Summer down under

[tropicbreeze]

Darwin's had its driest wet season in 27 years and highest average temperature on record. Only have records for my place going back about 15 years but it's the driest in that time. Strangely enough a cyclone formed to the north of us (out of season) over the past few days (near Timor) bringing cloud cover but no rain.  It's brought the temperatures down, yesterday only got up to just over 30C and next couple of days it's expected to be back up to 35C.  Minimums expected to bottom out at 18C and be back up to 23C in the next couple of days. The air is very dry though, even during the night RH doesn't go up high.

[cbmnz]

7 hours ago, tropicbreeze said:

Darwin's had its driest wet season in 27 years and highest average temperature on record. Only have records for my place going back about 15 years but it's the driest in that time. Strangely enough a cyclone formed to the north of us (out of season) over the past few days (near Timor) bringing cloud cover but no rain.  It's brought the temperatures down, yesterday only got up to just over 30C and next couple of days it's expected to be back up to 35C.  Minimums expected to bottom out at 18C and be back up to 23C in the next couple of days. The air is very dry though, even during the night RH doesn't go up high.

That will make the coming dry a test for some palms as I understand the dry season there is quite a stretch for some tropical species to get through.

[greysrigging]

1 hour ago, cbmnz said:

That will make the coming dry a test for some palms as I understand the dry season there is quite a stretch for some tropical species to get through.

We don't have dry season water restrictions here ( not yet anyways ) so most gardeners pour on the water with scant regard for the costs. Normally 5 months between rains so it does get a tad expensive. if the real equatorial species are not watered in the 'dry', well they don't survive.

[cbmnz]

11 hours ago, greysrigging said:

We don't have dry season water restrictions here ( not yet anyways ) so most gardeners pour on the water with scant regard for the costs. Normally 5 months between rains so it does get a tad expensive. if the real equatorial species are not watered in the 'dry', well they don't survive.

Oh ok. Garden size must be a consideration then. Even if you have a good sized plot, have to consider how large an area is practical to keep watered.

[Tyrone]

Winter starts here on Thursday. After days in the 20's and Wednesday being 24C the long range forecast shows rain and only teen maximums for the forecast period. At least with rain around the risk of frost is virtually eliminated for the time being.

It seems like the north has had a very dry wet this year. Not good.

[cbmnz]

Have had just 1mm for Jan here, after one of the driest years on record last year, just 700-750mm, average is over 1000.

And now the Hadley cell has arrived, most major models suggest no meaning rain for the rest of the month.  I've had to do a lot of watering today, As you can see the smoke all gone, air is now coming from the Pacific between here and South America and their aint no pollution sources out there as there aint no land at all.  All the bush you can see on higher ground in these photos is prime R. Sapida habitat, they dominate under the canopy.

 

 

 

[Tyrone]

On 1/12/2020 at 4:59 PM, cbmnz said:

Have had just 1mm for Jan here, after one of the driest years on record last year, just 700-750mm, average is over 1000.

And now the Hadley cell has arrived, most major models suggest no meaning rain for the rest of the month.  I've had to do a lot of watering today, As you can see the smoke all gone, air is now coming from the Pacific between here and South America and their aint no pollution sources out there as there aint no land at all.  All the bush you can see on higher ground in these photos is prime R. Sapida habitat, they dominate under the canopy.

 

 

 

It looks similar to here. It’s dry. We’ve had around 600mm in 2019 and the average is just above 900mm. December was dry and January continues the trend. A bit of rain coming on Thursday to Saturday and thunderstorms forecast in a weeks time. Max temp this summer was a 38C. Many mornings with mist and fog though as the rh gets around 98-100% humidity.

[cbmnz]

On 1/28/2020 at 12:46 PM, Tyrone said:

It looks similar to here. It’s dry. We’ve had around 600mm in 2019 and the average is just above 900mm. December was dry and January continues the trend. A bit of rain coming on Thursday to Saturday and thunderstorms forecast in a weeks time. Max temp this summer was a 38C. Many mornings with mist and fog though as the rh gets around 98-100% humidity.

It's got a lot worse since then. Last day of Jan tomorrow, will finish with only 9mm or rain, and there is nothing in the forecast for the first half of Feb. I broke my home station's record the other day with 33.5C (the nearest met station saw 31.4). Even the flats are barren now. 

My garden is fine as live on NZ largest river, fed from the huge Lake Taupo and now with individual properties metered there are no water restrictions, paying by the litre keeps usage manageable.  But hard on local farms as not an irrigation area.

 

 

[greysrigging]

Bring on the rain....latest sat pic central Australia

[sandgroper]

Funny weather we're having, only 24c in Perth today but by next Tuesday will be 40c! Even Hobart tomorrow is supposed to be 40c with 43c in Melbourne, that'll be horrible over there.

[greysrigging]

MELBOURNE 7-DAY WEATHER FORECAST

Summary	Thu Jan 30		Fri Jan 31		Sat Feb 1		Sun Feb 2		Mon Feb 3		Tue Feb 4		Wed Feb 5
	Sunny		Late thunder		Thunder- storms		Clearing shower		Cloudy		Mostly sunny		Sunny
Maximum	39°C		43°C		33°C		23°C		18°C		20°C		22°C
Minimum	17°C		21°C		23°C		14°C		12°C		11°C		11°C

[Daryl]

We're having a good 2020 so far...approx 350mm in January and warm, humid temps with minimums in mid twenties and maxes in low to mid thirties...palms are loving it!  A massive change compared to 2019!

[greysrigging]

How does anyone ever get used to the fluctuations in Hobart and Melbourne....talk about 4 reasons in one day !
 

HOBART 7-DAY WEATHER FORECAST

Summary	Thu Jan 30		Fri Jan 31		Sat Feb 1		Sun Feb 2		Mon Feb 3		Tue Feb 4		Wed Feb 5
	Mostly sunny		Rain developing		Showers		Late shower		Possible shower		Mostly sunny		Cloud increasing
Maximum	35°C		40°C		28°C		21°C		16°C		20°C		21°C
Minimum	18°C		16°C		23°C		13°C		10°C		9°C		11°C

[Tyrone]

3 hours ago, cbmnz said:

It's got a lot worse since then. Last day of Jan tomorrow, will finish with only 9mm or rain, and there is nothing in the forecast for the first half of Feb. I broke my home station's record the other day with 33.5C (the nearest met station saw 31.4). Even the flats are barren now. 

My garden is fine as live on NZ largest river, fed from the huge Lake Taupo and now with individual properties metered there are no water restrictions, paying by the litre keeps usage manageable.  But hard on local farms as not an irrigation area.

 

 

Wow. You’re drier than my area then. We had 10mm of rain today and I don’t think it got past 18C. It’s just below 13C at 9.20pm and it’s january. 

We did hit 38C in December which was the warmest in a few years.

Glad your water supply is secure. Keep watering those palms.

[greysrigging]

Oppressive day down in Victoria and Tasmania today
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/victoria-heatwave-settles-in-for-second-day-as-humidity-builds-bushfire-risk-increases/531002
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/oppressive-humid-conditions-for-southern-australia-as-heatwave-combines-with-tropical-airmass/531010t
And then, would you believe, snow forecast on the Tassie central highlands on Monday !

[cbmnz]

18 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Wow. You’re drier than my area then. We had 10mm of rain today and I don’t think it got past 18C. It’s just below 13C at 9.20pm and it’s january. 

We did hit 38C in December which was the warmest in a few years.

Glad your water supply is secure. Keep watering those palms.

Looks quite green around your area on satellite but very dry on streetview. Timing of when each of those was last taken, I guess. Some areas near me were last streetviewed in a very bad dry in 2013 and normally it's a shock to see it, except now it's almost as bad and I fear will surpass even 2013 if it does not rain till April again. 

[Tyrone]

3 hours ago, cbmnz said:

Looks quite green around your area on satellite but very dry on streetview. Timing of when each of those was last taken, I guess. Some areas near me were last streetviewed in a very bad dry in 2013 and normally it's a shock to see it, except now it's almost as bad and I fear will surpass even 2013 if it does not rain till April again. 

It would have to rain by April for you surely. 

Yes the street view was taken in the summer of 2014/15 which was the driest year on record here. It was followed by a very wet year.  Around 1200mm that year.

[Tyrone]

Looks like a cyclone will brew up over the NW in the next few days. Climate models are changing it's cross point and path every day, but so far they are putting it at a direct hot for Exmouth and Carnarvon and then it will follow the coast slightly inland before coming apart somewhere over the Murchison. Carnarvon may get the cyclone and then the Gascoyne river may flood. Meanwhile down here the tropics will warp a bit and hot inland dry heat will meet the south coast on Friday. My place is expecting 36C and low dew points. Yuck. Will have to make sure everything is hydrated by then.

[greysrigging]

Unbelievable !
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/summer-snow-in-tasmania/531021?fbclid=IwAR1j7bcIbkWgCPB29GQUe4kNeq1qFkkOO89fznBnKj3Dz9qkMvt90E2w08I

[cbmnz]

The Weather has gone ballistic here, so much to talk about on the weather talk forum it's hard to keep up.

Several North Island locations have smashed previous all time records by 2-3 degrees and recorded Australian like temperatures.

36.4 Whakatane, 37.5 Napier, 38.2 Gisbourne. 34.1 today in Whangarei on the skinny Northland peninsular normally regulated by the ocean on both sides.

The upper North Island is dangerously dry, large parts have had about 5-6mm of rain since the week before Christmas. And still nothing in sight,  another 10 days of a big fat high in the South Tasman sea, then maybe a change.

Down South by contrast is in a serious flooding emergency as I write, even Milford Sound one of the wettest places on earth had rain way beyond normal, trapping numbers of tourists including some who had to get onto the top bunks  as the DOC hut filled with flowing water beyond chest deep, tonight, a good part of the town of Gore is being evacuated as fears the local river will burst its banks.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/119250239/landslide-hits-fiordland-hut-trapping-31-people-as-heavy-rains-batter-south

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cbmnz]

[sandgroper]

4 minutes ago, cbmnz said:

The Weather has gone ballistic here, so much to talk about on the weather talk forum it's hard to keep up.

Several North Island locations have smashed previous all time records by 2-3 degrees and recorded Australian like temperatures.

36.4 Whakatane, 37.5 Napier, 38.2 Gisbourne. 34.1 today in Whangarei on the skinny Northland peninsular normally regulated by the ocean on both sides.

The upper North Island is dangerously dry, large parts have had about 5-6mm of rain since the week before Christmas. And still nothing in sight,  another 10 days of a big fat high in the South Tasman sea, then maybe a change.

Down South by contrast is in a serious flooding emergency as I write, even Milford Sound one of the wettest places on earth had rain way beyond normal, trapping numbers of tourists including some who had to get onto the top bunks  as the DOC hut filled with flowing water beyond chest deep, tonight, a good part of the town of Gore is being evacuated as fears the local river will burst its banks.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/119250239/landslide-hits-fiordland-hut-trapping-31-people-as-heavy-rains-batter-south

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's been on the news here in WA, the flooding is terrible.

[PalmCode]

Yes it's been a very dry summer here, even worse than last years. Not good.

[Tyrone]

Not good in NZ at all. 

We had thunderstorms and a bit of rain last night. Very humid at the moment. On Friday we are expecting around 37C and low humidity as a heat trough passes over from the north.

 

[Tyrone]

Just been looking at windy.com and the east coast of Australia is going to get a lot of rain and storms next week. First a low will come ashore along the NSW coast and then later on a cyclone up around Vanuatu New Caledonia way will come into the Tasman Sea. It's a bit too early to say with any certainty but at the moment it tracks the cyclone/tropical low to be coming down between Lord Howe Island and the east coast of NSW.

[Daryl]

Forecast is looking good here...

Thursday 6 February

Summary

Min 20

Max 26

Possible storm, heavy falls.

Possible rainfall: 60 to 100 mm

Chance of any rain: 95% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers and rain periods. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Winds south to southeasterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 7:50 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

7 day Town Forecasts

Precis Icon	Location	Min	Max
	Surfers Paradise	20	26
	Coolangatta	20	27
	Coomera	19	26
	Nerang	18	27
	Robina	19	26

Friday 7 February

Summary

Min 22

Max 28

Showers. Possible storm.

Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm

Chance of any rain: 90% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the early afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:00 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Saturday 8 February

Summary

Min 22

Max 28

Showers. Possible storm.

Possible rainfall: 10 to 25 mm

Chance of any rain: 90% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day then becoming light during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 7:50 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Sunday 9 February

Summary

Min 22

Max 27

Showers. Possible storm.

Possible rainfall: 20 to 45 mm

Chance of any rain: 90% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 25 km/h during the morning.

Monday 10 February

Summary

Min 22

Max 26

Showers. Possible storm.

Possible rainfall: 25 to 50 mm

Chance of any rain: 90% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h.

Tuesday 11 February

Summary

Min 22

Max 28

Showers.

Possible rainfall: 10 to 30 mm

Chance of any rain: 80% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming easterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.

Wednesday 12 February

Summary

Min 23

Max 28

Showers.

Possible rainfall: 10 to 30 mm

Chance of any rain: 80% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds becoming southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h during the day.

[Daryl]

Well, the forecast keeps changing...and it has been very wet here...very welcome rain for sure!

 

Forecast for the rest of Saturday

Summary

Max 28

Showers. Possible storm.

Possible rainfall: 70 to 100 mm

Chance of any rain: 95% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm, with possible heavy falls in the afternoon and evening. Light winds becoming east to southeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the morning then becoming light in the evening.

Fire Danger - Low-Moderate

Sun protection recommended from 7:50 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

Sunday 9 February

Summary

Min 22

Max 28

Showers. Possible storm.

Possible rainfall: 45 to 90 mm

Chance of any rain: 95% 

Gold Coast area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the middle of the day then becoming light in the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 7:50 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 14 [Extreme]

[sandgroper]

Wish it would rain in Perth, it's been very warm and humid this past week but no rain unfortunately. 

[greysrigging]

1 minute ago, sandgroper said:

Wish it would rain in Perth, it's been very warm and humid this past week but no rain unfortunately. 

Will you get anything on the tail end of the Cyclone ? i see its about to cross the coast at Dampier shortly. I suppose more likely to give the Gascoyne, Murchison and Goldfields a bit of a drink....

[sandgroper]

We may get a bit, we do sometimes but more often than not we just get high temperatures and high humidity for a week or so which just makes it pretty unpleasant.  Hoping for a bit if rain though, fingers crossed. 

[Tyrone]

Rain won’t make Perth. Most moisture will head out east of Kalgoorlie by the looks of it. 

[greysrigging]

On 2/9/2020 at 10:49 AM, Tyrone said:

Rain won’t make Perth. Most moisture will head out east of Kalgoorlie by the looks of it. 

My eldest son is at Koolyanobbing......reckons they're all wanting a bit of rain after last weeks hot spell

[greysrigging]

This pic and Dorothea McKellars poem... Australia !


I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror
The wide brown land for me!

[sandgroper]

10 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

This pic and Dorothea McKellars poem... Australia !


I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror
The wide brown land for me!

It's not an easy place to live at times, especially out bush but it gets in your veins, I wouldn't live anywhere else. My dad was an agricultural pilot so we were all over the country with his work, I lived in Broome and worked on the croc farm and then spent nearly 9 years in and around Exmouth. From Sydney to Whim Creek, I love it all.

[greysrigging]

2 minutes ago, sandgroper said:

It's not an easy place to live at times, especially out bush but it gets in your veins, I wouldn't live anywhere else. My dad was an agricultural pilot so we were all over the country with his work, I lived in Broome and worked on the croc farm and then spent nearly 9 years in and around Exmouth. From Sydney to Whim Creek, I love it all.

Same.... my work has taken me to every State  and Territory in Australia.... City and Bush......the good outweighs the bad.

[Tyrone]

Just been looking at windy.com. There's a cyclone up near New Caledonia at the moment which will slip in between Lord Howe Island and the NSW coast as time goes on. The rainfall on the mainland will be intense. From Brisbane down to southern NSW falls will be in excess of 150mm in the next 10 days. Batemans Bay will receive over 250mm in the next ten days according to the website. Maybe a bit early to predict it that far out, but its going to be a wet place on the east coast of Oz for a while. Those fires will be long extinguished after that rain comes through.

The biggest concern will be land slides. With the fire burning out the vegetation, some areas will have unstable hill sides. River estuaries would likely be a place to avoid as well.

It's never a dull moment in Australia.

[Tyrone]

On 2/8/2020 at 9:54 AM, sandgroper said:

We may get a bit, we do sometimes but more often than not we just get high temperatures and high humidity for a week or so which just makes it pretty unpleasant.  Hoping for a bit if rain though, fingers crossed. 

Even though Albany is further east than Perth, we have missed out on the rain from the cyclone completely. Esperance on the other hand will get the moisture as it pops out into the Bight and maybe South Australia will get a bit too. But the interior will be nice and green after a nice dumping. Millstream would be nice and wet. Great for Livistona alfredii.

[sandgroper]

As usual, we miss out again.

[cbmnz]

Just had another 30C+ cloudless day. This is getting into unknown territory now in terms of dryness. Lots of people on tank water have run dry and can't get a water delivery for up to 4 weeks.

Some hope for some rain next week now, based on the forecasts, but probably only 5 to 20mm.

 

[sandgroper]

48 minutes ago, cbmnz said:

Just had another 30C+ cloudless day. This is getting into unknown territory now in terms of dryness. Lots of people on tank water have run dry and can't get a water delivery for up to 4 weeks.

Some hope for some rain next week now, based on the forecasts, but probably only 5 to 20mm.

 

That's grim when your tanks run dry, had that happen quite a bit when I was a kid growing up in the bush, we used to have to get it delivered.