What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

13 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

For the cold lovers here, enjoy it while it is around.. Very doubtful   we'll see very much of the chilly / wet and chilly stuff for long this winter.. ( Not that we do anyway, lol )

Today's update of the CPC's  NMME suite thru March:  Pretty solid consensus on the forecast for the upcoming 3 month period ( Overall data goes out to July now.. but focus is on the season ahead.. )

** As usual, remember that " Above normal " does NOT necessarily mean any warm spell that occurs during this period will bring a prolonged stretch of 80F highs/ 40F+ lows to say Ohio or New York in January ( or in Feb. ) ..Just means chances lean toward less ..or no really abnormally cold weather,  esp. across the S. Plains/ Texas, Southeastern states, and here in AZ / N.M..  California is a toss up, esp. in Jan. and Feb. but the lean is mild/warm, esp. across S. Cal. **

Interesting that only one model out of the 7 posted leans colder in both the Jan. and Feb. outlooks

Posting only the 2mTemp. outlooks this go around:

Jan:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html

Feb:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead2.html

Mar.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead3.html

[amh]

32.8F with a dew point of 28F. Clear sky and no air movement, its gonna get cold.

[Xenon]

Looks like much of Houston might escape possible sub-40F temperatures of the season. Currently 50F at Hobby Airport and 48F at IAH. NWS forecast low has trended higher in the last few hours. We've only seen a 4 degree drop in the last 6 hours or so compared to ~10 degree drop in Austin and San Antonio. Some cloud cover looks to be the saving grace. 

[Xenon]

Low of 40F in west Houston/Katy on I-10 at sunrise.  No frost whatsoever. 

Mid 30s in the far northern/western suburbs 

38-40F north and northwest of town

41-43F for most of Houston proper 

Mid 40s close to the Bay and Galveston East End 

Upper 40s directly south of the Bay and Galveston West End 

Edited December 12, 2021 by Xenon

[Silas_Sancona]

Low/ mid 60s around town atm, on the way to about 71-73F later, after bottoming out in the 40s earlier.. Another nice day or two before the next chance of Rain / Snow..

While i'm thinking it is in " overly dramatic mood mode ", might be time to start paying closer attention to the GFS runs in the next week / 10 days.. Current 12z is pretty darn cold, esp. for the Pac. Northwest  around / after Christmas.. 

Oof!   ..if it's on to something.

               
= Get back north of that black line !  ..haha..

[amh]

25.3F this morning.

Not at all unseasonable, but for a first hard freeze, it is a bit late.

[GottmitAlex]

We bottomed out at 7C/44F at dawn. Our high was 25C/77F.

Currently 11:16pm 12/12/2021:

12C/54F

 

[UK_Palms]

Exceptionally mild conditions for mid-December here at 51N latitude. Temperatures almost hitting 15C / 59F yesterday afternoon across England. My high was 14.1C / 57F here yesterday. 

Very mild last night as well with my overnight minimum coming in at a balmy 11.2C / 53F at 6am this morning. The Isles of Scilly was the mildest spot last night at 12C / 54F, which is hardly surprising. 

And last nights minimums across Europe…

Edited December 13, 2021 by UK_Palms

[Silas_Sancona]

After a very windy night, ..and only a brief shower or two, a calm, cool ..but sunny December day setting up across the desert.  50-55F around Chandler atm ( 9:45AM )

Today may end up being the coolest day so far this winter if we fail to break 60F ( Current Forecast is 59F, both here and in Phoenix itself ) It would also be only the 5th day in 2021 temps fail to hit 60 or greater, if neither place does.  Rest of the low desert looks about the same w/ Yuma likely being the warmest spot ( 60-63 forecast there )  Cool, but not bad..

Despite the cool day, lows tonight, ..and for the next 2 or 3 nights  don't look as awful as one might think..  Lowest " low ", forecast tonight should bottom out somewhere between 35 and 38F.. Could flirt w/ freezing if current guidance trends a tad cooler thru the day, but not looking at any real freeze here. Rural spots may reach 31-33F but wouldn't be a long duration kind of event.  Tucson, normally colder than us by at least a couple deg. also isn't looking at a freeze, or anything all that bad if cooler spots down there do see some frost overnight.. Suggested low ( ...for the airport at least ) is only 35-37F .

Under clear skies the rest of the week, highs moderate back to the upper 60s by the weekend / low 70s by Monday / Tuesday before maybe some more showers/ snow chances in the mountains. Pattern for the last half of the month, overall,  is still a mess of possible solutions.. Some dry and mild / warm, some showery at times and maybe hanging with the cool crowd a little while longer.

That said, as of tomorrow, sunsets starts getting later, and about a month from now, days overall, start getting longer..  About a week or so later,  first sign of " Spring " ..here in the Desert at least... makes it's way to town with the start of the annual Tucson Gem and  Mineral Show. 

Overall event runs thru roughly the first half of Feb.   Winter is pretty much in the rear view mirror here beyond that.. just as plant sales season starts.

[ahosey01]

Way out here in the boonies, we hit 33F last night.  Expecting we’ll hit that again tonight - it’s only 8PM and it’s already dropped to 39F.  Fairly standard issue lows for mid-Dec.  I expect we’ll hit 22-24 briefly at some point this year.

[UK_Palms]

Still clinging onto very mild weather here for 51N latitude. I haven’t been below 10C / 50F now in over 100 hours, since Saturday. Yesterday reached 15.2C / 58F here after an overnight low of just 11.4C / 52F. Last night only went down to 10.3C / 50F and it is currently 12.8C / 55F at midday. Sunday and Monday night both had lows of 11.0C / 52F. Despite the cloud cover it has been bone dry still, although I am expecting things to change dramatically in the next day or two though with cold fronts moving in. Amazing temperature contrasts across short distances at sunrise this morning in places. An 11C / 20F difference across 40 miles. 

The Met Office have just updated their climate averages from the 1981-2010 averages and will now be using the 1991-2020 averages instead. There is a clear warming trend, as well as a drier springtime trend. Interestingly, November has now become the wettest month of the year statistically, despite the recent November just gone being my driest on record with just 0.2 inches of rain here. Shows the erratic nature of rainfall here. 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by UK_Palms

[Xenon]

Absolutely beautiful day in Houston, Texas 

[Collectorpalms]

Forecast, warm and warmer. CURRENTLY 80s in southeast Texas. I prefer 50s not 80s with humidity for December. GFS not hinting at any consistant cold spell through the end of the year.

December so far has been 12F above normal for the month. Record?

Edited December 16, 2021 by Collectorpalms

[ahosey01]

Hit 30.5F last night!! Brrrr…

Obviously no damage to anything in the garden.

[Xenon]

17 minutes ago, Collectorpalms said:

Forecast, warm and warmer. CURRENTLY 80s in southeast Texas. I prefer 50s not 80s with humidity for December. GFS not hinting at any consistant cold spell through the end of the year.

December so far has been 12F above normal for the month. Record?

Records breaking left and right in Houston!

Houston Hobby currently: 83F

Previous record: 82F (1971)

Galveston Scholes Field currently: 80F

Previous record: 76F (2019) 

 

And you're complaining???? This is GLORIOUS palm growing weather!! I neeeed this flamethrower spear to open up 

[Silas_Sancona]

3 hours ago, Xenon said:

Records breaking left and right in Houston!

Houston Hobby currently: 83F

Previous record: 82F (1971)

Galveston Scholes Field currently: 80F

Previous record: 76F (2019) 

 

And you're complaining???? This is GLORIOUS palm growing weather!! I neeeed this flamethrower spear to open up 

Hey, .. hey Jonathan..,  Pick up the phone ..I'm calling to request having my 80s sent back, hahaha

[SALOttawa]

Yesterday here in Constance Bay, part of Ottawa Ontario Canada, the temperature reached 14 degrees celcius or 57 degrees Fahrenheit. This morning it is 4C or 39 F. This will be our last day above freezing for at least the next two weeks.

[RyManUtah]

25F currently - with a dew point of 22. 

[Silas_Sancona]

Like yesterday morning, a touch of frost in shaded spots on the roof early this morning, though not nearly as much as yesterday ( 39 last night vs. 36 yesterday )  Already ahead of yesterday.. 51-54F around town at 11:00am.. on the way to the lower 60s later. Mid 60s to low 70s from tomorrow - Christmas week, -if the forecast stays as advertised.

Maybe another night in the upper 30s Sunday night, but then low 40s to low 50s beyond..  We'll see if it stays mild/ sunny, or the next opportunity for showers materializes sometime next week. No current forecast is trustworthy enough to put 100% faith in atm.

All in all, pretty typical this time of year. Haven't even brought in the Desert Rose yet.

[Xenon]

High of 74F today and falling as the cold front arrives. Maybe 1-2" of rain? Next few nights in the 40s (brrrrr) until the 80s return for Christmas 

[kinzyjr]

Currently 65F and letting nature's sprinklers do their magic:

[Xenon]

Managed to drop to 38-39F this morning for the only sub-40 degree reading of December. Seems like there was little to no frost, northern side of bananas look mostly fine. Houston proper of course only got into the low 40s. 

Christmas Eve and the weekend in the low-mid 80s 

Lychee flush unbothered 

[UK_Palms]

After being frost free for the past 2 weeks, I suffered a brutal radiation frost last night under clear skies all night long. I must have been the coldest location in the whole of England last night with a low of -4.7C / 24F here. Even London City Airport along the Thames dropped down to 0C / 32F. By far the coldest night of winter so far for England at least, certainly for me here.

Here are the low temps across Europe last night

Check out those lows across Germany last night! A few -10’s C readings. They are still well below 0C right now at midday. 

 

Thankfully both the GFS and ECMWF models cook us going into New Years though. No more frost again for the next 2 weeks at least now, so last nights freeze was a bit of a one-off…

 

[Palmensammler]

Last night we had heavy frost down to -8°C /  17°F.  Tonight shall be the same and then temperatures will raise up to 10°C / 50°F for the next days.

All Trachies stay unprotected. 

Eckhard 

[UK_Palms]

Nowhere near as cold last night with the low being reached at 9pm last night and then steadily rising. The temperature was at 7C / 44F at sunrise this morning. Here are the 8am temps.

Here are the lows across Europe last night. Still very cold in central and Eastern Europe…

[Jimbean]

50F this morning here in south Brevard, in between Melbourne and Palm Bay. 

[Silas_Sancona]

57-60F around the East Valley and Chandler at 9:25AM ..on the way to what will likely be the last 70 / 70+ afternoon for at least the next week or two.. ( 74-77F predicted here today )

Well advertised pattern change starts overnight as a wet storm now pushing into California and the rest of the west coast digs in off Baja, before cutting across AZ.  X-Mass Eve 2021 looks wet across 98% of the state, with areas around the Valley possibly picking up .50 -1.00" by tomorrow night. Higher elevation areas, that are below the snow line, may tack on another inch or two.. If the forecast stays on track and doesn't switch again..  Snow is all but guaranteed for the Rim, White / other Mountains to the east / northwest, and N.E. AZ.

Beyond tomorrow and Christmas Day,  a cool, and occasionally showery end to 2021 / start to 2022 looks to be what lies ahead.. For the moment, storm on it's way tonight looks to be the biggest rain producer. Another, currently forecast for the New Years Eve / Day ..or day after.. time frame might also bring some decent rain /snow..  If the forecast doesn't change ( ..never happens, lol )

Highs pull back from the 70s today, to the mid / lower 60s starting tomorrow, and continuing on thru all of next week.. A few days thrown in  where highs might stay in the 57-59F range possible as well.. 

Have seen a few "scare -cast " about " a possible, impending / intimidating -looking freeze " for AZ, While lows drop, there is nothing in any reliable forecasts suggesting any sort of potential scare -worthy freeze anywhere here ..for now..  That said, W/ the wonky pattern we're in for the moment, every forecast / model run detail is worth keeping an eye on..  Regardless, for now, lows may bottom out in the low 40s / maybe more upper 30s = standard fare for the dead of winter.. We'll see how things look as this cool spell progresses..

Where a heavy frost or freeze is more possible? California, esp. the further north and inland you go... That said, even there, it all comes down to timing. Things stay showery / cloudy < esp. overnight > less chance of seeing a frost / freeze over the next 7-12 days or so.. 

Some hints the cold pool setting up over the west < Northwest esp. > may start edging east sometime during the first 7-10 days in Jan. but want to see more obvious " hints " before i'll believe any pattern change is just beyond the start of the year.. It will flip, ..just maybe not that quickly.  More inclined to think an obvious pattern change will start sometime between the 15th- 22nd of next month..  That said,  PNA stays negative heading into the fist half of Jan. = the longer it will take for the cold over the west to really head east.. 


Of note, the coming year could be interesting in terms of ENSO..  La Nina has peaked out and is on the fade..  Active MJO pattern, playing it's part in putting the west on ice for now, has been strong enough that it could reshape the " la Nina " pattern in the East Pacific over the coming months.. More specifically,  El Nino may  be on the horizon. .. At the very least, ENSO pattern could be in the + 0.00 " Neutral " territory by the July- September time frame.. If we start seeing Kelvin Wave activity pick up ( Westerly Wind Burst generated Kelvin Waves help transport warm water east from the West Pacific ) That's a big step in that direction..  LOTS of very warm water building under the ocean surface in the West Pacific as well atm..   Sub surface " cool pool " in the E. Pac. is dwindling as it discharges to the surface and is dispersed..  We'll see if that warm pool starts to head east and build in size / depth as we head toward and into spring '22.



 

[UK_Palms]

It's looking incredibly mild for the UK and the western half of Europe next week and into the New Year. I wouldn't be shocked if quite a few temperature records are broken, both daytime highs and overnight lows. There has been a lot of talk about severe cold potential in recent weeks, which was supposed to hit around Christmas/New year, but it seems the subtropical air masses have won the battle now. Both ECMWF and GFS in strong agreement. I couldn't ask for a better setup going into the New Year!

 

 

Wednesday 29th - Friday 31st seems to be the particularly mild period, when some records could be broken. Here are the forecasted highs for Wednesday, showing widespread 16C readings in eastern England. Temperatures of 17-18C may be possible on Thursday 30th, which is supposed to be a bit warmer than the day I have posted below. 

 

The London nights are looking exceptionally mild for late December / early January at 51N. This is at the same latitude as Saskatoon, Canada. The current December nighttime maxima stands at 13.7C for England, while a low of just 12C is forecast for London on Wednesday night, so somewhere in England may break the record high low/minima for December next week.

If so, it will be somewhat bizarre for December records to be broken right at the end of the month as well, which in theory should be the coldest part of December as we head into January, the coldest month. Yet London's CIDP's will probably be kicking back into growth again, halfway through winter. I may actually have to uncover/unwrap some bananas and exotics.

 

I wonder whether the forecasted warmth in Europe is linked to the extreme cold in the PNW somehow? Like how "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction" and so forth...

Edited December 24, 2021 by UK_Palms

[Xenon]

80F winds from the south. Could not ask for a better Christmas Eve! 

Is this Hawaii???? GFS isn't hinting at any real cold through Jan 9th.

 

[sandgroper]

Merry Christmas one and all, I hope everyone has a fantastic Christmas Day and a great New Year. It's a warm Christmas Day here in our part of Western Australia with a few more warm ones ahead. I'll be heading down the beach to enjoy Christmas with family.

[Hutch]

Dang.....send some of that this way....looks toasty for Christmas...39 here with showers ..suppose to get snow tomarrow night ..right on Q...

[sandgroper]

36 minutes ago, Hutch said:

Dang.....send some of that this way....looks toasty for Christmas...39 here with showers ..suppose to get snow tomarrow night ..right on Q...

Happy to do you a straight swap mate!

Edited December 24, 2021 by sandgroper

[Silas_Sancona]

After a wet and gray day, clouds are breaking as the last showers  hang over the mountains to the north and east of town. While cool, 59F isn't bad.  For now, Christmas Day / Sunday look average: low / mid 60s, Lows in the lower 50s tomorrow, upper 40s Sunday.

Temps for next week look to be coldest Monday- Wednesday ( mid to upper 50s ) w/ Tuesday looking like the coolest day. Despite that, lows stay in the seasonable/ reasonable low/ mid 40s ..maybe upper 30s in the less developed parts of the area / on a few nights area -wide around New Years Day.   NO sub- 35F ..or lower lows are predicted for the area at this time.    60s  should return by Thursday into next weekend, if the current forecast stays relatively un-changed thru the week..

Next couple storms scheduled to pass thru before new year's don't look near as wet as this one. Will be colder than today's storm, and could bring a little better snowfall to the mountains.

Beyond next weekend.. We'll see what happens..  

Rainfall today turned out to follow predicted totals closely.. 1.10" here so far.. Might add a little more as one last band of showers rolls through. Not bad.

 

[Hutch]

I here ya...Im actually excited myself ...i have learned through the years plants are tougher than humans..let is snow!!!

[bubba]

64°F at 6:22 AM EST to a high of 81° F. Jesus Christ is born and Merry Christmas to all!

[Palmaceae]

9 hours ago, bubba said:

64°F at 6:22 AM EST to a high of 81° F. Jesus Christ is born and Merry Christmas to all!

Amen!

 

68F at 4 EST in the Smokies, not really Christmas weather!

[Xenon]

Beautiful 79F, Merry Christmas! 

[bubba]

64°F low heading to a high of 81°F. Low humidity and a truly beautiful time of the year in So FL.

[Silas_Sancona]

A muggy, damp, and cloudy 54F at 11:18 local time..  If lucky, we'll break 60F later.. More than likely, today will be the first of  a several day stretch in the 50s.  Rain changes come and go thru the week w/  the biggest potential event projected to roll through on New year's Eve..   ** After a chilly New Year's weekend, Temperatures may find their way back to the low 60s to start the first week of 2022. On the other hand, we'll see, lol.. 

What was looking like some degree of moderation in the overall Wx pattern around the same time, may take it's time and hang around a bit longer.  Essentially, things are stuck the current phase ( Phs #7 ) of the MJO ( Madden Julian Oscillation ) and, ...like getting a stubborn Mule to do  -anything-...  it may take a little time ( ...and convincing ) to get things really moving again. 

If this is the case,  ..essentially, what you see, is what you get ..though there should be some slight moderation  as we get past the first 6-8 days of January.  Pattern will break,  ...just when / to what degree is the bigger question ftm.



** Note for the upcoming weekend here in the Desert,  After the predicted storm for the 31st ( if it doesn't linger into / beyond the 1st. ) all current forecasts are suggesting lows ( Mornings of Jan 2nd / 3rd ) to bottom out in the lower 30s.. with a good possibility of seeing back to back opportunities for hitting 33-32F in town.  While pretty typical, the added moisture in the air from recent rain on both mornings could mean more frost potential than what might be experienced if everything were dry / humidity and dew points low at the same time..

Skies are forecast to be clear on both nights as well so any heat ( if you want to call only reaching the lower / mid 50s " warmth " ) will radiate away pretty quickly after sundown.. For now, looks like a couple typical cold winter mornings for the area.. Nothing to be too concerned about.  Don't think it will,  but keep an eye on the forecasts through the week  just in case there are any changes ( ..that might drag potential lows any lower )..

Outlaying / rural spots will likely run a couple of deg. cooler, ..as usual.  Right now, Wx Underground and the NWS office in Tucson is calling for lows down there in the 28-31F range for both nights. Cold, but pretty typical  for the dead of  " winter " here, ..and there.

As things look now, Lows for everyone warm back to the low/ mid 40s after next Monday morning..

[GottmitAlex]

2:45am PST.   28 of December 2021:

11C/52F

Its raining cats and dogs.