What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

After a nice lead up to it,  ..Time for a little ride as a new season ..and March... kicks off...



Yea, they're out there ..but we'll see about any " hinted at by various model run " rain chances ..locally at least... while this cool-ish / unsettled first half of March Wx pattern setting up across the west sets in..  More likely? ..a couple more sub 45F mornings ..and maybe one day the barely reaches 60F..

CA? While it looked like it's influence might throw in the towel as the month started, with a bit of a burst in MJO activity ( Red colors right over 120W ) ...You'll be adding -at least-  a little more rain to the bucket over the next 8-14 days.  We'll see if that also brings us a few spring showers..

Next " Inactive Phase " looks pretty impressive, and stretches all the way to under CA / to Ecuador  which typically = N. Pacific may start to shut down, possibly for the season..




More hints that the unsettled start to March should settle down somewhere between the 17th -20th  ...if the current OLR forecast thoughts pan out as suggested





ENSO status and suggested forecast as we start Spring:



FEB. thoughts from the IRI: 




Final PV check for " Winter " 25? :  ....SSW on the way  ..and Perhaps???  an < Early? > final warming..

After staying quite strong all winter, as we reach March, the P.V. says:  .." I'm your Zero "



WX is cool site:



Tomer Burg's Strato Page:




ECMWF Weeklys ..Yesterday's data..    Goodbye P.V.






Check on West Coast SSTs  via SOTO as the warm season begins...   Still average to slightly above avrg. anomalies right off CA.. Still quite warm a little further offshore




..And basin- wide..   N. Gulf of CA also running a little warm for this time of the year ..Can it maintain itself for another few weeks until the Pacific starts to settle down allowing the Gulf to start warming more?? ..Would be a really good sign for the coming summer if so, esp if the current " warmer in the north / cooler in the south " dipole maintains itself thru the middle of June. 

[Foxpalms]

On 2/26/2025 at 5:26 PM, Arecaceus said:

Neanderthal museum is not part of the city and at higher elevations. Don't know what fairytale zoo is 😂 Usually it feels colder in more rural areas and it often is. My garden is located in the south of the city but the airport station also recorded I think 17-19°C so not much difference that day.

Last August I remember cologne city center was fairly warm at night but when travelling to Dusseldorf airport it was quite a bit cooler.

[Foxpalms]

Yesterdays low was 3.5c/38.3f due to the cold air mass. High was was 13.5c/56.3f with 39% humidity. UV index was a 3 with crystal clear skies all day. Everyday the temp has been overachieving the forecast. In sun trap areas of the garden such as 6ft away from the house it was getting into the mid 60s, microclimates definitely make a big difference.

Forecast looks good for the next week. With a warmer air mass coming in and with the sun getting stronger everyday it could easily be even warmer than forecasted.

[Foxpalms]

The forecast has been upgraded again. Today is running above the forecast so I'd imagine it could be even warmer. Crystal clear skies again today.

 

[PAPalmtrees]

I think spring is here to stay well at least I hope lol.

[Foxpalms]

Min of 39.2f/4c yesterday and a high of 14.5/59.9f with 29.8% humidity.  Today is forecasted to be around 15c, so I'd expect around 15.5-16c.

[PAPalmtrees]

its Currently 54°F with Thunder and lightning storms but next week is going to be really nice

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild 68F under a stained glass cealing of Cirrus.. on the wy to somewhere in the mid / upper 70s later,  cooler side of that if the clouds get any thicker..

Another decent day tomorrow as the next storm on the map edges it's way toward AZ..

Skeptical of the actual totals suggested but storm anticipated to pass through sometime on Friday may offer the best " decent " rainfall totals for the region since ......Quite some time ago.   Same idea for snowfall up in the higher reaches of the mountains.. We'll see of course.



After a chilly day Friday, temps quickly rebound to around 80 ..before the next suggested storm in the current forecast passes through.

Some model runs keep it reasonably strong as it passes, others over the last 24 hours, seem to be hinting at a track further north.

Beyond that, We'll see about the storm suggested for the end of next week.  It too may shift further north than is currently suggested as the overall pattern may undergo yet another transition right as Astro. Spring begins.. 

Likely one of those overly enthusiastic  " one and done / toss in the trash " model run but 00Z run of GFS last night was dangling the possible return of 90s in the forecast sometime after the 18th..   We'll see..

[sandgroper]

Currently 26c at 6.00am heading for a warm top of 39c.

[Foxpalms]

High of 60f/15.5c yesterday with 40% humidity. Mostly clear skies however a very thin layer of cloud during the morning slightly suppressed temps. What was surprising was raf lakenheath where they had perfectly clear skies to the north East reached over 16c with 19% humidity which is very low for this time of the year. 

[Than]

Looks like real spring and calendar spring will coincide this year here. This week has been all sunny and warm and will remain so for another few days at least. Maximum of 18 C / 65F today and minimum of 3 C / 37F. The weekend will be warmer apparently. No rain expected.

Today I had to remove spidermites from my Colocasia and it's only beginning of March!!! 😫

[Foxpalms]

Yeterday had a low of 41f/5c with a high of 18.2c/64.8f. humidity was 41%. The same thin layer out clouds suppressed temps during the afternoon hours. Where the skies remained clear all day it almost reached 20c. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A drippy n' dreary Cult 45F out there on your Friday, with some actual wet stuff falling from the sky as a compact, but decent storm rolls on through state 48..

While skies should clear a bit thru the afternoon, temps won't recover much ..Today at least..

Tomorrow and the rest of the weekend ahead look nice.. 14+ deg recovery tomorrow,  mid 70s on Sunday ..82F by the start of next week  ...as storm #2 approaches.. 



We'll see about the suggested rainfall totals w/ that one  ..and / or storm #3 towards the end of next week.

Regardless, A couple more decent rain events, sprinkled between quick warm ups this week, potential for a bigger warmup beyond the 17th, + only a couple mornings that could reach into the uppermost 30s / lower 40s = will push everything to wake up a bit faster..



Still keeping an eye on how things look after St. Patty's Day..   P.V. Collapse / Major SSW still on the way  ...Absolutely no avoiding that..

How this effects the weather pattern across the west for the 3rd and final weeks of March?  = Wx models need a little more time before they start latching onto any trustworthy potential scenarios  involving the SSW / P.V. Collapse..  FTM, other than teasing a hint here / there, none of the models are really " feeling it " so to say..

Have a feeling that by this time next week, there should be some better thoughts on how the last half of March / start of April might look.

 

[Palmensammler]

Here in southwest Germany it feels like spring.  Temps during the day of 17°C/63°F. Next week some showers but still like spring. 

Can't wait to start digging in the dirt.

Eckhard 

[Foxpalms]

Min of 11c/52f with a high of 18c/64.4f. slightly higher humidity today. Clouds suppressed the temps. Not a bad forecast for the next two days before the Arctic air mass moves in.

 

[Xenon]

Winter storm warning with heavy snow up north....

triple digits down south 😆

 

[Mazat]

in the community garden last week we had between -3.3 to -1.6 degrees Celsius/26.06 to 29.12 degrees Fahrenheit lowest temperatures only yesterday 0.1 degrees Celsius/ 32.18 degrees Fahrenheit so in the plus. The daily highs were 15.2 to 21.1 degrees Celsius/59.36 to 69.98 degrees Fahrenheit. Saturday was the warmest day. The differences between minimum and maximum temperatures are very large from our point of view.

[UK_Palms]

15C / 59F here at 4pm. After a run of 18C / 64F days here, the cold front is hitting now. A few parts of England reached 20C last week. It was nice while it lasted, but that is early spring for you. Back to winter again later this week it seems with the risk of overnight frost returning. Really looking forward to summer now.

[Silas_Sancona]

Wavering between 82 and 84F at 2:39PM under wall to wall sunshine....  With another 2 hours of daylight left, can we hit or briefly exceed 85F for the day?? ..We'll see.

Regardless, next storm on the maps reaches the deserts sometime tomorrow right around sunset, after another day of mainly clear skies before it rolls in and reaching the upper 70s / low 80s..



Dynamics associated w/ this system are just within the ballpark for generating some deg. of isolated spring thunderstorm potential as the bulk of forecast precip. reaches the area tomorrow evening..

Any rain lingering around after frontal passage later tomorrow  evening will be winding down / clearing out as the sun rises on Wednesday.. Enough clearing and we should reach the low 70s...


...Next storm arrives by Thursday and may also be positioned in such a manner to up the ante on thunderstorm activity just a hair as the cold front arrives..  Marginal opportunity for some stronger storms?  we'll see..

[Arecaceus]

The last week has been pure spring weather. Several days around 21-22°C and sunny days on end without a single cloud in the sky. Nor any wind. Nights have been pretty cold still. We even had some light frost in the morning a week ago. Tomorrow cold air roles in before it goes back up to spring temps after the weekend. After the dry February it's still very dry and the forecast doesn't promise much rain. I like that it isn't as wet as the last 2 years but now it's too little. Wildfire risk is already elevated. Today's high was 20.2°C and the low 2.9°C. ☀️☀️☀️🌡️🌴

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

With another 2 hours of daylight left, can we hit or briefly exceed 85F for the day?? ..We'll see.

Goal set....





Goal achieved...


Still 85F at 4:17PM..

[PAPalmtrees]

 77 in March definitely not complaining