What is your current yard temperature?

[GottmitAlex]

26 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

It went down to -0.5C last night which was a bit warmer than expected. I lit a fire then used the industrial fan to distribute the warmer air. It worked a treat. No frost forming on anything for quite a distance and I even reduced the dew formation. However there are two more nights of this before the normal rainy cloudy and warmer pattern returns. 

Outstanding Tyrone!

 

[GottmitAlex]

July 1st, 2022

9:22PM PST 

22c with subtle wind. Just perfect weather outside

 

[RyManUtah]

[Tyrone]

Neg 1.2C minimum this morning. Below zero C from 4am to 8am. 

My frost fan heaters worked well except my gas bottle froze solid which turned the heat down. Got plans to fix that.

Round 3 tonight, before hopefully significantly warmer weather. 

[UK_Palms]

Maxed out at 23.1C / 74F on Saturday, so temperatures are returning to normal again after the cooler spell. I am expecting it to warm up dramatically into the 30's C / 85F+ by this time next week. GFS modelling again hitting 40C+ / 104F+ in parts of England during following week, not that it will actually happen. That's the past 4 GFS runs that are showing 40C+ though for southern and central England. In fact tonights latest GFS run is showing 41C/ 106F in London and eastern England with temps locally up to 43C / 110F in places...

 

 

Never thought I would see the day where any model puts out 110F / 43.3C in the UK...

 

BBC forecast model is gradually notching up the degrees more. A hot July coming either way...

 

 

Official Met rainfall data is out for June now. It's my 8th consecutive month with below average rainfall at 0.63 inches. I've only had 7.4 inches since November 1st 2021 (8 months).

 

Terrifying model runs for precipitation with no rain in parts of southern England over the next 2 weeks plus. I have about 1mm forecasted here in extended forecast and London may get 1-2mm potentially. Either way it is an exceptionally dry outlook. July could finish as another 0.1 inches month like November, January and April. If that happens I can only imagine how bad the fire situation will be on top of current problem. This is accumulated rainfall (mm) up until 18th July.

 

The prognosis isn't good moving forward, especially if a record heatwave is combined with further drought. Nearly 1,500 grass fires in London area alone this year and that isn't including the multiple forest fires. Over 6,000 fires for the UK in total. I stopped covering them all as there was just too many to report on. Worryingly, summer is barely out of neutral yet...

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Tyrone]

5C at 8.15pm. Gonna get cold. Again. 

[Silas_Sancona]

105F at 3PM.. Some clouds around, a breeze but otherwise quiet..



Seen this before, ...and definitely not holding my breath  ..But would be nice..

....Some Tucson to Phoenix action on the 4th??

Suggested radar









Suggested Lightning Activity / Density:

[Tyrone]

Minus 1.8C minimum this morning. Fell below zero from about 3am to 8.15am. My frost heaters/fans didn't completely eliminate the frost in the area I was protecting, but greatly reduced it. I think Ive saved my Hyophorbe indica's, Abyssinian bananas and normal bananas. I had frost form under canopy in other areas, but they are filled with plants that should be fine with it. The bird bath had ice that was hard to break and around 4mm thick. The coldest I saw in the general area was about 30km away at Redmond which is more inland than me with a bone chilling minus 3.8C!!!

I'm glad I didn't fill my landscape willy nilly with marginal stuff everywhere. The carnage would have been terrible. As it is I may need to reconsider some of the things I'm growing here, and become a bit more of a "safe" palm gardener. What hasn't helped is a lot of my canopy in my marginal zone has died or is dying from last years floods. Its an opportunity to cut down 2/3 of the pine forest (I never planted it) and try something else. I never liked the pines. I'm thinking more giant bamboo and other fast growing canopy trees. 

A cold front is predicted to come through around 7am tomorrow morning with a build up of north westerly winds and clouds from about 3am so hopefully that is the last of this cold barrage. Ive never recorded back to back frosty nights here. Normally when you do get them, you get one, then the next night it warms up followed by some nice warm nights. Not this year though. All our rain and moisture has gone up past the NT and down into QLD and NSW, with some areas flooding terribly in their dry season!

[sandgroper]

A beautiful bright sunny day in Perth heading for a top of 20c before we get some much needed rain tomorrow.

[Tyrone]

1 hour ago, sandgroper said:

A beautiful bright sunny day in Perth heading for a top of 20c before we get some much needed rain tomorrow.

Sunny here too but we won't hit 20C. Maybe 17C.

I'm looking forward believe it or not to have more moisture in the air, a bit of air movement, and clouds. That high can budge east and hopefully clear the rain they are getting in NSW. Come back normal night minimums. 

I was just thinking this morning how weird it is to open your fridge door, look inside, and think that its warmer in your fridge than out in your garden where your tropical plants live. It didn't get above 4C (fridge crisper temp) until around 9.15am this morning at my place. That's around 12hrs at fridge crisper temp.

[sandgroper]

1 hour ago, Tyrone said:

Sunny here too but we won't hit 20C. Maybe 17C.

I'm looking forward believe it or not to have more moisture in the air, a bit of air movement, and clouds. That high can budge east and hopefully clear the rain they are getting in NSW. Come back normal night minimums. 

I was just thinking this morning how weird it is to open your fridge door, look inside, and think that its warmer in your fridge than out in your garden where your tropical plants live. It didn't get above 4C (fridge crisper temp) until around 9.15am this morning at my place. That's around 12hrs at fridge crisper temp.

That sounds unpleasant Tyrone, not good when your fridge is warmer than outside. Terrible that NSW is copping more flooding, I really hope that stops as soon as possible, they don't need more natural disasters. I've got a soft spot for Sydney and country NSW, I lived in the Hunter Valley as a kid and have spent a lot of time in Sydney. I've been enjoying the sunny warm days but I'm ready for rain, not good when you have to water your garden in the rainy season. 

[Tyrone]

3 hours ago, sandgroper said:

That sounds unpleasant Tyrone, not good when your fridge is warmer than outside. Terrible that NSW is copping more flooding, I really hope that stops as soon as possible, they don't need more natural disasters. I've got a soft spot for Sydney and country NSW, I lived in the Hunter Valley as a kid and have spent a lot of time in Sydney. I've been enjoying the sunny warm days but I'm ready for rain, not good when you have to water your garden in the rainy season. 

Yes, the lack of rain is concerning.

In these dry clear times, I'm very very careful how much I water, just in case the minimum gets lower than forecast. I don't mind watering just before a cloudy rainy event, which sounds weird, but it's actually warmer then. In summer you don't need to be that careful about that. Its in winter in dry times that I find things in my nursery that may have got a little too dry. It's such a balancing act. Too little moisture and things go backward. Too much water in cold times and things go backward as well. 

I hope it stops raining in the east for a good while now. Some places have been flooded out 4 times in 18 months. That would be just soul destroying.

[Tyrone]

Well at sundown last night it was 12C. Colder than any previous night that early in the night so I prepped all the equipment ready to go again. By 8.30pm it had dropped to 6C but by 9.30pm the wind had returned and the temp had jumped up to 12.5C. The temp sat between 13-15C all night and it’s just about to start raining at sun up. This frost event is now over!

I got minor damage on certain things. My banana looks the worst hit but will return. My Abyssinian bananas look a bit beat up but will regrow. My Hyophorbe indica show no damage as well as the garden surrounding them. due to the heaters and fans. Further away my cannas and scheffleria are now brown and black. They were not protected by anything. Other things will likely show the real extent of damage in the coming weeks.

The average min for July here is around 7C. Until last night my July mins were averaging -0.85C. Last night will yank the average up in the right direction. It can only get better from here. 

7 weeks to spring and counting down. 

[UK_Palms]

The drought situation is intensifying further and really becoming critical here now. Only 1.4 inches of rainfall here in the past 4+ months now. It's sad to see the leaves wilting and dropping on the native trees already. Lots of dieback on native ground vegetation as well, which is not adapted to such dry conditions. It's almost semi-arid conditions now and there is no rainfall coming to alleviate things. It's bad enough during mild conditions like of late, but temperatures are about to go up a notch now too, so things are only going to get worse.

 

 

More worrying model runs putting out 41-42C again. Probably localised 43C / 110F on these charts. Prior to last week there had never been 40C+ shown on any UK weather model. Now the past 4 days have shown 40C+ on multiple model runs. While extremely unlikely to verify, it also suggests something has changed with the climate over here. Either that or the GFS is broken. In fact it's showing 40C+ across 3 consecutive days now with 28C isotherms. Maybe GFS is actually broken.

 

Regardless of how warm it gets later this month, one thing for sure is that it is going to be dry as a bone. As in nothing this month probably. I give it 2 more weeks before drinking water starts running out in London. Hosepipe bans will be imminent now. Once July is out it will probably be 1.4 inches of rain across 5 months at that point. 

[sandgroper]

Nice and wet today heading for a cool top of 18c.

[Foxpalms]

6 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

The drought situation is intensifying further and really becoming critical here now. Only 1.4 inches of rainfall here in the past 4+ months now. It's sad to see the leaves wilting and dropping on the native trees already. Lots of dieback on native ground vegetation as well, which is not adapted to such dry conditions. It's almost semi-arid conditions now and there is no rainfall coming to alleviate things. It's bad enough during mild conditions like of late, but temperatures are about to go up a notch now too, so things are only going to get worse.

 

 

More worrying model runs putting out 41-42C again. Probably localised 43C / 110F on these charts. Prior to last week there had never been 40C+ shown on any UK weather model. Now the past 4 days have shown 40C+ on multiple model runs. While extremely unlikely to verify, it also suggests something has changed with the climate over here. Either that or the GFS is broken. In fact it's showing 40C+ across 3 consecutive days now with 28C isotherms. Maybe GFS is actually broken.

 

Regardless of how warm it gets later this month, one thing for sure is that it is going to be dry as a bone. As in nothing this month probably. I give it 2 more weeks before drinking water starts running out in London. Hosepipe bans will be imminent now. Once July is out it will probably be 1.4 inches of rain across 5 months at that point. 

I have noticed all the grass that isn't in the shade is starting to die in fields and parks that hasn't been watered especially around London where it's warmer. I'm guessing the temperature will be in the high 30s not 40s but there is always a chance if we get a warm night clear skies all day and winds from the south a 40c+ day is not out of the question.

[Tyrone]

5 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

I have noticed all the grass that isn't in the shade is starting to die in fields and parks that hasn't been watered especially around London where it's warmer. I'm guessing the temperature will be in the high 30s not 40s but there is always a chance if we get a warm night clear skies all day and winds from the south a 40c+ day is not out of the question.

Unbelievable conditions in the uk. Dare I say it but if you’re getting extreme drought and heat now, there will be a complete opposite coming eventually. Just like the eastern states of Australia had ridiculous drought a couple of years back with bone dry rainforest being incinerated and then later seemingly unending floods that are still happening now. 

[Foxpalms]

27 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

Unbelievable conditions in the uk. Dare I say it but if you’re getting extreme drought and heat now, there will be a complete opposite coming eventually. Just like the eastern states of Australia had ridiculous drought a couple of years back with bone dry rainforest being incinerated and then later seemingly unending floods that are still happening now. 

Some parts of Sydney have had more rainfall in the last few days than London gets annually on an average year. Though this year is very dry the weather stations at London Heathrow are only showing 5 inches of rain (we are on track to have less rainfall than Athens Greece) and most of of that was in early spring and winter can't see any rainfall in the forecast for the coming weeks and the forecasts that were showing high 20s are now showing 30s but some models are still showing 40c. Some actually are showing 43c this is very unlikely but I have never seen them showing 40c+ before. Water companies have issued warnings about water usage too so we don't get hosepipe bans in the coming weeks 

[UK_Palms]

12 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

I have noticed all the grass that isn't in the shade is starting to die in fields and parks that hasn't been watered especially around London where it's warmer. I'm guessing the temperature will be in the high 30s not 40s but there is always a chance if we get a warm night clear skies all day and winds from the south a 40c+ day is not out of the question.

BBC are further ramping up the longer range forecast. While nothing excessively high, that is still a lot of prolonged warmth. I mean that forecast wouldn't look out of place in Perth during January. BBC always downplay it ahead of time, so I would expect that to go up even further to mid-30's C in coming days. With the continued absence of rainfall, London and southeast England is definitely running at warm-summer Med conditions this summer. So far at least. If you think it is dry out now, wait until another 10-14 days from now once that heat starts incinerating things. The wildfires will be even more ridiculous.

 

Anyway same sh*t, different day here. Another wildfire literally just down the road from me again. 3 miles away to be precise. This time I can actually see the plumes of smoke pouring across the skyline, rather than just smelling it. And it does stink! Fire crews are currently doing their best to contain it before it spreads even further. I am seeing posts on social media saying it is getting close to people's houses. We're getting proper burnt out here! Like it is real bad. The forests are going to be going up big time next week once the heat kicks in!

 

This has been going for over 24 hours now...

 

 

Look how dry the grass is there near to this fire...

 

6 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Unbelievable conditions in the uk. Dare I say it but if you’re getting extreme drought and heat now, there will be a complete opposite coming eventually. Just like the eastern states of Australia had ridiculous drought a couple of years back with bone dry rainforest being incinerated and then later seemingly unending floods that are still happening now. 

You're probably right. I wouldn't be shocked if we end up having our wettest autumn/fall on record after this prolonged drought to compensate. We would need to experience that just to offset the ridiculous rainfall deficit here. Over the past 8 months, since November, Los Angeles has had about 3-4 inches more rainfall in total than London I think. The only difference is our native vegetation isn't adapted to drought conditions here. That would explain the sheer number of fires. This is only going to get worse though in coming weeks. There is zero rainfall forecast over next few weeks. Longer term models suggest August will also be warmer and drier than average too.

Edited July 5, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

35 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

BBC are further ramping up the longer range forecast. While nothing excessively high, that is still a lot of prolonged warmth. I mean that forecast wouldn't look out of place in Perth during January. BBC always downplay it ahead of time, so I would expect that to go up even further to mid-30's C in coming days. With the continued absence of rainfall, London and southeast England is definitely running at warm-summer Med conditions this summer. So far at least. If you think it is dry out now, wait until another 10-14 days from now once that heat starts incinerating things. The wildfires will be even more ridiculous.

 

Anyway same sh*t, different day here. Another wildfire literally just down the road from me again. 3 miles away to be precise. This time I can actually see the plumes of smoke pouring across the skyline, rather than just smelling it. And it does stink! Fire crews are currently doing their best to contain it before it spreads even further. I am seeing posts on social media saying it is getting close to people's houses. We're getting proper burnt out here! Like it is real bad. The forests are going to be going up big time next week once the heat kicks in!

 

This has been going for over 24 hours now...

 

 

Look how dry the grass is there near to this fire...

 

You're probably right. I wouldn't be shocked if we end up having our wettest autumn/fall on record after this prolonged drought to compensate. We would need to experience that just to offset the ridiculous rainfall deficit here. Over the past 8 months, since November, Los Angeles has had about 3-4 inches more rainfall in total than London I think. The only difference is our native vegetation isn't adapted to drought conditions here. That would explain the sheer number of fires. This is only going to get worse though in coming weeks. There is zero rainfall forecast over next few weeks. Longer term models suggest August will also be warmer and drier than average too.

Well if this is what our climate is going to be like in the years  to come, if not worse, the council's and government as well should start paying some more attention to the need of different species rather than the usual ones planted. While it's not a good thing at least maybe rather than the typical plants planted now we might start seeing more eucalyptus trees and drought tolerant plants popping up which normally look nicer than the typical trees planted anyway. I would much rather see motorways lined with eucalyptus trees as they look nicer are evergreen and have a very pleasant scent to them. I think my point is maybe not now but 5 or more summers of this might wake people in the south east up a bit such as developers making shopping centers to plant things which will be suitable for the changing climate here rather than what's usually planted. Wouldn't it be nice to see shopping centers lined with Washingtonia and Canary Island date palms they've already proven to be hardy here  I think it's just getting more people to realize (not just palm enthusiasts) that they are something that can be grown and are something more suitable for the years to come with the milder winters and warmer summers. If you look at the last 10 years especially the last 5 years you can see the temperature averages evey month go up and up the temperature data averages are definitely outdated for London in my opinion.

[Samuel]

16 minutes ago, Foxpalms said:

Well if this is what our climate is going to be like in the years  to come, if not worse, the council's and government as well should start paying some more attention to the need of different species rather than the usual ones planted. While it's not a good thing at least maybe rather than the typical plants planted now we might start seeing more eucalyptus trees and drought tolerant plants popping up which normally look nicer than the typical trees planted anyway. I would much rather see motorways lined with eucalyptus trees as they look nicer are evergreen and have a very pleasant scent to them. I think my point is maybe not now but 5 or more summers of this might wake people in the south east up a bit such as developers making shopping centers to plant things which will be suitable for the changing climate here rather than what's usually planted. Wouldn't it be nice to see shopping centers lined with Washingtonia and Canary Island date palms they've already proven to be hardy here  I think it's just getting more people to realize (not just palm enthusiasts) that they are something that can be grown and are something more suitable for the years to come with the milder winters and warmer summers. If you look at the last 10 years especially the last 5 years you can see the temperature averages evey month go up and up the temperature data averages are definitely outdated for London in my opinion.

I think we need to calm down a bit yes the climate is warming but the uk/southern England is still a damp cloudy climate I mean June was the first summer month since 2019 to have 200+ of sunshine the majority of summers over the past decade have been very wet with only short periods of heat and have only come out warmer then average due to high night time temperatures due to all the cloud 

[Foxpalms]

1 hour ago, Samuel said:

I think we need to calm down a bit yes the climate is warming but the uk/southern England is still a damp cloudy climate I mean June was the first summer month since 2019 to have 200+ of sunshine the majority of summers over the past decade have been very wet with only short periods of heat and have only come out warmer then average due to high night time temperatures due to all the cloud 

Most summers except last year have been fairly dry for me not damp I find the summers are slightly drier between specifically June and July  but the the UK is very cloudy though. The predictions though are that London will slowly be transitioning to a Mediterranean climate and while I would not call it that now it may be in 15-20 years time. The temperature during the day not just night have been higher in London in the last 10 years and I cant see it getting colder just slowly hotter. If washys and CIDP can grow well now and we slowly will be getting warmer I think people may as well start planting more of them. I've just checked the forecast and even more forecasts are showing 40c for the end of next week still unlikely but still a good chance it could happen. Here is the change in temperatures during the day this is for London Heathrow you can definitely see it's getting hotter and hotter and this year is no different.

[sandgroper]

The rain didn't last long, bright and sunny outside heading for 19c.

[UK_Palms]

4 hours ago, Samuel said:

I think we need to calm down a bit yes the climate is warming but the uk/southern England is still a damp cloudy climate I mean June was the first summer month since 2019 to have 200+ of sunshine the majority of summers over the past decade have been very wet with only short periods of heat and have only come out warmer then average due to high night time temperatures due to all the cloud 

 

This drought is largely unprecedented given its scale (worst since 1976), but the summers are getting hotter every year anyway, generally speaking. Last year was a freak blip however. What's the bet the temperature record will go again this year? This is the latest ECMWF modelling for London City airport, which is one of the colder London stations in summer. You can probably add 2-3C on top of that for Kew, Heathrow, Northolt etc, so 36-37C by next Thursday. If the longer range models are anything to go by, temps are supposed to peak a few days later around 16th-17th.

 

Tonights GFS has 40C / 104F in London again and 42C / 108F locally in southeast England on 16th...

 

On another note that wildfire is absolutely raging just to my northwest. It's the worst, strongest smoke smell I have ever smelt. I hope they get it under control ASAP. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Tyrone]

5 hours ago, sandgroper said:

The rain didn't last long, bright and sunny outside heading for 19c.

Same here. We got 1mm of rain from it. Pretty pathetic for July, but at least we had cloud and no frost. Well we very nearly did again. By 8.30pm it had dropped to 6.5C and I thought, "here we go again" Over my place was cloudless last night in the early evening but just south of me had cloud. Then as the night progressed the cloud moved in just a tad to give us a 3C minimum. Cold, but after what we've just had, "warm". 

Similar tonight I reckon. Much too dry for July though. 

Right now it's a sunny day 14.7C but we peaked at 17.1C today. But I want the clouds to return and stay all night. This is mental torture. 

I'm amazed that Broome the night before last dropped to 6C!!!!!. That's why there are no lipstick palms up there. Even Derby was around 6C. I just checked the BOM for predicted minimums and Batchelor in the NT a stones throw from Darwin is predicted to go down to 10C. Even the Tiwi Islands in the ocean are predicted to hit 16C. It's only about 11 degrees to the equator there. About 1200-1300kms to the equator. 

Only around 7 weeks to Spring.

[GottmitAlex]

July 6, 3:00 PM PST : 30C

 

[UK_Palms]

Max of 24.7C / 75F for me here today. It's the calm before the storm, well before the heat dome starts setting up. It's looking hot, sunny and unbelievably dry moving forward.

 

The filthy GFS runs just keep coming. This is the worst one yet. Probably a localised 45C / 113F on that chart, but it will never verify. How GFS is even producing so many of these ridiculous charts though is alarming. It's throwing out 40's C every day now. That is definitely unprecedented.

 

The Euro model is getting into same timeframe now and also modelling up to 40C as well.

 

At least the wildfire situation isn't too bad in my neck of the woods... NOT.

 

Edited July 7, 2022 by UK_Palms

[sandgroper]

Currently 12c heading for 19c.  A bit cloudy outside at the moment but there's nothing in it. Expecting 23c tomorrow before the rain comes back.

[Tyrone]

It was a bit of a tense one last night. We had blue skies all day. A high had set up again in the Bight like the weekend freeze one did and my place had dropped to 5C by 7pm. I thought here we go again. I was contemplating seriously lighting all the heaters again and getting the fans in place. By 10pm it had dropped about a degree to around 4C, and just kind of oscillated a bit just above 4C and just below 4C. We were expecting clouds to come in from the east using the EWCMF model and it sort of looked about right on the satellite. I went outside and could actually see cloud starting to arrive, but boy the stars looked clear. It dropped down to about 3.4C when I went to bed at 11pm. I checked the temp at 2am and it had lifted to 4.7C. It had bottomed out at 3.2C. The clouds had moved in and by daybreak it was 5 or 6C depending on exactly where you are with fine drizzle. 

So this weather is testing my nerve I tell you. I made the right call though.

The weekend frost damaged my unprotected Hedychiums, which is OK as they will come back, but the smell of decomposing vegetation is around now. 

[cbmnz]

4 hours ago, Tyrone said:

It was a bit of a tense one last night. We had blue skies all day. A high had set up again in the Bight like the weekend freeze one did and my place had dropped to 5C by 7pm. I thought here we go again. I was contemplating seriously lighting all the heaters again and getting the fans in place. By 10pm it had dropped about a degree to around 4C, and just kind of oscillated a bit just above 4C and just below 4C. We were expecting clouds to come in from the east using the EWCMF model and it sort of looked about right on the satellite. I went outside and could actually see cloud starting to arrive, but boy the stars looked clear. It dropped down to about 3.4C when I went to bed at 11pm. I checked the temp at 2am and it had lifted to 4.7C. It had bottomed out at 3.2C. The clouds had moved in and by daybreak it was 5 or 6C depending on exactly where you are with fine drizzle. 

So this weather is testing my nerve I tell you. I made the right call though.

The weekend frost damaged my unprotected Hedychiums, which is OK as they will come back, but the smell of decomposing vegetation is around now. 

Yeah, I hate those nights when temp drops fast after dark and seems so clear but the forecast is adamant that cloud is coming or fog will form so frost protection is not necessary. It's a big mental challenge to make a final decision to cover/protect or not then stick with it. Look forward to September onwards when only a perfect setup can cause significant freeze and will know days in advance any night that is a risk. Does make one wonder why don't just grow only things fully hardy and not have to keep tabs on the weather at all over these worst three months.

[Foxpalms]

79f 40% humidity in London. Not bad for the start of the july warm weather will be getting much warmer.

[Silas_Sancona]

102F at 12:07pm, on the way to 106-108F later as we stare down the next stretch of 110F/ 110F+ heat starting tomorrow..  lasting through Tuesday or Wednesday as monsoon activity sets up for act #2 later....

Current WxU. 10 day for Chandler :



Tucson: No 110F readings in the forecast for now, and rain chances may begin to inch up past Saturday or Sunday down there..




Looking further out:

As mentioned, Monsoonal activity has been pushed well south into N.M / Mexico for the tie being thanks to the persistent trough of Low Pressure off the West Coast that deveoped around the 1st... While that should get kicked all the way to the Upper Midwest / Canada, High pressure retrograding west from the Southern Plains may try to set it's sights on sitting over AZ and N.M. for at least a few days keeping a return of moisture from the east and south suppressed into Mexico ..before possibly getting nudged north into the Great Basin and hopefully anchoring itself there.. Should that happen, fair to decent rain chances should return to the lower deserts.  Should the High pressure area continue wandering around the west like a blind, drunken fool, that could spell trouble.. ( more heat / reduced opportunity for rain < Busted forecast for a good summer, if such a pattern persists into/ thru Aug. and Sept. > )

That said, for the moment at least, several signals point out an uptick in rain chances beyond the middle of next week..

Pivitol GFS total Precip.  ** Should add:   Precip. totals have been bouncing around all over the place between runs on the GFS,  so no one run is completely trustworthy.. **

Last night's 00z



Morning's 12Z




GEFS Model runs ( goes out to 840 hours )  continue w/ decent total rainfall forecasts thru the first 8-10 days of August for AZ/ N.M ( and surrounding areas )..

July 6th 00z run " suggestion ".. GEFS takes approx a full day to complete the 840 hour run, so you'd look over the 00z run from the prior day to get an idea of what it is thinking in terms of Precip. totals or a 7 day precip anomaly trend.  At this point, looks good, though not quite as bullish as a couple 00z runs a few days ago.. 


Notice too what it is suggesting for parts of S. Cal / the Sierras.. Again, this is just a suggestion, not a guarantee anyone will see the suggested precip amounts during this time frame.... 



August update of the NMME Suite is out and this month's update is looking a little better compared to last month's dismal look..  Notice only one model member leans really dry.  September and October could be a different story..  Current CFS " thoughts " for the next couple months are similar.   ** the usual Caveat, these are just " suggested " forecasts.. 

All in all, current pattern looks similar to the same period in July as last year at the moment.. Was 116F on July 16th last year,  and it didn't really start dumping here in until shortly after that   ..so, as mentioned earlier,  we'll see how things are looking around the 20th.




Current SST's in the GOC continue looking ok.. though i'd like to see them a bit warmer ( more 29C + in the northern half.. Seems that isotherm is stuck south of Tiburon Island ftm  ) Hopefully this stretch of heat will help the northern gulf warm a bit more.  If it develops, there may be a tropical system in the extended forecast that provides a little nudge as it passes close to.. or over the mouth of the Gulf / Cabo San Lucas as well later.



Side note:

Looking wayyyy out.. A " Take this with a grain of salt - for now- "  glimpse into this month's NMME thoughts for the winter ahead.  Ugly for the West .. but gonna be real' ugly if our drunken fool 4 corners High doesn't sober up and stop wandering around.  Regardless, don't count on the drought situation getting any better..


December:  ***Image credit: CPC and NMME forecast Model data ***

Precip.



Temps:


Jan.
Precip.



Temps.



Feb.

Precip.




Temps.



*** ...Again, for the time being ..Take these forecast suggestions  w/ a grain of Salt..   We'll see how the same months look at the start of October..

[Phil Petersen]

Dunedin, New Zealand, July 8th, 9:00am, 8.4c. Raining today after a long run of sunny and dry mid-winter weather.

[Tyrone]

Last night we had cloud around so it was a comparatively balmy 10.6C around 11pm. This morning clouds had all fled away. 2.6C before sun up. Forecast was for 8C. Clouds returning during the day. Just when we don’t need them. 

[Tyrone]

1.8C minimum today. Should be warmer tonight with a cold front coming through. Clouds, wind and rain for the weekend.

[GottmitAlex]

July 7th, 2022

6:28 PM PST 

80F

 

[kinzyjr]

After a few scorching hot days where the rain seemed to drop everywhere but here, we're getting a good soak:

[UK_Palms]

Max of 26.1C / 78F here on Thursday with barely a cloud in the sky. A good day to snap a few photos of the drought. Expecting 29C / 84F tomorrow. 

To say it is dry right now is an understatement. The grass is dead and I am noticing a concerning amount of leaf drop too already amongst native flora. The wildfire risk is extreme!

Edited July 8, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Tyrone]

@UK_PalmsThat's certainly not how I picture England at all. I remember it being green. 

[sandgroper]

A pleasant 23c today, I think tomorrow is expected to be around 21c but with rain coming. No complaints about the rain or the temps, quite happy with both.