What is your current yard temperature?

[D. Morrowii]

Central East Florida 6/23/22 4:30 pm 
 

[GottmitAlex]

[Ryland]

15 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

@Ryland It looks like you guys are the warmest spot today with 28-29C this afternoon near Manchester. It has been cooler here today with a max of only 25.8C / 78F for me here. Northern England is warmer than southern England for a change. Enjoy it!

Ha I didn't realise we were the warmest part of the country yesterday, that's unusual!  Especially in summer.  It reached 27.9ºC (82ºF) in my garden, making yesterday the hottest day of the year so far.

It's currently 17.5ºC (63.5ºF) which is very pleasant for enjoying the garden before work.  Last night's low of 16.8ºC (62ºF) made for a warm house though, a bit too much so for sleeping anyway.

I've been very pleased with the weather this year so far, it's been mild with no months below average, a little dry but not too much, and the coldest temperature seen in 2022 so far was -0.9ºC.  Accordingly everything in the garden is very happy and growing well.

[sandgroper]

16 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

I doubt you have anywhere near as many fires as we have had this early on, which would be the equivalent of December for you. 

@Ryland

Just so you know, December the first is the first day of summer here, fires are far from uncommon in December.

 

Back to the topic of the thread, we had a pleasant sunny day with a top around 19c, it will be a cold night but the weekend should be much the same with an expected sunny top of 23c for Sunday.

[RyManUtah]

Weather is just about perfect. Though some real heat to bring in some rain would be nice, the lack of any back to back 110 ms has been great for my tomatoes, strawberries and cucumbers lol. 

 

[Tyrone]

It got to a sunny 18.1C day today. I actually took my jumper off doing weeding. The moment a cloud came over the sun, brrrrrrrr. 

We are soon to enter the coldest time of year, the first two weeks of July. I see some low dewpoints around July 2 to at least July 4 heading all the way to just south of Darwin then. It will reach almost to the coast around Geraldton in WA and take up about 2/3 of the continent in the interior. Going to be chilly then. 

[sandgroper]

Was a beautiful day today, a warm and sunny 23c. It was a bit cool in the water for me but a fantastic morning at our local beach, I got there just after sunrise. We're expecting rain tomorrow but the weather fines up after that with sunny temps between 19c - 21c. Although the weather is very pleasant we need it to rain again soon as these winter months are our wettest months, our fans need it and our farmers need the follow up rain.

Edited June 26, 2022 by sandgroper

[Tyrone]

We had a chilly 3.9C here this morning followed by a cloudless beautiful 20.7C Max day. 

[Silas_Sancona]

96F  w/ a Dew Point at 56deg / Humidity 27% at 11:30AM  as we wait to see what the afternoon brings..


Combination of remnant Mesoscale Convective Vortex ( MCV ) over far S.E. AZ, Passing Easterly Wave activity across Sonora ( General movement is east to west ),  moisture surge up the GOC ( Gulf Of CA / Sea Of Cortez ) from Tropical Storm Celia ..heading out into the Pacific just west of Baja Sur now, lingering trough of low pressure over part of AZ, and PLENTY of moisture being drawn west from N.M. could lead to a very stormy evening for a good portion of AZ  ( ..and N.M. ) Activity is already getting going up in the High country. <-- = this is exactly what you want to see occurring now  for an active / stormy night in the low deserts later.



Biggest challenge today is if lingering clouds / light showers over S.E. AZ hinders activity there later.. Personally don't think it will, at least in Tucson.. But we'll have to wait and see..

Unlike Friday, last night was quite across 98% of the greater Phoenix area w/ bigger storms occurring over the " No Man's Land " deserts between Phoenix, Yuma, and Quartzite.  All we had here was a very strong outflow boundary move through.. complete w/ damaging winds - under pretty much clear skies. Because it came from the north and northeast, there was very little dust kicked up.


Some recent stats regarding recent rainfall both here and in Western N.M. 

While it's impossible to say " how much " rain may be added tonight to Sky Harbor's gauge, even a modest .20" - .40" downpour tonight, or between now and the 30th would push the June rainfall total very close to.. or into " top tier " territory..  Sky Harbor barely missed out on a higher rainfall total from Friday's storms which dumped close to half an inch not far from the Airport in Downtown PHX..



Current Monsoon season 22 winner?  ..for the time being at least?   New Mexico.. Absolutely incredible rainfall total %'ages for   ~ JUNE! ~  Tucson is lagging a bit atm compared to Phoenix ( pretty rare ) but i think they'll catch up in a big way soon.



And, while JUST ONE model run's thoughts ( current 12Z GFS ).. things are looking up as we head uphill, into what is considered the wetter part of the season. While just ONE model run,  many of the Wx. model runs over the past 5 days across both Pivotal and Wx Underground have looked pretty good going into July..  Some more activity possible for S. Cal in the offing being hinted at at times as well.. UT and E. NV start adding / continue adding more points on the board also. 

 Thru the 30th:



Thru July 12th:



As usual, We'll see  what  actually  happens..  For the moment at least,  the road to a decent ..or wet.. summer is lookin' pretty good..


 

[Xenon]

Still not a drop of rain all June....but relief is coming!!! "COLD FRONT" arrives tonight

[RyManUtah]

[GottmitAlex]

42 minutes ago, RyManUtah said:

No way!!!!!

Here I thought commiefornia was extreme. You guys take the medal. 

Gulp

[Tyrone]

On 6/24/2022 at 5:15 PM, sandgroper said:

Just so you know, December the first is the first day of summer here, fires are far from uncommon in December.

 

Back to the topic of the thread, we had a pleasant sunny day with a top around 19c, it will be a cold night but the weekend should be much the same with an expected sunny top of 23c for Sunday.

Fire season starts on Oct 1 in WA. 

It looks like we are going to have a sunny 19C today before a small cold front comes through. Then we’ve got a high moving in afterwards which has me concerned. No rain forecast for a bit with clear skies in early July. The first two weeks in July are statistically the coldest. I’m not going to mention the five letter F word. 

[RyManUtah]

2 hours ago, GottmitAlex said:

Here I thought commiefornia was extreme. You guys take the medal. 

Bronze medal. California has a record high of 137F - Utah’s in 118F.  Alas, same desert: 

 

[amh]

7 hours ago, Xenon said:

Still not a drop of rain all June....but relief is coming!!! "COLD FRONT" arrives tonight

I like the projected rainfall, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Anyhow any temperatures below 100F will be nice. 

[Xenon]

4 PM and it's happening!!! R-A-I-N. Temperature plummeted from near 102F to 75F. Unbelievable!

Edited June 27, 2022 by Xenon

[GottmitAlex]

[sandgroper]

Currently at 8.00am a very chilly 7c heading for a cool top of 18c. It's all a bit cool but I still like it better than 40c.

[JohnAndSancho]

On 6/27/2022 at 3:54 PM, Xenon said:

4 PM and it's happening!!! R-A-I-N. Temperature plummeted from near 102F to 75F. Unbelievable!

How am I on that radar(Huntsville is right where I45 bends to the west) and we got absofreakinglutely nothing? Just north and just south and NOTHING here. 

Literally more precipitation from my head than the sky. 

[RyManUtah]

Dry 

[Xenon]

29 minutes ago, JohnAndSancho said:

How am I on that radar(Huntsville is right where I45 bends to the west) and we got absofreakinglutely nothing? Just north and just south and NOTHING here. 

Literally more precipitation from my head than the sky. 

Bummer! I'm in Bryan for the week and haven't seen a drop either. The yard near Katy got .33"

[JohnAndSancho]

1 minute ago, Xenon said:

Bummer! I'm in Bryan for the week and haven't seen a drop either. The yard near Katy got .33"

Anything cool at the big box stores over there? Nothing but Majesties in Prison City   

[Xenon]

1 hour ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Anything cool at the big box stores over there? Nothing but Majesties in Prison City   

Just majesty, pygmy, and cat palm 

[Tyrone]

I’m worried tonight. 10pm and below 6C and falling. No clouds either

[GottmitAlex]

[sandgroper]

Currently 9c at 5.30am heading for a sunny top of 19c. We're having cold mornings but pleasant days.

Edited June 29, 2022 by sandgroper

[greysrigging]

Not often you see radar and forcasts like this in Darwin at this time of the year. I picked up 9mm rain late yesterday afternoon and the max temp of 25.3c was the 5th coldest June day since records began in 1941.

[Tyrone]

The forecast was for a minimum of 12C. The actual min was 2.6C. It’s now around 6C after some clouds came back. The next few mornings may be an issue with probably Monday morning the worst. Dewpoints predicted to be around 0C. 

[GottmitAlex]

2 hours ago, Tyrone said:

The forecast was for a minimum of 12C. The actual min was 2.6C. It’s now around 6C after some clouds came back. The next few mornings may be an issue with probably Monday morning the worst. Dewpoints predicted to be around 0C. 

Whoah!  

[GottmitAlex]

[Tyrone]

Well the BOM balls it up again. My forecast min was 8C, and so far the min has been 0.6C. I woke up at 6.30am to 0.7C and no clouds. Nowhere in around 100kms is anywhere near 8C. Everything is about 2-4C even right on the coast. Gnowangerup about 120kms inland is -2C. Cranbrook about 90km inland is 0C. Collie was tipped to be the coldest at 2C and dropped to -1C. That was a more accurate forecast but the models have almost no accuracy down here because they really don’t collect enough data down here to force the models along. 

[Tyrone]

Finally bottomed out at 0.1C just before sun up. Only exposed grass was crunchy. Any grass near trees was not icy and anything under canopy was fine. 

I think we may be bombed with some horror frost in the next few days. No clouds or rain until mid Tuesday as we sit under an evil high pressure system. The entire weather pattern has dried up which is incredibly unusual for here at this time of year. 

[sandgroper]

10 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Finally bottomed out at 0.1C just before sun up. Only exposed grass was crunchy. Any grass near trees was not icy and anything under canopy was fine. 

I think we may be bombed with some horror frost in the next few days. No clouds or rain until mid Tuesday as we sit under an evil high pressure system. The entire weather pattern has dried up which is incredibly unusual for here at this time of year. 

Bloody hell mate, hope you have a warmer night tonight. It's been cold here in the morning too but the days have been nice.

[Tyrone]

It’s 8.4C at 6.30pm. At sundown at 5.07pm it was already 10C. It got to 17.7C but the air had no moisture in it. 

So Thursday morning the forecast was 12C. We got down 2.6C. This morning the forecast was 8C, and we got 0.1C. Tomorrow morning is forecast to be 6C. Only a miracle will keep us above zero. 

I have frost fans setup in places, and later I’m going to light a fire in one area. 

[Tyrone]

Frost fans in place, ready to fire up around 4C.

[UK_Palms]

Temperatures have been well below average in recent days here. A really poor spell for late June, with the last two days only reaching 20C and 18C respectively for me. I even had a night go down to a chilly 9C / 48F! Today is going to max out at about 21C, but our temperatures here have been running 3-4C below average for most of this week. They should be reaching about 23C / 74F in late June / early July. 

At least we had some rain as well finally, although it is nowhere near enough to offset the drought deficit/conditions. It has extinguished the fires at Frensham, Petersfield & Moray though at least, but June still only finished on 0.63 inches here. It’s fairly clear and sunny today, so you wouldn’t even know it had rained given the ongoing drought conditions. My garden is still dry as a bone.

The American GFS model is really turning up the thermostat as we go into July. Some crazy runs appearing with 40C+…

BBC looking more modest, but they get their data from ECMWF I believe…

 

Summer hasn’t even got out of neutral yet here in southern England. July will be hot and dry and possibly August too if the warm-summer Med pattern remains entrenched. Either way I am expecting a very dry July to come now looking at the models, which will further exacerbate the drought issue. River levels are already dangerously low here. The peak of the heat won’t be until late July - early August, so potentially a month plus away still. 

[Silas_Sancona]

102F w/ a 57deg Dew pt. / 22% humidity w/ some clouds in view to the east..




Looking rather tame for the upcoming weekend / 4th  as yet another annoying trough of low pressure sets up over the Pac. NW for the start of the week, shunting most ..or all moisture out of most of AZ.. How long moisture and rain chances stay away will depend on how long this " Buzz killington "- esque trough .and the dry, southwesterly winds it brings over the state decides to hang around.. Hopefully it gets booted from the party quickly ( and stays away afterward, lol ).  Same trough will keep temperatures in - check thru most of the the week, so i guess that's one positive..

That said, some signs starting to appear one heck of a " July Roast " may be lurking for - at least - the Central Plains..  and possibly the west / California..  While days out ( ...and much will change, ...And change again ) Watching this closely since where the " potential " heat dome sets up will influence what happens w/ monsoonal moisture south and west of the High..



Further north / northwest? = favorable for good rain chances ( ..The classic " Great Basin high / Mountains to Valley storm set up " )  Further south, say parking itself over AZ?.. Think " Taste of 2020 ".

Regardless, this possible set up has the potential to exceed some lofty goals.. 600dm is about as strong as an area of High Pressure can get.. Even hints of exceeding 600dm ( 601-604dm are being thrown around by some model runs / weather peeps right now ) is a bit eye opening this far out.. Last year's crazy heat in British Columbia was " seen in the forecast future " as far as 200/ 200+ hours before it occurred.. so, while not something to be overly concerned w -yet -  it is definitely something to watch next week..








Other longer term forecasts for July are playing the " signal unclear / shifty signals " game atm in regards to what the month looks like for rain here, so,  ..Can't really do much about it, but,  it is still too early to not remain optimistic.. While the season last year also started early,  widespread, soaking rains, at least here in the Valley and down in Tucson,  didn't really ramp up until later in the month and into August.. 

This week's CPC 3-4 week outlook thoughts



CPC's Monthly thoughts on July as a whole..



Who has the right idea?

  ..We'll see where things stand after the 20th. 

At least the Gulf Of California is looking good.. 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[Silas_Sancona]

18 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

102F w/ a 57deg Dew pt. / 22% humidity w/ some clouds in view to the east..




Looking rather tame for the upcoming weekend / 4th  as yet another annoying trough of low pressure sets up over the Pac. NW for the start of the week, shunting most ..or all moisture out of most of AZ.. How long moisture and rain chances stay away will depend on how long this " Buzz killington "- esque trough .and the dry, southwesterly winds it brings over the state decides to hang around.. Hopefully it gets booted from the party quickly ( and stays away afterward, lol ).  Same trough will keep temperatures in - check thru most of the the week, so i guess that's one positive..

That said, some signs starting to appear one heck of a " July Roast " may be lurking for - at least - the Central Plains..  and possibly the west / California..  While days out ( ...and much will change, ...And change again ) Watching this closely since where the " potential " heat dome sets up will influence what happens w/ monsoonal moisture south and west of the High..



Further north / northwest? = favorable for good rain chances ( ..The classic " Great Basin high / Mountains to Valley storm set up " )  Further south, say parking itself over AZ?.. Think " Taste of 2020 ".

Regardless, this possible set up has the potential to exceed some lofty goals.. 600dm is about as strong as an area of High Pressure can get.. Even hints of exceeding 600dm ( 601-604dm are being thrown around by some model runs / weather peeps right now ) is a bit eye opening this far out.. Last year's crazy heat in British Columbia was " seen in the forecast future " as far as 200/ 200+ hours before it occurred.. so, while not something to be overly concerned w -yet -  it is definitely something to watch next week..








Other longer term forecasts for July are playing the " signal unclear / shifty signals " game atm in regards to what the month looks like for rain here, so,  ..Can't really do much about it, but,  it is still too early to not remain optimistic.. While the season last year also started early,  widespread, soaking rains, at least here in the Valley and down in Tucson,  didn't really ramp up until later in the month and into August.. 

This week's CPC 3-4 week outlook thoughts



CPC's Monthly thoughts on July as a whole..



Who has the right idea?

  ..We'll see where things stand after the 20th. 

At least the Gulf Of California is looking good.. 

Forgot to add, Washingtonia next door and in the street island got their summer haircut  this week / today.. so maybe now it will start raining, haha.. ( Sounds odd but seems we see our first really good soaking  after  they get trimmed )







 

[Silas_Sancona]

  Tucson atm   

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/~leuthold/best_of/20220701_severe.mp4


..Now head north up the 10.  We're waiting..

[Tyrone]

It went down to -0.5C last night which was a bit warmer than expected. I lit a fire then used the industrial fan to distribute the warmer air. It worked a treat. No frost forming on anything for quite a distance and I even reduced the dew formation. However there are two more nights of this before the normal rainy cloudy and warmer pattern returns.