Winter down under

[Exotic Life]

Lovely pictures from Tasmania even when I don't look winter at all. 

As UK Palms have stated we are heading to attempt number 2 of this year to break the all time heat record. 
We are only 2/3 days away and there is still a decent sign in several models on temperatures from 40-42C in the south of our country and also Belgium and parts of western Germany. That we will have two days 37-38C is more or less certain but it is now looking to the details if we can go even further than that. From the past it is really hard to break that 39C border. We have seen the past few years several times 40C in the forecasts, even this past June but in the end there was always to much wind, too much clouds, less heat at 850 HpA level. The only difference right now is that every day it becomes less unsure and little warmer. 

Forecast for the garden is 37-39C and Rotterdam 36-38C, some models are showing also 40C for my places.  Also the nighs are looking to be very warm, thursday night they still give 30C at midnight. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Exotic Life

[greysrigging]

Winter Warmth for Queensland - Snow for the NSW & Vic Alps!

Despite a big start to the season, the ski resorts will definitely be happy to receive another 10-20cm of snow over the alpine areas! This is thanks to a large, cold pool of air that will track over southeastern Australia over the coming days.

Meanwhile in Queensland it will be very different with above average maximums likely across much of the state during tomorrow (Tuesday) and Wednesday. That's thanks to a light W to NW flow drifting across helping to draw in warmth from northern Australia. Ipswich could nudge into the high 20s, which while not unheard of for July, is still well above average. Don't expect a huge difference in overnight minimums though unless you're close to the coast. The airmass is quite dry so that's going to result in cool nights persisting.

A southerly change will begin to push into Queensland by Thursday and this should begin to see temperatures fall closer to average once again later in the week.

 

 

 

[cbmnz]

Having clear days this week but not quite freezing at night. Sun seems to be getting stronger already, was positively pleasant in the sun today despite only being 14C, due to almost no wind. Taiwanese Cherry flowering already. Wondering if have already had my coldest night for the winter with that -2.0 C. Last winter did not go below 0 properly after July 4th which was unusual. August is on average warmer than June in my location which is opposite to the more coastal areas.  

[UK_Palms]

@Exotic Life Yeah, the heat is really building across western Europe this week. We already have 35C (95F) forecast tomorrow for London and then 37C (100F) forecast by Thursday, before it's finally cooling off. But the next 3 days are going to be very hot. Possibly 36-37C on Tuesday in places, and close to 40C on Thursday.  Similar to yourself. 

Clear skies at night should mean the temps fall away quite a bit, down to about 20C, but then the clear skies also mean that as soon as the sun comes up, it really starts heating up again. Very quickly. I still can't see any rain in the extended forecast either...

 

[UK_Palms]

Well, it is absolutely boiling here! 

BBC said it would reach 35C today, but London has hit 37C and I have just clocked 39C here today in the Guildford area. As I write this, it is still 34C at 7:30pm. Given that clouds and T-storms may move in tonight, I am anticipating an overnight low of just 24-25C tonight. Crazy for 51N latitude. 

Google weather is saying that it will be 39C (102F) on Thursday in London, and given that they underestimated the high for today, yet again (said it would be 35C), I am expecting my location to hit the 40C mark on Thursday. My area, to the southeast of London, seems to act as a massive heat sink between the valleys. Wisley, just down the road from me, is statistically the warmest place in the UK from June - August.

Some climate models are actually reporting possible highs of 41-42C for London on Thursday. I guess we'll have to wait and see...

[greysrigging]

Sydney is enduring a close to record warm spell for the month of July
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sydneys-record-mid-winter-warmth/529986
Spare a thought for Europe and the UK suffering another record breaking summer heatwave.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/heat-records-falling-in-europe/529984

[mdsonofthesouth]

@UK_Palms Maybe yall are getting the heat wave we just had. We did something like a week and half at 100F+ highs and lows in the 80s at my house. It began with typical mid 90s for a while, but thankfully now we are mid to high 80s and 70s at night. My son came out on the porch last night at 77F and said he felt COLD lol. Water plants and enjoy the awesome growing weather I say!

[greysrigging]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/07/25/uk-heatwave-britain-bracing-hottest-day-record-temperature-could/

[greysrigging]

Another bunch of winter warmth records fall....

[Tyrone]

Its been more like Spring than winter here in southern WA this July. I can't get over how much mild sunny weather we've had. All the deciduous stuff is now into bud burst. A bit early. Hopefully we have a wet warm spring.

[sandgroper]

It's been a beautiful week in Perth, we're going to get a bit of rain next weekend but the temps are still quite nice.

[UK_Palms]

14 hours ago, Tyrone said:

Its been more like Spring than winter here in southern WA this July. I can't get over how much mild sunny weather we've had. All the deciduous stuff is now into bud burst. A bit early. Hopefully we have a wet warm spring.

Just curious, but do you guys have slugs and snails in Perth & the southeast of WA? I don't recall seeing any molluscs during the 3 months that I was there in late winter and early spring. 

In my neck of the woods, a wet, warm spring is far from ideal. The slimy sods will come out in full force and attack everything. A few years ago, I put 10 cannabis plants outdoors in early May and the slugs & snails got the lot within a week. I had slug pellets down as well. Likewise, they have decimated my tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers etc in recent years too. They can be a real problem here. 

Although there have barely been any slugs this year to be honest. I think due to the record dry spring that we had. I have maybe only seen 10-20% of the usual amount we get around here... 

[sandgroper]

Plenty of snails and slugs right around Australia including the desert areas, they come to life with a bit of moisture. Bobtail goannas in the backyard do a good job on them but goannas also like tomatoes and strawberries too.

[Tyrone]

Plenty of slugs and snails here. However my little plot has their numbers knocked down by the resident wild ducks, herons, magpies, falcons that hang around in large numbers. If it wasnt for them it would be very bad. 

[greysrigging]

Slugs and snails rampant in my mothers garden in NSW..... but none whatsoever in my Darwin garden ( but every other plant chomping critter known to man.... sigh ! )

[UK_Palms]

@greysrigging You should throw a couple of them on the barbie, mate...

Cook until nice and crispy, then add to a fresh salad. Or straight into a burger bun.

Delicious.  

[cbmnz]

Snow falling to sea level on the usually milder South Island West Coast today. But looks like won't get any frost from this event in most of North Island due to no break in the winds. 

[greysrigging]

The best cold snap of the winter forecast for the coming weekend...
 

Intense Polar Low To Impact Eastern Australia!

Cyclonic winds (SA)
Widespread Gales (SA/VIC/NSW)
Low Level Snow (SA/VIC/NSW/TAS)
Significant Bushfire Dangers (QLD/NSW)

This next system is a doozy! It's going to push a MASSIVE injection of cold air a long way northwards - and much further north than the average cold front. This is thanks to a powerful polar low that will track just south of South Australia and push into Bass Strait before intensifying further as it pushes into the southern Tasman generating widespread galeforce west to southwest winds that will sweep cold air a long way north! Parts of the southeastern areas of South Australia are likely to experience widespread damaging wind gusts of 90-110km/h, though higher gusts are possible depending on where the low moves.

And there's a LOT of cold air to spread with very cold 850mb temperatures occurring across Victoria meaning low level snow is likely (and you couldn't rule out some snow flurries in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne!) Even the Adelaide Hills region has a reasonable chance of some flurries.

There's a lot of cold air in NSW - but snow will depend on moisture which can be a little fickle. At the least, expect heavy snow (possibly half a metre or more!) to occur around the Victorian and NSW alpine areas and snow is also likely around the Central Tablelands west of Sydney. If enough moisture can extend north then snow is possible up to the NSW/QLD border but that's still a few days away and is subject to some variability.

Of course, it sounds odd with all this cold air that bushfires may be a concern - but with the awful drought in northern NSW & southern Queensland and expected above average temperatures before the front sweeps through we're likely to see significant bushfire dangers occur with those strong winds. Strong winds should persist even after the cold air moves through which is likely to maintain a prolonged bushfire danger period.

[cbmnz]

On 8/6/2019 at 12:46 PM, greysrigging said:

The best cold snap of the winter forecast for the coming weekend...
 

Intense Polar Low To Impact Eastern Australia!

Cyclonic winds (SA)
Widespread Gales (SA/VIC/NSW)
Low Level Snow (SA/VIC/NSW/TAS)
Significant Bushfire Dangers (QLD/NSW)

This next system is a doozy! It's going to push a MASSIVE injection of cold air a long way northwards - and much further north than the average cold front. This is thanks to a powerful polar low that will track just south of South Australia and push into Bass Strait before intensifying further as it pushes into the southern Tasman generating widespread galeforce west to southwest winds that will sweep cold air a long way north! Parts of the southeastern areas of South Australia are likely to experience widespread damaging wind gusts of 90-110km/h, though higher gusts are possible depending on where the low moves.

And there's a LOT of cold air to spread with very cold 850mb temperatures occurring across Victoria meaning low level snow is likely (and you couldn't rule out some snow flurries in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne!) Even the Adelaide Hills region has a reasonable chance of some flurries.

There's a lot of cold air in NSW - but snow will depend on moisture which can be a little fickle. At the least, expect heavy snow (possibly half a metre or more!) to occur around the Victorian and NSW alpine areas and snow is also likely around the Central Tablelands west of Sydney. If enough moisture can extend north then snow is possible up to the NSW/QLD border but that's still a few days away and is subject to some variability.

Of course, it sounds odd with all this cold air that bushfires may be a concern - but with the awful drought in northern NSW & southern Queensland and expected above average temperatures before the front sweeps through we're likely to see significant bushfire dangers occur with those strong winds. Strong winds should persist even after the cold air moves through which is likely to maintain a prolonged bushfire danger period.

Looks like we don't get much cold from this system. SE Australia must be having another good ski season. Seem to be in a run of those after a period of lean years.

[Tyrone]

Early spring here in southern WA. We had 21C here today but the rain will return tomorrow. My main lake is pretty much full and about to flow out the other end. Haven’t had any frost since June and even then it was very mild with no crispness on the lawn within about 15m of a tree. I’ve got many palms opening new leaves. I’m hoping that the risk of any frost will have passed by now. Spring is just over a couple of weeks away.

[sandgroper]

Was 25c here yesterday but raining this morning, you can feel a definite change in the weather.

[greysrigging]

 

[greysrigging]

Eminent Australian climatologist Blair Trewin explains last weekends cold outbreak in SE Australia
https://theconversation.com/snow-at-the-footy-just-how-unusual-was-last-weekends-weather-121802?fbclid=IwAR2H6pELiJSIcni1IBSB2O04MpERFOh2O5oxhAsb0hCwt4xd70TZpFAB7WA

[greysrigging]

Gunna be a bit nippy 'round your way this weekend Tyrone.....?
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/best-snowfall-in-years-expected-on-was-highest-peaks-this-weekend/530077

[Tyrone]

37 minutes ago, greysrigging said:

Gunna be a bit nippy 'round your way this weekend Tyrone.....?
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/best-snowfall-in-years-expected-on-was-highest-peaks-this-weekend/530077

You beat me too it. Was going to post the link up.

Yes Saturday will be cold and wet. The Porongorups are about 40kms from me so we may take a run up there on Saturday to see if it’s snowed there. I’ve never seen snow before in my life. 

I wont bother with the Stirling Ranges though. Too many people come down from Perth when it snows and the queue in is kms long.

[Tyrone]

The Porongorups today which is sunny and mild. It may look different on Saturday. Could be snow capped. 

[greysrigging]

How are the Porongorups looking today ? Snow ?
This is a pic my son took earlier this morning at Koolyanobbing after a vigorous cold front and associated hail.

[sandgroper]

Bloody cold in Perth today!

[Tyrone]

10 hours ago, greysrigging said:

How are the Porongorups looking today ? Snow ?
This is a pic my son took earlier this morning at Koolyanobbing after a vigorous cold front and associated hail.

The Stirling Ranges got snow on Bluff Knoll at nearly 1100m asl but it just wasn’t cold enough for the Porongorups to get it at a lower elevation. It certainly was cold wet and blowy today with a top of 13.3C and about 30mm of rain but nowhere near the coldest we can get down here. We had one day back in late April that sat around 8C for most of the day. That is really cold even this far south in WA.

[Tyrone]

Itll feel like Spring tomorrow on the south coast. Albany is going for 21C then 22C. Im down in bremer bay and on thursday it will be 24C. Its august!

[Pip]

Winter can go away now. I was pelted by hail stones late afternoon sunday while locking up my chickens. It apparently snowed on the higher parts of the Adelaide hills. Ice on the roads caused a little kaos for drivers who almost never experience it in my region. 

[Tyrone]

21 hours ago, Pip said:

Winter can go away now. I was pelted by hail stones late afternoon sunday while locking up my chickens. It apparently snowed on the higher parts of the Adelaide hills. Ice on the roads caused a little kaos for drivers who almost never experience it in my region. 

You got what we had last Friday and Saturday.

 

 

[Tyrone]

23C sunny and blowing gusty winds at the moment. Forecast top of 13C tomorrow and rain. 

[cbmnz]

Lots of talk in the dedicated weather forums about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event predicted to peak in a few days. But noone can say what it really means for us in the populated 30's and 40's latitude zones  . Much rarer down here than the Northern hemisphere apparently , the last major one was 2002. That year October was Sunny but below average temperatures in my region. One night in October hit a low of exactly 0C.

I've had no frost since early July, think my R. Sapida and Bangalow are safely through now.  Only a -4C / 25F frost mid winter would have put them in any danger and have not had one of those since 2015.

[UK_Palms]

On 8/23/2019 at 10:07 AM, cbmnz said:

Lots of talk in the dedicated weather forums about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event predicted to peak in a few days. But noone can say what it really means for us in the populated 30's and 40's latitude zones  . Much rarer down here than the Northern hemisphere apparently , the last major one was 2002. That year October was Sunny but below average temperatures in my region. One night in October hit a low of exactly 0C.

I've had no frost since early July, think my R. Sapida and Bangalow are safely through now.  Only a -4C / 25F frost mid winter would have put them in any danger and have not had one of those since 2015.

Am I right in thinking that the sudden stratospheric warming is supposed to create colder air in places, where the warm air rises?

Just wondering, because we have entered another heatwave here. It's currently 35C here right now and might hit 37-38C over the next two days. No sign of any rain over the next 2 weeks either. So it's an abnormally warm end to summer, given that the first 3 weeks of August were crap. Soaking wet and cool. But now it's baking hot...

[Tyrone]

I haven’t had frost here for weeks as well and the likelihood of frost now is probably over. Been a mild winter and everything just kept growing with zero cold damage. Even my Pinanga coronata is coming back well from a bad freeze in 2017.

[sandgroper]

1 hour ago, UK_Palms said:

Am I right in thinking that the sudden stratospheric warming is supposed to create colder air in places, where the warm air rises?

Just wondering, because we have entered another heatwave here. It's currently 35C here right now and might hit 37-38C over the next two days. No sign of any rain over the next 2 weeks either. So it's an abnormally warm end to summer, given that the first 3 weeks of August were crap. Soaking wet and cool. But now it's baking hot...

Is this anywhere near you? Might be a bit cooler.

[UK_Palms]

@sandgroper No, that appears to be somewhere up north. I am located just southeast of London. Almost on the boundary of suburban London. The closest big town to me is Guildford. 

I have just clocked a high of 36.1C here today at 4:10pm. Absolutely sweltering. We only had a high of 31C forecast for today, so we exceeded that by 5 degrees C.

The August record could be at threat on Monday in the south with some models forecasting 37-38C in places. The current August record stands at 38.5C, but I don't think we'll beat it.

 

Edited August 24, 2019 by UK_Palms

[cbmnz]

20 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

Am I right in thinking that the sudden stratospheric warming is supposed to create colder air in places, where the warm air rises?

Just wondering, because we have entered another heatwave here. It's currently 35C here right now and might hit 37-38C over the next two days. No sign of any rain over the next 2 weeks either. So it's an abnormally warm end to summer, given that the first 3 weeks of August were crap. Soaking wet and cool. But now it's baking hot...

The only consensus is that when/if it propagates down into the troposphere it will disturb the jet stream possibly resulting in polar air spilling vigorously into the middle lats, but if that happens only over the open ocean then will be of minimal consequence. There are only three land masses down here beyond latitude 34.

[UK_Palms]

3 minutes ago, cbmnz said:

The only consensus is that when/if it propagates down into the troposphere it will disturb the jet stream possibly resulting in polar air spilling vigorously into the middle lats, but if that happens only over the open ocean then will be of minimal consequence. There are only three land masses down here beyond latitude 34.

Oh right, fair enough. I suppose such a situation causes way more problems in winter than in summer...

It's already 25C here at 09:45am, off the back of a 13C low. I wonder how warm it will max out at this afternoon? I'm expecting 34-35C again here, but might see higher...