What is your current yard temperature?

[Tyrone]

9.46pm 18.4C. 

[Foxpalms]

86f/30c with 31% humidity in London. A lot of high 80s around Northolt and Heathrow and couple 90fs around there on wunderground. UV index today was 8 or very high.

[Silas_Sancona]

106F at 12:31,  on the way to 109-111F.. Hot weekend inbound..  but actually not looking too crazy.  Monday looks to be the hottest ( 113F forecast ) for the next 8-10 days.

We're actually a bit below average when it comes to # of 110F / 110F+ days for the year so far ..for now anyway..



Some Satellite " Eye Candy "  to kick off the weekend: ** Credit: College of Dupage True Color imagery **


Believe it or not but that is Hurricane Bonnie to the west of Baja, ..on the way to bring showers to Hawaii??   Same storm that raked the top of South America / crossed Central America several days ago.



Interesting " swirl " that one might mistake for a developing tropical system..  Is what is left of a Meso Scale Convective Vortex ( MCV = Large area of Thunderstorms that develops pronounced counter clockwise rotation as it moves )  that rolled off Puerto Vallarta last night. Activity was associated w/ a larger Easterly Wave that had crossed Mexico the last two days. 

Not out of the question it tries to develop some tropical characteristics as it continues west.. but is yet another " fish storm " in the making -if it does anything..  There's another disturbance to it's south that could become the next tropical system here in the East Pacific sometime next week. That system could help amp Monsoonal activity here.



 

[Tyrone]

1.30am 20C. 

[sandgroper]

5.20am in Perth, still dark and currently 17c.

[Tyrone]

8am and 18C. Strong gusty northerly winds. Expecting a rainy day which we desperately need. 

[UK_Palms]

Max of 30.1C / 86F in my yard on Friday. It looked more like 31C / 88F in central Guildford. Fresh wildfire problems again to my southeast too with bush fires burning all afternoon. 

 

23 hours ago, Tyrone said:

@UK_PalmsThat's certainly not how I picture England at all. I remember it being green. 

Well if it's looking bad now it's going to get a whole lot worse over the coming weeks. There isn't any rainfall coming to alleviate things. I suspect the driest parts of southeast England are probably still stuck on about 4 inches of rainfall for the entire year so far and 6 inches since November (8 months). So roughly about 0.7 inches per month on average this year. 

All the 'green' London parks look like the surface of Mars. This is Wimbledon common...

 

It really doesn't look promising for any rain. A big fat 0mm through to the 18th on the GFS. This is 10 days accumulated precipitation up to then. There's nothing showing. Pretty prolonged warmth as well at this stage of the year. GFS still modelling 40C charts for next weekend. Some models also have 37C / 100F for Tuesday next week.

Edited July 9, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Tyrone]

@UK_PalmsWow. London is looking more like the WA wheatbelt in March every day.  Dry dead and hot as hell. 

Its been dry here. This morning my nursery and garden were bone dry in places. It was warm today (20C) with strong winds after the ridiculously warm night last night but the air was bone dry. I had to water my nursery plants well. With the threat of cold clear mornings I let them dry right out. They were right on the limit I reckon. I gave them a good soak, and at 3.30pm the cold front finally arrived and it’s chucking it down. 

Time to call it a day. 

[greysrigging]

Well, thats our run of sub 30c temps broken. 12 of 'em !

But still below the long term mean of 30.7c.

[Foxpalms]

83f/28.3c 33% humdity UV index 8 today. Unless you water your lawn all the grass is all dead or dieing due to the lack of rain this year. Here's some photos of the how dry the ground is in London.

[Foxpalms]

Forgot to mention a lot more forecasts suggesting 40c for the next weekend or the week after. Possible but I still think it's unlikely high 30s is what I'd expect to see.

[UK_Palms]

8 hours ago, Tyrone said:

@UK_PalmsWow. London is looking more like the WA wheatbelt in March every day.  Dry dead and hot as hell. 

The constant irrigation of my palms, plants, veg/crops etc is getting really tedious now. The latest GFS charts are off the scale. We could be looking at a major heat event across western Europe now with a heat dome similar to what the PNW had last year. That on top of what is already a major drought as well for us here. So a potential double whammy. 

Latest GFS operational (proper) run has a staggering 43C / 109F for me here on Sunday 17th and then 44C / 111F for the following day. That would be brutal. Almost impossible, surely. These charts aren't 2 weeks out anymore though, they are 7-8 days away. A lot could still change as well, but I think we will probably see 40C / 104F next weekend now.

 

The following day is even worse... 44C / 111F in London @Foxpalms

 

@Silas_Sancona How well does the GFS model operate for you guys in the USA? Like how reliable do you find it? Does it reliably perform out to 7-8 days, or does it change a lot?

 

How is there a localised 114F / 45.5C on the GFS. Madness. That I can confidently say will never happen. It's the end of days for all mankind if the UK ever approaches 115F. 

 

ECMWF is nowhere near as hot, at least not yet anyway. I fear it will follow trend though as it is already looking pretty warm too. That is for London City airport though, which is one of the cooler London stations in summer. You can add at least 1-2C on top of that for Heathrow and Kew Gardens. Signs of an unprecedented heatwave are clearly strengthening. Not what we need given the extent of the drought and wildfires. This could prove catastrophic. Like the straw that breaks the camels back.

Definite heat dome signals for northwest Europe. Never seen anything like it!

[Foxpalms]

6 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

The constant irrigation of my palms, plants, veg/crops etc is getting really tedious now. The latest GFS charts are off the scale. We could be looking at a major heat event across western Europe now with a heat dome similar to what the PNW had last year. That on top of what is already a major drought as well for us here. So a potential double whammy. 

Latest GFS operational (proper) run has a staggering 43C / 109F for me here on Sunday 17th and then 44C / 111F for the following day. That would be brutal. Almost impossible, surely. These charts aren't 2 weeks out anymore though, they are 7-8 days away. A lot could still change as well, but I think we will probably see 40C / 104F next weekend now.

 

The following day is even worse... 44C / 111F in London @Foxpalms

 

@Silas_Sancona How well does the GFS model operate for you guys in the USA? Like how reliable do you find it? Does it reliably perform out to 7-8 days, or does it change a lot?

 

How is there a localised 114F / 45.5C on the GFS. Madness. That I can confidently say will never happen. It's the end of days for all mankind if the UK ever approaches 115F. 

 

ECMWF is nowhere near as hot, at least not yet anyway. I fear it will follow trend though as it is already looking pretty warm too. That is for London City airport though, which is one of the cooler London stations in summer. You can add at least 1-2C on top of that for Heathrow and Kew Gardens. Signs of an unprecedented heatwave are clearly strengthening. Not what we need given the extent of the drought and wildfires. This could prove catastrophic. Like the straw that breaks the camels back.

Definite heat dome signals for northwest Europe. Never seen anything like it!

Have a look at the forecast for London on weather25.com and weather.com both showing very hot temperature for London. I think it will be hotter than the BBC and metoffice forecasts since it's been hotter the past few days for me than the forecasts have shown.

[Xenon]

I don't want to hear Floridians complain about heat and humidity 

 

 

Edited July 9, 2022 by Xenon

[GottmitAlex]

July 9th, 2022

2:00 PM PST 

32C

 

[GottmitAlex]

July 9th, 2022

2:00 PM PST 

32C

 

[RyManUtah]

[Foxpalms]

@UK_Palms Take a look a some of the forecasts for London and London Heathrow. Very hot we will see how hot it gets! 

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Xenon said:

I don't want to hear Floridians complain about heat and humidity 

 

 

I don't want to heat Floridians ..or coastal Texans.. complain about heat, ever..


 

[Silas_Sancona]

5 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

 

 

@Silas_Sancona How well does the GFS model operate for you guys in the USA? Like how reliable do you find it? Does it reliably perform out to 7-8 days, or does it change a lot?

 

 

As we've all seen,  GFS can be "ok" ~ at best~.. and can vary widely day to day...  sometimes by quite a bit..  Then again, all Wx models can do the same thing.. especially beyond 3 or 4 days.  Trends that show up are what you'd pay attention to more, especially if multiple Wx models anchor onto the same " idea "  over a few days time frame.

Reminds me a lot of one's luck at a Slot Machine with half a dozen ( or more ) slots ( each "slot" = an individual Wx model's " thoughts " on a potential outcome ) 

[RyManUtah]

48 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

I don't want to heat Floridians ..or coastal Texans.. complain about heat, ever..

[sandgroper]

8.00am and 14c at the moment with plenty of sunshine outside. It's supposed to rain but we didn't get a lot yesterday so it may have passed.

[Tyrone]

15 hours ago, greysrigging said:

Well, thats our run of sub 30c temps broken. 12 of 'em !

But still below the long term mean of 30.7c.

That’s actually cold for Darwin. Especially when you consider you are 12 degrees from the equator. I wonder if the same latitudes in the north in Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam get that sort of cool off. 

[Tyrone]

8.45am and 10.6C. Sun is shining. Top of 15C forecast. Although we had moderate falls of rain in periods last night, it really wasn’t that much that fell. Only a few mms. They fell in short sharp bursts. We haven’t had one of those days where we get consistent rain all day this winter. You need a cold front to basically stall on top of you or a low that sits around and won’t shift. We’ve had plenty of highs doing that though. 

In regards to southern UK getting into the 40s, I hope that doesn’t eventuate. Quite a few people especially the elderly will die if that happens. Houses in the UK are designed to trap and hold heat, not repel it. Even 28C in London feels hot due to this. Very few would have refrigerated air conditioning. I’ve always liked the sun rooms many have in the UK. I’d like to make a version down here one day. But if you get a 40C plus day with a sun room, expect all the plants to be dead in there by evening if the doors are left shut. Kew gardens palm house will need all the vents open and have the irrigation going flat out if it gets to 40C or they could very well lose most of their collection.

[greysrigging]

17 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

That’s actually cold for Darwin. Especially when you consider you are 12 degrees from the equator. I wonder if the same latitudes in the north in Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam get that sort of cool off. 

The next 7 days also well below average....ahh, the benefits of having a continental landmass below you....

[Xenon]

2 hours ago, Silas_Sancona said:

I don't want to heat Floridians ..or coastal Texans.. complain about heat, ever..


 

Yeah yeah but ya'll can't touch our dew points 

[Silas_Sancona]

39 minutes ago, Xenon said:

Yeah yeah but ya'll can't touch our dew points 

Daily? no, thankfully, lol  but 70 deg + 105-110F air temp. isn't uncommon here this time of year..  Rarer as it might be, 80deg ( or above that ) isn't unheard of either, esp. down by Yuma and El Centro in the " Pure Torture " zone.

[RyManUtah]

44 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

Daily? no, thankfully, lol 

I feel like the “feels like” temperatures also don’t stay triple digits the entire summer in these more coastal locations. They get things like rain and cloud relief. Doesn’t humidity keep plants from drying out so quickly? The torture.. 

[Silas_Sancona]

23 minutes ago, RyManUtah said:

I feel like the “feels like” temperatures also don’t stay triple digits the entire summer in these more coastal locations. They get things like rain and cloud relief. Doesn’t humidity keep plants from drying out so quickly? The torture.. 

Haha..

Imagine if the entire Gulf Coast,  -and  FL.  went 1 ....Just 1  ENTIRE   summer w/ less  than 5" of rain,  105-115F heat ( air temp, ..none of this " feels like " temp stuff )  -at least-  4 days each month,   ..and humidity levels  no higher  than 20% / Dew Points around the same level on most days    ...Mid May - October ..or November..   Not just a few weeks, or a month or two.

I'd chip in a Dime to see all the " feedback " afterward, lol.

Yes, while in FL.,  i remember the few weeks before the rains would start where it approached 110-110+ w/ the dew point and temp. ..and while hot as < insert our own personally descriptive word here > when working out in it,   it wasn't quite as hell-ish as that can be here.. Certainly didn't effect me the way it can here...

Things would dry out pretty fast during such periods -stuff in pots anyway.. and was a pain in the < insert descriptive word > to keep up with at times. That said, relief from rains and better humidity was always a few days away and lasted until it cooled down in the Fall.. 

Thinking about it, aside from some CA. natives i knew probably wouldn't make it,  i can't recall loosing anything i kept out in full sun to sun- related damage.. Some " desert " stuff actually grew better there..  Can't count all the stuff exposed to full summer sun has put to sleep here, even Cacti and Agave -planted in the ground.

[Xenon]

47 minutes ago, RyManUtah said:

I feel like the “feels like” temperatures also don’t stay triple digits the entire summer in these more coastal locations. They get things like rain and cloud relief. Doesn’t humidity keep plants from drying out so quickly? The torture.. 

That would true in a normal summer but we just came out of the hottest June in recorded history and July looks unrelenting so far.  June at the coast was the 4th hottest month ever. I've seen 30+ days since June with a high above 99F so no "relief" from the triple digit heat index. Things that I normally have in full sun are crisped and scorched. Many areas are in extreme drought and haven't seen appreciable rain since May. 

[Xenon]

17 minutes ago, Silas_Sancona said:

That said, relief from rains and better humidity was always a few days away and lasted until it cooled down in the Fall.. 
 

Well that's not Texas , it didn't rain in June and may not in July but will probably flood Harvey-style 50 inches in 3 days in August. 

Well anyways the cheeky remark was about heat and humidity, not you folks out west. I did happen to drive through Phoenix during one of the 115F heat waves in 2016 and yes it was a very different kind of hot! 

[Silas_Sancona]

17 minutes ago, Xenon said:

That would true in a normal summer but we just came out of the hottest June in recorded history and July looks unrelenting so far.  June at the coast was the 4th hottest month ever. I've seen 30+ days since June with a high above 99F so no "relief" from the triple digit heat index. Things that I normally have in full sun are crisped and scorched. Many areas are in extreme drought and haven't seen appreciable rain since May. 

Everyone should start getting used to the heat since it appears this may be just a hint of what may lie ahead for the state, ..catching up with the rest of the overall Southwest: 

**Note the section implying " Drier Conditions in West Texas will slowly migrate into east TX. " **  There will still be rainy years, but Evapotranspiration rates will go up causing less water to go where it is needed. Wildfire event risk will also rise as well.

https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/texas-am-study-hotter-and-drier-mega-drought-1000-years/

..Another:

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2020-07-10-texas-weather-hotter-drier-drought-water-use

[UK_Palms]

@Foxpalms Is that showing 46C / 115F at Heathrow in the first graph!? I don't even know how parameters allow for this to be modelled in the UK at 51N. Like even if it isn't physically possible at this northern latitude, how are the models (GFS specifically) generating mid-40's C as actual modelled forecasts? This is entering the historic error category, if it is an error, since it has been signalled for a week now. GFS will lose massive credibility over here in UK and Europe from this, or it will gain credibility if the model is somewhat correct. It certainly isn't going to be a 'cool' one either way thats for sure.

 

The 00z GFS run still had 43C in London. It would have to be an unprecedented heat dome event like the PNW in 2021. I have been seeing temperatures of up to 50C / 122F in western France as well on GFS. The European all-time record is only 48C / 118F (Athens 1977). Parts of Morocco have smashed all-time records today. That is where the plume of heat is going to be coming from, which adds further fuel to the idea. There is a lot of very hot air over north Africa and southern Spain/Portugal, which will be plumed in our direction if those models verify. 

 

So are we approaching uncharted territory, or is it just model mishaps? The ECMWF has that low just off Portugal dragging the Saharan heat up north towards us as well. This scenario almost seems locked on now really. As Samuel L Jackson says, "hold onto your butts". 

Edited July 10, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

@Foxpalms Is that showing 46C / 115F at Heathrow in the first graph!? I don't even know how parameters allow for this to be modelled in the UK at 51N. Like even if it isn't physically possible at this northern latitude, how are the models (GFS specifically) generating mid-40's C as actual modelled forecasts? This is entering the historic error category, if it is an error, since it has been signalled for a week now. GFS will lose massive credibility over here in UK and Europe from this, or it will gain credibility if the model is somewhat correct. It certainly isn't going to be a 'cool' one either way thats for sure.

 

The 00z GFS run still had 43C in London. It would have to be an unprecedented heat dome event like the PNW in 2021. I have been seeing temperatures of up to 50C / 122F in western France as well on GFS. The European all-time record is only 48C / 118F (Athens 1977). Parts of Morocco have smashed all-time records today. That is where the plume of heat is going to be coming from, which adds further fuel to the idea. There is a lot of very hot air over north Africa and southern Spain/Portugal, which will be plumed in our direction if those models verify. 

 

So are we approaching uncharted territory, or is it just model mishaps? The ECMWF has that low just off Portugal dragging the Saharan heat up north towards us as well. This scenario almost seems locked on now really. As Samuel L Jackson says, "hold onto your butts". 

The first one was 44c with a feel like of 46 the one that shows the 45 44c temps is London Heathrow's forecast. Heathrow has gone up to 34c now on the BBC forecast and as they have slowly been increasing the temperature and every other forecast other than BBC and is showing 40c+ I'd say if the pressure stay the same I'd except at least 38 39 for Heathrow if not 40.

[Foxpalms]

11 hours ago, Tyrone said:

8.45am and 10.6C. Sun is shining. Top of 15C forecast. Although we had moderate falls of rain in periods last night, it really wasn’t that much that fell. Only a few mms. They fell in short sharp bursts. We haven’t had one of those days where we get consistent rain all day this winter. You need a cold front to basically stall on top of you or a low that sits around and won’t shift. We’ve had plenty of highs doing that though. 

In regards to southern UK getting into the 40s, I hope that doesn’t eventuate. Quite a few people especially the elderly will die if that happens. Houses in the UK are designed to trap and hold heat, not repel it. Even 28C in London feels hot due to this. Very few would have refrigerated air conditioning. I’ve always liked the sun rooms many have in the UK. I’d like to make a version down here one day. But if you get a 40C plus day with a sun room, expect all the plants to be dead in there by evening if the doors are left shut. Kew gardens palm house will need all the vents open and have the irrigation going flat out if it gets to 40C or they could very well lose most of their collection.

Most people in the UK don't have air conditioning but London is an exception. I think most people have ac in London as it's the hottest place in summer during the day and night and it's probably the highest income area in the UK. I think the only areas that might reach 40c if the pressure is the same are the Heathrow Northolt areas of London I'd expect everywhere else to be in the high 30s

[UK_Palms]

2 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

The first one was 44c with a feel like of 46 the one that shows the 45 44c temps is London Heathrow's forecast. Heathrow has gone up to 34c now on the BBC forecast and as they have slowly been increasing the temperature and every other forecast other than BBC and is showing 40c+ I'd say if the pressure stay the same I'd except at least 38 39 for Heathrow if not 40.

Mate, I wouldn't keep quoting my posts with photos/links as it will duplicate them into the thread and add to load times further. By all means quote text, but Just @ me when referring to a post with photos and links, so it doesn't duplicate them into the thread and increase load times. Cheers. We may have to move this convo into one of the other Euro threads.

Anyway the latest GFS is just another horror show. 41-42C / 107F on Sunday and then 43C / 110F on the Monday near London. Heathrow & Kew would probably reach 44C / 112F. 

 

ECM is looking like it may throw up 3 consecutive days of 40C plus now too. We're 7 days out still but I can see this locking on in coming days. There's just too much cross model consistency appearing now. Again we are talking about historic errors and GFS especially making the biggest forecast errors/blunders in history if this flops now. We can never trust GFS again on this side of the pond if it is wrong now and it has spent a solid week skewing reality with inaccurate forecast models. So it will be historic for one reason or another.

The other models however are falling in line too and suggest it is very much real. The ECMWF is now back on board again for the plume, similar to GFS, as are most other models including the UK Met Office model, which only runs up to 17th, when 18th-19th will be hottest period. Just look at those 850 hPa temps for this latitude! 25C+ isotherms reaching our shores. This isn't Morocco or Mexico. Like what is going on!? This may well be the result of excessive runaway heating from climate change/global warming. I don't know how else to explain it.

 

BBC aren't holding back. Already predicting 37C / 100F, which will almost certainly be increased in the coming days as we approach the inferno period. I have never seen BBC put up 37C / 100F when it is still a full week away. They are usually pretty conservative and then end up scaling it up about 3-4 days out. @Tyrone

 

This is legit terrifying now... 43C in Guildford and 45C in London potentially. I would say that I would eat my hat if that comes off, but I just don't know what to believe now...

 

I think this is becoming uncharted territory now, given the 40C+ modelling. Today is plenty warm enough under the clear, sunny skies as it's 29C / 84F here right now, so quite pleasant. I couldn't imagine what it would be like if we did reach 40-45C next weekend. At least it's a dry desert/med heat with minimal humidity. 

Edited July 10, 2022 by UK_Palms

[RyManUtah]

83F (28c) as the sun hits the garden. Currently on our way to 108F (42) this afternoon, followed by three even hotter days lol. 

[Foxpalms]

86f in London 32% humidity UV index 8 tomorrow is hotter. About 1 meter from my brick wall where the queen palm is planted is up to 90f definitely going to have cool that area down during the week end if it's 40c+ because of the nikau and archontophoenix.

[amh]

Just hit 106F.

[Xenon]

120F heat index LOL