What is your current yard temperature?

[Tyrone]

We reached 34.4C today. At 8.30pm it’s just above 16C and the lightening and thunder are closing in. No fire tonight. 

[Silas_Sancona]

99F at 7:38PM after adding another 110/ 110+ high to the years' crazy tally, both here and in downtown PHX.  Both are the hottest readings ever recorded in October  -for now at least..  More possible 110's in the forecast for -at least downtown  before next week arrives.

A few " surprise " < ..Not really, if you've followed forecast thoughts from the AZ WRF >  weak showers that managed to roam parts of town / S. Cen. AZ before fully dissipating.  One large cluster of stronger storms currently headed west across the desert down by Ajo atm as well.



Tucson also broke another record as well..  






Heat wasn't restricted to the low deserts here either..  Numerous records fell across parts of CA today as well, including the eye -popping 117F recorded in Palm Springs.




More records from the San Diego NWS:





Los Angeles NWS:   Woodland Hills at 113?  Wow!





A little surprised more records weren't hit around the Bay Area, though 100F in San Jose, at the start of October,  is an accomplishment.

Around 2:35PM our time, there were a even few neighborhoods near San Francisco sitting at / above 100F  and 3 stations  -in the typically cool n' soggy < at times > Santa Cruz Mountains, of all places, that exceeded 110.










Since it is looking hotter in many of the same areas out there tomorrow,  will be interesting to see what records might be broken.



Here, story is the same :  Nuthin' but 100 / 100+ in the current forecast here until  -at least-  next Thursday ( 10 / 10 )

[sandgroper]

A rainy, windy cold top of of only 17c today, quite a contrast to the bright sunny top on Tuesday of somewhere around 30c, I didn't check the temperature on Tuesday.  Not to worry I'll take this any day over the 40c + days of summer.

[Silas_Sancona]

Another day  ..You know the drill. 

Not as bad here today 96 currently ( at 6: 24PM ) after reaching 105F.  Giving the streak a brief break,  PHX only topped out at 108F ..which was still a record.   






Yuma did it again today too...




At one point thru the afternoon, it was actually COOLER here,  ..and in PHX,   than in parts of the S.F.Bay Area / South Bay..  I didn't catch the " top out " numbers, but a few neighborhood stations in the old neighborhood out there exceeded 110.








Officially, San Jose tacked on another record.. I can't recall ever seeing anything above 102F in October out there.




SKEW -T' reading this morning  told the story of just how hot the atmosphere was over the Bay Area.










There was also one point today a few of the hotter spots around San Francisco hit 105F before pulling back later in the afternoon.




As for us?  ....Excessive heat warnings are now extended until  ..Sunday evening..  It now looks like PHX has a chance of reaching / exceeding 110 Friday - Sunday as well..   Also hearing hints that 100 / 100+ heat may extend out thru -at least-  the 15th / 16th..  Which, if that happens < And my math is correct >, may break the # of total days/yr. at /above 100.

At this rate,  Why not go for 105 on Halloween.. Melted Pumpkins vs. Smashed Pumpkins anyone??


Tucson / other areas down there stay toasty as well.. 70's atop Mt. Lemmon ( about 9K ft Elv. ) is hot for October as well.





A fitting thought.. LOL.




...Awaiting record data -if any-  from both the Los Angeles and San Diego NWS,  which i'll add if/when posted.


Also included today is a look at the valley - wide average  for Monsoon 2024,  per data from the Maricopa County Flood Control District ( MCFCD ) .. 

Pretty bad, though better than both last year and 2020...  🤷‍♂️   " Glass half full "  kind of irony i suppose, lol.  Full Monsoon Season wrap up soon.

[Tyrone]

12 hours ago, sandgroper said:

A rainy, windy cold top of of only 17c today, quite a contrast to the bright sunny top on Tuesday of somewhere around 30c, I didn't check the temperature on Tuesday.  Not to worry I'll take this any day over the 40c + days of summer.

Absolutely miserable day here today with a top of 15C very windy and sideways rain nearly all day. At 5pm it was 10C. Absolutely frigid. We haven’t had such a rotten day since the winter of 2023. Since last Friday we’ve had around 70mm of rain which is the wettest few days of the entire calendar year. 

[Silas_Sancona]

Hot, but could be worse.. 106 at 5:08PM..  Toasty but out of the 100's back in San Jose ( upper 80's - lower 90's across the South Bay atm )


Staying toasty here / Warm out there thru the weekend..   That said / Core of Phoenix aside  ..could the end of the 100 / 100+F's FINALLY be in sight??  We'll see. 



While Downtown PHX may stay warmer than here, mornings are definitely back in the preferred zone.



After a warm weekend, temps should pull back to the normal / slightly warmer than normal range around San Jose / South Bay by midweek as well..




Looking at the current CFS / ECMWF weekly forecasts, we'll see if any break in the heat ahead sticks, or is just a temporary reprieve.

Unless a surprise batch of moisture sneaks into the state / region,   ..Stayin' Dry..

[Silas_Sancona]

Toasty here ..Toasty there ..The story of the Weekend across AZ and CA..

90F currently ( 7:37PM ) after reaching 109 in the hood.

While breaking records isn't anything new lately,  the record shattered today in PHX is quite a whopper..  Not only is today's 113 a monthly / " latest in the year " record, the previous record goes back  to  ....1917   That is what  ....107 years? 




Records from Tucson, from yesterday.. Waiting on today's records.



Thinking about the bigger picture, these kinds of warm seasons keep up,  we're not going to have ANY  pre- 1980 or 90 records left to break.




Lotz'a records locally,  and across CA today    ...and yesterday..























While the Excessive Heat products have been extended again ( ...No shocker there ) until -at least-  Tuesday,  overall heat will start to back down  ..by a whisker or two..  thru the week.

That said, still looking at 99 / 99+ by the 15th.

[Silas_Sancona]

A warm -for October- 86F at 10:11PM w/ a few clouds around..  Not too bad otherwise.

Heat hangs on thru the rest of the week ..but is showing signs of finally backing off as we start next week as some troughs passing well to our north start chipping away at the persistent ridge overhead. 


If it holds, could we in the mid 80s / possible lows in the lower 60s  ...by next weekend???     Time shall tell.



Regardless, warmer than average lean seems to hold thru the longer term forecasts, w/ maybe another round of heat rolling in after the possible cool down next weekend.  We'll see..

[metalfan]

We're getting a cool front after Hurricane Milton passes through! Right now it's 69F. Will be in the 80's later today

[UK_Palms]

A chilly 4.6C / 41F at 11pm here under a cold arctic front.

However the clear skies have enabled me to see the northern lights here tonight again. The second strongest display of my lifetime after the ridiculous May event (all 4 times have been this year) after never seeing it before previously. One benefit of not living in a mega-city like London!

Those of you across the pond may want to look north in the next few hours! Should be very visible in the more northern states! 👍

[sandgroper]

Currently 19c at 6.30am heading fir a sunny top of 31c.

[Foxpalms]

On 10/10/2024 at 11:26 PM, UK_Palms said:

A chilly 4.6C / 41F at 11pm here under a cold arctic front.

However the clear skies have enabled me to see the northern lights here tonight again. The second strongest display of my lifetime after the ridiculous May event (all 4 times have been this year) after never seeing it before previously. One benefit of not living in a mega-city like London!

Those of you across the pond may want to look north in the next few hours! Should be very visible in the more northern states! 👍

The sky here was a different color however it definitely did not look like that.

[Silas_Sancona]

A reasonable 89-91F locally at 10:04AM, on the way to the low 100's later ..Could today be one of the last 100F readings of the year?? ..or for now at least??

If the current forecast is correct, that is a good possibility.  PHX proper may see a couple more days at / just above 100 through Indigenous People's Day on Monday,  but ..looking like temps pull back area- wide by mid -week..



Could  bordering - on - sorta - cool WX arrive by next weekend?  if the current forecast holds?.. 


Eyeballing the last several runs of the GFS, perhaps our first " cool season " storm gets a touch closer to the deserts around the same time..

Regardless of any decent cool down / perhaps a few showers nearby, both here and to our west, over the next week / week and a half,   warmth may return to the west around / just after the 25th,  Just in time for Halloween, All Saint's Day, and Dia De Los Muertos ( Day of the Dead ). 

That said,  100s may be done for the year, FINALLY    ...We'll see..

[Silas_Sancona]

One more day at / above 100 after reaching about the same today before we hopefully will say goodbye to them for the year.. 

Good week ahead ....dare is say  kinda cool  -ish  weekend,  next weekend  ..w/ maybe a chance for showers / snow at the higher elevations up in the mountains? ..looking possible ...but we know how the rug can get pulled on these early season systems so,  ..we'll see how things look mid - week. 



Regardless, mid 50s here  ..possible sub 35F lows up in the mountains by next Saturday morning will definitely feel fall-ish.

We'll see where things go beyond that.

[Silas_Sancona]

Heck -of-a' - nice 74F at 9:49PM as the widely advertised cool down arrives..  90s until Friday,  weekend ahead may not crack anything above the lower 80s..

May not add up to much but still a shower or two in the forecast on Friday as the trough bringin a taste of late fall / winter -like Wx slices through the state..




Aside from a few showers locally,  same cut off low could bring the season's first dusting of snow to the higher peaks up on the rim / white mountains and further north.

Flagstaff may see it's first sub 30F lows ( ..Possibly flirting with the low 20s Saturday night ) highs only reaching the mid 40s of this side of the year..

 After maybe breaking out a sweatshirt on Saturday..  90s return by next Tuesday -if the forecast stays as - is.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 59f/15c with a high of 73f/22.7c and a dewpoint of 17.7c/64f. 

Something else I came across today was Iran back in Aug set a new record high dewpoint of 97f/36.1c with a feel like that day of 82.2c/180f and people in Texas and Florida complain about their heat and humidity! 102.4 with 85% humidity.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 minute ago, Foxpalms said:

Min of 59f/15c with a high of 73f/22.7c and a dewpoint of 17.7c/64f. 

Something else I came across today was Iran back in Aug set a new record high dewpoint of 97f/36.1c with a feel like that day of 82.2c/180f and people in Texas and Florida complain about their heat and humidity! 102.4 with 85% humidity.

I saw that posted somewhere but was waiting to hear if it had been confirmed or not.  Thought exactly the same thing however, lol.



The wild thing is that some researchers have suggested ( ..We'll see if it actually occurs.. ) that the immediate region around the N. end of the Gulf of CA could see extreme heat + humidity values like this occasionally -during summers when certain Wx patterns align perfectly-  in the future..

Fortunately, w/ the exceptions of Mexicali, Yuma, and El Centro, no one really lives / really not much out there. 

[SeanK]

59° NE of ATL. 41° last night, expecting 36° tomorrow morning.

[UK_Palms]

Very mild here for mid-October. 22.5C / 73F earlier today here with temperatures up to 23-24C / 75F locally in east London.

 

The car was still reading 22C / 68F at 6:20pm, which was about 20-25 minutes after sunset.

The previous night the minimum was 15-16C / 60F and tonight it is going to be even milder. Some places not dropping below 18C / 64F. Humberside is currently reporting 19.1C / 66F at midnight. Pouring with rain across the country however. Quite the subtropical feel.

 

[Foxpalms]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

Very mild here for mid-October. 22.5C / 73F earlier today here with temperatures up to 23-24C / 75F locally in east London.

 

The car was still reading 22C / 68F at 6:20pm, which was about 20-25 minutes after sunset.

The previous night the minimum was 15-16C / 60F and tonight it is going to be even milder. Some places not dropping below 18C / 64F. Humberside is currently reporting 19.1C / 66F at midnight. Pouring with rain across the country however. Quite the subtropical feel.

 

Still 17c here at almost 2am. The rain is what's causing it to stay here. I suspect if the light rain stops here the temp will rise to 18c by 6am.

[Foxpalms]

3 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

I saw that posted somewhere but was waiting to hear if it had been confirmed or not.  Thought exactly the same thing however, lol.



The wild thing is that some researchers have suggested ( ..We'll see if it actually occurs.. ) that the immediate region around the N. end of the Gulf of CA could see extreme heat + humidity values like this occasionally -during summers when certain Wx patterns align perfectly-  in the future..

Fortunately, w/ the exceptions of Mexicali, Yuma, and El Centro, no one really lives / really not much out there. 

The gulf tof CA though is a thinner smaller body of water so probably less likely, however the dew points will still be on the rise. That airport in Iran is on an island. The southern red sea has high dewpoints as well, whilst further north, Egypt for example is more of a dryish heat. Hurghada Egypt for example has a slightly sticky but not too bad at night and that typical desert dry heat feeling during the day.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Foxpalms said:

The gulf tof CA though is a thinner smaller body of water so probably less likely, however the dew points will still be on the rise. That airport in Iran is on an island. The southern red sea has high dewpoints as well, whilst further north, Egypt for example is more of a dryish heat. Hurghada Egypt for example has a slightly sticky but not too bad at night and that typical desert dry heat feeling during the day.

This is true, and experiencing this on an island would be different.

That said,  dew points in the 80s, alongside air temps in the 110's have already been recorded in Yuma, Mexicali, Calexico, and El Centro.  Skinny as it is, N. Gulf of CA can reach above 90F as well, though maybe for not as long as the Red Sea..

Might not ever reach 180F combined  ...but that kind of murk is still brutal / extremely dangerous.

When shuffling between San Diego and Phoenix or Tucson,  that stretch of the I -8 is passed through as quickly as possible, w/ a full tank,  pref. in the morning / evening.

Couldn't let my dog walk on asphalt / concrete surfaces at a rest stop when i passed thru that area one year  -in mid February.  

[Silas_Sancona]

A cool, partly cloudy, breezy, and slightly hazy Fall-esque morning in the desert as our bowling ball - like cut off low passes through the north central part of the state.  Only 75F at the house, at 11:36AM.  Won't get much warmer than that thru the afternoon.

Looked quite threatening as the front approached around 7AM but, alas, ..not a drop in most areas as it swept on by.

Once the winds calm down / clouds clear out,  anticipate a cool-ish evening ahead ..and thru the weekend. While the current forecast calls for a low of 53F tomorrow night / Sunday Morning, i wouldn't be surprised if we flirt w/ 49-51F ..with a deeper dive into the mid /  upper 40s in neighborhoods on the outskirts of town / that sit surrounded by more open desert.



As we start next week ..back to more heat.  ..and no mo' rain  -for now at least-

[Foxpalms]

88f/31c with 70% humidity. Currently 29c with 80% humidity in Cabo verde. Lots of Phoenix Atlantica planted and coconuts. Feels like 35c at 10pm with 25.2c dewpoint.

 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Well i'll be .. Is that moisture i smell in the air? / Spit falling from the sky??

Apparently the large cutoff upper level Low currently centered over N.E AZ decided to produce a weak lobe of L.P. to it's S.W., directly over the majority of the valley..



 Returns look more impressive on radar than what is actually falling, and it won't amount to much but haven't seen rain here at the house since about the same time in August. Bit of a bittersweet coincidence, but, happy to see any moisture fall from the sky..



Stuck in the mid 50s atm, but should reach the mid / upper 70s once things clear out. Wind should stay much lighter compared to yesterday.  Back to the 80s tomorrow after a refreshingly cool night ahead..

Forecast return of the 90s still on tap after Monday  ...but nights stay in the 60s

Overall,  ..Just about perfect WX  for whatever your plans might be here in the desert, in late October.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 26c/79f with 91% humidity and a high of 89f/31.6c with 70% humidity. UV index was an 11. Strong winds today of over 30mph so whilst it was warm the strong breeze meant you couldn't feel the sun strength on top of the air temp too much. At night the winds are a lot calmer so it feels very sticky. 

Had a big tiger shark go right past me whilst I was swimming in the coral reefs. Sea temp 28.2c at 2m depth.

Here are some palms that seem to have naturally planted themselves including Phoenix Atlantica.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 26c/79f with a max of 32c/90f and 68% humidity. UV index was an 11. Wind speed of around 20mph gusting at 30 during the day time.  Currently 27.5c with 87% humidity.

[Silas_Sancona]

A comfortably cool 62F at 11:17PM w/ a few wisps of Cirrus passing through the state overnight..

90's in full effect tomorrow - the rest of the week into the start of the final few days of October. FTM, Hottest days look to be Friday and Saturday when PHX could add one ( or two ) more 100F readings to this years total..

Even if not, the suggested highs a couple of deg. warmer than here in Chandler could reach or break daily records on both days there.  Regardless,  Nights stay very reasonable, even closer to Downtown / Sky Harbour.

More episodes of high clouds passing through the area at times thru the week = " Sunset ( and Sunrise ) Watches "  issued.. 



As the month ends / Halloween arrives, maybe another modest cool down.  Upper 70s / low 80s on Halloween itself would be far better than 100F.   Was looking even cooler than what is currently suggested in earlier forecasts, so,  ..We'll see how things look as we get closer..

[Foxpalms]

Weather when I landed back in London wasn't too bad yesterday sun and clouds 18c/64.4f.  A lot colder than 90f though! 

The forecast doesn't look too bad, especially when considering here the temps will be warmer than that forecast. These two weeks tend to usually be the wettest part of the year but look pretty dry. Maybe this is the start of the expected drier conditions going into the winter.  

 

[Chester B]

89F/31C and nothing but sunshine. No rain in 3 months but I finally see some in the forecast. 

[Silas_Sancona]

91 At 5:17PM after reaching 97 here / 100 ..another one.. closer to downtown..  95 suggested tomorrow / 97 to possibly?? another 100 closer to downtown PHX tomorrow.. If the high does hot 100 there tomorrow, it will equal the latest calendar date  100F recorded..  We'll see what happens.









After Monday, the next, big cool down will be on the way..  

For now, both Halloween, and Dia de los Muertos / All Saint's Day - related events look perfect as October ends / November begins.  



We'll see if the WX pattern here stays unsettled as Nov. gets underway, or flips back to warm again after this next cool down / possible shower chance or two.

All in all, not looking too bad for the final month of  Meto. " Fall " in the Desert.

[Silas_Sancona]

84F at 10:47PM as we head toward what could be our last 90 / 90+ deg day ...for the rest of the year????? 

Regardless of if it is or not, final days of October / First day of the new month are looking quite a bit cooler than it has been in quite some time..  Even a little chilly on a few nights. 




As the case, most of the time here,  we'll see about -any- of the suggested shower / rain chances in the near-term forecast..  Let alone how long any " cooler in the west atm pattern " sticks around as November gets underway..

Looking at today's OLR forecasts, some signs the " Blue " anomalies ( Blue = cloudier skies / Low Pressure Bias in the West Pac. ..Where many of the storms that can effect the western U.S. are generated. ) will fade out within the next week or two, being replaced by clear skies / drier air / possible building High Pressure Bias ( Red / Orange shades ).

More Orange and Red  = storm generation across the N. Pac. slows or shuts down completely..  ...At least until the next " favorable " phase returns..







Note that both the Operational and Dynamical model thoughts are seeing a similar outcome in today's thinking. That said, those outcomes can shift around a bit day to day even if a trend  -one way or another-  is pretty clear.


Some interesting thoughts to ponder in last nights weekly ( ..or nearly weekly ) YT ENSO discussion from Mark Sponslor..  Do we need to re evaluate how ENSO is ..evaluated..

As usual, skip over the first 30min. of the video if not interested in the surf portion of it..
 

What's this about Hunga Tonga?  ..If it's effects did produce cooling ..rather than the before - suggested ( in other studies ) warming ..despite 23 and this year being abnormally HOT all over the place globally  ..What could this mean once any lingering hangover effects from the eruption have completely faded out .. over say the next year or two??


The study referenced in Mark's discussion:

https://interestingengineering.com/science/hunga-tonga-volcano-cooled-earth


*** As is the case w/ any of em'  ..this study,  ...is just one of several other studies..  It will take more sifting out / examination of any remaining details from this and every other published / to be published study  to figure out exactly what effect(s) the eruption may  -or may not-  have had.   Until there is a conclusive final result,   take this ..and every other study published... w/ a grain or two of salt ***



Interesting thoughts, none the less..


 

[Tyrone]

16C at 6.45 am going for a top of 29C. 

[UK_Palms]

14.8C / 59F at 2am here.

Very mild for the time of year. Temperatures just shy of 20C / 68F in recent days. 18-19C / 65F on Monday.

 

Likely to be pushing 20C / 68F later this week again with the first half of November being way above average...

 

High pressure situated directly over the UK and very dry conditions, which makes a change for October and November. Almost no rainfall whatsoever out to mid-November now.

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 71F at 5:06PM w/ some Cirrus passing through as the sun sets..

Looking great for Halloween and All Souls / Day of The Dead festivities ahead this weekend.. 



Rain for the start of next week? pretty much ax'ed from the forecast ..for now at least...  Looking nice otherwise.

[Foxpalms]

36 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

A pleasant 71F at 5:06PM w/ some Cirrus passing through as the sun sets..

Looking great for Halloween and All Souls / Day of The Dead festivities ahead this weekend.. 



Rain for the start of next week? pretty much ax'ed from the forecast ..for now at least...  Looking nice otherwise.

I'm surprised how quickly the lows cool down in Phoenix. Other than Saturday those lows seem to be colder than here.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Foxpalms said:

I'm surprised how quickly the lows cool down in Phoenix. Other than Saturday those lows seem to be colder than here.

Kick the subtropical high out of the area and a abrupt transition to the " warm days / cool nights " pattern we see this time of year can happen.

Even if  ..or when.. it returns -at any point between now and say late Feb. / early March,  would take a seriously strong and persistent HP ridge overhead to mute the quick overnight cooldowns we experience this time of year, due in big part to the sun angle, despite straddling the N. boundary of the tropics.

Even under that scenario, warmest nights you might experience would be in the 60s, maybe flirting with 70 in the warmest spot(s) in downtown PHX.. 

Fairly mild / extremely dry  Winter of 2017-18 is a good example.. Were seeing upper 80s / scattered neighborhood low 90s, lows in the upper 50s / 60s  in late Jan. / early Feb.  Dec. and early Jan stayed mostly in the upper 60s / 70s,  if i remember right.

[DTS]

Very warm outside.. Tomorrow is supposed to break record temperatures 

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasantly cool 56F at 7:48PM... 

Other than a couple Sun Rise Watches,  week ahead looks like the view below..   Some ups and downs, mild to warm days / cool nights with one maybe touching 39,  Perfect for hardening off the plants  ..just in case..  ...Otherwise, 





..perfect weather for a nice ride as we start down the road to the shortest afternoon of the year.  ( Sun begins setting later each day after Dec. 8th here, 11 days before the start of Astro. Winter )

At the destination, tucked out of view off beyond the hill to the south,  the pre-dawn twilight hour of spring 2025 to come..

[Las Palmas Norte]