GFS and even EURO Model shows very significant cold in near future

[Sabal_Louisiana]

Curious to see what the next days GFS runs will show for potential (major?) arctic outbreaks last week of this January.

These models have been flip-flopping alot and overstating cold lately so dont lose sleep just yet but its looking ugly late Jan and maybe early Feb.

The 1800z run for Jan 18 has a fanciful nightmare scenario a long 10 days out with a historic 1062 mb high coming out of Canada with brunt of cold going into the eastern third of the US but even Texas would not be spared. Predicted low for Fla panhandle Jan 30 am at 10 F with snow in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.

Worse, Euro Model now picking up on this for 10 days out with Birmingham AL at or below zero F on the 28th - this showing at the end of the run.

Joe Bastradi is stoked on Twitter drawing comparisons with present scenario  to big arctic outbreak of Jan 85

Im really hoping a week from now I can look back at this feel a little foolish but just thought Id give a heads up.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Sabal_Louisiana
typo

[kinzyjr]

@Sabal_Louisiana If Joe Bastradi is correct, I can plan on seeing 20F this year.  If I get that, I don't know if I can protect coconuts well enough to get them to pull through.  Guess that will be 4 open spots in the garden LOL

[Estlander]

Accuweather apparently hasn’t got the memo yet. Nothing crazy in their forecast for my area on the panhandle. 

[Sabal_Louisiana]

I hope that holds - Accuweather is notoriously clueless on picking up significant cold weather changes more than a few days out. Then when it does, tends to go too low on temps.

They have a 90 day forecast but its mostly useless.

That said, model runs are running wild right now - trying to figure out what to do with the cold way up north. So maybe i wouldn't pay too much attention to any one model run or time frame on any forecast past a few days.

I really, really hope we can get by this winter without too much freezing weather here down south considering we're still recovering okay from last year's damage but I'll keep monitoring in case we do.

kinzyjr, lets think positive and then maybe you can post some pics of your coconuts this spring.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Estlander]

1 hour ago, Sabal_Louisiana said:

I hope that holds - Accuweather is notoriously clueless on picking up significant cold weather changes more than a few days out. Then when it does, tends to go too low on temps.

They have a 90 day forecast but its mostly useless.

That said, model runs are running wild right now - trying to figure out what to do with the cold way up north. So maybe i wouldn't pay too much attention to any one model run or time frame on any forecast past a few days.

I really, really hope we can get by this winter without too much freezing weather here down south considering we're still recovering okay from last year's damage but I'll keep monitoring in case we do.

I think you’re probably right about Accuweather long term forecast being useless. Thankfully weather.com 10-day forecast through Feb. 1 is not showing anything too crazy either with just  January 29th showing some potential of cold. 

 

 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Estlander

[Estlander]