What is your current yard temperature?

[Palm Sundae]

Survived the first couple 110+ days of the year. Should get another handful over the coming fortnight. Just a few more months of summer, hoping to get enough rain to turn off the irrigation and replace a section of it while the ground is wet.

Overnight temps still 70-ish but gradually rising to about 80 in a couple weeks.

Looks like Monsoon won't start for at least a couple weeks.

 

[Silas_Sancona]

86 at 11:26PM as some clouds move in from the south ahead of ...maybe...a few sprinkles tomorrow..

Heat is still on, may turn it down a notch tomorrow as a COL that had been sitting off Baja wanders east across AZ tomorrow and early Friday.

While moisture is quite lacking across N.W. Mexico atm,  the tug between this weak system to our west and stronger high pressure to the east will exert just enough pull to draw up some of it across AZ tomorrow leading to a very slight chance of a few showers for the deserts tomorrow / maybe a few storms for the mountains, esp across N.E. AZ overnight tomorrow into Friday.  Even w/ out the chances for spit, should be a good day for cloud viewing across the state tomorrow.




Heat returns ..for a few days.. over the upcoming Father's Day weekend.   Maybe another -slight- cool down as we enter the first week of Monsoon Season ( ...NOAA's definition ) before ...Perhaps some signs of life, from the Monsoon??   as we reach Astronomical Summer.  


First bump up in Dew Points, possible shower / storm chances for the mountains showing up across the board, esp. from Tucson on south  down in Sonora in the current 10 day could be a sign,  but,  ....We'll see. 







Unfortunately, the Wx stations that used to be up and running in Alamos proper appear to be offline or are no longer in service, so, closest station to gauge what is happening in that area of Sonora will be this station in Navojoa, closer to the coast.  Still show a nice Dew Point  bump up into the 65-70deg range, some shower/ storm chances ..slight as they appear to be for now..


One  patient  step at a time...

[Brian]

Down on the west coast of Mexico we finally got out of the strong west wind pattern and have had southernly flow over the last few days. Humidity has also increased quite a bit. No rain yet but with low pressure forming south of us and on the gulf side it’s starting to feel more like summer. Whats strange is the low south of us is moving backwards compared to the normal pattern. Hopefully it reverses course and moves North.
 

 

[sandgroper]

A beautiful sunny winters day at the beach, currently 21c.

[SeanK]

2 hours ago, sandgroper said:

A beautiful sunny winters day at the beach, currently 21c.

Indeed, a beautiful winter day!

[sandgroper]

25 minutes ago, SeanK said:

Indeed, a beautiful winter day!

Unfortunately they're not all like this, the rain comes back in from tomorrow afternoon but I like to get out and enjoy the good days when they are here.

[Tyrone]

Coldest minimum of the year this morning. 3C. Nothing to worry about. Still a lot of winter to go yet, but we are a week from the solstice. Next Thursday morning is looking to be cool as well. Maybe a 1 or 2C. Still not too bad either, as we enter the coldest time of the year down here. Going for a max of 20C today and sunny. 

[Palm Sundae]

A pleasant 87 at 9PM with 9% humidity, dewpoint at 26 with an expected overnight low slightly above 70.

Plenty of 110+ days on tap ahead but not every day, thankfully. My yard is mostly doing well though.

[Silas_Sancona]

A toasty, but reasonable 104F at 11:38AM on your Father's Day Sunday,  ...headed for the 108-112F range around town later.

An interesting week ahead as the Astronomical start of Summer 2024,  and the final half of June arrives..


While a trough passing over the U.S. Canadian border region may help pull temps back a little locally to start the week, some bigger changes, inc. the first sign of Monsoon 2024 may greet us as the longest day of the year arrives..

*** Subject to change of course as we get closer ***  but,  majority of model runs over the past several days have been hinting at the 4 corners ridge finally starting to set up in an ideal spot,  and an easterly wave - induced push of moisture moving into the Southwest ..and Mexico..   by weeks end..

Late week " thoughts " are on the board,  across the board  on the current 10 day forecast from Wx Underground.















**FYI: the " Florida " station is referencing Florida Canyon,  a sister canyon next to Madera Canyon in the Santa Rita Mountains..



 Since Madera Canyon has no Wx stations atm,  Wx station at the research site in FL. Canyon will serve as a reference point for gauging what is going on over Madera Canyon / Mt. Wrightson / Hopkins..  .... Major " trigger " points in the Santa Ritas  for thunderstorm activity across the Tucson Basin / Central Borderlands region this time of year.


..At the very least, high country / rim, and S.E. AZ could start seeing some storms ...High- based at first, but potentially wetter by the start of next week ..if the pattern holds.

Better ridge placement / deeper push of moisture from the east?  Perhaps some sprinkles / widely scattered showers make it into the low deserts, Tucson esp..

12Z total QPF,  thru July 2nd, is fairly bullish  ..for now..





Looking decent in Mexico as well...




At the absolute very least, as it looks right now,  Dew Points / Pwat values may reach the threshold for " official " start to the season by next Sunday. 

As referenced in the Monsoon '24 " thread, while the NOAA's season is a boxed in section of the year, the " old " rule of  " 3 straight days of Dew points at / above 54-55Deg / Pwat  Values at / above 1"  "  still apply for defining when rains are on their way..

If things play out as suggested currently,  is possible that Pwat values reach 150% of normal ( for this time of year ) on one or two days by next weekend as well.   Was referenced in the morning Wx discussion from the PHX NWS



Tucson NWS:





..Regardless of whether or not any decent storm activity actually  reaches even the far eastern fringes of the valley ..or my front doorstep.. by next Sunday,  This is a great way to kick off this year's Monsoon season..

.....Something fun to watch,  ...Fingers Crossed....  I'm Ready to go for sure

[Silas_Sancona]

94F at 9:43AM ..on the way to a " cooler " 106F ..vs. 112F yesterday.  A  frigid ( ..enough to start complaining about it ) 103F anticipated tomorrow before the 11 - teens set in going forward..

At the same time? increase in moisture / possible low desert spit and high elevation / S.E. AZ storm chances  still on the board as we start Astro Summer..




Obviously, devil is still in the finite details as we get closer to the end of the week.. 🫰

Tucson NWS  morning discussion"



PHX NWS:





Regardless,  one of the days this coming weekend ( Blue  Dotzz' )  will signal the official kickoff of Monsoon 2K24 in most parts of S. AZ.    Could approach borderline sweaty stickiness ( 60 / 60+deg Dew Points ) in both Safford and Nogales at times over the upcoming weekend..




...We'll see if this part of the state follows suite, or takes a couple more days to get there.

That said, looking at today's 10 day forecast, nothing but +40Deg Dew Points from Friday forward  ..so we're gettin' there.

  NO complaining

[Tyrone]

It felt freezing today, with a windy rainy 16.3C but it sat around 14C for most of the day. At 9.45pm its 12.5C. Not much difference to the day. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A surprisingly nice 102F at 2:27PM in Mid - June..  ...Quite an uncommon occurrence... Supposed to reach 103-105F over the next hour or so couple hours, but i kinda doubt it will.  Regardless,  enjoying it because it won't last long at all..  BIG changes ahead  shortly..

On today's COD Satellite, you can see the most important player in the weather once we get past tomorrow..



While it is currently pretty quiet across most of Mexico and the U.S. South, it won't stay that way for long as " Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 " ..or whatever it develops into  slams head first into eastern Mexico and S. TX.

Combining with the subtropical high currently giving the Eastern U.S. a taste of  Southern and Southwestern heat  retrograding back towards the 4 corners /  unseasonably strong trough ( hopefully the last one ) shifting east of the Pac. N.W.,  AZ and N.M will quickly fall under a fairly strong ( for the time of year ) surface and mid level southeasterly flow that may bring about an obvious,  early start to Monsoon Season,  and give the rainy season across Mexico a good shove.

While just individual model runs that will likely flip flop between now and Sunday,  some impressive Dew Point / PWAT  numbers being spat out by the 12Z ECMWF AI - FS ( ...among other model runs )  and on the current 10 days from WX Underground..










If you look at the two " Average " Dew Point Charts for both PHX and Tucson, you can see that  the 12z's thoughts of Dew Point readings reaching 69-71deg by June 24th would be quite a bit above normal  ...more " usual " as we head into the heart of the season rather than right at the beginning  here..  Even during the heart of the season, a 70deg D.P. is quite moist.

*** RED line represents Dew Point readings from last year.. ***







Suggested max Dew Point reading over the next few days: 69-71deg D.P readings here, esp. now = stuffy / saucy / fluffy / sch'weatty.. Plants will love it though.  Humidity will climb quite a bit too, adding to the heat index on a couple days..





PWAT values of 2" ..even if only briefly, would be quite unusual for so early on as well.. Anything over 1" is considered wet here..




Equivalent  suggested  PWAT Anomalies for this time of year..



While not shown in any of the " usual " model run data,  Model runs from the AZ- WRF are showing a potential for decent showers / storms?? w/ lightning ( Using the experimental Lightning Activity product on that site ) over the area on the 20th, w more scattered activity around the area beyond ( ...thru the 24th currently ) ..





Just some current thoughts obviously, so we'll see what  actually  occurs but, 

At the very least,  certainly looking like we may be kicking off this year's Monsoon season with a saucy bang,  Right out of the gate..

[sandgroper]

A cold 7c at 5.30am heading for a partly cloudy top of 18c today.

[Silas_Sancona]

2 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

A surprisingly nice 102F at 2:27PM in Mid - June..  ...Quite an uncommon occurrence... Supposed to reach 103-105F over the next hour or so couple hours, but i kinda doubt it will.  Regardless,  enjoying it because it won't last long at all..  BIG changes ahead  shortly..

On today's COD Satellite, you can see the most important player in the weather once we get past tomorrow..



While it is currently pretty quiet across most of Mexico and the U.S. South, it won't stay that way for long as " Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 " ..or whatever it develops into  slams head first into eastern Mexico and S. TX.

Combining with the subtropical high currently giving the Eastern U.S. a taste of  Southern and Southwestern heat  retrograding back towards the 4 corners /  unseasonably strong trough ( hopefully the last one ) shifting east of the Pac. N.W.,  AZ and N.M will quickly fall under a fairly strong ( for the time of year ) surface and mid level southeasterly flow that may bring about an obvious,  early start to Monsoon Season,  and give the rainy season across Mexico a good shove.

While just individual model runs that will likely flip flop between now and Sunday,  some impressive Dew Point / PWAT  numbers being spat out by the 12Z ECMWF AI - FS ( ...among other model runs )  and on the current 10 days from WX Underground..










If you look at the two " Average " Dew Point Charts for both PHX and Tucson, you can see that  the 12z's thoughts of Dew Point readings reaching 69-71deg by June 24th would be quite a bit above normal  ...more " usual " as we head into the heart of the season rather than right at the beginning  here..  Even during the heart of the season, a 70deg D.P. is quite moist.

*** RED line represents Dew Point readings from last year.. ***







Suggested max Dew Point reading over the next few days: 69-71deg D.P readings here, esp. now = stuffy / saucy / fluffy / sch'weatty.. Plants will love it though.  Humidity will climb quite a bit too, adding to the heat index on a couple days..





PWAT values of 2" ..even if only briefly, would be quite unusual for so early on as well.. Anything over 1" is considered wet here..




Equivalent  suggested  PWAT Anomalies for this time of year..



While not shown in any of the " usual " model run data,  Model runs from the AZ- WRF are showing a potential for decent showers / storms?? w/ lightning ( Using the experimental Lightning Activity product on that site ) over the area on the 20th, w more scattered activity around the area beyond ( ...thru the 24th currently ) ..





Just some current thoughts obviously, so we'll see what  actually  occurs but, 

At the very least,  certainly looking like we may be kicking off this year's Monsoon season with a saucy bang,  Right out of the gate..

Almost forgot...

Current ( 12Z ) Total QPF forecast from the ECMWF AI FS thru July 3rd..  GFS / GEFS / GEPS have been had similar thoughts through the same time period. Not a wash out, but not too bad either,  esp. right out of the gate .



Across Mexico....

[Tyrone]

9.5C at 6.30am going for a top of 17C and some rain.

[LowDesertBoil]

9:04 PM and currently 89F

[UK_Palms]

23.1C / 73F max on Tuesday. Currently 22.2C / 72F here at midday today. Temps are around average now but the lacklustre start to summer continues until this weekend really. From Sunday onwards proper summer arrives.

Could do with some rain now. I am spending 1-2 hours every evening after work hand-watering my garden and allotment. So much stuff has been wilting or just not growing. I have too many potted palms and plants as well to keep up with the watering demands. Even peppers in the ground are wilted badly every 2 days or so.

‘Summer’ is still yet to get going really as well. I could end the month on 0.3 inches of rain here looking at the forecast. Heathrow is on 0.4 inches. Portland 0.2 inches. Throw in some potentially ‘hot’ scenarios at month end and things could get interesting. 👀

 

[Silas_Sancona]

97F at 11:30am w/ a south wind / slight ..but noticeable bump in Dew Points as we await the arrival of a whole lot of steam  ...and maybe the first storms of the season  starting tomorrow..

Can see TS. Alberto cranking away in the Gulf of Campeche atm on satellite. Note too the large surge of moisture quickly huffin it west across TX / another surge of moisture headed south / southwest down the S.E. side of N.M. towards El Paso., and the vague East to west moving Gravity Wave just off the Southern tip of Baja ... A good sign the overall mid/ upper level Atmo. Flow is turning easterly - dominated.




Southeasterly / easterly winds should start cranking across S. N.M. /  E. and S.E. AZ later today / tonight - Friday..  Could cause fire -related issues down there if any are ignited before deeper moisture promoting wetting rains builds in.. Could also whip up some dust ahead of any storm activity that generates it's own dust.


Hot ..for a few days   before all the moisture headed our direction may tamp down the heat a little .." Air " temp. at least.. steamy / sultry / stuffy ..etc.. Gonna be a bit  steam - bathy  out there going forward.  May waver a touch next week, but overall, Dew Points may not drop below 40 for the next several days across the board..


















Last full run from the AZ WRF painting a pretty strong area of storms right over the East valley tomorrow afternoon





..Since, like any other Wx Model,  the WRF has many imperfections in it's forecast suggestions,  we'll see what happens..

I'd be more inclined to think storms  ..if we actually see any..  will form more toward the evening than late afternoon, esp. right at the start of the season    ..That said,  ..weirder things have happened..


Regardless, Iso. to at least scattered daily storm chances appear to continue thru the upcoming weekend -at least-


Slightly different thoughts but overall, today's 06Z /12Z GFS QPF suggestions pan out     ..that is a decent start to Monsoon Season..  ECMWF AI FS has also continued to be fairly consistent in it's run to run QPF suggestions for the next 10- 12 days..  We'll see..








 

[sandgroper]

Currently a cold 6c at 6.00am heading for a mostly sunny 19c.

[Silas_Sancona]

101F at 6:31PM as we await  one heck of a S' easterly surge lurking just beyond the eastern horizon..

Satellite check in as the sun gets ready to set and ....there it is, ...quickly cutting it's way across Western and Central New Mexico.. 



As obvious as it is on the imagery, can only imagine how massive the wall of dust must be as it quickly roars it's way west down I 10 swallowing up all the east bound drivers in it's way...

S. New Mexico has been extremely dry for quite sometime, so there is plenty of loos soil to get pushed around down there..

Would be interesting if it stayed light long enough to see what happens when the wall of dust rolls over the wildfire burning in far E. AZ

At this pace, i won't be surprised if   ...whatever haze is left over,  is on our doorstep by the morning..
 

[Fukuoka Scott]

Have had a few 30C days down at our house in town, now about 24C and rainy (it's the rainy season). We're at our place in the mountains where it is currently 18C. The only palms we see up here are Trachycarpus but they're naturalized and come up wild all over the place...

[Silas_Sancona]

12 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

** At this pace, i won't be surprised if   ...whatever haze is left over,  is on our doorstep by the morning..
 

86F at 7:48AM on a hazy Thursday morning..

** As thought, the massive dust storm that roared through N.M. yesterday afternoon / evening is currently entering this side of the valley atm..  Easy to pick out where the " dust front is on this mornings Satellite imagery..



Can already see buildups starting to form over the higher terrain directly east / southeast of town as well..

Also as thought, Unfortunately, the same dust storm caused -at least- one massive pile up that  sent numerous people to the hospital yesterday as well.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-06-20-new-mexico-pileup-interstate-dust-storm


Very interesting day ahead as we cook before any relief arrives.. Even with moisture increasing thru the day, Temps. should make it to -at least- 112 ..maybe as high as 115F before any storms / associated outflow event reaches town later.

That said, high possibility of the season's first significant Dust Storm / Haboob event if the forecasts for strong storm development from a line just east of the valley thru Tucson pans out..


With the initial moisture surge passing through the E. Valley atm rather than being a touch slower/ still hung up in the high country, can see storms forming a little closer to town ..as suggested on some of yesterday's AZ -WRF model thoughts compared to those so far this morning and last night.  We'll see..

Regardless,  Monsoon season 2024 has arrived..  ..As has  our " Cicada Season " ..as of 7:45PM yesterday.  Yes, i keep track when they emerge / start calling here each year.   Important harbinger of when Monsoon season arrives.


More later...

[Silas_Sancona]

2: 10PM check in: 110F Humidity at 18% / D.P. 55deg =  a " feels like " of 113F  under breezy haze and some storms trying to get going just east of town..

Alberto ..err, what's left of him quickly speeding west across Central Mexico.  Hard to see but the first bolts of some storms forming east of here on the Sat. map too.  " Main " plume of moisture expected to arrive locally still hanging back a little..



Crazy to think this storm could end up bringing showers to somewhere in Cen. / Southern Baja later, let alone that it is still reasonably intact. 


Even wilder? ...This, from the Los Angeles NWS.. 




Another Marine Wx statement was just hoisted for the waters off San Diego ( 2:13PM )


An unusual occurrence in late June.  Typically, any Tropical systems originating in the Gulf of Mexico  / Caribbean that manage to make it west across Mexico w/ out getting completely shredded during the trip, you'd expect to see these kinds of events occur in mid / late July, or Aug,  instead of late June...

Another possible system in the Gulf may end up trying to make a similar trip west across Mexico ...before the 4th..



Checking it, one or two days w/ storm chances in the 20 - 40% range for San Diego County this weekend as well. won't be surprised if chances are upped a little / spread around a bit more by Saturday.

Keep forgetting to mention that it Looks pretty warm across most other areas of CA as well on this first weekend of Astro. Summer..

 

[sandgroper]

Currently a cold 7c at 6.00am heading for a mostly sunny 20c on this winter solstice. Finish work early today so I'll go down the beach for a walk later.

[Palm Sundae]

111 at 4:30 with 13% humidity and dewpoint at 47.

Theoretical chance of rain tomorrow evening with no expected accumulation.

Feels like August, calendar says June. Lost some of my seedlings - okay because I always start with a lot more than I want to wind up with (not a nursery!)

[Silas_Sancona]

10PM check: 95F with a Dew Point of 60 deg / 31% humidity..

No storms made it into town today but a very muted outflow boundary that did manage to make it out of the foothills was enough to cut the temperature from 111F to 102F right before sunset and bring the obvious scent of rain in the desert into town, and  bring dew points up over 50deg again, ..and add a little extra dust to our already hazy skies.

Sizzlin'  again tomorrow before clouds shearing off remnant TD Alberto reach the valley..   Storm chances may be better in town as well now that the initial moisture boundary where storm activity was focused today has slide further west.    We'll see.

Keeping an eye on the circulation of Alberto as it reaches the Gulf of CA since it appears there is a nice burst of thunderstorm activity as it enters the gulf just north of Mazatlan, roughly due west of La Paz, Baja Sur..


Gulf of CA is obviously too narrow for any real re-development as the circulation crosses but, ...maybe a nice flare up occurs before crossing Central Baja..  Interesting regardless.

[Than]

On 6/13/2024 at 9:59 AM, Silas_Sancona said:

86 at 11:26PM as some clouds move in from the south ahead of ...maybe...a few sprinkles tomorrow..

Heat is still on, may turn it down a notch tomorrow as a COL that had been sitting off Baja wanders east across AZ tomorrow and early Friday.

While moisture is quite lacking across N.W. Mexico atm,  the tug between this weak system to our west and stronger high pressure to the east will exert just enough pull to draw up some of it across AZ tomorrow leading to a very slight chance of a few showers for the deserts tomorrow / maybe a few storms for the mountains, esp across N.E. AZ overnight tomorrow into Friday.  Even w/ out the chances for spit, should be a good day for cloud viewing across the state tomorrow.




Heat returns ..for a few days.. over the upcoming Father's Day weekend.   Maybe another -slight- cool down as we enter the first week of Monsoon Season ( ...NOAA's definition ) before ...Perhaps some signs of life, from the Monsoon??   as we reach Astronomical Summer.  


First bump up in Dew Points, possible shower / storm chances for the mountains showing up across the board, esp. from Tucson on south  down in Sonora in the current 10 day could be a sign,  but,  ....We'll see. 







Unfortunately, the Wx stations that used to be up and running in Alamos proper appear to be offline or are no longer in service, so, closest station to gauge what is happening in that area of Sonora will be this station in Navojoa, closer to the coast.  Still show a nice Dew Point  bump up into the 65-70deg range, some shower/ storm chances ..slight as they appear to be for now..


One  patient  step at a time...

That "spit" made me ROFL hahahaha!!!!!! Here we have 110F and 18% humidity and strong hot wind today. I almost lost my Tipuana cos I forgot to water her yesterday. She looks better today thankfully.

[Tyrone]

A min of 4.1C and a sunny max of 18.2C on this winter solstice shortest day. May the daylight lengthen from here on. 

[UK_Palms]

24.9C / 77F at midday here. Not as sunny as yesterday unfortunately, but still on 0.3 inches of rain for the month. Some decent warmth coming next week.

 

UKV (Met Office) has 30-31C / 86-88F for Tuesday.

[Silas_Sancona]

113 at 3:30PM after hitting the hottest reading of the year so far ( 115F ) under hot, breezy high clouds..

Some 120F neighborhood readings on the board as well.  Note the " chilly " readings in the lower -100s over Queen Creek / San Tan Valley ..That is thanks in part to better cloud cover over that part of the east valley thru the day, and a very brief pop up storm that blew up over the San Tans, and died less than 15 mins. later as it moved north away from the mountains.. 














..Fresh off the press:  117F at Sky Harbour,  which ties the record of 117,  set in   ....2017.

They also broke their morning low record with a low of 92F ..old record of 90F was set in ....2017..   Think we only bottomed out at 88F



Better storms trying to form down toward Tucson atm..  We'll see if any of that activity reaches this side of the valley later..


Outer- most moisture band of former Alberto still slowly creeping west / Northwest across AZ, struggling to get across the state a bit under the stiff, southwesterly flow being generated by a trough of low pressure stubbornly hanging around just off the CA coast..  That should finally get kicked outta here overnight, allowing better S. easterly flow to anchor in over AZ ..at least thru the weekend..



At the same time, what is left of Alberto's circulation, and a good push of moisture from a follow - on Easterly Wave / Inverted trough currently getting ready to make landfall somewhere near Tampico, Mexico should add some moisture over the region for the next couple days helping to provide better storm chances.


4 corners high might wander around for a few days nearby while strengthening a little, thus turning down storm chances a hair locally for the start of next week before moving back into a better position to our north / northeast as June ends next weekend.. 

With a bowl of Salt sitting nearby, a look at today's 10, 14, and 3 week outlook thoughts...  Not too bad..












That said, a look at the AO ..and where it may trend..  Not too bad either..



....So,  ...We'll see what happens...

 

[sandgroper]

Currently 16c at 7.00am heading for a top of 19c.  A rainy start to the day with a possible thunderstorm but clearing later in the day. A cool damp week ahead for Perth.

[Silas_Sancona]

17 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

113 at 3:30PM after hitting the hottest reading of the year so far ( 115F ) under hot, breezy high clouds..

Some 120F neighborhood readings on the board as well.  Note the " chilly " readings in the lower -100s over Queen Creek / San Tan Valley ..That is thanks in part to better cloud cover over that part of the east valley thru the day, and a very brief pop up storm that blew up over the San Tans, and died less than 15 mins. later as it moved north away from the mountains.. 














..Fresh off the press:  117F at Sky Harbour,  which ties the record of 117,  set in   ....2017.

They also broke their morning low record with a low of 92F ..old record of 90F was set in ....2017..   Think we only bottomed out at 88F



Better storms trying to form down toward Tucson atm..  We'll see if any of that activity reaches this side of the valley later..


Outer- most moisture band of former Alberto still slowly creeping west / Northwest across AZ, struggling to get across the state a bit under the stiff, southwesterly flow being generated by a trough of low pressure stubbornly hanging around just off the CA coast..  That should finally get kicked outta here overnight, allowing better S. easterly flow to anchor in over AZ ..at least thru the weekend..



At the same time, what is left of Alberto's circulation, and a good push of moisture from a follow - on Easterly Wave / Inverted trough currently getting ready to make landfall somewhere near Tampico, Mexico should add some moisture over the region for the next couple days helping to provide better storm chances.


4 corners high might wander around for a few days nearby while strengthening a little, thus turning down storm chances a hair locally for the start of next week before moving back into a better position to our north / northeast as June ends next weekend.. 

With a bowl of Salt sitting nearby, a look at today's 10, 14, and 3 week outlook thoughts...  Not too bad..












That said, a look at the AO ..and where it may trend..  Not too bad either..



....So,  ...We'll see what happens...

 

Forgot to add ..since it is " Show your stripes Day "  a look at how much Phoenix and various cities nearby and in California have warmed.. ..Because it matters..

Arizona / AZ Cities:












CA / CA. cities:




















 

[Tyrone]

The max of 16C occurred at 3am today then it dropped to around 10C then up to 14C  for a bit.Then the cold front came in and at 2pm it’s 9.6C.

[Brian]

Max yesterday was 32c with an overnight low of 25c. The good news is that we finally got the first rain of the 2024 rainy season. It wasn’t much but being already one month into the rainy season we are glad to finally get something. 
 

[Brian]

Keeping fingers crossed for a bit more rain.

 

[sonoranfans]

Ellenton florida, 88F raining hard right now.

[UK_Palms]

26.4C / 79F at 12:30pm. Looking at a max of 27-28C / 81-82F.

 

The rainfall suppression is ridiculous given the somewhat unfavourable setup this month. Lots of low pressure around this month but still unable to deliver much, if any precipitation. Parts of Hampshire are still on 0.3mm / 0.01 inches this month.

Last nights ECMWF run has zero rainfall for southeast England on the entirety of the run, which goes out to 10 days. That is with more low pressure and lacklustre temps as we go into July. But the precipitation block is still evident there.

 

The English Channel is one of the main drivers for the precipitation block. The cool waters dissipate any moisture coming across from the continent. Atlantic systems also lose all their strength and intensity as they cross over land from the west. You can see on the 18z GFS how much rainfall accumulation the European continent has out to 9th July, compared to southern England in the top left corner, showing like 4mm for the next 16 days. A huge gradient. Northern Germany and Italian Alps region looking very wet.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 64.4f/18c max of 82.4f/28c with 39% humidity, higher humidity than usual, though at one point the humidity was 49% with a temp of 27c. The grass in London has really started to die as it has been very dry. The Bermuda grass in the garden is more resistant but still requires lots of watering.  The temp was still over 80f at 8pm.  Tues,Wed now have no cloud forecasted so that forecasted 29c could very easily become 30c.

 

[UK_Palms]

50 minutes ago, Foxpalms said:

Min of 64.4f/18c max of 82.4f/28c with 39% humidity, higher humidity than usual, though at one point the humidity was 49% with a temp of 27c. The grass in London has really started to die as it has been very dry. The Bermuda grass in the garden is more resistant but still requires lots of watering.  The temp was still over 80f at 8pm.  Tues,Wed now have no cloud forecasted so that forecasted 29c could very easily become 30c.

 

My lawn is going quite a bit. Pictures taken tonight at 9pm.

7.8mm / 0.30 inches this June. I had a 28.2C / 82F max today.

Warm one tonight. 20.7C / 69F here at 11pm. Central London is about 23-24C / 75F at 11pm. Could be a few tropical nights in places (20C+ min).

[Palm Sundae]

110 with 21% humidity. Feels like 113. Not like 118 or 120 but yes, I am complaining.

Still waiting on first monsoon rain. 🙃