What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

A cool-ish 58F under mostly clear skies, after awakening to the smell of moisture in the air and a couple moist spots on the sidewalk / driveway..  Yes, we finally saw a quick sprinkle sometime overnight..  Not even enough  for any of the local gauges to pick up though.. ...So the streak continues.....

Will we ..or won't we break it before tomorrow afternoon????  Still not thinking we will but,  we'll see..


For today, best opportunities for any rain / snow showers are confined to the mountains / East & S.E. AZ. = Thicker green line on the map where the best available moisture / dynamics are located ( Blue Arrow )



Thinner green line = where widely isolated showers could pop trough the afternoon today..

Center of the UPLL, now located somewhere near Flagstaff currently,  is now expected to progress to the east a bit faster than forecast earlier, which means the " better " rain chances suggested for tomorrow here around  PHX earlier, may get swept east by the time an afternoon update for tomorrows forecast is issued..

Most likely track as it heads east is through N. New Mexico, though  some sort of low center could get kicked up over S.E. N.M. as the overall circulation heads into the high Plains.

That occurs, not only does that mean the dry streak likely won't be broken,  it also would lift tomorrow's currently forecast high  by -at least- a couple degs.  since cloud cover would be less / area of AZ would sit on the drier back side of the low itself.

After that?   = big warm up as Feb begins. 



If anything, highs for the peak of this warm up have notched up a couple degs, putting the possibility of seeing the first " Neighborhood 90's " of 2025 in play on at least next Tuesday..

Regardless of how warm it ends up,  weather ahead is looking perfect for getting outdoors. 

[sandgroper]

Currently 41c at 1.00pm.

[Palm Sundae]

Some stuff fell out of the sky today.

I forget what you call it.

It made the ground look like I had an irrigation leak.

Sort of. For a little while.

[Silas_Sancona]

 Aahhh!!  = That sound made when it is warm out again, after a stretch of cooler weather...  67F at 3:32PM

Yea the 0.01" of rain Sky Harbour recorded the other day broke the dry streak ..1 day shy of tying the record, but ..Nothing special about that. Any moisture provided by  that 0.01 - 0.05" laid down across most of the East Valley as this last storm passed on through =  will be gone by Sunday...

While Nor Cal may get drenched as February begins,  ..dry and looking quite nice wayy down here.. 

We'll see how many 80s are racked up as the first 10 -12 days of the month unfold, let alone how many??  " Neighborhood 90s "  turn up on both Monday and Tuesday. here and down in Tucson.

Stretch of 48 - low 50F mornings ahead will be nice too..







Interesting that Hermosillo looks  -quite toasty- over the coming week, compared to Puerto Vallarta's current 10 day..







Regardless, Spring heat slowly starting to build down south = arrival of real spring heat locally won't be far away..


After the Rat does / doesn't see it's darker half,  Sun will set after 6PM locally..  26 days before the Sun rises before 7AM. 


A few minor curves in the road ahead later perhaps,  but, for now,   Nuthin' but   going forward..
 

[Silas_Sancona]

Wavering between 79 and 81F at 3:08PM on the first Sunday in February...  W/ plenty of 80s on the board around town.. 





Same idea down south in Wildcat country..







Flirting with " slightly toasty " tomorrow and Tuesday across the board. Staying perfect thru the week ahead as well. Maybe pulling back to the lower 70s later. Watchin for those first neighborhood 90s of the year and perhaps?? an official 90F reading at the Airport in Tucson ( 86F = the currently suggested high on Tuesday there )




6 more weeks of " Winter "??  ...We'll see about that here.  Daytime highs of 70+ over the next 5-7+ days = might be just enough to convince the Sweet Acacia to awaken from their cool season nap.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

83F at the moment, 85F before another batch of thicker Cirrus moved by about 15 mins ago..

As we approach 3PM ..Pretty toasty Monday afternoon across the board.  ..Just a couple Neighborhood 90s up here so far,













Many more around Tucson, esp. in the neighborhoods just below the west / south facing side of the Catalinas.









Thinking the WX station at the Airport isn't reading correctly..




Upper 70s / 80s in the rural areas like Sonoita, Patagonia, and Green Valley = ..Pretty hot for the start of Feb  ..Are highs you'd anticipate seeing closer to the start of April down there.




Some real heat atm?  Hermosillo ..




2-4deg warmer everywhere tomorrow, so we'll see how many more 90s show up on the board.

[Silas_Sancona]

70F at 7:23PM after another day reaching 86F.

3rd day in a row of tying / exceeding the daily record at Sky Harbour  ( 86F old record 85F, set in 1925 and 1963.  Yesterday = 86F ...also breaking the record from 1925 )      Avrg high for the start of Feb?  ..69F...

More Neighborhood 90s on the board today, though not as many as i'd expected.. Close enough in many areas though.

Staying between 78-82 thru at least Saturday, before temps pull back  ..to the lower 70s as we head deeper into the month... 

[Than]

One of the coldest nights yesterday here. I recorded 0C / 32F at ground level in my garden. Skies are clear and day temperature reached 14C / 57F. Tonight is expected to be even colder; let's see. No wind, this is radiational cold.

[Foxpalms]

57 minutes ago, Than said:

One of the coldest nights yesterday here. I recorded 0C / 32F at ground level in my garden. Skies are clear and day temperature reached 14C / 57F. Tonight is expected to be even colder; let's see. No wind, this is radiational cold.

A lot of Europe seems below average at the moment. The highs here are 4-5c below average. No temps close to 0c but wet cloudy cold days.  Cold continental cold for a prolonged period coming from the east bringing far below average 850hpa temps. Then cloudy wet weather off the Atlantic. One of the worst February forecasts I have ever seen.  The 850hpa temps to the south are actually even colder over France. Next week when the easterly SSW winds come in with that no wind + radiational cold will be present. 

[Than]

31 minutes ago, Foxpalms said:

A lot of Europe seems below average at the moment. The highs here are 4-5c below average. No temps close to 0c but wet cloudy cold days.  Cold continental cold for a prolonged period coming from the east bringing far below average 850hpa temps. Then cloudy wet weather off the Atlantic. One of the worst February forecasts I have ever seen.  The 850hpa temps to the south are actually even colder over France. Next week when the easterly SSW winds come in with that no wind + radiational cold will be present. 

True; a very persistent cold front. It will last 10 days here. 

The worst is the duration of the cold last night too. It was 0C for 9 hours! From 10pm to 7.00am... 

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant  57F at 11:28PM under passing high clouds which should break up enough tomorrow to allow tomorrow's high to reach 80F.

While plenty warm, thicker cloud cover passing through today kept temps in the upper 70s most of the day.


Week ahead looks a little more interesting than has been the case thus far this " winter "

After a warm start, a couple storms expected to pass through the region could offer up not only a decent shot at actual rain ( Actual rain = anything that measures above 0.09" ) We'll see though since what looks good now, could fizzle out as it reaches AZ later.

Because the storm forecast to pass thru overnight Thursday / Friday will be fairly warm, snowfall for the mountains may be confined to the highest spots up there. 

Storm dynamics may offer up a chance of uncommon pre - spring thunderstorms   -if there is enough low level moisture present as daytime heating peaks as the cold front is passing thru the low desert..

Unfortunately, rainfall expected w/ the bigger storm could be a bigger deal across S.Cal where 1+" of rain is looking possible across a wide area, inc. over the burn scars.  Definitely something to be watched carefully as the week unfolds..



Regardless, looking like a decent chance at getting -something-  even if the moisture won't hang around in the soil for long once the storm heads east. 

..Whether or not it is the last storm to offer up reasonable shower chances for this winter here?  we'll see.

After that,  the beginning of a big warm up, that might carry us thru the end of the month,  arriving by next Sunday???  ..We'll see.

Regardless, a little moisture Friday,  followed by temps back into -at least- the mid / upper 70s by next Monday / Tuesday? = should be the " Head to the stage " cue for the opening round of Spring blooming trees  ..TX. Mtn. Laurel and Sweet Acacia.

Since i have gravel being delivered to two places next Friday  ..when it's supposed to rain -if it does -  Timing could be better but, it is ..what it is..  At least i won't have to wet down both areas where the gravel is going before it gets dumped..  Hopefully, lol. 

[Mazat]

On 2/9/2025 at 4:05 PM, Than said:

One of the coldest nights yesterday here. I recorded 0C / 32F at ground level in my garden. Skies are clear and day temperature reached 14C / 57F. Tonight is expected to be even colder; let's see. No wind, this is radiational cold.

that surprises me that it can get so cold where you live.

yes, blue skies and then a crystal clear windless night, then it gets cold here too, a lot colder of course.
we also prefer it here when it stays cloudy or has high fog or mist, then it stays within the temperature range at night

[Mazat]

On 2/9/2025 at 5:44 PM, Than said:

True; a very persistent cold front. It will last 10 days here. 

The worst is the duration of the cold last night too. It was 0C for 9 hours! From 10pm to 7.00am... 

wow, that's a long time for your region.

[Than]

8 hours ago, Mazat said:

that surprises me that it can get so cold where you live.

yes, blue skies and then a crystal clear windless night, then it gets cold here too, a lot colder of course.
we also prefer it here when it stays cloudy or has high fog or mist, then it stays within the temperature range at night

It's the area's microclimate. Also the sea's warming effect doesn't reach more than a mile inland and I am about 8km / 5mi inland. The nearby town that's on the coast never goes below 5C. There is a big Kigelia tree there that still have all leaves without any signs of damage. 

Then, during the day, temperatures here always go above 10C and usually 14C. 

[Mazat]

9 hours ago, Than said:

It's the area's microclimate. Also the sea's warming effect doesn't reach more than a mile inland and I am about 8km / 5mi inland. The nearby town that's on the coast never goes below 5C. There is a big Kigelia tree there that still have all leaves without any signs of damage. 

Then, during the day, temperatures here always go above 10C and usually 14C. 

Okay, in this case the distance is too great to have the warming effect of the sea. 

This is a very good indicator of the climate of this kigelia tree.

Is it kigelia africana with these long fruits? Extremely impressive plant.

I've just checked how long the distance is from me to Lake Constance, about 2 km is the shortest way.

I think the influence is there, but not full then it would be usda 8b not 8a, but I have exotic plants that don't grow well or at all with my colleagues in the immediate vicinity, unfortunately attempts have failed, I would have been very pleased if they could...

 

 

[Foxpalms]

On 2/9/2025 at 4:44 PM, Than said:

True; a very persistent cold front. It will last 10 days here. 

The worst is the duration of the cold last night too. It was 0C for 9 hours! From 10pm to 7.00am... 

At least by Monday here we will have southerly winds plus clear skies. With air masses coming up from Spain.  The cold in eastern Europe seems to save gone down as far south as into Egypt.

[Than]

On 2/11/2025 at 4:00 PM, Mazat said:

Okay, in this case the distance is too great to have the warming effect of the sea. 

This is a very good indicator of the climate of this kigelia tree.

Is it kigelia africana with these long fruits? Extremely impressive plant.

I've just checked how long the distance is from me to Lake Constance, about 2 km is the shortest way.

I think the influence is there, but not full then it would be usda 8b not 8a, but I have exotic plants that don't grow well or at all with my colleagues in the immediate vicinity, unfortunately attempts have failed, I would have been very pleased if they could...

 

 

Yes, it's Kigelia africana. It is quite big but it hasn't fruited yet. Not sure it will; I don't know much about this tree tbh. The same tree has both male and female flowers and it is normally pollinated by bats. 

Your microclimate is influenced by many more things than the lake, perhaps some creek nearby, the morphology, wind currents etc. I'd say that 2km is the maximum distance that sea warming effect can reach.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A cool ..but not too bad 53F at 8:36PM w/ some passing clouds under a full moon..

Despite the fact that all of S. Cal / CA in general will get a decent soaking over the next 24 -36 or so hours,  earlier " decent " rain chances for this side of the hill have faded to ..just about nothing..  as we reach the end of the week..  Considering i'll be greeting a 30 ton gravel delivery Friday morning, perfectly fine w/ that, though i was looking forward to -at least- that savory morsel of thunderstorm opportunity that had been dangled in the earlier forecasts..  No worries,  there's a monsoon season off on the horizon to get my fix  ..Hopefully, lol.. 

Won't be surprised if we see a couple showers ..or none.. Definitely don't anticipate anything more than maybe 0.05 - 0.10" at the house..

If anywhere locally gets in on some " good " rainfall w/ this storm, it will be up in the foothills, esp. north and east of the valley.  Even so, don't expect  a downpour.

Snow, decent snow totals? = highest peaks on the Rim / Kiabab Plateau / extreme N.E. AZ only..  Flagstaff is only anticipating 3-7" -at the most atm..  Whatever falls will be gone once highs are back in the 50s up there by the middle / end of next week..





Beyond Friday's passing storm,  back to that wonderful pre- spring warmth here in the desert ..just as another much admired season,  Spring Training Season kicks off..

How warm could it end up as we round mid - month and head down the final stretch of February ...and Meteorological Winter??   ..We'll see..  Looking at the longer range models atm is sort of a gamble..  Some suggest returning to / hanging in the upper 70s / low 80s. Others dangle mid / upper 80s in the forecast at times.. 

Regardless, Unless there is a major change, ..looking pretty nice as Winter bows out and Spring 2025 steps onto the stage..



*** Touching on S. Cal for a sec.. While the 1-3+" of rain suggested for all of S. Cal below the mountains over the next 2 days will be nice,  burn scar areas will need to be watched very closely..  Things could get a bit dicey for a time as the strongest part of the storm sweeps past those areas.. 

After that storm heads east, things look like they should dry out and warm up, though maybe not as much as we might. 

Nor. Cal may also see a drying / warm -lean moderation in temps trend as we head toward the start of March as well.. 

 

[MrTropical]

At 1:00 AM EST, the temperature was 53°F (9°C) in Emerald Isle, North Carolina, U.S. Cloudy skies & dense fog prevail tonight. The air temperature has warmed in the last hour or two as a warm front slowly creeps north from the Gulf of Mexico. The high today is expected to be near 70°F (~21°C) and is welcomed after several clammy days in the upper 40s and low 50s (~10°C). The next 7 days will be quite the rollercoaster ride as we near springtime in the Southeast, with daily high temperature swings from the low 50s (~10°C) to near 70°F (~21°C).

Expected high temperatures for today across North Carolina...



Expected low temperatures for Thursday night into Friday morning...




Most areas of North Carolina have seen appreciable rainfall over the past few days. The western portion of the state continues to see moderate rains as the eastern Piedmont & Coastal Plains remain relatively dry. Pockets of freezing rain have persisted in the northwestern areas of the state where cold air is lingering, primarily along the Blue Ridge Parkway. Some locations will see total ice accumulations greater than one-half inch.

Central & Eastern North Carolina will continue to receive drought relief as multiple systems pass through over the next week.

Estimated precipitation totals for the next 7 days:



It is much too early for specifics, but some models suggest the potential for a winter storm that could impact much of the state late next week.

The models are depicting multiple scenarios with varying impacts, as shown below...

ECMWF model run as of February 12 at 12z:



GFS model run as of February 13 at 00z:





2-13-2025

[Mazat]

19 hours ago, Than said:

Yes, it's Kigelia africana. It is quite big but it hasn't fruited yet. Not sure it will; I don't know much about this tree tbh. The same tree has both male and female flowers and it is normally pollinated by bats. 

Your microclimate is influenced by many more things than the lake, perhaps some creek nearby, the morphology, wind currents etc. I'd say that 2km is the maximum distance that sea warming effect can reach.. 

 

i only saw this tree on a phot when a friend showed me years ago. He was in southafrica and india also. i don`t forget it the tree is wonderful.

in any case. i just noticed something because we are talking about it. the westerly winds are very cold here, especially in the cold season. and besides, sabine, my wife, discovered this morning, when she was downstairs in the community garden, that the parking lot has been occupied for some time by a trailer pointing westward. 

This seems to be an advantage that has only been there for about two months, and it helps to mitigate the cold wind. On the same side, she discovered that the Chamaerops humilis planted in front of the trailer has no leaf damage.
In other years this is exactly the case on the west side. exciting.

[Foxpalms]

Much better weather here next week. The next two weeks will be fairly dry as well with only one day with rain forecasted. Metoffice tends to understate temps until a closer date. 13.8m of rain at Heathrow so far this month which is slightly higher than here with only 0.9mm forecasted for the next two weeks.  Decent forecast that would help to makeup for the awfully cool start to the month, hopefully this doesn't change too much.

[Silas_Sancona]

69F at 5:22 on your Friday ..Feb. 14th.....

Some random drops between 6 and 9AM  while slinging rocks but ..that's about all the " rain " that fell at the house.. Cleared out enough that temps rebounded to the low 70s by noon...

Other than a quick passing storm that might bring a shower / light snow shower up on  ...and north... of the Rim ( Nothing but clouds  currently forecast down here ) to start next week,  

  Dry ..and heating up -state wide-  as next week progresses..




Big question as we head down the final leg of the month will be    ..Just how  warm could things get here??

** Low to lower mid- 80s? ..

** ....or a 3-5 day stretch of mid / upper 80s,  w/ a the tantalizing hint of reaching / exceeding 90 for the first time ..officially.. in 2025??  ...tucked within the  forecasts from some models...

Guess we'll just have to wait n' see...

Regardless,  No complaints / life is great  ...in state 48

[Silas_Sancona]

A nice 57F at 9:08AM under a broken mosaic of  Cirrus passing through.. Headed for the upper 70s / likely scattered neighborhood 80s later..

Week ahead? ..staying in the upper 70s / low 80s..  Then -if the current forecast suggestions hold, throwing a little extra heat into the forecast by the start of next week / final few days of Feb.  / ....Final days of Meteo. Winter..




Looking a little further out, into the first few days of March?


..Your forecast outcome choices include:

Current 00Z ECMWF: Ridge over the west breaks down / gets nudged south of AZ again while some storms pass through the Great Basin ..or whatever..



Current 00Z EPS : ..a more zonal flow, w/  things down here staying warm...



..Or

Current 06Z EC - AIFS:   BIG 588mb ridge dropping anchor over the west = Crankin' up the heat  ..just a bit more than is forecast for the start of next week.. 




Close to 100F in places like El Centro / other spots near the Salton Sea, Lower to mid 90s here,  ...Possible 90s on the west side of the hill  in / around L.A.& S. Cal / mid to upper 70s and / or low 80s further north???



AIFS is always a bit more enthusiastic in it's forecasting, esp beyond 5-7 days  ...So  we'll see if this outcome actually occurs..

  It also sometimes under- estimates the daytime high by a couple degs.  ..so, perhaps that currently suggested 93 ends up closer to the upper 90s?? 

W/ the suggested 588mb ridge setting up overhead at that time, i wouldn't be shocked to see a hotter outcome -if this scenario holds ..or strengthens as we get closer to the final 2-3 days of Feb...

Several days in the 80s, + A couple back to back days reaching / exceeding 90F < Possibly >  = Will definitely awaken everything from their winter naps.

[Silas_Sancona]

76F at 4PM w/ scattered neighborhood 80s under clear skies..



Warmer tomorrow, First 90s on the board by the start of next week  ..if the forecast holds..  Possibly some 60 / 60+ morning lows as well..  

See ya later, " winter! " 🤣