What is your current yard temperature?

[Silas_Sancona]

89F at 10:38, on the way to somewhere in the mid/ upper 90s ( 96 forecast, but could end up a deg or 2 warmer / deg. cooler.


In other news,  ..Today's 12z GFS  " Fantasy Cast "  ..Day #2

..." Bleepin' " heat is still there, If not spread around a bit more plus this interesting spin ..Pun intended, ..Kind of, lol..



Model run sheers off an upper level disturbance that tries to pass over S. Cal / Northern AZ,  then shoving it S.W. of AZ, off the Pacific side of roughly northern Baja / San Diego, ..before moving it back north over coastal California ( Clock-wise around the strengthening Sub. Trop. High settling in over the Southwest.. )  Saw a similar scenario showing up in runs yesterday, but this is more pronounced ( Deeper potential low pressure area / stronger High pressure center over central AZ / N.M.  )



If anything actually occurs, New Mexico may kick off the " opening act " to Monsoon Season ( Rains usually start there first, then work their way west as the 4 corners High strengthens overhead / to the north of AZ / N.M.  and starts pulling more moisture north and west out of Mexico thru June )

Suggested total precip forecast: 



Suggested 700-300hPa Humidity and wind forecast. Can see the Upper Level Low spinnin' off Baja pretty clearly:



While this scenario is likely over done,  ..if not complete gaah' bage..  Far out anyway..  watching it since these kind of UPLL set ups can bring dry thunderstorm activity both to the AZ and N.M. ( Higher terrain / Mountains esp. ), but also to California.. via drawing moisture north and west from Mexico ..at just the right angle. 

Considering how dry things are across the region, & the suggested, accompanying widespread heat, ..Well, you know the hazards..  Not a " freak out forecast "  ..Just something interesting to eyeball,  ...until it more than likely disappears from future model runs. 

[sandgroper]

A beautiful, bright and sunny 23c today in Perth, perfect weather after a very wet week. Looking for a sunny 24c tomorrow.

[Tyrone]

We’ve had clear days with blue skies but cold nights. Went down to 1.5C this morning and got up to 18C then the rain came back so tonight is actually quite warm for almost winter. It’s 10C and raining around 10pm. It’s the time of year when I want cloud and a bit of a breeze at night to keep icicles from forming. 

[sandgroper]

Currently 13c but bright and sunny, heading for a cool top of 18c, perfect weather for working out in the yard.

[Tyrone]

It blew hard down here overnight and until about 2pm. Really cold winds. I think we made 15C. Cloudy and rainy but the clouds seal in the heat at night. 

[Silas_Sancona]

A hot ..but decently nice 92F at 1:15PM on Memorial day eve.. " Get out and go for a walk " pleasant 68 or 9 tonight, and 95-ish tomorrow, before another warm up sets it as we kick off June..

Not looking any hotter that it has already been yet, though lows may start rising into the mid / upper 70s by next weekend.  

Some meager hints moisture might try to sneak across the AZ / Mexico / New Mexico border in far southeastern AZ next weekend, but, chances of that occurring hover around 20% atm.  Any storms that could occur out that way are sure to be dry, which could mean fire starts.  Meaningful moisture - anywhere - in the state is at least 17-20 days out from next weekend  ..On the optimistic end of the scale.

On another note,  ...Today's 12z GFS " Fantasy - cast "   No, not the suggested 113F reading for here.. That's about right  for mid - June. Look west.




500MB heights



..We often hear of " wish / fantasy hurricane forecasts " being depicted by highly intoxicated  model runs during the summer, ..but, how 'bout " Fantasy Nuke Fest- casts? ..For those of us lucky enough to live " in the Oven " of the country?   Regardless,  Hints are there for the arrival of some  110- 110+ heat soon,  It is June. 

..but, this,.. really?



Still though..

[sandgroper]

Very cold this morning down to 5c 2 days out from the first day of winter.  Heading for 19c today, it's sunny at the moment but they say there'll be a bit of cloud around later.

[Tyrone]

6 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Very cold this morning down to 5c 2 days out from the first day of winter.  Heading for 19c today, it's sunny at the moment but they say there'll be a bit of cloud around later.

Thankfully there's quite a bit of cloud coming over our part of the world for the next few days, so you should be quite a bit warmer tonight. The coldest Ive been so far was 1.5C the other morning but last night we were back up to 11 and 12C roughly all night due to heavy cloud. Its the clear windless nights that freak me out this time of year. Thankfully I don't think this year is going to get a lot of that. If the winter rains delay and the air becomes clear and dry then that's a worry. I remember that in a bad year up in Perth that could happen from about now until the 3rd week in June before the cold fronts finally kicked in and kept minimums up a bit. I think this winter may be OK. Our cold fronts and rain have already begun. 

[palmsOrl]

The rain is finally here.  Though we have picked up some throughout May, it hasn't exactly been a wet month here.  72F with rain here currently.

-Michael

[Samuel]

It’s the 31st of may and it’s 15c in north London plus it’s been raining on and off since yesterday no sign of our supposed summer med climate arriving anytime soon :D

[Tyrone]

First day of winter and this morning the clouds suddenly cleared away (blankets are off) and it dropped to 2.6C just before sun up. Rain returns this evening.

[sandgroper]

Clear and sunny in Perth at the moment for the first day of winter heading for 20c but it was a cold morning, 6c is not nice to climb out of bed to.

[tim_brissy_13]

Absolutely freezing in Melbourne lately. Struggling to get above 10C/50F today, and there’s more of the same on the way in the next week. I sometimes really wonder how some palms from tropical origins survive here at all. 

[GottmitAlex]

June 1st, 2022, 10:57 PM PST 

15C

 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

102F at 3PM ..Maybe tack on a deg. or 2 by 5.. 


Some current readings around Chandler Proper and the East Valley:






Forecast for tomorrow and the weekend stays in the cruising lane w/ maybe some passing high clouds,  before facing down the Gauntlet next weekend.. Dew Points may attempt to creep up into the 40s at times next week as well.




Afternoon screenshot across the southwest.. Still an outside chance some moisture may sneak into far E. / S.E. AZ from New Mexico before the weekend closes out. Regardless, some signs moisture may not stay away for long.  Mexico is looking good atm as well. ** Image Credit: College of Dupage NEXLAB ** 




 ..After some unusual - but not un-herd of - June showers for parts of the state this weekend, could be quite the roaster of a heatwave settling in over California..






Here, as the saying goes..



More positive signs on the horizon??



..More on that  later..  Getting close..

[sandgroper]

A bright and sunny day heading for a top of 19c, lovely weather.

[Tyrone]

Nothing but thick clouds down here. A minimum of 10.6C and a max of 15.5C. 

[Ryland]

It’s 19.8°C (68°F) here right now and rising. It may reach 21-22 this afternoon. Despite being this far north the strong sun makes it feel very warm, I wouldn’t have our summers any warmer actually. All the palms are loving it and growing well. Actually, with the exception of a very stubborn CIDP which can’t even keep up with my Brahea armata for growth!

[Silas_Sancona]

A mild 82Fat 11:35PM..  100-103 and passing high clouds for the weekend, then,  ..off to the races.  Maybe a taste of what lies beyond the heat  mid/ late next week.. as the sizzle ..and 80 / 80+ overnight lows settle in.

[UK_Palms]

On 5/31/2022 at 5:22 PM, Samuel said:

It’s the 31st of may and it’s 15c in north London plus it’s been raining on and off since yesterday no sign of our supposed summer med climate arriving anytime soon

Many true Med regions had rain and 15-16C highs on the 31st. We've actually been running above average for some months now, so it had to drop below average at some point. A week or two of below average temps and a bit of rain is nothing out of the ordinary. We need it given that some parts of southeastern England are still only on 3-4 inches of rainfall for the entire year so far. 

Anyway, I maxed out at 24C / 75F here on Friday. A decent early summer's day, given that we will be running below average for the next week or so now. It's a bit of a mixed bag, but can't complain too much. Things will pick up again later next week. 

 

 

 

It's definitely looking on the cool side with thunderstorms over the next week or so, but again it's only the first week of summer. A mixed bag, but we can't really complain given the dry, warmish weather that we have had in recent months...

 

This current La Nina is entering record breaking territory now for the time of year...

 

SST's are off the scale around Europe, which can only really lead to warmer than average conditions this summer... at least you would think...

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Samuel]

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Many true Med regions had rain and 15-16C highs on the 31st. We've actually been running above average for some months now, so it had to drop below average at some point. A week or two of below average temps and a bit of rain is nothing out of the ordinary. We need it given that some parts of southeastern England are still only on 3-4 inches of rainfall for the entire year so far. 

Anyway, I maxed out at 24C / 75F here on Friday. A decent early summer's day, given that we will be running below average for the next week or so now. It's a bit of a mixed bag, but can't complain too much. Things will pick up again later next week. 

 

 

 

It's definitely looking on the cool side with thunderstorms over the next week or so, but again it's only the first week of summer. A mixed bag, but we can't really complain given the dry, warmish weather that we have had in recent months...

 

This current La Nina is entering record breaking territory now for the time of year...

 

SST's are off the scale around Europe, which can only really lead to warmer than average conditions this summer... at least you would think...

 

The warm waters around the uk can be a blessing or a curse they can either enhance warmer temperatures and decrease modification from hot air that comes up from Africa or a more likely scenario for us in the uk will be to increase rain and cloud cover. June is already is looking like another summer month not to achieve 200 hours of sunshine for us in the London area pretty tragic given We have the longest daylight hours you have to go back to 2018 for a sunny June 

Edited June 4, 2022 by Samuel

[Silas_Sancona]

94F ..on the way to:  ..Hot    ..But not too hot..  yet.

Saturday Morning " Fantasy Forecast " edition:  Rip roaring start of Monsoon '22 ??

I'm all for starting off this year's Monsoon Season with a Nuclear -sized bang, but... To  say this morning's 12Z GFS run is likely  very  exaggerated, is putting it mildly..  Rare that we see any measurable precip. in June, let alone approaching .50" ( ..or more, as it shows on the Total Precip. Map )  Last year, we had about .02" - .05" around the 22nd,  and that flirted w/ a record, if not matched a few ..if  my memory is correct..  ( Guess i'll have to check again, haha )  This particular scenario would destroy records.. 




While we can have some humid/ hot days leading up to the first wetting rains, 3 days w/ dew points over 60 / Humidity approaching 75% at times ..right out of the gate might be a bit of an exaggeration, up this way especially. 






PWats approaching 6 standard deviations from normal would be pretty crazy as well..



Regardless, something is showing up in the models for the middle / end of next week,  then again around the 17th-20th that might bring moisture into the area from Mexico, ..and maybe some  " Dry " Thunderstorm activity to the mountains / Rim / S.E AZ  but,  ..Guess we'll see what happens..  Wouldn't mind this scenario at all though

[SailorBold]

Warming up to consistent summer temps here in the high desert.. very warm May with 2 weeks in the 90s already.. despite all those strange cold fronts one right after the other.

Nice evening here 78 just after 10p.

[sandgroper]

Starting to get very chilly here in Oz.

[greysrigging]

Record heat levels in Darwin as well as thunderstorms and rain in the first 5 days of June. A dry season month so highly unusual !

Plenty of storms out there including the named storms we have, Hector The Convector over on the Tiwi Islands to our north, and the Labelle Cell to our southwest.


The labelle Cell firing up yesterday

A tough nights sleep last night....

Hopefully back to normal late next week.

[Samuel]

It’s the 5th of June and it’s 14c here in London cloudy and windy it’s more like Iceland the God knows when summer will return here looks like we will struggle to even reach 20c in the next week the wait for our summer med climate goes on

[Tyrone]

1 hour ago, Samuel said:

It’s the 5th of June and it’s 14c here in London cloudy and windy it’s more like Iceland the God knows when summer will return here looks like we will struggle to even reach 20c in the next week the wait for our summer med climate goes on

That’s roughly what the weather is like here except for the 22C on Tuesday. It got to 15C here today with repetitive rain showers all day. 

[GottmitAlex]

June 5th, 2022

3:12PM pst,

32C/90F

[Collectorpalms]

It’s only starting to get miserably hot. Today our city has the highest forecast heat index of 107F, in southeast Texas. Most palms will love it, but not much else…

Laredo, Tx is usually the worst in Texas. Their forecast is 111F/44C heat index today.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Collectorpalms

[UK_Palms]

@Samuel @Tyrone After months of dry conditions and above average temperatures, it has been a cold start to June and summer. I reached 24C on Friday and 22C on Saturday, but yesterday was cool and wet with some parts of the country (East Anglia) seeing their coldest June day in 37 years!

When the west coast of Scotland is the warmest part of the UK, you know it is a bad day for the wider UK! 

Temperatures were 7C (15F) below average in parts of central England and 5C (10F) below average for me here yesterday. Oh well, you win some and you lose some.

 

The first week of summer doesn’t make a season, Samuel. Looking at the forecast we may not see any more rain for sometime with temperatures back into the low 20’s C tomorrow. Close to average for the time of year and not too bad for early summer I suppose. I’m not really complaining. Let’s see if July & August delivers for us. I think it will be hot and dry this year.

Edited June 6, 2022 by UK_Palms

[amh]

102F, but it only feels like 110F.

[sandgroper]

51 minutes ago, amh said:

102F, but it only feels like 110F.

[Silas_Sancona]

1 hour ago, amh said:

102F, but it only feels like 110F.

Hey, lol ..I can always throw the 114-117F forecast for Saturday in a box and ship it your way - express-  if you like..

[amh]

16 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Hey, lol ..I can always throw the 114-117F forecast for Saturday in a box and ship it your way - express-  if you like..

,But its a dry heat.

[Silas_Sancona]

3 minutes ago, amh said:

,But its a dry heat.

 Just means everything fries everything faster..  Dew point could be in the 40's on Saturday too.  Fun, haha

[amh]

1 minute ago, Silas_Sancona said:

 Just means everything fries everything faster..  Dew point could be in the 40's on Saturday too.  Fun, haha

Dew points in the low 60s, but about 10'' short on rain so far this year.

I'm going to have to decide what dies and what survives soon.

[Silas_Sancona]

20 minutes ago, amh said:

Dew points in the low 60s, but about 10'' short on rain so far this year.

I'm going to have to decide what dies and what survives soon.

Weird.. Looked like a good %' age  of Texas saw rain at some point last week..  Would welcome a full summer of 60deg dew points here..  Helps keep the " Bleepin " - level heat in check.

[amh]

3 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Weird.. Looked like a good %' age  of Texas saw rain at some point last week..  Would welcome a full summer of 60deg dew points here..  Helps keep the " Bleepin " - level heat in check.

The last 10 storm events completely missed me. I dont think temperatures will below 100 anytime soon and there is no rain on the horizon. Hoping for a category 3 or better to hit the southern coast.

[sandgroper]

Currently 18c heading for a sunny top of 21c. Wet weather comes in tomorrow and should stick around for the next seven days with tops between 20c and 23c according to BOM.

[sandgroper]

I've a feeling we may get wet tomorrow.