Rest of Winter to April forecast from Weather ch.

[Paradise Found]

Not bad for most of the country except PNW which will be slightly below average in February.

[PalmTreeDude]

Hopefully it turns out to be a warm spring, unlike last year. 

[AnTonY]

@PalmTreeDude

This looks like it's going to be a repeat of 2012, if I have it correct.

[Paradise Found]

All this winter I have not gone below 30F, so this coming February will most likely change that, will just have to see how cold it gets.  Finger crossed not to bad...

[RedRabbit]

Looks like we can start planting soon here. 

[Paradise Found]

Crazy weather last night... who do I believe the airport (always super cold) 21F @ 8 am... Closes PWS 28F and at my place back porch facing north is 31F. So which one do I believe?  Well my basjoos are still green so I'm going by my temps.

Sunny and frost on cars windshields & roof tops in the shade. Tonight light rain and upper 30's and rain for the next 10 days. 

[palmsOrl]

Well this is good news.  Dare I say we are in the clear for the rest of the winter?

[Chester B]

I hope they’re wrong about Feb. I could use a change from the 45-50f we’ve been experiencing the last 3 months. Usually we got some 60s in Feb and I’d hate to miss out on that. Fortunately the winter has been pretty mild here only dropping to 29f two or three nights this year. Spring starts earlier here so we’ve pretty much have winter behind us at this point. 

[Silas_Sancona]

5 minutes ago, Chester B said:

I hope they’re wrong about Feb. I could use a change from the 45-50f we’ve been experiencing the last 3 months. Usually we got some 60s in Feb and I’d hate to miss out on that. Fortunately the winter has been pretty mild here only dropping to 29f two or three nights this year. Spring starts earlier here so we’ve pretty much have winter behind us at this point. 

While of low value as well, Accuweather just posted their thoughts about spring.   Pac. N.W. may stay cool/ maybe wet until  ....April. 

 

[Paradise Found]

1 hour ago, Silas_Sancona said:

While of low value as well, Accuweather just posted their thoughts about spring.   Pac. N.W. may stay cool/ maybe wet until  ....April. 

 

In that case that mean lots of rain and cloudcover which should keep us warmer at night.  Although Feb can be the coldest month sometimes once pass Feb 15, no killing freezes, March no killing freezes but light ones can happen.  April rainy no frost what so ever. 

[Paradise Found]

Here is the newest February Cold Map just released today. 

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/february-temperature-outlook-released

[ColdBonsai]

1 hour ago, Paradise Found said:

Here is the newest February Cold Map just released today. 

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/february-temperature-outlook-released

Feb will be interesting. Yesterday they were forecasting lows of 19 degrees for next week, and today they aren't predicting anything below 32.  A 13 degree change in a day.

Edited January 31, 2021 by ColdBonsai

[Tropicdoc]

This thread exemplifies why I don’t believe any of those long range forecast models. Exact area predicted to “warmer than average” is going to see record breaking cold this week!

[JLM]

24 minutes ago, Tropicdoc said:

This thread exemplifies why I don’t believe any of those long range forecast models. Exact area predicted to “warmer than average” is going to see record breaking cold this week!

I see your point, but, if the month averages above average, then the forecast verified to some extent.
Above average does not always gaurantee above average temps 100% of the time, there can still be cold events. 

[Chester B]

It's right on for us.  Below average for sure, plus we're in the middle of possibly the biggest winter storm ever in February for this part of the country.  At least that's what the weather guys are saying.

[chinandega81]

It was also dead wrong for Florida. We were supposed to have a warm winter and it has been consistently cool until this past week. Just because it's a la niña year doesn't mean it will automatically be warm. Too many other factors popped up late and they didn't modify their prediction or forecast to reflect them.

[Silas_Sancona]

2 hours ago, Tropicdoc said:

This thread exemplifies why I don’t believe any of those long range forecast models. Exact area predicted to “warmer than average” is going to see record breaking cold this week!

Have to agree here.. As optimistic as i was going in.. let alone carefully analyzing ( ...and frequently re- analyzing ) every predictive model i ( and anyone else ) have access to along the way,  NONE of the predictions for a " typical " La Nina winter have played out on script, on a large scale, esp. in the east.. Not that this is unusual since small, un -anticipated changes can pretty much obliterate a forecast, but thinking, overall, this winter's forecast may have missed some important signals that were lurking earlier on, despite some pretty strong signals seeing a different outcome.. While not done, would personally give the season a C- when looking at the big picture *at this point* myself.  Just my thoughts..

While it hasn't exactly been " cold " here, the month might average just above normal, not quite as warm as this forecast -and most others were suggesting, despite the scattered warm days here and there across the season...  Winter 2017-18 was far warmer/ drier ( and it's dry atm as well ) Everywhere east and south of AZ?,  forget the " much above normal "  suggestion by this TWC forecast. It would have to be HOT across the this area -for the rest of the month- to counter-balance ( and exceed ) the degree of cold occurring -and forecast near-term- for many places, esp. Texas for their call of " Above Average " to pan out.  Just don't see that happening. 

As far as March?... and/or April?  We might get hot, but " Spring Heat " isn't all that unusual these days in the low desert. Think the idea of " very much above average " for West TX, N.M. Colorado and southeastern parts of WY,  western areas of Neb., and KS. might be a tad exaggerated.. But, like thoughts on this winter, anything could happen..