Spring/Summer drought in southern England and northwestern Europe.

[sipalms]

10 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

@sipalms Will you chill out.
 

The southeast coastal areas average 1,900 hours of sunshine annually and have been as high as 2,100 before. So what I have been saying is not as far fetched as you are making out. Also I was referring to 2020 as a whole, as in Jan 1st - December 31st) not the past 12 months up until now. You’re quoting July 2019 - July 2020.
 

I was watching a BBC weather report the other day, working in conjunction with the Met Office, and they said Eastbourne and Brighton are on course for up to 2,300 hours of sunshine for 2020, following the record levels of spring sunshine, and assuming the warm, dry trend continues throughout August and possibly into September. 

Again you are taking things out of context as I was talking about the year 2020 as a whole, not the past 12 months up to now, which you are quoting. I accept London won’t see the same levels of sunlight that the southeast coast does, and it almost certainly won’t reach 2,300 hours, but London does appear to be on course for 2,100 hours of sunlight as well in 2020 looking at this year’s trajectory, helped obviously by the 700+ hours in spring alone. Again, Eastbourne, Brighton, Bognor and Ventnor look set to reach at least 2,2000 hours (taking into account the long-term forecasts). 

You can pull up whatever figures you like to cover the past 11-12 months, but we’ll see what figures the southeast coast and London finish on for 2020 as a whole, come Dec 31st. If places like Eastbourne, Hastings, Brighton, Ventnor etc are miles off the 2,200 - 2,300 figure, you can say rightfully say ‘I told you so’ and I will admit that I should have listened to you. Until then just chill out and see how the next few months pan out here, weather-wise...

I'm sorry mate but do you even have any logic or knowledge of data/statistics/averages/rolling totals/ or any basic mathematical reasoning at all???

• Firstly, you specifically mentioned London - "On the current trajectory, London and the southeast may finish the year on 2,300 sunshine hours."   So don't try change the location to somewhere else now. And until I get my UK Climate data login approved (which should be any day unless they decide to block me out!), London Heathrow was the most available official data.
• Now, onto 'rolling' annual data. Just like with accounting and finance, climate data can be interpreted accurately in a 'rolling' sense, particularly if one is seeking to determine what a dataset is 'on track' to achieve/record for a calendar year. In fact, with no one on earth able to accurately predict the future, it is one of the most level-headed ways of seeing how things are progressing. I doubt many on this entire forum would argue with that. Unless, things get very extreme very quick, it is a pretty accurate way.

So with that said, London has a rolling year of total 1713 hours of sunshine which frankly is very average. You're saying 'wait until December 31st' - I'm quite okay with that, but remember, you're then implying that London will have an extremely (I mean unheard of extreme) high amount of sunshine between now and December 31st. Here's how that would look;

January to June 2020, London Heathrow = 978.9 hours of sunshine.

July to December 2019, London Heathrow = 734 hours of sunshine

Required recorded sunshine at London Heathrow, July to December 2020, in order to reach 2,300 hours of sunshine = 1,321 hours of sunshine

Surely you could see this is absurd, impossible perhaps?

Once I get the data, I'll do a study into the sunniest location in Southeastern UK - if you could advise exactly where that is? You mention Eastbourne, Brighton, Bognor and Ventnor so I'll see what I can find. You've sure given me a great reason to study the climate and sunshine stats in greater detail as we progress through 2020.

The key thing I'm trying to point out here, Mr @UK_Palms, is not to make wildly fanciful claims based on what you 'wish' was the case in your location, in order to aggrandize the UK's climate. 

 

[sipalms]

On 7/18/2020 at 2:07 PM, UK_Palms said:

@UK_Palms Where is this picture that you said you took in the UK??

Bush clad volcanic cones like this are quite unique.

[SubarcticUK]

6 minutes ago, sipalms said:

@UK_Palms Where is this picture that you said you took in the UK??

Bush clad volcanic cones like this are quite unique.

Exactly. Lots of volcanic cones and buttes exist here in Oregon, Washington, and northern California - even right here in Portland. 

I am not aware of any of them on the southern coast of the UK. There are volcanic features up in the northern UK, but that is not the region supposedly pictured here.

Also, about your earlier post, the sunniest location in the UK that I know of is Shanklin which averages 1923 sun hours per year.

[UK_Palms]

11 hours ago, sipalms said:

@UK_Palms Where is this picture that you said you took in the UK??

Bush clad volcanic cones like this are quite unique.

The post you are referring to... I specifically state that not all the photos are my own. About half were ones that I actually took. In that post I was uploading photos to show the southern coastline and the geography of the area (Cornwall, Dorset Devon etc) as well as inland areas, further north), which I had fished at (relevant to previous posts). 
 

That photo in question is from from an inland area, up north, which was discussed as length previously. And no, it isn’t one that I took. It is from a national park, close to where I had fished. Again I was showcasing the geography, in response to your comments and clearly stated that not all pics are my own. 

From now on I will just stick to posting about the drought situation here, and that alone, although I suspect you will take issue with that as well, which you did originally. Can we just agree to disagree, or at least just be civil from here on...
 

It is extremely dry here right now. Like SO dry. I will continue to document the drought issue as that was the original topic of this thread...

 

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by UK_Palms

[sipalms]

6 hours ago, UK_Palms said:

That photo in question is from from an inland area, up north, which was discussed as length previously. And no, it isn’t one that I took. It is from a national park, close to where I had fished. Again I was showcasing the geography, in response to your comments and clearly stated that not all pics are my own. 

From now on I will just stick to posting about the drought situation here, and that alone, although I suspect you will take issue with that as well, which you did originally. Can we just agree to disagree, or at least just be civil from here on...

That picture, is not in the UK at all.

No, I'm not going to agree to let you post whatever misinformation you like on here and tell any doubters to F off. You've been proved wrong on so many counts with actual data, and you've posted fake photos in fake locations and lied non stop. 

It's funny how you never post any BS on the Euro Palm Forum, that would he far to risky in front of your compatriots.

[UK_Palms]

@sipalms Look, I'm trying to be civil with you, as per my last post. I'm not telling anybody to "F off", so again you are taking things out of context. Will you please just chill out. I have just said that I will stick to documenting the drought and weather, and that only now.

Every single thing I have posted you have had a problem with, whether that is the drought in general, my temperature recordings, local temperature recordings, stats in general, the photos posted, annual sunshine hour projections for this year etc. It doesn't matter what I post, you try to scrutinise it, or take it out of context. You have done since the very beginning. Funny enough you suddenly started up again recently when we had that 100F day here. If one of the Met Office 'official' stations hadn't picked it up, you would have been disputing that recording on here. 

As I have previously said, I have spent time off the coast of Devon, fishing, and up waterways taking pics. I have also been up to the Lake District as well during that time. The picture you are referring to as being a 'volcano' is from a NP up north, but not my own. I was replying to a comment about the UK terrain in general. I should have just kept this thread about the drought and weather though in general, which is what I am going to do from now on. I take full responsibility for this thread deviating off topic and the agro that has been generated. But I will keep it strictly about the drought and weather from here on.

 

On 8/4/2020 at 12:20 AM, sipalms said:

I'm sorry mate but do you even have any logic or knowledge of data/statistics/averages/rolling totals/ or any basic mathematical reasoning at all???

• Firstly, you specifically mentioned London - "On the current trajectory, London and the southeast may finish the year on 2,300 sunshine hours."   So don't try change the location to somewhere else now. And until I get my UK Climate data login approved (which should be any day unless they decide to block me out!), London Heathrow was the most available official data.
• Now, onto 'rolling' annual data. Just like with accounting and finance, climate data can be interpreted accurately in a 'rolling' sense, particularly if one is seeking to determine what a dataset is 'on track' to achieve/record for a calendar year. In fact, with no one on earth able to accurately predict the future, it is one of the most level-headed ways of seeing how things are progressing. I doubt many on this entire forum would argue with that. Unless, things get very extreme very quick, it is a pretty accurate way.

So with that said, London has a rolling year of total 1713 hours of sunshine which frankly is very average. You're saying 'wait until December 31st' - I'm quite okay with that, but remember, you're then implying that London will have an extremely (I mean unheard of extreme) high amount of sunshine between now and December 31st. Here's how that would look;

January to June 2020, London Heathrow = 978.9 hours of sunshine.

July to December 2019, London Heathrow = 734 hours of sunshine

Required recorded sunshine at London Heathrow, July to December 2020, in order to reach 2,300 hours of sunshine = 1,321 hours of sunshine

Surely you could see this is absurd, impossible perhaps?

Once I get the data, I'll do a study into the sunniest location in Southeastern UK - if you could advise exactly where that is? You mention Eastbourne, Brighton, Bognor and Ventnor so I'll see what I can find. You've sure given me a great reason to study the climate and sunshine stats in greater detail as we progress through 2020.

The key thing I'm trying to point out here, Mr @UK_Palms, is not to make wildly fanciful claims based on what you 'wish' was the case in your location, in order to aggrandize the UK's climate. 

 

Okay, I shouldn't have mentioned London as they obviously don't receive the same degree of sunshine hours as the coastal regions to the south. Although I suspect the inland regions of the southeast will still receive far more than 1,713 hours of sunshine for 2020. I guess we will see come the end of the year. 

I don't have the official statistics, but I seem to recall the Met forecasters (on the BBC) saying that Eastbourne has already recorded 1,400 hours of sunshine in 2020 (750+ hours in spring). This was about 10 days ago. If August continues to be sunny and very dry, as does September (as forecast), I can see the coastal regions being on course for at least 2,200 hours. I could be wrong about that though and the figure may be lower, or higher for that matter. By all means do your research and do correct me if I am wrong, but please be polite about it. 

According to the Met Office, Shanklin on the Isle of Wight is the sunniest location with 1,923 hours annually, as mentioned by SubarcticUK. However, I think Chichester may be slightly higher at 1,930 hours, depending on the source (some say 1,920), but the Met Office does not have any data for Chichester. 

Bognor Regis is another contender, having recorded 2,237 hours of sunshine in 1990, but the Met Office only lists it as averaging 1,920 hours of sunshine annually, so 3 hours less than Shanklin. However, I reckon it is sunnier than Shanklin on average these days, especially in recent years. Bognor might hold the record for highest annual sunshine hours at 2,237, assuming nowhere else has eclipsed this. I doubt it, but I'm not sure.

One place to look at, if possible, may be Selsey as I remember the Met Office or BBC saying they received roughly 2,200 hours of sunshine in 2018 and 2019 (I think). I can't find any sources for their long term averages, but I wouldn't be shocked if it is around 1,950 hours annually for Selsey putting it at number one. I also wouldn't be surprised if it has seen up to 2,300 hours of sunshine before eclipsing Bognor, but I am just speculating. If anywhere is sunnier than Bognor, I reckon it is Selsey in my opinion. I am convinced that this is probably the sunniest place in the UK. Again the jury is out on that though.

All of those places listed above are quite close to each other and have seen 2,000+ hours of sunshine before. Certainly in recent years they must have been averaging 2,000+ hours with the spring and summer droughts we have had. The jury is obviously out on those numbers though. I'm not saying any of that is definitive, apart from the Met Office's averages. 

I am theorising that the dramatic decline in spring/summer rainfall for southern England is going to result in large increases in annual sunshine hours, especially for those locations. At least I think that is what we are already seeing during recent years. When I was a kid at school (we're talking 15 years ago), I remember break times/recess and lunch's constantly being rained off because of how wet it was back then, with regular rain almost every other day. Compared to these days when it hardly rains, and when it does actually rain these days, it is very, very light and barely amounts to anything. We also seem to go weeks without rainfall now from April - September. It definitely seems much sunnier as a consequence these days.

On another note, I am on extreme fire risk warning again here. I am fearing the worst again after the devastating forest fire 3 miles southwest of me at Thursley Common back in May. Everything is like tinder here right now, waiting to go up. The Met Office were talking about dry lightening being in the forecast next week as well... 

[UK_Palms]

The all-time temperature record may go on Friday. The Met Office are forecasting 38C for Heathrow, which means we could easily see 39C+ somewhere in the southeast...

Looks like we're entering the 'dog days' of summer now with temperatures well into the 30's for quite some time as well. The Met Office are suggesting mid 30's for the next week or so, with no rain in sight, looking at their forecasts and models. That's not really the sort of forecast you would expect to see for an oceanic climate at 51N in August. Maybe in July, but not August at this latitude, or this climate. I mean we are an island in the Atlantic at 51N. Not 31N. 

There does appear to be a seasonal (summer) lag this year. Possibly due to rising sea surface temperatures, although this heat is driven by Saharan air masses. It seems the jet stream is staying further north in spring/summer in recent years and allowing warm, dry air from the Mediterranean and Sahara to push north. Hence the 100F temperatures in back to back years recently.

Just seen Matt Taylor from the Met Office speaking on BBC, saying that 40C is possible around the Heathrow/Richmond/Walton area on Friday and that he expects to see 39C somewhere. He also says Saturday may hit 37-38C (100F) as well here with the possibility of the forecasted temperatures being upgraded further in the next 24 hours. 

[UK_Palms]

London saw a high of 31C today but the proper heat starts tomorrow. It looks like Saturday will be the warmer day now, but I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 100F on both Friday and Saturday here in the southeast, somewhere. Possibly 100F on Sunday as well. I mean that is crazy heat for 51N in August. Five consecutive days of 95F+ temps forecasted going into mid-August.

There's a heavy Mediterranean influence in full swing with a summer lag and a distinct lack of rainfall. We're still only on 2.7 inches of rainfall since March 1st and the drought situation is severe here. Of course the dryness is going to be made even worse over the next 7-10 days by those high temperatures. Just how high they get, we'll have to wait and see. Really concerned about wildfires now here. It seems the next fire is imminent... 

I still think the temperature record may go tomorrow and it will almost certainly go on Saturday with some parts of London only dropping down to 22-23C on Friday night. Wouldn't be shocked if we then see 40C in west London on Saturday under the clear skies. 

[UK_Palms]

Well that didn't take long... the Met Office have updated the forecast further to 37C for both Friday and Saturday now at Heathrow! With highs of 36C now for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday! 

Dan Suri at the Met Office has just said that we may see 4-5 consecutive days that reach or exceed 100F in the southeast! The climate has definitely flipped here as we only just had 38.7C (101.6F) last summer here at 51N and we saw 100F the year before that in 2018 (3 consecutive years reaching 100F), not to mention we also reached 100F just last week! 

It has definitely been getting progressively hotter here, but what makes this unprecedented is that such a prolonged heat event is coming in August, rather than July. There is an obvious lag in summer temperatures this year. I am convinced we are seeing a gradual transition to 'warm-summer Med' here, given the extent of the droughts in recent years and the fact that 75-80% of annual precipitation is now coming in winter here. Perhaps it will revert back to normal next year, but I doubt that given the trends of recent years. The climate has definitely flipped here. 

The big question is will it hit 40C here during this event? If it does, it looks like Saturday will be the most likely day, after lows of 23-24C on Friday night in some areas, followed by balls to the wall sunshine on Saturday. Also, I'm not seeing any rain in these Met Office forecasts either and we desperately need it... 

Edited August 7, 2020 by UK_Palms

[greysrigging]

^^ Better screenshot that.....if this comes off it will be a heatwave of epic proportions ! Outstanding at 51*N.....

[UK_Palms]

23 hours ago, greysrigging said:

^^ Better screenshot that.....if this comes off it will be a heatwave of epic proportions ! Outstanding at 51*N.....

It didn't get as hot as we were expecting here today as cloud cover rolled in during mid-afternoon, completely blocking out the sun with overcast weather. Otherwise the temperature would have kept rising further into the afternoon. The highest temperature that the Met Office recorded on their Stephenson screens was 36.4C (97F) at both Kew Gardens and Heathrow around 3pm. It appeared to be hotter in other parts of London however...

There's no 'official' Met Office station at Wimbledon, but it appears they reached 37C on Friday afternoon according to weather.com...

I personally recorded 38C (101F) here at 2pm on my own device. The Guildford area appeared to be hovering around 100F around 2-3pm this afternoon, before the cloud cover moved in and stopped temperatures from rising. Obviously there are no 'official' Met stations within a 13 mile radius of Guildford however. So the jury is out on how hot it actually got around Guildford. I firmly believe that we hit 38C (100F). 

It's still 26C here at 1am and parts of London are looking at an overnight low of 25C tonight. So straight off the bat tomorrow, temperatures will be pretty high. Depending how much clear skies we get during the day, we could see temperatures up to 40C in places. I doubt that will be the case though, but it is certainly possible.

Cloud cover will clearly dictate the extent of the heat on Saturday, much like it did on Friday. If it is pretty overcast, we might not get above 35C. If there is lengthy breaks in the cloud cover, allowing strong sunshine, we may get above 38C There is the potential for it to be the hottest day on record though, either on Saturday or Sunday, depending on cloud cover. Sunday appears to be on course to be sunnier than Saturday, so either day could be a potential record breaker...

 

Edited August 8, 2020 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

Unfortunately my worst fears have been confirmed and we have suffered another big fire here in Surrey. The second major one this season, both within 10 miles of my house. Chobham common went up in flames yesterday and is still burning today. Over 100 houses evacuated.

Hardly surprising given how dry it has been here. Apart from the heavy rainfalls in February, and a bit of rain in June, we have had about 3 inches of rainfall since March 1st in many places around the southeast. And only 0.3 inches of rain since mid June. Parts of Kent may have had as little as 2 inches of rainfall since March 1st. Absolutely shocking. 

Crews are still battling the fire 30 hours after it started...

 

Back to the weather, it's very strange that the highest temperatures seem to be concentrated on the south coast today, or just inland, as opposed to the London area or the interior of the southeast. I'm seeing some very, very hot temps in coastal regions, especially going a few miles inland. I think some of these places only saw lows of 26-27C last night, hence why they are so hot today. Usually the coast is quite a bit cooler than the inland areas, especially London, but clearly not today...

 

Surely this station by the Ardingly Reservoir in West Sussex has to be incorrect, but it's hard to verify with no other nearby stations. Haywords Heath about 5 miles southwest of it hit 99F this afternoon so the 104F reading around mid-afternoon could be genuine. Impossible to tell without a Met Office station being there.

Chichester, supposedly the UK's sunniest place, appeared to of hit 100F today as well...

 

Temperatures at 5pm...

If any temperature records are going to be beaten, it appears it will happen in Kent or Sussex/West Sussex. The Met Office have confirmed 35C at 2pm in Kent and I am waiting to hear what they confirm as the highest temperature today. It has all been incredibly dependent on the cloud cover though. I don't think we will get above 36C again today due to how overcast it has been this afternoon. Unfortunately most of the places that are looking the hottest today don't have 'official' Met stations anywhere near them.

I am a few miles outside of Guildford and I was stuck at 33C for about 4 hours due to this cloud cover. It was completely overcast for several hours, however the skies cleared a bit allowing the temperature to rapidly climb up to 100F by 5pm. It is now dropping again though. It is also extremely muggy and humid here today. I'm only expecting a low of 20C again tonight. 

Tomorrow will be clear, sunny skies however, unlike today. Looking at the forecast, Sunday, Monday or Tuesday could all be potential record breakers with highs of 36-37C forecasted for Heathrow over the next 3 days. But the records could potentially go anywhere in the southeast over the next 72 hours, providing we have clear skies so that it can keep heating up. I think Sunday is the most likely day to be a record setter. 

[UK_Palms]

This heat is sickening now. Had enough of it. I have already recorded 3 consecutive days of 100F here in Surrey now and it looks like Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday all have the potential to hit 100F as well, with the heat peaking on Tuesday/Wednesday now. This is madness at 51N going into mid August. Parts of London are still 80F at 2am so it's going to be close to 100F again on Monday. 

It certainly won't help the fire situation with Chobham Common still burning away tonight, 60 hours after it started. I have been smelling smoke all day here. And now there is another fire at Horsell common which is about 9 miles away from me. Talk of a third fire near Elstead as well, just down the road. We desperately need that rain to come. I fear we're going to get dry lightening though...  

The police are staying at the parks making sure people don't start grass fires, or drop cigarettes... 

It's so dry here that it is unbelievable... EVERYTHING is like tinder waiting to go up...

The grass appears to be gone in places, replaced with sand... 

This is an irrigated cricket pitch... 

This is mental...

Never seen the beaches so packed here. You would never know that there is a pandemic on right now. 6 million people apparently went to the south coast this weekend. Not a face mask in sight. Not that I would wear one in 35C heat at Brighton or Bournemouth... 

 

Edited August 10, 2020 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

47 minutes ago, UK_Palms said:

This heat is sickening now. Had enough of it. I have already recorded 3 consecutive days of 100F here in Surrey now and it looks like Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday all have the potential to hit 100F as well, with the heat peaking on Tuesday/Wednesday now. This is madness at 51N going into mid August. Parts of London are still 80F at 2am so it's going to be close to 100F again on Monday. 

It certainly won't help the fire situation with Chobham Common still burning away tonight, 60 hours after it started. I have been smelling smoke all day here. And now there is another fire at Horsell common which is about 9 miles away from me. Talk of a third fire near Elstead as well, just down the road. We desperately need that rain to come. I fear we're going to get dry lightening though...  

The police are staying at the parks making sure people don't start grass fires, or drop cigarettes... 

It's so dry here that it is unbelievable... EVERYTHING is like tinder waiting to go up...

The grass appears to be gone in places, replaced with sand... 

This is an irrigated cricket pitch... 

This is mental...

Never seen the beaches so packed here. You would never know that there is a pandemic on right now. 6 million people apparently went to the south coast this weekend. Not a face mask in sight. Not that I would wear one in 35C heat at Brighton or Bournemouth... 

 

*reposting due to some images not appearing.

[Exotic Life]

On 8/8/2020 at 2:48 AM, UK_Palms said:

It's still 26C here at 1am and parts of London are looking at an overnight low of 25C tonight. So straight off the bat tomorrow, temperatures will be pretty high. Depending how much clear skies we get during the day, we could see temperatures up to 40C in places. I doubt that will be the case though, but it is certainly possible. 

 

I have been into the high 90's/100F since 4 days, highest this heatwave until now has been just over 100F as well. It is very likely to see at least for another 3-4 days high 90's and specially Tuesday, Wednesday very likely to hit 100F or higher again. 

So after the extreme drought and long summer in 2018, we have seen the big 40C/104F for the first time ever in 2019 and when I almost gave up on summer 2020 as just a average summer it now looks like we are experiencing the most intense heatwave since a very long time. It will probably not be the longest but seeing temperatures over 35C/high 90's for this many days in a row is very rare/record breaking.  

Seeing how easily it became 40C way up north in France you would almost say this is almost just the beginning of something new.  Don't think we will hit 40C and neither the UK at a official weather station because we are just a little late in the summer season. If this heatwave would have been in mid July it might even been more epic than it is right now. 

 

[Chester B]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/09/uk-weather-a-months-rain-could-fall-in-two-hours-as-heatwave-breaks

Looks like you'll be getting rain.

I was in Cork, Ireland in July a few years back and they broke 30C.  I think it was record for the day.

Even though we have gloomy wet winters - 3 days of 35C plus is pretty common in summer around here and we usually get no rain July/August with little in June or September.  3 years ago we did 40+ days over 32C/90F, and anything under 30C during summer is a bummer for me. 32.5C/90F here today and some hotter days on the horizon, great for the palms. 

'm surprised everything is so brown there, we don't usually get that bad but I guess our vegetation is used to lack of rain in summer.  Forest fires are common here in summer, when they get real bad the sky turns amber, it smells like a big campfire and we may even have ash in the air.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Chester B

[UK_Palms]

14 hours ago, Exotic Life said:

I have been into the high 90's/100F since 4 days, highest this heatwave until now has been just over 100F as well. It is very likely to see at least for another 3-4 days high 90's and specially Tuesday, Wednesday very likely to hit 100F or higher again. 

So after the extreme drought and long summer in 2018, we have seen the big 40C/104F for the first time ever in 2019 and when I almost gave up on summer 2020 as just a average summer it now looks like we are experiencing the most intense heatwave since a very long time. It will probably not be the longest but seeing temperatures over 35C/high 90's for this many days in a row is very rare/record breaking.  

Seeing how easily it became 40C way up north in France you would almost say this is almost just the beginning of something new.  Don't think we will hit 40C and neither the UK at a official weather station because we are just a little late in the summer season. If this heatwave would have been in mid July it might even been more epic than it is right now. 

 

Another hot one here today as well. I have registered 100F yet again today. I also agree that we will not hit 40C+ now due to the hot spell coming late on in August, when the days are shorter and when the sun is less intense than it is in July. Like you say though, if this plume of Saharan air had arrived in early-mid July, when the days are 2 hours longer and when the sun is more intense than it is now, then temperatures would probably be reaching 40C and possibly exceeding that, with a plume of Saharan air like this one.

With global warming/climate change and the warming trend in general that we are seeing, I would not rule out a Saharan plume like this one arriving earlier in the coming years. If one of this size was to strike in say late June / early July, it would be devastating for Europe. When the days are at their longest and the sun is at it's strongest, even places like London and Amsterdam could be looking at 40-45C. Could be. Obviously these Saharan air masses tend to arrive later on in the summer, like late July/early August, but I would not rule out one arriving a month earlier than usual. Sooner or later at least. The jet stream is staying further north in summer these days, over Scandinavia, so the Saharan air could easily flow north early on in summer. 

Anyway, temperatures aside, how is the drought situation over your way in the Netherlands? The situation is extreme here in the southeast of England. There are several big fires raging in my county of Surrey alone. Chobham Common has been burning for 4 days now and has spread to other places. It is illegal to have a BBQ or start a bonfire right now in Surrey due to the extreme fire risk. The rain can't come soon enough. I have only had 2.7 inches of rainfall since March 1st. In some parts of Kent they have only had 1.9 inches of rainfall since March 1st. On the current trajectory, I am going to finish the year on about 14 inches of rain.

Edited August 10, 2020 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

3 hours ago, Chester B said:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/09/uk-weather-a-months-rain-could-fall-in-two-hours-as-heatwave-breaks

Looks like you'll be getting rain.

I was in Cork, Ireland in July a few years back and they broke 30C.  I think it was record for the day.

Even though we have gloomy wet winters - 3 days of 35C plus is pretty common in summer around here and we usually get no rain July/August with little in June or September.  3 years ago we did 40+ days over 32C/90F, and anything under 30C during summer is a bummer for me. 32.5C/90F here today and some hotter days on the horizon, great for the palms. 

'm surprised everything is so brown there, we don't usually get that bad but I guess our vegetation is used to lack of rain in summer.  Forest fires are common here in summer, when they get real bad the sky turns amber, it smells like a big campfire and we may even have ash in the air.

I don't buy the rainfall forecast one bit. Every time BBC or the Met Office forecast's rain, it gets put back further and further and never actually arrives. And when it does rain, it barely amounts to anything. We need a lot of it to compensate for this drought, but I'm not convinced we will get it.

Sure the southwest, Wales, the Midlands, the northeast, Scotland, northern Ireland etc will all get a drenching, but the southeast of England seems to have a rain block during the summer months, possibly due to the cold ocean/sea currents around the UK and warmer air coming across from France which causes a subtropical ridge like effect in the southeast of England during the spring and summer months. Obviously the southeast is also the warmest part of the UK. Either way the rain black is more pronounced than it used to be. 

I have just looked at the forecast for my area and it seems the thunderstorms are going to be very hit and miss. Most are going to be to the north and west of me. If anything we're going to get dry lightening on Tuesday night and late on Wednesday, which is a recipe for disaster during a drought. Given that we already have fires raging here. I guess time will tell. Perhaps we will get some heavy rainfalls. Perhaps not.

The jet stream is ridiculously far north right now, about 1000 miles north of the UK, so hot air from the Mediterranean and Sahara is free to move up, as it has been doing over the past week. I'm expecting highs of 100F on Tuesday and Wednesday again, before it cools down again due to low pressure from the Atlantic. But as soon as that fizzles out, the hot dry air will just move in again. It looks like mid-late August is going to be hot and dry too, going by the long-term Met Office forecast. 

The vegetation definitely isn't accustomed to this kind of drought and heat, which is why it is browning off and dying to the extent that it is. The climate has shifted here and there has been a dramatic decline in annual precipitation, with more winter rainfall and a lot less spring/summer rainfall. I don't know what your rainfall totals have been in recent years, but Portland averages 36 inches of rain annually. Here over the past 3 years, I have seen 18, 16 and 19 inches of rainfall. This year is on course for 14-15 inches. So despite 75% of my annual rainfall falling between Nov-Feb, it is still not enough to compensate for the spring/summer droughts it would appear. Combined with vegetation that is not accustomed to warm-dry summers that are experiencing an increasing number of 'hot' days, or hot periods. 

[UK_Palms]

Reached 100F again here today, for the 4th consecutive day now. 

Temperatures around south London on Monday afternoon...

The fire at Chobham Common was still raging away last night and is still burning on Monday, four days after it started...

The fires have spread to livestock fields now as well...

The damage is awful on the Common...

 

The fire fighting efforts would not have been helped by the high temperatures. It appears the Chobham Common area where the fire is was well over 100F today...

 

I have also been keeping an eye on Thursley Common, which is 4 miles southwest of me. Obviously they suffered a major fire back in May, which is documented in this thread. They appeared to be hovering around the 100F mark on Monday as well and they are well out in the rural countryside. God forbid that goes up in flames again. The damaged sections have just started regrowing. 

 

Expecting close to 100F on Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Possible dry lightening as well forecast for tomorrow evening... 

Edited August 11, 2020 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

Just had my hottest day of the year here in Surrey, maxing out at 102.9F in my garden at 3:30 this afternoon. By 4pm the temperature in my house had reached a shocking 98F as well, which I think is the hottest I have ever seen it, indoors... 

Unfortunately there are no 'official' Met Office stations in Surrey to verify this, a county of 1.3 million people and 650 square miles. They should at least put an 'official' station in Guildford. 

 

Not sure what the Met Office recorded as their 'official' high in Farnborough on Monday, but the urban areas around Farnborough, Frimley and Blackwater all looked to be at least 100F. I know the Met Office station is outside of Farnborough town, in a rural zone however, several miles to the northeast. But even still the 'official' station must have recorded at least 95-100F. 

Temperatures around London this afternoon...

 

Have a feeling Thursley common will go up in flames again with dry lightening forecast for tomorrow evening. They've been around 100F the past 3 days too. 

 

All the talk at the moment over here is about these 'tropical nights', the term used to describe nights that do not drop below 20C (68F). We have already had a number of them this summer and it doesn't look like central London will be dropping below 22-23C (75F) on Monday night. These 'tropical nights' used to be extremely rare here, but we are now seeing a dramatic increase in them in recent years. No doubt due to climate change. 

I'm still sitting at 74F at 2am here near Guildford and expect to go down to 70F. Below are the current temperatures around London at 2am. Most places won't drop below 75F tonight...

 

Still waiting on that rain here...

Fires are breaking out everywhere. Over 20 active fires in the southeast right now... 

[greysrigging]

"Unfortunately there are no 'official' Met Office stations in Surrey to verify this, a county of 1.3 million people and 650 square miles. They should at least put an 'official' station in Guildford." 

We may have 'discussed' this previously.....I think you have mentioned there are official sites in Wisely and Farnborough....so 10 and 15klm away ? There will be negligible differences in official readings on extreme heat days....to use Met Office speak, extreme heat days are generally 'spatially coherent', ie, not a huge difference in such a small geographical range, and most certainly not unless we are talking of a site on the coast compared to say 10 or 15klm inland, or differences in altitude.
Home weather stations are certainly interesting, and are indicative of the conditions on a given day ( or night ) And official sites of course have strict siting requirements so accurate comparisons can be made.....
In Australia, back yard and amateur recordings perpetuate the 'myth' of 50c temps every summer, and I suspect they do the same in the UK regarding 38c ( the old 100f ) temps every summer.
Now, as a bit of a weather freak and stats nerd ( I like cricket stats too ), I like accuracy and comparable data. I also like to see the records broken, and the close to 100f of the past week is meteorologically  very interesting, as was the actual 100f back on the 31/7 at Heathrow.  No doubt a damn fine spell of heat for mid August.

Edited August 12, 2020 by greysrigging
addition to post.

[UK_Palms]

@greysrigging Okay, so the ‘official’ Met stations at Heathrow and Kew both recorded 97F yesterday via their Stevenson screens. However west London in general had quite a bit more cloud cover than I did here yesterday afternoon. Therefore it’s certainly conceivable that I was 5F warmer than those places, here in Surrey. Again, it is almost impossible to verify due to there being no official Met stations in Surrey. Although I still stand by my own recordings taken in the shade, 5 feet off the ground. As opposed to recordings that are taken 10-20 miles away. 
 

Right now, my yard temperature is reading 96F at midday here. Guildford is a few degrees warmer. Depending on cloud cover, I would expect low 100’s F again here. It has already started clouding over here though and there is a risk of thunderstorms this afternoon. The official Met station at Kew Gardens is already reading 35C (95F) as well though, so depending on cloud cover this afternoon, they might reach or exceed 100F there today, or at Heathrow, on an ‘’official’ station. Either way, it is still bloody hot for latitude 51N in mid August! 

Edited August 12, 2020 by UK_Palms

[Marco67]

Perhaps you should be glad you live in England and have this heat only for a couple of weeks a year and perhaps some years not at all. When you live in the Mediterranean you have this hot weather every year for months on end 

 

[UK_Palms]

London has now experienced 6 consecutive days with temperatures above 35C. There has also been 5 consecutive nights now above 20C. Tuesday night was very warm and uncomfortable with a low of 21.7C (71F) out here in the countryside. Central London didn't drop below 24C (75F) on Tuesday night, which may be a record high overnight low. Temperatures look to be the same again tonight. 

On Wednesday I recorded a high of 100.3F at 2:44pm under the clear skies. However clouds were already moving in by then and we were totally overcast with storm clouds just after 3pm, dropping temperatures down to 85F within a matter of minutes. It was still very humid though with heat indexes over 90F. I could hear thunder and see a few flashes in the distance, going towards London, but I did not get any rainfall. 

 

We went from this at 1pm...

To this at 3pm... 

And this at 4pm...

But sill no rain here yet as of Wednesday night...

 

The fires are still raging here in Surrey... 

Whitmoor Common in Guildford went up in flames earlier today. Possibly due to dry lightening. This fire is about 5 miles northeast of me but the fire crews have contained it largely...

 

Much cooler temperatures and thunderstorms on the way now though as the heatwave breaks. Only expecting highs of 29-30C (85F) on Thursday with on and off thunderstorms over the next 3 days. Possibly more dry lightening as well which is a worry as there are 3 active fires within a 10 mile radius of me right now. We're gradually cooling down though to low to mid 20's C and we're almost certain to get some rain... 

 

Edited August 13, 2020 by UK_Palms

[UK_Palms]

I don't want to post too much right now as I am drunk off my head (Friday night), but the temperatures have dropped massively and we have received some rain. Temperatures reached 29C with high humidity and a thunderstorm on Thursday, bringing 0.13 inches of rain. We're only on 0.17 inches for August so far. 

Daytime temperatures are reaching 25C (77F) with nighttime temperatures around 21C (70F) right now. Very mild but muggy and humid at the same time. The fires have largely been put out due to the rainfall and cooler temperatures. Cool, wet weather is forecast over the coming days, with highs of 22C (74F) and lows of 19C (66F). A big contrast to the high temperatures that we have had in recent weeks.

Edited August 15, 2020 by UK_Palms
Spelling

[Exotic Life]

On 8/15/2020 at 2:15 AM, UK_Palms said:

I don't want to post too much right now as I am drunk off my head (Friday night), but the temperatures have dropped massively and we have received some rain. Temperatures reached 29C with high humidity and a thunderstorm on Thursday, bringing 0.13 inches of rain. We're only on 0.17 inches for August so far. 

Daytime temperatures are reaching 25C (77F) with nighttime temperatures around 21C (70F) right now. Very mild but muggy and humid at the same time. The fires have largely been put out due to the rainfall and cooler temperatures. Cool, wet weather is forecast over the coming days, with highs of 22C (74F) and lows of 19C (66F). A big contrast to the high temperatures that we have had in recent weeks.

Heatwave still continue here but a much cooler level, high twenties here today, tomorrow likely to see 30-31C and than it will end by Friday/Saturday. 

Hopefully we still see some nice summer weather in September because I am not ready for autumn weather yet. 

[Exotic Life]

On 8/11/2020 at 12:06 AM, UK_Palms said:

Anyway, temperatures aside, how is the drought situation over your way in the Netherlands? The situation is extreme here in the southeast of England. There are several big fires raging in my county of Surrey alone. Chobham Common has been burning for 4 days now and has spread to other places. It is illegal to have a BBQ or start a bonfire right now in Surrey due to the extreme fire risk. The rain can't come soon enough. I have only had 2.7 inches of rainfall since March 1st. In some parts of Kent they have only had 1.9 inches of rainfall since March 1st. On the current trajectory, I am going to finish the year on about 14 inches of rain.

Overall the situation is not bad but still on the dry side, specially deeper in the ground and that is because the past 3 years we did not received enough rain versus evaporation. Walking outside it is depending on where you are if you see drought stress. The places with a sandy soil and not too much rain since spring are the worst and look more or less exactly like the pictures you are shown. Specially in June and also the last couple of days we have had humid warm/hot weather which created huge thunderstorms. Some places received lots of rain, others nothing. There are places that received 3-4 inches since March but there are also placed they received that in just a few hours the last couple of days. 

The drought deeper in the ground you can clearly see when it is drier for a longer period and warm like this hot spell we just experienced.  The normal man will not see it but people with a eye for it will see yellowing leaves, droopy bushes, grass that is turning yellow directly, etc. 

[UK_Palms]

4 hours ago, Exotic Life said:

Heatwave still continue here but a much cooler level, high twenties here today, tomorrow likely to see 30-31C and than it will end by Friday/Saturday. 

Hopefully we still see some nice summer weather in September because I am not ready for autumn weather yet. 

Wow, high twenties for you guys still.  

It's been nowhere near that warm here the past couple of days. Not since the Atlantic weather system moved in, and settled over us on Sunday night. Temperatures have been 2-3C below average all week so far with overcast skies. I only recorded a high of 21C (70F) here on Wednesday. It has literally been raining all day as well, like constant rain from 6am - 6pm. Heavy at times. I don't think I even saw the sun once today. Probably the wettest day I have seen since the heavy February rains last winter. I have recorded 21mm (0.8 inches) just today alone. Not until dinner time did it stop. 

Still mild tonight though. After a high of 21C we are looking at a low of 19-20C tonight. A difference of 1C between day and night. It should be a lot sunnier tomorrow too as the low pressure Atlantic system is pushed back by the continental air mass that is currently over you guys in the Netherlands and France.  With high pressure forming tomorrow, I am expecting a high of 23-24C (75F) for Thursday.  Still a fair bit cooler than you guys. We've got some very windy conditions forecast for Friday though. Better secure everything down in the garden after work tomorrow. Wind gusts of 45mph are predicted here.

 

[Exotic Life]

30C here yesterday, 27C at midnight, minimum 23C and at 7.30 AM it was over 25C again, warm morning.
Temperature will only rise back again till 26-27C before your coldfront reach us later today. From Saturday we will make that some drop as you did, back to temperatures around 20C at day and 15C at night.

[sipalms]

Here's two forecasts for comparison....... One is a so called mediterranean climate in late summer and one is a temperate oceanic climate in late winter!

I'm actually just being outright provocative and feel kinda bad so sorry about that in advance. It's just so heartening to see some semblance of warmish sunnyish weather on the horizon so I couldn't help myself posting the below!!

Guildford UK summer weekend weather

Christchurch NZ winter weekend weather

I'm a d*** aren't I. 

 

[sandgroper]

2 hours ago, sipalms said:

Here's two forecasts for comparison....... One is a so called mediterranean climate in late summer and one is a temperate oceanic climate in late winter!

I'm actually just being outright provocative and feel kinda bad so sorry about that in advance. It's just so heartening to see some semblance of warmish sunnyish weather on the horizon so I couldn't help myself posting the below!!

Guildford UK summer weekend weather

Christchurch NZ winter weekend weather

I'm a d*** aren't I. 

 

Things are looking a bit better late winter for us too!

[Chester B]

Here in Oregon west of the Cascade Mountains you will see us classified as a warm-summer Mediterranean climate (Köppen Csb).  I think we get comparisons to UK because of the rain but our summers are much hotter.  However palms like CIDP and Washingtonia don't do well here until you hit the southern coast.  Here is the upcoming weather for the start of September.  Pretty standard for this time of year.

Edited August 26, 2020 by Chester B

[sipalms]

Near record high temps in Christchurch today, 24C/74F, it's still winter for another few weeks yet.

I've never heard about this before, but "frost curing" is such a thing, where it dries foliage over winter and by the end of winter, with warm dry weather, things become very flammable. Well, turns out that's whats happening right now;

 



Edited August 30, 2020 by sipalms

[sandgroper]

On 8/30/2020 at 5:56 PM, sipalms said:

Near record high temps in Christchurch today, 24C/74F, it's still winter for another few weeks yet.

I've never heard about this before, but "frost curing" is such a thing, where it dries foliage over winter and by the end of winter, with warm dry weather, things become very flammable. Well, turns out that's whats happening right now;

 



That's a bit frightening to see bushfires this early on, there's some bad fires up in the Territory here in Oz too, doesn't bode well for the upcoming bushfire season.

[UK_Palms]

On 8/25/2020 at 11:41 PM, sipalms said:

Here's two forecasts for comparison....... One is a so called mediterranean climate in late summer and one is a temperate oceanic climate in late winter!

I'm actually just being outright provocative and feel kinda bad so sorry about that in advance. It's just so heartening to see some semblance of warmish sunnyish weather on the horizon so I couldn't help myself posting the below!!

Guildford UK summer weekend weather

Christchurch NZ winter weekend weather

I'm a d*** aren't I. 

 

 

Okay, so we're obviously at the back end of our summer here at 51N right now. It also just so happens that we have been cooler than average over the past 10 days due to low pressure Atlantic influence and northerly winds bringing in arctic air masses. Consequently temperatures have been below average for the time of year. In fact the last week or so of August has been utter crap this year. I mean I only reached 19C here today and have been averaging about 20C highs in recent days (not as cold as the forecast you attached). To put into perspective just how cool it has been, this time last year... exactly one year ago... on August 31st 2019... it was 33C in Guildford and 34C in London. Yet we couldn't even hit 20C today. A real crappy end to summer, but also the luck of the draw I suppose.

Obviously if you had screenshotted the temperatures to compare from 2 weeks ago, you would have seen us having mid-high 30's C and sunny skies for about 10 days straight. I mean there was a relentless heatwave here in mid August. Nighttime temperatures didn't drop below 18C here for 9 straight days/nights and I had 6 consecutive nights above 20C. Obviously you didn't post during that time (not that you had to), but I'm guessing you were waiting for the temperatures to finally drop off again so you could post something akin to the above and make a comparison. Although it's hard to make a comparison when you guys are 8 degrees closer to the equator, with more sunshine and warmer temperatures on average, except during summer when we are marginally warmer on average. But on the whole you are obviously going to see more favourable weather to me, like in general. I accept that.

And no, I don't think I am a true Mediterranean climate. Far from it. I have previously stated that we are somewhere in-between temperate Oceanic and warm-summer Med due to the warm-dry summers and lengthy recurring dry periods that typically last from April - July, but can also run from March - August. The droughts have been especially pronounced in May and June in recent years here and not at all synonymous with an oceanic climate. Not to mention about 85% of my annual rainfall has been falling from October - January. Who knows what climate classification we will have just 10 years from now. The same goes for you guys in Christchurch as well who I think are almost transitioning towards warm-summer Med as well. What with climate change and the decrease in spring/summer precipitation in our areas. Both of us are fairly dry in general in terms of annual precipitation and that's before factoring in the decline.

And no, I honestly don't think you're a **** mate. I just think you're a bit of a ****. 

[UK_Palms]

On 8/30/2020 at 10:56 AM, sipalms said:

Near record high temps in Christchurch today, 24C/74F, it's still winter for another few weeks yet.

I've never heard about this before, but "frost curing" is such a thing, where it dries foliage over winter and by the end of winter, with warm dry weather, things become very flammable. Well, turns out that's whats happening right now;

A similar phenomena occurs over here some winters/springs when "frost curing" dries the foliage and causes bush/heath fires in late winter/early spring. Manchester was hit particularly hard in February 2019 after highs of 21C in late winter. A number of fires broke out, the worst being at Saddleworth Moor which was later devastated again that same year by a fire in the summer as well, which lasted 3-4 months. The pictures below are from February 2019...

 

So yeah, 'frost curing' is a thing...

[sipalms]

On 8/31/2020 at 4:33 PM, UK_Palms said:

And no, I honestly don't think you're a **** mate. I just think you're a bit of a ****. 

No worries bro, I can take that.

By the way just on a side note, I managed to track down where in the world some of those pictures were that you posted a while back claiming to be in the UK...

This one, along with a whole lot of similar vistas, you started off saying was on a boating trip you went on in Surrey, but later changed to somewhere else on the southern UK coast, then finally you said it was 'up north' or something. In any case, it was purported to demonstrate how deliciously hot, arid and mediterranean the UK was....

Well, turns out most of these pictures are actually taken in Ölüdeniz Tabiat National Reserve, in Turkey. This is nearly 3000 km away from Surrey as the crow flies, and at 36 degrees North not 51 degrees north. The ‘incriminating’ photo is this particular vista, you’ll note the similarity between the 'Surrey/UK' version and the actual Turkey one;

 

There’s also all these ones below that you have posted, showing the typical semi-arid Mediterranean scrub but unfortunately as much as you would like it to be in the UK, it too is in the same Turkish nature reserve. You’re welcome to peruse the photos on Google Maps.

 

This was another one I found interesting. It was so beautiful, seemingly too beautiful for the UK. The water, too clear, the rock, too white, the trees, too mediterranean and most definitely not enough people/crowded like sardines like UK beaches are in a heatwave...

Well, this picture actually is at Calanque d'En-Vau, France, an actual place on the warm Mediterranean coast of southern France around 1000km from Guildford and at 43N not 51N.

As you can see there's lots of evidence,  again, your're most welcome to verify yourself on Google Maps photos.

So far this is proving to be very fun and exciting, like those games we used to play where you had to guess 'where in the world' a picture was.

Who knows, maybe some other photos on this thread are from elsewhere in the world.... ? Anyone else want to join this game?

 @PalmsNC, @sandgroper, @SouthSeaNate @LivistonaFan - I know you'll be interested in these findings for sure.

I think from now on, any photos that end up on this thread need to be verified, that is unless they have Paddington, Big Ben, Her Majesty the Queen, or a cold pork pie in them - then we'll know that they are indeed in the UK......!

This one is the biggest challenge so far. It's not the UK, period. There is simply no forest clad volcanic cones remotely like this in the UK, unless @UK_Palms you want to prove me wrong. But the foliage looks familiar, almost NZ sub-alpine...

[sandgroper]

7 hours ago, sipalms said:

 

Who knows, maybe some other photos on this thread are from elsewhere in the world.... ? Anyone else want to join this game?

 @PalmsNC, @sandgroper, @SouthSeaNate @LivistonaFan - I know you'll be interested in these findings for sure.

I think from now on, any photos that end up on this thread need to be verified, that is unless they have Paddington, Big Ben, Her Majesty the Queen, or a cold pork pie in them - then we'll know that they are indeed in the UK......!

 

Crickey! That's a pretty impressive piece of detective work finding out where these pics were really located! Not sure where the volcano one would be, don't think it'll be here in Oz though.

 

First day of spring here today, can't wait to get back in the pool!

Edited September 1, 2020 by sandgroper

[PalmsNC]

@sipalms Impressive work, you mentioned the volcano picture looked like New Zealand a bit, perhaps its in the southern cone of South America, similar vegetation there and lots of volcanoes .

[SouthSeaNate]

This thread is hilarious, well done @sipalms for finding out where those photos were really taken, we all knew they were not in the UK. What I don't understand is why UK_Palms has to lie? And he can still deny lying & claim every photo he has posted is from the UK!? Pretty embarrassing for him regardless!