What is your current yard temperature?

[RyManUtah]

forecasted high of 115F. We will see what we get. It’s 13:00. 

[Silas_Sancona]

With no clouds and very little smoke blanketing the sky today.. Stupid Hot around the valley today..

Sky Harbor reached 118F, a record.

Numbers around the rest of the valley looked similar to those here in Chandler when i checked at the same time.. Mainly in the 115-119F range.. That said, some 120 /120+ numbers on neighborhood stations around Chandler earlier.. Noticed numerous other 120-122F neighborhood readings in other areas of the valley as well.  Closest station to the house hit 122.  Local airport only hit 115F. Will be Sunday before temps drop below the 114-116F range.

East of the 101 / Downtown /South Chandler:


West of the 101 / either side of I-10, Ahwatukee area ( Neighborhoods on the south side of South Mountain )


 

[Silas_Sancona]

Another day, another sizzling +115F ( 117F in the neighborhood ) Add in some wind today and you get the open oven door/ human -size blow dryer effect..  Might be the last 115/115+ day -for now at least-.. Supposed to see a cool down for a majority of the coming week starting tomorrow w/ a high of * only * 111-113F ...bottoming out in the 105-108F range by Tuesday Wednesday, before temps rebound to the lower 100-teens by next weekend again.. ( at least by the current forecast for that time.. Could be hotter, or, ...could be ...wetter?.. )

Nothing to get too excited about justtt yet but some decent signs the monsoon may be awakening a little more than what was seen over the past week.. Relatively nothing-burger Tropical Storm Dolores, now currently coming ashore some where not too far south of  Puerto Vallarta as a depression looks to kick thunderstorm activity over the Sierra Madre in both Sinaloa and S. / Centrl. Sonora into high gear next week, with some of that moisture attempting it's first surge north toward AZ either mid-week, or late week.. Still possible any moisture that makes its way this far north could get shunted off to the east, but possible the deserts see something.. Models have been picking up on it too.. Most than likely, we'd see some sprinkles, maybe a trace / few hundredths worth of rain..  Dust is the bigger thing to watch right now..  Beyond that, as June comes to a close,  maybe more?..  We'll see..

Interesting that possible rain chances this week may on the day of.. or around the same time a Catholic festival celebrating the life of John the Baptist ( Dia de San Juan ) will be held across various areas here in the U.S., and down in Mexico. To many, Dia De San Juan is celebrated as a sign of the beginning of the summer rainy season, esp. here in the Southwest, and in Mexico.  Maybe a good sign some showers might be in the area on Thursday this year.. 

Other than that, looks like the next big heatwave may focus further north later next week.. Pac. N.W.?  Looks like it is your turn to roast..  For those looking, Some of the GFS runs on Tidbits have been churning out some crazy numbers for the north end of the Central Valley.. Don't believe it, unless 48 hours out.

How to start a hot summer... Perhaps we should begin using the distinct sound of records shattering, instead of the first Cicadas to be heard  as a sign summer has arrived

 

[Hutch]

Look in pretty toasty for the PNW....my forecast is is lots of water if u have it....soooo....sad the drought in the West .hope everyone ...monsoon goes crazy ...raon and all !+

[Hutch]

Sorry for all the in correct's palmtalk'rs ...ive had a few 

[Chester B]

96F - hardly a day below 90 in the next while.  

[palmsOrl]

79F here after a touch of rain, down from a high of 93F today.

[Silas_Sancona]

A hot ..but much cooler 98F at 9PM MST after " only " reaching a high of 109 earlier.. A bit muggy today too as the summer's first significant Gulf Surge raised dew points across the central / southern half of the state into the upper 40s-low 60 range  late last night.. Second, and somewhat deeper Gulf Surge is working it's way up the Gulf atm and may drive dew points into the upper 50s to around 70 ( out by Yuma and El Centro ) tomorrow. 

Storm coverage across the Sierra Madre south of the Border was somewhat weak today, but continues to grow stronger overall, slowly moving moisture north into AZ.

Current forecast for the area, for most of the week, looks cooler ( highs only in the 107-109F range ) Tue. thru Thursday before another round of 110-113F heat next weekend.

Interesting combination of Gulf Surge moisture pulses, remnant moisture from both former Tropical Storm Dolores ..and an upper level low down over Baja Sur.. and another upper level low currently developing over ..or just south of El Paso  ..and more moisture being drawn north/ west from storms in Sonora could bring the state some showers/ storms sometime tomorrow thru Thursday..

At this point, any rain we get ( except maybe in the high country / up on the Rim ) looks light.. say less than .10" to .20" -at best- in most places, ..unless more moisture leads to stronger storms than currently suggested in the forecasts.. Regardless, extra cloud cover may keep highs below 100F on Wednesday. Unless things change, same batch of moisture may also bring some sprinkles to pats of the CA. deserts, and further north into Utah Thursday or Friday.

As mentioned, heat builds back / moisture levels decrease across most of the state late week/ next weekend, but, that may be short-lived.. Increasing confidence among all the WX models/ 6-10, and 8-14 day outlooks things really start to get going in Sonora, leading to a better potential Arizona starts to see some decent Monsoon season action just beyond the weekend... And we need it. Thee are currently at least 8 large fires on-going here atm. Several of which exploded in size over the weekend after being set by lightning last week, and not really looking threatening up until Saturday.  Since things can change dramatically on a dime here, we'll see what actually happens as we end the month.


On a side note:

For everyone in Nor. Cal / the Pac. N.W. staring at various model runs ( GFS, ECMWF, others ) going " What the h<< is going on w/ suggested temperatures this weekend, and afterwards up there? " You ( and i )  aren't the only ones curious.  

FYI: 597-600mb heights are what we saw last week/ over the weekend across AZ.. Notice where they're sitting in the 00z run posted in the tweet.

When some of the " suggested " forecast highs for the time frame started showing up in various model runs,  first thought was the data servers / whatever info is being analyzed was wayyy off / running way too hot.. Then more runs were cuing in on the same crazy numbers.. Now at least one or two other WX models are also showing such numbers.  Yes, it's looking like it is going to get real' hot up there.. Question is.. Are some of the suggested numbers ever close to correct?  If so, the heat up there will be crazy. 

Could easily be " bad data " repeating itself.. But, it isn't entirely out of the question the severe lack of soil moisture there ( in the Sac. Valley ) is influencing suggested temp forecasts for this event.   Lets hope this is just the models overdoing the forecasts, by quite a bit, and not something else.

Besides the potential heat wave up there.. something else that should be watched carefully the rest of the week:

 

[Chester B]

Current forecast - I can't imagine this is actually going to hold up.

[sandgroper]

Bloody freezing cold here, this is the coldest start to winter I can remember in years, supposedly heading for 17c here today but at 9.00am it was struggling to get above 8c.

[Tyrone]

Not the coldest start for me in fact the minimums have been up but definitely the wettest. 

[Silas_Sancona]

Currently " only " 88F at 5PM MST  ( Was 106F yesterday )

A wet,  humid, ..and WONDERFUL..  Wednesday.  After a lot of wait, and the occasional dibble all afternoon yesterday, Monsoon 2021's opening act decided to bring periods of that wet stuff we almost forgot exists late last night / on and off through a good portion of the day today, and gusty winds at times.. Thunder/ lightning has been absent from most activity in this round.

While no washout, we'll take .03" - .07" for most areas around town in late June, esp. after last weeks nuke fest. 2018 would be the last time i saw more than  sprinkles before July.  ..And we were not alone..  Same particular set up also brought some early season moisture to parts of Southern CA as well today,  ..as was suggested earlier in the week.

Spent the morning at a local park and got caught in one of several quick showers today.. Had seen a particular species of Lizard once on visits there in the past.. After the same shower, saw several venture out from under various things lapping up what moisture they could before running back under cover when approached.  A testament perhaps to just how dry things have been here.

Slim chances a rogue shower wanders over the valley through the rest of the evening before things settle down ..for a few days.. While the rest of the week won't be as cool as today, 110F / any 110+ heat takes it's time to return, maybe only hanging around for the weekend..

Next rain / storm opportunities look to the state / region return by next Monday or Tuesday and may be much more extensive / soaking, let alone stick around for a few days, at least.

Mountains in Sonora were extremely active last night and continue to " prime the pump " so to say in regards to providing a solid moisture source to transport north/ northwest. Northern end of the Gulf of CA SSTs are also in good territory.. reaching the critical threshold of 26-27C late last week.

Looks like we'll be ending the month on a good note, but, there's a lot of summer ahead..   May it be wet!

 

[Hutch]

Awesome pic where is that location..looks really cool.....im hoping for full out Monsoons for the West .....fingers crossed !

[Silas_Sancona]

5 hours ago, Hutch said:

Awesome pic where is that location..looks really cool.....im hoping for full out Monsoons for the West .....fingers crossed !

Definitely hoping the forecast for the week ahead ..and the next 2-3 months is wet, ..and not just for Arizona. Especially important after the last 2 years which were horribly dry.

Location is a local Park ( Veteran's Oasis ) located on the south east side of Chandler, AZ ..Roughly 10-15 mins from where i'm located ( in Chandler )

View is across part of the 5 acre Groundwater Recharge Lake located in the center of the park.. There are several other Recharge ponds on the property that are filled / allowed to drain naturally at various times.  ..Is a huge local/ regional birding destination where some very uncommon species from more tropical parts of neighboring Sonora ( Mexico ) show up.

There's another popular park w/ similar groundwater recharge lake / ponds located a few miles miles north in a nearby suburb ( Gilbert, AZ. )  Nice place to visit as well, but always crowded / not nearly enough parking on some days..

This park has more parking, a couple low hills to hike up/ around, and views of the local mountain / county park on this side of town ( San Tan Mountains/ Regional Park ) and better views of the mountains that circle the east side of the valley.

[Chester B]

81F at 11 pm - most unusual. 

[Silas_Sancona]

102F at 10:40 PM MST after a high of 116F in the neighborhood earlier.  As mentioned in the PNW Wx thread, our het today is nothing compared to what everyone up there is seeing, and will continue to experience for at least another day.

Here, big changes are already underway which may lead to some decent early Monsoon season action across AZ -and the entire Southwestern US over the next 4 or 5 days ( ..and possibly beyond ) and No day time highs above 108F for... at least the week ahead.

Ingredients for that much anticipated switch to wetter conditions this week continue coming together over both Mexico, and across New Mexico as moisture pools over both areas, an inverted trough develops over New Mexico / Nor. Sonora.. An easterly wave continues progressing west across far S. TX and N.E. Mexico, and Enrique, currently a Hurricane, continues it's path north up the S.W. Coast of Mexico where it will pass over Puerto Vallarta before continuing toward Cabo. All these factors should drive quite a bit of moisture north / west into AZ and across CA/ NV. / UT.. thru about Thursday/ Friday < as things look right now > 

Some tweets from through the day:

Suggested PWATs ( Precipitable water content ) #'s for the week.. and a link to what a " Gulf Surge " is

Rain chances for S. Cal.. As things stood earlier ( Numbers haven't changed much when i checked again )

Current thought on Enrique's path.. and some food for thought.

 

While there is no way to tell how much rain may fall in a particular area, been awhile since i have seen 50-70+% rain chances in our local / Tucson NWS forecasts, let alone rain 20-40% chances all the way to the coast from roughly Santa Barbra to Tijuana, and up to about Fresno/ Southern section of the Sierra / Deserts, Las Vegas and further north.. Essentially, everyone has a decent opportunity to see something this week.

Could see some scattered storms ( and at least a decent dust storm threat ) around the valley tomorrow afternoon before things really kick into gear Tuesday.

Weather beyond Friday / Sat. remains somewhat up in the air..  Some model runs keep storm activity going, though perhaps more scattered ( more so up this way vs. down near Tucson/ across far Southern AZ. )  Regardless, Today's CPC forecasts to 14 days still look wet across the state, as do some other longer term forecast models.  We'll see what happens... But for now, looking like a good start.

Latest SST #'s in the Gulf ( of CA. ) Remember, every degree above 26C only fuels better rain chances ( when conditions come together of course )

With this being 4th of July week, the Suns on the hunt for a series clenching game, ( tomorrow night ) a pretty busy week ahead.. Lets see what kind of craziness the weather adds to the mix.

Regardless, Emptied space on the SD Card, have the tripod ready..  Let the show begin!..

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[Chester B]

Just about midnight and it’s still 91F. That’s got to be a record for here. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A hot and humid ( Dew Point  at 65deg atm ) 93F at 8:49am as the atmosphere decides whether or not we'll see more scattered storms today/ over the weekend.. before a down trend in precip. chances for half of / most of next week. Chances won't fade away completely, but may confine themselves mostly to the Rim / Mountains, maybe far S.E. AZ. before better opportunities for rain return later across more of the state.. As always though, things can change.


Regardless,  Heat isn't taking it's foot off the gas across either.  Keep an eye on this one.. Have seen some model runs suggesting highs exceeding the upper 100-teens / low 120's for the Central Valley at times..  As much as i want to say such numbers are likely inflated, compared to reality, we just saw that sometimes, those crazy " That's not possible " model runs can pan out. Coastal  S. Cal. may be spared the worst heat, again, for now. No doubt the clock is ticking though..
 

 

[SoulofthePlace]

+23C at 18 Hours, 140 meters above seal level, Pico island, Azores.

[ColdBonsai]

96 right now. Hit 104 in the yard today.

June tied our warmest on record, and broke the record for most days above 90 at 20 days.

My yard is getting crispy. I'm now sacrificing my lawn for the garden beds.

[sonoranfans]

80F and raining for 4 hrs on and off with heavy rains on radar heading right at us as tropical storm Elsa runs up the west coast of florida.  Rain means cooler weather here it was 90F yesterday.

[Reyes Vargas]

This year has been weird weather wise here.  First we had that massive arctic blast and now all this rain.  May we had 9.5" June 4.75" and July we are already up to 10" with the 8" we have gotten today so far and it's still raining.  Also it's supposed to rain more for the next 2 to 3 days.  I think we got the Florida weather.

[Jubaea_James760]

9 hours ago, Reyes Vargas said:

This year has been weird weather wise here.  First we had that massive arctic blast and now all this rain.  May we had 9.5" June 4.75" and July we are already up to 10" with the 8" we have gotten today so far and it's still raining.  Also it's supposed to rain more for the next 2 to 3 days.  I think we got the Florida weather.

Rain? What's that? 

[Reyes Vargas]

5 hours ago, James760 said:

Rain? What's that? 

It's that wet stuff That falls from the clouds from time to time 

Just woke up this morning and it is still coming down.  I think it rained all night.

At least my queens like it.  It should help them recover from the freeze.  Just hope it's not to much water.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Reyes Vargas

[RyManUtah]

45C / 113F - as heat wave numero dos sets in. Stay hydrated, my friends. 

[sonoranfans]

Elsa came and went, almost no wind and light to medium rain as she passed by.  Rain again today, mostly gentle without wind, standing water over many palm root areas, 79F, glad I put down florikan controlled release now, slow release would be gone.  One day without rain in the last 4 days but sunny for a few hours at the end of yesterday.  If it was like this year round here, it would be like big island Hawaii I guess.  

[Silas_Sancona]

109-111F w/ a 59-62deg Dew Point around the east valley atm..  May reach 112-115F ( w/ the same dew point readings possible ) tomorrow- Sunday..  Rain chances / temps. back down to normal ( 102-105 ) may return next week.

Nor. Sacramento Valley/ PAC N.W. may be sizzlin' again toward the 22nd-25th (  ** See Fcast Hour 330- 384, 12Z GFS run.  T - Tidbits. ***Obviously subject to change*** )

[kinzyjr]

Currently 80F.  We have almost received a month's worth the rain in 8 days:

[RyManUtah]

Currently 109℉ - RH 11%.

Topped the day at or near 115℉ in most locations, which when verified will break the record of 112℉ for this date - set in 1897. 
Briefly had some swells pop up, as noted by flash flood warnings. Nothing amounted from this, however. 
Tomorrow is similarly forecast. 

[kinzyjr]

47 minutes ago, RyManUtah said:

Currently 109℉ - RH 11%.

Topped the day at or near 115℉ in most locations, which when verified will break the record of 112℉ for this date - set in 1897. 
Briefly had some swells pop up, as noted by flash flood warnings. Nothing amounted from this, however. 
Tomorrow is similarly forecast. 

Now that is some real heat there!

[Silas_Sancona]

104F / 65Deg Dew Point at 10:36AM..

After last nights light show / Dust storm, looks like another round may be in the cards this evening..

Round #2??  Under a " Slight Risk " designation for strong /severe storms later.  Recap of last night's event below. Note, via the Lightning detection map, how the best part of the storm slid just to the south / southwest of the east valley. From a taking pictures perspective, wish this storm would have come just a tad closer to the house as it passed.  Also note  ( Via Radar ) how strong winds were. 80MPH is just above Cat. #1 Hurricane strength.

Something for those interested in doing some study:

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Quick update:  Current Temp. +  Dew Point ( 61deg. ) + Humidity ( 21% ) =  Check out the current " feels like " temp.  Oof!



Still looking like a wild night ahead..  Already some big storms blowing up south of Tucson / up in the mountains atm.
 

 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[UK_Palms]

Currently 61F at midnight here. This summer so far has been absolute shit here, although marginally better than the piss-poor spring. Excuse my French, but I expect a lot better than this. Previous years have been a lot better, but this year is absolute garbage. I don't know whether it is due to El Nina or what, but the past 6 months or so have been crap. Just not good enough. The palms are all surviving, but the weather can't get any worse really, put it that way. 2021 so far as a whole, is at a 3/10 rating. Things have got to improve here, fast, since the conditions just aren't good enough for the time of year. We have had below average conditions for almost 6 months now. It really isn't good enough. Almost depressing really. 

[RyManUtah]

Fingers crossed for a shower. 
 

 

[kinzyjr]

Currently a comfortable 74F.  Mother Nature apparently feels bad about being late to the rainy season party and decided to make up for it by providing an entire month's average rainfall in 12 days:

[cbmnz]

2.7C at 10pm, forecast -3C which is as low as ever see forecast here typically. But have been lower than this at same time on other evenings this winter and last, and just a standard radiaional freeze with quick warm up in sun tomorrow so won't cause any damage.

Edited July 13, 2021 by cbmnz

[sandgroper]

Perth has recorded 148mm of rain so far this July, the July average is 142mm so we're already above average only halfway through the month with plenty more to come.

[Tyrone]

3 hours ago, cbmnz said:

2.7C at 10pm, forecast -3C which is as low as ever see forecast here typically. But have been lower than this at same time on other evenings this winter and last, and just a standard radiaional freeze with quick warm up in sun tomorrow so won't cause any damage.

All the best with that forecast. That forecast would have me up all night in worry. 

[Tyrone]

2 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Perth has recorded 148mm of rain so far this July, the July average is 142mm so we're already above average only halfway through the month with plenty more to come.

That’s an incredible amount of rain for Perth. All that bad weather that was warned about on Monday kind of amounted to nothing out of the ordinary down here. We had more rain on Saturday. Our tally is 87mm for July so way behind Perth but we are at 730mm for the year. 

[sandgroper]

9 hours ago, Tyrone said:

That’s an incredible amount of rain for Perth. All that bad weather that was warned about on Monday kind of amounted to nothing out of the ordinary down here. We had more rain on Saturday. Our tally is 87mm for July so way behind Perth but we are at 730mm for the year. 

BOM reckons we'll see up to another 20mm today, amazing for Perth. I know the cockies in the eastern wheatbelt are happy as the rain is getting right through to them, they reckon it'll be the best season in years.