What is your current yard temperature?

[UK_Palms]

Dyce / Aberdeen at 57N only saw a low of 14.2C / 57F last night, which is crazy mild given the northern latitude. Only 0.5C off the November minima temperature record for Scotland, which was also set in Aberdeen back in 2007. My low here was 11.4C (52F). Mild nights in late autumn/fall aren't uncommon in the UK, but this is pushing it in places, given the northern latitude...

UK Nighttime temps in C (19/11/21)

 

 

Dyce / Aberdeen also reached +16.8C on Friday afternoon at the nearest 'official' station, which is 3-4 miles inland. The coastline of western Scotland would have been warmer and closer to 17C. Potentially 18C maybe. So a very, very mild day for 57N in late November. Again, that is the same latitude as Juneau, Alaska more or less. Anyway, here is the UK maxima for 19/11/21. These are all official Met stations...

 

 

 

Europe minima (19/11/21

 

Europe maxima (19/11/21)

 

Forecasting and data representation is in a whole new age now. This is accuracy and detail at a whole new level. I am currently reading 11.9C (53F) here at 1am right now, but we do have a cold front due to hit in the next 24 hours, dropping temps. I will be well down to single figures C here within the next 36-48 hours...

 

 

Cold wave incoming from the NE... (American model)

 

Long range into December not looking too bad for the UK however...

[Silas_Sancona]

Near perfect late November weather ( for many ) continues... 74-78F currently around Chandler, w/ highs expected to reach the 82-85F range again later today..  Same story for tomorrow as Thanksgiving Week begins..  After tomorrow, as long as passing high clouds don't stop highs from reaching the suggested 80s,  that will be day 21 of 80 / 80+ for the month.  As of the 19th, we have had 19 back to back days in the 80s which breaks the old record ( 17 straight days ) set back /  tied in 2019, 1999, 1989, '81, 1967.

Lows stay continue to stay in the barely wavering range, in 46-50's - something range for most of the valley. Some spots in low lying, rural areas outside of town have had a couple nights in the lower 40s so far this month.

Forecast " chance " of spit for the Valley and Tucson / light showers for the high country for the Tuesday- Thanksgiving time period has been reduced to some clouds / mid/ upper 70s here / Tucson / lower Desert areas to the west,  and sprinkles across most of the Rim / Mountain country north and east of Phoenix.

 Subtropical High pressure rebounds across the area around next weekend, with highs potentially headed back to the low 80s as we end the month..

While obviously cooler than Phoenix / rest of the lower deserts, high country has been warmer than Avg. thru the month as well, w/ many nights not dropping below 20 -so far-. Has been warm enough that Ski areas in Flagstaff have had to push back opening dates simply because it hasn't been cold enough to snow ..let alone make any.. that might hang around for any length of time.  Haven't heard anything from Mt. Lemmon, but imagine it is the same story down there.. No snow / not cool enough to make any..

[GottmitAlex]

1:15pm 

Nov 21st, 2021

90F

[GottmitAlex]

I guess to wrap up the day:

 

[Will]

Back garden:

Front garden:

Well its getting cold here already

[Silas_Sancona]

63-67F around Chandler ..and the rest of the east valley at 8:49am after a few spritzles yesterday afternoon / early evening.. 75-78F anticipated for the afternoon.  Give or take passing clouds at times, roughly the same weather can be expected for Thanksgiving day/ Black Friday  ..and really for the final days of the month / opening days of December. 

While Wx Underground and our NWS office point n' click keep us in the " reasonable " upper 70s to about 81 or 2  range < on a couple days > as November closes / December begins, For now at least,  Accuweather, always ( ..well, almost always ) the overly optimistic temperature forecast, has highs reaching into the 82-84-ish range on several days, inc the first 5 or  6 days in Dec. Avrg. highs for the same week goes from 66 to 64F.  Lows, according to all 3 forecasts, stay in the uppermost 40s ( over the weekend ) and low / mid 50s after that.. 

Maybe some cooler ( ...but not cold ) days beyond the 8th-10th ( upper 60s to lowest 70s / lower 40s ..maybe a couple upper 30s ) ..but, not at all surprised if that changes.. gets nudged upward a bit over the next week..  That said, Is that time of year, and anything can happen..  Still, about as perfect as the weather get here..  Local or visiting, hope you're out enjoying it..

[UK_Palms]

@Will A diurnal shift of 36.9C….? 

[Will]

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

@Will A diurnal shift of 36.9C….? 

No haha

Must have been from a few weeks ago and sun i think 

[Ryland]

It's 0.9ºC here - the coldest temperature of the autumn so far.  A touch of ground frost on the cars.  There's a potential for an air frost later this week.

[GottmitAlex]

49 minutes ago, Ryland said:

It's 0.9ºC here - the coldest temperature of the autumn so far.  A touch of ground frost on the cars.  There's a potential for an air frost later this week.

Whoah! Let's hope winter isn't as unforgiving. 

[UK_Palms]

4 hours ago, Ryland said:

It's 0.9ºC here - the coldest temperature of the autumn so far.  A touch of ground frost on the cars.  There's a potential for an air frost later this week.

That’s nothing mate. I have already been down to -1.4C here on Tuesday morning. Manchester’s UHI clearly keeping you guys a few degrees milder on the clear nights and above freezing so far. I get no UHI effect whatsoever here, so the temperature can really plummet on clear nights, which we have had lately. I have gone below freezing a few times here now. I don’t think St James Park in central London has gone below 3C yet. The same with London City Airport. Most south coast spots haven’t gone below 3-4C, or at least not on the immediate coastal areas. 

Here are the minima for recent nights, during this late November cold snap. These are all official Met stations so they are genuine recordings. Other Met stations are running in the background, but not displayed, so they will also influence the colour of the maps. A real cold end to November, after weeks of mild, above average temps. It may be the coldest end to a November in about a decade, certainly for southern England. 

22/11/21

23/11/21

24/11/21

 

25/11/21

 

I hung onto some cloud cover last night and didn’t drop below 2.4C, however I’m expecting a low of -2C or maybe -3C here tonight under clear skies. There isn’t a cloud in the sky again today, so I fear the worst come this evening when radiational cooling begins. It’s almost certainly going to be my coldest autumn night, by far. Central London probably won’t drop below +2-3C.

Also, how are your rainfall totals looking for November in Manchester? I’ve only had 0.18 inches here so far and it’s December next week. November is usually one of the wettest months. Goes to show how erratic the rainfall has been this year. April only had 0.04 inches as well. This autumn in general has been far drier than average. 

Edited November 25, 2021 by UK_Palms

[Xenon]

Warm morning here, 68F at 7am local time 

Cold front is on the way though...next few nights in the mid 40s 

[Ryland]

58 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

Also, how are your rainfall totals looking for November in Manchester? I’ve only had 0.18 inches here so far and it’s December next week. November is usually one of the wettest months. Goes to show how erratic the rainfall has been this year. April only had 0.04 inches as well. This autumn in general has been far drier than average. 

It's been a pretty dry month, but I don't have a rain gauge.  I don't know where I'd find out... the Weather Underground almanac for Manchester (which appears to be based the airport) is showing 0.0 and that's definitely wrong, because it has rained.  I wouldn't have thought of it as anything exceptional though, there just tends to be rolling variability throughout the year with wet/dry spells.  Overall November has been a little dry but not like the rainless June earlier.

[UK_Palms]

45 minutes ago, Ryland said:

It's been a pretty dry month, but I don't have a rain gauge.  I don't know where I'd find out... the Weather Underground almanac for Manchester (which appears to be based the airport) is showing 0.0 and that's definitely wrong, because it has rained.  I wouldn't have thought of it as anything exceptional though, there just tends to be rolling variability throughout the year with wet/dry spells.  Overall November has been a little dry but not like the rainless June earlier.

Hardly any of the Wunderground stations show precipitation. The airports certainly don’t seem to, including London City Airport which is the default London station on Wunderground. I have two rain gauges here that have recorded 0.09 inches and 0.18 inches, so there is bit of a discrepancy there. One is obviously wrong.

Either way it has been a very dry month here in the southeast. I think quite a few places may be on course for their driest November on record, including me here. I can only remember one day this month where it actually rained and even that was just a bit of ‘drizzle’ for an hour or so. December will probably be an absolute washout though to make up for it. In a way I hope it is, because at least that Atlantic influence will give us mild conditions and cloud cover at night, unlike the clear skies we have had this month.

You know winter is here when the snow starts falling in northern Spain. Even the milder regions have been getting it. There is even talk of northern and central England getting some snow next week. I guess time will tell… 

 

 

[GottmitAlex]

Wonderful morning! We began at 8AM @22C

 

[GottmitAlex]

2:00 pm PST Nov/26/2021

89F

 

 

 

[GottmitAlex]

Here we go!

 

 

 

 

[Ryland]

Sunset already, at 3:35pm:

It's by far the coldest day of the autumn so far.  Currently 2.9ºC, after a high of 3.5.  Overnight low last night was 1.5ºC, but since the sky has cleared today I think the first hard frost will happen tonight.  I've seen forecast for -3ºC overnight, which if it comes to pass would exceed last winter's minimum temperature.

[GottmitAlex]

[Ryland]

It's -2.2ºC  (28ºF)  coldest night of the autumn so far (though feeling very much like winter).  It's also the coldest November temperature I've experienced in England.  Very unusual this early.  I was walking with some friends in their sixties yesterday and they said they hadn't even seen a spell like this in November before.  We've had two nights below 0, the first one being the first frost of the season.  The day in between (yesterday) only got to a high of 0.4ºC, which makes it the coldest day since 2018.  I'm hoping this is not an omen of a terrible winter to come.  On the other hand, it could well be the coldest we get all winter (last winter got to -2.7ºC in February).

It snowed yesterday afternoon and I bounced some snow off the Brahea and Washingtonia fronds.  I brought the potted Butia in out of an excess of caution (it does look fab though, shame I don't have space for it as an indoor palm long term).  Today will be another cold one but above freezing and no frost tonight, followed by a normal November day of 10ºC tomorrow, so it's been a short, sharp event.

[UK_Palms]

@Ryland It has been an exceptionally cold spell for late autumn/fall here. Certainly one of the coldest I have ever experienced. I mean even St. James Park in central London went down to -2.1C last night. London City Airport had its first frost too with a low of 0C there last night. My lowest here was -1.7C last night. On the whole, very cold for the time of year. Clear skies at night causing severe radiation freezes for most of the UK.

Autumn has been pretty mild-warm for us in general this year and pretty good, but this last week has been one of the coldest ends to an autumn in decades. Hardly palm killing temps, but certainly cold for the time of year. I am surprised how cold it got in London especially. Ireland on the other hand escaped it with parts of southwest Ireland not dropping below +9C last night. Part of that is just due to freak luck though as we have a cold northeasterly wind blowing in from Scandinavia and they probably had plenty of cloud cover in Ireland, unlike England and Scotland. 

The dusting of snow I had yesterday evening has melted by now thankfully and it is currently 3.3C with sunny skies. Cold as hell though with a northeasterly wind still. I’m expecting it to go down to 0C around 6pm this evening, before a warm Atlantic front moves in overnight and lifts the temperature to +10C by sunrise tomorrow. 

[Scott W]

Received four new thermometers with daily min/max recording to place around various parts of the yard.  Hoping to see how much temperature varies across my one acre, which has a low lying area next to water, high side with oak coverage and large trees and bamboo on another side.

[Silas_Sancona]

78-83F under wall to wall sunshine around Chandler and the East Valley at 3:27PM.. Looks like a warm to ..dare some say " hot ", ..by " winter " standards.. week for the region for the last day of November / start of December with highs staying in the 77-83-85F range thru at least Saturday or Sunday as a summer- esque ridge sets up over the west... 

No doubt more daily ( maybe monthly ) records may be in play here and there in coming days.

This, and today's 8-14 day outlook from the CPC conflicts with some runs of the GFS that have been trying to introduce rain / snow chances for CA / AZ < and other parts of the Southwest > over the last week or so, only to get pushed back in other updates.

Whats pretty crazy is what some other spots are experiencing. As of today, it has been 222 days since Denver has had -any-  snow.. and they may add several more days this week. How crazy would it be if they went an entire year..

..Hot Fall weather isn't confined to United States either...

For what it's worth ( ..Not all that much, haha ), Looking at the December outlook for Chandler on Accuweather, is it possible we see 20+ days ABOVE  70 during the final month of 2021?  Guess we'll have to wait and see.  First 12-14 days look pretty set in stone right now.   Lows stay in the 48 -low 50's range.

 

[amh]

Currently 53F, but was 31F this morning.  That was the second  freeze of the season, but the bananas and canna survive. 

[sipalms]

2 hours ago, Scott W said:

Received four new thermometers with daily min/max recording to place around various parts of the yard.  Hoping to see how much temperature varies across my one acre, which has a low lying area next to water, high side with oak coverage and large trees and bamboo on another side.

Fantastic idea, Scott! I would love to find some of these, do you know the model of the thermometers above? or could you post a link to them? Cheers

[UK_Palms]

Send some of that record heat this way because I have experienced what I can only describe as late January weather/temperatures here in recent days, rather than late November conditions. Freezing cold winds coming down from the arctic and Scandinavia pushing polar air down. After 10 weeks of decent, above average autumn/fall weather, the final 1-2 weeks have probably been the worst end to a November that I can ever remember. Cold nights with radiations frosts and some of the lowest daytime maximums on record in places. 

 

Thankfully it's warming up as I speak here. At 6pm this evening I was only at 2.9C / 37F, however I am now up to 7C / 45F at 2am and expecting 10C / 50F by sunrise. 

 

Scandinavia on the other hand...

 

Here were the lows in Scandinavia last night

 

Greece on the other hand reaching 31.1C / 87F at 4am in Crete, 2 days outside of winter...

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by UK_Palms

[GottmitAlex]

23 hours ago, GottmitAlex said:

 

[Scott W]

14 hours ago, sipalms said:

Fantastic idea, Scott! I would love to find some of these, do you know the model of the thermometers above? or could you post a link to them? Cheers

Thanks!

Got them on Amazon for $9.78 each, AcuRite 00318 Indoor Outdoor Suction Cup Digital Thermometer.  Suction cup is removable for alternate mounting options

[Silas_Sancona]

On December 1st...  Currently 83F hare and around Chandler, ..and at Sky Harbor in Downtown Phoenix at 2:18PM  under mostly sunny skies..  83 Ties the daily record at Sky Harbor, not sure about here.. Another hour or so to tack on a deg. or two more in both places. ( *** Just ticked up to 84 in Downtown Chandler ..2:30PM )

Yesterday's 80+ reading at Sky Harbor breaks the record of 24 days of 80/ 80+ for November. Old record ( 24 days ) was set in 1949.

About the same for tomorrow.  ~For now~,  76-79F ( ..or a few more 80s  ) looks good for Friday -Monday.  Lowest it -Might-  cool off to,  ..is about 73 late next week.  Still seeing some rain /snow chances in the GFS model runs, but seems like many runs are backing off the more pronounced rain / snow chances, more significant potential cool down see in earlier runs.. We'll see how it all pans out later of course.

Mid -40s is about the coolest lows will reach, according to current forecasts for the next 10 days.

Nice, ..but a little weird at the same time,  esp. when running errands and the car starts getting about as warm as it does during late April / May. ( Dark colored vehicle in the Desert = Never again, lol )

[greysrigging]

A very torrid dawn in the coastal suburbs of Darwin

[Tyrone]

14 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

A very torrid dawn in the coastal suburbs of Darwin

Look at that steamy dew point. 

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

On December 1st...  Currently 83F hare and around Chandler, ..and at Sky Harbor in Downtown Phoenix at 2:18PM  under mostly sunny skies..  83 Ties the daily record at Sky Harbor, not sure about here.. Another hour or so to tack on a deg. or two more in both places. ( *** Just ticked up to 84 in Downtown Chandler ..2:30PM )

Yesterday's 80+ reading at Sky Harbor breaks the record of 24 days of 80/ 80+ for November. Old record ( 24 days ) was set in 1949.

About the same for tomorrow.  ~For now~,  76-79F ( ..or a few more 80s  ) looks good for Friday -Monday.  Lowest it -Might-  cool off to,  ..is about 73 late next week.  Still seeing some rain /snow chances in the GFS model runs, but seems like many runs are backing off the more pronounced rain / snow chances, more significant potential cool down see in earlier runs.. We'll see how it all pans out later of course.

Mid -40s is about the coolest lows will reach, according to current forecasts for the next 10 days.

Nice, ..but a little weird at the same time,  esp. when running errands and the car starts getting about as warm as it does during late April / May. ( Dark colored vehicle in the Desert = Never again, lol )

 Well, we did it   ..Or at least Sky Harbor did, lol.. Not sure about closer to the house, but sure it was close. VERY warm out, even as the sun sets (81F )  Remember, it is December  1st.

 

[UK_Palms]

I have just had my driest November on record here with only 8mm of rainfall. It is usually one of my wettest months and the November average is about 70mm usually, so I only had around 11% of my monthly average this year. At other nearby official stations it is the driest November in at least 76 years, going back to when records started in 1945. 

Shoreham only had 5.8mm which is 7% of monthly average. Hurn saw 6.2mm. Eastbourne had 7.3mm. Heathrow had 10.2mm. Again November is usually one of my wettest months, if not my wettest, with 65-75mm most years. 8mm is a fraction of that. Some places only saw 5-6mm. You may get that in the spring or summer months, but certainly not in November. Then again rainfall has been getting pretty erratic at times in recent years and is often inconsistent year on year. 

There is talk that for some parts of southern England, it was the driest November going back until at least 1797, which is 224 years. Potentially the driest ever for me here. Certainly the driest since records began in my immediate area. 5-10% of the normal average around here.

 

Only April was drier this year, back when I had a paltry 1mm. Places like Eastbourne on the slightly wetter south coast had 2mm back then. April was both colder and drier than November. 

 

Some info on the driest November on record...

 

It's just turned 2am here and the temperature is only at 3C / 38F but rising. I am expecting a milder 8C /46F by sunrise and a bit of rain. When I say 'rain', what I mean is light drizzle that may only rack up a paltry 1-2mm over the course of several hours. Parts of the garden need it though, given just how dry November was. Some of my potted palms have dried out completely.

I'm hoping for a wet, gloomy, stormy December and winter in general because that means milder conditions for us here and no overnight frost. When it is dry and calm in winter it is often cold with potentially hard radiation frosts at night. I'll take the wild Atlantic weather systems over the Arctic/Scandinavian systems every day in winter. The exact opposite is true in summer though.

Edited December 3, 2021 by UK_Palms

[amh]

75F and cloudy.

Weird la nina December here and have only had brief freezes above 30F. I had already been in the teens last year by this time and twenty's on a normal year.

My pawpaws are just now changing color.

[Hutch]

Yes, it has been really mild across the USA...not much snow....i even saw Aspen Co..is struggling with snow and most has been man made...? I'm sure things will turn...and it looks like they are ...but I don't see polar vortex type sinerio's moving forward yet....! 

[Hutch]

Hey....UK Palms...thats like the same crap we felt a couple years back....hold tight it's a year or 2 thing ...weather patterns seem to stick around more than the usually progressive pattern s!

[Silas_Sancona]

Upper 50s to about 63 at 8:30PM MST around Chandler and the East valley after another pretty warm December day.. Only upper 70s though.. 80s appear to be taking a break.

Looks like the suggested shift in the pattern for the week ahead will bring some degree of rain chances back to the Desert / Snow to the Rim / Mountains ..and into New Mexico. Might spend a couple days in the 60s, before heading back to the lower 70s. Lows through the week will likely settle somewhere in the 40s, with a couple nights possibly bottoming out in the upper 30s.. No big deal kind of cold.. and looks like a progressive, back to warm weather in no time kind of pattern.

Looking further out.. some interesting things to keep tabs on as we start the new year as far as ENSO is concerned.. Could this be La Nina's Swan Song??  ( Chart from the Pacific Forecast section over on StormSurf )
Interesting that, Regardless if we've crossed into positive territory by that time, interesting that the suggested ensemble forecast for ENSO, as it looks right now, as we head into spring / Summer 2022 is quite similar to last year..  Hrmmm

[Hutch]

Interesting Silas , the monsoon was really good for you guys  ......its been pouring rain here all day and 48 degrees...fun stuff!

[Silas_Sancona]

3 hours ago, Hutch said:

Interesting Silas , the monsoon was really good for you guys  ......its been pouring rain here all day and 48 degrees...fun stuff!

Good catch, lol.. It was for sure.. Whats funny is while some were saying it was very wet ( it was no doubt.. ) Other people i've talked to expressed that while wet, the cadence of storm events thru July and August was what you'd see in a typical monsoon season here.. or, what many people haven't experienced in some time ( maybe not at all if relatively new to the area / very young.  We'll see what next year brings.  Southwest Monsoon cycle is a fickle beast and can't be counted on to follow any direction 100%  Wouldn't mind a repeat ..or even wetter.. myself though.. 

Still warm, but cooling down..  Maybe a little measurable rain here / decent snowfall for the high country by the end of the week.. and highs bottoming out in the lower 60s / lows maybe flirting w/ the mid 30s for a night or two here / in Tucson.. More typical than 86F ..in December.  Flagstaff will have a day or two w/ highs in the 30s.. Maybe a night right around 10F by Friday / over the weekend ..as it looks right now anyway.  Will be good for setting the holiday mood since mid 80s doesn't exactly say " Christmas / Holiday season "

For the cold lovers here, enjoy it while it is around.. Very doubtful we'll see very much of the chilly / wet and chilly stuff for long this winter.. ( Not that we do anyway, lol )

[sandgroper]

A warm day with a few more to come. It's been a strange year weather-wise, wetter than usual and a much cooler than usual start to the warm months but it looks like it's finally arrived