13.7°C. Nights are quite balmy. ⛈️☀️🥰

[sandgroper]

Currently 17c at 6.30am heading for a rainy top of 23c. Much cooler temps this coming week with some much needed rain.

[kinzyjr]

21 hours ago, Arecaceus said:

This past week has been even cooler than the week before that. Weather was pleasant though. With temps mostly in the low to mid 20s Celsius and lots of sun, interrupted by heavy thunderstorms with rain fall. The air is very very nice and fresh. Today's high was 25.1°C and the low 13.7°C. Nights are quite balmy. ⛈️☀️🥰

I'll take your version of balmy.  The days were all in the high 90s F with no rain, and the nights barely fell into the 70s F this weekend.  Currently 96F out in the yard.

[Silas_Sancona]

A hot  ..But tolerable..  105F at 2:44PM  A few for now but, the season's first 110+F readings on the board today in some of the neighborhoods.  W/ an hour or two to go, we'll see if we can get some more logged in for the afternoon.  Some wispy high clouds sneaking in from the west / southwest  for the remainder of the day might provide another entry into the " Sunset Season " files..


Steady ...'n a bit sweaty   as May closes out,  and June / Meteorological Summer  <  ..And the official start of the Atlantic / G.O.M. Hurricane season... > begins  by the weekend.

Highs hang right around what is typical for right now, maybe bumping up a touch closer to our first official 110F's by the middle of next week..  Potential for Crazy heat is still out there, but backed off a bit again, for now at least. 

Are inching our way closer to the " traditional " mid - June  timeframe when the 110's are all but guaranteed. We'll see if we get there, on time, this year.

















Another interesting thing to be watched closely as we head into next week?  ..Maybe some spit / high country storms??? 

GFS / ECMWF AI FS, and the longer term GEFS have continued to hint at the potential for some moisture sneaking into AZ  ..or at least the Mountains / Rim,  sometime between the 7th and 11th.

While these outlooks should never be taken too seriously,  it is interesting that the CPC is picking up on what both the 10 day / 14 day **esp.** are hinting at ..at least the potential for...  some showers here in the not to distant future.    We'll see.

Not a soul here who wouldn't want a nice taste of the Monsoon, right out of the gate.  Certainly not gonna turn down an opportunity for potential Lightning test shots either..

[sandgroper]

Currently 12c and very rainy at 6.00am heading for a cool top of 17c, the coldest day since last year. The rain is very welcome, it took a while to get here but it's finally arrived, very happy with the weather.

[Silas_Sancona]

Final numbers for the afternoon...

[sandgroper]

Lots of lovely rain about today with a top of 22c. 

[Silas_Sancona]

93F at 10:30AM ..on the way to the low 100s on this final day of May,  ..and Meto. Spring 2024.

Until high latitude blocking in the Arctic finally ends, and the 4 corners high can drop anchor over the U.S., what you see, is what you get..  Which isn't all that bad for the start of June.. Hot, but it could be worse..  Some hints the beginning of 110F heat may be in the cards, on a couple days at least next week, but, to me at least, doesn't look like they'll stick around too long  just yet..

Best shot at 110 this coming week will be Wednesday, and/ or Thursday..  Temps pull back to the 102-106F range by the weekend, though cloud cover potential could be influencing temps at that time..



Still keeping an eye on the potential for some moisture to wander into the state, from about Tuesday forward next week..  All current Wx model thoughts, except the GFS are hanging onto a decent -for early June- shot at some isolated / widely scattered storm chances for parts of the high country / east and southern AZ. 

On at least one day between the 5th and 11th, potential shower activity that fires up around the state might just be widespread enough across the state to bring sprinkles / a trace of rainfall somewhere  to the valley floors around  Cen and S. AZ..

We'll see..  Humidity / Dew Points / PWAT values should climb a bit during the same time, so any warmer nights forecast could feel a little extra stuffy.

[flplantguy]

99.1 F for the high here in northwest pasco county, Florida.  Way higher than forecast this close to the gulf even with a light onshore(ish) flow.  I really hope its a last gasp of the excessive heat before rainy season but it echoes last year a lot.

[kinzyjr]

34 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

99.1 F for the high here in northwest pasco county, Florida.  Way higher than forecast this close to the gulf even with a light onshore(ish) flow.  I really hope its a last gasp of the excessive heat before rainy season but it echoes last year a lot.

I'd even go as far as worse than last year so far.  Last May was alright here - but not so good over in Tampa. 

Stats for this May here:

• Max Temperature: 101.8F
• Days 100F+: 3
• Days 95F+: 17
• Rain: 1.25in
• Last Precip: 05/17/2024 (2 weeks ago)

[D. Morrowii]

I’ve had a few days over 95 here but no 100s yet. Sure seems hot for this early in the year. The nighttime lows in the 70s seem fairly normal though. We’ve had 9 days over 90 and several more in the high 80s since May 1st. At least we got a couple decent shots of rain last weekend to help keep the dust down. 

[sandgroper]

Currently a bright and sunny 20c heading for a top of 23c on this first day of winter.

[Silas_Sancona]

95-98F around the hood at 11:20AM as June and Meto. Summer get started... On the way to the low 100s a little later.

Opening week of June ...and the Summer ahead looks ..Odd ...both locally and across -at least- parts of CA.. 

From a rare, late season atmospheric river slamming parts of the Pac. N.W. over the next couple days, to a pretty pronounced, yet short duration??  heatwave setting up over CA ..and the interior West right after,   ...to ..upper level low madness ( Because they're impossible to forecast accurately, and can bring pretty much anything weather- wise )  which could bring nothing, or bring showers and storms to both AZ and parts of CA. next week ..maybe beyond??..

" Complicated " was mentioned by Daniel Swain in his last blog entry as well: https://weatherwest.com/


Considering that none of the weather models ( ...let alone day to day runs of each ) can settle on a particular outcome / are an absolute mess atm,   Just about anything is on the table over the next week to 10 days across the state and region..  that includes the possibility for some spit here / storms in the high country / across S. / E. AZ, and the possibility for showers / storms across parts of CA..

While it will get hotter across a good chunk of CA sometime next week, who sees the worst of it/ how long it hangs around ..if it does...  is a big question mark.

Somewhat of the same idea here..  For now,  it looks like mid week next week is our best chance of reaching / crossing the 110F / Tucson getting close / Sonoita nearing the 100F mark,  before temps pull back again in all areas.. 

How long they pull back? 🤷🏼‍♂️ ..Just going to have to wait and see..  Showers / Storms? ..We'll have to wait and see..  A good example?,  Forecasts have gone from suggesting 0.01"  to 0.30",  then to 0.01" again here over the last 4 days..  0.00" to .89" to  .05" down south and up in the mountains.  -Absolute  -Hot  -Mess.












One thing that looks pretty certain, starting Monday or early on Tuesday,  looks like we head into a nice stretch of Sunset / Sunrise viewing kind of weather.. Thus, a sunset / sunrise watch is issued state ..and region-wide..

Heat / no heat,  Spit or stayin' dry  .....At least there may be some interesting skies to enjoy next week 🤷🏼‍♂️

[Palm Sundae]

23 hours ago, flplantguy said:

 

 

22 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

 

 

20 hours ago, D. Morrowii said:

 

How are you guys thinking about hurricane season this year? The setup is looking like it could be rough.

 

[D. Morrowii]

@Palm Sundae It’s a forecast but I guess we’ll have to see what actually happens. My place could get hit with a Cat 4 on year where fewer hurricanes are expected and completely missed on a year like this one. It’s completely out of my control so I don’t waste too much time worrying about it. All we can do is prepare like we always do and deal with the aftermath when it comes. I’m more worried about what mortgage insurance companies will do with this info. 🙄