What is your current yard temperature?

[Tyrone]

A cold minimum of 5C last night with a forecast max of 20C. A cold night for November. 

[Tyrone]

Last Friday was a humid 30C. Today couldn’t have been more different. Min of 6.5C and a 17C max with not a glimpse of any sun. 

[Silas_Sancona]

55F at 7:24PM

After a cool  -and dry,  here at least-  start to the month,  back to some of that " Perfect AZ Wx in Fall " weather..   Rain " hint " at the end of the 10 day?  doubt it  ..but we'll see.    I say ..Keep it dry..  ....Until late June '25.

Compared to the current 10 day from the NWS,  WX. U. outlook's thoughts are running a little cool on how warm it may get later next week.









While the last couple storms  ..on top of the man - made stuff they've been laying down...  have created enough snow for some of the ski lifts at AZ Snowbowl up in Flagstaff to open today, -the earliest opening ever according to some,  some of it will likely melt over -at least- the next week as the high country, along with the deserts warms and any real snow making storms that might pass through the region aim more at the northern Rockies rather than bringing much additional snow to N. AZ  next week.

Low / mid 80s here mid / late next week = mid 40s to possibly 60 up there  ...as the forecasts are looking currently...




 

[Silas_Sancona]

A no complaints 77F at 3:25PM after briefly hitting 79 about an hour ago..   Low 80s tomorrow, before a brief cool down as a dry storm passes well to our north.

Headed into the middle of the month?  Can't ask for better weather in the desert at this time of year.. Warm enough for a little sweat while on a hike, cool enough at night for a fire on the patio..  ...And if what is seen by most of the longer- term outlooks pans out, after another "cool" down as we approach Thanksgiving,   it may stay  ..perfect..  as we head into the start of Meto. Winter as December kicks off..

We'll see exactly how " cool " it gets here..




Storm that  ..might..  reach far enough south as it swings thru ( -or under- ) AZ will probably not bring any rain chances ..locally at least.  It may bring something to far  E. AZ, NM,  and points east as it quickly heads from S. NM to the upper Midwest early next week.  Other than that blip on the map,  looks dry for now across the area.  Perfectly fine with that. 



Today's musings regarding current weekly 2m Temp / Weekly mean Surf. Temp forecasts from the ECMWF Weeklys    ..Thru Dec. X mas eve eve = 6 weeks..


2m Temp thoughts:





















Weekly Mean Surf. Temp thoughts:


















Current Dec. Temp outlook thoughts,  pulled from today's Blog update by Judah Cohen over on AER:









Shorter and longer- term MJO Phase check: 

Shorter Term:   Decent Inactive phase inbound.. = Blue / Purple shades on the map.




On the longer- term diagram, the purple circled area represents a window of when the effects of the next  suggested  Active Phase might influence the WX in the US.  Note that the " Active Phase " colors are weak,  and penned in on either side by shades of blue ( Inactive Phase ), esp at 120Lon.



Possibility of another decent inactive phase setting up by the end of Jan / start of Feb is a little stronger on the map today too..


***  As mentioned previously elsewhere, thoughts from this map, this far out,  can wax and wane daily / weekly   ..So,  like any other forecast that extends beyond 5 days,   take what you're seeing  -atm-  w/ some salt.



 

[Silas_Sancona]

A cool -ish 57F at 10:38AM under clearing skies.. 10% chance of ..Spit = nada for " rain chances " as the current storm passing through slips east well south of AZ..  Same storm will probably cause all sorts of issues once it reaches the Cen / Southern plains tomorrow / Monday..

Coolest day of the current 10 day outlook is today.. upper 60s to low 70s return tomorrow, w/ upper 70s / low 80s back in action by late week next week as the Thanks giving week travel window opens..




Some model runs hint at another deeper diving trough which dig far enough south as it rolls up on the west coast to bring rain to CA ..maybe offer chances here sometime next week and / or maybe on or just after Thanksgiving,  but,  i wouldn't put much confidence in that yet as other model runs keep things dry here / showery at times in mainly  N. Cal. 

We'll see..


Despite a few cool-ish nights ahead,  the overall " warm / above average lean " signal  suggested by most current, longer- term forecasts as Nov. ends / December  ..and Meteorological Winter..  begins   is still on the maps as we start down the final stretch of 2024..

As always, ...We'll see how this actually plays out.





On a side note, the current 10 day forecasts from a few spots just south of the border..  Temps in the 70s as Thanksgiving arrives here would be nice enough.  80s ..to possibly flirting w/ 90 at times, in a few areas.. / lows in the 60s and 70s  = pretty toasty.

Kind of wild to think both Mazatlan and Puerto Vallarta may see more rain ( if the suggested chances on the maps pan out down there ) than we have thus far this fall / winter season too.



La Paz, BCS:




Cabo:




Mazatlan:





Puerto Vallarta:

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild 72 at 12:05PM  Headed for the upper 70s to low 80s around town later..  

Despite the series of potent storms slamming the Pac. N.W. / N. and parts of Cen CA over the next few days ...staying dry and warm here ..for now at least, as Txgvng. week gets underway..  

As it is looking atm, Staying mild thru -at least- Thanksgiving, then maybe pulling back to the upper 60s.. Suggested chance of rain?  ..We'll see..




Beyond that? perhaps something to watch as November wraps up and December begins..

If summer brings on the " Fantasy Hurricane " model runs,  Winter is the season for those frightful ..and freezing.. fanciful model runs..  today's 12Z is a good example of that.

Despite what stands out in most current model output, today's GFS 12Z decided to go extra bold on unleashing an early season outbreak of arctic air invading ..not just the west, ..but quickly advancing east ...and south... as well..




Looking at other model output < Individual runs that go out to about Dec. 5th currently > ...ECMWF, EC-AIFS, for example,  neither  show the same outcome,  so,  ..We'll see if this turns out to be one of those " one and done "/ whack- a- doo  GFS  model scare - cast, or something that hangs around in future runs, and needs to be eye balled a bit more closely.





Digging around a bit more,  yesterday's update from the CFS v 2 also isn't seeing a major continent - wide outbreak of cold in it's current 10, 14, and 3 / 4 week outlooks..  We'll see if that changes tomorrow ..or later..

10 -14 day outlooks:









3 -4 Week outlooks:





For now, staying mild,  with plenty of potential for good Sunset / Sunrise viewing opportunities ahead here in the desert..

[Silas_Sancona]

Can't ask for a nicer Thursday afternoon in November around town and down in the Old Pueblo ( Tucson )..  






















Stayin nice for now, temps. maybe pulling back a little by Thanksgiving Day / Black Friday..



November update from the CPC ( 90 day outlooks ) out today suggests... What you see is more than likely what lies ahead over the coming months..

After 2 pretty wet winters, local reservoir levels are in decent shape ..so a dry / mild winter, if that is how it goes, shouldn't cause too much trouble..

Obviously, the big reservoirs, Powell and Mead, aren't in as great of shape, though the last 2 winters helped raise the water levels in both a little -for now.


If we don't see anything more than the trace of precip recorded thus far at Sky Harbour by the end of November, we will be tied with both Nov. 2017, and Nov. 2020 for the least amount of rainfall recorded during the Autumn months..















Not posted, but looking at today's thoughts from the ECMWF Weeklys? ( Go out to Jan. 6th ) ..Essentially the same picture being suggested by them also.

Only difference compared to it's thoughts from a few days ago is areas east of the Rockies might see a " here today / gone in a day or two " -type cooldown sometime around / just after the start of Dec..

Forecasts being Forecasts,  Pass the salt please   ...We'll see what happens..

[kinzyjr]

Currently a balmy 53-54F throughout the yard.  Downtown is in the mid-50s.  Take a look at the temperature differences outside of the more urbanized sections outlined in green vs. urban Lakeland (diagonally encompassed in red), KBOW (58F - boxed in red), and the chain-of-lakes in Winter Haven (circled in orange).

[DTS]

Bro what just happened 😭 I know yall would hate this weather

[Silas_Sancona]

A perfect 79F at 4:13PM after reaching 81F about an hour ago.. 

Aside from some neighborhood  mid / upper 80s locally,  area -wide " warm spot for the day " prize goes to .....Tucson.. 

Always interesting  how they can be a tad warmer than Phx at times this time of year..

Nice everywhere across state 48 regardless..






















As it looks atm, Staying nice locally too as we head down the last stretch of Nov, reach Thanksgiving,  and the first day of December ...and start of Meteorological Winter next Sunday.. 

More sun on Thanksgiving = could be upper 70s rather than the currently - suggested 75F.





Looking further out,  ..if it verifies as currently suggested..  10 and 14 day outlooks looking pretty nice as December gets underway.

Spigot may completely shut off across the Pac. N.W. and N. Cal  over the next week or so as well.










Today's 3-4 week outlook thoughts carry the same basic idea right up to the Friday before X-Mass.  ..Which fits in with what the GEFS ( 840 hour run ) is also currently thinking for the same time period as well.  

70s on X-Mass eve / day  ..and/ or to end '24 / Welcome in '25???    We'll see.

[Foxpalms]

62.6f/17c with 75% humidity now at 6.12am. feels like a summers night. This is a very mild night for late November here. 850hpa temps aren't even that impressive it's the extremely strong wind blowing a tropical Atlantic temps from the 20N's. The Osteospermums have opened up more flowers again tonight.

Whilst the Deciduous trees have lost the majority of their leaves many are already starting starting to produce new leaves. Let's see how early the daffodils come up this year.

[Foxpalms]

High of 64.5f/18c with 63% humidity yesterday. Strong winds all day and thick cloud cover.  Clear skies forecasted today but the tropical air mass has now gone with 2c 850hpa temps today. The high is forecasted to be 12-13c. 11c at 6.30am now.