What is your current yard temperature?

[JLM]

9 minutes ago, Xenon said:

120F heat index LOL

Yep, i cant comment on that.

[Collectorpalms]

Not sure if Death Valley feels this hot even when its HOT. Their low dewpoint lowers the feel like temperature. I have been To Vegas in September, and it felt cool. Just intense sun.

[Xenon]

The great west Houston inferno, look at those dew points 

[GeneAZ]

107 F in North Scottsdale, AZ, at 3:32 p.m.

[Tyrone]

6 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

86f in London 32% humidity UV index 8 tomorrow is hotter. About 1 meter from my brick wall where the queen palm is planted is up to 90f definitely going to have cool that area down during the week end if it's 40c+ because of the nikau and archontophoenix.

Id be getting some shadecloth ready for your nikau and Archontophoenix and get the hose around to the area ready to water them. More for the nikau really but it will keep the archontophoenix looking healthy too. Your queen probably wont notice it but water it heaps too. 

[Silas_Sancona]

Still the king of heat  ..Real  heat

4PM readings across the east valley..

[RyManUtah]

Home station in the shade is reading 108F 

it’s warm out there. 

[UK_Palms]

Max of 29.6C / 85F here on Sunday. That is perfectly warm enough for me here. Even the Scottish Highlands reached 29C! Kew Gardens in southwest London was the highest UK station at 31C / 88F but like many others, it isn't a SYNOP station that is shown on the chart below. This is only about half of the Met stations that are publicly visible SYNOP.

 

I'm seeing 41-42C on the German ICON model now too. Back when we had 38.7C in 2019, ICON only went for 37C I think, so that was almost 2C cooler than it actually was, and yet now it is a full 5C higher than ICON has ever gone before. ICON normally understates the max by 1-2C for us, which it could be doing here. In which case the high would be 43-44C potentially. 

This also shuts down the idea that GFS wasn't working properly then if other models are also showing 40C+ too. That's pretty concerning. Before this summer, no model had ever signalled for 40C+ here. GFS has backed off slightly in the past 2 quarterly runs, but it has yoyo'd quite a bit and is still showing about 40C. The next run will probably go up again like ICON has.

 

UK MET model has 25-26C isotherms at 850 feet moving over southeastern England on Sunday morning. Those isotherms may be as high as 27C by midday. That would likely equate to 43C / 110F highs at this time of year if the skies are clear all day too. I'm not saying this will happen, but it's definitely panic stations. Cross model support is growing by the hour.

 

Still plenty of uncertainty about this heatwave event, but on the low end I think we will be looking at 37-38C / 100F now at least really. If that is the best case scenario, I dread to think what the absolute worst case scenario would actually be!? Probably a localised 44-45C, although that will almost certainly never happen here. Given that 44-45C has actually been modelled though now on GFS, it must be a remote possibility here. I would think 42C would be the absolute maximum potential though given our latitude and the fact we are also an island off the Atlantic. There are clearly limiting factors present. Time will tell, I guess. This is both interesting and frightening at the same time!

[Samuel]

Currently 29c here in north London expecting around 31 later today will probably be the hottest day until the weekend where their is potential for 34+ And still no sign of rain been very dry recently tho I’m sure as always august will more then make up for it  

[Foxpalms]

90f in London 28% humdity UV index 8. Some very warm temps showing around Heathrow and Northolt area. The area my queen palm is in and more frost tender palms/ones that need more heat to grow well got up to 95f today, I designed that microclimate to be slightly  warmer but it's working better than I thought! For Sunday and Monday if we get above 37c would running a fan in that area as well as watering the plants heaps help cool it down? Here some photos of how hot the Heathrow and Northolt areas are today on wunderground.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Foxpalms

[Foxpalms]

@Samuel is that the iphone weather app? I find that to be pretty inaccurate by 1-2c sometimes for example today is 2c hotter here than that forecast is showing and probably 3c hotter in Heathrow and Northolt than that forecast. I also doubt central London will be 16c tonight even the BBC forecast is showing 18c tonight and they are also usually slightly off. For example that forecast on the iPhone said on Jan 6th the coldest night this year it would be -3c and it's only got to -0.9c in the coldest part of the garden and pretty much everywhere on wunderground for central London was showing between 0c to -1.5c. For Sunday and Monday it's still too far away to be sure but I would except the warmest parts to be atleast 37c+ if the GFS models are showing over 40c but we will have a better idea of the temperatures for the weekend around Friday.

[Xenon]

Demolishing the records...another hot day today, maybe a degree or two cooler 

https://spacecityweather.com/

[UK_Palms]

It's roasting here this afternoon. I have gone up to 33.9C / 93F now. The main heatwave is still 6/7 days away yet.

 

Southwest London temps looking pretty hot. 

 

It's not exactly a cool one ahead of the heatwave this weekend. We're still a good 6-7 days out from the main heat event and already mid-30's C / mid 90's F for some.

 

GFS now has Tuesday as the hottest day. Interestingly GFS had my forecasted max down today as 30C / 86F, which was a full 4C / 8F colder than it anticipated. GFS usually understates the high during summer by 1-2C / 3-5F for us here. That doesn't make pretty viewing for the forecast models. At least it's 'only' showing 41C / 106F on the latest operational chart. It has 40C forecasted for the day before as well. Again, it's likely understating the max if anything as GFS tends to do during summer here.

 

Here's the just updated GFS for Monday with 40C / 104F in London, which locally would mean 41C / 106F at Heathrow or Kew on Monday too. We can't be doing two consecutive days of 40C+ here. That's just stupid

 

 

Multiple fires burning here as I type this. Climate change coming to a town near you...

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

@UK_Palmsbecause a cold front is coming through on Wednesday and Thursday dropping the temps to 28 29c, still warm, the heat has to build up again that's probably why the 40c temps are now forecasted for Monday and Tuesday though Friday Saturday Sunday will still be in the 30s slowly increasing everyday. I got up to 91f in the end here at around 4.30pm. Metoffice said the highest temp today was at Northolt.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Foxpalms

[Silas_Sancona]

11:00AM temps:

Neighborhood station closest to the house:



Rest of the area: Remember, these are readings right around 11AM.. Some Neighborhood stations were already at 103-106F at 9AM..








Forecast is 113F today.. I won't be shocked if we add 2 or 4 degrees to the high later..  Waiting to see if any neighborhood stations exceed 118-121F later.  Dew point is currently 48Deg / Humidity around 12%





Looking away from the heat a sec:  ..Some things to watch:


Yesterday's SST readings in the Gulf of California.. Finally at the " magic " mark of 29C.. Can see good coverage of 30C readings  in the Central Gulf also.. Hopefully those increase in coverage. some 31C bits and pieces tucked along various spots along the coast of Mainland Mexico as well.



What does this mean to those not familiar?  When it comes to a higher opportunity for rainfall here in AZ during our Monsoon Season, it is critical that Sea Surface Temperatures reach / exceed 29C to help initiate " Gulf Surges "  Which are low level wind bursts which funnel moisture " up " the gulf  this time of year.

Overall  weather pattern in the Southwest in Summer helps create Higher pressure at the south end of the Gulf and lower pressure right around where the CA / AZ / Mexico Border is at the Northern end of the Gulf.  Wind will always try to move from High to Low pressure. In this case, those winds can move copious amounts of moisture into AZ and nearby California. Have started to see 80 / 80+ Dew Point readings showing up in the Northern Gulf  in some forecast runs.

Several studies  have shown that opportunities for beneficial rainfall occur more often when the Gulf is warm enough to support  deep Gulf Surges ( Moisture transported by shallow ones is more easily eroded by heating during the day )..  While 29C is a good sign,  other factors also have to come together..  That said,  for each degree higher  than 29C the Northern and Central Gulf reaches or exceeds, rainfall chances ( widespread rainfall.. ) increase quite a bit.   A " hot " Gulf of CA can translate into a wet summer for AZ ..and New Mexico, Nevada,  Utah,  and parts of  S. and Central Cal. to varying degrees,  depending how other important pieces of the overall " Monsoon Season " weather pattern evolve each day.





Something else to watch, particularly here and in S. Cal..   While no guarantee,  this scenario has been on the GFS runs for a few days,  though as usual, the position of this potential tropical system have varied..  Some runs place it more west, out in the Pacific, which would be a fairly normal outcome.. 

Today's 12z GFS position on the 20th:



12z GFS Position on the 23rd:



Other runs have had it flirting with ..or skirting either side of Baja, before killing it just south of Tijuana / San Diego.. 

I'm personally hoping for a straight shot up the Gulf and right overhead ..with maybe the center stalling over ..or slowly passing somewhere 10-20 miles southwest of Phoenix ( Flooding? please, lol )  then the bulk of what remains wandering west and getting stuck over S. Cal for a day or two..  We'll see..  No doubt this scenario could be a total bust,    ..or it could signal a good soaking for AZ  ..or somewhere nearby..

At the end of today's 12Z, there is yet another tropical system that may ..or may not   take aim at Baja later.   Regardless, While Cabo and other parts of Baja have seen tropical activity the last few years,  it has been quite sometime since we've seen the possibility for legit tropical system remnant- induced activity here..  Perhaps a touch early too..    Later in August- October are usually when moisture from tropical systems can add to monsoon season rain totals here..

Pretty sweet      ..if it pans out.. 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Silas_Sancona
edit

[Silas_Sancona]

Quick,  just past 1PM  update:  120?  later??










 

[RyManUtah]

44c (111.2F) 11%rh 

[sandgroper]

Was very cold this morning, 4c on my way to work. A bit warmer now heading for a sunny 19c.

[UK_Palms]

5 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

@UK_Palmsbecause a cold front is coming through on Wednesday and Thursday dropping the temps to 28 29c, still warm, the heat has to build up again that's probably why the 40c temps are now forecasted for Monday and Tuesday though Friday Saturday Sunday will still be in the 30s slowly increasing everyday. I got up to 91f in the end here at around 4.30pm. Metoffice said the highest temp today was at Northolt.

There's no escape from the heat this week. We're into mid-summer now so no complaints. If it does cool down to 28C / 82F midweek, it's just a trap for what else is yet to come in the subsequent days. Probably 40C / 105F. There is cross model support for a major heatwave event now. ECMWF is modelling 36-37C already, which will keep going up in coming days. UK Met is also modelling the hottest ever arguably at over 40C. It pretty much looks locked on and would take a drastic change in the models to prevent it now.

 

Another major heatwave is also being modelled the following week as well towards the end of month. I would still expect the hottest part of summer to come during the last 5 days of July and the first 10 days of August. That will need watching. The furthest GFS goes out to is July 25th and it has 38C / 100F modelled on it for then too. I saw some meteorologists tweeting about this 2nd heatwave which may be looming the following week. I can see July ending with an average high of like 30C / 86F or something ridiculous. This is 5-6 days after the 40C+ day(s). 

 

I remember last year I had my climate bio in my signature set as Csb due to the dry summers here. I had 2 people insist that I remove it as I am not warm-summer Med here. That Teegur guy who is based in Texas raised it arguing that I am Cfb. In theory I probably am, but fast forward a year and London/southern England is clearly running at full blown Csb again this summer. It has been since May and will continue to through August.

There is a clear absence of rainfall during the warmer months, especially from May - July and often until September, as well as low humidity and fairly warm temps, although it doesn't always run at Csb. It didn't last year for instance, although by my reckoning 4 out of the past 5 summers here have constituted Csb / warm-summer Med (2018, 2019, 2020, 2022).

I have also had people insist we are not transitioning towards a regular warm-summer Med climate in southeast England, which it almost certainly is. This year reminds me of 2018 when it was equally as dry, although temps will probably be higher this year with these 100F+ heatwaves looming. 2019 and 2020 were less dry overall, but still baking hot with summer droughts. Not typical Cfb summer's due to that absence of rainfall and low humidity.

Anyway it looks like a max of 32C / 90F again on Tuesday. The lowest max in the next 10 days is 27-28C in London. Still no rain either. 1.4 inches in the past 4 months is ridiculous. 

[Silas_Sancona]

Well... it's been an interesting rest of the afternoon ..haha


Had been tracking temps thru the afternoon before ..low and behold, the power went out... and stayed down until about an hour ago.  ..At the same time, appears there was just enough " umph " to push a decent outflow boundary out of the mountains and down into the area right around Sunset.. ( Another wild sunset again.. You know where to find the pictures once posted )

Unlike previous " attempts " so far this season, this one had a bit more bite.  No storms per - se, but some blast furnace wind, and big drops.. Still cloudy with spits roaming the valley atm. Some individual showers could grow deep enough to throw a few sparks, but, anticipate mainly more drops the rest of the evening... Just not enough energy to really stir things up tonight.

Before the power died, here are some of the neighborhood readings i caught around 2:30-3 PM.. Nearest station hit 117F,  but seems  115F will be the " official " reading for it..  Some 118 - 120F readings popped up here and there as well.  Phoenix officially hit 115F.

117F on 7 / 11.. interesting.. ( to me at least  ) One deg. hotter than the 116F last year on 7 /10. Storms around both evenings.  Rains ramped up after that night last year... We'll see what happens next  ..this year..












Still in the 102-106F range across this side of town at 8:36PM.

While storm activity may be limited to sporadic showers around town the rest of the evening,  Someone dropped a bomb over Sonora ( Mexico ) tonight.   Darker colors on this College of Dupage infrared image indicate colder cloud tops.. Once temperatures cross from blackish to white, that is a good sign of very cold cloud tops and very tall, energetic storms..  Some of that energy will likely get shoved into AZ tomorrow via Gravity waves ( which can spur new storms ). When Sonora starts exploding like this, storms of similar magnitude aren't too far off for AZ.




We'll see what Tuesday brings ..Hopefully no more mid day ( ..or any.. ) power outages. There were numerous others all over Phoenix today as well..

Lets be done w/ the heat and get on with the rain..

[Tyrone]

0C at sunrise. I had to get up and start my heater and fan at 2am as the temp was around 2.3C with a long time until sunrise. I'm over it. Almost a carbon copy tonight. I just want the high pressure zones to just disappear. 

[cbmnz]

2 hours ago, Tyrone said:

0C at sunrise. I had to get up and start my heater and fan at 2am as the temp was around 2.3C with a long time until sunrise. I'm over it. Almost a carbon copy tonight. I just want the high pressure zones to just disappear. 

A sensible approach is to make use of what canopy, buildings you have etc so that everything that is not fully hardly is permanently protected and you never need to take temporary measures. However, I always get spring and summer fever when the next winter seems so far away, and never stick to that sensible scheme!

[Foxpalms]

@UK_PalmsThe metoffice said London will be a Mediterranean climate by 2050 and have confirmed the summers are getting hotter and drier. The UK as a whole won't be a Mediterranean climate but the south east is expected to be Mediterranean. I have also noticed the summers are always drier than every other month it can still rain but there is definitely less rainfall. At the moment there is just not enough data to call London a Mediterranean climate but it's definitely heading that way and 10-15 more summers of this and we might need to be changed from oceanic to Mediterranean. Look at the average highs for Heathrow this year and the July max temps will continue to go up as we haven't even had the hottest weather yet. precipitation  has followed a Mediterranean pattern.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Foxpalms

[Samuel]

Topped out at 30c here in north London despite all the cloud looks like the chance of us breaking 40c has gone now thankfully most likely to peak around 36c which is very hot but not record breaking looks like their will be loads of cloud around with it as well (going by the latest gfs run)which will means stupidly warm nights 

[Samuel]

6 hours ago, Foxpalms said:

@UK_PalmsThe metoffice said London will be a Mediterranean climate by 2050 and have confirmed the summers are getting hotter and drier. The UK as a whole won't be a Mediterranean climate but the south east is expected to be Mediterranean. I have also noticed the summers are always drier than every other month it can still rain but there is definitely less rainfall. At the moment there is just not enough data to call London a Mediterranean climate but it's definitely heading that way and 10-15 more summers of this and we might need to be changed from oceanic to Mediterranean. Look at the average highs for Heathrow this year and the July max temps will continue to go up as we haven't even had the hottest weather yet. precipitation  has followed a Mediterranean pattern.

The met office said we would be Mediterranean already back in the late 80s London is just too cloudy to be considered summer med and to wet their is no sign our summers getting drier in fact it’s the opposite 

 

[Foxpalms]

@Samuelbut isn't that the data for England not London quite a big difference between London's climate and England's as a whole. I'm pretty sure cloud also has nothing to do with the a Mediterranean climate classification it's rainfall patterns. Even if it's getting wetter its lack of summer rainfall compared to the rest of the year that determines a med climate. Barcelona is a med climate but has more rainfall than London for example. It's not a huge difference now but still drier in the summer and if you look you can see that the difference between winter and lack of rainfall in the summer  become more and more apparent in the last 10 years for London. This is the rainfall data for London in the last 4 years.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Foxpalms

[Foxpalms]

Doesn't look wetter for London in summer, UK as a whole is getting wetter though I will agree with that.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Foxpalms

[Silas_Sancona]

111F at 5 - till 1PM Hot.  Not quite the nuke fest of yesterday and feels a touch more humid even though Dew Points/ Humidity are at similar values as 24 hours ago..



Confirmation on Cloud Top Temperatures over last night's Nuke blast over Sonora..   -119F / 84C?  ..Thats bleepin cold



This morning, the same MCC ( Mesoscale Convective Complex ) from last night took on a nice MCV  " swirl " as it moved into and across the Central Gulf.. 

If the Gulf of CA were wider, much better chance this thing could've tried to take on tropical characteristics ..compared to the other MCV the passed over Puerto Vallarta a few days ago.


Today's AZ Wx discussion from Forecaster Mike Leuthold:

https://arizonawrf.blogspot.com/2022/07/20220712.html

Storms starting to boil over in the mountains east of the valley,  and east of Tucson atm.  Fingers crossed for some real action here ..and in Tucson.. later. 

[Tyrone]

13 hours ago, cbmnz said:

A sensible approach is to make use of what canopy, buildings you have etc so that everything that is not fully hardly is permanently protected and you never need to take temporary measures. However, I always get spring and summer fever when the next winter seems so far away, and never stick to that sensible scheme!

Agree. I’ve put most of my sensitives in one area, but due to the flooding of 2021 most of my canopy trees in this area have slowly died. I’m in the process of removing the dead (about 40 30m tall Pinus radiata) and will plant up better canopy style plants in time, but I’m letting what’s left of the dead trees temporarily to remain to provide a smidgen of canopy. Most of my not so tender landscape has canopy and has done fine. I’m glad I didn’t put sensitive stuff everywhere here. The carnage would be horrible.  

[UK_Palms]

Max of 32.3C / 90F here today, despite extensive cloud cover limiting solar heating. Much more humid than yesterday too. Many places also experienced a 'tropical night' last night with temps not dropping below 20C / 68F. We have officially entered into the dog days of summer now. Things are only just getting started however. 

 

There's definitely going to be another 'tropical night' again tonight as temps are still 25C / 77F in London at 1am. I can't see them dropping below 21C / 70F there tonight.

 

ECMWF looks red hot for Tuesday, which is still a week away. Quite widespread 37-38C / 100F temps on a model that routinely understates the max by 2C / 5F during summer. This chart would produce 40C / 104F somewhere, although I expect ECMWF to scale it up a bit higher in the coming days on top of that. I wouldn't totally rule out 41-42C.

 

 

Some interesting observations ahead of the heatwave. Today reached 32C here under a 13C isotherm and plentiful cloud cover, which limited solar heating. Again it still reached 32C despite unfavourable conditions for temp spikes. On Monday we will have 25-26C isotherms (13C higher than today) and there will also be far less cloud cover allowing for more solar heating as well too. Taking that into account, the high would be somewhere in the region of 36C - 43C, depending on cloud cover. It will probably be about 40C / 105F in the warmest spots, but it has definite potential to go higher. BBC also modelling possible thunderstorms after the heat event as well, although I won't get my hopes up. We really need rain bad.

Edited July 13, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Silas_Sancona]

108F at 6:22PM


...Maybe some showers ..or maybe not..  CAPE ( = Convective Available Potential Energy.. Anything above 500-1000 is ideal for storms ) looks good in the mountains( CAPE Values above 800 ), not so much over the deserts ( Current values  mostly below 500 ).. Can outflow boundaries moving through town atm stir up the atmosphere overhead enough?

On a really good day, this  sideways " > "  satellite view ( = Storm activity essentially surrounding the low deserts and Phoenix from the North, East, and South ) would lead to big storms exploding directly overhead.




N.W. Mexico and Baja atm, for the heck of it..

[sandgroper]

Another cold morning, down to 3c on my way to work, still bright and sunny heading for a top of 22c, rain comes back tomorrow for the rest of the week.

[RyManUtah]

106F at 20:48. High of 110F (43c).
Rainbows over Arizona as the sun sets. 
Perfect summer evening. 

[Tyrone]

4 hours ago, sandgroper said:

Another cold morning, down to 3c on my way to work, still bright and sunny heading for a top of 22c, rain comes back tomorrow for the rest of the week.

That was colder than my 5C. I hope and it seems likely that that’s the end of the really cold nights for a while with the rain returning. We also seem to tap into some of that tropical moisture up near India in the coming days. The highs will still be hanging around but they’re kind of weakening in our part of the world to make room for some low pressure zones, thankfully. 

[UK_Palms]

3 hours ago, Tyrone said:

That was colder than my 5C. I hope and it seems likely that that’s the end of the really cold nights for a while with the rain returning. We also seem to tap into some of that tropical moisture up near India in the coming days. The highs will still be hanging around but they’re kind of weakening in our part of the world to make room for some low pressure zones, thankfully. 

You guys have had some pretty cold nights in recent days over there. At least it’s returning to normal now for you though. The low last night in London was the same as Perth’s maximum today with some street level locations not dropping below 22-23C last night. Talk about balmy.

GFS is still showing 39-40C for London this morning. That is a model that regularly understates the summer max by 1-2C here. @Foxpalms is going to need that shade cloth for his Nikau and Archontophoenix in London. My ones are in pots thankfully, so they can be moved out of direct sunlight.

The day before is also going to be 37C / 100F with an overnight low of 27C / 80F for London. That is going to be stress inducing for more tender specimens like Nikau. What is the hottest night you have experienced there @Tyrone as I know you have quite a few Nikau’s planted out?

Edited July 13, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Tyrone]

@UK_Palms I’ve never experienced a night above 19.8C down here. I had Nikaus in Perth and we would have minimums sometimes in summer around 26-28C and the nikaus survived but basically stopped growing in a heatwave. Mine were all fully shaded though. In full sun in the 40s and then high temp nights they would just die even when flooded with water. They can’t handle desert temps well.

[Foxpalms]

1 hour ago, Tyrone said:

@UK_Palms I’ve never experienced a night above 19.8C down here. I had Nikaus in Perth and we would have minimums sometimes in summer around 26-28C and the nikaus survived but basically stopped growing in a heatwave. Mine were all fully shaded though. In full sun in the 40s and then high temp nights they would just die even when flooded with water. They can’t handle desert temps well.

I guess I'm definitely going to have to cool that area then! My low last night was 22.7c tonight is cooler probably will bottom out at around 17c since the cold front is coming through. I can imagine Monday and Tuesday though it will be 36c+  at the least followed by a night in the low 20s possibly mid 20s I not sure about 27c but possible. Other than watering loads I might use a portable ac unit to cool that area down especially since they are in filtered sunlight not full shade so it gets hot in that area luckily not as warm as where my queen and banglow are. Anyway it's just gone 10.30pm and it's 69.1f/20.6c and 70% humdity.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Foxpalms

[sandgroper]

Very wet and rainy today heading for a top of 20c. That's a Mediterranean winter for you.

[cbmnz]

5 hours ago, Tyrone said:

@UK_Palms I’ve never experienced a night above 19.8C down here. I had Nikaus in Perth and we would have minimums sometimes in summer around 26-28C and the nikaus survived but basically stopped growing in a heatwave. Mine were all fully shaded though. In full sun in the 40s and then high temp nights they would just die even when flooded with water. They can’t handle desert temps well.

Mine handled a week of around 29-30C max with 21 to 23C overnight lows this past  February just fine, but that was partly cloudy days and high humidity.

[Silas_Sancona]

Not the biggest, or the strongest, ..at least in the neighborhood ( A section of the U.S. 60 that runs east - west across the east side of Phoenix is currently closed due to the freeway filling up w/ water )  but finally some action roaring back into parts of the East Valley tonight..   Still a few smaller storms to the southwest that could clip South Mountain and far west Chandler in the next hour or two if they hold together.


 Temp as of 9:30PM:



..Not to be out done by " Arizona ",  another BIG night across Western Mexico w/ massive storm complexes extending all the way to Puerto Vallarta.    Can see some other easterly wave - type activity that will make it's way west toward Mexico  and the U.S. Southwest from the Gulf of Mexico later.  Another wave descending south across Louisiana may " round the curve " and head west later as well. 


Perfect backdrop for tonight's Super Moon too..

As is typically the case after an active night, tomorrow could be a " down " day w/ little or no storms. That said, ideal flow in the atmosphere atm may spell another active night tomorrow..   Just have to wait and see.