New Climate Normals (1991-2020)

[kinzyjr]

Nice work on the map, @Jimbean! 

The half zone up 1990 map was kind of what I was thinking as well.  The 50-year map would dial back some areas on the map that got promoted to the next higher zone since it includes the 1977 freeze as well as the 1980s.  Just in my neck of the woods, the 50-year map brings Bartow, Winter Haven, Kissimmee and Orlando (KMCO) back to top-end 9b climates.  Downtown Orlando (KORL) would remain a borderline zone 10a if records from Orlando International (KMCO) were used to fill in the 1974-1998 gap in complete yearly records in the NOAA data.

In regard to classification systems, any classification system is bound to have its shortcomings.   USDA Zones, Sunset Zones, Koppen-Geiger are just three that are commonly used.  When considering whether to plant something in my garden, I typically look for a few things:

If there are none here yet:

1. What are the minimal temperatures it has survived? (observations in Florida, if possible)
2. What percentage of the time does it survive each temperature?
3. How much care would it take to nurse it through a bad freeze?
4. Does it have other cultural requirements that are difficult or impossible to meet here?
5. Does it cost a lot to buy or replace?

If there are some already planted:

1. Are there any in my neck of the woods that have survived 2008?  2010?  2018?  All three?  (Should be long-term viable, if so)
2. Are there any that survived the 1980s? (Should be bulletproof if it got through 1985 and/or 1989.  Difficult to ascertain at this point, unfortunately.)
3. Are they barely hanging on and looking terrible?  Are they thriving?
4. Are seeds from the survivors available and viable? (Higher percentage chance of good genes)

Other considerations:

1. If they seed, is there a demand for the seeds? (Might as well make some money...)
2. Is there a space on the lot suitable for it?
3. How long will I have to wait until it looks like more than a blade of grass?
4. How will it mesh with what is already present?
5. Thorns/messy/self-cleaning?

[RedRabbit]

5 hours ago, Jimbean said:

This map is based on the last 30 years.  Take this with a grain of sand.

Awesome job @Jimbean! 
 

The data shows this is right, but what do we think about it though? Something doesn’t feel quite right about Bithlo and Melbourne Beach being in the same zone. 

Edited January 2, 2021 by RedRabbit

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Awesome job @Jimbean! 
 

The data shows this is right, but what do we think about it though? Something doesn’t feel quite right about Bithlo and Melbourne Beach being in the same zone. 

My mailbox was full of $50 and $100 checks, so...

[JJPalmer]

22 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

The new spreadsheet is attached.  Not sure this will substantially alter the map, but the locations that were very close to or were identical to each other are merged in this set.  There are now 211 locations rather than the 217.

202012312345_ZoneMap_1991-2020.xlsx 31.26 kB · 2 downloads

I’m really surprised how similar TPA and PIE are considering they’re separated by a Bay. Obviously the number of observations differ - but I would have expected St Pete - Clearwater to be significantly warmer than TPA. Great work, awesome seeing the data.

[RedRabbit]

9 minutes ago, JJPalmer said:

I’m really surprised how similar TPA and PIE are considering they’re separated by a Bay. Obviously the number of observations differ - but I would have expected St Pete - Clearwater to be significantly warmer than TPA. Great work, awesome seeing the data.

TPA’s thermometer gets a lot influence from the bay and the tarmac. Paul Delgado has actually mentioned this on the news before when TPA reported strangely high summer temps due to heat radiating off the asphalt. 

[RedRabbit]

1 hour ago, kinzyjr said:

My mailbox was full of $50 and $100 checks, so...

Ah ok, that explains it. I don’t see St. Pete or AMI at 10b, is something off there or are we trying to extort them since we know the folks on AMI can afford it? 

[Mr. Coconut Palm]

On 12/29/2020 at 9:04 PM, RedRabbit said:

I’m skeptical of their ability to get it done in 2 years. Their SSL certificate expired over month ago and they haven’t bothered to fix it, even after I wrote in telling them about the problem. 

Yeah, Trump and the Republicans have done so much to sabotage government, but it really started when Reagan took over the federal government in the early 1980's.  I have even heard that there is a big push among Republicans to completely eliminate the National Weather Service and turn its duties over to their corporate buddies at "Accuweather"!

John

[kinzyjr]

1 hour ago, RedRabbit said:

Ah ok, that explains it. I don’t see St. Pete or AMI at 10b, is something off there or are we trying to extort them since we know the folks on AMI can afford it? 

I figured they were already lucky enough, so they were told if they didn't pay they'd go down a zone.

1 hour ago, JJPalmer said:

I’m really surprised how similar TPA and PIE are considering they’re separated by a Bay. Obviously the number of observations differ - but I would have expected St Pete - Clearwater to be significantly warmer than TPA. Great work, awesome seeing the data.

The data for the other layers on the Google Map is attached to this post if you're interested in that as well.

202101010035_AllTimeZones.xlsx

[Jimbean]

12 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

Awesome job @Jimbean! 
 

The data shows this is right, but what do we think about it though? Something doesn’t feel quite right about Bithlo and Melbourne Beach being in the same zone. 

Actually according to the data Melbourne Beach is zone 10B, but it's too small of a landmass to color it in.  Melbourne, Merritt Island, Vero Beach, ect are on the high end of 10A, and the interior locations of central Florida where it shows 10A are all borderline 10A.  What's missing is perhaps stations in East Orange county for example.

[RedRabbit]

18 hours ago, Jimbean said:

Actually according to the data Melbourne Beach is zone 10B, but it's too small of a landmass to color it in.  Melbourne, Merritt Island, Vero Beach, ect are on the high end of 10A, and the interior locations of central Florida where it shows 10A are all borderline 10A.  What's missing is perhaps stations in East Orange county for example.

Thanks for explaining, it makes sense that lack of data from rural eastern Orange / western Brevard could attribute to everything being labeled 10a. 

[bubba]

I hate to beat my dead horse on a thread that many have put in a tremendous amount of hard work. With all this “Florida Freeze” stuff going on, I was under the impression that we had one of those extremely cold in the east situations with a corresponding extremely warm in the west scenario.

December statistics for cold hole PBIA show medium December 2020 average of 67.39 F. High/Low at PBIA of 84F/41F(45F at the beach). It cracks me up when all of the press communicates freezing Florida and our “cold day” is 61F/45F. To a Floridian who spends most of the year sweating, these days are refreshing and that for what we wish.

Using Phoenix as a western comparison, the monthly median December 2020 temperature was 55.49F with high/low of 80F/39F. Numerous days with high temperature in low 60sF with low temperature in the low 40sF. No breaking news stories on that action...

[Jimbean]

3 hours ago, bubba said:

I hate to beat my dead horse on a thread that many have put in a tremendous amount of hard work. With all this “Florida Freeze” stuff going on, I was under the impression that we had one of those extremely cold in the east situations with a corresponding extremely warm in the west scenario.

December statistics for cold hole PBIA show medium December 2020 average of 67.39 F. High/Low at PBIA of 84F/41F(45F at the beach). It cracks me up when all of the press communicates freezing Florida and our “cold day” is 61F/45F. To a Floridian who spends most of the year sweating, these days are refreshing and that for what we wish.

Using Phoenix as a western comparison, the monthly median December 2020 temperature was 55.49F with high/low of 80F/39F. Numerous days with high temperature in low 60sF with low temperature in the low 40sF. No breaking news stories on that action...

This is why I don't watch televised or mainstream news

[JLM]

Using one of the data sets provided by @kinzyjr, made this in Google My Maps. Good thing about this is its interactive. 
Map: 1991-2020 Florida USDA Zone Map
Any edit recommendations would be greatly appreciated!

[kinzyjr]

3 hours ago, JLM said:

Using one of the data sets provided by @kinzyjr, made this in Google My Maps. Good thing about this is its interactive. 
Map: 1991-2020 Florida USDA Zone Map
Any edit recommendations would be greatly appreciated!

Nice work!  The map is overall consistent with the data.  I've been kind of interested to see where exactly some of these stations are located.  I've seen the Bartow station and Mountain Lake station.  I think I located the newer station at Lakeland Linder (the one not out by County Line Rd.):

If the longitude and latitude for the Orlando International and Orlando Executive airports are fairly accurate, the one at Orlando International should be near the FAA building/tower and the station at Orlando Executive should be out in the field beside or behind Lake Georgette.

I just finished downloading the remainder of the 2020 data from NOAA.  I'll have to do some fun stuff before I can import all of it into the database, but will share once I am done. 

[Jimbean]

On 5/7/2021 at 1:18 PM, JLM said:

Using one of the data sets provided by @kinzyjr, made this in Google My Maps. Good thing about this is its interactive. 
Map: 1991-2020 Florida USDA Zone Map
Any edit recommendations would be greatly appreciated!

Nice attempt!  However there are some details that are a bit flawed with it.  For example, even the most conservative estimates have zone 9B going up the Volusia county coast to at least Ormond Beach. 

[JLM]

12 hours ago, Jimbean said:

Nice attempt!  However there are some details that are a bit flawed with it.  For example, even the most conservative estimates have zone 9B going up the Volusia county coast to at least Ormond Beach. 

Ill be sure to change that soon. Thanks!

[JLM]

On 5/12/2021 at 8:11 AM, Jimbean said:

Nice attempt!  However there are some details that are a bit flawed with it.  For example, even the most conservative estimates have zone 9B going up the Volusia county coast to at least Ormond Beach. 

I took 10a and pushed it north along the coast to Ormond, making Daytona 10a. Has it changed on the map that you see or no?

[kinzyjr]

All,

Attached is the spreadsheet including the available data from 1991-2020.  I merged the data for multiple stations together before calculating the average low for the following areas: Lakeland, Kenansville, Okeechobee, Clewiston, Duck Key, Winter Haven, St. Pete Albert Whitted, Oasis Ranger Station, Pompano Beach, Appalachicola Airport, Tallahassee Airport, Cross City Airport .  It won't be very different unless you had a low in December that was lower than last winter.

 

202105142205_NOAA_Stations_Zones_1991-2020.xlsx

[JLM]

15 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

All,

Attached is the spreadsheet including the available data from 1991-2020.  I merged the data for multiple stations together before calculating the average low for the following areas: Lakeland, Kenansville, Okeechobee, Clewiston, Duck Key, Winter Haven, St. Pete Albert Whitted, Oasis Ranger Station, Pompano Beach, Appalachicola Airport, Tallahassee Airport, Cross City Airport .  It won't be very different unless you had a low in December that was lower than last winter.

 

202105142205_NOAA_Stations_Zones_1991-2020.xlsx 32.71 kB · 3 downloads

If i made a whole other map with this data, how different do you think it would be if any changes at all?

 

[kinzyjr]

47 minutes ago, JLM said:

If i made a whole other map with this data, how different do you think it would be if any changes at all?

 

I wouldn't bother.  If anything changes it would be one year (2020) out of 30.  Not enough to make a hill of beans worth the difference given it was an overall mild year.  I may have an edit you can make to the Polk county region to make the map you already made slightly more accurate, but I need to finish compiling the data I have from another source to support the changes.  They'll be modest changes, predominantly for the Lakeland, Bartow and Winter Haven triangle.

[kinzyjr]

@JLM

Here's something you may be able to model on your map.  I've calculated the average deviation of various WeatherUnderground stations from the NOAA station at Lakeland Linder.  This isn't a 100% perfect strategy given the number of variables, so I tried to go with a "preponderance of data" or consensus approach.  This comes out very similar to the map I posted on the Make Your Own Zone Map thread.  The data used to make the map is attached in Excel form.  The map key is below the map showing the color coding of each of the data points.

Here is the link to the map on Google Maps: https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1QCS-fTHGPmghnQJ7Q1phu7gSXSD6Rtxq&usp=sharing

202105151815_Lakeland_WU_StationDeviation.xlsx

[JLM]

On 5/15/2021 at 6:23 PM, kinzyjr said:

@JLM

Here's something you may be able to model on your map.  I've calculated the average deviation of various WeatherUnderground stations from the NOAA station at Lakeland Linder.  This isn't a 100% perfect strategy given the number of variables, so I tried to go with a "preponderance of data" or consensus approach.  This comes out very similar to the map I posted on the Make Your Own Zone Map thread.  The data used to make the map is attached in Excel form.  The map key is below the map showing the color coding of each of the data points.

Here is the link to the map on Google Maps: https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1QCS-fTHGPmghnQJ7Q1phu7gSXSD6Rtxq&usp=sharing

202105151815_Lakeland_WU_StationDeviation.xlsx 12.08 kB · 0 downloads

Tried my best to reflect this on the map. How far should 10a extend west from Winter Haven?

[Jimbean]

The zones should be redefined imo

I propose using 100 year averages and using the isotherms for zones:

9B 28F

10A 33F

10B 38F

11A 43F

ect.

[AnTonY]

50 minutes ago, Jimbean said:

The zones should be redefined imo

I propose using 100 year averages and using the isotherms for zones:

9B 28F

10A 33F

10B 38F

11A 43F

ect.

Why? Is this just for the US, or are you referring to the classification system in general?

Edited May 18, 2021 by AnTonY

[Jimbean]

1 hour ago, AnTonY said:

Why? Is this just for the US, or are you referring to the classification system in general?

Florida in particular. 

[kinzyjr]

16 hours ago, JLM said:

Tried my best to reflect this on the map. How far should 10a extend west from Winter Haven?

You did a really good job.  Please don't take my nitpick map as a critique.  Your map and Jim's are way better than I can do.  Here is a rough approximation of the mods you could make to Winter Haven.  To sum Polk County and the rest of the map up in general, I'd probably make "dots" on the map to represent the heat islands rather than extend it.  As Jim stated earlier, the issue is that there is no readily available long-term concrete data to justify our inference other than the anecdotal reports we've had over the years and us not seeing many tropicals in the rural areas outside the urban areas.

Here's my Winter Haven mod in yellow:

Here is a view with a small blob of 10a for Bartow and an Orlando UHI defined by the 429 and 417 toll roads.  The remainder of the area from west of I-95 to these areas I would probably go with 9b.  There are areas of 10a down around Sebring and Lake Placid.  They are typically on the east side of US-98 next to lakes.  @Walt and others from down that way would know better than me though.  Some of the folks from Orlando can chime in if they think I made the UHI too small/too large.  The data shows that the airports in Sanford, Orlando Exec. and Orlando International are all posting USDA 10a numbers for the last 30 years, so I tried to capture that along with the Kissimmee numbers and the lake modified climate in St. Cloud.

 

[kinzyjr]

7 hours ago, Jimbean said:

The zones should be redefined imo

I propose using 100 year averages and using the isotherms for zones:

9B 28F

10A 33F

10B 38F

11A 43F

ect.

Me and a colleague had a conversation the other day about how USDA zone 9 in particular has an enormous amount of change in what can grow at the bottom of the range vs. what can grow at the top.  Do you think it would work to use the 100 year averages and split the standard zones into 5 parts (ex. 9a = 20-21.9, 9b = 22-23.9, 9c = 24-25.9 , 9d = 26-27.9, 9e = 28-29.9)?  I saw a map on here at one time, but it is escaping me at the moment whether you or someone else posted it.

On that Google map I posted, there are additional layers for 50-year, 70-year, 100-year and All-Time zones.  The issue you start running into with 100 years is that there are only 83 stations that have records for 100+ years, and some of those are spotty (a lot of important dates missing). 

One way to compensate for this is by using composites.  So for example, the airport in Lakeland has records for 72 years.  I can use the records from Bartow for the years previous and for any missing days to give a better 100 year picture.  Same would go with Winter Haven.  We could probably get a solid 100-150 composite stations given some time to merge the data sets correctly.  This is something I've done in a few other data sets.

Another good example is Orlando.  There are a lot of missing days before 1998 for the executive airport.  If I merge with the International Airport records, it gives me a solid composite (but drops the average, perhaps somewhat incorrectly).

Any way you want to define a zone is fine with me.  If you just want a Google Map based on each station's data over 100 years, it's available here:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1QCS-fTHGPmghnQJ7Q1phu7gSXSD6Rtxq&usp=sharing

I have the data for each of the Google Maps in spreadsheet form, so if you need that, it's attached.

202012312345_ZoneMap_1991-2020.xlsx 202101010035_AllTimeZones.xlsx 202101010130_1871_2020.xlsx 202101010150_1920-2019_100yr_Zones.xlsx 202101010150_1950-2019_70yr_Zones.xlsx 202101010150_1970-2019_50yr_Zones.xlsx 202101010150_1990-2019_30yr_Zones.xlsx

[JLM]

5 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

You did a really good job.  Please don't take my nitpick map as a critique.  Your map and Jim's are way better than I can do.  Here is a rough approximation of the mods you could make to Winter Haven.  To sum Polk County and the rest of the map up in general, I'd probably make "dots" on the map to represent the heat islands rather than extend it.  As Jim stated earlier, the issue is that there is no readily available long-term concrete data to justify our inference other than the anecdotal reports we've had over the years and us not seeing many tropicals in the rural areas outside the urban areas.

Here's my Winter Haven mod in yellow:

Here is a view with a small blob of 10a for Bartow and an Orlando UHI defined by the 429 and 417 toll roads.  The remainder of the area from west of I-95 to these areas I would probably go with 9b.  There are areas of 10a down around Sebring and Lake Placid.  They are typically on the east side of US-98 next to lakes.  @Walt and others from down that way would know better than me though.  Some of the folks from Orlando can chime in if they think I made the UHI too small/too large.  The data shows that the airports in Sanford, Orlando Exec. and Orlando International are all posting USDA 10a numbers for the last 30 years, so I tried to capture that along with the Kissimmee numbers and the lake modified climate in St. Cloud.

 

Tried to reflect this as best as i could! Any recommended edits are welcome as long as they arent bias lol
Small spot for Bartow, Sebring, and Lake Placid. Medium spot for Winter Haven, and big blob for Orlando area.

[JLM]

Pitching an idea, if anybody can grab hold of 30 year info for any other state, i would gladly add those to the map as well.

 

[ruskinPalms]

On 5/18/2021 at 5:02 PM, kinzyjr said:

You did a really good job.  Please don't take my nitpick map as a critique.  Your map and Jim's are way better than I can do.  Here is a rough approximation of the mods you could make to Winter Haven.  To sum Polk County and the rest of the map up in general, I'd probably make "dots" on the map to represent the heat islands rather than extend it.  As Jim stated earlier, the issue is that there is no readily available long-term concrete data to justify our inference other than the anecdotal reports we've had over the years and us not seeing many tropicals in the rural areas outside the urban areas.

Here's my Winter Haven mod in yellow:

Here is a view with a small blob of 10a for Bartow and an Orlando UHI defined by the 429 and 417 toll roads.  The remainder of the area from west of I-95 to these areas I would probably go with 9b.  There are areas of 10a down around Sebring and Lake Placid.  They are typically on the east side of US-98 next to lakes.  @Walt and others from down that way would know better than me though.  Some of the folks from Orlando can chime in if they think I made the UHI too small/too large.  The data shows that the airports in Sanford, Orlando Exec. and Orlando International are all posting USDA 10a numbers for the last 30 years, so I tried to capture that along with the Kissimmee numbers and the lake modified climate in St. Cloud.

 

Do you really think Bartow is 10A? The times I’ve been there, it did not look very 10A but that doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t. People in that area may not really be into tropicals like closer to the coasts. Is it at a higher elevation than the surrounding area with good cold air drainage?

[kinzyjr]

41 minutes ago, ruskinPalms said:

Do you really think Bartow is 10A? The times I’ve been there, it did not look very 10A but that doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t. People in that area may not really be into tropicals like closer to the coasts. Is it at a higher elevation than the surrounding area with good cold air drainage?

If I had to bet before I ran the NOAA numbers on whether the Bartow station would post numbers consistent with zone 10a for the 1991-2020 data set, I'd have placed my bet on "No".  That said, the data says my bet would have been a loss for the last 30 years:

This station holds its average pretty well over the course of time as well according to the data.  The station location can be observed here and does not have appreciable relief from the surrounding area: https://tinyurl.com/rmmhzb7v

There are only a few properties that take advantage of the unexpected mild climate on the south east quadrant of the city, and this is one (where I mistaked a really healthy Foxtail for a Royal):

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?/topic/58073-nice-royal-and-overall-property-in-bartow-fl/

[Walt]

On 5/18/2021 at 5:02 PM, kinzyjr said:

You did a really good job.  Please don't take my nitpick map as a critique.  Your map and Jim's are way better than I can do.  Here is a rough approximation of the mods you could make to Winter Haven.  To sum Polk County and the rest of the map up in general, I'd probably make "dots" on the map to represent the heat islands rather than extend it.  As Jim stated earlier, the issue is that there is no readily available long-term concrete data to justify our inference other than the anecdotal reports we've had over the years and us not seeing many tropicals in the rural areas outside the urban areas.

Here's my Winter Haven mod in yellow:

Here is a view with a small blob of 10a for Bartow and an Orlando UHI defined by the 429 and 417 toll roads.  The remainder of the area from west of I-95 to these areas I would probably go with 9b.  There are areas of 10a down around Sebring and Lake Placid.  They are typically on the east side of US-98 next to lakes.  @Walt and others from down that way would know better than me though.  Some of the folks from Orlando can chime in if they think I made the UHI too small/too large.  The data shows that the airports in Sanford, Orlando Exec. and Orlando International are all posting USDA 10a numbers for the last 30 years, so I tried to capture that along with the Kissimmee numbers and the lake modified climate in St. Cloud.

 

I say, properties surrounding the large lakes down here are a solid 10a,  and many winters are 10b.  While the S.E. sides of the lakes are the best, even the north end of lakes are 10a,  as the coldest nights are radiational with no wind.  The first nights of the cold fronts are windy, almost always from the N.W., but it never drops below freezing on these nights.  Further, the town of Lake Placid is definitely a solid 10a, being on high ground (lake Wales Ridge). I use Lake Placid Elementary School (on the Weatherunderground network) and its STEM weather station as my source for low temperatures. This past winter it only dropped below 40 degrees one time (37 degrees); it was 30 degrees at my place just down the hill.  

Edited May 19, 2021 by Walt
removal of YouTube link

[kinzyjr]

For those curious what the map would look like if we used the 100 year map and adjusted the zone cutoffs as suggested by @Jimbean:

    

[Jimbean]

21 hours ago, kinzyjr said:

For those curious what the map would look like if we used the 100 year map and adjusted the zone cutoffs as suggested by @Jimbean:

    

It looks a lot more like either my map or the 2012 map

[The7thLegend]

 

 

Some interesting full zone swings.

Edited May 22, 2021 by The7thLegend

[kinzyjr]

4 minutes ago, The7thLegend said:

Some interesting full zone swings.

There can be a lot of reasons for that happening with some regularity.  On this map, I went through and deleted three obviously spurious data points that had less than a year of data and were showing up as zone 12 or higher.  There are probably more I should remove.  The map could be a bit more accurate if I used more composite stations like I mentioned above.  There are maps that have some of the composites built on my Google Maps site.  An example from my 50-year map is the Lakeland Airport (KLAL) using two NOAA stations for different time frames {Fig 1} .  An example where I probably should have made a composite on the same map is the Orlando Executive Airport (KORL) {Fig 2}.  It only has 27 out of the 50 years, so the average and zone for those 50 years is misleading.  I could grab numbers from some other stations that are close by like Orlando West or Orlando International to fill in the gaps.  The figures might be skewed, but it would still paint a more accurate picture than having too few years in most cases.

[Jimbean]

11 hours ago, The7thLegend said:

 

 

Some interesting full zone swings.

Also if you look at the individual stations, notice the number of years recorded.  One also needs to adjust for average temperature difference for stations with less than, say 50 years of data with stations that have more than 50 years of data.  Basically that's what I did plus added more weight to record lows, and adjusted for urban heat island effect, and that's how I got my map.

[RedRabbit]

On 5/19/2021 at 6:05 PM, kinzyjr said:

If I had to bet before I ran the NOAA numbers on whether the Bartow station would post numbers consistent with zone 10a for the 1991-2020 data set, I'd have placed my bet on "No".  That said, the data says my bet would have been a loss for the last 30 years:

This station holds its average pretty well over the course of time as well according to the data.  The station location can be observed here and does not have appreciable relief from the surrounding area: https://tinyurl.com/rmmhzb7v

There are only a few properties that take advantage of the unexpected mild climate on the south east quadrant of the city, and this is one (where I mistaked a really healthy Foxtail for a Royal):

https://www.palmtalk.org/forum/index.php?/topic/58073-nice-royal-and-overall-property-in-bartow-fl/

I don’t know @kinzyjr... If Bartow is 10a then Siesta Key might have to be 11a since the flora is totally different between them. I’m not saying Siesta is really 11a, but it’s got to be a full zone warmer than Bartow.

On 5/20/2021 at 10:41 PM, kinzyjr said:

For those curious what the map would look like if we used the 100 year map and adjusted the zone cutoffs as suggested by @Jimbean:

    

That actually turned out pretty good. 

[kinzyjr]

3 hours ago, RedRabbit said:

I don’t know @kinzyjr... If Bartow is 10a then Siesta Key might have to be 11a since the flora is totally different between them. I’m not saying Siesta is really 11a, but it’s got to be a full zone warmer than Bartow.

That actually turned out pretty good. 

From my viewpoint, whatever zone assignments are put on a map are good with me.  I'm more of a numbers guy.   A map could have Bartow as 8b because it has a record low of 18F and Lakeland at 9a because it has a record low of 20F and I'd be OK with that LOL.  Joking aside, the zones on the 1991-2020 map are going to be artificially high since the winters after the 2018 advective freeze have been much higher than the old averages. 

Probably no one was more surprised when the average of 32.3F came up for Bartow than I was, but the station does have over 100 years of very good data.  A 98% overall fill rate from 1892 forward is among the better rates for records that old, and the records for the 30 year data set are at 93%.  Since the data wasn't a full 100%, I did some analytics on it and found the years where there was any missing data.  If there was data missing, I substituted the numbers from the Lakeland Airport.  These are the results:

 

[Steve in Florida]

There's a huge anomaly from the NOAA Tarpon Springs, FL data.  They reported low of 26F on 12/18/20 and 24F on 12/26/20.  Closeby Weatherunderground stations reported 39-40F and 35-38F on those dates