What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

Afternoon after some decent rain =  not too bad. " Only " 107F at 3:03PM ..113F when adding in a 60deg. Dew Point, 30% humidity atm..  Will we get summ'ore this evening??  

Storms up on the rim / White Mtns atm, +  Decent amount of moisture / CAPE hanging around, and just enough mid / upper level flow out of the N and N.E on the east side of the 4c's High to carry something off the foothills and into the lower deserts later ..if it all comes together..  Some model runs bring a chance of storms to the east valley by evening, other runs keep all activity outside the immediate area  ..We'll see who gets it right..


After tonight, activity retreats to far East and S. East AZ for the weekend / start of next week - at least- as the trough i'd mentioned last night passes through the far N'rn U.S.



How quickly the high rebounds mid to late week? ..just have to wait and see. Blue arrows represent the best thought scenario of where the center of it heads next..  Yellow " 1 and 2 " represent other thoughts on it's path / position by next Wednesday.




Other thing to note on this screen grab: Orange circles = major on -going fires in CA.. Biggest = Park ..at over 100,000+ acres north of Sacramento.. Smaller fire in the S. Sierra is the Trout Fire ..Think it is around 22 or 23K acres now.

Park fire, started by some dumb A**  jumped from nothing to 100K+ acres in less than 38 Hours.. Conditions going into the weekend / next week assure this fire will continue to grow unfortunately.

Some hints moisture may try to increase across Cen and S. Cal in today's 10, and 14 day outlook that should be watched closely ( for possible rounds of lightning - related storm activity )

Also looks like another big heat event is on the horizon..  Plains / N. Rockies = most forecasts, but it could expand over a large chunk of the country, inc. the west coast again as we get into Aug.  ..Something to watch.


Now that we are entering the heart of Monsoon season 2024, a look at rainfall totals, region -wide, since the end of June.

Between the major cities tracked each year by the NWS, Albuquerque  leads the pack.  That said.....

ABQ:



Tucson:





El Paso:



Flag  ( Flagstaff 😞



Still no rain in Yuma, and very little in Vegas..  Only .39" for Phoenix at Sky Harbour..  July average is .91" ..Maybe we can add a little more tonight.

With August 1st to Sept. 1st being the " do or die " portion of the season, we'll see what happens next.  Oddly enough ...and yes, while it doesn't follow this pattern every year, it is something i've noticed that does stick out during most years, heart / end of Monsoon season seems to be when Chandler sees more rainfall ..so,  Fingers crossed we can get some good #'s up on the board over the next few weeks..

Last night was ok,  ..but would definitely appreciate more.


7 day rainfall totals from the Maricopa Co. Flood Control District:









Rainfall totals  June 27th -today, via Rainlog.org.   As you can see, some spots in Tucson / other areas closer to the border have ABQ. beat,  for now..  Not a bad year down there.

Mid- Mountain communities bewteen Flag and Phoenix.. ( Sedona / Prescott )

Ft. Hills N. of PHX

Phoenix Proper..

Pinal CO. ( Maricopa, Casa Grande, Florence / Coolidge, Mammoth Oracle )

Marana / Oro Valley / Catalina

Tucson proper..

S.  and E. Tucson / Tanque Verde area to the east..

Sahuarita / Corona De Tucson

Along the 19 between Sahuarita and Nogales. No rainlog Obvs. stations near / in Madera Canyon unfortunately ...and stations west of the 19.

Sonoita, Patagonia, Nogales ...and areas in the Canelo hills between Sonoita and sierra Vista..

Benson and Whetstone / areas s.w. of Wilcox...

Sierra Vista / Bisbee / Douglas




A side note,  ..since the rumour mill has been swirling  Again... ( Pun intended )  ..and anyone with half a brain knows i do not tolerate misinformation,  NO  ..there was absolutely not a tornado in downtown Phoenix on Wednesday night   ...AGAIN, NO Tornado..

What happened?  Several large warehouses ..and a ton of trees / other property were damaged by some intense storms that exploded right as they passed just west of downtown.  In one incident, a worker was trapped after the roof collapsed on one of the buildings..

Story on that here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/family-waiting-for-answers-as-crews-continue-search-for-missing-phoenix-warehouse-worker/ar-BB1qHhM6

What caused it, ....if it wasn't a tornado?   ..Repeated Microbursts.. intense and wet ones...  

What is a Microburst?  Easy to do some research on the topic.  In this case, winds dropping out of the bottom of the storm were in the 60-80MPH range.

Couldn't copy the full video but this tidbit from the local NWS spells out how these things are tracked/ the signature that shows up on radar when they occur. 

If you go to the PHX NWS's FB page and look at the full video, you'll see what occurred Wed. evening is VERY different from a radar signature that is tornadic.



Was watching the same storms from the house and the microburst signature was easy to tease out of the cloud base during lightning flashes in the distance as the closest storm made a run toward this side of town ( didn't make it ). 

Hard to judge intensity of such events from such a distance in the dead of night however and was a little surprised to hear the initial reports of the major roof collapse as the reports came in.  That said, lightning activity was pretty intense for a time,  which is a good gauge for overall storm intensity when watching one unfold..



.....We'll see what other Monsoon Season Craziness lies in wait as we enter August...

Edited July 26 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[sandgroper]

Currently 13c at 7.30am heading for a sunny top of 20c.

[UK_Palms]

28.3C / 82F at 4pm here. Glorious British summertime weather, but days like this have been too few and far between this summer. No complaints over the next 5-7 days however.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 62.6f/17c with a high of 82f/27.7c with 38% humidity. Max UV index of 7. 

It's currently 63f/17.2c at 5am. The forecast is suggesting a high of 30c/86f.

Here's a pic of the jubaeopsis caffra this morning. Slow growing, but still growing and going pinate during this crap summer. And doesn't seem to be bothered by the neighbors cat constantly digging up the soil around it.

 

[Tyrone]

9 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

Min of 62.6f/17c with a high of 82f/27.7c with 38% humidity. Max UV index of 7. 

It's currently 63f/17.2c at 5am. The forecast is suggesting a high of 30c/86f.

Here's a pic of the jubaeopsis caffra this morning. Slow growing, but still growing and going pinate during this crap summer. And doesn't seem to be bothered by the neighbors cat constantly digging up the soil around it.

 

That’s impressive that you are growing Jubaeopsis in London. 

[SeanK]

30°C, overcast with 70% chance of rain. Our local Lake Lanier is at full pool due to a week of daily intermittent rain. Should dry out tomorrow and warm up with temps above 35°C for later this week.

[UK_Palms]

32.7C / 91F at 2:15pm here. Still around another 2 hours of solar heating left to go before temperatures peak.

[sandgroper]

Currently 15c with clear blue skies heading for a top of 21c. Supposed to have some heavy rain and a thunderstorm coming in later this evening but looks pretty nice right now.

[Tyrone]

It got to 21.9C today with dewpoints around 15C. Thunderstorms and bad weather coming then some cold nights forecast for the weekend. 5C forecast on sat sun morning but the possibility of going down to 1C on both nights, so it could be the coldest nights for this winter. Brrrrrrrrr.

[UK_Palms]

29.0C / 84F at 1pm here. A bit cooler with some cloud cover compared to yesterday. Much more of a breeze as well, although humidity is also higher. 

 

Very difficult night for sleeping last night. It was 28C in my bedroom at 11pm, 22C at the bottom of my garden by an open, exposed field and a balmy 25-26C on my patio area... at 11pm. My bedroom didn’t go below 27C overnight with all windows open! 🥵

 

[tropicbreeze]

We're getting another cold dry surge coming through, this morning's minimum was down to 18.8C after a maximum of 34.8C yesterday. We've just been through about a week of mid to low 20's minimums, and mid to low 30's maximums.
Nights forecast to be cooler for the coming week. UV rating forecast for 10.

[tim_brissy_13]

Down to -1.2C/30F for me again last night. This has been a pretty brutal winter in Melbourne. The only relief we seem to have from near freezing temps are wet days which really doesn’t help. Even things like Chrysalidocarpus decaryi and Ravenea rivularis look pretty ordinary and they are usually bulletproof once established. Thankfully some others seem better than expected. My various Pritchardia only have minor spotting (so far) and Hyophorbe indica is somehow untouched although it is in a slightly protected spot. 

[UK_Palms]

30.3C / 86F here at 2:30pm. Very humid today compared to recent days with a thunderstorm risk for this afternoon.

 

Only 0.8mm / 0.03 inches of rainfall at Heathrow in London over the past 16 days. Fires breaking out left right and centre. About 30 separate incidents this week with 5 active fires at the time of writing this.

 

 

[Foxpalms]

22c in Amsterdam with a cool breeze. It was much warmer yesterday, around 28c. Lots of trachys and med fan palms. I have only seen one washingtonia in a pot and a few potted CIDPS. Very cloudy today.

 

[Tyrone]

Got a cold Antarctic airmass that came over us yesterday. Wednesday night it was 20C at sundown and almost balmy. Then the cold front hit and dropped to 12C. Yesterday the max was 12C and a cold airmass moved over us with a small bit of hail and good rain, then it all cleared and at sundown it was 7C. Forecast min was 6C but you could see the stars all night, so we dropped down to 3C. Tomorrow morning and Sunday morning are forecast 4C. So we may get into that 0-1C zone or even lower. Absolutely no clouds Sunday morning anda high taking control. This is the coldest we’ve got this winter.

[Tyrone]

12 hours ago, tim_brissy_13 said:

Down to -1.2C/30F for me again last night. This has been a pretty brutal winter in Melbourne. The only relief we seem to have from near freezing temps are wet days which really doesn’t help. Even things like Chrysalidocarpus decaryi and Ravenea rivularis look pretty ordinary and they are usually bulletproof once established. Thankfully some others seem better than expected. My various Pritchardia only have minor spotting (so far) and Hyophorbe indica is somehow untouched although it is in a slightly protected spot. 

I will be happy to say goodbye to winter in a few weeks. You’ve had a bad one this year. My C decaryi don’t like it here. They live but don’t thrive. 

[tim_brissy_13]

22 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

I will be happy to say goodbye to winter in a few weeks. You’ve had a bad one this year. My C decaryi don’t like it here. They live but don’t thrive. 

For C decaryi it seems to be the cold and wet combination that hurts them. I never get frost damage, but I get severe brown tipping that honestly extends halfway up the leaflets after bad winters so I suspect it’s some kind of root rot. 
 

1.3C with frost for me again this morning. No cloud cover the next couple of nights either. 

[UK_Palms]

Currently 27.1C / 80F at 5:30pm after a max of 28.3C / 82F here today. A bit cooler than recent days and the first day this week that hasn’t managed to exceed 30C / 86F here.

I don’t think anywhere in the UK has reached 30C / 86F today, but it is the 5th consecutive day above 28C / 82F for London and SE England now. In what has been a lacklustre summer.

 

The outlook is looking a lot cooler now for the next 7-10 days, with temps back to around average. Remaining dry too…

[JeskiM]

99 F  at 3:49 PM

That is the AVG high for this date (August 2nd).  It will be the AVG high until August 14th ....then we start a slow downhill in our temperatures. 

AVG low right now is around 75 F.

-Matt

[sandgroper]

Currently a chilly 9c at 8.15am heading for a sunny top of 19c. A beautiful early morning at the beach.

[Tyrone]

Official min tomorrow morning is 5C but you then read the forecast and it says minimums from 0-5C!  5C variance in the forecast. Windy.com is saying 6C. Lastnight was forecast 4C and we got down to 3C so I’m hoping for something similar tonight, but I will be getting my gas bottles ready just in case the BOM is just miles off. 

[cbmnz]

1 hour ago, Tyrone said:

Official min tomorrow morning is 5C but you then read the forecast and it says minimums from 0-5C!  5C variance in the forecast. Windy.com is saying 6C. Lastnight was forecast 4C and we got down to 3C so I’m hoping for something similar tonight, but I will be getting my gas bottles ready just in case the BOM is just miles off. 

Best of luck. After about 3 weeks since any sub 3C temperatures the spottiness has faded out on all my palms, but are forecast to nudge 0C again this coming week.

[SeanK]

12 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Currently a chilly 9c at 8.15am heading for a sunny top of 19c. A beautiful early morning at the beach.

A beautiful morning and great temps to work in the yard.

[Tyrone]

5 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Best of luck. After about 3 weeks since any sub 3C temperatures the spottiness has faded out on all my palms, but are forecast to nudge 0C again this coming week.

Spring isn’t far away. I can’t wait

[Tyrone]

Dodged a frosty bullet this morning. Minimum was 3C. This year winter has been a 10b event. Got a clear sunny day today before the next cold front moves through. 

[sandgroper]

Currently a cold 7c at 7.00am heading for a partly cloudy top of 20c.

[Tyrone]

Forecast for Saturday is 23C with a heap of double digit nights. Not bad for early August. Still not enough rain though. 

[sandgroper]

Currently 11c at 5.30am heading for a rainy top of 21c. 

[Tyrone]

It’s 20C at about 1pm and a bit of rain is forecast, but the wind is really picking up. It’s the sort of wind that would rip branches down off trees. 

[Tyrone]

Got a banana putting out a flower at the moment. 3C mornings didn’t slow it down. 

[sandgroper]

2 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Got a banana putting out a flower at the moment. 3C mornings didn’t slow it down. 

I drove past a place yesterday that had bunches of bananas hanging off their banana plants, winter hadn't bothered them at all

[Tyrone]

6 hours ago, sandgroper said:

I drove past a place yesterday that had bunches of bananas hanging off their banana plants, winter hadn't bothered them at all

Yeah I’ve got bananas on another plant here as well. A friend in town has bananas on his and he’s growing a mango tree in Albany. 
Today we got to 21.6C and at close to 10.30pm it’s still 16C. I’ve got a Dypsis plumosa just open a flower bract as well. I think Spring is here. 

[Arecaceus]

Dry, sunny and breezy. High of 32.5°C and low of 18.7°C. ☀️🌴

[Silas_Sancona]

A humid 96F at 10:21AM as we await ....DEATH and  DESTRUCTION, LOL!!..  Dun Dun  Dun...

Kidding of course, ..unless you're under the spell of El' Chicken Little the forecaster, Kevin Martin ..AKA Raiden Storm..


Yes, this could be an active storm day across the valley as an approaching Easterly Wave / Inverted Trough,  currently rolling into N. Sonora,  finally provides the potential for some good lift / ideal mid and upper level flow to help get storms off the rim / White Mountains later today..   And yes, it might actually rain, ...for more than 5 or 15 mins. ..and be breezy ( ..W/ the usual side of thick Dust,  cough.. ) ..Maybe some good lightning too!,  Oh my!

On the other hand, " good " storms could miss most ..or all.. of the valley entirely this evening ( some of today's thoughts from the AZ WRF model ) ..maybe sending nothing more than a nice puff of dust our way, again...



But....













  ...Since his other content is questionable, i'll allow anyone inclined to see that stuff to see it on his FB page, rather than post it here.. 

Regardless..


It will be fun to see if  Kevin Martin's " Scare the Chickens " forecast fall flat on their face, ..like many others have..  Or, if he actually gets one right,  like a stuck clock..

Is one thing to advise / make people aware of the potential of some frisky storms later today, ...if they actually occur....

Is another thing to scam folks by telling them that they better listen since their lives will depend on it..  ..And only he knows best..

....Remember kids, your chickens should be in the garage by 6 if you want them to survive  ...Impending DOOM...  Muah Aahh Haa Hah....



Beyond that, perhaps some cracks starting to show up in the " Constantly over 110F lately " Armor

  ..Who knows, maybe we'll face more "  impending doom " after a day or two of atmospheric recovery   ..if we do get some good storms tonight..     Def. need the rain.






Popcorn anyone 🤣 ??

     

[sandgroper]

Currently a rainy 17c at 6.00am heading for a wet top of 20c.

[Silas_Sancona]

Well,  ...Survey Says..





 That's right..  Aside from a couple quick storms that swiped  a couple spots, another total bust ...But that Kevin Martin guy  said it would be EPIC,  WORSE  than a big storm event we'd had in 2021 ( which wasn't all that nasty itself  )..   ..And all the talk of Tornadoes..



What happened to the Tornadoes..  🤷🏽‍♂️


One look at the 48 step Clean Long Wave Irfra Red Sat. thru the late afternoon / evening says it all..  Note the large east to west dry slot east of PHX,  aimed right at the Valley..  Note that nothing popped in that area as the sunset, thus, only a few scattered, pulse- type storms that popped here and there along colliding outflow boundaries..

BIG storm complex did blow up northwest of the Valley before heading west toward Lake Havasu and CA. though.  No Tornadoes there  either.



Yes, there was a quick pop up that passed just to my south, ..and another quick flare up of storms that did a lil damage in Scottsdale and dumped ..7 to 15mins. worth of rain near downtown PHX / some neighborhoods N.W. of downtown ...But,  that has been it.

Wind, and some dust ( not much really )  ..and an ok light show but...  Not a drop here,  ...or pretty much anywhere else across most of the valley..  Or beyond...    Tucson was a big ol' bust too..

At least it is cooler out atm ( 89F at 11:06PM )

Whats funny is ol'  K- Mart was still pushing the " hide in the basement " storm - cast while it was quite obvious we likely wouldn't see anything close to a big storm event tonight.

...And yes,  🤣 local news casters / non - gullible FB folks were taking  Kevo to task today.  Something that should be done as often as possible.








All while, our local NWS had mentioned a big storm day might not happen earlier on.. 



There are still a few storms roaming the desert near Casa Grande,  and just north of Tucson that could push another outflow boundary north ..which could spark a few more pop ups in town ..But no, sorry K- Mart,  ..A big ol' bust for supper,  again..

I'd feel sorry for those who subscribe to his FB pages, but,   ...some folks are just that gullible..  DON'T be one of them.

  Texas, you've been warned ..Unless he abandoned that goal of his, lol.




....Even if they're far from perfect themselves, forecasts from ACTUAL weather experts are the ones to trust the most. Not Chicken Little


 

[Tyrone]

23C on Saturday. The threat of any frost is now gone as days are lengthening nicely. I’m gonna call it.

The Southern Hemisphere winter for 2024 is over!!!!!

[flplantguy]

Two mornigs in a row of 85 degree lows with onshore flow, and highs of 92, after the hurricane passed by.  Yucky weather and not fun for cleanup.  I prefer the passing of an autumn storm with cooler air to this earlier season storm.

[Silas_Sancona]

A fairly tolerable 102F at 1:01PM  under clear humid skies w/ a few puffs floating around..  40% chance of storms suggested for the evening.  We'll see if that includes the neighborhood, lol.

As for the heat? ..110's about done for the season?? or just takin' a break?  We'll see.  Doesn't look too bad for now.



Not bad for Tucson either..




Or Sonoita..  Note the overnight lows. Wish i could get down there to check on things, but, ..Next year.







...We'll see about any rain chances,  locally esp.


On another note: ...Yeahhh, i have questions too.. 



Not trying my hardest to be a total  J A-- ...and yeah, if he did hurt himself, get better..   but, Reality says: ...don't have to dig all that far into his history to see why,  i ( and many others ) have questions,  again..

Since he is apparently the only one anyone can trust w/ the weather,  Oh what will his subscribers do now that he can't make forecasts -for a few days / couple weeks- when death may still loom?

Anyway,

Maybe a sign to cool it on the Adult Beverages,  ..and ditch the Scooter from here forward.

[sandgroper]

Currently 12c at 6.30am heading for a top of 21c.