What is your current yard temperature?

[bubba]

74°F at 7:47 AM EST. Happy Thanksgiving!

[RedRabbit]

7 hours ago, Ryland said:

Starting off the day with 6.4ºC (42ºF) from an overnight low of 6.0.  It's been solid winter weather here now for over a week with a run of 8 days below 10ºC (one day reached exactly 10) and my coldest of the season so far earlier this week - 6.1 high and 3.4 low.  The diurnal variation is tiny right now, most days being less than 4º difference - with one special day of 17 November, high of 8.7 and low of 8.1 making just 0.6º difference!  No wonder it feels cold all the time.

Looks like we have another run of 10º+ days coming up which will be nice, but it's very dark now with sunrise at 8am, sunset at 4pm.

I've noticed the discussion about weather units, which is making me wonder whether I should acquire some new kit for mine - it's always in full shade and against the garden wall away from the house so that I always have an exposed shade temperature, yet I consistently record some of the lowest high temperatures in the Manchester area (pretty average for low temperatures).  Mine's a Netatmo and they have rolled out a "shield" recently - one of those white slotted plastic boxes to go around the unit, keeping direct sunlight off while allowing airflow.  This would allow me to get it away from the garden wall (which, in addition to a little wooden rain roof I built, keeps it in shade) and into air that is heated by direct sun, with a bit more air movement.  I'm guessing that the shade temperature in a position that never gets sun is colder than the actual air temperature where the sun is doing its work - which is the real temperature after all.  What do you reckon @RedRabbit, anyone?

When it comes to weather stations, my opinion is your top priorities should be:

1.) Understanding how temperatures differ at different parts of your garden. Knowing this will help you site your palms better.

2.) Understanding how hot/cold it got over the years. This way, if you have a cold winter and your coconut palm dies, for example, then you’ll know how cold it was so you can plan better for it going forward.  If every year it gets to 35f, then one year it hits 20f, you’ll have a better understanding whether that’s the norm or more of an outlier. 
 

I don’t think your temperature relative to other areas of Manchester matters as much. Thermometers aren’t that accurate and you don’t know how the others are sited so it’s difficult to compare. Even if you did know your area is relatively warm or cold, it wouldn’t really matter unless you were considering moving. 
 

Anything to add @kinzyjr? 

Edited November 24, 2022 by RedRabbit

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 68-71F around the East Valley on Thanksgiving Day with some stiff breezes blowing off the Rim from the N.E. as a compact storm diving through eastern New Mexico heads toward Texas.  Unlike a similar "descending off the mountains" wind pattern that can occur this time of year in S. Cal., same " general" set up doesn't often bring us a heat wave.

As that storm to the east heads ...east, winds die down locally and usher in a nice weekend ahead.

Final days of the month / first few days of December ( ..and the start of Meteorological Winter in the N.H. ) are a little up in the air.. Cool-ish days continue, but models are all over the place regarding any chances for showers ...and/or higher elevation Snow chances.. Some model runs the last few days have been more bullish on both possibilities, while others back off and leave AZ mostly dry, ..esp. in the lower elevations across the central / southern parts of the state..



In a nutshell, what you see, is what you get ..albeit maybe a little cooler ...If things don't change much.

Two main things to watch as we head into the final month of 2022: PNA ( esp. for the western U.S. ) and the NAO ( esp. east of here... )

PNA looks to take another dip around the start of the month which, ...at the very least, means no big warm up is on the way ...mild days / cool nights continue -for now.. Otoh, that dip might bring some rain / decent snow chances, ...and maybe some frost threats,  depending on how far into Neg. territory it goes/ how long it stays there..



Until recent days, NAO has been hanging in mostly positive / positive side of neutral territory, but may make a hard turn south later.. which could mean a bigger pattern chance later ..if it does go into Neg. territory.   Been hearing whispers for the possibility of a big cold outbreak for the eastern U.S. after roughly the 5th of Dec. by some folks, but ..is just casual chatter for now. Gotta see which way the index goes first..



Judah Cohen will be releasing his thoughts on the winter ahead next week as well.. so, we'll see what Mr. Polar Vortex has to say. 

A link to his blog discussion from  Monday: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/


A look at Thanksgiving day / weekend last year, compared to today, via Accuweather data for Chandler..  Cooler this year for sure,  but not bad at all  ...Actually nicer this year since the house won't stay hot after cooking dinner, haha..

Thxgvng. 2021



Today and the forecast for tomorrow and Sat.

[GottmitAlex]

Thursday, November 24th, 2022

4:43PM PST 

25C / 77F

 

 

 

[kinzyjr]

11 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

When it comes to weather stations, my opinion is your top priorities should be:

1.) Understanding how temperatures differ at different parts of your garden. Knowing this will help you site your palms better.

2.) Understanding how hot/cold it got over the years. This way, if you have a cold winter and your coconut palm dies, for example, then you’ll know how cold it was so you can plan better for it going forward.  If every year it gets to 35f, then one year it hits 20f, you’ll have a better understanding whether that’s the norm or more of an outlier. 
 

I don’t think your temperature relative to other areas of Manchester matters as much. Thermometers aren’t that accurate and you don’t know how the others are sited so it’s difficult to compare. Even if you did know your area is relatively warm or cold, it wouldn’t really matter unless you were considering moving. 
 

Anything to add @kinzyjr? 

19 hours ago, Ryland said:

I've noticed the discussion about weather units, which is making me wonder whether I should acquire some new kit for mine - it's always in full shade and against the garden wall away from the house so that I always have an exposed shade temperature, yet I consistently record some of the lowest high temperatures in the Manchester area (pretty average for low temperatures).  Mine's a Netatmo and they have rolled out a "shield" recently - one of those white slotted plastic boxes to go around the unit, keeping direct sunlight off while allowing airflow.  This would allow me to get it away from the garden wall (which, in addition to a little wooden rain roof I built, keeps it in shade) and into air that is heated by direct sun, with a bit more air movement.  I'm guessing that the shade temperature in a position that never gets sun is colder than the actual air temperature where the sun is doing its work - which is the real temperature after all.  What do you reckon @RedRabbit, anyone?

My input is to get the radiation shield if you can.  If you want to put it in an area with full sun, then it will have less chance of giving you inaccurate high temperatures.  @RedRabbit summed up everything pretty well.  Buying a Davis Vantage Pro 2 for a little better accuracy is probably not worth the price tag unless you have money to burn.

It may not hurt to keep an extra sensor in the shaded area just to compare the readings for a while so you know approximately how much influence that had on your old readings.

[Tyrone]

Partly cloudy and 23C with a few drops of rain so far. Rain coming in this arvo. 

[GottmitAlex]

[bubba]

74°F at 7:21 AM EST

[Foxpalms]

It has been very cloudy today in London the max temperature today was 14c/57.2f. The low tonight is 12c/53.6f. It looks like we might be getting slightly below average temperatures in the first week of December because of north east winds, though no cold temperatures or frost in the forecast. The forecast looks much drier hopefully this very wet weather is coming to an end.

[sandgroper]

Spring finishes with a bit of warmth but it's been a lovely cool spring which suits me. Summer begins with a very mild 25c, again, suits me. 

[Foxpalms]

14c again in London as a max today it has been cloudy for most of the day with a bit of light rain. The low tonight is 9c since we have clear skies.

[Jimbean]

It's after 9pm and it's 76F with a 72F dewpoint.  Yet another case of it being cooler everywhere else in central Florida except on the east coast from Brevard southward.  This is the one time of the year where I'm actually jealous of people north of here and west of here. 

[kinzyjr]

Just below 70F after some much appreciated rain.  Downtown and just north of Memorial Blvd. got a good bit more rain than here tonight.  This has been the rainiest and most humid November I've experienced.  The number of days with humidity staying above 80% in our driest month has been pretty remarkable. 

The morning drive will be foggy tomorrow.

 

[UK_Palms]

Starting to really feel the chill here now. A low of just 7C / 44F last night but at midday today its only at 10C / 50F. No more rain today thankfully, after a load yesterday. This is already my wettest November on record and the wettest month I can remember. The total stands at 7.2 inches for me, which must be close to being my wettest month ever in this location. Plumpton, about 20 miles southeast of my location has recorded 16 inches this month though and that isn’t even counting yesterdays rainfall too.

It’s officially winter in a few days time now and the Esente Maurelii is still out, as are the pepper plants. It’s trying to push out a new spear as well. Goes to show how mild this autumn/fall has been. 

A big cold snap does appear to be on the way later this week though with the first week of December actually looking below average for a change. Potentially the first actual frost of the year for me too, depending on cloud cover next week. It looks like I will make it into December here in my inland rural location without reaching 0C / 32F yet though, hence the Esente not having any damage. London should escape any frosts next week due to the UHI.

The UK is fairly well protected being an island and surrounded by sea, with the Atlantic to our west, compared to the rest of the continent. Eastern, central and even Southern Europe may get hammered next week by the Arctic/Siberian cold mass. -25C isotherms descending through the Baltic into Poland and Lithuania! That will probably translate into lows of -18C / 0F for Eastern Europe if that comes off.  Take note if you are in Poland, Germany, Austria, eastern France etc.

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by UK_Palms

[Foxpalms]

53.2f in London today. So far the forecast for December looks cool and cloudy, but frost free hopefully it stays that way.

[JohnAndSancho]

No pics no details but it's SE Texas, so basically run the heater at night, car defrosters in the morning, and sweat like a goat after the sun comes up. This is stupid. 

[Xenon]

82F with a 73F dew point at noon. Humidity is surging in from the Gulf, "cold front" and more rain on the way. 80s back for the weekend and no real cold in sight 🙂

[GottmitAlex]

Noon, 11/29/22

19c

 

[GottmitAlex]

11/29/22

8:13PM PST 

Currently at 11C

Expecting to hit 8c as a low between now and tomorrow morning.

Brood lamps should turn on if and when that happens.

[bubba]

77°F at 7:19 AM EST

[Silas_Sancona]

A pleasant 69-72F around Chandler and the East Valley atm ( 3:13PM ) w/ some passing Cirrus.  Stays mild, w/ perhaps more clouds tomorrow / rest of the week / start of Dec. / Meteorological Winter, blah, blah, blah..

We'll see if any of the predicted storminess scheduled to head this way actually squeezes out a shower or two/ some snow for  the mountains / Nor. AZ.  We'll also see if more spots in the low desert might experience our first flirt with some patchy, brief frost chances of the season later next week.



California looks to take the brunt of what storms are forecast ahead ..A GREAT thing for some drought relief.. Great Basin / Rockies may get "some" snow, but again, don't hold your breath on Drought- busting totals.. Unless something changes of course..

Looking further out,

I know some folks are doing a little "Model  Hugging" when it comes to what a suggested deep dive by both the NAO and AO might spell for December..   Before anyone gets that panicked feeling, some perspective:

While there may be similarities -on a general scale- between such events ( 2010 keeps getting thrown around, perhaps a bit prematurely, imo ) As this tweet from Ben Noll a few days ago pointed out:  Each event is different..



I'd add the following points pointed out by a forecaster then, and by Judah Cohen in his AER Blog discussion today to the mix.. Judah adds in some insight from other significant -NAO events, and some info on what followed those..




https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/



Needless to say:  Something to watch, and see what evolves.. That's all.

 

[kinzyjr]

Got a little liquid sunshine earlier.  A lot more rain than a typical November.  We're usually bone dry.  Currently 65F with 95% humidity

[JohnAndSancho]

WeatherDoge is the best weather app ever. 

[Tyrone]

6 hours ago, JohnAndSancho said:

WeatherDoge is the best weather app ever. 

I love that weather app. Keep posting it. 

[Foxpalms]

52f/11.1c In London with 70% humidity. All the forecasts seem to be showing different temperatures, but it looks like there will be no frost. 

[Chester B]

Today could be the coldest since last winter.  40F/5C with a mix of sun and clouds.

[bubba]

75°F at 7:52 AM EST

[UK_Palms]

So cold here now. Well it’s 9C / 48F at 2pm, but it feels pretty cold after the year we have had. Still no frost yet but the impending freeze is imminent for Europe now. London may even get a frost next week! 🤣

The French Med would be significantly colder than the ‘English Med’ and London if this comes off. -10C / 14F just a few miles inland from Marseille. -3C / 26F at the coast even. -20C / -5F is modelled in parts of northeast France. You can see how the English Channel buffers the cold potential from coming across. Central London probably wouldn’t go below +2-3C / 35F under this scenario. Still we watch anxiously…

[Samuel]

2 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

So cold here now. Well it’s 9C / 48F at 2pm, but it feels pretty cold after the year we have had. Still no frost yet but the impending freeze is imminent for Europe now. London may even get a frost next week! 🤣

The French Med would be significantly colder than the ‘English Med’ and London if this comes off. -10C / 14F just a few miles inland from Marseille. -3C / 26F at the coast even. -20C / -5F is modelled in parts of northeast France. You can see how the English Channel buffers the cold potential from coming across. Central London probably wouldn’t go below +2-3C / 35F under this scenario. Still we watch anxiously…

The upcoming cold snap is certainly looking concerning it’s not looking too severe at this stage however constant days of 1-3c and night below freezing will damage/kill palms  also after a very wet November the ground is sodden so wet freezes are going to become an issue 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Samuel

[Samuel]

Just now, Samuel said:

The upcoming cold snap is certainly looking concerning it’s not looking too severe at this stage however constant days of 1-3c and night below freezing will damage/kill palms 

 

[Foxpalms]

58 minutes ago, Samuel said:

The upcoming cold snap is certainly looking concerning it’s not looking too severe at this stage however constant days of 1-3c and night below freezing will damage/kill palms  also after a very wet November the ground is sodden so wet freezes are going to become an issue 

For me it's the prolonged cold. It shouldn't go below freezing in central London unless the weather changes, but I wouldn't rule out a light frost at around 1-2c. Nothing that will be a concern for CIDPs or Washingtonia but things such as archontophoenix may get some burn, hopefully not. Currently there's 2 scenarios, the wind will return from the west of south of it will be even more prolonged and come from the north. It even around the 14th it's coming from the 14th that's not a good sign.

[GottmitAlex]

Dec 2nd, 2022 11:40 AM PST 

20c/68f

 

[Foxpalms]

44f in London now at 9.31PM.  The forecasts are all different so its hard to tell how cold it will be. 

You can Really see the temperature difference between mainland Cornwall and the Scilly isles tonight. I doubt they will go below 40f during this cold snap.

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Foxpalms

[GottmitAlex]

[JohnAndSancho]

On 12/1/2022 at 3:27 AM, Tyrone said:

I love that weather app. Keep posting it. 

Wow much sky. 

[Tyrone]

1 hour ago, JohnAndSancho said:

Wow much sky. 

Keep em coming. Lol

[JohnAndSancho]

12 minutes ago, Tyrone said:

Keep em coming. Lol

 Copy that homey, will do 

[Silas_Sancona]

A chilly, rainy day inbound.. Was supposed to reach the upper 60s-70 later, but highly doubt we'll reach 60.. ( 55F now )



Storm that looked to focus most of it's rain potential south of town / over Tucson has done what i'd expected and shifted north ..just enough that we could see some decent rain totals ...at least on this side of town. 30/40-ish miles away on the west side of Phoenix may see very little rain.

Overall setup is a little unusual, esp. in a La Nina winter:  Warm plume of tropical moisture moving N.E. through the area from the south central E.Pac.  If a little stronger / more snow pack on the ground up in the mountains atm as the rain moves in, this set up would be considered a "snow eater" and can lead to winter time flash / river flooding events in the lower elevations. As it stands, snow levels w/ this storm should stay above 8-10K ft. so very few spots in AZ will see much if any snowfall this time around. N part of the state might see a little snow if the next storm to pass by skirts the area w/ enough moisture next Wednesday. 

Aside from some minor rises on washes further east, maybe around Tucson where heavier rain falls, this rain event shouldn't cause much -if any- issues.

After things clear out, and a day or two of mild / drier weather, ..appears some cold mornings lurk beyond. We'll see how that plays out since the forecast beyond Monday hasn't been consistent.  Drier couple days between today / tomorrows rain, should dry things out a bit before any frost threatens, if it does.  Regardless, right on cue as the PNA bottoms out.

[GottmitAlex]

Dec 2nd, year of our Lord 2022

4:29 PM 

21c

 

 

[Silas_Sancona]

55F, foggy / drippy and still raining w/ more lining up on the radar for overnight and possibly into tomorrow morning.  It's like being back in San Jose, haha..



Considering the forecast just 24 hours ago, pretty impressed by how much this storm has over performed.. up to .63" here as of 6PM, w/ lots of .50" - .70" / .70"+ totals to the east / south.  Could easily surpass the earlier suggested .79" rainfall total by tomorrow AM here if heavier showers now approaching Yuma keep rolling our way for the next several hours.



Tucson was supposed to be the bullseye today, but watching the radar on and off thru the day, most of the heavier rain has stayed north of town.