What is your current yard temperature?

[Tyrone]

Yesterday, the first day of winter had a minimum of 15.8C and a max of 24.9C. At midnight it was still 21C before the cold front hit. Right now at sun up it’s around 14C and raining. Expecting a top of 18C today before we go back into the low twenties from there. Subtropical Albany. I never thought I’d ever say that. 

[flplantguy]

@Palm Sundae i agree with @D. Morrowii its a gamble every year. But sometimes you just have a feeling when one forms that can effect prep, irma was that way for me. The setup can be so complex its best to be at 100% prep at the start so you have minutes of work.  Thats not always possible, i still have not drilled the holes for my window covers and thats not smart, now i may be out in the heat beforehand. Heart issues slowed me down and now it may not happen unless its a mad scramble and thats not fun.  Neither is moving plants nonstop for 7 hours lol.  As to the pattern this year it is concerning and im hoping for sheared messes that dump rain and little wind. We had a few over the years like that and some named duds, they all have a "personality" of sorts.  Best salve for worry is prep and a plan thats for sure; if you have that done you can worry with confidence lol.

[Silas_Sancona]

101F at 5:37PM..

Interesting example of June in the Sonoran Desert..

Has been in the 100-104F range on several days for the past couple weeks. Felt quite a bit hotter today compared to a majority of the 100-105F days of recent.. 

Quick look at the Dew Point / Humidity readings thru the afternoon today answer the question of why..  Nice swath of super dry air cutting it's way through the desert atm.. 



Dew point currently back up 2 deg ( 11 ).  Humidity back to a soaking wet 4%

Can hear the moisture being squeezed out of  ..everything...,  lol..




 

[kinzyjr]

@Palm Sundae

My thoughts are similar to @D. Morrowii and @flplantguy.  We get what we get and deal with it, whatever it is.  We could use the rain, but not the 140MPH+ winds.  The effects on insurance and all are a concern.  They jack that through the roof or drop your policy even if you live in an area that's never flooded and never had a damage claim.  It's a joke.

[Palm Sundae]

1 hour ago, flplantguy said:

@Palm Sundae i agree with @D. Morrowii its a gamble every year....

...Heart issues slowed me down and now it may not happen unless its a mad scramble and thats not fun.  Neither is moving plants nonstop for 7 hours lol.  As to the pattern this year it is concerning and im hoping for sheared messes that dump rain and little wind.

Sorry about the health. Hope you get you best prep done in ample time and then don't need it!

There are so many places I would prefer not to live because of weather concerns, yet here I am getting ready to go through another AZ summer with a shot at 110 within a week, just another 3 months or so of nasty heat, lol.

Thanks to both of you for the comments.

[Brian]

Down here on the west coast of Mexico we were at 33 c for a high and 25 c for overnight low. Ocean temps are still low still at 22 c near shore and slightly higher 10 miles out at 24 c. Nightly offshore breeze is weak with leads me to think its been hot up in the mountains. Still no sign of a start to the rainy season and the cool ocean temps will probably hamper any tropical storm formation. Hopefully we will see changes in the next few weeks.

 

[sandgroper]

Currently a bright and sunny morning heading for a top of 21c, we've had a lot of rain over the past week which has been great but it's nice to have a morning like this on a public holiday Monday.  My pup certainly loved running around at the dog park, was too lazy to go down the beach this morning. 

[UK_Palms]

Temps have been lacklustre over the past week or two. I managed 24C / 75F here yesterday, but that is going to be the warmest temperature for some time it seems with a strong -NAO set up. Not ideal for warmth in spring/summer for us here, even though yesterday was pleasantly warm with all day sun.

 

We are about to lose any ‘warm’ Atlantic influence from the west with arctic air from the north replacing it. Of course it won’t be that cold at this time of year, but it won’t be ‘warm’ either. The first half of June is going to be pretty cool and lacklustre for us.

At least it appears to be fairly dry. ECM and GFS have only a few mm of rainfall for southern England between now and mid-June. The 12z ECM had about 2mm / 0.08 inches for me here over the next 10 days and the 00z GFS has about 5mm / 0.2 inches over the next 16 days. Of course much wetter up north away from any warm-summer Med influence down south.

 

I am expecting a somewhat backloaded summer this year with July being much warmer and August likely seeing the hottest and driest conditions. Overall it will be a dry summer though and fairly warm, especially once we get past mid-June and +NAO returns for us with the Azores High.

[SeanK]

52 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Temps have been lacklustre over the past week or two. I managed 24C / 75F here yesterday, but that is going to be the warmest temperature for some time it seems with a strong -NAO set up. Not ideal for warmth in spring/summer for us here, even though yesterday was pleasantly warm with all day sun.

 

We are about to lose any ‘warm’ Atlantic influence from the west with arctic air from the north replacing it. Of course it won’t be that cold at this time of year, but it won’t be ‘warm’ either. The first half of June is going to be pretty cool and lacklustre for us.

At least it appears to be fairly dry. ECM and GFS have only a few mm of rainfall for southern England between now and mid-June. The 12z ECM had about 2mm / 0.08 inches for me here over the next 10 days and the 00z GFS has about 5mm / 0.2 inches over the next 16 days. Of course much wetter up north away from any warm-summer Med influence down south.

 

I am expecting a somewhat backloaded summer this year with July being much warmer and August likely seeing the hottest and driest conditions. Overall it will be a dry summer though and fairly warm, especially once we get past mid-June and +NAO returns for us with the Azores High.

Years back, I did a job at a place named Brunner, Mond & Co. Two weeks in the summer with each day the same weather. "Mix of sun and clouds, chance of rain, high 22°C".

[Samuel]

5 minutes ago, SeanK said:

Years back, I did a job at a place named Brunner, Mond & Co. Two weeks in the summer with each day the same weather. "Mix of sun and clouds, chance of rain, high 22°C".

That is the typical English summer despite what some say we do not have any Mediterranean influence in our climate actually our summers are getting wetter 

[Silas_Sancona]

On the cusp of 90F at 9:08AM  as we kick off what could be an interesting week across the Desert / West. Looks like we'll see our first taste of the 100- teens this week, before another " cool " down later    ..maybe..

Maybe = pick your longer term Wx thoughts...  Maps are all over the place / individual model runs completely afraid of committing to anything atm.  Typical unpredictability of any Upper level / COL development west / southwest of the Baja Spur sometime this week isn't helping the forecasts either..

For now,  heat is on, both across non- coastal spots in CA, and here ...for a few days at least..  While advisories for now, would anticipate the " advisories " here to be lifted to " warning " status by the time we reach mid- week..  If we do reach above 110F before hand, it will be a few days earlier than the typical first date of June 11th.







As usual this time of year, take the necessary precautions if / when outdoors for any length of time.. Don't be a dip ---- and stay off the trails when it is over 100F ( ...I'm sure most will be closed  Wed- Friday anyway ) and don't go doing stuff that might spark a fire. Been very  lucky nothing major has started so far..   Lets keep it that way..

As for any showers / storms?  🤷🏼‍♂️  ..We'll see..  One minute chances look reasonable, esp. up in the mountains / down south..  Next model run ( Doesn't matter which you look at btw )  they're yanked, almost completely, state -wide.. 


On that note, still closely monitoring the 00Z / 840hour GEFS runs..  Fingers crossed on some of it's current thoughts / persistence of longer term thoughts.



As for anyone here ..and east of here wanting to gripe about typical summer heat..

Until it is this hot in your back yard,  ..No howling allowed.   

...Gonna check the same Wx station today to see if it is similar to  yesterday's crazy hot reading or maybe yesterdays eye opening reading was an error.  90F w/ some humidity?  you're air conditioned compared to this..




Current reading from the same station..  Tomorrow looks .....Awful   ..legit. Awful.

Another nearby Wx station is currently sitting at 103F  ..w/ a " real Feel ' of ..135F.  They may hit 112F tomorrow..

[Foxpalms]

6 hours ago, SeanK said:

Years back, I did a job at a place named Brunner, Mond & Co. Two weeks in the summer with each day the same weather. "Mix of sun and clouds, chance of rain, high 22°C".

Is that up north near Manchester?

[Foxpalms]

The forecast here looks dry and cool with the 2nd half of June looking warmer. Though the weather has been very changeable. The Met office are suggesting the 2nd half of June going into July to be drier as well.

[Foxpalms]

6 hours ago, Samuel said:

That is the typical English summer despite what some say we do not have any Mediterranean influence in our climate actually our summers are getting wetter 

Far drier now though than it was in the winter/spring. Yes May was wetter than average, but every month was and it is turning drier. We will see what June, July and Aug rainfall amounts turn out to be.  Currently in central London the forecast is showing no rain for two weeks, we will see.

[Silas_Sancona]

Check on the above mentioned area of Veracruz, Mex. as of 1: 17PM local time ( theirs )  Wonder what that would feel like here, lol.

[UK_Palms]

6 hours ago, Samuel said:

That is the typical English summer despite what some say we do not have any Mediterranean influence in our climate actually our summers are getting wetter 

Literally 2/3 of our summers qualify as Csb / warm-summer Med nowadays, but okay.

2018 and 2022 were solidly quintessential Csb by definition, with 2020 and 2023 also qualifying for Csb technically too. So 4 of the past 6 summers have basically been warm-summer Med by definition. 2019 and 2021 being the two exceptions.

Annual precipitation is increasing, sure, but July rainfall has declined by about 20-25% in London since the year 2000. Again, we will see what this summer brings for us. I hate to say I told you so, but it will probably be quite dry. The bulk of our rainfall comes between October - March (75%) nowadays.

 

38 minutes ago, Foxpalms said:

Far drier now though than it was in the winter/spring. Yes May was wetter than average, but every month was and it is turning drier. We will see what June, July and Aug rainfall amounts turn out to be.  Currently in central London the forecast is showing no rain for two weeks, we will see.

May wasn't wetter than average for me here. It was certainly duller than average though, which maybe gave the impression that it was a lot wetter, but most of the rainfall just came in heavy downpours on a few specific days.

Overall it was bang average here really compared to the long term amount. The thing is it is taking ages for the ground to dry out properly after all the rain we have had over the past 6-7 months. I had more than a year's worth of rainfall between October - April.

[Foxpalms]

21 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

 

 

May wasn't wetter than average for me here. It was certainly duller than average though, which maybe gave the impression that it was a lot wetter, but most of the rainfall just came in heavy downpours on a few specific days.

Overall it was bang average here really compared to the long term amount. The thing is it is taking ages for the ground to dry out properly after all the rain we have had over the past 6-7 months. I had more than a year's worth of rainfall between October - April.

 

Here the ground dries out fairly fast.  I have to water lots in the summer. Though that's probably why some of the more fussy palms about cold wet roots seem to do well here like jubaeopsis caffra. Looking now at my my weather station, it was every so slightly above average rainfall in May here and yes, that was mainly from two very wet days in a row. Last week it was 27-29c at 70N, which just shows how ridiculous the difference is between eastern and Western Europe right now.

[Silas_Sancona]

99F at 4:31PM after topping out at 101.. Real feel made it to a measly 97F..



Downright frigid compared to the extreme heat in some towns on the Vera Cruz / Oaxaca region of S.E'rn Mexico..






Earlier, Cosamaloapan reached 118 w/ a real feel / Heat index that topped out at 156F for about 20 mins, before falling back into the  upper 140 / low 150 range thru the rest of the afternoon down there.. 

Since it is supposed to be hotter ( ..if that is possible ) tomorrow, Will be interesting to see if the heat index either area cracks 160.  ...Insanity..


Closer to home, as anticipated, Heat " Advisory " has been upgraded to a " warning " for the heat coming our way.  



Gettin' Hot,    but nuthin' to complain about..

[sandgroper]

Currently 16c at 6.00am heading for a sunny top of 23c before the rain comes in again from tomorrow. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A toasty Tuesday with a healthy helping of high Cirrus passing through. 100 at 4:01PM after peaking at 102 an hour ago..  Heat builds in tomorrow..

Rest of the week lookin HOT ...but,  it could be worse.   ..So no complaining...  If they manage to reach the forecast high on Thursday ..or both Thursday and Friday,  Phoenix proper could break a daily record or two.




Still some wavering between how quickly  ..or slowly  this "  taste of summer " backs off both locally and in California..  COL / Upper Level Low expected to form and  hover near the Baja Spur toward the end of the week / weekend ends up a touch stronger than forecast?  that could amp the ridge a bit more, leading to a slower backing off of the heat.  Weaker and centered more offshore? ..the opposite.

A slightly stronger low / closer prox. to the Baja coast could pull in more a little moisture than currently forecast by many of the models which could lead to slightly better chances for iso / widely scattered dry thunderstorms for the High Country / Rim, and Southern / S-Eastern AZ over the upcoming weekend. 

While there could be enough moisture pulled into the state to spark storms,  it is early June which means the lower atmosphere across the state is not moist enough for generating wetting rains which in turn raises the concern for lightning - sparked fires should any frisky storms occur.

Beyond the interesting weather ahead for the weekend,  we'll see..  still no solid agreement in the forecast as we head into mid June..  Another round of heat may quickly follow this weeks, or it holds off a bit.

Regardless, GEFS longer term thoughts are still steady in their thoughts that the 4C ridge will finally start building in over AZ/ N.M. around the time astronomical Summer arrives, fingers



One thing is already quite obvious, this year is definitely not like last year.  Last June, we did not see a high exceeding 105F until the 25th, with highs staying under 100 until the 16th.  No 110's until July 1st ..Per Accuweather history data.

Hopefully, this is a good sign for what lies ahead as this year's Monsoon Season starts.




Quick check down south:  ..Hot as ------, but none of the 3 stations below exceeded a combined temp / heat index reading of 151F today..  Still brutal enough down there though.

[Silas_Sancona]

95F at 10:24AM  on the way to 108F as our heatwave waves hello.. 100-Teens tomorrow.  On that note, closely watching Phoenix since, if they cross it, they may break a high temp. record that has stood for 129 years tomorrow.

Beyond that? interesting weather for the weekend still on tap, though the details might vary..

Further out? the battle continues..

00Z and 12Z: Ridge gets shunted east early next week / takes a little time to build back toward the west thru mid-month..






06Z  DEATH RIDGE ..Take #2



..w/ a wide area of 600 / 600+mb heights anchored right on top of AZ / N.M.  06Z roughly equals 11PM local time.  If this scenario were to play out, the suggested temp. at 11PM on that day would be 106F, after reaching 116-120F.   June 15th -25th or 6th is typically when we'd expect to see the biggest %'age of our annual 115+ heat, so, not atypical ..but borderline brutal none the less..  Something to keep an eye on..

[flplantguy]

It feels like a larger version of the normal pattern, but like the old one from last year won't let go. Its interesting how it parrallels el nino fading out. Crossing my fingers for an epic but safe southwest monsoon and florida rainy season.  First the heat, then the wet!

[Silas_Sancona]

25 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

It feels like a larger version of the normal pattern, but like the old one from last year won't let go. Its interesting how it parrallels el nino fading out. Crossing my fingers for an epic but safe southwest monsoon and florida rainy season.  First the heat, then the wet!

Some similarities, but the differences are adding up quick..

For now, i'll say this:  As far as Monsoon Season goes,  We all know how bad it was last year ( .80" here / .15" in Phoenix proper )  Avrg for Phoenix is 2.43"  Can't recall what it is here / the valley-wide avrg. off the top of my head  but thinking it's in the 3-5" range, if i remember right.. No worries if wayyy off.  anyway,

Even if this year isn't wet, technically,  if Phoenix sees 1-2",  which would still be below normal / I see 2 or more inches, but still below what is average here,  that is wet compared to last year.. I'd be more than happy w/ that.

Don't want it to be a super -soaker ( like ..or better.. than '21 )  because i can't get down to research spots by the border this summer anyway. Get enough rainfall so everything has a good growth / reproductive cycle this year?  perfect... 

Next summer?  Flood  everything /  Rains so much that even the driest corners of W. TX / N.M,  AZ,  S. and S.E. CA,  and Mexico are turned as lush and green as is physically possible..   A pipe dream perhaps but so was 2021, until the rains started,  ..Extra wet repeat would be nice, lol. 


Florida / rest of the Gulf / E. Coast is going to be interesting this year..  I hope everyone has their plans in place  now..

[SeanK]

On 6/3/2024 at 3:00 PM, Foxpalms said:

Is that up north near Manchester?

Northwich?

[flplantguy]

There is a signal already for the 11th and12th, so that may wake people up here if they have not planned. Last year lives on in my head and hopefully others too, an RI from nada to cat 5 in hours was insane and could easily happen in the gulf too.

[Silas_Sancona]

10 minutes ago, flplantguy said:

There is a signal already for the 11th and12th, so that may wake people up here if they have not planned. Last year lives on in my head and hopefully others too, an RI from nada to cat 5 in hours was insane and could easily happen in the gulf too.

Noticed that as well..

We'll see, but that feature, should it pan out,  might play a good sized role in finally kicking the overall pattern out the fuzzy -eyed post El Nino hangover..

Regardless,  agree 100%,  apparent escalation of RI systems in both basins over the last decade or so has been pretty eye opening ..Or, should be to more people.

Was reading something last night about how parts of Belize are hot and as dry as CA is in summer right now, w/ numerous wildfires across the area..  Person who mentioned it added in the obvious after effect concern should that area see a big hurricane event that dumps a lot of rain this year.

Not sure if you saw this yet but this was the latest thoughts on the Hurricane season from the ECMWF:  Like i mentioned, hoping folks are ready,  already.  Intrigued by the " Usual expected value " shading off the w/ coast of Mexico..













Then again, if the 4C / Bermuda High is strong / extensive and nudged a touch north over the center of the U.S. from this point forward, i can see the potential of Gulf or lower Caribbean systems working their way west across S. Mexico and trying to re develop into a storm off the S.W. coast there.

We'll see i guess..




 

[sandgroper]

Currently 14c at 6.30am heading for a top of 24c. The forecast is for a clear morning with rain coming back in late this afternoon. 

[Silas_Sancona]

 Afternoon check in: 108 at 3:38PM. Lots of 110 / low 110 teens on the board across the valley as well.




 

That time of year to see how far W / N.W. AZ are faring ..Pretty toasty in a few spots..



Can't remember the last time it reached 100 / low 100s in the Bay Area in early  June..  An hour or so left to max out before temps start falling out there.










 

[Foxpalms]

23 hours ago, SeanK said:

Northwich?

It is normally a few c cooler up there. Sun and clouds mix is very common for that area. 

[SeanK]

59 minutes ago, Foxpalms said:

It is normally a few c cooler up there. Sun and clouds mix is very common for that area. 

I think I went to a zoo and there was Trachycarpus and G.manicata.

[flplantguy]

No June gloom this year? Yikes.

[Silas_Sancona]

Hovering between 104 and 105F as we head through the noon hour..  Should end up somewhere between 110-112F later..  We'll see if Sky Harbour breaks the daily high record as well..  Slowly, but surely, high clouds ..and the slightest bump in moisture... continue to increase from the south / southeast. Clear now, but expect more clouds to build in by Sunset..

W/ a week and a day to go before the NOAA's  start of Monsoon Season 2024,  a quick look at what is going on  on Satellite  across Mexico and the Southwestern U.S. atm..



Most obvious feature is the first decent flare up of storms getting going across far the Sierra Madre Occidental ( SMOc ) in S. Chihuahua / Durango that is also trying to spread a touch further north over the mountains,  and over Coahulia / Davis Mountains in far W/ TX, and further south along the Sierra Madre Oriental ( SMOr ) w/ some build ups trying to make something of themselves over various mountain " islands "  in N.M and up in the rim country in both W' rn N.M. and E' rn AZ.

Can also see the counter clockwise rotation of the COL evolving off S. central Baja / subsequent s / southeasterly flow across N 'rn Chihuahua and Sonora closer to home.

Extensive Smoke across Central and S. Mexico, lack of any significant storm activity down there is pretty evident as well unfortunately.. 

Heat up here is locked in for the next couple days at least, before perhaps a quick break, ..before the next  ..possibly more significant round of heat returns. 

First good push of Monsoon onset conditions might begin to stir around the same time. 🤞

[sandgroper]

Very overcast today after torrential rain overnight, heading for 21c.

[DTS]

Currently 64 out. Next Saturday it’s going to get to 92 degrees outside

[UK_Palms]

Temperatures are crap here and it is looking like a very cool, lacklustre start to summer for us. Average max of around 20C / 68F for the first week of June here and in London with average sunshine levels at best. It hasn’t been cold and nasty, but it hasn’t been warm and good either.

However at least it has been dry. With just 0.2mm / 0.007 inches of rainfall at Heathrow for the first 7 days of summer, the past 7-10 days have been the driest in 9+ months since way back last summer. Despite the -NAO and northerly arctic airflow with low pressure systems, the rainfall suppression is still noticeable.

Heathrow stats…

Really quite abysmal temperatures over the next week or two. More like cool-summer Med than warm-summer Med.

 

This is going to be a backloaded summer this year, with July being much warmer, but August being the hottest and driest month. Right now we are stuck with a -NAO setup, meaning there is no Atlantic influence at all really from the Azores High. The airflow is coming directly from the arctic, so the hPa temps are crap right now. Again, at least it is fairly dry for now. Most of June is looking quite poor though overall at this point. It will likely get worse before it gets better.

All eyes on summer solstice now… my favourite day of the year frankly. Signs of improvement by then, hopefully.

[Silas_Sancona]

107F at 2:17PM scratch that, ..108.. ..with a Dew Point sitting at 32deg / humidity at .......7% ..making 107 feel like 102..

Some mid / high clouds slowly edging their way northwest out of S.E. AZ while the rest of the state bakes..  Not gonna post it today, but some decent, though tempered storm activity ongoing across the Sierra Madre Occidental, Chihuahua, and Durango on Satellite atm.  That should send another pulse of moisture N / N.W. into AZ later.  Some weak storms across portion of the mountain islands in cen. N.M. as well

Hot today, " cooler " if you want to call it that,  for the weekend,   then  ..hot or " oven temp. max out " kind of heat  ..depending on the forecast..  for next week..  Any pre- Monsoon preview moisture for AZ takes a break,  unfortunately.



That said, just a week to go before the best season in the Sonoran Desert dawns..  ..Ok, most years.. 

Adding to that, June thoughts from the NMME are out ..Monsoon season forecasts still not lookin' all that great up here, but ..we'll see. Thoughts are thoughts, ..not things.. Sometimes, the NMME doesn't hit the bullseye in their suggested forecasts.  regardless, My thoughts soon.

July:




Aug:




Sept:







**** Additionally, it may only be June ..so wayyyyy out in fantasy land at this point,  but, posting the first glimpse into what the NMME's thought are as it concerns the 1st half of the winter to come.

   Some pretty strong signals it appears, but ..again ..similar thoughts have fallen flat in the past ...so,  take what you see below  with a bowl of salt / bucket of Limes, ...for now..  That said, they aren't alone.. so .....We'll see what they look like again in October. Outlook will be well into spring by then.


Regardless, could be a much different winter looming on the horizon, Esp. for the Southwest / CA.....



Nov ..Temps / Precip:







Dec Temps / Precip:






Jan  Temps / Precip:

[Foxpalms]

On 6/6/2024 at 8:27 PM, SeanK said:

I think I went to a zoo and there was Trachycarpus and G.manicata.

Further west of there on the Welsh/English border, I have family members who have an unprotected washingtonia there which is inland not near the sea. Has been there for at least 14 or more years. Slower growing than mine here in London but still puts out a lot of frons per year at 53N! 

[Foxpalms]

12 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

 

It seems like it will go from very cool to very warm towards the end of the month. The humidity has been very low in central London. 17.5c on the 5th with 31% humidity here. The 2 week forecast here is showing 4.5mm of rain so very dry. Today hit 20c here so exceeding the forecast as per usual in the sunshine from this morning. 

[Foxpalms]

I mentioned before the whole middle east region and north African region has been extremely hot. I was looking at Egypt the past week and it looks like it might be the hottest June on record there. Well today Aswan Egypt forecasted to be 49c rose all the way up to 51c a new record high for Egypt. We also have to bare in mind the country doesn't have a ton of weather stations and it is likely in that region it probably got even hotter. Where the temp was recorded at the airport it is not too far from a very large lake which likely slightly cooled the temps. I remember when I was there and it was 50c at the airport weather station, driving 4-5 miles away from the lake and it felt even hotter. It will cool down there this week to 44c! Then back to 48c on the 20th. The average high for there is supposed to be 42c for June.

[sandgroper]

Currently 15c heading for a rainy top of 21c, winter has arrived. Looks like some rain every day for the coming week.