What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

Some more tweets from SoCal. as the rain continues there.. large area of moderate rain now working it's way north through San Diego.  Will be interesting to see how rainfall totals look tomorrow.   Little bit of popcorn stuff  w/ occasional flashes popping up around PHX atm.

..From Mike.

Others..
 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Partly cloudy, 80F  at 10:16AM MST ..and waiting to see how the day will play out.. Interesting set up across AZ toady regardless.. (  Yes, 2" sized hail potential is mentioned )

Rainfall totals from San Diego ..and surrounding areas ..as of 5am.. Seem a little less than i'd have thought based on how the radar was looking out there around 1AM, imo.

You know you're going somewhere when your FIRST storm/ lightning capture is this epic.. *** Credit to the Photographer ( ..and soon to be fellow Storm Chaser / Lightning adrenaline junkie ) 

Another no - tripod, but goody from Mike O.

Was awaken by several good strikes from some quick moving storms here not long after my last post  ..and was up until 3:30am taking, editing, and waiting for more..


Not a bad way to sacrifice sleep. ~ Will put 'em up later..~

[RyManUtah]

High was 82F  (28c) currently 64F (18c) 66%RH and raining 

[Silas_Sancona]

90F and high cloud filtered sunshine at 1:48PM MST..  Another day in the low 90s tomorrow / 82-87 over the weekend and Monday before a quick but pretty dramatic cool down  Tuesday - Thursday.. We'll see how far south it makes it but looking more and more like we'll see the first back to back day stretch of upper 60- 75F highs of the Fall.. Lows go from the mid 60s tonight / tomorrow night, thru the 50s over the weekend, before bottoming out in the upper 40s / low 50s Tuesday- Thursday.. Rebounding to the mid/ upper 50s - low 60s by next weekend.  No rain forecast here, but the high country could see a few showers ..maybe a light dusting of Snow ( at the highest locations ) sometime between tomorrow and Tuesday / Wednesday..

Pattern may stay active beyond that.

Current look at the PNA:  In the West, X values generally suggest:  Negative = potentially unsettled / stormy / cool.  Positive =  typically quieter / milder.  **Obviously the state of other Atmo. circulation patterns can amplify or cancel out whatever signal appears in the PNA.



October update for the NMME is out today.. Overall  " Idea "  continues to suggest dry dry dry ..and mild ( at least )  for the west ( Sans the Pac. N.W. ) Have a few reservations, even if pretty confident on the trend in view.   As usual, pick your model to bet on ..or compare to later ..if you choose..

Precip:.....

Nov:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead1.html

Dec:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead2.html

Jan:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead3.html

Feb:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Lead4.html


Temps:.....

Nov:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html

Dec:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead2.html

Jan:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead3.html

Feb:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead4.html

 

[kinzyjr]

Currently 76F with some MUCH needed rain:

[kinzyjr]

17 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

Currently 76F with some MUCH needed rain:

Groundhog day - another day of rain

[Will]

60°F/43°F or 16°C/6°C sadly already 

Hoping for no frost till December 

[RyManUtah]

55F and extremely foggy as the sun comes up. Hard to show in phone photos. 

 

 

[kinzyjr]

59 minutes ago, RyManUtah said:

55F and extremely foggy as the sun comes up. Hard to show in phone photos.

We had really thick fog here as well.  Fog + filifera is a really neat scene!

[RyManUtah]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

We had really thick fog here as well.  Fog + filifera is a really neat scene!

Agreed! I love fog. Courtesy of 14 hours of drizzle and cooler air. 

[kinzyjr]

76F and rain at the house, but milder and dry downtown:

 

[Silas_Sancona]

Sunny, breezy, and 84-87F around the neighborhood atm ( 1:47PM MST ).. Will probably be about as warm as it gets for the rest of the day with temps about to nose dive after sunset/ overnight.

By tomorrow, only expecting a high in the mid/ upper 60s to around 72 locally. Low tonight should end up somewhere in the low/ mid 50s.. 44-49 tomorrow night - Thursday morning.

Tucson may see the first upper 30 deg low of the season, with other areas southeast of there seeing lows in the 30s, possibly bottoming out in the 27-30F mark tomorrow night in the river valleys. Freeze advisories are up down there. 

Mountains / Rim / majority of Nor. AZ will see lows reach the 20s easily in many spots, with a dusting ..to about an inch of snow possible down to about 5K / 5.5K ft. Might see a sprinkle here, if  lucky, sometime overnight.

 Typical warm fall weather returns across the state by next weekend  ( ..Highs bounce back to the mid-80s - 90 /  lows 55-62 here )

Could be a few more cool, dry storms passing across the northern half of the state as the end of October rounds the corner. One currently suggested around the 25th might offer up another chance of showers -if it digs a little further south.

[RyManUtah]

Raining - with decent winds out of the southwest. Should change direction tonight as a the cold front moves in. 
 

70F currently - 30% humidity (still rising). Expecting the next couple of nights to dip into the mid 40s, followed by 30s.. 

Tomorrow’s high is currently forecast at only 57F. We’ll see what kind of water we get. 
 

[RyManUtah]

18 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Mountains / Rim / majority of Nor. AZ will see lows reach the 20s easily in many spots, with a dusting ..to about an inch of snow possible down to about 5K / 5.5K ft.

Indeed. Snow on the Arizona strip mountains this morning. 42F at sunrise in town. 
 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, RyManUtah said:

Indeed. Snow on the Arizona strip mountains this morning. 42F at sunrise in town. 
 

We ended up getting sprinkles, barely avoiding a pretty potent ( but quick moving ) squall line that managed to develop west of town,  then race through the valley..  Lots of dust and pretty sure we experienced a downburst / straight line wind event right as the squall line passed..

Wind was strong enough that it shook the house, brought down trees / large limbs in the neighborhood ..and scrapped a lot of shingles off the west facing side of the roof that is fully exposed to the wind  and scattered them across the front yard /driveway and out into the island in the middle of the street.. Can see where a bunch more are ready to come off if we have another big wind event. 

Winds are down, but still very dusty / hazy and 64F at 10:22AM. Still looking like we'll bottom out in the 44-47F range tonight.

[RyManUtah]

36 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Wind was strong enough that it shook the house, brought down trees / large limbs in the neighborhood ..and scrapped a lot of shingles off the west facing side of the roof that is fully exposed to the wind  and scattered them across the front yard /driveway and out into the island in the middle of the street.. Can see where a bunch more are ready to come off if we have another big wind event. 

I think we may have experienced one of those as well. The highest gust I recorded last night was 64mph. Stayed away from the windows.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, RyManUtah said:

I think we may have experienced one of those as well. The highest gust I recorded last night was 64mph. Stayed away from the windows.. 

Wind reports posted from our NWS had the highest wind gust here in Chandler ( likely recorded at the airport a few miles from the house ) at 47mph..  Pretty sure what blew through here last night was about what you experienced, possibly stronger based on the damage i saw while running errands earlier, plus the damage to the roof.. A couple of the trees completely taken down up the block ( Chilean Mesquite / Palo Verde ) were quite large, esp. the Palo Verde ..Completely uprooted, BIG trunk. ) No way wind gusts in the 40s did that kind of damage, lol.

[GottmitAlex]

Oct 16/ 2021

11:35 AM PST 

35c/ 95F

2% RH 

[GottmitAlex]

[Silas_Sancona]

Classic mid- October afternoon across the low desert 'Val ..84-89F under Cirrus filled skies..  A little cooler tomorrow and Tuesday ..but essentially the same weather thru at least the end of next week ( maybe a couple more 90s by then ) We'll see what happens after that..

On a positive note.. Some encouraging signs for most of California as we round the corner and head towards November..  As Dan says.. final totals might not be exactly as this model run is suggesting, but  some good rains look to be on the way for a good chunk of golden state real estate, and areas to the north / east.. Some other model output from different sources is in the same ballpark as well..  Might get in on some of this here too, depending on how things turn out later..

BTW: for anyone who was living in the S.F. Bay Area at the time, or still does:  Happy Loma Prieta Earthquake Anniversary..

[UK_Palms]

High of 21C / 70F here this afternoon after a balmy low of just 17C / 62F here last night. Central London didn’t drop below 18C last night, so an exceptionally mild night for late October at 51N. Pretty windy though. 

 

 

[GottmitAlex]

[GottmitAlex]

[Silas_Sancona]

A toasty ( for late October ) 87F after  a long day spent further exploring another slice of AZ ..and wearing myself out.. Luckily, it was about 10 deg. cooler at 4,000 ft.


Area further explored today is the second area i'd explored on Monday's adventure.. Returned there in part to get better pictures of some stuff i wasn't satisfied with ( picture quality -wise ) and to see if i could reach a pretty stunning section of this area.. 

Won't say where i headed, but this will be a special thread, for several reasons..  Unlike other threads related to desert-y stuff, will not be breaking this thread up between the " Tropical looking Plants, and Ohana Nui sections of the forum.. Everything from this trip will go into Ohana Nui.

All i'll say is  ..what a hike.. Distance between start / destination might not have been 10's of miles, but  ..Been quite awhile since i've hiked that kind of Terrain / Topography.. Effects of a Massive Wildfire that ripped through the area back in June, followed by this summer's epic Monsoon were very apparent ..and made following sections of the trail a bit of a challenge at times..  All good though.. Think everyone will enjoy what is to come, esp. anyone already familiar w/ similar landscapes.

While there's a lot of editing to do before posting, i'll offer a couple hints.. Photos were taken from the biggest hill i had to ascend /descend to get to today's main destination.  Trail seen in picture 2  branches from the trail you'd follow once you descend into the valley ahead.. Take that trail, and i have no idea where you'd end up, lol.  several others like that along the way.. Nothing out there is marked.

Picture 3 shows what lies ahead after reaching the top of the hill.. Though i'd have to ascend the trail ( on the right in the picture ) on the other side of this Valley to get where i was going, but lucked out ..Remaining distance to my destination is hidden by the cut in the hills to the left of the stock pond.  Passes under the High Tension Lines / Tower you see on the hill above.

Testing making the images a tad bigger than i typically do as well,  just to see if they'll fit..

Top of the hill, looking back from where i'd come from. Car is parked " somewhere " beyond the ridge.


Distant Canyon to my right..


Valley and hills between where i'm at, and where i need to go.. To the untrained eye, the valley ahead looks rather shallow ..Not at all, lol.. What you can't see is the steep switchbacks you have to descend to get down there.. A lot of this section of the trail was washed down to large, loose rock, and the knobby / undulating Bedrock below.. Not bad going down, a bit rough headed back up later.. anyway.. Compared to many places i have explored here, very different country out here.

 

[Palmensammler]

Tonight we had the first frost of this winter season -1°C/30F.

I'm happy that all my non frost hardy plants are inside already.

Would love to have the summer heat of 2020 again.

Eckhard 

[UK_Palms]

I had my coldest night in almost 6 months on Thursday night, with a low of just 0.7C / 33F out here in the rural country, under clear skies all night. We had a lot of rain the previous night and there was ice on the tops of the cars and on my banana plants. I thought for sure they would be toast from what was effectively just a touch of frost, but the bananas almost look like nothing has happened. I'm talking about the Abyssinian type as well. Maybe because I wasn't technically at or below freezing (0C / 32F). I was just a shade above. That 1F probably made the difference.

 

Nighttime temperatures are well above freezing for the foreseeable future. The low at London City airport that night was only 7C / 45F, which is over 6C / 12F warmer than my location. I am further inland here, but it still shows the extent of the UHI in London. They get about 5C of protection, especially on clear nights when radiational cooling is a problem for me out here.

 

 

Temperatures are holding up pretty well in northeast Europe going into November.

 

 

Interesting to see that the last week of October and first week of November will have the highest temperature anomaly this year, both for the northern hemisphere and also globally. Lots of places, especially in the northern hemisphere, showing well above average temperatures for the time of year.

 

 

[ColdBonsai]

Currently 50 degrees with some pleasant rain from the storm hitting the bay area. We tend to be in the line of fire whenever these atmospheric rivers take aim at northern California, which is especially welcome in winter since they also provide mild temperatures more often than not. 

[GottmitAlex]

[kinzyjr]

It's been way too dry in October.  Finally got some liquid sunshine this evening:

 

[Will]

Since November normally has an average of 8/1°C I would say thats quite a warm start into November 

[kinzyjr]

77F on a clear evening after a rainy day.  Perfect for being outside without dying from dehydration. 

Looks like the AC will get a break for a few days this weekend:

 

[UK_Palms]

Temperatures are really plummeting across Europe now with lows of -26C (-15F) in the Scandinavian arctic already. Quite widespread frosts across France and Germany down to -4C (24F). Here are the overnight lows for 24th-25th October. 

 

I moan a hell of a lot about the UK climate, but at least I'm not in Scandinavia. Stockholm, Sweden saw -1.7C as early as 5th September...

 

First frosts started in eastern Europe way back in late August / early September, almost 2 months ago now. They had ground frosts by early October, so only a 3 month growing season from late May - late August really. 

 

Just 1-2 miles inland from the French Med they experienced frost as early as mid October. The island of Corsica in the Med didn't escape either. Quite a widespread frost across France in mid October...

 

Winter is well and truly on its way. Temperatures are still holding up okay in southern England though, for now at least. The lowest nighttime temp at London City airport is 6.9C (44F) so far. Temperatures are running a shade above average this week with highs of 16-17C. I recorded 18.1C here on Monday. 

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by UK_Palms

[Ryland]

It's been a mild October here so far, especially with the lows frequently above 10ºC.  I had an overnight low of 14.4ºC on 19 October, followed two days later by the coldest night of the autumn so far, 4.8ºC.  We're expecting another couple days of 16-18ºC followed by a drop into normal November temperatures of 10-12ºC.  No sign of a frost anytime in the near future (though last winter the first frost was in January, I doubt we'll be that lucky twice in a row).

It has been good for the palms.  Last new growth of the year opening out and slowing down.

@UK_Palms based on the difference between you and London, you do really seem to be in a frost hollow!

[UK_Palms]

@Ryland I didn’t realise Manchester had such a pronounced UHI effect. Then again the Manchester-Liverpool urban area is the second biggest in the UK with a population of about 3 million. That obviously generates a fair bit of artificial heat. You guys seem to routinely run about 2-3C warmer than the surrounding rural areas. I could imagine that difference is even more pronounced during winter, given that you were frost free until January up there at 53N in northwest England. 

I am definitely located in a bit of a frost pocket down here in western Surrey, similar to west Kent on the opposite side of the Surrey Hills. However, the main reason for the difference in temperature between my location and London is just the massive UHI that a city of 20 million people generates. The London metropolitan area is probably closer to 25 million when you include the migrant population. At least 1 in 3 Londoners are foreign born migrants who aren’t included in the stats. It may be even higher than that. The population is certainly way, way more than actually reported, which obviously results in an even bigger UHI. 

Actually it is a monstrous UHI that adds about 5-6C of protection for central London on the coldest nights. London City Airport by the Thames was running 7C warmer than me on one night last winter. Even the London suburbs usually run about 3-4C warmer than me in winter and they are only 15 miles away from me. I get no protection whatsoever out here in the rural countryside. I don’t even benefit from Guildford’s small UHI as I am located 3 miles southwest of the town in the rural countryside. When I reach 0C, Guildford is usually 2C, the London suburbs are 4C and central London is like 6C. A massive difference! London’s UHI is more pronounced during winter nights and during radiation freezes, as opposed to summer days and convectional cold when it is less noticeable. 

Edited October 26, 2021 by UK_Palms

[Silas_Sancona]

68-74F under full sun around the area at 11:30am.  Big storm that slammed most of California ..and the entire West Coast?  nothing but a few clouds and maybe a shower or two for the high country / far E. AZ overnight.. Getting itself reorganized over the high Plains where they could see some big storms as everything marches east.

For the rest of the week? almost an exact repeat of last week.. seasonal fall weather today / tomorrow,  back to the mid/ upper 80s / 90 by Friday.. Then hanging in the 80s / lows in the 50s- low 60s as November begins.  Were some hints we might see a decent fall rain event in some the model runs over the weekend, but that has been axed..  Nothing but optimal Arizona weather looks to continue for awhile.  Could be a different story east of the state shortly after the start of next month..

On another note, after lots of editing,  Just about time to see what lies beyond that Tunnel.. 

 

[UK_Palms]

An exceptionally mild night up here for 51N, given that it is November in just a few days time. My official low temperature last night was 15C (59F) but parts of London didn’t drop below a balmy 16C (61F) last night. Again this is at 51N in the last week of October! 

These are the London temperatures at 5am…

 

Overcast conditions should suppress the amount of daytime warm up, but it will still be a lot warmer than average…

A few spots may hit 20C (68F)…

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by UK_Palms

[GottmitAlex]

[amh]

Currently 45.1F with a due point of 44.6F, clear sky and 0 wind.

[amh]

53.2F with a dew point of 52F.  Might freeze Friday night.

On 10/31/2021 at 12:31 AM, amh said:

Currently 45.1F with a due point of 44.6F, clear sky and 0 wind.

Sorry about the millennial spelling uh-oh their.

[Ryland]

Currently only 7.5 C (45.5 F) at 2pm.  Last night was the season's coldest so far, with a low of 3.9 C (39.0 F).  After a mild October, November has been off to a very cold start.  I was at the Manchester City match last night (8pm kickoff) in full thermals and winter coat, which was just about enough.

I've run my October statistics now, which does show we had quite a good month:

Average high: 14.3
Average low: 10.2
Average temperature: 12.2
Maximum temperature: 18.9
Minimum temperature: 4.8
Coldest day: 10.0
Warmest night: 14.5

Most notable are the warm nighttime temperatures - an average low of 10.2 for October is unusually mild, and to have an overnight low of 14.5 is as well - that would be normal in midsummer.