What is your current yard temperature?

[sandgroper]

Currently 29c at 6.00am heading for a warm top.of 41c.

[sandgroper]

10.30am and already 38c, might get a tad warmer than forecast. 

[NC_Palms]

Currently 25ºF here in Greenville, NC. 10:50pm 

Its gonna be COLD this week. Probably the coldest week yet. It should drop to 22ºF tonight and this will be the coldest it got yet. 

[Silas_Sancona]

 A cool-ish 49F at 12: 41AM on X-mass  -and Hanukkah-  Eve, headed for the middle or upper 70s later today before a passing dry cold front pulls temps back to the upper 60s - 71F for the rest of the week.

If they're lucky, a few spots up near the AZ / UT border might see a snow shower or two tomorrow night as tomorrow's storm slides by.





Final days of 2024 / opening days of '25 might see temps try to rebound a touch, but maybe not as much as was suggested by earlier forecasts..

Regardless, weather still lookin good for state 48 as 2024 gets the boot..

[sandgroper]

Currently a very pleasant 22c heading for a comfortable top of 24c, apparently the coldest Christmas Day in 30 years. Merry Christmas one and all, I hope everyone has a great day wherever in the world we all are.

[Mazat]

current temperature in the community garden is 5.3 degrees Celsius at 1:02 p.m., location near Lake Constance,  412m,

lowest value -4.5 degrees Celsius at 8:05 a.m. this morning

[Mazat]

18 minutes ago, Mazat said:

current temperature in the community garden is 5.3 degrees Celsius at 1:02 p.m., location near Lake Constance,  412m,

lowest value -4.5 degrees Celsius at 8:05 a.m. this morning

on the sheltered balcony at the same time

[Arecaceus]

So far winter has been pretty normal and finally a lot drier than the last winters but it has been SO cloudy. I feel like this is one of the most overcast Decembers I can remember. Today was sunny all the way which was an exception. Had a high of 8.8°C and a low of 4.7°C. ☁️

[Silas_Sancona]

A cool n cloudy  ..but dry...  61F as another dry " cold " front passes through town.. 

Final weekend of 2024 looks ...Pretty darn nice..  


Same w/ how things appear to be headed as we reach NYE / NYD    ...Could we notch the first 80F high for the new year,  ...right out of the gate???  ..We'll see..



Tucson as well.. where -at least- 2 days may reach or exceed 80F, if the forecast holds.   

Curious as to when they jumped from " Transitioning to 9b " on some new maps,  to a very mid / upper range zone 11- looking start of the new year..





Final check on what the MJO is thinking as 2024 ends..

  Not a lot of yellow / Orange " Active Phase " lookin' colors on that map between 180 and 120 West, Longer range map below the first, which now goes out to the first few days of Solar Spring in March, esp...  Now suggesting adding a 3rd contour to the High Pressure bias for the Pacific ( Dashed vertical lines ) too.   ='s a classic sign of intensifying La Nina..








If the current statistical and dynamic OLR ( Measures % ' age of cloudy vs dry skies over the Pac. ) thoughts are correct,  any extra energy input for the parade of storms that has been marching into Cen / N. Cal ( ...and further north ) may come to a screeching halt in Jan. as the dry phase on these two maps reaches the far west Pacific.





As has been the case since ........,  today's thoughts from the ECMWF Weeklys are quite  warm,  esp. in the west,  all the way thru Jan / start of Feb.  right now.  Below normal precip bias likely stays put too...

Same with today's thoughts on the 10 and 14 day outlook from the CPC...

Perfectly cool with all that...

[Foxpalms]

On 12/26/2024 at 4:17 PM, Arecaceus said:

So far winter has been pretty normal and finally a lot drier than the last winters but it has been SO cloudy. I feel like this is one of the most overcast Decembers I can remember. Today was sunny all the way which was an exception. Had a high of 8.8°C and a low of 4.7°C. ☁️

This will be the cloudiest year on record for here. Mild so far this winter. Osteospermums still in flower.

[Foxpalms]

As per usual it looks like a mild New years Eve in London. Very mild on the isles of Scilly since the sea surface temps are still 12c. So far it's been a warm zone 10a winter and hasn't gone below 0c/32f.

[MrTropical]

Pleasant low of 61F (16C) tonight. A low pressure system moves across the Southern U.S. tomorrow & brings necessary rainfall to the Coastal Plains. Mild temperatures continue through New Years Eve; then a sharp cooldown is expected, beginning on New Years Day. Additionally, the week of January 6th contains a lot of uncertainty for the Carolinas & the East Coast at large.

[sandgroper]

Currently 24c at 6.00am heading for a warm 39c on this first day of 2025.

[Silas_Sancona]

Perfect afternoon right around 70, heading into a great night for watching fireworks.. if anyone decides to set em' off.. Regardless....

About as nice as it can get as 2025 gets underway...   Far cry from last year and NYE '23 ..at least in the showery and cool department..  Should be nothing to deter some man made sky fire this evening..


We'll see if the first 80F of 25 arrives by the end of the week. 





Can Tucson reach / top 85? ..within the first week   of the new year??   ...We'll see..





As the Sun rises tomorrow, just 11 days left until added day length crosses the +1 minute mark, with just 18 days to go before mornings start getting earlier.

Using meteorological winter,  ..the only measure that matters, here at least..  If we're gonna see anything resembling winter ..it has 30 days to occur..  Once the sun rises on Feb. 1st,  " winter " 24 /25 in the desert is already 3 steps outside the exit door.. 

Even if we can still have a few mornings that can reach freezing, increasing influence of the sun angle is already quick to erase the effect of any late winter chilly mornings, esp. if it stays dry.

By Valentine's Day, .." Winter " is pretty much done..


46 days to go...


As of yesterday, it has been 130 days since -any- measurable rainfall has been recorded in PHX ( or here at the house ).  ..Could we reach ..let alone surpass.. the record,  set wayy back in 1971  ( ...160 days... ) by the end of Jan???

We'll see..

[Foxpalms]

55f/12.7c at 2am in London Jan 1st 2025. Another mild New years eve.

[Palm Sundae]

Watered some cactus today.

With no rainfall of any significance since August, some of the plants that I never have to water in the Winter looked like they could use a bit of help. Still waiting for the first freeze.

Air quality has been pretty bad too. Wonderful temps though!

[Foxpalms]

Supposedly it started snowing in parts of London a very small amount less than a half a cm before it turned to rain as the warmer wetter Atlantic weather started pushing away the cold front. However there's just rain here. Lowest temp tonight was 34f/1c. Temps currently rising.

[Silas_Sancona]

A cool-ish  61F at 12:03PM as clouds finally clear and da' sun returns..

Minor shift in the Wx pattern for the week ahead  looks to bring some .......Wait for it......  closer  to...  Typical.....  -Gasp!!-  winter  weather  to AZ over the next few days.

Essentially, a brief wobbling of the overall hemispheric Wx pattern will allow for a stretch of inside slider type systems to dig far enough south ( ..or southwest ) thru the Great Basin to bring the possibility of  ..Gasp!  ...sprinkles... back into the forecast either tomorrow night, ..and /or again later,  ..depending on how long this taste of actual winter hangs around down here..

Might also bring a few inches of white death to the high country / ..maybe briefly terrorizing Tucson as well.. but it won't last.. 

As it looks right now, all in all, a few inches for the mountains / ..maybe 1/2" on the pavement for a couple hours one morning for Tucson ain't anything meaningful.  Forest fire up near Payson that had started a few weeks ago is still burning.. 


Taste o' winter  may also bring forth the possibility for the chilliest morning lows for the entire winter, though honestly,  we've already seen similar lows so no, if prone to doing so, ...don't start freaking out.   This is  ....Typical.....



....Don't rule out seeing the odd 27-29F reading(s) in the typically chilly outlaying cold pocket 'burbs ..maybe sprinkled around some neighborhoods a little closer to town too ..but nothing scary..

Same thoughts for Tucson ..for now at least...  We'll see how things evolve over the next 26-36 hours.. Let alone if any  White Death threatens them, lol 😂




Of bigger concern for now is ..what could end up being... a pretty significant Santa Anna event for S.Cal. 

W/ absolutely no rain since ......  any fires that might ignite could get ugly pretty quickly, as they have done thus far this winter there..





Daniel Swain will be live in a few hours ( 3PM,  Pacific Time ) to add thoughts to this part of the evolving pattern there.. and speak about ..weirdness... Yeahh, i've been hearing about it too..  oof.  ..Some folks desperately need to get a life, ...let alone help.
🤦‍♂️




More later ..elsewhere.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

Stuck at 62F under some clouds at 11:49AM..

We'll see if we reach the suggested high of 69 later  ...let alone if we'll actually get a ....sprinkle later / overnight ( Highly doubt it )

Some minor adjustments to the forecast i'll mention later but, -for the moment, much more significant thing to be watched closely is the unfolding windstorm getting going over S. Cal.. 

While some have tried to down play it, as it's looking atm, this could rival or surpass the 2011 Santa Ana - related event experienced there which resulted in several million dollars worth of damage.  kicker this time around may be just how dry it is compared to that year ...Let alone how much new development has taken place since then.

Already hearing reports of preemptive power shut offs, and ..you guessed it, fire starts..

As his latest thread post suggests, Daniel Swain will likely have live Y.T sessions thru the day into tomorrow..



For everyone out there, even if your specific neighborhood isn't really effected ( See Dan's posts / video from yesterday ), keep a close eye on this..

More later...

[Silas_Sancona]

Awakening to a mild 58F w/ some clouds -and dust- hanging around, with winds out of the east / N. East... Despite sometimes threatening looking skies thru the rest of yesterday and overnight  -not  -a  -drop. Not seeing that anything was recorded in PHX either ....so the dry streak enters day 138 ..or 9.

Slimmest chance of a shower still hanging around in the forecast thru the afternoon as the cutoff low, now centered somewhere between San Felipe and Bahia de Los Angeles, BCN slips further south and east.. If we're lucky? ..maybe a drop or two falls ..whooo hoo, lol..


Of  -far more important-  concern is the wind /fire situation in S.Cal as the sun rises..  

Pre- dawn capture from the COD Satellite page shows a very unusual -and very dangerous situation.  Black dots on the map are current heat sensed signatures of the two bigger fires ..Eaton, near Pasadena / Palisades, near Pac. Palisades, Topanga, and Santa Monica..  Hard to see w/ mountain wave induced cloud cover obscuring it at times but the Hurst fire, up near Sylmar, also continues burning atm..




Current evac. areas for the Palisades, Hurst, and Eaton fires via Watch Duty    

..Never heard of it?, hands down, the best app / website  for tracking fires -in CA.- or pretty much anywhere..








Note the new blaze that broke out within the last couple hours ( Woodly Fire ) noted on the map laying out the evac. zones for the Eaton Fire. per a Watch duty reporter update just a few minutes ago, that fire has been contained after jumping Burbank Blvd..




As the title says, Daniel Swain should be back on air shortly ( 8AM PT ) for a morning update on the entire situation / thoughts on today's forecast out there. 



....More later...

[Silas_Sancona]

Quick evening update on the Fires...

While winds are  starting to back off, fires continue..  There was a new start ( Lidea Fire ) N.E. of Sylmar, but it appears crews were able to get a handle on it..

Current map from Watch Duty: On tonight's IR Sat map ( Not added here ) heat signatures from the bigger fires is still present, but much less in intensity -for the moment at least- this evening compared to last night / this morning..




A snippet of what is being seen post fire, both from Pac. Palasides, and from Altadena .where part of Downtown has been destroyed..

Footage credit:  Christophurious,  and Michael Steinberg ( @norcalchaseing ) ..who has been tirelessly bouncing between fires for the last two days.. Hats off to this guy for providing accurate and non -stop, eye witness coverage,  ....well ahead of many other news reporters on the ground atm.. 








Back on this side of the hill(s)  53F after as the last ripples of wave clouds clear out  ..and brisky breezes thru the day finally back off..

[Silas_Sancona]

Without the breeziness of yesterday, 60F at 2:23PM on your 2nd Thursday of 2025 doesn't feel so bad.. While the 70s won't be back until -at least- next Tuesday, today should be the coolest of the next 10 days.. Actually impressed to see a couple below avrg. days sandwiched between a very warm winter..

With the cooler days the rest of the week / into the weekend come the inevitable chilly nights..  While some elsewhere may yowl un-endingly about a few cool mornings this time of year,  ..it's January folks..  " Chilly " happens sometimes, whether we like it  ..or not....

Overall, forecast doesn't look bad at all.. sure we'll see some lower 30F mornings over the next few days ..W/ the normally cool spots dipping a tad lower potentially,  VERY dry around here..  Don't anticipate any issues,  thought the Adeniums might spend the weekend inside.. ...Or maybe i'll just leave em' be..  Not even bringing in the Royal P. seedlings, Gasp!

As long as the current forecast holds,  it's back to the " usual morning low range so far this winter "  of 38-mid 40s by this time next week.




Tucson looks a little cooler ..with areas near the river and out by Agua Caliente, in the Tanque Verde area of the valley, potentially bottoming out in the 25 -29 range on the coldest mornings ahead.. Not bad ( ..and technically still within 9B territiory, ..Gasp, ..Again!, lol )




They also will emerge from the chill by the middle of next week..


Looking at the current point n' click from the NWS Tucson office, even the far removed from -any- urban influenced towns closer to the border looks reasonably warm  ..for being where they are located..

At the worst, Empire Ranch, where the main entrance to Las Cienegas is located,  Sonoita proper,  and Patagonia bottom out in the low 20s  ..with some high teens likely for the cooler spots in /around  Sonoita. 

Even high teens would be a touch on the warmer side ( ...Considering they are currently listed as Zone 8A and close to 5K ft in elevation )  If that is the only time they see any sub 20s this winter, that's pretty good.

...Will all be back to around ..or just above.. 30 by this time next week ..Unless something changes between now and then..



While some forecasts want to paint minimal, broad-brushed rain chances across parts of AZ over the next 10 days or so ..i highly doubt it happens.. But,  ya never know.. Dry streak continues  -unabated- for now..

Considering we had a couple fires break out east of the valley w/ this last dry and breezy system / Horton Fire up near Payson ..up on the Rim, continues to burn, despite the cooler weather, ..Spring could look ..interesting... this year ..if... it stays as dry as it may..



Overall, enjoy this tiny taste of winter in the desert cuz' a return to the warmth we've seen thus far this winter seems likely as the end of the month nears.  ..As it is looking currently at least..

By that time, we'll be adding a minute to each day ( Arrives by the 12th ) ..and overall days will be getting longer ( Last 7:30AM+ sunrise occurs on the 18th ) 


On a less than thrilled note, it's also looking like another Santa Ana -type wind event may be on the way for S Cal.. Unfortunately..  We'll see.




Beyond that, we have officially crossed into La Nina territory..  Deny it or not, Can't argue with the pros on the subject.   https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2025-update-la-nina-here

[Foxpalms]

Min of 32.1f/0c on the coldest weather station on the garden (middle of the lawn) which lasted about 5 mins before the temp rose.  No visible frost. 83% humidity. 

Other than the 21st the two week forecast is sunshine every single day with the only rain on the 21st. On Tuesday temps are forecasted to return back to average of around 9-10c.

cold 850hpa temps over here at the moment whilst Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly seem to be avoiding most of this cold airmass. The isles of Scilly have been very mild so far this winter this warm during a cold period at the coldest time of the year!

The sun isn't strong enough yet in London for it to make much of a difference so sea temps even during the day make more of a difference however by mid-late February thats when the highs here tend to overtake Cornwall and the Scilly isles so long as the 850hpa temps are similar.

[Mazat]

we had a low temperature of -0.4 °C / 31.28 °F at 7:54 a.m. in the community garden this morning and currently 6.1 °C / 42.98 °F with sunshine.
we hope it doesn't get as low on sunday and monday as the weather forecast predicts:

[Silas_Sancona]

A crispy clear 47F at 9:04Am ..headed for the low 60s later..

As expected, A slight downward shift in the forecast' lows for the next couple nights ..locally at least..  Nuthin scary but, watches for potential freeze issues have been expanded to include most of the valley / areas to the west and southwest for Sunday morning currently.  Won't be surprised if it gets extended to overnight Sunday / Monday morning..



Current point n' click thoughts:



Current thoughts from W.U. :



As mentioned above, nippy for a couple night, but nothing frightening..   Upward as next week moves forward.. before perhaps one last threat next weekend / start of the following week..   We'll see..




In contrast to the slight shift downwards up here, weekend forecast remains basically unchanged further south, even closer to the border..  I'd take this forecast in any zone 8A area..




No advisories hoisted currently but some potential for frost present in the early -week forecast for typically chilly in January spots in the sheltered / interior parts of the Bay Area / Cen. Valley as well.. 

Like yesterday, very warm -for January-  upper 60s -lower / mid 70s forecast today out there, around the Bay Area at least..


In other news, yes, there was a minor 3.7 thud just off S.F..   As great as the meme is, it really should read: Hank = Non native <  most likely > Californians getting dramatic about a bump in the night.  Bobby = Native Californian's thoughts about said rumble in the night.. 





Someone else checked in yesterday as well, with some wise advise for the B.S.'ers. 

[Silas_Sancona]

After slipping to 30F / day #2 hanging between 34-31 around the greater valley ( cooler in the typically cooler spots ) ..for less than an hour ..W/ the exception of the expected 5' x 5' frost pocket out back,  absolutely no frost on the ground, or on neighborhood rooftops.. No icy crust on a couple containers containing water out there either..  

Back to 50F atm.. Headed for the low 60s later.  Chill abates as the coming week unfolds, before -maybe- returning for one last visit  late next weekend / start of late January, right as the sun starts rising earlier each day forward ..and the first big " Hint o' Spring " worth attending  regional event gets underway  ..AKA: the Tucson Gem and Mineral Show / Festival,  which will start next Saturday, on the 18th, ...and extend out into mid Feb.  Has always been the " Winter will end in 1 mile "  highway sign along the road to warmer weather arriving each year..  " Warmer weather " doesn't = 90s return, right away, though..




Staying within it's overall suggested theme so far this month,  according to thoughts from the 00z GEFS 840hr  last night,  overall chilly break in an otherwise mild winter should be a memory by the end of the month..

MJO check in: .. Yep,  right in the middle of our  " opportunity for winter   Strong pulse of the Inactive MJO phase nipping at it's heels = weather turning mild ahead seems likely.






Current Polar Vortex:    Strong like Bull, and likely stayin' resilient ....







A couple side notes for the day:

For anyone interested / those who want to learn some things  ..from an expert,  ..rather than from arm chair theories spread on Face-plant,  tik tak and that other irrelevant social media platform...   Daniel Swain will be speaking in an interview done by CNN sometime today / this evening. 



He and his team of researchers also recently completed a -very relevant-  paper on Hydroclimate Whiplash that is worth diving into.. ..If you want to learn things..







Also: ....To all of our brave firefighters, first responders, and aid workers in ..or en-route to... CA from the states,  Canada ...and Mexico...  A Grand   thank You  for your tireless work, determination, and steady hands in the face of adversity.. 



 

[flplantguy]

Another day of low 50s all day long today, this portion of the Florida west coast gets this way when the water temps are cold and winds are onshore. It has been a chilly winter, with one break of wamer days since thanksgiving (before New Years) and numerous days not getting out of the 50s. Some daytime highs set at midnight make that day seem warmer than it was too.  Looking forward to a pattern change by Feb, and glad to (so far) dodge a freeze.  Two days of near average temps this month and a few palms notice it, the Cristmas palm most of all with a lot of cold spotting.  The Bentinkia is also not happy but notnsure why; chill could be it since daytime highs have been lackluster even with sun.

[Silas_Sancona]

 43F and headed for another brush with 32 come sunup..  As thought, frost / brief freeze potential good enough tonight that frost and freeze products are up for interior areas of the East and South Bay < frost > /  San Joaquin Valley < freeze > as well.. Nothing atypical for mid- Jan. though maybe a slight shock considering it was just in the 70s in spots up there a few days ago.. 

They'll also warm up thru the week, only to see the next frost / freeze threat return by the start of next week - briefly- .. 840hr GEFS still seeing an end to the chill soon..



At the same time, fingers crossed it doesn't try to rival last weeks' event,  next round of Santa Ana conditions are already prompting PDS advisories down south from Tuesday thru Wednesday..  Something to be watched closely again obviously.





As for any rain chances as we end January / look into Feb.?  ..Don't get any hopes up..  N. Cal / Pac. N.W. ..really all of the west... looking drier thru -at least- the end of the month as well.

New Wx West blog post from Daniel Swain: